多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 12 月 10 日， ...

2025 年 12 月 11 日 究 国 泰 工业硅：关注工业硅厂挺价情况 多晶硅：平台公司股权细节公布，盘面继续逢 低做多 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2601收盘价（元/吨） | 8,250 | -90 | -670 | -1,040 | | | | | Si2601成交量（手） | 252,510 | -71,000 | 106,511 | -113,239 | | | | | Si2601持仓量（手） | 171,757 | -13,514 | -22,169 | -109,746 | | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2601收盘价（元/吨） | 55,915 | 305 | -1,515 | - | | | | | PS2601成交量（手） | 116,207 | -42,531 | -66,218 | - | ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core Views - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and there were differences within the committee. The US faces challenges of rising prices and a cooling labor market. The market shows different trends for various commodities, with some in a state of shock, some with potential for short - term rebound, and others facing supply - demand imbalances [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals Gold and Silver - Gold prices were affected by the Fed's interest rate cut. Silver reached a new high, breaking through 60. The market showed certain price fluctuations and trading volume changes [14][18]. Copper - The decline of the US dollar supported copper prices. There were some impacts on supply from mining companies, and China's copper imports increased year - on - year [22][24]. Zinc - Zinc prices fell from a high level, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory [25]. Lead - The reduction in inventory limited the decline of lead prices [28]. Tin - There were disturbances in tin supply [31]. Aluminum, Alumina and Casting Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum prices continued to fluctuate, alumina had a slight rebound, and casting aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum [34]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum faced obvious pressure at the upper level, while palladium fluctuated upward [39][41]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The structural surplus of nickel changed, but the game contradictions remained unchanged. The supply and demand of stainless steel continued to be weak, and the cost - support logic was strengthened [43]. Lithium Carbonate - The news of large - scale production resumption was repeated, and the price was in a high - level shock [48]. 3.2 Industrial Minerals Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, the price was affected by factors such as inventory and cost. The details of the equity of the polysilicon platform company were announced, and the market suggested buying on dips [51][53]. Iron Ore - The downstream demand space of iron ore was limited, and the valuation was high [54]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Affected by the sentiment of the real estate sector, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices were in a low - level shock [57][60]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Both ferrosilicon and manganese silicon were in a wide - range shock [62]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke and coking coal prices were in a wide - range shock [65]. Logs - Log prices were in a low - level shock [69]. 3.3 Chemicals Paraxylene (PX), Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) and Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) - PX was in a high - level shock market with cost support. PTA had cost support and was suitable for positive spread trading. MEG's device production cut scale expanded, and the downward space was limited [73][81]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber was in a shock operation, and synthetic rubber was in a range operation [84][87]. Asphalt - Due to geopolitical factors, asphalt had a phased slight rebound [91]. Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) and Polypropylene (PP) - LLDPE prices fell unilaterally, and the basis weakened again. PP faced upstream selling pressure, and the price difference between powder and granular materials was inverted [103][105]. Caustic Soda - It was not advisable to chase short positions in caustic soda, as it faced high - production and high - inventory situations [108][109]. Pulp - Pulp prices were in a shock - upward trend. Although there was no significant change in the supply - demand fundamentals, the market was affected by factors such as low - valuation capital speculation [9][114]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets was stable, but the market faced problems of weak demand and high inventory [117][118]. Methanol - Methanol prices were under pressure. In the short term, it was in a weak operation, and in the medium - term, the high - supply pressure was the main contradiction [120][123]. Urea - Urea prices were in a shock operation. The demand side improved stage by stage, and the price was supported by the reduction of inventory, but there was also policy pressure [125][128]. Styrene - Styrene was in a short - term shock. The pure benzene market was in a bottom - shock state, and the supply pressure of styrene was not large [129][130]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changed little, with stable prices and weak downstream demand [132]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Propylene - LPG prices had wide - range fluctuations affected by cost factors. Propylene supply had an incremental expectation, and the upward driving force was limited [135][136]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - PVC prices were in a low - level shock. The high - production and high - inventory structure was difficult to change in the short term [144][145]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the center of the low - sulfur fuel oil market shifted downward at night [147]. 3.4 Shipping - The PA alliance's performance exceeded expectations, driving the sentiment of the container freight index (European line) to improve. The 2602 contract was in a shock market in the medium - term, and it was advisable to short the 2604 contract on rallies [149][161]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Both short fiber and bottle chip faced medium - term pressure, and it was advisable to short the processing margin on rallies [163][164]. Offset Printing Paper - It was advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper, with stable prices and weak market demand [166][167]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene was in a short - term shock, with inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand in the short term, but the supply was expected to shrink in the future [171][172]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm oil was expected to have a short - term rebound after the release of negative factors. Soybean oil fluctuated mainly due to insufficient driving force from US soybeans [174][179]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Soybean meal might follow the rebound of US soybeans. Soybean prices were in a shock [180][183]. Corn - Corn prices were in a shock operation, with price changes in different regions [184][185]. Sugar - Sugar prices were in a low - level shock, with different production and consumption situations in domestic and international markets [190][193]. Cotton - Cotton prices were in a shock - upward trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [195][197]. Eggs - Egg spot prices were in a shock [199]. Hogs - The market had already priced in the Winter Solstice expectation in advance, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [201][202]. Peanuts - Attention should be paid to the peanut spot market, with stable prices in most regions and small - scale price fluctuations in some areas [205][206].

宏观策略（黄金） 美联储降息 25bp 金价震荡收涨，美联储如期降息 25bp 落地，2026 年降息空间有 限，同时开始购债维持准备金规模充足，流动性紧张的风险下 降，但美联储资产负债表还没有快速扩张。 宏观策略（股指期货） 日度报告——综合晨报 美联储宣布降息 25BP，中国通胀分化 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-11 多晶硅平台公司，股东名单披露 可关注贴水现货后的逢低做多机会，或关注卖出虚值看跌期权 的机会。 11 月中国通胀分化 综 合 11 月通胀数据 k 型分化，CPI 上，PPI 下。一方面反映出反内卷 对物价的提振难以抵消需求疲弱和输入性因素的影响，另一方 面核心 CPI 走平也暗示消费扩张走弱。 晨 宏观策略（国债期货） 报 央行开展了 1898 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 政治局会议的表述未超市场预期，预计经济工作会议的政策定 调也应以保持定力为主。经过大幅下跌后，做多 TL 的赔率明显 提升，建议短线以调整买入思路对待。 黑色金属（动力煤） 12 月 10 日北港市场动力煤报价偏弱 12 月份以来，电厂补库后并未迎来预期中的冷冬，实际日耗表 现始终维持负增长。此轮冬 ...

【财经要闻】 1、据新华社，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰12月9日晚在京会见世界贸易组织总干事伊维 拉。何立峰表示，中方坚定支持以世界贸易组织为核心的多边贸易体制，反对单边主义、保护主义。中 国将积极参与世界贸易组织改革，持续推动贸易和投资自由化便利化，与各方一道维护开放、稳定、可 预期的国际贸易环境。 2、据智通财经，12月10日，财政部官网公布《关于2025年到期续作特别国债（一期和二期）发行工作 有关事宜的通知》（《通知》）。《通知》明确，财政部拟发行2025年到期续作特别国债（一期）、 （二期）（以下分别称第一期、第二期，统称两期国债），发行日期为2025年12月12日，其中，第一期 为10年期固定利率附息债，第二期为15年期固定利率附息债，第一期发行面值4000亿元，第二期发行面 值3500亿元。"2025年到期续作的7500亿元特别国债将在全国银行间债券市场面向有关银行定向发行， 期限品种包括10年期4000亿元、15年期3500亿元。"财政部有关负责人表示，发行过程不涉及社会投资 者，个人投资者不能购买。2025年到期续作特别国债是原特别国债的等额滚动发行，仍与原有资产负债 相对应，不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of the domestic solar-grade polysilicon prices in China as of December 10, 2025, highlighting the stability in pricing across various product categories [2]. Price Summary - The highest price for n-type re-investment material is 5.50 million CNY per ton, while the lowest is 4.90 million CNY, with an average price of 5.32 million CNY, showing no fluctuation [2]. - The n-type dense material has a highest price of 5.20 million CNY, a lowest price of 4.70 million CNY, and an average price of 4.97 million CNY, also with no fluctuation [2]. - The n-type granular silicon has a highest price of 5.10 million CNY, a lowest price of 5.00 million CNY, and an average price of 5.05 million CNY, maintaining stability [2]. Price Calculation Methodology - The prices are derived from a weighted average based on the production output of nine polysilicon manufacturers, which account for 89.3% of the total domestic output in Q3 2025, with n-type materials comprising 91.5% of the total [2][3]. - The prices are inclusive of tax, and the fluctuation percentage is calculated based on comparisons with previous prices [2]. Participating Companies - The article lists nine companies involved in the price statistics, including Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., Xinte Energy Co., Ltd., and GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited, among others [3]. Product Definitions - N-type re-investment material is used for producing n-type monocrystalline silicon and must meet electronic grade II standards [3]. - N-type dense material is also for n-type monocrystalline silicon production, requiring electronic grade III standards [3]. - P-type polysilicon includes various forms used for p-type monocrystalline silicon production [3]. - N-type granular silicon is specifically for n-type monocrystalline silicon production [3].

1、外媒称中方正考虑限制获取英伟达H200芯片，外交部回应 12月10日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 有外媒记者提问，据《金融时报》报道，虽然 美国总统特朗普已经决定允许将英伟达的H200芯片出售给中国，但中方正在考虑限制获取该芯片。中 方对此有何评论？ 郭嘉昆回应，我们昨天已就有关问题做出了回应。具体的情况，建议向中方的主管 部门进行询问。（北京日报） 2、中国公民未对中日之间的危机产生共鸣？ 中方回应 12月10日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 有记者提问，我们看到有越来越多的中国游客 自从中日之间的危机开始之后不再前往日本，但是仍有中国消费者非常青睐日本的品牌，这是否是表明 中国的公民并未对中日之间的危机产生共鸣？还是说中国政府的反制措施尚未涉及餐饮和零售业？中方 对此有何评论？ 郭嘉昆回应，我不知道你的消息来源是什么。关于当前中日关系，中方已经多次阐明 了严正立场。（北京日报） 3、宇树和智元高价争抢春晚赞助席位？智元机器人回应：不是真的 12月10日，据3报道，一批具身智能公司正在竞逐2026年总台马年春晚的赞助商资格。目前，智元 和宇树的竞争最为激烈。为了争夺最大赞助商的权益，智元机 ...

审核 | 浦电路交易员 文 | 陈寒松 来源 | 银河投研黑色与有色 编辑 | 杨兰 前言概要 01 从已公示的机制电价竞价结果来看，大部分省份实际竞价结果低于地方性136号文承接文件的竞价上限，低于存量机制电价。电 价下调影响电站收益水平，从电价和组件对电站收益率敏感性分析的角度来看，组件降价无法刺激需求增加。多晶硅价格变动1 万元/吨对组件价格成本影响在0.25元/W以内，组件对多晶硅的价格约束效应不强。硅片和电池价格、排产降低，当前的多晶硅 现货价格极度脆弱，考验多晶硅企业自律执行力。 只要多晶硅企业维持限售自律不变，企业依旧掌握定价权，终端的困境很难对多晶硅现货造成显著利空。严格执行销售约束必然 结果是厂家累库且增加现金压力，企业最合理行为是自发性减产。因此， 我们认为平台公司的落地并不是"反内卷"终点，对多 晶硅行业真正的考验开始。 在需求走弱、高库存格局下，当前的多晶硅现货价格极度脆弱。平台公司的成立反映多晶硅行业自律决心，多晶硅现货价格或难 降低。仓单数量偏少，近月合约逢低买入更有性价比。全行业利润刚性约束下， 厂家联合提价高点约束在6万元/吨附近，短中 期期货价格极限高点可参考6.3-6.5万 ...

公司营业执照显示，光和谦成注册资本30亿元，法定代表人为侯一聪，成立日期为2025年12月9日。公 司企业类型为有限责任公司（外商投资企业与内资合资），经营范围包括：技术服务、技术开发、技术 咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广、企业管理咨询等。 记者从业内了解到，光和谦成将专注于多晶硅产能整合收购等相关工作，为行业内主要企业探索潜在的 战略合作机会，如技术升级、市场拓展、产能与成本优化等。后续，参与各方将逐步追加投资金额，以 充实资本金。 12月10日，中国证券报记者从业内获悉，多晶硅产能整合收购平台光和谦成的10大股东名单已披露，即 通威光伏科技（峨眉山）有限公司、协鑫科技咨询服务（苏州）有限公司、上海东方希望新能源科技有 限公司、新疆大全新能源股份有限公司、新特能源股份有限公司、亚洲硅业（青海）股份有限公司、青 海丽豪新能源科技有限公司、北京中光同合能源科技有限公司、新疆戈恩斯能源科技有限公司、青海南 玻新能源科技有限公司。 其中，通威光伏科技（峨眉山）有限公司持股比例为30.35%，协鑫科技咨询服务（苏州）有限公司持 股比例为16.79%、上海东方希望新能源科技有限公司持股比例为11.3%，为光和谦成前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a long-awaited silicon material storage platform company named "Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd." has been confirmed, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Company Formation - Guanghe Qiancheng was registered on December 9, with its registered capital set at 3 billion yuan and located in Chaoyang District, Beijing [1] - The company’s shareholder structure includes ten entities, with major shareholders being Tongwei Photovoltaic Technology (Emei Mountain) Co., Ltd. (30.35%), GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (16.79%), and others [2][3] - The last shareholder, Beijing Zhongguang Tonghe Energy Technology Co., Ltd., is fully owned by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, indicating industry association involvement [3] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of Guanghe Qiancheng's establishment, the stock prices of several participating silicon material companies, including Tongwei and GCL-Poly, fell by over 3% on December 10 [5] - In contrast, the prices of polysilicon futures increased by over 1% on the same day [5] Group 3: Industry Context - The establishment of the storage platform is part of a broader effort to consolidate silicon material production capacity amid industry challenges [4] - Current average transaction prices for domestic N-type polysilicon materials have seen significant increases, with prices rising by 28.19%, 34.69%, and 30.15% for different types of materials compared to the beginning of the year [4]