Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 5191.40 with a change of 196.45 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 86.94 with a change of 9.59 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 2058.00 with a change of -51.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 66.31 with a change of 3.42 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 13061.50 with a change of 167.00 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 97.74 with a change of 0.88 [1] - Euro to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.18 with a change of -0.01 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.35 with a change of -0.02 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest rate is 154.67 with a change of 1.97 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.77 with a change of 0.00 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's value is 11321.76 with a change of -386.68 [1] - SHFE Silver's value is 349.88 with a change of -3.68 [1] - Gold ETF's value is 1086.47 with a change of 0.00 [1] - Silver ETF's value is 15830.38 with a change of 0.00 [1] - SGE Silver's value is 493.67 with a change of 9.44 [1] - SGE Gold's value is 1 with a change of 0.00 [1] - Another SGE Silver's value is 2 with a change not clearly presented [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-2-25 ⾦价⾼位回落，⽩银震荡偏强 万得数据显⽰，春节假⽇期间，外盘贵⾦属在低位震荡后出现反弹，主要 受美国经济数据分化、美伊地缘局势升级及美国关税政策变动等多重因素 ⽀撑。⽇内COMEX⾦价⾼位回落、跌幅近1%，结束此前连续四个交易⽇ 上涨态势，受投资者部分获利回吐及美元指数⼩幅反弹等压制。⽇内COM EX⽩银"V型"震荡运⾏、上涨近2%。短线来看，美国关税政策不确定 性和地缘政治⻛险升温仍对贵⾦属形成⽀撑，后续需重点关注本周26⽇将 举⾏的美伊⽇内⽡谈判、27⽇将公布的1⽉PPI数据、下周⾮农数据和中 美互动等。 黄金观点：短期有望呈现震荡偏强走势 逻辑：万得数据显示，日内COMEX金价小幅下跌，在触及5280美元/盎 司附近高位后有所回落，在5180美元/盎司附近震荡。一方面，美国 关税不确定性持续升温、美伊谈判反复及中东地缘局势对短线金价形 成支撑。美国最高法院 2 月 20 日裁定依据 IEEPA 征收的关税违法 后，特朗普随即宣布依据《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条加征 10% 全 球临时关税，并于 21 ...

一觉醒来，发现白银价格直接飞了，黄金也跟着上涨，全球市场像炸锅一样。 这到底发生了什么？ 普通人关心的钱包，突然就被一场美国式"骚操作"搅得天翻地覆。 其实那天中国市场还在春节假期，真正推高价格的，是美国自己。 白银和黄金的涨幅远超日常波动，资本像洪水一样涌过去。 你以为这是技术性调整？ 其实是恐慌情绪的集中爆发。 有人说是特朗普，又有人怪美联储，还有人干脆把锅甩给伊朗。 其实，这些表面上的波动背后，藏着美国政治经济一系列自作聪明的操作——但说实话，真正吃亏的还是他 们自己。 先说市场吧。 2月20日那天，白银疯狂暴涨超过8%，黄金也不甘示弱，涨了2%。 投资者像跑马一样冲向贵金属避险。 有人问，是不是中国大妈又出手了？ 这场风暴的导火索，就是特朗普。 美国总统特朗普突然宣布，要对全世界所有卖到美国的商品再加征10%关税。 这不是普通的关税，是在原本已经有的关税基础上加码。 你觉得这个操作有脑子吗？ 其实就是典型的"自作聪明"：一边摊手让市场承受压力，一边想着用关税威胁世界。 为什么特朗普要这么干？ 背后是美国最高法院给他添堵。 法院判决他之前搞的大规模关税不合法，理由是缺乏明确法律授权。 一场裁决让美国企业 ...

在经历了春节长假的休整之后，2月24日A股市场量价齐升，资金入场意愿较为强烈。 与此同时，结构性分化的暗流也在涌动。油气、有色、化工等资源品板块全线走强，影视院线、AI应 用等题材则显著回调。这种"冰火两重天"的格局，使得A股在马年的平稳开局中暗藏分歧。多家一线私 募机构在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，马年A股首日走势验证了节前的乐观预期，但市场主线也在 逐步切换，投资者需要在"科技"与"资源"的双线逻辑中重新校准攻守节奏。 双轮驱动特征明显 "A股马年首个交易日整体呈现出全线高开、放量走强的行情，上证指数等主要指数同步走高，市场交 投活跃度显著提升。"畅力资产董事长宝晓辉表示，结合春节假期外围市场整体偏暖、资金回流预期较 强的大背景，A股的表现基本符合市场的普遍预期。 奶酪基金投资经理李铭洛则观察到盘面的双轮驱动特征，24日盘面呈现清晰的"资源品+科技成长"双轮 驱动格局——油气能源、贵金属等资源板块与AI算力、半导体、机器人等硬科技赛道领涨，前期涨幅 较大的影视、短剧游戏等题材则有所回调。"这一表现基本兑现了节前市场对'红包行情'的预期，主要 驱动力来自假期期间海外科技股上涨、地缘风险推升避险资产价格以及 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metals Industry**: The records discuss various segments of the metals industry, including precious metals, industrial metals, energy metals, and strategic metals, highlighting their current status and future outlooks [1][5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Investment Drivers**: Geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic data are driving the safe-haven and anti-inflation attributes of precious metals. Central bank purchases, de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks are long-term support factors. For instance, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, with a projected global central bank purchase of approximately 683 tons in 2025 [1][3]. - **Price Trends**: Gold prices have stabilized above $5,000 per ounce, with expectations to hold around $5,100 per ounce. The valuation of gold stocks remains low, with companies like Shandong Gold International and Zhongjin Gold being recommended for investment [3][10]. - **Market Performance**: During the Spring Festival, gold and silver prices rebounded significantly, with gold surpassing 5,100 yuan per gram and silver exceeding $85 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic indicators [2]. Industrial Metals - **Demand Shift**: The demand structure for industrial metals is shifting from traditional sectors to electric infrastructure, renewable energy, and AI-driven data centers. This transition is expected to sustain an upward cycle for the next two to three years, with copper and aluminum valuations being attractive at around 10 times earnings [5]. - **Supply Constraints**: The supply side faces challenges such as depletion of high-grade mines, geopolitical risks, and insufficient exploration investments, leading to tight supply conditions [5]. Energy Metals - **Market Outlook**: Lithium inventories are decreasing amid strong demand, leading to a positive outlook for lithium prices. Cobalt and nickel are benefiting from quota and supply restrictions, while strategic metals like rare earths, tungsten, and uranium have solid long-term fundamentals despite short-term price corrections [6][12]. Steel Industry - **Current Challenges**: The steel industry is experiencing a downturn, with many companies reducing or halting production. Attention is needed on supply-side policies and support from the real estate sector. A potential improvement in demand is expected post-spring commencement [7][32]. - **Profit Projections**: The total profit for the steel industry is projected to be around 7 billion yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 112 times [1][32]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - **Tariff Implications**: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that previous tariffs imposed by the former president were invalid, but details on refunds remain unclear. Future fluctuations in import tariffs may impact precious metal prices, with expectations of upward price movements in 2026, albeit less volatile than in 2025 [1][7]. Strategic Metals - **Price Trends**: Recent price increases for light rare earths, such as neodymium oxide, have been noted, with a 12% increase year-on-year. Heavy rare earths, however, are experiencing price declines due to weaker demand [20][21]. - **Supply Control**: Future supply is expected to be tightly controlled, with significant reductions in mining and refining quotas anticipated, which will maintain upward pressure on prices [23][25]. Recommendations - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies such as Shandong Gold International, Zhongjin Gold, and various firms in the lithium and nickel sectors are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their favorable market positions and growth prospects [3][10][12][19]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the metals industry.

叶如祯 长江证券分析师: 尊敬的各位投资人，欢迎大家下午收听由这个长安金属煤炭举办的如何展望节后金属煤炭 行情的这个专题会议。那么核心还是节中的话，整体的这个，包括海外资产，包括其实商 品资产，也都出现了比较积极的这个大幅的这个波动。所以，这个长安金属煤炭联合还是 希望在节前去做一个这个观点的展望，以及整个 2~3 月份的这个配置的这样的一个策略。 我这边是这个贵金属叶如珍，然后主要是先更新一下这个黄金和白银的这个假期内的这个 情境。那么假期中，其实核心的线索主要还是这个特朗普和最高法院的这个司法战，触发 的这个避险情绪。 那么带动的贵金属的行情进一步的这个上行，那么触发的这个时点，其实主要是源于 2 月 20 日，这个美国最高法院对这个特朗普裁定这个从动无无权限。在非紧急特殊状态下实施 全面广泛这个性关税。那么在这个裁决之后，特朗普又基于这个 1974 年的这个贸易法案 的第 122 条。立即这个征收了这个 10%的这个全球的关税，那么有效期为 150 天。这一 来一回，直接我们讲导致了这个美元和美债利率的走弱，那么从而，一一方面催生了这个 整体这个美国经济预期的扰动。 另外一方面，还是主要是这个贸易情绪的 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened strong in the Year of the Horse, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.36%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.99% on February 24, 2026, with a total trading volume of 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 219.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The 2026 Spring Festival box office reached 5.752 billion yuan, with a total of 120 million viewers, marking a significant performance for the film industry during this period [4] - The domestic tourism market saw 596 million trips during the Spring Festival holiday, an increase of 95 million trips compared to the previous year, with total spending reaching 803.483 billion yuan, up by 126.481 billion yuan [6] Group 2 - The number of cross-regional movements during the Spring Festival exceeded 2.8 billion, with an average of 311 million movements per day, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth [5] - The number of electric vehicle charging sessions on highways reached 6.021 million, with a total charging volume of 14.97675 billion kilowatt-hours, representing a 52.01% increase in daily average charging volume compared to the previous year [8] - International gold and silver prices surged during the Spring Festival due to geopolitical tensions and inflation pressures, with gold futures rising by 3.55% and silver futures by 11.04% over five trading days [12]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced widespread gains on February 24, with the main contract for silver rising over 12% and lithium carbonate increasing by over 10% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1704.50 points, up 56.21 points or 3.41% from the previous trading day [1] - The overall commodity index rose to 2349.89 points, an increase of 77.35 points or 3.40% [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals, particularly silver, showed strong performance post-Spring Festival, with silver surging by 12.84% and lithium carbonate recovering above 160,000 yuan per ton [2] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to increased safe-haven buying due to U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2] - Concerns about U.S. economic stagnation were heightened by a return of the core PCE year-on-year rate to 3% and a slowdown in GDP growth to 1.4% in Q4 [2] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate - The strong rise in lithium carbonate prices is supported by expectations of a tight supply-demand balance, despite concerns over a decline in downstream production [3] - Domestic lithium carbonate production is also expected to decrease, which offsets the negative impact of lower downstream production [3] - The overall sentiment remains bullish for lithium prices, although there are warnings about potential weakening fundamentals in Q2 [3] Group 4: Energy and Chemical Products - The energy and chemical sectors were active, driven by rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which pushed international oil prices to a six-month high [3] - SC crude oil rose by over 6%, while high-sulfur fuel oil increased by over 2% and 5% respectively [3] - The rubber sector also saw collective gains, with 20 rubber, butadiene rubber, and natural rubber all rising around 4% [3] Group 5: Declining Commodities - The main contract for polysilicon fell over 4%, primarily due to high inventory levels and price pressures from declining silicon wafer prices [4] - The supply of caustic soda also increased, leading to a decline of 3.37% in its main contract, as supply remained ample and demand was weak [5] - The operational rates for alumina production decreased, contributing to a lack of demand in the caustic soda market [5]

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Sentiment - The situation in Iran is escalating, leading to increased market anxiety and a rise in risk aversion among investors [2][12] - The U.S. has been deploying military forces in the Middle East and Europe, interpreted as a preemptive measure against potential conflict [2] - Diplomatic channels remain open, with U.S. and Iranian officials expected to continue talks in Geneva, although investor sentiment remains cautious [2][12] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil prices have surged to $71 per barrel, marking a six-month high due to geopolitical tensions [3][12] - The primary concern is not a decrease in Iranian oil production but the potential disruption of oil transport routes in the Persian Gulf, particularly the Strait of Hormuz [3] - The risk premium in oil prices is rising due to fears of systemic disruptions in global energy supply chains [3] Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - Gold and silver prices have risen significantly, with gold surpassing $5,170 per ounce and silver above $87 per ounce [5][13] - The strong demand for safe-haven assets is reflected in gold's nearly 8% increase over the past week, supported by geopolitical risks and uncertain interest rate paths [5][13] Group 4: Cryptocurrency Market Challenges - The cryptocurrency market is underperforming, with Bitcoin dropping to around $64,000, negatively impacting other major cryptocurrencies [6][14] - Contributing factors to this decline include a 15% increase in mining difficulty and reduced profitability for miners, leading some to sell Bitcoin reserves [7][14] - Bitdeer Technologies sold approximately 940 Bitcoins to cover operational costs, indicating supply-side pressure in the market [8][14] Group 5: Regulatory Developments - Despite weak price performance in cryptocurrencies, there are signs of marginal improvement in regulatory conditions, with discussions between U.S. banks and crypto firms nearing consensus [10][18] - The long-delayed Clarity Act may see substantial progress, potentially providing a clearer regulatory framework for the industry [18] Group 6: Market Outlook - The current market is characterized by geopolitical risks, with oil prices expected to remain strong due to transport risk premiums [11][18] - Precious metals are likely to maintain an upward trend supported by risk aversion [11][18] - Cryptocurrencies face short-term pressure from supply challenges and weakened sentiment [11][18] - Key variables to monitor include U.S.-Iran negotiations, safety of Persian Gulf transport, cryptocurrency mining activities, and U.S. regulatory developments [11][18]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions, with gold prices reaching a historical high of $5,200 per ounce and silver prices hitting $86, driven by panic. However, GTC Zhehui Capital suggests that this premium is unstable and investors should focus on the fundamental factors supporting the long-term upward trend of precious metals [1][3]. Geopolitical Context - The current geopolitical situation is viewed as a complex game strategy, with diplomatic efforts to avoid direct conflict still present despite frequent threats. The progress of negotiations in Geneva will be crucial [1][3]. - If geopolitical risks diminish, "safe-haven funds" may quickly exit the market, leading to a significant price correction. However, this correction does not signify the end of the bull market but may clear political premiums, allowing the market to return to the reality of physical supply [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market has been in a supply deficit for six consecutive years, a structural shortage that is unlikely to be reversed in the short term. The expansion of global debt contributes to persistent inflationary pressures, driving funds towards hard assets with no counterparty risk [2][4]. - The rigid demand for high-conductivity metals from AI data centers and the latent credit risks within the financial system will provide solid bottom support for gold and silver [2][4]. Market Outlook - If conflicts escalate beyond expectations, gold prices could potentially reach $5,500, while silver prices may return to $120. Conversely, in a peaceful scenario, a deep market correction could present an ideal buying opportunity [2][4]. - As investors from key Asian markets return after the holidays, market demand is expected to receive further support. In this context, the performance of high-quality North American mining projects and core producers will be worth continuous attention to capture genuine value growth amid volatility [2][4].