1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating is neutral; the recommendation for the PL01 - 02 inter - period is reverse arbitrage; there is no recommendation for cross - variety [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - side start - up has increased slightly month - on - month. Although the maintenance plan of Shandong Zhenhua previously supported prices, the new production capacity of a 280,000 - ton K - COT device in Shandong was released, and the Tianhong PDH device is expected to restart. With the continuous increase in supply, the propylene price continued to be weakly sorted. The downstream start - up showed a mixed trend. The profit of propylene oxide dropped significantly, and its start - up also declined. The start - up of butanol decreased significantly, while the start - up of octanol increased rapidly. The start - up of the main downstream PP increased slightly, but the purchasing enthusiasm was not strong, and the start - up of the PP downstream was also weak. Overall, the downstream demand for propylene provided a small - scale, phased support, but the resilience was still insufficient. Later, attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of the main downstream industries during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The cost of crude oil weakened, and the decline in Saudi CP drove down the propane price, resulting in a downward shift in the cost support for propylene [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the propylene basis in East China and North China, the propylene 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices of propylene in East China and Shandong [7][10][13] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It covers figures on the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the capacity utilization of the main crude oil refineries [18][25][32] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents figures on the price differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39] 3.4 Profit and Capacity Utilization of Propylene Downstream Industries - It includes figures on the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][42][56][65] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The report has figures on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67][68]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is rated as neutral [3] Core View - The EG price is fluctuating without a clear driving force. In the spot and futures markets, the closing price of the EG main contract and the spot price in the East China market both decreased slightly. The production profit of ethylene - made EG and coal - made syngas EG increased slightly. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly. The domestic supply is on an increasing trend, but overseas device operation is not smooth, and the increase in port inventory is lower than expected. The overall supply - demand contradiction in August is not significant [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,406 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton (-0.59%) from the previous trading day. The EG spot price in the East China market was 4,488 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton (-0.40%) from the previous trading day. The EG spot basis in the East China market (based on the 2509 contract) was 76 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 46 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The production profit of coal - made syngas EG was - 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. Domestically, the load of ethylene glycol syngas production has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Non - coal EO - EG co - production devices have actions/plans to switch from EO to EG, with a moderately high overall load [1][2] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on international price differences are provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - In July, the terminal conducted centralized restocking, and the inventory pressure of filament was greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 55.3 tons, an increase of 3.7 tons from the previous period. According to Longzhong data, it was 48.6 tons, an increase of 5.9 tons from the previous period. The total actual arrival at the main ports last week was 9.6 tons, and the port inventory increased slightly. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 14.1 tons, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory slightly. The balance sheet in August shows a slight inventory accumulation, but the increase in port inventory lacks sustainability [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, under continuous low processing margins, there have been more changes in PTA plants recently. However, in terms of price, the cost side lacks support and the downstream polyester demand is average during the off - season. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term and the spot basis will stabilize, with attention to subsequent PTA plant and downstream polyester load changes [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory will be adjusted widely this month, and the increase is not sustainable. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol will be basically balanced from August to September, and the demand support will gradually strengthen over time. The fundamental structure of ethylene glycol is neutral to positive, and it is expected that the short - term low - level support of ethylene glycol will be strong, with attention to plant changes [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the content 3.2. Daily Reminders - Not provided in the content 3.3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4. Fundamental Data PTA - **Price**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, with individual polyester factories replenishing goods. The spot basis was stable. The price negotiation range of August goods was around 4,675 - 4,710, and today's mainstream spot basis is 09 - 13. The processing fee decreased from 439.48 yuan/ton to 154.49 yuan/ton [5][12]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The PTA supply - demand balance table shows the production, consumption, and inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, with fluctuations in supply and demand and inventory [10]. MEG - **Price**: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened. The spot negotiation was around a premium of 75 - 78 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The price of ethylene glycol in the night session fluctuated narrowly. The internal - market price index of ethylene glycol decreased from 4,202 yuan/ton to 4,482 yuan/ton [7][12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance table shows the production, consumption, and inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, with changes in supply and demand and inventory [11]. 3.5. PTA Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday, with average spot market negotiation and stable basis [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,692, and the 09 contract basis is 0, indicating the spot price is at par with the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory decreased, showing a bullish signal [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position decreased, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Expectation**: The PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will stabilize [5]. 3.6. MEG Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened on Wednesday, with average market negotiation [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,488, and the 09 contract basis is 82, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: The East China port inventory increased, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position increased, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Expectation**: The port inventory will be adjusted widely this month, and the supply - demand structure will be basically balanced from August to September. The short - term low - level support of ethylene glycol is expected to be strong [6]. 3.7. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Some PTA plants are planned for maintenance in August, which is expected to improve the supply - demand situation [8]. - **Negative Factors**: At the demand end, with the end of the export rush and the off - season of domestic demand, the terminal demand is definitely weakening [8]. 3.8. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9].

Group 1: Methanol Market Analysis - The methanol market is experiencing stable supply due to reduced maintenance plans by methanol companies, despite general downstream demand support being weak [1] - Market pressure is increasing with port inventories continuing to accumulate, leading to a short-term consolidation phase [1] - Support levels are identified at 2350 - 2370, while resistance is noted at 2430 - 2450 [1] Group 2: PVC Market Analysis - The PVC market is facing insufficient cost support, with industry operating rates recovering and supply being ample [1] - Weak demand has led to a significant increase in social inventory, resulting in a lack of fundamental drivers for price movement [1] - Support levels are observed at 4950 - 4960, with resistance at 5100 - 5150 [1] Group 3: Urea Market Analysis - Urea production remains high, leading to ample supply but insufficient demand, which continues to exert pressure on the market [1] - There is a cautious expectation for demand improvement, with support levels at 1680 - 1700 and potential resistance at 1800 - 1830 [1] - The market is currently in a low-level consolidation phase [1] Group 4: Caustic Soda Market Analysis - Caustic soda companies are maintaining decent profitability, but high capacity utilization is leading to increased supply [1] - Downstream demand is limited, resulting in continuous accumulation of plant inventories [1] - Support levels are identified at 2400 - 2430, with resistance at 2530 - 2550 [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral, with attention on the cost side of crude oil and macro - sentiment changes [4] 2) Core Viewpoints - **Cost - end**: Attention should be paid to the US - Russia leaders' meeting on August 15th, Trump's stance on sanctions against Russia, and the attitude towards extending tariffs on China on August 12th. In the medium - term, as global refineries reach the peak of annual operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift between strength and weakness. With new supplies from Latin America and the North Sea entering the market, the oil market will decline in the second half of the year, unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia [1] - **PX**: The PXN was $261/ton (a month - on - month change of - $8.50/ton). China's PX load will gradually recover, and with the commissioning of MX, the supply is abundant. The PX supply is expected to increase, but the increase is limited. The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to a loose balance, but PX is still in a low - inventory state. There is support at the lower end of PXN, but the floating price of PX has recently shown signs of weakness [1] - **TA**: The spot basis of the TA main contract is - 12 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 6 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 171 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 7 yuan/ton), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 372 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 2 yuan/ton). Due to the concentrated raw material replenishment by terminal weaving, the inventory pressure of filament has been significantly reduced, and the polyester load remains strong in the short term. However, major suppliers are actively selling, which suppresses prices. PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August, and the circulating supply is abundant with the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts [2] - **Demand**: The polyester operating rate is 88.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.7%). Driven by the anti - involution sentiment in late July, terminal weaving concentrated on raw material replenishment, and the weaving and texturing loads rebounded. But the demand has not improved substantially, and it is just a transfer of inventory. The industry is still facing poor orders and inventory build - up. The weaving load decreased again this week, waiting for the improvement of seasonal peak - season orders, which may start gradually in late August. The polyester load remains strong in the short term, with a slight increase this week. For different products, the pressure on cotton - type short - fiber factories is acceptable, while the pressure on hollow and low - melting - point products is relatively large, with a slight reduction in production. After the phased destocking of filament inventory, the short - term production reduction pressure is relieved, and the load may even be increased. For bottle chips, the maintenance plans of several major manufacturers have been gradually implemented, and the load is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a possible increase in late August or September [2] - **PF**: The spot production profit is 78 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 36 yuan/ton). Due to the high inventory of yarn mills and limited improvement in downstream orders, market confidence is still lacking, and the processing margin remains in the range of 900 - 1000 yuan/ton. The demand for PF has improved slightly but is still limited, and the near - month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts [3] - **PR**: The spot processing fee for bottle chips is 407 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 25 yuan/ton). It is reported that the main polyester bottle - chip factories will continue to maintain production reduction or shutdown in August, with no plans to increase or restart production for the time being. The bottle - chip load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the spot processing fee for bottle chips is expected to recover as the production reduction and shutdown are extended [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - Figures show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][35] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rates, and filament profits [51][53][62] PF Detailed Data - Figures show polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type short - fiber load, pure - polyester yarn operating rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][79][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [87][90][94]

| Millio | ER FRING | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年08月07日 | | 影丙烯 | 女女女 | 塑料 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | ☆☆☆ | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | РХ | ☆☆☆ | PTA | ☆☆☆ | | | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | 短纤 | な女女 | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 瓶片 | ☆☆☆ | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | PVC | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 烧碱 | ★☆★ | 纯碱 | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 玻璃 | な女女 | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 聚烯烃期货主力合约延续低位区间整理格局。聚乙烯方面,月内新增检修装置不 ...

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 5.36% due to supply-side disruptions, leading the domestic commodity market [2] - Reports indicate that some lithium mines in Jiangxi are facing environmental and mining permit issues, potentially leading to short-term production halts [2] - The current market sentiment is mixed, with expectations of supply disruptions continuing to influence prices, while long-term oversupply remains a concern [2] Group 2: Jujube Market - Jujube futures experienced a rapid increase, peaking at a 4% gain before closing up by 2.29%, supported by weather changes in production areas and reduced yield expectations [3] - Market sentiment remains divided regarding production forecasts, indicating uncertainty in the overall market outlook [3] Group 3: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon prices have entered a phase of fluctuation after a previous surge, with increased production capacity expected to lead to higher inventory pressures [4] - The demand outlook for the second half of the year is limited due to earlier consumption during the solar installation rush, impacting future price movements [4] - Potential industry consolidation or production adjustments could improve the operational environment and support price recovery [4] Group 4: Caustic Soda Market - Caustic soda futures are underperforming, with inventory levels rising by 8.84% week-on-week, indicating increased selling pressure for enterprises [5] - As of August 7, the inventory of caustic soda in sample enterprises reached 46.17 million tons, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase [5] - Regional variations in inventory levels are noted, with some areas experiencing upward trends due to market pressures and demand fluctuations [5]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The port accelerated inventory accumulation this week. Overseas methanol production remained at a high level, increasing the pressure of arrivals in August. The Xingxing MTO device in the port area started a one - month maintenance at the end of July. In the inland area, there will still be some maintenance in the northwest in August, and the production will not fully recover until late August. The traditional downstream demand showed certain resilience, and the inventory of inland methanol factories decreased further. Overall, the inland market was stronger than the port market [3] Group 2: Market Data Inland Market - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal was 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 695 yuan/ton (+25). The inland methanol prices varied by region: Inner Mongolia North Line was 2110 yuan/ton (+25), Inner Mongolia South Line was 2100 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Linyi was 2383 yuan/ton (+10), Henan was 2250 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Hebei was 2275 yuan/ton (+25). The inland factory inventory was 293,688 tons (-30,832), and the northwest factory inventory was 185,500 tons (-30,500). The inland factory's pending orders were 240,800 tons (+10,075), and the northwest factory's pending orders were 122,800 tons (+10,800) [1] Port Market - The methanol price in Taicang was 2388 yuan/ton (+15), the basis was - 8 yuan/ton (+16), CFR China was 268 US dollars/ton (+1), and the import price difference in East China was 13 yuan/ton (-3). The port inventory increased, with the total port inventory at 925,480 tons (+117,080), Jiangsu port inventory at 498,000 tons (+79,000), Zhejiang port inventory at 144,000 tons (-9000), and Guangdong port inventory at 170,000 tons (+15,000). The downstream MTO operating rate was 85.27% (+0.32%) [2] Regional Price Differences - There were various regional price differences, such as the Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference of - 45 yuan/ton (-25), the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 price difference of - 272 yuan/ton (-10), etc [2] Group 3: Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage when the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread is high - Cross - variety: Shrink the PP2601 - 3MA2601 spread when it is high [4] Group 4: Report Directory Summary Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report included multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spread, such as the methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][22][24] Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures related to production profit (e.g., Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit), MTO profit (e.g., East China MTO profit), and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference) were presented [26][34] Methanol Production and Inventory - Figures showed methanol port inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory inventory, and China's methanol operating rate [36][38] Regional Price Differences - Figures presented various regional price differences, such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc [44][48][51] Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures showed the production profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE, and Henan dimethyl ether [52][60]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol (EG) rebounded due to the rebound of coking coal prices and the poor restart of overseas Saudi Arabian plants. The supply is in an increasing trend, but the restart of overseas plants is not smooth, and the increase of port inventory is less than expected. Under low inventory, attention should be paid to cost changes [1][3] - In terms of overall fundamentals, the domestic supply load of ethylene glycol synthesis gas has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production units are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the supply of long - distance goods is expected to gradually return to normal. In July, the terminal replenished inventory, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term. In early August, there will be a small inventory build - up, and the port inventory is expected to remain low and rise slightly [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,414 yuan/ton (a change of +15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a range of +0.34%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,493 yuan/ton (a change of +33 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a range of +0.74%), and the East China spot basis of EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 80 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 48 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 0 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was - 11 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - In July, the terminal replenished inventory intensively, and the inventory pressure of filament was greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 51.6 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 42.7 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 4.8 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.3 tons, lower than the planned value. The port inventory decreased slightly last week. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 13.8 tons, and it is expected that the inventory at the main ports will increase this week [1] - The overall balance sheet shows a small inventory build - up at the beginning of August, and the port inventory is expected to remain low and rise slightly [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - PTA: Recently, the macro atmosphere has cooled, commodities have corrected, and the cost - end support is insufficient. The downstream terminal is in the off - season with weak demand. Although there have been many changes in PTA devices recently, the spot market has sufficient liquidity and lacks upward drivers. However, as the basis weakens, the buying sentiment of traders has slightly recovered, and the downward space is limited. Also, the PTA processing margin was once compressed below 200 this week, and attention should be paid to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - MEG: This week, the arrival of foreign MEG vessels is relatively concentrated, and the visible inventory is expected to increase periodically. In August, the MEG fundamentals are mainly in a loose balance. The restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II 1 is moderately postponed to around the middle of the month, and the increase in domestic output is delayed. It is expected that MEG will be mainly in a wide - range adjustment in the short term. Currently, the port inventory is low, and attention should be paid to the cost - end and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 No relevant information provided. 2.每日提示 - PTA: - Fundamentals: The news of Ineos reducing its load during the day boosted the market, and combined with the warming of the commodity atmosphere, the PTA futures market rose rapidly and finally closed up in a volatile manner. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was okay, the spot basis was weak, and a small number of polyester factories made bids. The mainstream suppliers offered August goods. There were transactions at a discount of 20 - 25 to the 09 contract for the middle and early August, and at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract for the late August, with the price negotiation range around 4650 - 4720. The suppliers' August goods were traded at a discount of 20 to the 09 contract. The goods in mid - September were traded at a premium of 0 to the 09 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is at a discount of 21 to the 09 contract [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4675, the basis of the 09 contract is - 49, and the futures is at a discount to the spot [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared with the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main positions: Net short positions, and short positions increased [6]. - MEG: - Fundamentals: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol remained firm at a high level, and the market transactions were okay. The night - session of ethylene glycol opened higher and consolidated. The spot negotiation was at a premium of 78 - 81 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. During the day, the ethylene glycol market was strong. Traders in the market actively participated in contract replenishment. In the afternoon, the basis of the far - month futures weakened. In terms of US dollars, the center of the ethylene glycol overseas market rose slightly. The mainstream negotiation of recent shipments was at 525 - 530 US dollars/ton, and the shipments during the day were traded at around 526 - 529 US dollars/ton. The inquiry intention in the market was okay. The Taiwan tender goods were traded at around 532 US dollars/ton, with a cargo volume of 3000 tons [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4493, the basis of the 09 contract is 79, and the futures is at a discount to the spot [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared with the previous period [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main positions: The main net short positions, and short positions decreased [7]. 3.今日关注 No relevant information provided. 4.基本面数据 - PTA supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - Ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. 5.影响因素总结 - Bullish factors: Some PTA devices are planned to be overhauled in August, and the supply - demand expectation is improved [8]. - Bearish factors: From the demand side, at the end of the export rush + domestic off - season, the downward trend of terminal demand is certain [8]. 6.当前主要逻辑和风险点 Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost - end, and the upper resistance level should be noted when the market rebounds [9].