Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, but the traditional domestic consumption off - season has suppressed downstream demand. The total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad has been rising, indicating that there is still room for the Shanghai copper price to fall. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On August 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,330 yuan, down 70 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 62,389 lots, a decrease of 18,554 lots; the open interest was 163,558 lots, a decrease of 4,113 lots; the inventory was 20,348 tons, a decrease of 1 ton; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,420 yuan, up 90 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai copper basis was 90 yuan, up 160 yuan from the previous day. The spot discounts in Guangzhou, North China, and East China were -55 yuan, -120 yuan, and 30 yuan respectively, with changes of -40 yuan, 0 yuan, and -5 yuan [2]. - The spreads between near - month and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper showed different changes. For example, the spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract was 20 yuan, up 30 yuan [2]. - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on August 4, 2025, was 9,708.5 US dollars, up 75.5 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 139,575 tons [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 4, 2025, was 4.456 US dollars, up 0.03 US dollars from the previous day, and the total inventory was 261,180 tons, an increase of 3,265 tons [2]. Industry News - Mitsubishi Materials Corporation is considering reducing the copper concentrate processing volume of its Onahama Smelting Co., Ltd. After the scheduled equipment maintenance from October to November this year, it plans to reduce the copper concentrate processing volume through partial facility shutdowns while maintaining the processing volume of electronic waste to improve the utilization rate of recycled materials and profitability [2]. - Non - formal miners in Peru have suspended negotiations with the government and may resume protests due to differences in the negotiations. The government refuses to adjust the August 17 deadline and requires miners to transfer explosives to formal "powder magazines" [2]. Supply and Demand Situation - European high - quality scrap steel exports are restricted, and Chinese importers can only purchase steel shot or brass. Uncertainty in Sino - US tariff negotiations has led to a low direct import of US scrap copper by traders. The negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper has weakened the economic viability of scrap copper, closing the scrap copper import window [2][3]. - Some copper smelters at home and abroad are facing production adjustments. For example, Glencore's PASIAR copper smelter in the Philippines has stopped production, and Zhongkuang Resources' Isunebag plant in Namibia has suspended production due to a shortage of copper concentrate supply [3]. - Some new projects are under construction or planned to be put into production. For example, Jianggang Hongyuan's second - phase project with an annual output of 150,000 tons of cathode copper started construction in Guixi at the end of March, and the 200,000 - ton high - purity copper project in Baotou Jinshan Economic Development Zone started construction on June 24 [3]. Investment Strategy - Due to the expected increase in domestic crude copper production and the possible decrease in electrolytic copper production and import in August, and the increase in total electrolytic copper inventory at home and abroad, it is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3].

尽管仍处于严重亏损状态，但过去一个月，工厂处理铜精矿所收取的现货费用已经走高，这表明冶炼厂可能已开始更好地根据矿石供应情况调整产能。 一些海外竞争对手缺乏许多中国运营商享有的政府支持，已经开始减产。中国采取类似举措将对市场产生重大影响，因为中国精炼金属产量占全球总量的 一半以上。 近十年前，中国政府对铝冶炼厂实施了产能限制，并自2020年以来一直在引导钢铁产量下降。铜行业被视为高科技和绿色制造的关键，受到的限制较少。 但由于开采的矿石（用于制成精矿）及其替代原料——废铜——的短缺，冶炼的经济效益受到了重创。 SMM表示，中国港口精矿库存已降至今年最低水平，略高于56万吨，迫使冶炼厂削减产量。SMM表示，由于五家总产能90万吨的冶炼厂进行维护，9月 份产量预计将进一步下降。 彭博新闻社8月4日报道：中国的铜冶炼厂可能正处于一个转折点，持续的矿石短缺迫使它们削减产量，而与此同时，政府正加大力度打击各行业的产能过 剩。 根据研究公司上海有色金属市场(SMM)对冶炼厂的月度调查，该机构预计本月产量为120万吨，较7月份的峰值下降0.5%。预计9月份产量将进一步下降。 随着产能扩张，中国钢铁产量近几个月来接连创下历史新 ...

Group 1 - Codelco faces significant operational challenges due to a tunnel collapse at its El Teniente copper mine, resulting in six fatalities and production interruptions [1] - El Teniente is Codelco's largest single mine, producing 356,000 tons in 2023, accounting for over a quarter of the company's total output, equivalent to more than a month of China's refined copper imports [1] - Underground operations at the mine have been fully suspended, with ongoing investigations into the cause of the accident, but the duration of the shutdown and its impact on annual production targets remain unclear [1] Group 2 - LME copper prices have risen for the second consecutive day, increasing by 0.5% to $9,688 per ton, influenced by the news of the mine incident [1] - The global copper smelting industry is experiencing intense resource competition, with smelting fees remaining deeply negative, leading to production cuts or suspensions in some smelters in the Philippines and Japan [1] - Market concerns are heightened regarding supply stability due to operational fluctuations at other mines, such as the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1] Group 3 - Other metal prices showed a general increase, driven by a weaker dollar, with Singapore iron ore futures rising by 1.23% to $101.23 per ton, partially recovering from the largest weekly decline since April [2] - The incident at Codelco, combined with global supply chain tensions, may have lasting impacts on the short-term metal market landscape [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Maintain a strategy of buying on dips in August. The shortage of copper mines this year is more severe than last year, and the overall shortage of copper mines throughout the year supports copper prices. In the short - term, due to the implementation of copper tariffs (excluding electrolytic copper) and the further decline of the September interest - rate cut expectation, copper prices are in a continuous adjustment, with a support level at 77,000. In the medium - to - long - term, there are still expectations of two interest - rate cuts this year, and the tight supply of copper mines will continue to support copper prices, so the strategy of buying on dips is maintained [6][7]. Summary by Directory 01后市研判 - In August, maintain the strategy of buying on dips. The shortage of copper mines this year is more severe than last year, providing support for copper prices. In the short - term, copper prices are adjusting due to tariff implementation and the decline of the September interest - rate cut expectation, with a support at 77,000. In the medium - to - long - term, expect two interest - rate cuts this year, and continue to maintain the buying - on - dips strategy [6][7]. 02行情回顾 - In July, copper prices remained in a high - level consolidation. From late June to early July, due to the expectation that the 232 policy might be implemented in September or October, the shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions intensified, and copper prices rose. On July 3, Shanghai copper reached 80,990 yuan/ton, equivalent to 10,000 US dollars/ton for London copper. On July 8, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, and copper prices fell from the high. On July 14, copper prices hit the monthly low of 77,700 yuan/ton. In late July, the "anti - involution" trend and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station project boosted market sentiment, and copper prices reached 80,000 yuan/ton again. But after the sentiment faded, copper prices returned to the fundamentals [9][10]. 03宏观面 - **International Situation**: On August 1, the 50% copper tariff excluded electrolytic copper, copper ore, and scrap copper. Excluding the electrolytic copper tariff made the CME market almost eliminate the tariff premium, and there is a possibility of US electrolytic copper flowing out, accelerating the supply - demand balance in non - US regions. In July, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. Powell's speech was hawkish, and the strong US economic and employment data increased the risk of inflation, causing the September interest - rate cut expectation to decline further, and the US dollar index rebounded, suppressing copper prices. In the medium - to - long - term, as the tariff situation eases and the actual US CPI shows a moderate increase, the market has been lowering CPI expectations, opening up space for interest - rate cuts in Q3, and there are still expectations of two interest - rate cuts this year, which will gradually remove the upward pressure on metals [8]. - **US Economic Data**: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than expected. In July, the ADP employment increased by 104,000, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average. The second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly initial value increased by 3%, significantly exceeding market expectations. The core PCE price index in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than expected. The strong US economic and employment data increased the risk of inflation, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut expectation may be further reduced [20]. - **Domestic Situation**: The domestic economy is generally stable, and there is an expectation for the accelerated implementation of growth - stabilizing policies. From the supply side, according to the "Implementation Plan for the High - Quality Development of the Copper Industry (2025 - 2027)", copper smelting development will shift from capacity expansion to quality and efficiency improvement, and the contradiction between mining and smelting is expected to be gradually alleviated. From the demand side, the "anti - involution" policies focus on a new round of growth - stabilizing actions, and the stable growth of the manufacturing industry will boost copper demand. In the medium - to - long - term, after the elimination of over - capacity, the supply growth rate may lag behind the demand improvement rate, further pushing up the copper price [23][26]. 04基本面 - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.3497 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. The supply from the top two suppliers, Chile and Peru, continued to decline, with Peru's decline being around 15%. The long - term processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas miners this year are zero, and the spot processing fees remain low, indicating that the tight supply of copper mines is difficult to ease in the short term [27]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fees**: As of the week of July 25, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 42.98 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.22 US dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market for copper concentrates remained relatively inactive, and the processing fees showed a trend of "stabilizing with a slight correction". The 2025 Q2 CSPC general manager's meeting decided not to set a reference figure for the Q3 spot copper concentrate processing fees [30]. - **Refined Copper Inventory**: Affected by the 232 tariff policy, the rush to import copper started in April. In April and May, the US imported 200,000 tons and 210,000 tons of refined copper respectively, far exceeding the historical average of 80,000 tons, causing a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions. As of June 30, the LME inventory dropped to 90,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons from the beginning of the year. With the implementation of the 232 policy, the LME inventory started to increase, reaching 128,000 tons by July 25. The New York copper inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a new high in more than seven years. As of July 31, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 121,300 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from the 28th [33]. - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: In the first half of 2025, domestic electrolytic copper production reached a new high. From January to June, the cumulative production was 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 674,700 tons, or 11.40%. In July, the estimated production was 1.1504 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Although smelting is in a loss - making stage, the willingness to actively reduce production is not strong [36]. - **Scrap Copper Import**: In June, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand, the new largest scrap copper supplier, continued to rise by more than 20%, and the supply from Asian countries such as Japan, Malaysia, and South Korea also increased to varying degrees, while the supply from the US decreased by more than 80%. Due to the adjustment of the smelting raw material structure, the increased supply from other countries compensated for the decrease from the US [39]. - **Demand Side** - **Power Sector**: In 2025, the State Grid's investment is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time. From January to June, the power grid investment was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The power source project investment increased by 5.9% year - on - year, mainly due to the over - expected growth of photovoltaic and wind power installations. If the two - grid companies complete their planned investment of 825 billion yuan, there is still significant room for growth in power grid investment. Affected by the off - season and high copper prices, the cable operating rate in June dropped to 72.41%. From January to June, China's cable exports were 1.4296 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.63%. The "Belt and Road" countries have great potential in promoting China's power material exports [41]. - **Real Estate Sector**: From January to June, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and housing construction area decreased by 9.1%. New housing starts decreased by 20.0%, and housing completions decreased by 14.8%. Although real estate sales are basically stable and inventory is decreasing, the demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak [45]. - **Automobile Sector**: From January to June, automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is approaching 50%. China's automobile exports were 3.083 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, with new energy vehicle exports increasing by 75.2%. The growth of the automobile industry will drive copper consumption [48]. - **Home Appliance Sector**: In June, the national air - conditioner production was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 163.296 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. In August, the combined production plan for air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. The production plan for household air - conditioners in August was 11.443 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%, but the decline was expected to narrow compared to the previous month. The high - temperature weather in summer and the "trade - in" subsidy policy promoted air - conditioner sales and inventory digestion [51].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump on July 30 aims to impose a 50% tariff on certain copper imports to address national security concerns, but the impact on U.S. copper imports is less than market expectations, with a significant portion of copper imported before the tariff implementation being exempt from these tariffs [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The announcement imposes a 50% tariff on copper semi-finished products and copper-intensive derivative products, effective from August 1 [2]. - Copper raw materials and scrap are exempt from the 232 tariffs, and these tariffs do not overlap with automotive tariffs [2]. - The tariffs apply based on the copper content in products, while non-copper content is subject to other applicable tariffs [2]. Group 2: Import Impact - The copper tariff is expected to have limited impact, as the majority of U.S. copper imports come from countries like Chile (33.6%), Canada (30.4%), and Mexico (7.6%) [3]. - In the first half of 2025, U.S. companies have already imported more copper than the total for 2024, with 74.3% of this copper being exempt from tariffs [3]. Group 3: China's Role - The products affected by the copper tariffs from China represent a small portion of overall U.S. imports, with less than 5% of imports from China in 2024 [4]. Group 4: Industry Restructuring - The announcement requires that 25% of copper raw materials produced in the U.S. be sold domestically, increasing to 40% by 2029, which aims to enhance U.S. smelting capacity [5]. - There are ongoing investments in U.S. processing capacity, such as a $500 million investment by Wieland Rolled Products in Illinois [5]. - The restructuring of the copper industry is expected to take a long time due to the current weaknesses in U.S. smelting capacity [5]. Group 5: Price Dynamics - The absence of restrictions on copper raw materials is expected to lead to a return to supply-demand pricing for copper, with increased exports to regions outside the U.S. [6]. - The current market conditions indicate that LME copper prices will be influenced by supply and demand factors, particularly as U.S. imports have already surpassed last year's total [6].

沪铜产业日报 2025/7/31 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 78,040.00 | -890.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,626.00 | -72.50↓ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -10.00 | 0.00 主力 ...

Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, focusing on the economic situation and planning for the second half of 2025[2] - The meeting emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and adapt as necessary, with a focus on unleashing domestic demand and preventing risks in key sectors[2] - The meeting's outcomes are expected to enhance the certainty of future economic development, aligning with market expectations[2] U.S. Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change[3] - There is an increasing internal division within the Fed, with two members opposing the rate decision, suggesting a potential for future rate cuts if economic slowdown continues[3] - The Fed's future rate decisions will depend on inflation trends, with indications that the impact of tariffs on prices may take longer than anticipated[3] Commodity and Industry Updates - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association plans to strictly control new capacities in copper smelting and alumina, addressing over-investment in certain sectors[4] - U.S. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1, leading to a significant drop in copper prices, with New York copper futures falling over 18%[4] - Major memory manufacturers are exiting niche DRAM markets, which may lead to price increases for DDR4 DRAM in 2025 and 2026 due to supply-demand reversals[5] Market Performance Indicators - The latest 10-year government bond yield is at 1.727%, with a change of -1.41 basis points[6] - The USDCNH exchange rate is at 7.2123, reflecting a 0.44% increase, while the U.S. dollar index stands at 99.97, up by 1.06%[8] - The A-share market's trading volume over the past six months is reported at 1.871 trillion yuan, with a turnover rate of 4.11%[17] Industry Trends - The top three performing sectors are steel, petroleum and petrochemicals, and media, indicating strong sectoral performance[22] - The net capital inflow for the top three sectors on a given day includes media, food and beverage, and social services, suggesting investor interest in these areas[24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the non-ferrous metals industry [8][13]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) announced plans to release new growth stabilization work plans for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, aiming to optimize supply and eliminate outdated production capacity [5]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to strengthen the execution of policies, leading to the accelerated exit of inefficient copper smelting capacity, thereby improving the oversupply situation in copper smelting [12]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of the end of 2024, China's copper smelting capacity is projected to reach 10.99 million tons for crude smelting and 14.57 million tons for refined smelting, with year-on-year increases of 0.66 million tons and 1.27 million tons, respectively [10]. - The national electrolytic copper production in the first half of 2025 reached 6.593 million tons, marking an 11.4% year-on-year increase [10]. Market Dynamics - The copper concentrate processing fees have turned negative, putting pressure on smelting profits. As of July 25, 2025, the spot processing fee for copper concentrate was -42.75 USD/ton, a decrease of 51.9 USD/ton year-on-year [11]. - The smelting profit for copper concentrate was reported at -2561 RMB/ton for spot and 228 RMB/ton for long-term contracts, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 579 RMB/ton and 1423 RMB/ton, respectively [11][20]. Policy Implications - The MIIT's implementation plan for high-quality development in the copper industry emphasizes orderly development in copper smelting, requiring new projects to match a corresponding ratio of copper concentrate capacity [12]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to facilitate the exit of outdated smelting capacity, which will help improve the overall profitability of the copper industry [13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies with leading copper production, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, as well as smelting companies with capacity and cost advantages like Jiangxi Copper and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [13].

铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-7-25 中航期货 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 给、 | 影 | 到 | 内 | 供 | 看， | 来 | 及 | 时， | 受 | 季 | 供 | 国 | 撑78000， | 优 | 以 | 撑78000 | 以 | 加 | 来 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 前 | 断 | 淡 | 优 | 同 | 年 | 缩 | 增 | 面 | 构、 | 不 | 目 | 半 | 萎 | 比 | 方 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 构 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the copper smelting industry in China, highlighting production capacity, profitability challenges, and potential policy changes aimed at regulating the industry [2][5][6]. Production - In 2024, China's electrolytic copper production is expected to reach 13.64 million tons, accounting for 59% of global primary electrolytic copper production, with a compound annual growth rate of 10% since 2004 [3]. - The top ten companies in the copper smelting sector hold approximately 76% of the market share, with major producers including Jiangxi Copper (2.29 million tons), Tongling Nonferrous (1.77 million tons), and Jinchuan Group (1.33 million tons) [3]. Expansion - As of June 2025, the smelting operating rate is around 86%, with 2.98 million tons of production capacity yet to be put into operation. The annualized capacity for June 2025 is estimated at 15.88 million tons [4]. Profitability - The processing fee (TC/RC) has dropped significantly, with the spot price as of July 18, 2025, at -$43.2 per ton, marking a historical low. The long-term processing fee has also fallen to $0 per ton, forcing smelting companies to rely on by-products like sulfuric acid for profitability [5]. - If sulfuric acid prices decline further, smelting companies may face potential losses due to the lack of processing fee income [5]. Policy Implications - The implementation of "anti-involution" policies in the copper industry could limit new smelting capacity and accelerate the exit of smaller smelting operations. This may alleviate the current overcapacity and improve future profitability for smelting companies, especially as downstream consumption continues to grow due to sectors like renewable energy and grid upgrades [6].