文字早评 2025/12/12 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、中央经济工作会议：灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕；推动投资止跌回稳， 适当增加中央预算内投资规模；深入整治"内卷式"竞争，持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革； 2、有市场消息称量化交易在交易所的设备将被清退，多家券商相关负责人回应：目前尚未接到具体通 知； 3、商务部：推动安世荷兰尽快派员来华； 4、LME 铜价创下纪录新高 突破每吨 11790 美元。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.28%/-0.65%/-1.22%/-2.16%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.12%/-0.95%/-2.67%/-5.53%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.10%/-1.22%/-3.41%/-6.72%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.24%/-0.48%/-0.51%/-0.98%。 【策略观点】 年底部分资金兑现收益，市场面临一定的不确定性。但从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，中 长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周四，TL 主力合约收于 113.190 ...

股指 【行情资讯】 1、央行金融时报评论：将坚持内需主导放在首位； 2、国家发改委：综合整治"内卷式"竞争和培育发展新动能 深化拓展"人工智能+"行动； 3、三部门：合理确定贷款发放比例、期限和利率 加快推动个人消费贷款业务发展； 4、SpaceX 正式向员工通报 2026 年 IPO 计划，整体估值约 8000 亿美元。 期指基差比例： 文字早评 2025/12/15 星期一 宏观金融类 IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.15%/-0.55%/-1.09%/-2.01%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.06%/-0.76%/-2.38%/-5.22%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.12%/-1.15%/-3.41%/-6.66%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.26%/-0.49%/-0.50%/-0.94%。 【策略观点】 年底部分资金兑现收益，市场面临一定的不确定性。但从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，中 长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周五，TL 主力合约收于 112.470 ，环比变化-0.64%；T 主力合约收于 107.985 ，环比变 化- ...

2025年12月15日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 单暂时止盈。 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦反复，美联储货币政策意外转向 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 市场表现：周五夜盘铜价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | 基本面：周五美股大幅走弱，市场讨论甲骨文和博通财报不及预期，风险偏好整体下行。供应端，铜矿紧张 | | | | | 格局延续，周度 TC 继续小幅下滑。精铜依然担忧伦敦挤仓，伦敦注销占比维持在 40%。国内精废价差 | 4400 | | | | 元附近，废铜票点上行 1.5%。 | | | | | 交易策略：观望等待买点。 | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 市场表现：周五电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.91%，收于 22170 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-155 | 元/吨， | | | | LME 价格 2875 美元/吨。 | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | 铝 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively exploring and positioning itself in the fields of green methanol, green ethanol, and green aviation kerosene through a capital increase in its subsidiary Shanghai Jiayi Rongyuan Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. [1] Group 1: Capital Increase Details - The company’s board approved a capital increase for Shanghai Jiayi Rongyuan at a price of 1.00 yuan per registered capital, totaling an increase of 200 million yuan [1] - The total contribution for this capital increase amounts to 200 million yuan, with the company and its wholly-owned subsidiary Jiaye Boyang Technology Co., Ltd. contributing 172.75 million yuan and 17.25 million yuan respectively, while another shareholder, Jinyuan Rongtai Investment Management (Ningxia) Co., Ltd., contributed 10 million yuan [1] - After the capital increase, the registered capital of Shanghai Jiayi Rongyuan will be 255 million yuan, with the company's direct ownership percentage decreasing from 95% to 88.24%, while Jiaye Boyang's ownership will increase from 0% to 6.76% [1]

Group 1 - The establishment of Ningxia Taihe Jiasheng Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. has been officially registered with a legal representative named Ran Xiangcun and a registered capital of 1 million RMB [1] - The company's business scope includes the sale of various chemical products, petroleum products, graphite and carbon products, coal and its products, and a wide range of other materials and equipment related to chemical and energy industries [1] - The company is authorized to conduct business activities independently based on its business license, except for projects that require legal approval [1]

其他品种方面，多晶硅、沪锌、国际铜主力合约涨超2%，沪铜、铂、工业硅、沪金和钯主力合约涨超 1%。 油价走弱能化全线下挫液化气单日跌超4% 金属板块"抱团"拉涨的同时，能化板块延续集体弱势。12日截至收盘时，除焦煤继续大跌超4%以外， 液化石油气（LPG）更是以4.55%的跌幅"力压"焦煤，成为当天的领跌品种。盘中LPG主力合约一举刷 新了逾一个半月的新低。进入12月以来，LPG整体走势转弱，在过去的两周，LPG整体以承压阴跌为 主，但12日跌势突然加速，单日减仓超6100手，多头离场迹象明显。成本端原油价格持续走弱的背景 下，国内港口液化气库存环比显著增加，更是削弱了LPG市场多头的信心。隆众资讯最新数据显示，截 至12月11日当周，中国液化气港口样本库存量环比增加8.84万吨至283.44万吨，增幅达3.22%。当下LPG 下游工业需求淡季进一步显现，但供应端又面临进口充足和主营炼厂产量稳增的压力，供强需弱的基本 面下，港口累库趋势明显，令LPG市场悲观氛围明显。 新华财经北京12月12日电 国内商品期货市场周五（12月12日）在金属板块几乎全线走强的带动下，震 荡趋强。截至收盘时，中证商品期货价格指数收 ...

Core Viewpoint - Donghua Energy is focusing on hydrogen storage, low-altitude aircraft, aerospace, and building reinforcement applications, expressing confidence in future capacity release [1] Group 1 - The company has engaged with several clients regarding its products [1] - Donghua Energy is collaborating with Shandong University to establish a research institute [1] - The company is actively developing new applications for carbon fiber through joint research with downstream customers [1]

下游存降负预期,内盘高估值松动 风险因素:极端天气;地缘局势;炼厂意外停车。 中信期货研究所 能源化工团队 量新动态 2025年12月12日,LPG主力合约下跌超3%。 下跌原因 近期LPG基差较往年同期持续偏低，内外盘价差偏高，PDH盘面利润不断下挫，12月11日新增仓单865手，叠加市场对PDH降负预期增强，盘面大幅下挫, 基本面情况 海外方面，伴生气高供应格局延续，美国C3年存持续高位，但11月以来印度为代表的海外旺季需求略超预期，海外价格稳中偏强运行。国内供应偏紧前期主要体现在主营炼厂检修带来的LPG9 故量同比明显偏低，且PDH开工持续坐挺，基本面呈现强现实弱预期格局，近期随着炼厂开工率企稳回升，进口量延续同期高位运行，强现实局面边际松动，PDH降负预期的增强亦对基本面转 弱形成助力。 后市展望 盘面下挫后肉盘粉价相较外盘以及相较现货的高估值均有所改善，国内特厂外放量边际增加、海外高供应延续背景下LPG供应压力的超级，海外季节性需求支撑下下行节奏预计仍有波折。原 油偏弱预期下后续仍以关注逢高空配及3-4价差反套为主，节奏上主要关注PDH降量的兑现情况。 风险提示 图表 1:中国液化气商品量 万吨 2 ...

A股低开高走，截至收盘，上证指数涨0.41%，深证成指涨0.84%，创业板指涨0.97%，北证50涨 0.31%。全市场成交额2.12万亿元，较上日成交额放量2335亿元。 板块题材上， 电网设备、贵金属、半 导体设备板块活跃，零售、海南板块调整。 ETF方面，半导体设备板块全线拉升，华夏基金科创半导体ETF、华泰柏瑞基金科创半导体设备 ETF和科创半导体设备ETF鹏华分别涨5%、4.98%和4.52%。智能电网板块表现强势，华夏基金电网设 备ETF、广发基金电网ETF分别涨3.49%、3.26%。隔夜道指收涨，鹏华基金道琼斯ETF涨2.84%。港股 久违反弹，广发基金港股通非银ETF涨2.84%。 能源化工板块走低，能源化工ETF跌1%，化工ETF跌0.54%。隔夜美股科技股走弱，纳指科技 ETF、纳指科技ETF分别跌0.85%和0.69%。 （责任编辑：贺翀 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun ...

Market Overview - The market has shown signs of recovery with all three major indices closing in the green. The commercial aerospace sector continues to perform strongly, while the electric grid equipment sector has seen a rapid increase. Semiconductor equipment stocks have also been active, although the retail sector has experienced a decline [1]. ETF Performance - The following ETFs related to the semiconductor sector have shown significant gains: - Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170.SH) increased by 5% with an estimated scale of 3.3287 billion - Sci-Tech Semiconductor Equipment ETF (588710.SH) rose by 4.98% with an estimated scale of 0.7738 billion - Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516.SZ) gained 3.88% with an estimated scale of 6.4818 billion - Electric Grid Equipment ETF (159326.SZ) increased by 3.26% with an estimated scale of 0.1159 billion [2]. Semiconductor Industry Insights - Institutions indicate that semiconductor equipment is positioned upstream in the supply chain, serving as a core industry supporting chip manufacturing and packaging. The year 2025 is anticipated to be a significant year for the growth of domestic semiconductor equipment orders and performance realization. The evolution of storage technology towards 3D, driven by AI models, along with the expansion projects of domestic storage giants, is expected to usher in a new phase of rapid growth opportunities for the domestic semiconductor equipment supply chain [2]. AI Applications and Consumer Electronics - Recent developments include Alibaba's launch of AI glasses and Doubao's introduction of an AI mobile assistant, suggesting a potential acceleration in breakthroughs within edge AI applications. Brokerages recommend focusing on the consumer electronics supply chain related to edge AI, as well as the domestic computing power supply chain, including chips, storage, servers, and the release of advanced process capacities [3].