好的那么各位投资者大家下午好我是平安证券有色分析师陈潇容那么今天下午主要跟大家汇报一下我们整体对于今年下半年有色金属板块的一个核心的观点和主要的一个眼帕那么从上半年的表现呢可以看到是整体的这个有色板块相对来说表现是比较好的 那么在进一步从结构上我们也可以发现在金价中枢持续上升的这样的一个背景之下其实整体贵金属板块的走势是相对于其他的西份赛道的走势更加的强劲那么站在当前这个时间点我们觉得下半年来看的话整体依然还是看好整体的有色金属板块的走势 那么从结构上来看我们认为还是会在各自不同的资本面包括核心驱动的不同之下可能会有一些细分赛道上的分化具体来说我们仍然是看好贵因属在中长期的一个走势那么我们觉得货币属性和金融属性仍然是中长期的一个核心的主线那么在工业金属这方面我们觉得是在金融属性和商品属性的这样的一个驱动之下 整体的这个以铜铝为代表的工业金属的价格中枢也是有望持续的上升那么能源金属这边呢我们认为整体来说的话仍然是在这个底部区间确认那么也是建议关注来自于基本面尤其是供应端上的一些驱动那么首先来看是这个贵金属这边 国营储这边的话我们首先来看黄金整体来看的话上半年金价的走势也是相对来说比较亮眼那么我们觉得下半年的话黄 ...

各位投资者早上好我是这双金属分析师沈浩俊那么在关税之后我们一直强调的两条主线一条是黄金白银而贵金属第二条就是稀土瓷材整个板块那么稀土瓷材整个板块在上周迎来了比较强烈的行情养花补玉的涨价逻辑也在逐步的兑现当中那么今天我们就来详细聊聊 如何看待现阶段的稀土石材整个板块以及美国国防部入股MP可以说是美版的自主可控这件事那么在此之前我先按惯例来复排一下最新的一周行业的编辑变化以及 上周密集披露的中报预告有超预期和符合预期以及低预期的标题提示从整个行情表现来看的话年初到现在有色行情可以说是符合我们周末发的半年度策略报告的标题金属牛市那么最近一周的话 有编辑变化 我觉得就是国际金属铜铝这块特别是铜 特朗普对铜加了50%的关税那么后续怎么看待这个事 我觉得是这么看待的铺颗铝依然是现实层面很强只不过这个关税这事呢 影响到了需求 预期层面后续铜价的变化 我觉得 依赖于现阶段参谋会不会真的在8月1号去严格的去落实这个50%同的关税那么目前LME和COMEX同价的价差已经拉大到了27%换句话说之前市场普遍预期关税加25%的时候这个LME和COMEX的价差是在12%左右那么目前的话50%关税 中金黄金交通万方华有物业都是超预期的符合 ...

【要闻速递】 在全球投资者翘首期盼降息之际，美联储重量级人物洛根突然投下"震撼弹"。这位达拉斯联储主席当地 时间周二（7月15日）晚上最新表态揭示，美国可能将进入"超长利率平台期"，而背后暗藏三大博弈关 键。 在7月15日的重要演讲中，洛根明确抛出了"长期维持现有利率"的核心观点。她强调当前4.25%-4.5%的 利率区间必须保持"足够长的限缩性"，这个"一段时间"在华尔街解读中至少意味着6-12个月。其根本目 的在于确保通胀能真正稳定在2%目标线，而非目前2.3%的徘徊状态。 值得注意的是，洛根特别使用了"温和限缩性"这个微妙表述。这暗示美联储既不会进一步激进加息，但 也绝不会轻易松闸。就像给经济套上一个"不会窒息但必须保持节食"的紧身衣，这种精准调控背后是对 通胀死灰复燃的深度担忧。 【白银最新行情解析】 白银市场昨日开盘在38.094的位置后行情先拉升，日线最高触及到了38.374的位置后行情强势回落，日 线最低给到了37.564的位置后行情整理，日线最终收线在了37.685的位置后行情以一根上影线很长的中 阴线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，今日的行情延续空，点位上，今日38.1空止损38.3下方目标看37 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 7 月 16 日星期三 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，伦敦金在 CPI 数据公布后回吐日内涨幅，一度下破 3320 美元关 | | 研究员：王伟 | 口，最终收跌 0.58%，收报 3323.29 美元/盎司，为连续第二个交易日走低；伦敦银回落 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 至 38 美元关口下方，最终收跌 1.12%，报 37.686 美元/盎司。受外盘影响，沪金主力合 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 约收跌 0.42%，报 774.92 元/克，沪银主力合约收跌 0.26%，报 9160 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数持续拉升，最终收涨 0.54%，报 98.62。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率攀升，收报 4.488 ...

2025年07月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡上行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：国内现货坚挺，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：承压运行 | 6 | | 铅：下方或相对有限 | 7 | | 锡：价格走弱 | 8 | | 铝：淡季承压 | 10 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：开工率下行 | 10 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，全球精炼镍边际累库 | 12 | | 不锈钢：现实与宏观博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 16 日 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 16 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国恢复援助乌克兰并威胁制裁俄罗斯提振贵金属的避险需求，同时美元指 数在持续反弹至关键压力位附近时也小幅回调，避险需求以及计价货币因素推动 伦敦黄金偏强运行至 3360 美元/盎司附近，关注本周陆续公布的美国物价数据对 美联储降息预期的指引；隔夜投机资金推动伦敦白银突破 39 美元/盎司压力位， 但多头获利平仓也使得银价一度回调至 38 美元/盎司下方。特朗普 2.0 新政推动 全球政经格局加速重组且进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振； ...

上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 7月16日（周三）早盘盘初下跌0.45%报770.94元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 7月16日（周三）早盘盘初下跌0.27%报9130.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...

上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 7月15日（周二）晚盘收盘下跌0.45%报770.94元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 7月15日（周二）晚盘收盘下跌0.42%报9117.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...

大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 7 月 15 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场：今天白天，贵金属横向盘整、回补昨天的部分跌幅。伦敦金当 前交投于 3360 美元附近，伦敦银交投于 38.25 附近。受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约 收涨 0.25%，报 780.4 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.52%，报 9225 元/千克。 2.美元指数：美元指数高开后走弱，当前交投于 97.97 附近。 3.美债收益率：10 年美债收益率小幅波动，当前交投于 4.415%附近。 4.人民币汇率：人民币兑美元汇率高位震荡，当前交投于 7.173 附近。 【重要资讯】 1.特朗普政府动向：①特朗普：如果俄罗斯在 50 天内无法达成俄乌冲突协 议，将对俄罗斯征收 10 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various metals and minerals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors, including market reviews, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each product. It takes into account factors such as tariffs, supply and demand, and policy changes to evaluate the market trends and potential investment opportunities and risks [3][7][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.36% at $3342.78/ounce, London silver down 0.72% at $38.11/ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index was almost flat at 98.035, 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.426%, and the RMB/USD exchange rate rose 0.03% to 7.1723 [3]. - **Important News**: Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Russia if no Ukraine - Russia conflict agreement is reached in 50 days. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Fed officials' remarks and interest rate probability expectations were also reported [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: As the tariff negotiation deadline approaches, tariff games intensify. The Fed is in a wait - and - see mode. The market awaits US CPI data. Silver's spot supply is tight due to tax - increase expectations [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai copper 2508 contract fell 0.34% to 78020 yuan/ton, LME copper closed down 0.2% at $9643.5/ton. LME and Comex inventories increased [7]. - **Important News**: Multiple tariff - related events were reported. China's June copper imports showed mixed trends. SMM national copper inventory increased [8][9]. - **Logical Analysis**: The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st. The US' siphoning of global refined copper is nearing an end. LME inventory bottomed out. The price difference structure will converge, and the market is mainly for rigid demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Night - session alumina 2509 contract rose 37 yuan to 3145 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [12]. - **Important News**: Central Finance Commission meeting emphasized market construction. There were domestic spot transactions, changes in warehouse receipts, and production and inventory data [12][14]. - **Logical Analysis**: Alumina production is increasing, but spot circulation is limited. The supply - demand pattern will gradually shift to a surplus, but warehouse receipt demand may support the market [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to fluctuate strongly for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract fell 30 yuan/ton to 20405 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [18][21]. - **Important News**: Aluminum ingot inventory increased. There were data on photovoltaic installation, aluminum exports, and financial and trade news [21][22]. - **Trading Logic**: Tariff negotiations are ongoing. Aluminum ingot inventory may have a narrow - range change. The decline in photovoltaic component production may be mitigated [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices may be under pressure in the short - term but not overly pessimistic for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 yuan to 19800 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [28]. - **Important News**: There were data on production, cost, profit, and inventory of cast aluminum alloy [28][29]. - **Trading Logic**: Alloy ingot enterprises face raw material shortages, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy futures prices will follow aluminum prices under pressure. Consider arbitrage within a certain price difference range; wait and see for options [30]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 0.2% to $2732.5/ton, Shanghai zinc 2508 fell 0.27% to 22145 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [32]. - **Important News**: Domestic and LME zinc inventories increased [32]. - **Logical Analysis**: Zinc supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and prices may be under pressure [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell 0.98% to $2017/ton, Shanghai lead 2508 fell 0.2% to 17070 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [36]. - **Important News**: Lead inventory increased, and the average operating rate of primary lead smelters decreased [36]. - **Logical Analysis**: Recycled lead is in a loss, and the supply is hard to increase. Demand is improving marginally [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term lead prices may fluctuate at a high level. High - selling and low - buying in the range for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell 170 to $15065/ton, inventory increased. Shanghai nickel fell 1310 to 119460 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [42]. - **Important News**: A Canadian nickel company's exploration results and battery production data were reported [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market is worried about US tariffs. Refined nickel has weak supply and demand in the off - season, and prices will fluctuate weakly [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2508 contract rose 10 to 12695 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were reported [44]. - **Important News**: A stainless steel factory's high - nickel pig iron transaction and a company's production achievement were reported [48]. - **Logical Analysis**: Stainless steel demand is not optimistic, inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [48]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures and spot prices rose [50]. - **Important News**: The US launched 232 investigations on drones and polysilicon [50]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Industrial silicon production will decrease in July. Supply and demand may be balanced. Inventory has shifted, and the market is optimistic [50][52]. - **Strategy**: Short - term strength for single - side trading; stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy [53]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: Polysilicon futures rose 0.81% to 41765 yuan/ton. Spot prices declined [55]. - **Important News**: Silicon wafer and battery prices and US investigations were reported [55]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Polysilicon price increases can be passed on to downstream. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Reduce long positions [56][58]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions and participate in short - term trading. Stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy; wait and see for options [59]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 2380 to 66480 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased [61]. - **Important News**: A company obtained a mining license, and a cooperation agreement was signed [61][63]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market concerns led to price increases. Demand is not weak in the off - season. Prices may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and decline in the long - term [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Avoid risks in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities; wait and see for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [64].