Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The unexpected decline in the US PPI data has temporarily alleviated market concerns about US inflation. Combined with the weakening of the US non - farm employment data, the market's expectation of multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed this year has been further strengthened, and precious metals continue to trade near historical highs. The upcoming US CPI data may affect the subsequent rate - cut amplitude and bring new fluctuations to the market [2][3]. - For various metals, their market trends are influenced by factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes. Each metal has its own trading strategy based on its specific situation. 3. Summary by Metal Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Market Review**: London gold rose 0.45% to $3639.81/oz, and London silver rose 0.57% to $41.14/oz. The US dollar index rose 0.07% to 97.81, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.044%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.06% to 7.1207. In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.21% to 835.16 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.47% to 9817 yuan/kg [2]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI annual rate was 2.6%, a new low since June, and the monthly rate was - 0.1%. The Trump administration's actions and the Fed's possible rate - cut probability are also important factors [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The unexpected decline in PPI and the weak labor market data have strengthened the market's expectation of rate cuts, and precious metals continue to trade near historical highs. The upcoming CPI data may affect the rate - cut amplitude [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For Shanghai gold, continue to hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average; for Shanghai silver, consider lightly testing long positions based on the 5 - day moving average. Adopt a bullish collar option strategy and wait and see for arbitrage [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80190 yuan/ton, up 0.64%, and the LME copper closed at $10012/ton, up 0.96%. The LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 15.50 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1010 tons to 30.87 million tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI was lower than expected, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released, and Peru's copper production in July increased year - on - year [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in US PPI and weak employment data have increased the market's expectation of rate cuts. The supply of copper is tight due to production accidents, and the domestic refined copper production in September is expected to decline, but imports increase. The terminal consumption is weak, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [7][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider laying out long positions after a callback, conduct inter - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of the alumina 2510 contract rose 10 yuan to 2915 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions decreased [12]. - **Important Information**: The approval of an Indian bauxite mining project was postponed, which may affect the production of an alumina plant. There were spot alumina procurement tenders by electrolytic aluminum enterprises, and the industry's average profit in August increased [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The oversupply of alumina is more obvious in the spot market, and the prices are falling. The supply is flowing from the north to the south, and the fundamental weakness remains. However, beware of the interference of "anti - involution" sentiment on prices [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to run weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 40 to 20390 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [17]. - **Important Information**: Policy changes in the recycling of aluminum, such as tax refund and reverse invoicing compliance, have affected some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi. The industry's average cost and profit in August were calculated, and the inventory in some regions increased [17][18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy changes have affected the supply of scrap aluminum. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the supply is tightening. The alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [21][22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract rose 45 yuan to 20830 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in different regions decreased [24]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI data, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and some overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum projects had new developments [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market's expectation of rate cuts is rising. The fundamentals are supportive with increased aluminum - water conversion rate, decreased ingot production, and improved downstream开工率. Overseas projects' progress needs attention [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price will fluctuate with the external market in the short term. Consider going long after a callback. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [27]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc rose 0.72% to $2887.5/ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.34% to 22245 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was average [29]. - **Important Information**: The CZSPT set the import zinc concentrate processing fee guidance range for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. The domestic zinc inventory increased, and a company's production data was disclosed [29][30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic zinc smelting production may decline slightly in September, but the consumption is weak, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The LME inventory is decreasing and has a certain support for the price [31][33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and consider lightly laying out short positions at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [33]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead rose 0.53% to $1988.5/ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.03% to 16845 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was weak [35]. - **Important Information**: The domestic lead inventory increased, and a battery manufacturer planned to expand production, and a smelter was about to resume production [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The reduction and shutdown of domestic lead smelters due to losses and weak consumption may lead to a weak supply - demand pattern in the short term, and the price will continue to fluctuate [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai lead price may move sideways in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel rose $65 to $15170/ton, and the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 290 to 120780 yuan/ton. The spot premiums remained stable [39]. - **Important Information**: SMM predicted the increase of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore prices, and national economic and social development policies were reported [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weak US employment data and high supply growth rate limit the upward space of nickel prices, and the price trend is weak [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [40][42]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract rose 20 to 12845 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported. The inventory in Foshan decreased [44]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel deep - processing project was approved, and the market was worried about recession risks despite the Fed's expected rate cut [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's expected rate cut in September and weak domestic consumption growth, combined with supply pressure, are expected to keep the stainless - steel price in a wide - range fluctuation pattern [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 1.58% to 8665 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [47][49]. - **Important Information**: National economic and social development policies were reported [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand of industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state. The low inventory of manufacturers and high acceptance of high - price silicon by downstream enterprises provide support for price increases. The silicon industry conference may bring good news [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and participate in the reverse arbitrage of the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract fell 4.40% to 52885 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of some products decreased [52]. - **Important Information**: National economic and social development policies were reported. The silicon wafer production in September increased, and the polysilicon production was expected to remain stable. The industry's total inventory was high [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, but the short - term 11th contract may face a callback due to factors such as futures premium and concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation. After a callback and stabilization, long positions are recommended [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in long positions after a callback and stabilization, conduct reverse arbitrage of the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy wide - straddle options for profit - taking [54]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract fell 3620 to 70720 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of electric and industrial carbonate decreased [56]. - **Important Information**: Shanghai's new energy power - grid price reform policy and national fiscal policy information were reported [56][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand of lithium carbonate is still tight in the short term, and the price has technical support. However, the long - term oversupply is difficult to reverse [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai tin 2510 contract rose 0.93% to 271990 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable. The trading volume was acceptable [60]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI data, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released, and the domestic refined tin production in August decreased [60][62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in US PPI has strengthened the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the traditional consumption season may be postponed. The LME and domestic inventories have changed [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price will be boosted in the short term due to the strengthened Fed rate - cut expectation. Wait and see for options [63].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that U.S. investor interest in the Chinese market has reached its highest level since 2021, with over 90% of investors expressing willingness to increase exposure to China [1] - BlackRock indicates that AI-driven U.S. tech stocks will remain a global investment focus, while Chinese tech stocks are attracting more overseas investor attention due to significant valuation gaps and favorable industry conditions [2] - Citigroup's CEO expresses optimism about the Middle East's growth over the next decade, driven by investment inflows and emerging industries, while noting that the U.S. is unlikely to enter a recession [4] Group 2 - Fitch raises global GDP growth expectations but notes a slowdown in the U.S. economy and labor market, projecting global growth to decline from 2.9% last year to 2.4% this year [5] - Wells Fargo anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates five times before mid-2026, reflecting a soft labor market and stable inflation expectations [6] - CITIC Securities highlights a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical sector in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, suggesting a sustained upward trend in the medium to long term [8] - CITIC Securities expects the "pig cycle" effect to weaken by September, aiding improvements in CPI readings [9] - Huatai Securities predicts an improvement in profitability for bulk chemical products, with downstream products likely to recover first [10] - Guosheng Securities emphasizes the shift towards genetically modified crops and high-yield varieties in China's seed industry, driven by national food security policies [11] - Guolian Minsheng Securities notes improving industry conditions in the cement sector, suggesting a focus on leading companies with advantageous valuations [12]

Group 1: Natural Resources and Land Use - The Ministry of Natural Resources encourages market-oriented methods to revitalize idle land and improve efficient land use [1] Group 2: Automotive Industry - In the first eight months of this year, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 20 million units for the first time, with production at 21.05 million and sales at 21.12 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively [2] - New energy vehicle production and sales reached 9.63 million units, accounting for 45.5% of total new car sales, with year-on-year growth of 37.3% and 36.7% [2] - Exports of automobiles reached 4.29 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, with new energy vehicle exports at 1.53 million units, up 87.3% [2] Group 3: Silicon Industry - TrendForce reports that despite high inventory levels of approximately 400,000 tons, expectations of production cuts in October due to dry weather in Sichuan and Yunnan are driving up multi-crystalline silicon prices [3] - The market focus has shifted from current inventory levels to future supply shortages, with downstream manufacturers actively purchasing [3] Group 4: Display Panel Market - The market for power management chips for large-sized display panels in mainland China is projected to grow to approximately 2.72 billion yuan by 2025, with a demand for about 1.13 billion units [4] Group 5: Healthcare and Technology - Researchers have developed a "nano-marking robot" for cancer immunotherapy, which shows promising results in tumor models and may lead to more effective next-generation therapies [5] - Alipay launched the first "AI payment" service in China, allowing users to place orders and make payments through an AI assistant [6] Group 6: Corporate Developments - Huang Junhong has resigned as the executive director of Huya, with Li Ping taking over [7] - Wanda Group has been executed for over 400 million yuan by the Beijing Financial Court [8] - CITIC Securities has received approval to publicly issue bonds totaling up to 60 billion yuan [9] - Chengdi Xiangjiang received a warning from the Shanghai Securities Regulatory Commission for inaccurate financial disclosures [10] - Western Gold's subsidiary will undergo maintenance, affecting production timelines [11] - Anhui Construction has won multiple major project bids totaling over 18.85 billion yuan [12][13] - Qinglong Pipe Industry has secured a project worth 87.34 million yuan [14] - Wuzhou Special Paper plans to increase capital by 780 million yuan for its subsidiary [15] - Changjiang Materials is set to invest up to 130 million yuan in oil and gas exploration [16] - Huakang Clean has won a hospital procurement project worth 50.07 million yuan [17] - Jilin Expressway's subsidiary has won a highway construction project worth 9.592 billion yuan [18] Group 7: Market Performance - The market saw a strong rebound with the ChiNext Index rising over 5%, marking a new high for the year, with over 4,200 stocks increasing in value [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in the short term but may face a risk of decline if polysilicon enterprises implement production cuts. The price of polysilicon is also in high - level consolidation, and the pressure to raise the spot price is large, which may suppress the futures market [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is increasing steadily, while the demand is mixed. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the terminal demand pressure is large [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.03% to 8,665 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: With the continuous rise of silicon prices, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In the southwest production area, the power cost has decreased during the wet season, and the enterprise operation rate has steadily increased [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans, which will bring some demand increments. The supply of organic silicon is temporarily tightened due to an accident at a large factory, but the supply pressure has increased recently. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. Investment Strategy - Overall, due to potential supply disturbances, the industrial silicon futures market strengthened again. It is expected that the silicon price will remain high in the short term. The trading strategy is to operate in the range, try to go long on dips, and consider participating in the reverse spread of contracts 2511 and 2512 [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - N - type dense material decreased 0.10% to 50.05 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material decreased 0.10% to 51.44 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material decreased 0.10% to 49.05 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 48.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased 3.93% to 53,520 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. It is expected that the output will increase slightly, approaching 110,000 tons in July and increasing to about 130,000 tons in August [1]. - Demand: Many upstream and downstream enterprises completed procurement and shipment before the end of August, the trading volume in the polysilicon market increased significantly, and the inventory decreased significantly. However, the terminal demand pressure is large, and the component price increase is difficult [1]. Investment Strategy - Overall, due to supply disturbances and high downstream raw material inventory, it is difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short term. The pressure to raise the spot price is large, which may suppress the futures market. The trading strategy is to take profit on previous long positions in a timely manner and try to go long on dips before the supply - side reform policy is implemented [1]. Other Information - On September 10, the State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Company issued a notice on the market - oriented reform of the new - energy on - grid electricity price. From January 2026, the on - grid electricity of new - energy projects in the city will enter the power market [1]. - On the evening of September 9, JinkoSolar (688223) announced that its subsidiary Zhejiang JinkoSolar Energy Co., Ltd. plans to sell 80% of the equity of its subsidiary Zhejiang JinkoSolar New Materials Co., Ltd. to Dico Co., Ltd. (300842) for 80 million yuan [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin. It points out that due to the weakness of the US labor market and potential tariff impacts, the "stagflation-like" risk remains, and precious metals are expected to maintain a strong performance at high levels. For other metals, factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomics, and geopolitical events are considered to determine their market trends and provide corresponding trading strategies [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold initially broke through the 3670 mark but then dropped, closing down 0.32% at $3624.17 per ounce; London silver closed down 1.13% at $40.86 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract reached a historical high and closed up 0.11% at 832.6 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract closed up 1.08% at 9760 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index closed up 0.33% at 97.77, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.0799%, and the RMB against the US dollar closed up 0.06% at 7.125 [3]. - **Important Information**: The US Supreme Court will hear Trump's tariff appeal case; the US economy may have added 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months ending in March than previously estimated; the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 93%, and Israel launched an attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weakness of the US labor market and geopolitical events led to the volatile trend of gold. Despite short - term fluctuations, precious metals are expected to remain strong at high levels due to the "stagflation - like" risk [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold existing long positions in gold against the 5 - day moving average; take profit on existing long positions in silver at high prices. Adopt a bullish collar option strategy and wait and see for arbitrage [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed down 0.14% at 79,600 yuan per ton, and the LME copper closed up 0.1% at $9916.5 per ton. The LME inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,200 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1917 tons to 307,600 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000; Anglo American agreed to merge with Teck Resources; a mining accident in the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia led to the suspension of operations [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's 9 - month interest rate cut is confirmed, but the market's concern about recession has increased. The supply of refined copper in September is expected to decline, and the inventory in non - US regions is accumulating slowly. The consumption shows a weakening trend, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term correction, pay attention to the support level of 78,500 yuan per ton and consider buying after the price stabilizes. Conduct cross - market positive arbitrage and cross - month arbitrage of buying 10 and selling 12. Wait and see for options [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc closed down 0.21% at $2867 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 closed down 0.32% at 22,130 yuan per ton. The domestic spot market trading was average [10]. - **Important Information**: The CZSPT issued the reference range for the import zinc concentrate processing fee for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025; the domestic zinc ingot inventory increased; Huayu Mining completed a certain amount of mining and metal production in the first half of 2025 [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic zinc smelting production may decline slightly in September, but the consumption is weaker than expected, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The LME zinc price is supported by inventory reduction [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Existing short positions can continue to be held, beware of the impact of funds on zinc prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [12]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead closed down 0.6% at $1978 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 closed down 0.56% at 16,820 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [14]. - **Important Information**: The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased; a lead - acid battery manufacturer in the southwest plans to start production in October; a large recycled lead smelter in the east is about to resume production [14][15]. - **Logic Analysis**: The reduction and suspension of production of domestic recycled lead smelters have increased, and the consumption is weak. The short - term supply and demand may maintain a double - weak pattern, and the Shanghai lead price will continue to fluctuate [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term Shanghai lead price may move sideways. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [16][18]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel price dropped to $15,105 per ton, and the inventory increased to 218,070 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2510 dropped to 120,400 yuan per ton [19]. - **Important Information**: Auric Mining completed a major acquisition of nickel mining rights [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The poor US employment data and the continuous increase in LME inventory indicate an oversupply of refined nickel in China. The supply growth rate in September is higher, and the upward space of nickel price is limited [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to be weak and volatile. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract dropped to 12,835 yuan per ton, and the spot market prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [23]. - **Important Information**: The US stainless steel price remained stable in August due to tariffs, and potential trade quota agreements may bring new variables [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September is rising, but the market is more worried about recession. The domestic consumption growth is limited, and the supply pressure is increasing [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless steel price will maintain a wide - range shock. Wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8410 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. The spot price was stable [26]. - **Important Information**: A 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project in Karamay is under investment promotion [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon remain in a tight - balance state. The price increase space is greater than the decrease space. The futures may continue to correct, and buying can be considered near the August low [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: There may be a short - term correction, buy after a full correction. Sell out - of - the - money put options and participate in the reverse arbitrage of 11 and 12 contracts [27][28]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 53,520 yuan per ton, down 0.73%. The spot prices of some types of polysilicon decreased [30]. - **Important Information**: The installed capacity of photovoltaic power in the US in the first half of 2025 accounted for 75% of the new power installed capacity [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for polysilicon in September is about 116,000 tons, and the production is expected to be around 130,000 tons. The long - term price trend is upward, but the short - term may correct [30][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in the correction band with a light position and short - term, and participate in long positions after the correction stabilizes. Conduct reverse arbitrage of 2511 and 2512 contracts and buy a wide - straddle option for profit - taking [31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract dropped to 72,900 yuan per ton, and the spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate remained unchanged [34]. - **Important Information**: The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers plans to establish a new energy vehicle battery branch; CATL launched a new battery technology; the export of new energy passenger vehicles in August increased year - on - year [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market interprets that CATL may resume production early, and the long - term trend will return to the logic of oversupply [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [37]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 269,040 yuan per ton, down 0.28%. The spot market trading was okay, but the market was skeptical about short - term consumption improvement [38]. - **Important Information**: The US non - farm employment was revised down [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The poor US non - farm data led to a weak trend of tin. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is expected to recover late. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and other factors [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price may be weak and volatile. Wait and see for options [39].

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon fundamentals have little change, with overall supply and demand basically balanced. It is expected to fluctuate following the overall commodity sentiment. The polysilicon market has a large - scale correction, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [2][4][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On September 9, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weak. The main contract 2511 opened at 8555 yuan/ton and closed at 8410 yuan/ton, a change of - 135 yuan/ton (- 1.58%) from the previous settlement. The main contract 2511 held 286040 positions, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49955, a change of 33 from the previous day [2] - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton. The price of 97 silicon also remained stable. Due to a 400 - yuan/ton increase in coal prices, the price of bonding silicon coal in Xinjiang rose by about 270 yuan/ton to 1600 - 1800 yuan/ton [2] - **Consumption Side**: The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 10500 - 10800 yuan/ton. Due to the non - appearance of the traditional "Golden September" peak season effect and the on - demand procurement strategy, the demand release was not concentrated, and the DMC price rebound faced resistance. In the short term, the domestic DMC price will mainly fluctuate slightly [3] Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 9, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2511 had a large - scale correction, opening at 55555 yuan/ton and closing at 53520 yuan/ton, a change of - 3.73% from the previous trading day. The main contract held 142980 positions (154011 in the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 584927 [5] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon slightly declined. The price of N - type material was 49.20 - 54.00 yuan/kg (- 0.05 yuan/kg), and n - type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 21.10, a change of - 0.90% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.85GW, a change of - 6.65% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon production was 30200.00 tons, a change of - 2.58% week - on - week, and the silicon wafer production was 13.78GW, a change of 3.53% week - on - week [5] - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.28 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.63 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.40 yuan/piece [5] - **Battery Cell**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.30 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [6] - **Component**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6] Strategy Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Neutral - **Cross - period**: None - **Cross - variety**: None - **Spot - futures**: None - **Options**: None [4] Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation - **Cross - period**: None - **Cross - variety**: None - **Spot - futures**: None - **Options**: None [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The equity market may enter a high - level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial. The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate in the 1.74% - 1.8% range [3]. - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited, causing precious metals to rise and then fall. The steel market is weak, while the iron ore market is strong. The copper market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The energy and chemical markets show various trends. For example, oil prices are supported by geopolitical risks but limited by a loose supply - demand situation. The agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and reports [3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.23%, - 0.11%, - 0.81%, and - 0.83% respectively. The market is supported by pro - cyclical factors and continues to oscillate [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to tight funds and concerns about increased fund redemption fees, the sentiment in the bond futures market is weak. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited. Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver should be traded in the $40 - 42 range [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of the container shipping index (European Line) is weakly oscillating, and 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices have weakened. Long positions should be closed and wait for further observation. The support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are around 3100 and 3300 respectively [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and the price is strong. Long positions can be taken at low prices in the 780 - 830 range [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is weakly oscillating. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be used [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts for coke has been implemented. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to inflation data on Thursday. The main contract is expected to trade between 78500 - 80500 [3]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The processing industry's weekly operating rate is recovering. The main contracts of aluminum, aluminum alloy, etc. have their respective expected trading ranges [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel also have their expected price ranges and corresponding market trends [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support the rebound of oil prices, but the loose supply - demand situation limits the upside. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [3]. - **Urea**: The consumption in industry and agriculture is not obvious, and the market is expected to continue to be weak in the short term. A short - selling strategy can be considered, and the implied volatility can be reduced at high levels on the options side [3]. - **PX, PTA, and Related Products**: PX and PTA have different supply - demand expectations in September. They should be traded within their respective price ranges, and some spread arbitrage strategies can be used [3]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Ethanol, caustic soda, PVC, etc. also have their own market trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the market, but the domestic market has a bullish expectation. Long positions can be taken for the 01 contract in the long term [3]. - **Livestock and Grains**: The supply pressure of pigs is realized, and the corn market has limited rebound. Palm oil may be strong, and sugar is expected to be weak [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Cotton, eggs, apples, etc. also have their own market characteristics and trading suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the market. Wait and see the actual progress [3]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and the rubber price is oscillating downward. Wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by polysilicon, the price has weakened at the end of the session. The price may fluctuate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Affected by news, the market has declined. Wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to increased news interference, the market is expected to be weak. A short - selling strategy can be considered [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon price is expected to maintain high-level consolidation in the short term, but there is a risk of a price decline if polysilicon enterprises implement production restrictions. The polysilicon price is likely to be volatile and prone to rising, with supply-side disturbances remaining unstable [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) also remained flat at 9,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.58% to 8,820 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Supply is increasing steadily as some silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production, and businesses in the southwest are operating more due to lower electricity costs. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are reducing production, with some having复产 plans, which will bring some demand. However, the organic silicon market is facing supply pressure, and silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises are purchasing as needed [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The industrial silicon market has strengthened recently due to polysilicon sentiment. It is expected that the short-term silicon price will maintain high-level consolidation, but if polysilicon enterprises implement production restrictions, it will be negative for the industrial silicon market [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The prices of N-type dense material, N-type re-feeding material, and N-type mixed material increased by 0.20%, 0.19%, and 0.20% respectively, while the price of N-type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 8.70% to 56,735 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase slightly as some silicon material factories may have new production capacity, but demand has also increased as many upstream and downstream enterprises completed procurement and shipments by the end of August, reducing inventory [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The polysilicon market has been rising recently due to rumors of state purchases. In the short term, supply-side disturbances may cause price fluctuations, and the price is likely to rise [1]. Other Information - **Industry News**: Southern Co's subsidiary, Georgia Power, has been approved to sign five new solar power purchase agreements with a total capacity of 1,068 megawatts. It has also launched a tender for up to 2,000 megawatts of utility-scale solar or "solar + energy storage" projects [1]. - **Company Announcement**: Daquan Energy's General Manager, Zhu Wengang, stated that the company will continue its production reduction strategy in the third quarter, with a production guidance of 27,000 to 30,000 tons, and an annual production guidance of 110,000 to 130,000 tons in 2025 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Bearish / Polysilicon: Bearish [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang still affects the fundamental changes of industrial silicon. Short - term industrial silicon may operate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities. For polysilicon, although the spot dense material quotation has risen to 55 yuan/kg, the actual transaction price is likely to be concentrated between 50 - 52 yuan/kg. After the sharp rise in the futures market stimulated by the "anti - involution" news, the futures have a large premium over the spot, which may stimulate the hedging willingness of silicon material enterprises again. The upward space of polysilicon is limited, while the downward space is opened. Short - term attention should be paid to the callback opportunity, and the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity can be considered at around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial silicon/polysilicon industry chain prices - This week, the Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 430 yuan/ton to 8820 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - passing 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9100 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 8500 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 7180 yuan/ton to 56735 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N - type re -投料 increased by 1100 yuan/ton to 49000 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 "Anti - involution" news stimulates significant premium in the futures market - **Industrial silicon**: The main futures contract of industrial silicon fluctuated downward this week. The number of open furnaces in Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Northeast decreased by 3, 1, and 1 respectively. The resumption volume of large factories in Xinjiang was less than expected, and the southern start - up was basically stable. Some silicon factories may start to reduce production during the dry season in late October. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.40 million tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons. Downstream maintained rigid demand procurement without stockpiling. If the start - up of large factories in Xinjiang remains unchanged, industrial silicon may accumulate about 30,000 tons of inventory from September to October and may reduce inventory by about 100,000 tons during the dry season from November to December. If large factories in Xinjiang resume full production, it may be difficult to reduce inventory during the dry season [11] - **Organic silicon**: The price of organic silicon decreased slightly this week. Some devices were shut down or under maintenance, and the weekly start - up rate changed little. The overall start - up rate of enterprises was 73.47%, the weekly output was 48,600 tons, an increase of 1.04%, and the inventory was 48,400 tons, a decrease of 1.83%. New orders increased slightly, and the market activity increased slightly. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will fluctuate at a low level [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The main futures contract of polysilicon rose significantly this week. Polysilicon production and sales restrictions officially started in September, and the production schedule in September is still around 128,000 tons. Attention should be paid to whether the production will further decline to the quota level. As of September 4, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 211,000 tons, mainly concentrated in two first - tier enterprises. Silicon wafer enterprises' polysilicon raw material inventory reached 200,000 tons. Silicon material enterprises continued to raise prices, but downstream enterprises were resistant to high - priced silicon materials. It is expected that the transaction price of dense material in September will be concentrated between 50 - 52 yuan/kg [13] - **Silicon wafers**: The quotation of silicon wafers was further raised this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers remained at 1.25/1.40/1.60 yuan/piece, but the quotations of M10/G12 were further raised to 1.30/1.65 yuan/piece. As of September 4, the silicon wafer factory inventory was 16.85GW, and the production schedule in September was 57.5GW. It is expected that silicon wafers will stabilize at the new quotation in the short term [14] - **Battery cells**: The price of battery cells further increased this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells rose to 0.3/0.295 yuan/watt, while that of G12R remained at 0.285 yuan/watt. As of September 1, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 7.81GW, and the production schedule in September was 60GW. The price increase of silicon wafers put pressure on battery cells. It is expected that the price of battery cells will remain stable in the short term [15] - **Components**: The price of components remained basically stable this week. Centralized components mainly executed previous orders, and distributed projects executed more new orders. The upstream price increase was not smoothly transmitted to the terminal. It is expected that the component price will fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether there are demand - side policy introductions [16][17] 3.3 Investment advice - **Industrial silicon**: Pay attention to the follow - up progress of large factories' resumption in Xinjiang. Short - term industrial silicon may operate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and pay attention to range - trading opportunities [18] - **Polysilicon**: The actual transaction price of dense material is likely to be concentrated between 50 - 52 yuan/kg. After the sharp rise in the futures market, the futures have a large premium over the spot, which may stimulate the hedging willingness of silicon material enterprises. The upward space of polysilicon is limited, and the downward space is opened. Short - term attention should be paid to the callback opportunity, and the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity can be considered at around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][18] 3.4 Hot news sorting - **China Anneng's component purchase project change**: The original 0.66 yuan/W component price limit was invalid. The tender scale was changed from 2GW to 200MW, and the tender model was changed. The new tender does not set a price limit [19] - **Two - department policy**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued a plan to govern the low - price competition of photovoltaic products according to law, strengthen the monitoring and early warning of key industries, and guide the orderly layout of the photovoltaic and lithium - battery industries [19] 3.5 Industrial chain high - frequency data tracking - **Industrial silicon**: It includes data such as the spot price of oxygen - passing 553 and 99 silicon, weekly output in different regions, and social and factory inventories [21][24][28] - **Organic silicon**: It includes data such as the spot price of DMC, weekly profit, factory inventory, and weekly output [31][32] - **Polysilicon**: It includes data such as the spot price, weekly gross profit, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly output [36][37] - **Silicon wafers**: It includes data such as the spot price, average net profit, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly output [38][40][43] - **Battery cells**: It includes data such as the spot price, average net profit, export factory inventory, and enterprise monthly output [44][46][50] - **Components**: It includes data such as the spot price, average net profit, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly output [53][58][60]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in polysilicon futures prices is driven by favorable policy expectations and rising downstream product prices, with the main contract reaching a record high of 56,735 yuan/ton, marking a weekly increase of 14.49% [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Polysilicon futures prices have shown strong upward momentum, breaking out of the fluctuation range seen in August, influenced by market rumors and rising prices of downstream products [2][3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation released a plan aimed at promoting high-quality development in the photovoltaic sector, which is expected to positively impact polysilicon prices [3] - In August, polysilicon production was close to 130,000 tons, with September's production expected to remain around this level despite slight adjustments in some companies' operating plans [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand - The demand for polysilicon is projected to increase due to higher production rates of photovoltaic components and batteries, with an estimated 58 GW of silicon wafer production in September, translating to a demand of approximately 120,000 tons of polysilicon [4] - The current operating rate of polysilicon companies has risen to 40%, a 6 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a recovery in production capacity [6] - Social inventory of polysilicon reached 440,000 tons in August, remaining at historically high levels, with a need for ongoing monitoring of inventory reduction processes [7] Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - The recent price increase in polysilicon is expected to continue, with market analysts suggesting that the actual transaction prices for polysilicon have risen, indicating a potential for further price hikes [5][9] - Factors influencing future polysilicon futures prices include the concentration of warehouse receipts in November, the extent of price increases in the spot market, and the actual progress of capacity integration [8] - The market sentiment remains neutral, with traders showing limited purchasing activity despite some replenishment actions, indicating that upstream companies still hold pricing power [7]