Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, significantly exceeding expectations, but previous months' figures were revised down by 33,000 [6][11] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest level in four years [6][11] - China's Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged for six consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5% [8][11] Group 2: Market Trends - The stock market saw a decline, with the construction materials sector leading gains while the beauty and personal care sector lagged [11] - Financing balance decreased by 4.576 billion to 24,803.25 billion [11] - The market style is expected to balance out if overseas tech earnings materialize and small-cap stocks complete their corrections [11] Group 3: Commodity Insights - Copper prices rose during the day, supported by tight concentrate supply and high smelting output, despite weak demand in the real estate sector [19] - Oil prices fell by 0.73%, influenced by U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies and ongoing geopolitical tensions [14] - Methanol prices increased by 0.3%, with domestic production levels showing slight fluctuations [15]

Core Viewpoint - Tongling Nonferrous Metals is a leading copper smelting enterprise in China, covering the entire industry chain from resource extraction to smelting and processing. The company is the largest producer of cathode copper in the country, with smelting capacity exceeding 1.7 million tons. However, since 2024, tightening copper ore supply has led to a decline in copper smelting fees, resulting in a slight decrease in the company's copper product profit margins. There are concerns about whether the company's substantial smelting capacity will be impacted by the continued decline in smelting fees, which could squeeze profit margins [1]. Copper Products Sector - From an industry perspective, the growth rate of electrolytic copper production in 2026-2027 may be lower than that of copper ore supply, indicating potential upward improvement in smelting fees. Demand from emerging sectors such as renewable energy and AI data centers is expected to drive an increase in copper demand. However, due to ongoing disruptions at the mining level and a slowdown in the expansion of midstream smelting capacity, the global copper supply-demand surplus may decrease, supporting an upward trend in copper prices in the medium term [2]. - On the company level, the expansion of the Mirador copper mine is expected to enhance the company's copper concentrate self-sufficiency and reduce production costs. The integrated project for green intelligent copper-based new materials is anticipated to expand the company's smelting capacity. With expectations of improving industry smelting fees and rising copper prices, the increase in resource self-sufficiency is likely to enhance profit elasticity in the smelting segment [2]. - The company is also focusing on high-end copper processing and precious metal resources, which are expected to drive profitability. The subsidiary Tongguan Copper Foil was listed separately in 2022, and the demand for high-end electronic copper foil products is anticipated to grow in the context of rapid development in AI and electronic communication industries. Additionally, the precious metals segment, including gold, is expected to continue contributing to the company's profits, with rising prices anticipated due to deteriorating dollar credit conditions. The expansion of the Mirador copper mine is expected to increase gold production, potentially leading to a rise in both volume and price in the gold segment [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to have EPS of 0.27, 0.38, and 0.43 yuan for the years 2025-2027. Based on a comparable company's 2026 PE of 16X, a target price of 6.08 yuan is set for the company. Therefore, the initial coverage recommends a buy rating for the company [3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the copper industry is expected to see a tightening supply-demand balance, with copper prices likely to rise due to increased demand from emerging sectors such as renewable energy and AI data centers. The company's expansion projects are anticipated to enhance its profitability and resource self-sufficiency [4][12][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd., is one of the largest cathode copper producers in China, with a smelting capacity exceeding 1.7 million tons. It has developed a comprehensive copper industry chain covering resource exploration, smelting, and processing [20][21]. Copper Product Segment - The report indicates that the copper price is expected to rise, and there is a marginally positive outlook for smelting fees, which could enhance profit elasticity. The company is set to benefit from the expected increase in copper prices and improved smelting fees due to supply constraints [4][12][10]. - The Mirador copper mine expansion is projected to increase the company's copper concentrate self-sufficiency and reduce production costs, while the completion of the green intelligent copper-based new materials industrial park is expected to expand smelting capacity [4][12]. Other Segments - The company is focusing on high-end copper processing and precious metal resources, which are expected to drive profitability. The subsidiary, Tongguan Copper Foil, has been listed separately and is positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in the AI and electronic communication sectors [4][12]. - The precious metals segment, particularly gold, is expected to see a rise in both volume and price, supported by deteriorating dollar credit conditions [4][12]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.27, 0.38, and 0.43 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027. Based on a comparable company PE of 16X for 2026, a target price of 6.08 yuan is set [5][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The end of the US government shutdown, the short - term liquidity problem in the market is solved, and the market risk preference increases. There is still uncertainty about the Fed rate cut in December. The FedWatch tool shows that the cumulative rate cut by the end of 2026 is only 80 basis points. Fundamentally, the copper mine supply remains tight, but with the increase in scrap copper and the partial resumption of smelters, copper production shows an increasing trend. The demand side is in the transition from peak to off - peak season, and some emerging industries provide continuous demand. Due to the game between tight supply at the mine end and weakening demand, copper is expected to oscillate in a relatively strong range. Attention should be paid to the economic data released after the US government resumes work and the change in the probability of rate cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis Macro - On November 12 local time, US President Trump signed a federal government temporary appropriation bill, ending the US government shutdown. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 44.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 55.6%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 48.6%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 34.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 16.7% [3]. Supply - In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a total crude smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons, with an expected impact on production of 48,000 tons. However, some enterprises that underwent maintenance in October have gradually resumed production, and with the increase in copper prices, the production enthusiasm has increased, and output is expected to rise. Scrap copper supply has increased, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources [3]. Demand - With the increase in the copper price center, downstream consumption is restricted. Traditional industries have seen demand pre - empted due to previous tariffs and national subsidy policies, and the recent trading atmosphere is weak. Except for the power and new energy battery sectors, downstream demand is generally poor. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been increasing and is currently higher than the same period last year. As of November 14, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 49,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.83% [3]. 3.2. Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper oscillated and rose. The weekly high was 87,920 yuan/ton, the low was 85,750 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 2.53%, and the range increase was 1.12% [5]. 3.3. Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of November 17, the average spot premium in East China was 75 yuan/ton, and in South China, it was 10 yuan/ton. Sellers tried to maintain high prices, but downstream buyers were less willing to accept high prices, putting pressure on the premium [10]. 3.4. London Copper Spread Structure - As of November 14, LME copper rose 0.99% during the week, closing at $10,850/ton, mainly due to the end of the US government shutdown and the increase in market risk preference [14]. 3.5. Copper Concentrate Supply - Customs data on November 14 showed that the copper concentrate port inventory was 530,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.43%. The inventory continued to recover but was still lower than the same period last year, and the tight supply of raw materials at the mine end had not improved. SMM expects the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance in 2025 to be - 330,000 metal tons. In October 2025, China imported 2.451 million tons of copper ore and concentrates; from January to October, the cumulative import was 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [19]. 3.6. Scrap Copper Supply - From January to September 2025, China imported 1.4496 million metal tons of scrap copper, a year - on - year increase of 1.39%. After the increase in copper prices, scrap copper supply increased, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources. Some regions may resume government support for recycled copper rod enterprises, but the implementation details are yet to be determined after next week's tax payment [25]. 3.7. Smelter Fees - As of November 14, China's spot crude smelting fee (TC) was - $41.82/dry ton, and the refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. In the 2026 long - term contract negotiation, there was a "zero - processing - fee" situation (Antofagasta locked 50% of the ore volume with Chinese smelters at $0/dry ton), and the market expects the remaining 50% of the ore volume to have a negative price [29]. 3.8. Refined Copper Supply - In October, SMM's estimated electrolytic copper production in China was 1.0916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29,400 tons. The estimated production in November is 1.0876 million tons, a further month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, but with the resumption of some enterprises and the increase in production enthusiasm, output is expected to rise. The operating rate of copper concentrate smelters was 85.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1%; the operating rate of smelters mainly using scrap copper or anode copper was 63.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%. In October 2025, China imported 438,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products; from January to October, the cumulative import was 4.456 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [33]. 3.9. Apparent Demand - As of September 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.4665 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.98%. With the increase in the copper price center, downstream consumption is restricted, and except for the power and new energy battery sectors, downstream demand is generally poor [38]. 3.10. Copper Products - In October 2025, the domestic copper strip production was 189,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.62%; the copper tube production was 121,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,500 tons or 11.29%. Last week, the orders in the refined copper rod market decreased week - on - week due to the increase in copper prices and weak downstream demand. The trading of copper strips weakened, and downstream procurement was cautious. The copper tube market was dragged down by the low operating rate of the air - conditioning industry. The copper foil market was relatively active due to the high production schedule of downstream battery factories [43]. 3.11. Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of September, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.72 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.5%. Among them, the installed solar power generation capacity was 1.13 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 45.7%; the installed wind power capacity was 580 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. From January to September, the national average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 2,368 hours, a decrease of 251 hours compared with the same period last year [47]. 3.12. Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to October, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%; the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 690.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6% [54]. 3.13. Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20% respectively. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 51.6% of total new vehicle sales. In addition, new energy vehicle exports exceeded 2 million for the first time. From January to October, new energy vehicle exports were 2.014 million, a year - on - year increase of 90.4% [58]. 3.14. Copper Inventories in Major Global Exchanges LME - As of November 14, LME copper inventory decreased by 175 tons to 135,700 tons. Although there was inventory accumulation, it was still significantly lower than the same period last year [63]. COMEX - As of November 14, COMEX copper inventory was 381,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.23% and a year - on - year increase of 328%. The US continued to hoard copper, causing an imbalance in the global copper inventory supply [63]. Shanghai and Guangdong Bonded Areas - This week, the cumulative spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 115,200 tons, showing a week - on - week increase. Some smelter export goods arrived and were stored in the warehouse this week, and inventory is expected to continue to increase next week [68]. Shanghai Futures Exchange - As of November 14, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 49,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.83% and higher than the same period last year [3][68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate supply in the raw material end of the fundamentals remains tight, and the copper cost support logic still exists. On the supply side, smelters' profit environment is poor due to weak processing fees and high costs, and smelting capacity may be limited. The total domestic refined copper supply is still at a high level but the growth rate has slowed down. On the demand side, the high copper price may suppress the downstream purchasing enthusiasm to some extent, and the spot market trading sentiment is dull. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where the supply growth rate slows down and the demand is temporarily stable, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.26, and the option market sentiment is bullish, with the implied volatility slightly decreasing. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis and the green bars are slightly expanding. The operation suggestion is to lightly go long on dips and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,829.50 dollars/ton, a decrease of 22.50 dollars. The main contract's open interest is 179,927 lots, a decrease of 12,366 lots. The LME copper inventory is 135,725 tons, a decrease of 450 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 109,407 tons, a decrease of 5,628 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 585 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 32 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.50 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, a decrease of 17.20 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 77,400 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 190 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 78,100 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 190 yuan. The rough smelting fee (TC) is - 42.21 dollars/thousand tons, a decrease of 0.17 dollars. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 126.60 million tons, a decrease of 3.50 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 438,000 tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The output of copper products is 223.20 million tons, an increase of 1.00 million tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The cumulative value of grid infrastructure investment is 4,378.07 billion yuan, an increase of 582.31 billion yuan; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 73,563 billion yuan, an increase of 5,857.29 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,180,000 thousand pieces, a decrease of 191,236.10 thousand pieces. [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 15.89%, a decrease of 0.31%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.46%, a decrease of 0.08%. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility is 15.8%, a decrease of 0.0030; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.26, an increase of 0.0363. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where supply slightly decreases and demand gradually increases, with inventory reduction in the industry and positive expectations. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly increases. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,840.00 yuan/ton, up 210.00 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,834.00 dollars/ton, up 7.00 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 0.00 yuan/ton, up 90.00 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 200,769.00 lots, down 1,602.00 lots. The futures top 20 open interest of Shanghai copper is - 20,440.00 lots, down 229.00 lots. The LME copper inventory is 136,250.00 tons, down 25.00 tons. The SHFE inventory of cathode copper is 115,035.00 tons, down 1,105.00 tons. The SHFE warrant of cathode copper is 44,088.00 tons, down 2,856.00 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,795.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,910.00 yuan/ton, up 65.00 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 45.00 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 33.50 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CU main contract basis is - 45.00 yuan/ton, down 180.00 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 spread is - 21.28 dollars/ton, down 6.43 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.20 million tons. The copper smelter's roughing charge (TC) is - 42.04 dollars/thousand tons, up 0.11 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 77,150.00 yuan/metal ton, up 340.00 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 77,850.00 yuan/metal ton, up 340.00 yuan. The southern processing fee of blister copper is 1,200.00 yuan/ton, up 100.00 yuan; the northern processing fee is 900.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 126.60 million tons, down 3.50 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 438,000.00 tons, down 52,000.00 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 59,040.00 yuan/ton, up 450.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 790.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,550.00 yuan/ton, up 350.00 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 223.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,378.07 billion yuan, up 582.31 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 67,705.71 billion yuan, up 7,396.52 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,371,236.10 thousand pieces, up 120,949.00 thousand pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.41%, down 0.92%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.33%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 13.78%, up 0.0017%. The at - the - money option call - put ratio is up 0.0127 [2] Industry News - From the four - week period ending October 25, the US private sector on average lost 11,250 jobs per week, and Goldman Sachs estimated that the US non - farm payrolls in October decreased by about 50,000, the largest decline since 2020. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, keep social financing conditions relatively loose, and improve the monetary policy framework. The NDRC has recommended 105 REITs projects to the CSRC, 83 of which have been issued and listed, covering 10 industries and 18 asset types, expected to drive new project investment of over 1 trillion yuan. In October, the sales of new energy vehicles in China accounted for over 50% of the total new vehicle sales for the first time, reaching 51.6%. The NDRC held a private enterprise symposium, and enterprises suggested improving policy support systems such as social security and taxation in the "15th Five - Year Plan" [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The news that the US government is about to end the shutdown and the friendly trade between China and the US have boosted market risk appetite, leading to a slightly stronger upward trend in Shanghai copper futures. However, attention should be paid to the release of economic data after the government resumes operations [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Today, Shanghai copper opened higher and trended lower, with a slightly stronger upward trend during intraday trading. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a crude refining capacity of 1.5 million tons, and the expected maintenance impact is 48,000 tons. The operating rate of copper concentrate smelters is 85.4%, a 3.1% decrease from the previous period; the operating rate of smelters mainly using scrap copper or anode copper is 63.3%, a 1.0% increase from the previous period. Affected by Document No. 770, the procurement of anode copper is still affected, but after the policies in some regions become clear, the operations are gradually recovering. It is expected that the supply of scrap copper will increase in the future to make up for the tight supply of copper ore. Last week, the copper price decreased compared to the previous period, and the price reduction led to an increase in the purchasing volume of downstream enterprises. However, the peak season this year was not as good as in previous years and has basically ended. The short - term increase in purchasing due to the price correction has not reversed the weak demand of downstream enterprises. The operating rate of downstream copper products has decreased compared to the previous period, and the performance of traditional terminal industries is average. Since the end of October, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been continuously increasing. As of November 7, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 43,400 tons, a 9.28% increase from the previous week [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and trended higher, then declined during intraday trading. Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China is 45 yuan/ton, and the spot premium in South China is - 20 yuan/ton. On November 10, 2025, the LME official price was 10,815 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 315 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of the latest data on November 10, the spot crude refining fee (TC) is - 41.9 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.00 US cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of inventory, the SHFE copper inventory is 43,000 tons, an increase of 1,817 tons from the previous period. As of November 10, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 102,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 136,300 tons, an increase of 1,425 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 372,300 short tons, an increase of 2,950 short tons from the previous period [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The Shanghai copper fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly decreasing supply and gradually increasing demand, with industrial inventory reduction and positive expectations. Optionally, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.26, a decrease of 0.0348 compared to the previous period, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market with a slight decline in implied volatility. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the red bars are slightly converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 86,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,853 dollars/ton, up 57 dollars. The spread between different months of the main contract is - 90 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 202,371 lots, down 1,756 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 20,440 lots, down 229 lots. The LME copper inventory is 136,275 tons, up 375 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 115,035 tons, down 1,105 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,725 tons, up 450 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper are 42,964 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 86,765 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 86,845 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 33.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 135 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 14.85 dollars/ton, up 3.37 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.2 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.04 dollars/kiloton, up 0.11 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 77,150 yuan/metal ton, up 340 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 77,850 yuan/metal ton, up 340 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton. The output of refined copper is 126.6 million tons, down 3.5 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 438,000 tons, down 52,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 59,040 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,550 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 790 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 223.2 million tons, up 1 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,378.07 billion yuan, up 582.31 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 67,705.71 billion yuan, up 7,396.52 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,371,236.1 million pieces, up 120,949 million pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 17.33%, down 0.33%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 19.33%, down 0.11%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 13.61%, down 0.0041%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.26, down 0.0348 [2]. Industry News - Fed Governor Milan supports further interest rate cuts to prevent the future weakening of the US economy and advocates for a faster pace of rate cuts than the traditional 25 - basis - point per - time. San Francisco Fed President Daly said the US economy may be experiencing a decline in demand, but tariff - related inflation is currently under control, and the Fed should discuss whether to continue rate cuts on the basis of the 50 - basis - point rate cuts this year with an "open mind". In October, the production and retail sales of passenger cars were 2.951 million and 2.242 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 11.4% and a decline of 0.8%. The production and retail sales of new energy vehicles were 1.657 million and 1.282 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 19.8% and 7.3%. From January to October, the production and retail sales of passenger cars were 23.738 million and 19.25 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 13.6% and 7.9%. The production and retail sales of new energy vehicles were 12.037 million and 10.151 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 30.3% and 21.9%. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a document focusing on the large - scale development and high - quality consumption of new energy, proposing phased goals and seven key tasks to build a new power system compatible with a high proportion of new energy to support the carbon peak and national self - contribution goals [2].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term copper prices are in a high - level correction and oscillating to accumulate strength due to factors such as the decline in Sino - US manufacturing PMI, the US government shutdown leading to tight market liquidity, and the strengthening of the US dollar index. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. In the long term, copper is still favored as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and a substitute for precious metals, given the tight copper concentrate supply and the booming green copper demand [6]. - Long - term, copper is positively correlated with the Nasdaq index, gold, and crude oil, and negatively correlated with the US Treasury yield. In 2025, the gold - copper ratio has been rising, and copper still has room for a catch - up increase compared to gold [20]. Group 3: Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 1. Viewpoint Summary - The short - term copper price is under pressure due to macro factors, and the long - term outlook for copper is positive. Short - term, it is advisable to try long positions on dips, and long - term strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging should consider adding option protection, reducing positions, and strictly controlling risks [6]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - The US government shutdown has led to a dollar shortage, with the US dollar index breaking through the 100 mark this week, suppressing copper prices. The US 10 - month ADP employment increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations, but the overall employment situation still has uncertainties. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is 70.6% [14]. - Sino - US manufacturing PMI has declined month - on - month. China's September manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The US 10 - month ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7. There are concerns about economic recession risks [17]. - There are uncertainties about the legality of Trump's tariffs. If the US Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, the US government may face a refund of about $140 billion in taxes, which will impact the federal finance [17]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - In 2025, the production of global mainstream copper mines is expected to be revised down to 12.2 million tons, a decrease of 401,300 tons compared to 2024, a 3.18% decrease, intensifying concerns about the global copper shortage [43]. - In Q3 2025, the output of major global copper mining enterprises decreased by nearly 5% year - on - year, and the contraction is expected to continue in Q4. The import of copper concentrate in China decreased in September, and the port inventory is lower than the historical average. The copper concentrate TC is at a historically low level, and the smelting processing fee is deeply inverted [49]. - The supply of scrap copper in the market is tight. The import window for scrap copper is closed, and the domestic supply is short. The refined - scrap price difference has decreased [56]. - In 2025, the global refined copper production shows a structural differentiation. China contributes most of the global increment, while overseas production in most countries has declined to varying degrees [59]. Demand - In September, the output and operating rate of copper products increased. The operating rate of mid - downstream processing enterprises also rebounded slightly. The terminal demand for electricity and new energy vehicles shows resilience, while the performance of the home appliance and real estate industries is weak [74][78]. - The global demand for green copper is booming. The copper - electricity - RMB internationalization path is expected to be opened up [84]. 4. Summary and Outlook - Macroscopically, the US manufacturing PMI has declined, the US government shutdown continues, the US dollar index has returned above 100, and market liquidity is tight, causing commodities to retreat from high levels. The Fed's December interest - rate cut probability is uncertain [101]. - Fundamentally, the output of global major copper mines is expected to continue to contract in Q4. The copper smelting industry at home and abroad is anti - involution. The output of electrolytic copper in China decreased in October and is expected to decline in November. The inventory situation is complex, with LME copper inventory decreasing and COMEX copper inventory increasing but difficult to flow back. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased after the copper price decline, and the terminal demand for electricity and new energy vehicles remains resilient [102]. - Short - term, copper prices are recommended to try long positions on dips. Long - term, strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging should add option protection, reduce positions, and control risks strictly. The short - term focus range for SHFE copper is [84,000, 88,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [10,500, 11,000] US dollars/ton [103][104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of copper ore remains tight, with the copper concentrate processing fee TC at a deeply negative level. The market generally expects the final result of the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee negotiation to be significantly lower than the 2025 benchmark price of $21.25 per dry ton, and it may approach zero, with individual negotiations possibly resulting in negative values. - In November, the number of smelters scheduled for maintenance decreased to 5, involving a rough smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons and an estimated impact on production of 48,000 tons. Due to the pressure on raw materials being transmitted to the domestic smelting sector, along with negative copper processing fees and falling by - product prices, smelter profits are significantly pressured, and it is expected that the electrolytic copper output in November will decline month - on - month. - Although the previous period was the traditional peak season, high copper prices have to some extent suppressed downstream purchasing willingness. However, the demand side has strong resilience, and terminal demands such as power grids and new energy provide marginal increments. As the issue of supply shortages becomes a consensus, the downstream's acceptance of high copper prices is gradually increasing, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand fundamentals provide solid support for the price center. - The strategy is to continue to focus on medium - term long positions, with the medium - term reference support range for Shanghai copper 2601 being 83,500 - 84,000 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - ly Views and Strategies - **Strategy**: Focus on medium - term long positions, with the medium - term reference support range for Shanghai copper 2601 being 83,500 - 84,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Macro**: In October, China's total goods trade import and export value was 3.7 trillion yuan, a 0.1% increase. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a 0.8% decrease, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a 1.4% increase, with imports having increased for 5 consecutive months. The US government shutdown set a record for the longest duration, and many important economic indicators lacked official data. According to economists' estimates, if the number of non - agricultural employment in October decreased by 60,000, the unemployment rate would rise to 4.5% [9] - **Supply**: Copper ore supply is tight, and the copper concentrate processing fee TC is deeply negative. It is expected that the 2026 long - term processing fee will be much lower than that in 2025. In November, 5 smelters are scheduled for maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. It is expected that November's electrolytic copper output will decline month - on - month [9] - **Demand**: High copper prices have suppressed downstream purchasing, but demand has resilience, and power grids and new energy provide marginal increments. The downstream's acceptance of high prices is increasing [9] - **Inventory**: LME copper futures inventory decreased slightly, while domestic social inventory slowly increased due to the suppression of high - price copper on downstream purchases [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets No specific analysis content provided, only figure names such as "Domestic Futures and Spot Prices", "Shanghai Flat - water Copper Premiums and Discounts", "LME Copper 3 - Month Forward Price", and "Shanghai - London Ratio" are mentioned [14][17] 3.3 Supply and Inventory - **Global Copper Resource Distribution**: Global copper resources are mainly distributed in Chile, Peru, Australia, Russia, and Mexico. Chile has the largest copper reserves, accounting for 21.3%, while China's copper resources are relatively scarce, accounting for only 3% [23] - **Global Copper Capital Expenditure**: Long - term capital expenditure suppresses incremental supply. Old mines have declining grades and rising geopolitical risks, making stable production difficult. Optimistically, the global copper mine production increments in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 560,000, 1.28 million, and 470,000 tons respectively, with corresponding growth rates of about 2.5%, 5.6%, and 1.9%. Under neutral conditions, the supply growth rates in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are about 2.0%, 3.0%, and 1.0% [24] - **Copper Concentrate**: As of November 7, 2025, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate was - $42.00 per dry ton, and the comprehensive spot price was $2,859 per dry ton. The zero - order spot processing fee is far below the break - even point. In August 2025, the global copper concentrate output was 1.5328 million tons, and from January to August, it was 12.1509 million tons [29] - **Global Copper Production Distribution**: In 2023, major copper - producing countries included Chile, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Peru, etc. In 2024, the global copper mine production capacity reached 28.63 million tons, a 3.78% increase year - on - year, but the capacity utilization rate decreased from 82.20% in 2020 to 80.1% in 2024 [23][36] - **Copper Concentrate Imports and Inventory**: In September 2025, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.587 million tons, a 0.1% year - on - year increase. From January to September, imports were 22.634 million tons, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. In the 45th week of 2025, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate in China was 498,000 tons [39] - **Global Copper Supply - Demand and China's Smelting Break - even**: The global copper concentrate supply - demand balance is expected to show different situations in different years. China's electrolytic copper production and import data in 2024 and 2025 are also provided [41][46] - **International and Domestic Copper Inventories**: As of November 6, 2025, the LME inventory was 134,000 tons, and the New York market copper inventory reached 369,400 tons. The domestic social inventory was 202,600 tons, and the SHFE inventory fluctuated at a low level [59][60][63] 3.4 Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Primary Processing Market**: In September 2025, China's copper product output was 2.232 million tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative output was 18.575 million tons, a 9.6% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and from January to September, the cumulative imports were 4.019 million tons, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative exports were 1.1428 million tons, a 10.9% year - on - year increase [69][73] - **Terminal Market - Power**: The national power grid project investment was 437.8 billion yuan, a 9.9% year - on - year increase [77] - **Terminal Market - Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, the national real estate development investment was 6.7706 trillion yuan, a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [81] - **Terminal Market - Automobile**: From January to September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million vehicles respectively, a 13.3% and 12.9% year - on - year increase. New energy vehicle production and sales were 11.243 million and 11.228 million vehicles respectively, a 35.2% and 34.9% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 46.1%. The total copper consumption of new energy vehicles and charging piles is expected to increase from 1.882 million tons in 2025 to 4.847 million tons in 2030 [85][88] - **Terminal Market - Home Appliances**: In September 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 18.095 million units, a 3.0% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative output was 216.571 million units, a 4.4% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, China exported 366.563 million home appliances, and from January to September, the cumulative exports were 3.359991 billion units, a 0.8% year - on - year increase [92] - **Terminal Market - New Energy**: As of the end of September, the national solar power generation installed capacity was 1.13 billion kilowatts, a 45.7% year - on - year increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 580 million kilowatts, a 21.3% year - on - year increase [96] - **Global Copper Downstream Consumption and Green Demand Forecast**: The new energy demand for copper is expected to enter a stage of "high base * normal growth rate = high increment". It is estimated that in 2025, the green demand for copper (photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles) will exceed the construction demand [100] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It is expected that the global copper supply will still be slightly in surplus in 2025 but will decrease significantly compared to 2024. It is expected to be slightly in short supply in 2026 and the shortage will widen in 2027. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the actual consumption growth rate of China's electrolytic copper in 2025 is expected to be 1.91% [107] - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific analysis content provided.