东鹏饮料（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 605499） 公司点评 H 股发行更近一步，重申三大逻辑 ——东鹏饮料事件点评 | 投资评级：买入（维 [Table_Rank] 持） | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-12-02 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 266.09 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低 | 338.92/208.80 | | （元） | | | 总股本（百万股） | 520 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 520 | | 流通股比例（%） | 100.00 | | 总市值（亿元） | 1,384 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 1,384 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -19% 2% 23% 44% 65% 12/24 3/25 6/25 9/25 12/25 东鹏饮料 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 分析师：韦香怡 执业证书号：S0010525060001 邮箱：weixi ...

报告导读： 中国股市进入击球区， 2025 年 12 月 -2026 年 2 月是中国政策、流动性、 基本面向上共振的窗口期。布出先手棋，增持中国市场，做多跨年行情。看好科技 / 券商 / 消费。 市场风险已大幅释放，中国股市进入击球区。 与当下谨慎共识不同的是，国泰海通策略坚决看好中国市场前景，股指进入击球区： 1 ）市场调整的时间和空 间已与历次牛市主线回调相当，恐慌抛售杀出交易风险释放。 2 ）市场对年末经济工作会议讨论不多，考虑眼下走弱的增长现实和十五五开年经济增速的重 要性，政策窗口期临近市场有望建立新预期。 3 ）中金公司合并标志资本市场改革加快纵深， 11 月 21 日 16 只硬科技 ETF 迅速获批隐含监管层稳定市场 的决心与行动部署。机会总在恐慌中出现，我们认为，中国股市将逐步企稳与展开跨年攻势，上升的空间还很大，眼下是增持的良机。 中国资本市场处于大发展的周期，股指向上还有很大空间。 过去造成股市估值折价的因素已消解（担忧中美冲突 / 经济能见度下降 / 资产负债收缩）， 2025 年以来对外更自信 / 对内更稳定、尾部风险下降 / 人民币资产逐步企稳，意味着中国资本市场处于估值回升和大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving perspectives on growth and value investing, highlighting the need to reassess traditional investment principles in light of modern economic realities and the success of high-growth companies [5][6][25]. Group 1: Growth vs. Value Investing - James Anderson acknowledges a widening divide between growth and value investing, suggesting that traditional value metrics may not suffice in a changing economic landscape dominated by tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon [7][20]. - Despite the differences, Anderson emphasizes that both growth and value investing share common principles, such as the importance of honest long-term cash flow estimation and risk management [8][25]. - The article references the historical context of growth investing, noting a lack of comprehensive literature supporting long-term growth strategies compared to the extensive documentation of value investing [12][14]. Group 2: Case Studies of Companies - Microsoft serves as a prime example of a company that has achieved significant long-term growth, with revenue increasing from $60 billion in 2008 to $110 billion in 2018, showcasing a compound annual growth rate of 24% [22]. - Google, now Alphabet, also illustrates the potential for sustained growth, with revenue rising from $21.8 billion in 2008 to $136.8 billion in 2018 [23]. - The article contrasts Coca-Cola's stagnation in stock value over the past 20 years with Facebook's growth trajectory, suggesting that Facebook may align more closely with value investing principles despite its high valuation metrics [82][88]. Group 3: Economic Structural Changes - The article posits that the current economic environment is undergoing profound changes, necessitating a reevaluation of investment strategies that account for systemic transformations rather than relying solely on historical performance [44][46]. - It highlights the shift from asset-heavy to knowledge-based economies, where companies like Facebook and Google thrive due to network effects and scale advantages [71][73]. - The discussion includes the implications of these changes for future investment returns, suggesting that traditional metrics may not adequately capture the potential of companies operating in rapidly evolving sectors [41][60]. Group 4: Industry Examples - The automotive industry is examined, with General Motors and BMW representing traditional value stocks facing challenges, while Ferrari exemplifies a company achieving high margins and cash flow despite low sales volume [100][104][107]. - The article notes that the automotive sector is experiencing significant disruption, particularly with the rise of electric vehicles and changing consumer preferences, which complicates traditional valuation methods [96][98]. - The contrasting performance of companies within the automotive sector illustrates the broader theme of how different business models and market positions can lead to varying investment outcomes [100][106].

在王老吉兰州生产基地走访时，记者观察到，智能化车间内自动化生产线正有序运转，从投料、灌注、 卷封、高温杀菌……各环节紧密衔接，构成一个高效协同的系统。而在成品区内，机械臂以远超人工的 效率完成自动码垛入库，一箱箱红色王老吉整齐堆叠，准备发向市场。 这些自动化景象仅仅是个开始。"我们现在正在打造国家级的'黑灯工厂'。"王老吉兰州生产基地相关人 士对记者透露。按照王老吉大健康公司董事长陈昆南在投产仪式上的表述："我们有条件、有信心、有 决心，在未来几年把兰州基地创建成国家级绿色工厂和国家级智能制造示范工厂。" 兰州生产基地是王老吉投产的第四座自有生产基地，此前其已在雅安、梅州、广州布子。记者了解到， 兰州项目总投资3.5亿元，占地面积约100亩，配备高度自动化的灌装生产线1条，投产后年产能约650万 标箱，预计带动当地就业超百人，未来还将启动第二条生产线。 陈昆南表示，王老吉将以兰州工厂竣工投产为新的发展契机，重点推进三方面战略：扎根西北服务全 国、产业协同赋能特色、深化合作共创共赢。"我们将依托兰州独特的资源优势和区位优势，进一步筑 牢王老吉供应链网络，让'兰州制造'的王老吉，更好地满足西北乃至全国消费者的需求 ...

近日，香港老牌饮料企业维他奶国际集团有限公司（00345.HK，简称"维他奶"）公布了2025/26财年中期业绩报告。 报告显示，截至2025年9月30日的六个月内，维他奶整体收入为32.27亿港元，较去年同期的34.43亿港元下降6%，而股权持有人应占溢利则微增1%至1.72亿 港元。 中国内地作为维他奶最大的市场，本期收入为17.78亿港元，同比下滑9%，成为拖累集团整体收入表现的主要原因。业绩下滑主要源于传统零售渠道表现疲 弱。尽管全渠道业务呈现稳健增长态势，连锁零食店等新兴渠道贡献了增量，但仍未能完全抵消传统渠道下滑带来的影响。 不过，台风导致上课天数减少影响了维他天地业务，澳门零售市场疲软致使销量下滑，以及美国关税政策频繁调整对北美出口业务的冲击，都拖累了香港业 务整体表现。 海外市场方面，澳洲及新西兰业务实现强势复苏，以当地货币计算销售额同比增长5%，核心平台市场份额同步提升，不过经营亏损的问题仍未得到彻底解 决。 公开资料显示，维他奶由罗桂祥于1940年在中国香港创立，历经80多年风雨，已成为一家在约40个市场运营的跨国企业。然而，这家老牌企业正面临市场环 境的深刻变化。在豆奶领域，蒙牛、伊利、 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of youth-oriented marketing for brands, particularly in resonating with Generation Z, which is becoming the main consumer force. Brands that align deeply with the values, lifestyles, and consumption scenarios of this demographic can maintain relevance and appeal [1][2]. Group 1: Youthful Marketing Strategies - Coca-Cola's approach to youth marketing transcends superficial trends, focusing instead on understanding cultural nuances and creating deep emotional connections through co-creation and scene-building [2][9]. - The "City Cans" series exemplifies Coca-Cola's strategy of integrating local cultural elements into product design, fostering a sense of belonging among young consumers and encouraging organic sharing [2][4]. - The brand's collaboration with "Honor of Kings" in 2025 highlights its ability to merge gaming and beverage experiences, creating a vibrant emotional connection with young consumers [6][9]. Group 2: Long-term Value and Brand Identity - Coca-Cola maintains its core value of "happiness," establishing long-term connections with consumers through consistent content and experiences that resonate with their emotions [10][12]. - The brand's marketing campaigns, such as "Open Happiness" and "Taste the Feeling," reflect a commitment to delivering universal emotional values, reinforcing consumer loyalty and habitual purchasing [10][12]. Group 3: Balancing Tradition and Innovation - Coca-Cola faces the challenge of preserving its classic identity while appealing to new generations, successfully blending tradition with modernity [13][18]. - The introduction of new product lines, such as sugar-free options and mini cans, addresses the diverse health and personalization demands of younger consumers [15][18]. - Collaborations with brands like NIO and CONVERSE showcase Coca-Cola's innovative marketing strategies that merge classic narratives with contemporary trends, creating fresh engagement opportunities [15][18].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the resignation of Pan Jiajie from Wahaha Group, where he served as Executive Vice President, and his new role as Senior Vice President at Guming Supply Chain [1][2] - Pan Jiajie is now responsible for the New Business Incubation Department, Guoru, and Mingxingpei at Guming [2] - Pan Jiajie has extensive experience in the food and beverage industry, having worked for many years at Wahaha Group [4] Group 2 - The personnel appointment notice indicates that Pan Jiajie officially transitioned to Guming on November 28, 2025 [2] - As of 2023, Pan Jiajie was still listed as Executive Vice President of Wahaha Group, and he is set to exit the board on August 31, 2024 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on the development of plant-based beverages, driven by market demand, and is committed to continuous product research and development to provide consumers with reliable options in this category [1] Group 1 - The company has articulated a strategic focus on "leading the trend in plant-based beverage development" [1] - The company emphasizes a market-oriented approach in its product development efforts [1] - The company aims to enhance consumer trust by offering a wider range of reliable plant-based beverages [1]

Core Insights - A total of 21 buy ratings were issued by institutions today, covering 20 stocks, with Guizhou Moutai receiving the highest attention with two buy ratings [1][2] - Among the rated stocks, 11 provided future target prices, with 7 stocks showing an upside potential exceeding 20%, led by Guizhou Moutai with a target price of 2600.00 CNY, indicating a potential increase of 79.56% [1][2] - The average increase for stocks with buy ratings today was 0.82%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, with notable gainers including Hu Guang Co., Sophia, and Shenzhou Digital [1][2] Company Summaries - Guizhou Moutai received a strong buy rating from Huachuang Securities with a target price of 2600.00 CNY, compared to the latest closing price of 1448.00 CNY [2] - Dongpeng Beverage also received a strong buy rating from Huachuang Securities with a target price of 340.00 CNY, latest closing at 269.03 CNY [2] - Shenzhou Digital was rated as "Increase" by Guotai Junan with a target price of 55.97 CNY, latest closing at 41.27 CNY [2] - Hu Guang Co. was rated as "Strong Buy" by Huachuang Securities with a target price of 37.90 CNY, latest closing at 31.30 CNY [2] - Other notable stocks include Jerry Shares, which was rated "Increase" with a target price of 73.20 CNY, latest closing at 62.07 CNY [2] Industry Insights - The basic chemical industry was the most favored, with stocks like Huhua Co. and Chuanheng Co. receiving buy ratings [2] - The computer and automotive industries also attracted attention, with two stocks each receiving buy ratings [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][15]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a recovery in consumer demand as the year-end approaches, with a positive outlook for 2026 [3][10]. - The report highlights a differentiation in the performance of various sub-sectors, with beverages outperforming food and alcoholic beverages [2][10]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in leading companies within the sector, particularly those with strong growth potential and market positioning [3][10][15]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector has shown a slight increase of 0.03% this week, with A-shares remaining flat and H-shares up by 0.47% [1]. - The top performers in the sector include Hai Xin Food, Jia Long Co., and Yan Tang Dairy, with significant weekly gains [1]. 2. Sub-sector Analysis - **Alcoholic Beverages**: The report indicates that the liquor sector is in a bottoming phase, with premium brands like Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao expected to gain market share [2][10]. - **Beverages**: The beverage sector is experiencing stable demand recovery, with leading companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage recommended for investment [2][14]. - **Food**: The snack segment is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in konjac products, with companies like Wei Long and Yan Jin Pu Zi recommended [2][11]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The recommended investment portfolio includes Moutai, Baba Foods, Dongpeng Beverage, Wei Long, and Luzhou Laojiao, reflecting a diverse range of opportunities across the sector [3][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth trajectories, particularly in the context of changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [2][10][15]. 4. Earnings Forecasts - Earnings forecasts for key companies indicate a positive growth trajectory, with Moutai expected to achieve revenues of approximately 183.5 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4][15]. - Other companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Baba Foods are also projected to see significant revenue growth, driven by market expansion and product innovation [15][17].