投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-06-25 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.50 | 49.00 | 49.50 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.30 | 50.40 | 51.10 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 22871.00 11591.00 | 20623.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | 202506 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of integrating technological innovation with industrial needs to drive transformation and upgrade in various sectors, particularly in engineering machinery [3] - The People's Bank of China announced eight policy measures aimed at enhancing Shanghai's international financial center status, including the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center and improvements in cross-border payment systems [4][5] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration highlighted the need for open cooperation in financial reform, supporting foreign investment in green finance, and enhancing the multi-tiered pension insurance system [6][7] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission aims to promote the integration of technological and industrial innovation, introducing measures to enhance the role of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board as a testing ground for reforms [8][9] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to establish a more convenient and open foreign exchange management system, focusing on enhancing the service quality for the real economy and deepening reforms in direct investment foreign exchange management [10][11] - The Central Financial Committee and the Shanghai Municipal Government issued opinions to accelerate the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, focusing on financial market development and enhancing service quality for the real economy [12][13] Group 3 - The signing of the "Shanghai-Hong Kong International Financial Center Collaborative Development Action Plan" aims to enhance cooperation between the two regions in areas such as cross-border clearing and digital RMB applications [14][15]

6月24日，央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，要求夯实宏观经 济金融基础，支持居民就业增收，优化保险保障，积极培育消费需求；强化结构性货币政策工具激 励，加大对服务消费重点领域信贷支持，发展债券、股权等多元化融资渠道。 中国人民银行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》 贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，完善扩大消费长效机制，更好满足消费领域金融服务需求，近日中 国人民银行、国家发展改革委、财政部、商务部、金融监管总局、中国证监会等六部门联合印发《关于 金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》（以下简称《意见》）。 《意见》以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入践行金融工作的政治性、人民性，引导金 融机构从消费供给和需求两端强化金融服务，满足各类主体多样化融资需求，推动扩大高质量消费供 给，助力释放消费增长潜能。《意见》从支持增强消费能力、扩大消费领域金融供给、挖掘释放居民消 费潜力、促进提升消费供给效能、优化消费环境和政策支撑保障等六个方面提出19项重点举措。 《意见》指出，要夯实宏观经济金融基础，支持居民就业增收，优化保险保障，积极培育消费需求。强 化结构性货 ...

事关提振和扩大消费，央行等六部门重磅发文。 6月24日，据中国人民银行网站消息，近日中国人民银行、国家发展改革委、财政部、商务部、金融监管总 局、中国证监会等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》（以下简称《意见》）。 《意见》指出，要夯实宏观经济金融基础，支持居民就业增收，优化保险保障，积极培育消费需求。强化结构 性货币政策工具激励，加大对服务消费重点领域信贷支持，发展债券、股权等多元化融资渠道。 《意见》强调，要聚焦消费重点领域加大金融支持，结合消费场景和特点创新金融产品，持续推动消费领域金 融服务提质增效。优化消费支付服务，健全消费领域信用体系建设，加强金融消费权益保护。 下一步，中国人民银行将会同有关部门加快推动《意见》各项政策实施落地，强化跟踪监测，指导金融机构持 续加大消费领域金融支持力度，为更好发挥消费对经济发展的基础性作用提供有力金融支撑。 券商中国记者梳理了《意见》的十大要点： 1、实施好货币政策，加强逆周期和跨周期调节，综合运用准备金、再贷款再贴现、公开市场操 作等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，持续推动社会综合融资成本下降。 2、实施好财政政策，更好发挥消费在畅通国民经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key developments and policies announced during the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, emphasizing the integration of technology and industry, financial reforms, and the establishment of Shanghai as an international financial center [3][4][6][12]. Policy Highlights - Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of high-end, intelligent, and green development in the engineering machinery industry, advocating for the integration of technological innovation with industrial needs [3]. - Vice Premier He Lifeng encouraged enterprises to focus on their core businesses and innovate in products and technologies while adapting to the new development pattern of dual circulation [3]. Financial Governance - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng proposed eight policy measures to enhance global financial governance, including the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center and improvements in cross-border payment systems [4][5]. - The measures aim to strengthen Shanghai's position as an international financial center and improve the international monetary system [4][5]. Financial Regulation - Financial Regulatory Administration Chief Li Yunzhe emphasized the importance of open cooperation in financial reform, supporting foreign investment in green finance, and enhancing the multi-pillar pension system [6][7]. - The administration plans to collaborate with the Shanghai government to promote the development of Shanghai as an international financial hub [6][7]. Capital Market Development - CSRC Chairman Wu Qing announced initiatives to promote the integration of technological and industrial innovation, including reforms to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and measures to support technology-driven companies [8][9]. - The focus is on enhancing the capital market's role in supporting innovation and improving the financial service system for technology enterprises [8][9]. Foreign Exchange Management - SAFE Chief Zhu Hexin outlined plans for a more convenient, open, secure, and intelligent foreign exchange management system, including reforms to direct investment foreign exchange management and enhancing the foreign exchange market [10][11]. - The goal is to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market while supporting the real economy [10][11]. Shanghai International Financial Center - The Central Financial Committee and the Shanghai government issued opinions to accelerate the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, focusing on market development, institutional capacity, and financial infrastructure [12][13]. - The plan includes enhancing cross-border trade and investment facilitation and improving the financial service quality for the real economy [12][13]. Hong Kong-Shanghai Cooperation - The signing of the "Shanghai-Hong Kong International Financial Center Collaborative Development Action Plan" aims to enhance cooperation in financial services, infrastructure connectivity, and cross-border payment systems [14][15]. - The action plan includes 38 measures to strengthen collaboration in various financial sectors, including green finance and technology [14][15].

《意见》以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入践行金融工作的政治性、人民性，引导金融 机构从消费供给和需求两端强化金融服务，满足各类主体多样化融资需求，推动扩大高质量消费供给，助 力释放消费增长潜能。《意见》从支持增强消费能力、扩大消费领域金融供给、挖掘释放居民消费潜力、 促进提升消费供给效能、优化消费环境和政策支撑保障等六个方面提出 19 项重点举措。 为贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，完善扩大消费长效机制，更好满足消费领域金融服务需求，近日中 国人民银行、国家发展改革委、财政部、商务部、金融监管总局、中国证监会等六部门联合印发《关于金 融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》（以下简称《意见》）。 《意见》指出，要夯实宏观经济金融基础，支持居民就业增收，优化保险保障，积极培育消费需求。强化 结构性货币政策工具激励，加大对服务消费重点领域信贷支持，发展债券、股权等多元化融资渠道。 《意见》强调，要聚焦消费重点领域加大金融支持，结合消费场景和特点创新金融产品，持续推动消费领 域金融服务提质增效。优化消费支付服务，健全消费领域信用体系建设，加强金融消费权益保护。 下一步，中国人民银行将会同有关部门加快推动《意见 ...

策略报告 | 投资策略 美国下场伊以：全球的十字路口 证券研究报告 国内外政策导向分析 上周（6.16-6.20）海外政策聚焦于美联储6月FOMC会议再度拖延降息，美联 储延续了自2023年12月以来的"按兵不动"策略；美联储发布半年度货币政策 报告，其中认为评估关税对经济的影响还为时过早，尚未出现在官方数据中。 上周（6.16-6.20）国内政策主要聚焦于习近平出席第二届中国-中亚峰会并发 表主旨演讲；国务院总理李强在江苏调研；习近平和李强会见来华进行正式访问 的新西兰总理拉克森；货币财政方面，央行行长潘功胜在2025陆家嘴论坛宣布八 大政策；外管局坚定推进外汇领域深层次改革和高水平开放；潘功胜出席陆家嘴 论坛并发表演讲思考全球金融治理；资本市场方面，证监会主席吴清出席陆家嘴 论坛；证监会发布《关于在科创板设置科创成长层 增强制度包容性适应性的意 见》；产业方面，三大期货交易所扩大合格境外投资者参与商品期货、期权交易范 围；中国银行间市场支持汽车企业高质量发展座谈会召开；官方宣布消费品以旧 换新后续将重启；地产方面，深圳出台《拆除重建类城市更新单元保障性住房配 建规定》；其他金融政策方面，金管总局发布《货币 ...

Company Insights - Tesla's stock surged over 8%, marking its largest single-day increase since April 28, as the company launched approximately 10 autonomous taxis in Austin, Texas, charging a flat fare of $4.2 per ride [2] - JinkoSolar's high-efficiency N-type monocrystalline silicon cells and N-type TOPCon high-efficiency photovoltaic modules received third-party certification, indicating advancements in solar technology [14] Industry Insights - The Chinese government, through nine departments, issued a plan for the high-quality development of the gold industry, aiming for a 5%-10% increase in gold resource volume and over 5% growth in gold and silver production by 2027 [3] - The solar power sector experienced a record-breaking installation of over 90 GW in May, representing a staggering 388% increase compared to the same month last year, with a total of 197.85 GW added from January to May 2025, reflecting a nearly 150% year-on-year growth [4] - The cobalt market is expected to see a new price surge due to the Democratic Republic of the Congo extending its cobalt export ban by three months, with domestic cobalt prices projected to exceed 250,000 yuan per ton [10] - The automotive industry is focusing on smart and connected vehicles, with a target for L2 and above level intelligent connected cars to account for over 90% of new vehicles by 2027, indicating significant growth potential in related sectors [11] - The GLP-1 weight loss drug market in China is projected to exceed 15 billion yuan by 2025, driven by an expanding obese population, policy support, and technological advancements [12]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market and macroeconomic conditions in China, particularly regarding interest rates and fiscal policies [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Outlook**: The bond market is expected to experience a wide range of fluctuations in the second half of the year, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to range between 1.5% and 1.8% [2][3][11]. 2. **Monetary Policy**: There is an expectation that monetary policy will not undergo significant easing, with limited room for interest rate cuts and a potential 50 basis points for reserve requirement ratio adjustments [3][7]. 3. **Fiscal Stimulus**: A new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion is anticipated, with 100 billion allocated for private investment, which is expected to have a significant multiplier effect on GDP [5][6]. 4. **GDP Growth Target**: The GDP growth target for the year is around 5%, with expectations that investment will precede consumption in driving this growth [6][5]. 5. **Impact of External Tariffs**: The negative impact of external tariffs on exports is expected to be less severe than previously anticipated, with a gradual improvement in data post-June [4][5]. 6. **Debt Supply**: The total supply of bonds is projected to be around 6.88 trillion, with a monthly net financing of approximately 1.15 trillion, which is stable compared to previous years [8][9]. 7. **Institutional Behavior**: Institutional behaviors are expected to influence the bond market significantly, with banks and insurance companies adjusting their strategies based on market conditions [10][12][17]. 8. **Credit Market Performance**: The credit market is expected to outperform interest rate products, with strategies suggested for public institutions to adopt diagonal strategies for credit yield [30][31]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Consumer Spending**: The government has approved 300 billion for consumer spending, with 160 billion already in progress, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate consumption [6]. - **Long-term Rate Predictions**: Long-term interest rates are expected to gradually decline, potentially reaching below 1.5% by the end of 2025 or 2026, although significant downward movement is limited [29]. - **Market Sensitivity**: There is an increasing sensitivity of the macroeconomic environment to changes in the debt financial cycle, which may affect future predictions and risk assessments [32]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, focusing on the bond market, monetary policy, fiscal measures, and broader economic implications.

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 宏观定期 政策半月观—下半年政策有 4 大节点 近半月，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在伦敦举行，陆家嘴论坛召开。我们对每 半月重大政策进行跟踪：1）中央、部委重要会议与政策；2）地方政策；3） 行业与产业政策。本期为近半月（2025.6.9-6.22）的政策跟踪。 核心结论：总体看，近半月政策延续聚焦稳增长、扩内需，具体有 6 大焦点： 一是 6.9-10 中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在伦敦举行，聚焦关税和稀土，本次 会议后中美关税水平保持现状，但随着 7.9（对全球）和 8.12（对中国）两个 暂缓期结束，继续紧盯后续美国与中国、欧盟等关税谈判。二是 6.17 总书记 出席第二节中国-中亚峰会并作主旨发言，继 4 月东南亚之行、5 月访问俄罗 斯，6 月来到中亚，也是今年以来第三次元首出访聚焦周边，此次峰会聚焦共 建"一带一路"、人员往来便利化、绿色矿产、贸易畅通等领域。三是 6.18 陆 家嘴论坛开幕，"一行一会一局"一把手出席开幕式并发表主题演讲，其中， 央行将在上海实施 8 项金融开放政策，金监总局聚焦支持上海金融开放，证 ...