前言 欧盟原本盘算着，只要再咬咬牙接受美国10%的关税，谈判桌上还能有个说话的份儿。 哪知道美国人胃口大得没边，张口就要15%甚至更高，连德国人的命根子汽车业都不放过。 这回，连最能忍的德国都炸了：想打仗？那就来！ 这一切要从上周那场90分钟的关键会议说起。 德国官员原本还抱着最后一丝幻想，觉得特朗普那封30%关税威胁信不过是谈判桌上的讨价还价。 结果美国商务部长卢特尼克在电话里的话，像一盆冷水浇在德国人头上："15%是底线，汽车业一分钱 都别想少。" 那一刻，连德国最温和的官员都明白了一个道理。 妥协换不来尊重，只会招来更大的胃口。 一位参与会议的德国官员后来回忆说，会议室里的气氛瞬间变了，"大家脸上的表情从期待变成了愤 怒。" 90分钟，德国从"求和"到"宣战" 德国经济部长更是拍案而起："我们不是谁都能欺负的！"就在这90分钟里，德国的对美政策发生了180 度的根本转变。 从此前的"能忍则忍，能让则让"，变成了"针锋相对，寸土不让"。那句震撼世界的狠话就是在这种背景 下说出来的。 "所有选项都摆在桌面上，如果美国想要战争，他们会得偿所愿。"德国人用的是"战争"这个词，虽然指 的是贸易战，但这个词从德国官 ...

Group 1 - Brazil's government expressed strong outrage against the U.S. for imposing a 50% tariff on its imports, highlighting the potential negative impact on both economies and their long-standing trade relationship [1][3] - The Brazilian government has been willing to engage in sincere dialogue with the U.S. to seek alternative solutions for improving bilateral trade since the announcement of the tariffs [3] - Brazil's fishing industry announced a suspension of exports to the U.S. in response to the tariffs, with approximately 70% of its fishery products being sent to the U.S. [5][7] Group 2 - The Brazilian beef export sector is also affected, with some processing plants halting exports to the U.S. and around 30,000 tons of beef valued at $160 million uncertain for entry into the U.S. market [7] - The Brazilian government is advising exporters to pressure U.S. buyers and explore alternative markets, although no specific compensation measures have been proposed [5][7] - The fishing industry faces significant challenges, with over 1,000 tons of fish products worth approximately $50 million currently in cold storage and up to 3,500 fishing vessels potentially ceasing operations [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. is set to increase import tariffs on August 1, with specific rates of 25% on Japan and 50% on Brazil, reflecting President Trump's dissatisfaction with Brazil's trade practices [1][2] - Since April 9, most U.S. trading partners have faced a 10% tariff, while Canada and Mexico have been subjected to a 25% tariff, although certain goods under the USMCA are exempt [2] - The Trump administration has implemented sector-specific tariffs, including a 50% import tax on steel and aluminum, and a 25% tariff on automobiles and most auto parts, with plans to extend tariffs to other industries such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [2] Group 2 - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin emphasized the importance of achieving a high-quality trade agreement over adhering to the August 1 deadline, suggesting that negotiations could continue post-deadline [1] - Commerce Secretary Lutnick described August 1 as a hard deadline for countries to start paying tariffs, indicating that negotiations could still occur after this date [1] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets saw a slight increase, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reaching new historical highs [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. Core Views of the Report - The short - term gold price is in a volatile state, and the dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term. The stock market needs to observe the Politburo meeting's positioning of the domestic economy and forward - looking policies. The CBOT soybeans rose due to private sales and the Indonesia - US agreement, and the market is concerned about US tariff policies. Various commodities have different price trends and influencing factors, such as steel prices oscillating weakly, coal prices remaining seasonally strong, and copper prices potentially under short - term pressure [11][15][18][25]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US June PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the monthly rate was 0%. Gold fluctuated sharply due to the news of Trump potentially firing Powell. The fundamentals lack positive factors for gold, and the short - term gold price is in a volatile range. Investment advice is that the short - term gold price will oscillate with increased volatility [10][11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - Fed officials believe the current restrictive monetary policy is appropriate. The Fed's Beige Book shows a slight economic uptick with high uncertainty. Trump denied firing Powell, but the dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [13][15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council executive meeting studied policies to strengthen the domestic cycle. On July 17, the stock market was flat at a high level with low trading volume. The market needs to observe the Politburo meeting's stance. Investment advice is to allocate stock indices evenly [18][19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US banks' performance grew steadily, but the investment banking business was under short - term pressure. The Fed's Beige Book showed a slight economic increase. The market's risk appetite is supported, but risks from Trump's policies exist. The stock index is expected to oscillate, and investors should control their positions carefully [20][22][23]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Private exporters sold 120,000 tons of soybeans, and Indonesia will buy $4.5 billion of US agricultural products, causing CBOT soybeans to rise. The market is concerned about US tariff policies. The domestic and foreign futures prices are oscillating, and the market should monitor US soybean production area weather and tariff policies [24][25][26]. 2.2 Ferrous Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price is oscillating weakly. The probability of over - expected policy stimulus is low. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Investment advice is to use a rebound hedging strategy for the spot market [27][28][29]. 2.3 Ferrous Metals (Steam Coal) - High - temperature weather supports coal consumption, and the coal price is expected to remain seasonally strong [30]. 2.4 Ferrous Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore price is oscillating at a high level. The supply is not expected to increase significantly this year, and the demand is under pressure. The price is difficult to break through the $100 resistance level [31][32]. 2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The Middle East will impose tariffs on Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises. The lead price is falling, but the price center of Shanghai lead is expected to rise. Investment advice includes looking for short - term buying opportunities and considering internal - external inverse arbitrage [33][34][35]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production increased in Q2 2025. The zinc price oscillated widely. The zinc market is under pressure, and investment advice includes short - term short - selling, positive arbitrage in the long - term month spread, and internal - external positive arbitrage [36][38]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe plans to build a lithium ore processing plant. The supply side of lithium carbonate has uncertainties. The price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term. Investment advice is to look for short - term long - buying and positive arbitrage opportunities [39][40]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Kazakhstan will restrict non - ferrous metal exports and resume gallium production. The copper price may be under short - term pressure. Investment advice is to take a bearish approach for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage [41][45]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia will shorten the mining quota period from 2026. The nickel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term and decline in the medium term. Investment advice is to look for short - selling opportunities [46][47]. 2.10 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The PDH unit of Guoheng stopped due to a malfunction. US C3 inventory increased, and the domestic market is weakly oscillating with insufficient upward momentum [48][49][50]. 2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased, but gasoline and refined oil inventories increased. The oil price fell slightly. The short - term oil price is expected to oscillate [51][52][53]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. The supply increased, and the demand was good. It is difficult for the price to continue rising [54][55]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is weakening. The upward space of the pulp price is limited [56]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder decreased. The PVC market followed the rebound but has limited upward potential due to inventory changes [57][58]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts. The supply pressure will be relieved, and investors can look for opportunities to expand processing fees [59][60]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weakly stable. The supply is high, and the demand is average. Investment advice is to short - sell at high prices in the medium term [61]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass decreased slightly. The glass market is weak, and investment advice includes considering cross - variety arbitrage [62][63]. 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The Port of Long Beach will expand. The freight rate of the European line's 10 - contract retreated after rising. The 08 - contract's oscillation range moved up, but there are potential negative factors [64][65].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is facing a critical situation due to the announcement of a 30% tariff on EU exports by U.S. President Trump, which could have disastrous economic impacts on the EU if negotiations do not yield a better agreement before the August 1 deadline [1][6][11]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The proposed tariffs could lead to shortages or price increases for imported goods in the U.S., particularly affecting products like wine, cheese, and pasta, primarily sourced from France [6]. - The French food industry is expected to suffer a "disastrous" impact from the 30% tariff, as stated by the president of the French National Food Industry Association [6]. - The German Industrial Association has expressed that the tariff escalation threatens global employment and investment, with German companies already incurring billions in additional costs [11]. Group 2: EU Response and Strategy - The EU is preparing to negotiate with the U.S. while also being ready to defend its interests through potential countermeasures [15][19]. - There is a lack of consensus among major EU economies like France, Germany, and Italy regarding the approach to the U.S. tariffs, with some advocating for strong responses while others prefer negotiation [12][13]. - The EU has delayed the implementation of retaliatory tariffs worth €21 billion until August 1 to allow for negotiation time, while also preparing a second list of tariffs on U.S. products valued at €72 billion [22][25]. Group 3: Trade Relations and Future Outlook - The EU's trade relations with the U.S. are at a crossroads, with increasing pressure to adopt a more assertive stance against U.S. tariffs [19][21]. - The EU is considering a range of products for potential tariffs, including aircraft, machinery, and automotive parts, to ensure a balanced competitive environment [25]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and rising protectionism necessitate that the EU accelerates bilateral trade negotiations with other partners [18].

Inflation Overview - In June, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in May and slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%[6] - The core CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, aligning with market expectations[6] Core CPI Analysis - The month-on-month CPI growth rose by 0.2 percentage points to 0.3%, matching market expectations, while the core CPI increased by 0.2%, slightly below the expected 0.3%[10] - Energy prices were the main driver of the inflation increase, with energy inflation rising by 1.9 percentage points to 1.0% month-on-month[13] Tariff Impact on Core Goods - The impact of tariffs on core goods is beginning to show, with notable month-on-month increases in clothing (0.9 percentage points) and furniture (0.6 percentage points) prices[14] - However, inflation in automobiles and pharmaceuticals showed weakness, with respective month-on-month declines of 0.5% and 0.3%[15] Core Services Performance - Core services, particularly medical and transportation services, showed strong inflation performance, with airfares increasing by 2.6 percentage points month-on-month[20] - The housing component saw a decline in growth, primarily due to a significant drop in hotel accommodation prices, which fell by 2.8 percentage points to -2.9%[20] Future Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue its moderate rise, with tariffs likely to exert further pressure on consumer prices in the coming months[24] - The average tariff rate on U.S. imports was approximately 8.7% in May, reflecting a 6.5 percentage point increase from the end of 2024[24] Federal Reserve Stance - Given the current economic conditions and the gradual transmission of tariff pressures, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach, making it difficult to lower interest rates in the short term[25]

Economic Overview - In June, the actual GDP growth for Q2 was 5.2%, aligning with market expectations, while nominal GDP growth slowed by 0.7 percentage points to approximately 3.9%[1] - The industrial added value for June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, with a month-on-month growth of 0.5%[3] - The capacity utilization rate for large-scale industries in Q2 was 74.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter and 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year, indicating potential overcapacity[3][23] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in the first half of 2025 was 248,654 billion yuan, growing by 2.8%, which was below market expectations of 3.8%[5] - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.6%, while manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, and real estate development investment fell by 11.2%[7][39] - The marginal slowdown in investment demand is attributed to concerns over medium- to long-term uncertainties following tariff adjustments[5][39] Consumer Behavior - The total retail sales of consumer goods in June rose by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 6.4% in May, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point decline[4][31] - The "618" shopping festival significantly supported retail sales, with e-commerce sales reaching 8,556 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year[33] - Automotive sales showed robust growth, with June retail sales increasing by 4.6% year-on-year, despite price promotions impacting overall retail revenue[36] Market Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to see a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, driven by a potential easing of Sino-US trade relations and risk-averse funds supporting market sentiment[2][21] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low expectations for large-scale domestic demand stimulus[2][21]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around President Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Japan, South Korea, and 12 other countries, with a specific mention of a potential 25% tariff aimed at reducing the trade deficit [1][3] - Japan's government is actively discussing countermeasures in response to the U.S. tariff threats, indicating the seriousness of the situation and the potential severe impact on Japan's economy if the tariffs are implemented [1][5] - The expansion of tariffs to cover "all goods" represents a significant systemic pressure test for Japan's economic structure, with potential far-reaching impacts across various industries, particularly in the automotive sector [5][6] Group 2 - Prime Minister Kishida's recent statements reflect a strong stance against perceived U.S. aggression, emphasizing the importance of national interests and the need for Japan to assert itself [3][6] - The relationship between Japan and China appears to be improving, with recent diplomatic engagements suggesting a desire for enhanced cooperation and communication, which may provide Japan with alternative economic partnerships amid U.S. tariff pressures [8]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff on the EU, which has led to significant frustration among EU member states [1][2] - The EU initially attempted to negotiate a balanced tariff of 10% but ended up facing a unilateral 30% tariff, indicating a failure in their negotiation strategy [1] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's decision to delay countermeasures against the U.S. has been criticized as a missed opportunity for a strong response [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. government is focused on implementing new customs tariffs rather than considering the impact on consumer prices, showcasing a hardline stance [2] - The EU's response has been perceived as weak, with the Commission acting as a spokesperson for U.S. policies rather than defending EU interests [2] - The situation highlights the vulnerability of the EU in the face of U.S. trade policies, suggesting that the EU may be seen as a tool for U.S. interests rather than a unified entity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union's newly released "General Artificial Intelligence Code of Conduct" introduces significant regulatory challenges for the automotive industry, particularly in the context of smart and connected vehicles [3][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The "Code" serves as an extension of the EU's "Artificial Intelligence Act," focusing on transparency, copyright, safety, and security for AI models used in the automotive sector [4]. - The Code will take effect on August 2, 2025, requiring companies to comply with regulations for AI models built before this date within two years, while models developed after must comply within one year [4]. - The EU adopts a strict risk-based regulatory model, categorizing AI applications into unacceptable, high, medium, and low-risk, with high-risk applications requiring pre-assessment and ongoing monitoring [4]. Group 2: Challenges for the Automotive Industry - Automotive companies must transition from "black box" decision-making to transparent compliance, particularly for Level 2+ autonomous driving systems, which must disclose algorithms, training data sources, and decision logic [5]. - Compliance costs are expected to rise, with estimates indicating a 15%-20% increase in the development costs of intelligent systems per vehicle due to the need for algorithm explainability and real-time monitoring systems [5]. - The automotive sector faces new challenges in copyright compliance and user data governance, necessitating renegotiation of licensing agreements with content copyright holders and ensuring compliance with the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) [6]. Group 3: Business Model Innovation - The shift from "data-driven" to "compliance-driven" business models will impact over-the-air (OTA) updates, requiring prior notification to regulatory bodies for changes involving AI model parameters [7]. - Chinese automotive companies exporting to the EU must embed multi-regional compliance modules in their AI systems, ensuring data localization for the EU market [7]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Automotive companies are advised to establish an AI compliance committee to oversee technical development, legal, and data security departments, and recruit professionals with expertise in EU AI regulations and GDPR [8]. - Long-term strategies should include partnerships with EU-certified open data platforms and content distributors to mitigate infringement risks and the development of lightweight, auditable AI models [9]. - Companies must balance technological innovation with regulatory compliance, as the Code may increase compliance costs but also drive responsible innovation in AI technology [9][10].