Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]

| 财产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月14日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张庆 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3220 | 3220 | O | 118 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3210 | 0 | 108 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3340 | 3310 | 30 | 238 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3033 | 3036 | -3 | 187 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3079 | 3082 | -3 | 141 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3102 | 3103 | -1 | 118 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3260 | 3280 | -20 | 32 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3210 | 3200 | 10 | -18 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel - The steel industry shows strong supply - demand on the industrial side with continuous inventory reduction. Low inventory supports the market, and improved macro - sentiment is expected to repair the valuation. Attention should be paid to the impact of terminal restocking on spot prices. For the October contract, the pressure range for rebar is 3200 - 3250, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3300 - 3400 [1]. Iron Ore - In the short - term, the valuation of iron ore is expected to be repaired, but in the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is maintained. The high - level of molten iron production is approaching its peak, and the supply - demand pressure of iron ore will increase in the future [4]. Coke - The coke market is in a weak pattern. The spot market is slightly declining, and the futures market has a large hedging pressure. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke, and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel reduction and tariff negotiations [6]. Coking Coal - The coking coal market is in a situation of loose supply - demand. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal, and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel reduction and tariff negotiations [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been alleviated. The cost is relatively stable, and with positive macro - level news, the price is expected to rebound based on valuation repair [8]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese market is in a situation where production is decreasing, and the supply - demand gap is narrowing. With positive macro - level news, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound based on valuation repair [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions have different changes, with some rising and some falling. Futures contract prices also show fluctuations [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while some steel production costs increased. Profits in different regions and varieties also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron production increased by 0.2 to 245.6 tons, with a 0.1% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased by 9.5 tons to 874.2 tons, a 1.1% decrease. Rebar production decreased significantly by 4.2% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 29.0 tons to 1476.1 tons, a 2.0% increase. Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories also increased [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 27.8%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 12.9%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased significantly [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis of the 09 - contract for different varieties increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 49.4%, while the 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads changed [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 2.5%, the global shipment volume decreased by 4.3%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 0.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1%, the 45 - port daily average ore - discharging volume decreased by 5.0%, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased significantly [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.4%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.0%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke spot prices in different regions and futures contract prices showed fluctuations. The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged. The coking profit increased significantly [6]. Supply - The daily average production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly [6]. Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills increased slightly [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 1.8%, and the inventories of full - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreased [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coking coal spot prices in different regions remained stable, and futures contract prices decreased. The basis increased, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged. The sample coal mine profit decreased slightly [6]. Supply - The raw coal and clean coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased slightly [6]. Demand - The demand for coking coal, represented by coke production, decreased slightly [6]. Inventory - The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased, while the inventories of full - sample coking plants and ports decreased [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 0.4%. Spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the production profit increased slightly. The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port increased [8]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production increased by 3.9%, and the operating rate increased by 5.8% [8]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand decreased by 1.1%, and the iron and steel - related demand indicators showed different changes [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 11.8% [8]. Silicomanganese Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the silicomanganese main contract decreased by 1.0%. Spot prices in different regions increased slightly [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia remained stable, and the production profit situation was not significantly changed [8]. Supply - Silicomanganese production decreased by 1.1%, and the operating rate decreased by 7.9% [8]. Demand - The silicomanganese demand decreased by 1.8%, and the iron and steel - related demand indicators showed different changes [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 13.9% [8].

Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The market sentiment for glass and soda ash is pessimistic, with both showing an oscillating downward trend. Glass production is decreasing, but due to insufficient demand recovery in the real - estate and deep - processing sectors, inventory is piling up. Soda ash production has declined due to increased plant maintenance, but the supply remains abundant, and the demand improvement space is limited [1] - Market analysis - Glass: The glass futures market oscillated downward yesterday, with strong pessimism. In the spot market, the Shahe market was weak, the East China market had a narrow - range adjustment, the Central China market's prices were weak, the South China market's prices were stable for now, and the Northeast market remained unchanged. Overall, the shipment was average, mainly for external sales [1] - Soda ash: The soda ash futures market oscillated weakly yesterday. In the spot market, the domestic soda ash market was stable with oscillations, and the transaction prices were flexible. The daily production of soda ash decreased, with an operating rate of 75.45% [1] - Supply - demand and logic - Glass: Recently, glass production has been on a downward trend. However, due to insufficient demand recovery in the real - estate and deep - processing sectors, the replenishment intensity and sustainability are weak, leading to obvious inventory accumulation. The high - temperature and rainy season is unfavorable for glass storage, and enterprises may have a stronger intention to reduce prices for inventory clearance [1] - Soda ash: Affected by increased plant maintenance, soda ash production has declined recently but remains in a loose state. Currently, the growth of the photovoltaic industry has slowed down, the demand improvement space for soda ash is limited, and the inventory clearance pressure is still large [1] - Strategy - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] Group 2: Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The market for silicomanganese and ferrosilicon is sluggish, with continuous increases in maintenance. The production of both is affected by industry profits and is at a low level, but the demand has certain resilience. The high inventory of silicomanganese manufacturers suppresses prices, while the low - level manganese ore port inventory supports the alloy cost. The ferrosilicon price is currently dragged down by costs [3] - Market analysis - Silicomanganese: The market expectation has been weak recently. A large - scale silicomanganese enterprise in Chongqing decided to shut down 2 furnaces for maintenance. The daily average production of silicomanganese this week was 22,065 tons, with a theoretical weekly production of 154,455 tons. The silicomanganese futures market oscillated strongly. In the spot market, the silicomanganese market oscillated, with few quotes. The price in the northern market was 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,650 - 5,750 yuan/ton [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market followed the black - goods sector, rising and then falling. In the spot market, the ferrosilicon market was weak, and most operations were cautious. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,900 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand and logic - Silicomanganese: Affected by industry profits, silicomanganese production continues to decline and is at a low level over the years. The high pig - iron production maintains the demand for silicomanganese. The high inventory of silicomanganese manufacturers and registered warrants suppresses the price. However, the low - level manganese ore port inventory and the continuous decline in manganese ore prices support the alloy cost. Future attention should be paid to the supply side of manganese ore [3] - Ferrosilicon: In the context of enterprise losses, ferrosilicon production remains at a medium - low level. The high pig - iron production maintains the demand for ferrosilicon. The manufacturers' inventory is continuously decreasing, and the downstream enterprises' inventory is at a low level. The ferrosilicon production capacity is relatively abundant, and the short - term price is dragged down by costs. Future attention should be paid to the impact of electricity price changes and industrial policies on the black - goods sector [3] - Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Tariff cuts exceed expectations, demand expectations are revised upward, and macro - sentiment improvement is expected to repair valuations. The industry has strong supply and demand and continuous de - stocking. Pay attention to the impact of terminal restocking on spot prices and the pressure in specific price ranges for different contracts [1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract rebounded due to macro - level sentiment. Fundamentally, daily iron - water production remains high, and inventory pressure eases. The sustainability of high iron - water production depends on terminal demand for finished products, and the supply - demand pressure may increase in the future. It is expected to have short - term valuation repair but a bearish outlook in the medium - to - long - term [4]. Coke - The futures rebounded due to tariff negotiation results. The second round of spot price increase is difficult to implement, and the market is bearish. Although the fundamentals have improved, factors such as weak coking coal, over - capacity, and lack of pricing power lead to a weak downward trend. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - The futures rebounded due to tariff negotiation results, but the spot market is weak, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. High supply, high imports, and high inventory are the main reasons for the price decline. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [6]. Ferrosilicon - The futures main contract continued to rebound. Supply pressure has eased after previous production cuts, but inventory is still at a medium - to - high level. Demand is cautious, and cost is relatively stable. It is expected that the price will stabilize and rebound, but the trend - based market lacks momentum [7]. Ferromanganese - The main contract rebounded slightly. The fundamentals lack a basis for continuous rebound. Production is in a state of reduction, and demand is affected by factors such as iron - water production and finished - product inventory. Manganese ore prices are expected to stabilize. It is expected that the price will oscillate and bottom - build, and then rebound [7]. 3. Summaries by Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products, including rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, have increased. The basis and spreads also show certain changes [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices have increased, while some costs and profits of steel products have decreased, such as the profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions [1]. Supply - The daily average iron - water production has a slight increase, while the production of five major steel products and rebar has decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils has a slight increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products and rebar has increased, while the inventory change shows a certain trend [1]. Demand - Building material trading volume has a slight increase, but the apparent demand for five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils has decreased [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The prices of iron ore varieties such as warehouse - receipt costs and spot prices have increased, and the basis and spreads have changed significantly [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports and global shipment volume have decreased, while monthly import volume has a slight decrease [4]. Demand - The weekly average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills has a slight increase, and monthly pig iron and crude - steel production have increased significantly [4]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills have decreased [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke products in different regions and contracts have changed, and the basis and spreads have also adjusted. The coking profit has increased [6]. Supply - The daily average production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills has a slight decrease [6]. Demand - The iron - water production of 247 steel mills has a slight increase [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory and the inventory of different sectors, such as coking plants, steel mills, and ports, have decreased [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The supply - demand gap of coke has a certain change [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal in different forms and contracts have changed, and the basis and spreads have also adjusted. The sample coal - mine profit has a slight decrease [6]. Supply - The production of domestic coal mines is at a relatively high level, and the import volume of coking coal has changed due to various factors [6]. Demand - Downstream users purchase coking coal on - demand as the blast - furnace and coking - plant operations increase [6]. Inventory - The coal - mine inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate, while the port inventory decreases, and the downstream inventory is at a low level [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The main - contract price of ferrosilicon futures has increased, and the prices of spot products in different regions and spreads have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia has decreased, and the production profit has increased. The Lanzhou - charcoal price remains stable [7]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon has increased slightly, and the production - enterprise start - up rate has increased [7]. Demand - The iron - water production remains high, but the downstream demand for procurement is cautious. The overseas demand has changes in quotation and inquiry [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises has decreased, and the average available days for downstream users have decreased [7]. Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The main - contract price of ferromanganese futures has increased, and the prices of spot products in different regions and spreads have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia has decreased slightly, and the production profit has increased. The prices of manganese ore from different sources remain stable [7]. Manganese Ore Supply - The weekly shipment volume of manganese ore has decreased, while the arrival volume and port - clearance volume have increased [7]. Manganese Ore Inventory - The port inventory of manganese ore has decreased [7]. Supply - The weekly production of ferromanganese has decreased, and the start - up rate has decreased [7]. Demand - The demand for ferromanganese has a slight decrease, and the procurement volume of a large enterprise remains stable [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises has increased, and the average available days have increased slightly [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The current period shows a significant decline in apparent demand, with steel prices weakening and a notable drop in night - trading. Despite the May Day holiday factor, the decline is greater than in previous years. Steel prices weakened first while iron ore remained strong, leading to a lower steel - ore ratio. Considering high production, if demand weakens, steel mills are expected to cut production. With relatively low steel inventories, unilateral operations are recommended to be on hold for now. Arbitrage operations of going long on steel and short on raw materials can be considered[1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract of iron ore was weakly running, affected by the news of crude steel production cuts. The price of iron ore is under continuous upward pressure. Fundamentally, this week's average daily hot metal production increased slightly month - on - month and remained at a high level. The social inventory of finished products generally increased, and the apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The profitability of steel mills improved slightly, and hot metal production may continue to stay high in the short term. Looking forward, the terminal demand for finished products determines the sustainability of high hot metal production. The marginal changes lie in exports and infrastructure. In reality, with high hot metal production, iron ore inventory is basically stable, but from May to June, overseas mines will increase shipments, and the subsequent supply - demand pressure for iron ore will increase. Coupled with the increasing expectation of crude steel production cuts, the iron ore price is expected to continue to be under pressure[3]. Coke - As of May 8, coke futures showed a volatile downward trend. The second round of spot price increases for coke has encountered resistance and is currently in a game stage. Considering the weak situation of coking coal, the second - round price increase may not materialize. After the holiday, the ex - factory price of coke will remain stable in the short term, and the port trade price will run weakly. On the supply side, due to the high hot metal production of downstream steel mills, coke enterprises have good orders, and their production and profits have improved. On the demand side, after the holiday, hot metal production remained above 245,000 tons per day, and steel mills replenished inventory as needed, without obvious inventory accumulation. It is necessary to pay attention to whether hot metal production will decline in the future. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coking plants and steel mills has been decreasing, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. Although the fundamentals of coke have improved, the weakness of coking coal, over - capacity, and the lack of pricing power of coke enterprises are the main reasons for the weak decline of coke prices. It is recommended to continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts[5]. Coking Coal - As of May 8, coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend. After the May Day holiday, the market auction was cold again, and the pattern of loose supply and demand was difficult to reverse in the short term. On the supply side, domestic coal mines continued to resume production, and production was at a relatively high level. In terms of imported coal, before the holiday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased significantly, and the import profit of seaborne coal continued to be negative. On the demand side, as the downstream blast furnaces and coking plants continued to operate, the inventory was still purchased on - demand. After the holiday, hot metal production remained above 245,000 tons per day. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be a decline in the future. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coal mines continued to accumulate at a high level, with pressure to reduce prices and sell. The port inventory decreased rapidly, and the downstream inventory was at a low level. Coal prices are still in a downward trend. High supply, high imports, and high inventory are the main factors causing the decline in coal prices. It is recommended to continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts[5]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures' main contract oscillated. Spot traders mainly replenished stocks, and the willingness for speculative inventory was limited. Fundamentally, ferrosilicon production increased slightly month - on - month. After previous production cuts, the supply pressure was relieved, and factory inventories stopped increasing and started to decline. However, the overall inventory was still at a medium - high level. On the demand side, hot metal production remained high, steel mill profits were restored, and the social inventory of finished products increased while the apparent demand reached a peak and then declined. Attention should be paid to the subsequent marginal changes in exports. In non - steel demand, the pre - holiday inventory reduction of metal iron manufacturers supported prices, but downstream demand and procurement were low. At the same time, although overseas quotations were high, the trading volume decreased, and buyers had limited acceptance of high prices. In terms of cost, the price of semi - coke remained stable. With low inventory and reduced supply, the supply - demand contradiction was limited. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will oscillate in the short term[7]. Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese price continued to oscillate and explore downward, without macro - level fluctuations. Fundamentally, ferromanganese continued to cut production. Currently, the loss of manufacturers in Ningxia has deepened, and the production enthusiasm continued to weaken. Some factories in Inner Mongolia will conduct routine inspections, and most factories in Guangxi still maintain production and load reduction. With the arrival of the wet season in Yunnan, production increased slightly. On the demand side, hot metal production remained high, steel mill profits were restored, and the social inventory of finished products increased while the apparent demand reached a peak and then declined. Attention should be paid to the subsequent marginal changes in exports. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory still decreased significantly under production cuts, and the supply - demand contradiction deepened further. In terms of manganese ore, the global manganese ore shipments decreased month - on - month, and the short - term arrival volume remained high. The seaborne inventory of non - mainstream mines in China was at a high level. Currently, the import profit of port traders was negative, and manganese ore was under the pressure of negative feedback and potential supply release. It is expected that the ferromanganese price will oscillate weakly in the short term[7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Price and Spread - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in various regions decreased, and the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts also declined. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed[1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of billets decreased, and the costs of various steel production processes changed. The profits of different regions and varieties of steel increased[1]. Production and Inventory - The average daily hot metal production increased slightly, and the production of five major steel products decreased. The inventory of five major steel products increased, and the inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coils also increased[1]. Apparent Demand - The apparent demand for steel decreased significantly, including the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils[1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The costs of different types of iron ore warehouse receipts decreased, and the prices and spreads of futures contracts changed. The spot prices of iron ore in ports decreased, and the prices of price indices increased slightly[3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports, global shipments, and monthly national import volume decreased[3]. Demand - The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills, the average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports, monthly national pig iron production, and monthly national crude steel production increased[3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports decreased slightly, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased[3]. Coke Price and Spread - The spot prices of coke in various regions remained unchanged, and the prices of coke futures contracts decreased. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed. The coking profit increased significantly[5]. Supply - The average daily production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly[5]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased slightly[5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased, and the inventories of coking plants, steel mills, and ports all decreased[5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The supply - demand gap of coke increased negatively, indicating a more serious oversupply situation[5]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The spot prices of coking coal in various regions remained unchanged, and the prices of coking coal futures contracts decreased. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed. The profit of sample coal mines decreased slightly[5]. Supply - The production of domestic coal mines increased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased. The import profit of seaborne coal was negative[5]. Demand - The demand for coking coal was mainly on - demand procurement, and hot metal production remained high[5]. Inventory - The inventory of coal mines continued to accumulate at a high level, the port inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory was at a low level[5]. Ferrosilicon Price and Spread - The price of the ferrosilicon futures' main contract increased slightly, and the spot prices in some regions remained unchanged while others decreased. The spread between the ferrosilicon and ferromanganese main contracts decreased[7]. Cost and Profit - The costs of ferrosilicon production in different regions remained stable, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased[7]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon increased, and the operating rate of production enterprises increased[7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the production and operating rate of ferrosilicon - chromium decreased[7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased, and the average number of available days for downstream ferrosilicon decreased[7]. Ferromanganese Price and Spread - The price of the ferromanganese futures' main contract increased significantly, and the spot prices in various regions decreased. The spreads between different regions and the main contract changed[7]. Cost and Profit - The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port changed, and the costs of ferromanganese production in different regions decreased slightly[7]. Supply - The global manganese ore shipments increased slightly, the arrival volume increased significantly, and the port inventory decreased[7]. Demand - The weekly production of ferromanganese decreased, and the operating rate decreased. The demand for ferromanganese from steel mills remained high[7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the average number of available days for ferromanganese increased[7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and rising high, with the military sector remaining hot. The bond market is expected to be volatile and may strengthen in the medium term. The prices of precious metals are under pressure in the short term but may rise in the long term. The shipping index is expected to have a seasonal peak, and the prices of non-ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macroeconomics [2][6][9] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market opened low and rose high, with major indices rising. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, but all had negative basis. The A-share trading volume decreased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. It is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options or go long on the June IM contract [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed higher, and the yields of major interest rate bonds decreased. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital interest rate decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the capital interest rate, fundamentals, and tariff negotiations [5][6] Precious Metals - Gold prices fell significantly due to the easing of trade risks and the outflow of long funds. Silver prices were relatively stable. In the long term, gold prices may rise due to economic recession risks and diversification needs. In the short term, they are under pressure due to the improvement of risk appetite. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral operations or sell out-of-the-money call options [9][10][11] Container Shipping Index - The quotes of leading shipping companies were relatively stable. The SCFIS European line index decreased, while the US West line index increased. The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was weak. It is recommended to go long on the August contract or widen the August - June spread [12][13] Commodity Futures Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper decreased, and the premium decreased. The supply was affected by the accident at the Antamina copper mine, and the demand was stable. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 77,500 - 78,500 [13][16][18] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc increased, but the trading volume was poor. The supply of zinc ore was loose, but the production of refined zinc was affected by maintenance. The demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 21,500 - 23,500 [18][19][21] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin increased, and the trading volume increased slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, but the supply is expected to recover. The demand was improved by policies, but the outlook is pessimistic. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds [21][22][23] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel decreased, and the trading volume was average. The supply of nickel ore was tight, and the price of nickel iron decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 122,000 - 128,000 [23][26] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel was stable, and the trading volume was poor. The supply was excessive, and the demand was slowly recovering. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [27][29] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume was light. The supply increased, and the demand was average. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 63,000 - 68,000 [31][34] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price of steel decreased, and the production was high. The demand decreased during the May Day holiday, and the inventory increased. The profit of blast furnace steel mills was stable, while that of electric furnace steel mills was in loss. It is recommended to wait and see in unilateral operations and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of going long on steel and short on raw materials [35][36] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The demand for iron ore was high, but the supply increased. The inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the policy and the terminal demand of steel products [37][38] - **Coke**: The spot price of coke had demand support, but the second price increase was blocked. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [39][40][41] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The supply was high, and the demand was average. The inventory was high. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [42][44] - **Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron was stable, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [45][46] - **Manganese Silicon**: The spot price of manganese silicon decreased, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased slightly. The inventory increased. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [48][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The price of US soybeans fluctuated, and the price of domestic soybean meal followed weakly. The domestic soybean meal market price was mixed, and the trading volume increased. The supply of US soybeans was sufficient, and the domestic soybean arrival was abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to the support near 2,900 [51][53] - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs fluctuated slightly. The supply of hogs was stable, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the performance of secondary fattening and slaughter [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was strong, and the price was in a high - level shock. The supply of corn was tight, and the demand was limited. The price is expected to be supported in the long term but may be under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [57][58] - **Sugar**: The price of raw sugar fluctuated weakly, and the domestic sugar price followed. The supply of sugar was expected to increase, and the domestic supply - demand situation was loose. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds in the medium - long term [59]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel - Market sentiment is recovering, with weekly data showing a slight increase in the output of five major steel products and continued inventory reduction. The current situation is tight, but the outlook is weak. Low inventory supports steel prices, and if demand expectations improve, low inventory can provide upward momentum for absolute prices. The recommended trading range for rebar is 3100 - 3300 yuan/ton, and for hot-rolled coils is 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on long steel and short raw material arbitrage operations [1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated, and the price is still under pressure in the short term. Administrative production cuts still have an impact, but the form and volume of production cuts are undetermined. This week, the daily average pig iron output continued to increase slightly, reaching a high level in the same period of history. The finished products downstream continued to reduce inventory, and steel mills' profits improved, leading to continued production resumption. The future of high production levels depends on the terminal demand. Inventory increased before the festival, and the port inventory slightly accumulated. The iron ore price is expected to continue to be under pressure [3]. Coke - The second round of spot price increases for coke before the festival faced resistance and is currently in a negotiation stage. Considering the weakening of coking coal, the second round of price increases may not be realized. After the festival, the ex-factory price of coke will remain stable in the short term, and the port trading price will be slightly weak. The supply side is increasing production due to good orders, and the demand side is supported by high pig iron production. However, the weak coking coal, overcapacity, and lack of pricing power of coke enterprises are the main reasons for the weak decline of coke prices. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of long hot-rolled coils and short coke and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts [5]. Coking Coal - After the festival, the supply-demand situation remains loose in the short term. The supply side includes continued production resumption of domestic mines and reduced imports of Mongolian coal. The demand side shows that downstream users are replenishing inventory, but mainly on a need-to basis. The inventory of mines is high, and the port inventory is decreasing. High supply, high imports, and high inventory are the main reasons for the decline in coal prices. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of long hot-rolled coils and short coking coal and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts [5]. Ferrosilicon - The main contract of ferrosilicon futures fell significantly, mainly due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The supply pressure has been relieved after previous production cuts, and the factory inventory has stopped increasing and started to decline, but the overall inventory is still at a medium to high level. The demand side shows an increase in pig iron production, and the non-steel demand has improved seasonally. The export growth in March is considered unsustainable. The cost side is stable, but the electricity price needs further monitoring. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will be slightly weak in the short term [6]. Ferromanganese - The main contract of ferromanganese continued to decline, mainly due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The production reduction continued during the holiday, and the output increased slightly. The demand side is supported by high pig iron production, but the sustainability depends on the terminal demand. The manganese ore market is under pressure, with a decline in global shipments and high arrival volumes. It is expected that the ferromanganese price will fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showed different trends in different regions and contracts. The basis of some contracts changed [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and some steel products decreased, and the profit of some steel products also decreased [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products increased, with a significant increase in the electric furnace output of rebar [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot-rolled coils decreased [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The trading volume of building materials decreased, but the apparent demand of five major steel products, rebar, and hot-rolled coils increased [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot increased slightly, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed [3]. - **Supply**: The arrival volume at 45 ports, global shipments, and national monthly imports decreased [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output, 45-port daily average ore removal volume, national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The 45-port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased [3]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads changed. The second round of spot price increases faced resistance [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of coking plants and steel mills increased [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output increased, and the inventory and available days of steel mills' coke increased [5]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased slightly, the coking plant inventory decreased, and the port inventory decreased [5]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads changed. The market coal auction was cold after a short recovery [5]. - **Supply**: The production of domestic mines increased, and the import of Mongolian coal decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The coke output increased slightly, and the downstream users replenished inventory [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of mines was high, the port inventory decreased, and the inventory of downstream users was at a low level [5]. Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the main contract of ferrosilicon decreased, and the spot prices in some regions decreased. The basis and spreads changed [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in some regions decreased, and the production profit in some regions changed [6]. - **Supply**: The output of ferrosilicon remained stable, and the production enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand remained stable, the pig iron output increased, and the steel output increased [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased, and the average available days of downstream users decreased [6]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the main contract of ferromanganese decreased, and the spot prices remained stable. The basis and spreads changed [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in some regions decreased slightly, and the production profit remained stable [6]. - **Supply**: The production of ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the operating rate decreased [6]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand increased slightly, and the procurement volume of steel mills remained stable [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the average available days increased [6]. - **Manganese Ore**: The global manganese ore shipment decreased, the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory increased [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4] 2. Core Views - The market contradictions are insufficient, and the ore price is weakly oscillating. The spot trading of glass and soda ash is weak and stable, with their futures opening high and closing low. The cost center of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has shifted downwards, and their prices have reached new lows [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures oscillated weakly after opening higher. The overall spot market trading was weak and stable, showing improvement compared to the holiday [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: There were both ignition and water - release production lines recently. With ignition production lines not yet delivering goods, the supply pressure may be slightly relieved, and glass inventory decreased slightly. However, due to insufficient recovery of real - estate and deep - processing demand, the restocking intensity and sustainability were weak, and prices lacked upward momentum. In the later high - temperature and rainy season, it is not conducive to glass storage, so enterprises' intention to reduce inventory through sales may be stronger [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillatory [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash futures oscillated weakly after opening higher. The market demand was average, mainly for rigid - need procurement. The prices of light and heavy soda ash in North China and Central China decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Recently, the soda ash production has been steadily increasing, maintaining a loose state. Demand is relatively stable, with restocking at low prices. The growth of the photovoltaic industry has slowed down, and the room for increasing soda ash demand is limited. The pressure to reduce inventory is still large. It is expected that soda ash plants will intermittently reduce production for maintenance to relieve the inventory accumulation pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: As market sentiment further weakened, the silicomanganese futures oscillated downward, and the price reached a new low recently. The spot market of silicomanganese was running weakly. Factories basically stopped quoting prices and adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was also 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Affected by industry profits, silicomanganese production continued to decline. The molten iron production remained at a high level, and the demand for silicomanganese was resilient. Since the silicomanganese production capacity was sufficient, once the profit improved, the production could increase rapidly. Considering that the port inventory of manganese ore was in the stage of rising from a low level, it still provided some support for alloy costs. The near - month contract was continuously suppressed by warehouse receipts [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillatory [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: The ferrosilicon futures led the decline in the black - goods sector, showing overall weakness, and the price reached a new low recently. The spot market of ferrosilicon was running weakly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5450 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 6050 - 6100 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Although the demand remained strong, the ferrosilicon production still declined under the condition of losses. The manufacturers' inventory decreased from a high level, and the downstream enterprises' inventory remained at a low level. Due to the relatively loose ferrosilicon production capacity, the price would still be suppressed by high inventory. Attention should be paid to the impact of industrial policies on the black - goods sector in the future [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillatory [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It takes into account factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations to provide investment suggestions and price trend outlooks for each sector [2][4][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.85%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1169.3 billion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day. There were positive macro news such as the increase in the sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the "May Day" holiday. It is suggested to buy long positions in IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may return to fundamentals. With the weakening of manufacturing PMI in April, economic growth in the second quarter may be under pressure. The central bank's attitude towards liquidity remains supportive, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate downward in the long - run after short - term fluctuations [6] - **Precious Metals**: Although the prices of gold and silver were weak during the "May Day" holiday, the medium - term driving factors for the rise in gold prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on gold and wait to buy on dips after the correction. For silver, it is suggested to wait and see for now [7][8] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: During the "May Day" holiday, LME copper stocks decreased, and domestic refined copper production is expected to increase slightly in May. If the Sino - US trade situation eases, copper prices may continue to rise, but there are also pressures such as inflation expectations and weakening supply - demand relationships [11] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded during the holiday. If Sino - US relations improve, aluminum prices may rebound further, but the weakening domestic manufacturing industry poses a challenge to the demand for aluminum [12] - **Zinc**: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, and there is a risk of a decline in zinc prices due to the expected increase in social inventory and weakening downstream demand [13] - **Lead**: The lead market shows that lead ore inventory is rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and move in a box - shaped range in the medium - term [14][15] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel exceeds demand. With weakening downstream demand and the expected increase in intermediate product production in May, it is recommended to short nickel on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to ease in the future. With the impact of tariffs on demand, the price of tin may decline [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is under pressure due to weakening demand expectations, cost valuation decline, and the market may further test the industry's price acceptance [18] - **Alumina**: The supply surplus situation persists, and it is recommended to short on rallies [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost of raw materials is high, and supply is expected to tighten. The market for 304 stainless steel is expected to gradually improve [21] 3.3 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed a weakening trend. The overall supply - demand structure of steel has no obvious contradictions, but the market is affected by overseas exports and production restriction rumors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [23][24] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore shipments decreased slightly, and demand is expected to peak and decline. The price of the main contract is likely to be weak [25][26] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass is expected to be weak, and the supply of soda ash is at a high level. Although there is some support from demand, the medium - term supply is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak [27] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a downward trend. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [28][29] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is not recommended to buy on dips [34][35] 3.4 Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose slightly during the holiday. There are different views on the market, with bulls focusing on potential production cuts and bears on weak demand. It is recommended to take a moderately bullish short - term approach [37][39] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC's production increase has been realized. It is recommended to take profits on short positions on dips and consider short - term long positions in the positive spread [40] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41] - **Urea**: The market has high supply and low demand. If export restrictions are relaxed, it may boost the market. It is recommended to hold long positions for those who have already entered the market at low prices and wait for a better entry opportunity for new investors [42] - **Styrene**: The price of styrene is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in the price of pure benzene and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions [43][45] - **PVC**: The supply and demand of PVC are both weak. Although inventory is decreasing, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [46] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is decreasing, but the expected inventory reduction has not been realized. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [47] - **PTA**: The supply of PTA is still in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. However, the short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies following the trend of crude oil [48] - **Para - Xylene**: PX is also in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. The short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies with the trend of crude oil [49] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The supply of PE may be under pressure in the second quarter, and the price is expected to fluctuate [50] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The cost of PP has some support, and the price is expected to be slightly bearish in May [51] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price fluctuated slightly during the holiday. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term market sentiment and wait and see in the short - term [54] - **Eggs**: The egg price was stable during the holiday, but it is expected to be weak in May. It is recommended to short on rallies [55] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of domestic soybean meal is expected to decline in the future due to sufficient supply, while the price of US soybeans has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading rhythm [56][58] - **Oils and Fats**: The price of palm oil is under pressure due to production increase and other factors. The demand for US soybean oil may be boosted. The price of oils and fats is expected to decline, but there is a possibility of support in the medium - term if the macro - economy stabilizes [59][61] - **Sugar**: The supply of raw sugar is expected to increase, and the price may decline. The domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but there is a risk of decline in the future [62][64] - **Cotton**: Affected by tariffs and the end of the consumption peak season, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes [65][66]