1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [7] - Alumina: Short - term wait - and - see, medium - to - long - term cautious short - selling of far - month contracts or consider reverse arbitrage if warehouse receipts increase [8][10] - Aluminum: Oscillating in a range [11] - Aluminum Alloy: Short - term low - level oscillation, medium - term potential for upward movement [12][14][15] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly, focus on high - short opportunities [15][16] - Lead: Oscillating [16][17][19] - Nickel: Oscillating weakly in the short term [19][20][22] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating in the short term [24] - Tin: Oscillating [25] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing US reciprocal tariff game and Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports have led to a cautious market sentiment, causing a decline in the non - ferrous metals market. In the short - to - medium term, tariff uncertainties and weakening demand expectations will suppress prices, with a focus on structural opportunities. In the long term, the demand prospects for non - ferrous metals remain uncertain [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Information Analysis**: Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper. The TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in mid - 2025 was 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. In June, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.34 tons month - on - month, a 0.3% decline, but increased by 12.93% year - on - year. As of July 7, copper inventory increased by 1.11 tons to 14.29 tons [7]. - **Main Logic**: Trump's tariff announcement has put pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the demand has weakened in the off - season. Inventories have started to accumulate, and the upward momentum of copper prices has cooled. It is expected that copper prices will oscillate [7]. Alumina - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina increased. The government of Guinea proposed GBX and exercised transportation rights. On July 8, alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The Xinjiang railway issued a suspension order from July 7 - 11 [8][10]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to - medium term, there is no shortage of ore, but the market sentiment has a significant impact. In the long term, the focus is on ore prices. The measures proposed by Guinea may increase costs. In the short term, wait and see; in the medium - to - long term, consider short - selling far - month contracts [8][10]. Aluminum - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the average price of SMM AOO was 20,660 yuan/ton. As of July 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods increased, and the warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE increased [11]. - **Main Logic**: The tariff negotiation deadline has been postponed, but there is still uncertainty. The fundamentals show inventory accumulation, and downstream willingness to buy at high prices has weakened. In the short term, prices will oscillate in a range; in the long term, consumption has potential risks [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged. Thailand plans to impose a carbon tax in 2025. In June, the retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy passenger cars increased year - on - year [12]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost is supportive. Demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 will oscillate at a low level; in the medium term, there is potential for upward movement [12][14][15]. Zinc - **Information Analysis**: As of July 9, the spot premium of zinc decreased, and the inventory increased. The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market risk preference has decreased. The supply of zinc ore has loosened, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory is accumulating, and prices are expected to decline in the long term [15][16]. Lead - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the price of waste batteries remained stable, and the price of lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots and SHFE warehouse receipts increased [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: The spot discount has slightly widened, and the supply has increased. The demand for lead - acid batteries has improved slightly. In the short term, prices will oscillate [16][17][19]. Nickel - **Information Analysis**: As of July 9, LME nickel inventory increased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Multiple nickel - related projects have advanced [19][20][21]. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The inventory has accumulated significantly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [19][20][22]. Stainless Steel - **Information Analysis**: The inventory of stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased. The price of nickel iron and chrome iron has declined, and the 300 - series is still in an inverted state [24]. - **Main Logic**: The cost support has weakened, and the demand is out of the peak season. The inventory has decreased, and it is expected that stainless steel prices will oscillate in the short term [24]. Tin - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, LME tin warehouse receipts increased, and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased. The price of tin ingots increased [25]. - **Main Logic**: The shortage of tin ore in China is intensifying, and the supply from Indonesia is affected. The supply - demand fundamentals are tightening, but the demand will weaken in the second half of the year. It is expected that tin prices will oscillate [25].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-08 氧化铝交割风险正在进行中 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20640元/吨，较上一交易日下跌130元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日持平于-40元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20510元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨10元/ 吨至-160元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20590元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨15元/吨至-75元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-07日沪铝主力合约开于20595元/吨，收于20410元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌230元/ 吨，跌幅-1.11%，最高价达20625元/吨，最低价达到20385元/吨。全天交易日成交148670手，较上一交易日增 加34299手，全天交易日持仓255324手，较上一交易日减少16863手。 电解铝：绝对价格大幅度回落，现货升水底部震荡，社会库存出现继续小幅增加。冶炼利润在消费淡季扩大至4000 元/吨，长期来看在供给受限的背景下，行业利润的高企不是限制铝价上涨的因素，短期来看铝价的进一步上涨需 要宏观向好+微观消费走强共振。当前正值消费淡季，社会库 ...

氧化铝及铝半年报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 冲击与支撑 核心观点及策略 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 22 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪 证 监 许 可 【2015】 84 号 李婷 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 ⚫ 氧化铝方面，上半年几内亚矿端虽有小扰动，但全年 铝土矿供应预计能满足需求。供应端氧化铝上半年已 投产720万吨新产能，还有460万吨产能待投放，新产 能都集中在沿海使用进口矿，无论从矿石供应及成本 角度看，都比较支持下半年这些新产能投放，供应增 加预期较强。需求端电解铝企业产能刚性，需求稳 定。在供 ...

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 消费前置也无忧下半年消费强度 新能源&有色组铝产业半年报 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 王育武 从业资格号：F03114162 投资咨询号：Z0022466 新能源&有色组 | 铝半年度报告 2025-07-06 消费前置也无忧下半年消费强度 研究院 新能源&有色组 陈思捷 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016047 师橙 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 从业资格号：F03139777 投资咨询号：Z0021579 研究员 陈思捷 021-60827968 chensijie@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016047 师橙 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：fengfan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03139777 投资咨询号：Z0021579 王育武 电话：021-60827969 邮箱 ...

Group 1 - Copper prices have surged unexpectedly, driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts and improving demand sentiment, alongside a declining US dollar index which benefits global commodities, particularly copper and aluminum [1] - The price difference between Comex copper and LME has widened to $1,400, indicating market speculation around the potential removal of Section 232 tariffs [1] - Global copper inventory levels are low, with LME copper stocks decreasing from 270,000 tons at the beginning of the year to 90,000 tons currently, leading to a significant increase in LME copper's backwardation to $320, indicating tightness in the spot market [1] Group 2 - In the copper sector, companies had previously priced in copper prices of $9,000 to $9,500, and the recent price surge is expected to lead to earnings upgrades for these companies [2] - Recommended copper stocks with alpha attributes include Jincheng Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, and Minmetals Resources, which are expected to benefit from improved performance and high profit elasticity [2] - In the aluminum sector, while some stocks like China Hongqiao and Zhongfu have shown strong performance, concerns about demand from the photovoltaic sector have led to weaker performance in other aluminum stocks, despite strong underlying demand [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [7] Core Views - The further rise of aluminum prices requires the resonance of macro - improvement and strong micro - consumption. In the current off - season, there is a slight increase in social inventory, with a small accumulation expected in July. Long - term attention should be paid to the price increase driven by stronger - than - expected consumption under the background of supply constraints [4]. - For alumina, the supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long term. Although the delivery risk has been alleviated, it still needs to be vigilant [6]. - For aluminum alloy, it is in the off - season, and the price increase space in the spot market is limited. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6]. Summary by Related Content Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,860 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,680 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 114,240 lots and a position of 281,092 lots. As of July 3, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 474,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 356,975 tons, up 350 tons from the previous day [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The spot market transaction premium is still falling, and social inventory shows signs of accumulation. The supply of the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited by the production capacity ceiling, and the industry profit is rich. The smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the off - season. In the short term, beware of price drops due to inventory accumulation; in the long term, pay attention to price increases driven by stronger - than - expected consumption [4]. Alumina - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,080 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,080 yuan/ton, and in Guangxi was 3,180 yuan/ton. The Australian alumina FOB price was 361.6 US dollars/ton. The alumina main contract closed at 3,026 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 336,450 lots and a position of 279,051 lots. The alumina warehouse receipt was 21,000 tons [2][3]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost side remains stable, and the new project of Guangtou is about to be put into production. The supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long term. Although the delivery risk has been alleviated, it still needs to be vigilant [5][6]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 15,300 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 15,400 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of aluminum alloy was 108,800 tons, up 2,100 tons week - on - week [3]. - **Market Analysis**: It is in the off - season, and the price increase space in the spot market is limited. The cost side supports the price, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-03 "反内卷"拉动氧化铝价格 铝期货方面：2025-07-02日沪铝主力合约开于20610元/吨，收于20635元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨75元/ 吨，涨幅0.36%，最高价达20725元/吨，最低价达到20600元/吨。全天交易日成交146289手，较上一交易日增 加11655手，全天交易日持仓283729手，较上一交易日增加630手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-30，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.8万吨。截止2025-07-02，LME铝库存356625 吨，较前一交易日增加8000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-02 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3075元/吨，山东价格录得3080元/吨，广西价格录得 3180元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得370美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-07-02氧化铝主力合约开于2948元/吨，收于3071元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨130 元/吨，涨幅4.42%，最高价达到3075元/吨，最低价为2931元/吨。全天交易日成交386359手，较上一交易日增 加93491手，全天交易日持仓275495手，较上 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. The price of bauxite provides some cost support. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows an upward - moving trend. It is recommended to conduct light - position trading and control risks [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum market has relatively stable supply. Short - term demand is affected by the off - season, but long - term demand is expected to improve. The option market sentiment is bullish. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a potential downward trend. It is suggested to conduct light - position short - term long trading at low prices and control risks [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with continuous inventory accumulation. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a weakening upward trend. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading at low prices and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,635 yuan/ton, with a flat change. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote is 2,602 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.93, down 0.01 [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,071 yuan/ton, up 126 yuan. The main contract position decreased by 4,814 hands [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 19,885 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The main contract position increased by 391 hands [2]. **Spot Market** - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,810 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous market AOO aluminum price is 20,720 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan. The basis of electrolytic aluminum is 175 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,080 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of alumina is 9 yuan/ton, down 126 yuan [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country is 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 215 yuan/ton, down 495 yuan [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Alumina**: The production volume is 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons. The demand is 720.02 million tons, up 26.32 million tons. The supply - demand balance is - 25.26 million tons, down 15.33 million tons. The import volume is 6.75 million tons, up 5.68 million tons, and the export volume is 21.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan is 16,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. China's import volume of aluminum scrap is 159,700.92 tons, down 30,651.64 tons, and the export volume is 72.44 tons, up 35.90 tons [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total production capacity is 4,520.20 million tons, up 2.00 million tons. The production volume is not mentioned separately. The import volume is 223,095.59 tons, down 27,381.21 tons, and the export volume is 32,094.07 tons, up 18,421.29 tons. The social inventory is 42.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The production volume is 576.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons. The export volume of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products is 55.00 million tons, up 3.00 million tons [2]. **Downstream and Application** - **Automobile**: The production volume is 264.20 million vehicles, up 3.80 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The national real estate prosperity index is 93.72, down 0.13 [2]. **Option Situation** The purchase - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.25, up 0.0183 compared with the previous period. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 9.69%, up 0.0056 [2]. **Industry News** - China's light industry has achieved growth in the first five months of this year. The manufacturing PMI in June has rebounded [2]. - Automobile sales in June showed different trends among different brands [2]. - The Fed Chairman mentioned the possibility of interest - rate cuts, and the US manufacturing PMI in June was still in the contraction range [2].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the copper and aluminum sectors, highlighting the ongoing value reassessment driven by interest rate cut expectations and inflows from insurance capital [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Interest Rate Impact**: Enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts are expected to lead to a resonance of value and cyclical capital inflows in the copper and aluminum sectors, improving marginal pricing power [3][4]. - **Supply Constraints**: The copper supply side remains tight, with a projected increase of only 370,000 tons in 2025, significantly lower than previous forecasts. This includes reductions from major mines, exacerbated by U.S. investigations affecting global inventory movements [6][7]. - **Valuation Levels**: The copper sector is currently valued below historical averages, with companies like Zijin Mining showing recovery from lows but still reflecting market concerns about demand and macroeconomic expectations [9][10]. - **Aluminum Sector Attributes**: The aluminum sector is characterized by high dividends and low valuations, with leading companies like Hongqiao seeing gradual increases in valuation centers. The sector's overall PB and PE ratios are low, with high dividend yields indicating strong long-term growth potential [13][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Opportunities**: Recommended companies for investment include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with a focus on undervalued stocks in the Hong Kong market. Other notable mentions include China Nonferrous Mining, Minmetals Resources, and China Gold International, which are expected to see significant volume increases [12][17]. - **Market Trends**: The copper and aluminum markets are in a stable rebound phase, with strong demand resilience despite short-term fluctuations in solar photovoltaic orders. Long-term aluminum demand growth is projected to outpace that of copper and steel [15][16]. - **Insurance Capital Inflows**: Insurance capital is projected to flow into the copper and aluminum sectors, with estimates of annual inflows around 700 to 800 billion, indicating strong confidence in price stability [5][8]. Conclusion - The copper and aluminum sectors present significant investment opportunities due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, supply constraints, and attractive valuations. Investors are encouraged to focus on long-term growth potential while being mindful of short-term market fluctuations.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is influenced by the balance between macro - expectations and off - season effects, and is expected to move in a volatile manner. For alumina, the fundamentals show an oversupply and stable demand situation, with stable bauxite prices providing some cost support. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is relatively stable, demand is affected by the season in the short - term but is expected to improve in the long - term, and macro sentiment dominates the market changes. The recommended strategy is to conduct light - position volatile trading for both the main contracts of Shanghai aluminum and alumina, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with continuous accumulation of industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct light - position volatile trading for the main casting aluminum contract, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - Given that the aluminum price is expected to move in a volatile manner in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [74]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly with a weekly increase of 0.56%, closing at 20,580 yuan/ton; alumina rebounded from a low level with a weekly increase of 3.32%, closing at 2,986 yuan/ton. Alumina's fundamentals are in a stage of oversupply and stable demand, and bauxite price stability provides cost support. Electrolytic aluminum's supply is relatively stable, short - term demand is affected by the season, and long - term demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to conduct light - position volatile trading for both [6]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The main casting aluminum contract fluctuated strongly with a weekly increase of 0.76%, closing at 19,790 yuan/ton. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to conduct light - position volatile trading [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of June 27, 2025, Shanghai aluminum's closing price was 20,780 yuan/ton, up 1.54% from June 20; LME aluminum's closing price was 2,585 US dollars/ton, up 2.36% from June 20; the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.97, up 0.13 from June 20. Alumina's futures price was 3,075 yuan/ton, up 2.57% from June 20; the main casting aluminum alloy's closing price was 19,790 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from June 20 [11][12][15]. - **Position Changes**: As of June 27, 2025, Shanghai aluminum's open interest was 670,796 lots, up 3.66% from June 20; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 24,530 lots from June 20 [18]. - **Price Spread Changes**: As of June 27, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan/ton from June 20; the copper - aluminum futures price spread was 59,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,815 yuan/ton from June 20 [23]. - **Spot Price Changes**: As of June 27, 2025, the average alumina price in Henan was 3,090 yuan/ton, down 2.52% from June 20; in Shanxi, it was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 2.53% from June 20; in Guiyang, it was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 2.53% from June 20. The national average price of casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from June 20. The A00 aluminum ingot's spot price was 20,940 yuan/ton, up 1.16% from June 20, with a spot premium of 80 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week [26][29]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, LME's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 336,900 tons, down 2.33% from June 19; as of June 27, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 94,290 tons, down 9.76% from last week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 424,000 tons, up 2.66% from June 19. As of June 27, 2025, the total registered warrants of electrolytic aluminum in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 34,390 tons, down 32.74% from June 20; as of June 26, 2025, LME's total registered electrolytic aluminum warrants were 322,850 tons, up 0.33% from June 19 [33]. - **Bauxite**: In May 2025, alumina production was 7.488 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; from January to May, the cumulative alumina production was 37.401 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. The current inventory of nine domestic bauxite ports is 24.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons [37]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 16,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. In May 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 159,700.92 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%; the export volume was 72.44 tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [43]. - **Alumina**: In May 2025, alumina production was 7.488 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; from January to May, the cumulative alumina production was 37.401 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In May 2025, the alumina import volume was 67,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 530.46%, a year - on - year decrease of 26.27%; the export volume was 210,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 110%. From January to May, the cumulative alumina import was 167,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.45% [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In May 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.828 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; from January to May, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 18.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In May 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.139 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%; the total capacity was 45.202 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04%, a year - on - year increase of 0.81%; the operating rate was 97.65%, an increase of 0.05% from last month, a decrease of 1.75% from the same period last year [53]. - **Aluminum Products**: In May 2025, the aluminum product output was 5.762 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%; from January to May, the cumulative aluminum product output was 26.831 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In May 2025, the aluminum product import volume was 350,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7%; the export volume was 550,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. From January to May, the aluminum product import volume was 1.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; the export volume was 2.43 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [57]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: In May 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy was 616,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.43%. In May 2025, the newly built capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.271 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0%, a year - on - year increase of 20.29% [60]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In May 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%; from January to May, the cumulative aluminum alloy production was 7.405 million tons. In May 2025, the aluminum alloy import volume was 97,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.12%; the export volume was 24,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.32%. From January to May, the aluminum alloy import volume was 464,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.41%; the export volume was 94,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.44% [63]. - **Real Estate**: In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from last month, an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. From January to May 2024, the newly started housing area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%; the completed housing area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94% [66]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to May 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year. In May 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%; China's automobile production was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% [69]. 4. Options Market Analysis - Given that the future aluminum price is expected to move in a volatile manner, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [74].