1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, alumina prices are expected to decline with reduced volatility due to a more relaxed ore supply and a slightly oversupplied production capacity [1][29][92] - The growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down significantly as the operating capacity approaches the ceiling, and imports are expected to increase to offset the supply - demand gap. The downstream demand for aluminum is undergoing a structural transformation [2][45][92] - The price of aluminum alloy will still be pegged to the price of aluminum in 2026, but its seasonal performance will be weaker than before [3][53][93] - The price of aluminum and aluminum alloy is expected to show an upward trend in 2026, driven by factors such as global economic recovery, new - energy transformation, and power construction [3][93] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 2025 Market Review - In 2025, aluminum prices showed a trend of oscillating upward breakthrough, divided into three stages: oscillating upward from January to mid - March, oscillating downward from mid - March to early April, and oscillating upward from early April to November. The price fluctuations were affected by various factors such as policies, tariffs, inventory changes, and macro - events [6][7][8] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Bauxite - Domestic bauxite production increased slightly in 2025, with a growth rate of 5.2% from January to November. However, production was restricted in some areas due to safety and environmental regulations. Imported bauxite increased significantly, with imports from January to October reaching 171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The price of imported bauxite decreased due to increased supply. There were some disturbances in the supply from Guinea, and the political situation in Guinea may affect future supply policies [14][16][18] 3.2.2 Alumina - In 2025, alumina production increased, with output from January to October reaching 78.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.56%. The price first declined, then rebounded, and then fell again. New production capacity was limited in 2025, mainly from Guangxi Huasheng Phase II, Shandong Chuangyuan New Materials, and Hebei Wenfeng. In 2026, new overseas production capacity will be mainly in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Alumina production capacity is expected to be slightly oversupplied in 2026, and prices will be determined by cost, showing an oscillating downward trend [22][24][29] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - In 2025, the built - in and operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, with production from January to October reaching 36.8908 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.57%. Many enterprises resumed production due to improved profitability, while some enterprises carried out technical upgrades and maintenance, resulting in production cuts. New production capacity mainly came from Shuangyuan Aluminum, Chalco Qinghai, and others. In 2026, new domestic production capacity will mainly come from Huomeihongjun Zhalv Phase II and Tianshan Aluminum. Overseas production capacity increased in 2025, mainly in Indonesia, Russia, and other countries, and is expected to increase by 1.8 million tons in 2026. The growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down significantly in 2026, and imports are expected to increase [30][35][45] 3.2.4 Aluminum Alloy - Although the import of scrap aluminum was liberalized in 2024, there was no significant increase in 2025 due to factors such as the cancellation of export tax rebates, tariff differences, and tightened trade policies in some countries. The production of recycled aluminum alloy increased steadily, and the listing of aluminum alloy futures promoted production. After the listing of the futures, the production of cast aluminum alloy increased significantly, suppressing the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the seasonal effect was weakened [48][50][52] 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Real Estate - In 2025, the real estate market continued to decline. In 2026, the real estate market is expected to continue to bottom out, and the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector will continue to decrease. However, urban renewal and affordable rental housing will support part of the aluminum demand [54][56][58] 3.3.2 Infrastructure - In 2025, the issuance of local government special bonds increased, but part of the funds was used for debt repayment, resulting in a slowdown in infrastructure investment growth. The investment in the power grid reached a new high. In 2026, with the increase in special bond quotas and the promotion of power grid construction, the demand for aluminum in infrastructure is expected to increase by 5% [59][61][69] 3.3.3 Automobile - In 2025, the automobile market had good production and sales performance, with new - energy vehicle penetration exceeding 50%. In 2026, although consumption policies are expected to be strengthened and export demand is optimistic, factors such as the reduction of new - energy vehicle purchase tax exemption and the implementation of new battery standards may lead to flat demand for aluminum in the automobile industry [70][72][75] 3.3.4 Photovoltaic - In 2025, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic increased significantly in the first half of the year but decreased sharply after June due to the "430 New Policy" and "531 New Policy". In 2026, the new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic is expected to decline significantly, and although the overseas new installed capacity is expected to grow at a rate of 25%, the overall demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic industry is expected to decrease [76][79][82] 3.3.5 Aluminum and Aluminum Product Exports - In 2025, the net export of aluminum products decreased, mainly due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and the imposition of tariffs. The export of aluminum products increased. In 2026, due to the continuation of policies and the strengthening of the domestic aluminum price, the net export of aluminum and aluminum products is expected to decline [83][85][86] 3.4 Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - In the first half of 2025, aluminum inventories decreased significantly, while in the second half, they increased seasonally. In 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market is expected to have a shortage of 100,000 tons [88][90][91] 3.5 2026 Outlook - Alumina prices are expected to decline with reduced volatility; the growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down, imports will increase, and downstream demand will transform; the price of aluminum alloy will be pegged to aluminum with weaker seasonality; the price of aluminum and aluminum alloy is expected to rise [92][93]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price center of aluminum is expected to move upward, while alumina will continue to face pressure, and cast aluminum alloy lacks upward momentum [1]. - The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting, and OpenAI plans to release the new model GPT - 5.2 ahead of schedule [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 22,345 yuan, up 285 yuan from the previous trading day. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price is 2,901 US dollars, up 13 US dollars. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract have changed compared with previous periods [1]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 2,555 yuan, down 60 yuan. The trading volume and open interest have also shown corresponding changes [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 21,190 yuan, up 120 yuan. The trading volume and open interest have changed as well [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots is 593,000 tons, with no change from the previous day. The import and export profits and losses of electrolytic aluminum have different degrees of change [1]. - **Alumina Spot**: The average domestic alumina price is 2,831 yuan, down 20 yuan. The prices of imported alumina from different sources have also changed [1]. - **Aluminum Bauxite Spot**: The prices of imported aluminum bauxite from Australia, Indonesia, and Guinea have different degrees of change [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is - 272 yuan, and the price of Baotai ADC12 is 21,100 yuan [1]. Other Information - The trend strength of aluminum is 1, alumina is - 1, and aluminum alloy is 0, indicating different market outlooks [3].

氧化铝周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 减产迟迟未能兑现 氧化铝空头氛围浓 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端，近期国内外矿端保持平静，国内矿石维持偏 紧价格持稳。进口矿近期成交活跃度不高，主要以 几内亚、澳大利亚长单执行为主，氧化铝利润不断 压缩对铝土矿采购态度谨慎。供应端上周有山西 地区氧化铝企业减产，预计持续20天，日度影响产 量2000吨。进口窗口保持开启，进口氧化铝后续仍 有流入预期。消费端上周氧化铝价再度加速下跌， 电解铝企业采购意愿稍有抬升，但大多压价成交， 周末现货价格出现较大跌幅。仓单库存25.3万吨 周内减 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6] Core Viewpoints - A super cycle for industrial metals may have arrived, with a focus on copper and aluminum sectors. The report highlights that even small supply-demand gaps can lead to significant price elasticity during a rate-cutting cycle [9][13] - Copper prices have surged, with LME copper closing at a historical high of $11,655 per ton, driven by supply tightness and tariff concerns [9][13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from strong demand in energy storage, with projections indicating a need for 800,000 tons of aluminum materials due to the anticipated growth in storage battery production [9][14] - The gold sector is also viewed positively, with expectations for gold prices to exceed $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by rising inflation expectations [9][15] Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report indicates a significant increase in metal prices, with copper and aluminum prices rising sharply. The LME copper price increased by 1.88% recently, reflecting strong market conditions [9][13] - Supply constraints are evident, with LME copper warehouse cancellations reaching 56,900 tons, about 35% of total inventory, marking the largest single-day withdrawal in 13 years [9][13] - The report suggests that the copper and aluminum sectors will see continued price increases due to strong demand from traditional and new energy sectors [9][13][14] Steel - The steel sector is experiencing weak supply-demand fundamentals during the off-season, with a slight recovery in steel profitability noted [17] - Weekly rebar consumption decreased by 4.81% compared to the previous week, indicating a decline in demand [21] - Overall steel prices have shown a slight increase, with the rebar price rising to 3,355 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.16% week-on-week increase [38][39] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in October 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 67.28%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [42] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales in October 2025 showing year-on-year growth of 19.94% and 18.65%, respectively [46] - Nickel production and consumption trends are mixed, with refined nickel output in China showing a notable year-on-year decline of 12.20% [44][49] Price Trends - The report notes that lithium prices have seen a slight decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 91,100 yuan per ton, down 2.36% week-on-week [51][52] - Cobalt prices have increased significantly, with sulfuric acid cobalt priced at 90,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 236.45% [51][52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to an increase in aluminum prices [6][11] - Domestic aluminum supply is slightly increasing due to new projects, while demand is expected to weaken as the year-end approaches [7][11] - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of December 5, 2025, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2900.5 per ton, up $35.5 from the previous week, and up $262.0 year-on-year [24] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was ¥22,345.0 per ton, an increase of ¥735.0 week-on-week and ¥1,765.0 year-on-year [24] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was ¥22,150.0 per ton, up ¥720.0 week-on-week and ¥1,740.0 year-on-year [24] 2. Production - In November 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.637 million tons, a decrease of 106,000 tons month-on-month and 66,000 tons year-on-year [56] - The production of alumina in November 2025 was 7.439 million tons, down 346,000 tons month-on-month but up 152,000 tons year-on-year [56] 3. Inventory - As of December 4, 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 596,000 tons, unchanged week-on-week [7] - The inventory of alumina at electrolytic aluminum plants reached 3.365 million tons, with a weekly increase of 19,000 tons [34] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Price ¥30.67, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥2.54, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Price ¥14.07, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥1.00, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Price ¥27.20, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥2.13, with a "Buy" rating [5] - China Aluminum (601600.SH): Price ¥11.40, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥0.84, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ): Price ¥28.31, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥1.88, with a "Buy" rating [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in alumina futures prices has breached the cash production cost line for most domestic alumina producers, indicating a significant oversupply in the market [2][5][6]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Conditions - On December 5, 2025, the main alumina futures contract closed at 2590 yuan/ton, marking a new low and falling below the 2600 yuan/ton threshold [2][5]. - The current futures price is below the industry-recognized cash production cost range of 2850 to 2950 yuan/ton, with total costs between 3070 to 3170 yuan/ton [5][11]. - The simultaneous decline in both futures and spot prices has created a "double kill" scenario, where market participants face losses regardless of their positions [2][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The industry consensus is forming that unless there is a substantial reduction in production through maintenance, the downward trend in prices is unlikely to reverse [3][12]. - Domestic alumina production capacity remains high, leading to a clear oversupply situation, particularly with inventory pressures from delivery warehouses [6][12]. - The demand for alumina is constrained by the total capacity of the downstream electrolytic aluminum industry, limiting the potential for significant increases in consumption [7][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - The expectation of passive production cuts is becoming a reality, as high-cost producers face losses with current pricing levels [11][12]. - External market uncertainties, particularly regarding raw material prices, could further impact high-cost production capacities [12]. - Despite potential positive influences from policy factors, immediate challenges include increased production capacity, falling bauxite prices, and rising import volumes [13].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market has experienced a significant decline, with the main contract closing at 2590 yuan/ton, marking a new low and falling below the cash production cost line for most domestic producers [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The recent drop in aluminum oxide prices has created a "double kill" scenario, where both futures and spot prices have plummeted, leading to widespread losses for market participants [1]. - The current futures price is below the marginal cash cost range of 2850 to 2950 yuan/ton, with total costs estimated between 3070 and 3170 yuan/ton, indicating that approximately 90% of domestic production is unprofitable [2]. - The inventory situation is critical, particularly in Xinjiang, where the delivery warehouse is nearing full capacity, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and putting further downward pressure on prices [2]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The demand for aluminum oxide is constrained by the overall capacity limits in the downstream electrolytic aluminum industry, with only limited incremental demand expected [3]. - The opening of import channels has led to an influx of aluminum oxide, further intensifying domestic supply pressures [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The decline in prices is prompting concerns about potential production cuts among high-cost aluminum oxide producers, particularly in northern regions [4]. - Falling prices below cash costs are leading to increased likelihood of "passive production cuts" as smelters face profitability issues [5]. - The market is transitioning from a previously tight balance to structural oversupply, driven by both domestic price pressures and uncertainties in overseas markets [6]. - Future challenges include rising production capacity, new investments, and increased imports, which may counteract any potential positive impacts from policy measures aimed at limiting capacity [7].

研究所 基本面供应过剩不改 氧化铝或延续弱势 多头情绪回暖 铝价重心再抬升 ——国信期货有色（铝产业链）周报 2025年12月5日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 1.1 行情概览 研究所 宏观面：12月3日公布的数据显示，美国11月ADP就业人数从前值4.2万人大幅下降至-3.2万人，远低于预期值1万人。该数据 的大幅下降使得市场普遍认定美联储将在12月继续降息25个基点，CME美联储观察最新数据显示，12月美联储降息概率已飙 升至89%。 重要消息：据新华社，山西已建成281座绿色矿山。铝土矿预计新增产能约1000万吨/年。阿拉丁（ALD）综合新闻了解，近 日澳大利亚联邦能源部长克里斯•鲍恩确认，政府正与托马戈铝厂（Tomago）进行谈判，计划通过提供稳定且廉价的可再生能 源，帮助该厂维持运营。据了解，托马戈铝厂隶属于力拓集团，总建成产能为58万吨，目前基本处于满负荷生产状态，澳大 利亚工党推行的能源计划导致托Tomago生产所用的部分煤电成本面临上涨压力,进而导致在2028年电力协约到期后没有更积 极的意 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current labor market in the United States is weak, and the decline in ADP employment data in November has further increased the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The economic sentiment in China is generally stable, and attention should be paid to the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. In the aluminum industry, the supply of domestic bauxite is tight, while the overseas supply may be relatively loose. The operating capacity of alumina is slightly decreasing at a high level, and the price may fluctuate at a low level. The production of electrolytic aluminum in October increased year - on - year, but the downstream processing start - up rate is decreasing. The inventory of domestic and foreign exchanges has declined, and the social inventory has slightly increased. In terms of the market outlook, it is recommended to be bullish on aluminum prices after the correction, and for aluminum alloy, wait for the opportunity to buy on the correction [5][11][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The latest ADP employment data shows that private enterprises in the United States reduced 32,000 jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023, far lower than the market expectation of an increase of 10,000. The US manufacturing PMI index in November decreased by 0.5 points to 48.2, continuously below the boom - bust line of 50 for nine months, with the new order index and backlog orders showing significant contractions. Domestically, the economic sentiment is generally stable. In the aluminum industry, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has little change, the supply side is stable, and the demand side shows a weakening trend. The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has decreased, and the social inventory has slightly increased. It is recommended to be bullish on aluminum prices after the correction, paying attention to the results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December and the subsequent interest rate cut path prediction [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has little change; the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates is rising; the overseas aluminum supply - demand tension still exists [8]. - **Bearish factors**: The downstream's fear of high prices has resurfaced, and the social inventory has turned to a slight accumulation; the terminal market has entered the off - season [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Bauxite**: In October, the domestic bauxite output was 4.7723 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. The supply in Henan has gradually recovered, while that in Shanxi has not fully recovered, and the domestic supply remains tight. In October, China imported 13.77 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month decrease of 13.30% and a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. It is expected that the import volume will increase significantly in November [17][20]. - **Alumina**: In October, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina was 7.7853 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The operating capacity is slightly decreasing at a high level, and the price may fluctuate at a low level due to factors such as profit compression and environmental protection control [24]. - **Electrolytic aluminum**: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.13% year - on - year and 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased. In November, with the implementation of environmental protection policies, the production of some enterprises may be restricted, and the aluminum - water ratio is expected to decline slightly [27]. - **Downstream processing**: The weekly start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.9% this week, and it is expected to continue to weaken in the short term [31]. - **Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory has slightly decreased to 530,900 tons, and the SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.82% to 115,277 tons in the week of November 28. As of December 4, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese regions was 593,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from Monday this week [42][46]. - **Price**: On December 5, the average price of aluminum in Shanghai Wumao had a larger discount, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 spread also had a larger discount [50]. - **Recycled aluminum**: In October, the output of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons month - on - month. As of November 27, the start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 61.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9% [54][58]. - **Aluminum alloy trade**: In October 2025, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 76,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1%. The export volume was 30,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.7% and a month - on - month increase of 31.5% [62]. - **Aluminum alloy inventory**: As of December 5, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 73,800 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from last week, and the in - plant inventory was 58,100 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from last week [67]. 3.4 Market Outlook Judgment - **Aluminum alloy**: Follow the trend of aluminum prices and wait for the opportunity to buy on the correction [68]. - **SHFE aluminum**: In the short term, aluminum prices are greatly affected by macro - sentiment. Pay attention to the results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December and the subsequent interest rate cut path prediction. It is recommended to be bullish on aluminum prices after the correction [70].

遇建大宗：铝的坦途 20251204 摘要 2025 年铝价已突破 22,000 元/吨，虽未达历史高点 25,000 元/吨，但 明年市场供需平衡，利好铝价逐步上行，对权益端友好。关注 4 月后虹 桥、华通线缆和中孚实业等阶段性脉冲表现。 预计 2026 年铝土矿 CIF 到岸价降至 60-65 美元/吨，因几内亚和塞拉利 昂产量增加。氧化铝市场过剩，期货价格已跌破 2,600 元/吨，预计明年 均价降至 2,800 元/吨，选股逻辑应倾向于氧化铝买入方。 中国电解铝产能接近极限，运行产能达 4,450 万吨。欧美及印尼等发展 中国家的电解铝供应值得关注，以评估全球供需平衡对价格的影响。技 术改造带来的超产对设备有潜在损害，政策执行力度影响供应。 美国对铝征收 50%关税，保护本土电解铝价格，使其免受 AI 抢占资源 的影响。欧洲电解铝厂规模小且设备老旧，面临被 AI 挤出市场的风险， 可能关停 330 万吨产能，对全球供应产生重大影响。 海外电解铝项目投产速度差异大，信发与青山合作模式速度快但不具普 适性。预计 2026-2028 年全球电解铝增速在 2.4%-3.5%之间，需关注 海外项目工期缩减的不确 ...