Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" relative to the market [6] Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, putting pressure on precious metal prices, while industrial metals like aluminum maintain strong momentum due to supply concerns [10][11] - Lithium carbonate prices are rising as downstream demand recovers, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance in the lithium market [19] - The rare earth market is experiencing significant price volatility, particularly in the praseodymium-neodymium sector, while heavy rare earths continue to decline [23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical issues have not eased, leading to pressure on precious metal prices. Short-term trends show a challenging environment for price increases, while long-term investment value remains intact [10][11] - Key stocks to watch include Zhaojin Mining, Zhongjin, and Zijin Mining in A-shares, and Tongguan, Shanjin, and Zhaokang in H-shares [12] Industrial Metals - The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to support aluminum prices, with a strong demand outlook for copper driven by tight fundamentals and potential inflationary pressures from U.S. fiscal policies [13][18] - Key stocks to monitor include Zijin, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and Hongqiao in aluminum [18] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise due to increased production and recovering demand from the battery sector, with imports from Chile showing significant growth [19][20] - Key stocks in the lithium sector include Ganfeng Lithium, Yahua, and Tianhua [20] Other Minor Metals - The rare earth market is experiencing sharp price fluctuations, particularly in the praseodymium-neodymium sector, while heavy rare earths are on a downward trend [23][24] - Key stocks to consider include Hunan Gold, China Rare Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten [24]

Group 1 - The ongoing Middle East conflict is significantly impacting global capital markets, with major U.S. stock indices experiencing declines and oil prices surpassing $100 for two consecutive days [3][14]. - The S&P 500 index has seen a continuous decline for three weeks, while the technology sector is particularly weak, with major tech stocks like META and Apple dropping by nearly 4% and over 2% respectively [6][8]. - Despite the downturn in U.S. tech stocks, Chinese concept stocks have mostly risen, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 0.76% [8]. Group 2 - Storage-related stocks have shown resilience, with companies like SanDisk and Micron Technology seeing significant gains, attributed to increased demand driven by AI spending [10][11]. - Analysts have raised Micron's target price, indicating strong market confidence in its potential, especially in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) [11]. - The storage chip industry is entering a new phase, with executives suggesting that price increases may become the "new normal" due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [12]. Group 3 - Oil prices have continued to rise, with WTI and Brent crude oil futures closing at $97.21 and $103.90 per barrel respectively, marking a significant increase [14][15]. - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to heightened volatility in the markets, with implied volatility indices reaching levels not seen since last year's significant market events [20][21]. - The overall market has experienced a substantial loss in value, with trillions of dollars evaporating from global stock markets due to the escalating conflict [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - If stagflation arrives, the recommended asset allocation is to hold cash and gold, and wait for opportunities to invest in stocks and bonds. Stocks may decline due to rising costs and recession expectations, while US bonds' yield growth may slow down in the later stage. Commodities may first rise and then fall, with gold being relatively stable. The US dollar index may perform strongly [2][8][15]. - Historically, global stagflation often accompanies high oil prices. Once stagflation forms, stock and bond prices may decline due to rising prices and tight monetary policies. However, the decline this time may be less severe [11][15][28]. - The pricing logic of gold has changed in recent years. New demands from global order changes and government debt over - issuance determine the gold price, so the impact of interest rate hikes on gold is limited [11][30]. - The US dollar may perform well, benefiting from cash - holding demand, interest rate hikes, and rising oil prices [11][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Global Stagflation History Review - **Relationship between Oil Prices and Stagflation**: Historically, high and long - term oil prices often lead to global stagflation. For example, after the Fourth Middle East War, the Iran - Iraq War, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict, stagflation occurred. During the Fourth Middle East War, the oil price rose from $2.7 per barrel before the war to $13 per barrel in early 1974; during the Iran - Iraq War, the oil price rose from $33.6 per barrel before the war to $40 per barrel within two months; during the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the oil price rose from over $80 per barrel before the war to over $120 per barrel in June 2022 [11][17][20]. - **Asset Performance after Stagflation**: - **Fourth Middle East War**: Global stocks and bonds fell, while commodities were strong. The US federal funds rate rose, leading to a global economic slowdown. Stocks generally declined, long - term bond yields rose, and most commodities increased, except for copper which declined significantly after the economic slowdown. The US dollar index benefited from rising interest rates [20]. - **Iran - Iraq War**: Stocks, bonds, and commodities were all affected, while the US dollar index was outstanding. Stocks had already declined significantly before the war, so the decline this time was less severe. High inflation dragged down the bond market, and commodity prices fell due to economic recession and high interest rates. The new international monetary system made the gold price worse, while the US dollar index rose [22][23]. - **Russia - Ukraine Conflict**: Stocks, bonds, and commodities were all damaged, while the US dollar performed well. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control inflation, causing stocks to decline again. The bond markets in Europe and the US declined, while the Chinese bond market benefited from loose policies. Commodities generally fell, with gold rising first and then falling, and industrial metals declining due to recession expectations. Only the US dollar index benefited from interest rate hikes [25]. Global Asset Performance - **Overview**: In the latest week (March 2 - 8), crude oil was the only asset that performed well, driving soybean meal to rise slightly. The US dollar index rebounded due to cash demand and rising oil prices, while silver plunged and the equity market was generally weak. Crude oil was strong because of supply shortages caused by the Iran - US conflict, and silver led the decline due to inflation expectations and a strong US dollar [37][43]. - **Specific Asset Performance**: - **Stock Market**: Global major stock indexes fell across the board, with emerging market indexes, the French CAC, and the German DAX falling by more than 6%. A - share styles were divided, with large - cap and value stocks performing better than small - cap and growth stocks. The Shanghai Composite 50 was basically flat, while the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 fell by more than 1% [46]. - **Bond Market**: Global bond yields rose significantly due to potential inflation pressure. The yield of the Brazilian 10 - year government bond rose by more than 50BP, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in France, the US, and Germany rose by more than 10BP. The yield of the Chinese 10 - year government bond fell slightly [49]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The US dollar index was strong, and the Brazilian real depreciated the most against the US dollar. The Chinese yuan appreciated against the US dollar, and non - US currencies were under pressure, with both emerging and developed market exchange rate indexes falling [49]. - **Commodity Market**: The commodity market was divided. Energy prices rose, with crude oil soaring and natural gas rising for the first time in six weeks. Precious metals and industrial metals performed poorly due to a strong US dollar and asset re - allocation. Aluminum rose by more than 6%, and agricultural products showed mixed performance [53]. - **Volatility**: Commodity volatility was close to historical extremes, with the implied volatility of precious metals and crude oil exceeding the 95% historical range. Stock index volatility was relatively high, and the volatility of the foreign exchange and bond markets increased compared to the previous week [56].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [17]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 4134 points, while sectors such as battery, wind power equipment, infrastructure, and electronic components performed well [2][3]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 17.02 times and 49.86 times, respectively, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][16]. - The market's trading volume reached 24,175 billion, above the median of the past three years, indicating robust trading activity [3][16]. - The recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to global market volatility, with rising oil prices causing concerns about "stagflation," which has dampened risk appetite [3][16]. - Domestic macroeconomic policies are becoming clearer, providing a solid support base for the market, with the central bank indicating a flexible approach to monetary policy [3][16]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On March 13, the A-share market showed slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4095.45 points, down 0.81%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14280.78 points, down 0.65% [7][8]. - Over 60% of stocks declined, with wind power equipment and household appliances among the top gainers, while small metals and oil and gas extraction sectors lagged [7][9]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to maintain slight fluctuations, with a focus on sectors such as battery, wind power equipment, electronic components, and photovoltaic equipment for short-term investment opportunities [3][16]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments [3][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is affected by geopolitical conflicts, silver requires attention to liquidity contraction, copper's price increase is restricted by inventory growth, zinc shows a weak oscillating trend, lead's price is pressured by domestic inventory increase, tin is in an oscillating adjustment, aluminum is in a high - level oscillation, alumina's cost is rising, casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, platinum is pressured by geopolitical disputes, palladium is hovering at a low level, nickel's reality is supported by tight ore supply but its elasticity is restricted by smelting inventory accumulation, and stainless steel is affected by macro - risk preference with an upward - shifted cost center [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,153.06 with a daily decline of 2.45%, and the night - session closing price was 1,144.20 with a decline of 0.22%. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 418,498, an increase of 25,719 from the previous day, and the position was 126,419, a decrease of 13,351 [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 105,033 kilograms, a decrease of 27 kilograms from the previous day [5]. - **News**: Iran's new leader stated that revenge will not be given up, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and new battlefronts may be opened if necessary. Bond traders are no longer certain that the Fed will cut interest rates this year [5]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21,854 with a daily increase of 0.86%, and the night - session closing price was 21,546.00 with an increase of 1.53%. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 526,514, a decrease of 187,374 from the previous day, and the position was 150,089, a decrease of 11,077 [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 294,823 kilograms, a decrease of 12,661 kilograms from the previous day [5]. - **News**: Similar to gold, there are geopolitical and interest - rate - related news [5]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 101,010 with a daily decline of 0.14%, and the night - session closing price was 100,860 with a decline of 0.15%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 199,621, an increase of 28,612 from the previous day, and the position was 581,288, a decrease of 4,115 [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 326,327, an increase of 5,911 from the previous day, and the inventory of London Copper was 312,350, an increase of 275 [10]. - **News**: The US - Iran conflict is intensifying, Brent crude oil has closed above $100 per barrel for the first time in 13 months, and the private credit market is under redemption pressure, causing a sharp decline in US stocks. The US has made some progress in obtaining strategic minerals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, but there are issues such as regional conflicts and license disputes. Mongolia is seeking to renegotiate the "unfair" business terms of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine. Zambia aims to triple its copper production by 2031 [10][12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24,300 with a daily decline of 0.35%, and the closing price of the London Zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,313.5 with a decline of 0.81%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 109,003, an increase of 34,199 from the previous day, and the position was 72,726, a decrease of 1,494 [13]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 85,695 tons, an increase of 4,622 tons from the previous day, and the inventory of London Zinc was 98,750 tons, a decrease of 150 tons [13]. - **News**: The Trump administration plans to issue a 30 - day exemption order for the Jones Act to ease the logistics bottleneck of domestic fuel circulation. The shutdown of the Ras Laffan facility in Qatar has affected 20% of the global LNG supply, and Asian countries are facing a serious LNG shortage. The market no longer expects the Fed to cut interest rates this year [14][15]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,615 with a daily decline of 0.39%, and the closing price of the London Lead 3M electronic disk was 1,937.5 with a decline of 0.39%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 30,328, a decrease of 10,640 from the previous day, and the position was 62,266, an increase of 1,183 [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead was 63,269 tons, an increase of 6,371 tons from the previous day, and the inventory of London Lead was 284,500 tons, a decrease of 375 tons [16]. - **News**: The US - Iran conflict is intensifying, Brent crude oil has closed above $100 per barrel for the first time in 13 months, and the private credit market is under redemption pressure, causing a sharp decline in US stocks. The expectation of the Fed's easing policy is suppressed [17]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 393,500 with a daily decline of 0.89%, and the night - session closing price was 387,730 with a decline of 0.65%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 215,161, a decrease of 24,104 from the previous day, and the position was 33,098, a decrease of 884 [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 12,360, an increase of 2,329 from the previous day, and the inventory of London Tin was 8,630, an increase of 25 [20]. - **News**: Similar to other metals, there are geopolitical and macro - economic news [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 25,240, an increase of 25 from the previous day. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,865, a decrease of 4 from the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23,990, an increase of 105 from the previous day [23]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 131.00 million tons, an increase of 3.00 million tons from the previous day. The inventory of LME aluminum ingots was 44.73 million tons, a decrease of 0.28 million tons from the previous day [23]. - **News**: The US will launch a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners including China, the EU, India, and Japan. The US Treasury Secretary said that escorting will be carried out as soon as the situation allows, and the Energy Secretary said it may be this month [25]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 564.65 with a decline of 0.16%. The closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 416.60 with a decline of 1.80%. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 3,510 kilograms, a decrease of 2,485 from the previous day, and the position was 25,777, a decrease of 412 [26]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Platinum was 1 kilogram, and the inventory of NYMEX platinum was 582,441 ounces (previous day) [26]. - **News**: There are geopolitical news such as Trump's remarks on oil prices and Iran's stance [29]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 138,100, an increase of 940 from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,285, an increase of 70 from the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 491,504, an increase of 182,325 from the previous day, and the trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 253,505, an increase of 44,161 from the previous day [30]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026. The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala. There are also news about production quotas, accidents, and sanctions in the nickel industry [30][31][35].

Core Viewpoint - The current global market is dominated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the strong stance of Iran's new leadership threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, leading to significant adjustments in oil supply forecasts and a surge in commodity prices [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Commodities - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly lowered its oil supply growth expectations, labeling the situation as the "largest supply disruption in history," which has resulted in oil prices soaring over 10% [1] - The geopolitical risks are not limited to energy but are also affecting agricultural products through trade routes for palm oil and fertilizers, exacerbating global inflation uncertainties [1] - The U.S. is reportedly planning to temporarily waive the Jones Act to increase domestic transportation capacity in response to rising oil prices [1] Group 2: Key Commodities and Market Reactions - Oil prices continue to rise, with the U.S. President indicating that military actions against Iran will not conclude soon, and the G7 energy ministers have not reached an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves [2][12] - The European shipping index (EC) has increased by 3.07%, indicating challenges in maintaining pricing amid traditional low demand seasons, with Maersk and MSC adjusting their rates [3][29] - U.S. stock indices have declined, with a market turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan, as the focus shifts from broad market gains to selective investments in companies with strong earnings [3][10] Group 3: Financial and Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China is committed to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth, with recent operations indicating a focus on liquidity [7] - The U.S. oil inventory has decreased by 1.7 million barrels as of March 6, 2026, reflecting ongoing supply constraints [13] - The market is expected to transition from a phase driven by expectations to one driven by actual earnings, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and improved performance [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous recommendation of over - allocating stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight, and relatively recommends allocating TS and TF [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic commodity futures market, most contracts closed higher, with energy products leading the gains. Low - sulfur fuel oil rose 14.83%, and other sectors also showed different trends [1]. - For the US dollar monetary policy expectations, it's important to judge the stage of the current geopolitical conflict, which affects the market's long - term inflation and economic judgments. The Fed will respond when long - term inflation expectations change. It's too early to discuss the duration of the war, and a neutral scenario is recommended as the benchmark for asset allocation [1]. - After the release of the "Report", the market's policy expectations for the first half of the year will gradually converge, and then shift to the verification stage of real data [1]. - In the short term, the performance of stock indices may enter a shock - adjustment period, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions. Investors are advised to pay attention to geopolitical events and domestic economic data before re - evaluating asset cost - effectiveness and portfolio construction strategies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Most contracts closed higher, with energy products leading the gains. Low - sulfur fuel oil rose 14.83%, asphalt in chemicals rose 5.68%, PVC in non - metallic building materials rose 4.40%, the container shipping index (European line) in shipping futures rose 3.07%, palm oil in oils and fats rose 2.43%, coking coal in the black series rose 2.13%, eggs in agricultural and sideline products rose 0.58%, industrial silicon in new energy materials rose 0.41%, Shanghai silver in precious metals fell 2.51%, and Shanghai tin in base metals fell 0.89% [1]. - **Financial Market**: The CSI 300 futures fell 0.5%, the SSE 50 futures fell 0.52%, the CSI 500 futures fell 0.74%, and the CSI 1000 futures fell 0.46%. The 2 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.01%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.01%, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.05%. The US dollar index rose 0.32%, and other indices also showed different changes [7]. - **Industry Index**: The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose 1.24%, the national defense and military industry index fell 2.39%, and other industry indices also had different daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes [8][9]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 5.94%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 6.64%, COMEX gold fell 1.11%, and other overseas commodities also showed different price changes [10][11]. - **Domestic Main Commodities**: The container shipping index (European line) rose 3.2%, gold fell 0.34%, silver fell 0.88%, and other domestic commodities also had different price fluctuations [12][13][14]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Stock Indices**: Due to the convergence of policy boost expectations and overseas event shocks, stock indices may enter a shock - adjustment period, and it's necessary to observe domestic economic data to form the next round of trend [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Constrained by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions, their performance may be affected [1]. - **TS, TF**: Relatively recommended for allocation [1]. 3.3 Short - term Judgment of Each Variety - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to be shock - strong, stock index options are expected to be shock, and Treasury bond futures are expected to be shock [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be shock [4]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping European line is expected to be shock [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc., are mostly expected to be shock, with some varieties having a shock - weak tendency [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most varieties are expected to be shock, with some having a shock - strong tendency [4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to be shock, with some having a shock - strong tendency [5]. - **Agriculture**: Oils, grains, and other varieties have different short - term trends, such as shock - strong, shock - weak, etc. [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices, particularly following Iran's Supreme Leader's statement about keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, which led to a significant increase in Brent crude oil prices by 9% to $100 per barrel and WTI crude oil by over 8% to $94.56 per barrel [1][4] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly revised down its oil supply growth forecast, projecting global oil demand growth to be 640,000 barrels per day by 2026, down from a previous estimate of 850,000 barrels per day, while global oil supply is expected to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day, down from 2.4 million barrels per day [4] - Analysts suggest that the future of oil prices will depend on geopolitical developments, particularly whether conflicts will cease and if oil-producing countries can restore production capacity, as well as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is affected by geopolitical conflicts; silver requires attention to liquidity contraction; the upward movement of the US dollar restricts the price increase of copper; zinc is in a range - bound oscillation; lead lacks driving forces and oscillates at a low level; tin is in an oscillatory adjustment; aluminum shows a strong - leaning oscillatory trend; the cost of alumina is rising; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum; platinum follows the retracement of gold and silver; palladium oscillates at a low level; the tight ore supply of nickel supports the current situation, while the inventory accumulation in smelting restricts its upward potential; stainless steel is affected by macro - risk preferences, and the actual cost center has shifted upward [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,153.06, with a daily decline of 2.45%, and the night - session closing price was 1144.20, with a decline of 0.22%. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 418,498, an increase of 25,719 from the previous day, and the position was 126,419, a decrease of 13,351 [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US inflation continued to cool down, with the CPI in February rising 2.4% year - on - year and the core CPI rising 2.5%, the smallest increase in nearly five years. Trump hinted that the military action against Iran was "about to end", and the IEA approved the release of a record - high 4 - billion - barrel crude oil reserve [7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 0 [7]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21854, with a daily increase of 0.86%, and the night - session closing price was 21546.00, with an increase of 1.53%. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 526,514, a decrease of 187,374 from the previous day, and the position was 150,089, a decrease of 11,077 [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, including US inflation data, Trump's remarks on Iran, and the IEA's release of crude oil reserves [7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Silver trend intensity is 0 [7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 101,150, with a daily decline of 0.36%, and the night - session closing price was 101310, with an increase of 0.16%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 171,009, a decrease of 75,827 from the previous day, and the position was 585,403, a decrease of 2,930 [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US inflation continued to cool down, and the IEA announced the release of a record - high crude oil reserve. The US made some progress in obtaining strategic minerals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, but faced challenges. Mongolia sought to renegotiate the "unfair" business terms of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine, and Zambia aimed to triple its copper production by 2031 [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24385, with a daily decline of 0.12%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 74804, a decrease of 29887 from the previous day, and the position was 74220, a decrease of 527 [11]. - **News**: The IEA approved the release of a record - high 4 - billion - barrel crude oil reserve, and the Trump administration was reported to start a trade investigation [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16680, with a daily increase of 0.18%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 40968, a decrease of 5562 from the previous day, and the position was 61083, an increase of 2926 [15]. - **News**: US inflation continued to cool down, and the IEA announced the release of a record - high crude oil reserve. Trump tried to downplay the threat of mining in the Strait of Hormuz, but the market still worried about the Middle East situation [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 392,740, with a daily decline of 0.71%, and the night - session closing price was 391,610, with a decline of 1.37%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 239,265, a decrease of 49,429 from the previous day, and the position was 33,982, a decrease of 994 [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US inflation continued to cool down, the IEA approved the release of a record - high crude oil reserve, and China's Ministry of National Defense called for an end to military actions in the Middle East [18][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 25215, with an increase of 335 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2869, with an increase of 30 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23885, with an increase of 205 compared to T - 1 [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: US inflation continued to cool down, but the Middle East conflict led to an increase in oil prices, and the market expected the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. The Iranian president proposed three conditions for ending the war [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1; alumina trend intensity is 1; aluminum alloy trend intensity is 1 [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 565.55, with an increase of 0.53%. The closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 424.25, with an increase of 0.17% [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US inflation data met market expectations, Trump said the war with Iran would end soon, and the IEA released 4 billion barrels of emergency oil reserves [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum trend intensity is 0; palladium trend intensity is 0 [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 137,160, with an increase of 110 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,215, with a decrease of 10 compared to T - 1 [29]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia planned to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore, some nickel mines in different regions had production - related news such as restarts, suspensions, and production quota adjustments [29][30][34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0; stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price briefly declined and then rebounded rapidly after the IEA member countries decided to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves. The supply risk and strong demand support the oil price to remain high before the key straits resume safe passage [1]. - Precious metals are in a historical high - level shock pattern, and attention should be paid to the war trend and energy price changes [2]. - The copper price trading rhythm is supported by spot buying interest, but the war situation and high visible inventory may still lead to copper price fluctuations [3]. - The aluminum price fluctuates strongly at a high level, and the previous high position has resistance. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical guidance [4]. - The prices of most commodities are affected by the geopolitical situation, and the market is in a state of shock, with different trends for different varieties. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: The IEA member countries released 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, the largest in history. The strategic reserves need to be replenished in the future. The situation in the Strait controlled by Iran is tense, and the supply risk and strong demand support the oil price to remain high [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: G7 announced joint oil release, but the passage prospects of the Strait of Hormuz are still uncertain. High - sulfur fuel oil faces supply loss pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weaker [21]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. - **Coal**: - **Coke**: The spot price is rising, the coking profit is average, and the inventory is slightly rising. The coke price is likely to rise due to energy concerns caused by geopolitical conflicts [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is rising, the supply is abundant, and the terminal inventory is declining. The coal price is likely to rise due to energy concerns, but the high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance data suppresses the price [17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in a historical high - level shock pattern. The US 2 - month unadjusted core CPI annual rate is 2.5%, in line with market expectations. The war situation and energy price changes need to be concerned [2]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuates, and the spot premium expands. The market is concerned about the uncertainty of the Middle East war situation. The copper price is supported by spot buying interest but may be affected by the war and high inventory [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum fluctuates strongly. The domestic social inventory is at a high level, but the overseas low - inventory situation and the Middle East situation intensify the shortage concern. The aluminum price fluctuates strongly at a high level [4]. - **Zinc**: The macro - liquidity is tightening, the LME zinc rebound momentum is insufficient, and the domestic zinc surplus pressure still exists. The zinc price is expected to maintain a high - level shock [7]. - **Lead**: The lead price is in a low - level shock. The inventory is under pressure, the cost support for the futures is insufficient, and the price is in the range of 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel price fluctuates narrowly, and the upstream price rebound supports the middle - stream price. The nickel market lacks an independent driver and follows the external sentiment to rebound [9]. - **Tin**: The tin price fluctuates, and the market supply and demand news is flat. The tin price is in a relatively high - price area, and the resistance level of 400,000 - 405,000 yuan is effective [10]. - **Ferroalloys**: - **Manganese Silicon**: The international conflict has a positive impact on the manganese ore freight, and the cost is relatively favorable. The demand for iron water decreases, and the price is likely to fluctuate [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The electricity price in Inner Mongolia increases, and the demand for iron water is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the price is likely to fluctuate [19]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The cost support weakens, the demand for propylene decreases, and the market trading is weak [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The PVC price rises, the supply decreases, and the inventory pressure still exists. The caustic soda price is strong, and the industry profit is repaired [28]. - **Aromatics**: - **Pure Benzene**: The shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz increases, and the pure benzene price rises. The domestic production decreases, and the inventory decreases slightly [25]. - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure due to the oil price decline, and the domestic supply is expected to decrease, which supports the price [26]. - **Other Chemicals**: - **Methanol**: The shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz increases, and the methanol price rebounds. The import volume decreases, and the port inventory decreases [24]. - **PX and PTA**: The price of PX and PTA strengthens, and the market is concerned about the oil tanker passage in the Strait [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The new capacity has long - term pressure, and the price rebounds due to the tense situation in Iran [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber inventory rises, and the bottle - chip load rises. The market is affected by the Middle East situation and follows the raw material fluctuations [31]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic refineries are worried about the raw material supply, and the production capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease. The asphalt price follows the oil price but has a relatively limited range [22]. - **Urea**: The urea price rises, the domestic supply is high, and the demand is in the peak season. The price is expected to be strong within the range [23]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: - **Soybeans, Soybean Meal, and Rapeseed Meal**: The US - Iran war situation affects the price, and the domestic soybean meal price is supported by the rising import cost. The supply of rapeseed is expected to increase [35]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean import cost rises, and the vegetable oil price is affected by the crude oil market. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and the crude oil market [36]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn price is affected by the geopolitical situation. The US corn price follows the crude oil price. The domestic corn futures may follow the geopolitical factors in the short term [38]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: - **Pigs**: The pig price is in the process of secondary bottom - building, the inventory pressure is large, and the far - month contract can be considered for long positions after the premium narrows [39]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is supported by the rising soybean meal price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the egg futures contract [40]. - **Cash Crops**: - **Cotton**: The cotton price rises, the commercial inventory is well digested, and the supply is expected to be tight. The demand feedback is average, and the mid - term outlook is cautiously bullish [41]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar production situation varies. The domestic sugar price is under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production situation [42]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price is in a high - level shock. The demand in the northwest is good, but the quality in Shandong is poor, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. - **Wood**: The wood price fluctuates. The supply is expected to be tight, the demand is increasing, and the low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp price rises slightly, the inventory is at a high level, the overseas quotation is strong, and the mid - term trend is expected to be range - bound [45]. Others - **Shipping**: The spot price of the container shipping index (European line) is under pressure, but the sentiment of the Middle East situation provides some support. The market is dominated by sentiment and is prone to fluctuations [20].