Report Industry Investment Ratings - SDIC FUTURES provides operation ratings for various commodities on January 13, 2026. The ratings are as follows: Threaded steel (★★★), Hot-rolled steel (★★★), Iron ore (★★★), Coke (★☆☆), Coking coal (★☆☆), Silicon manganese (★★☆), Silicon iron (★★☆) [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of range-bound oscillation. The demand for downstream industries is weak, and the export remains high. The market sentiment is cautious, and the rebound momentum is insufficient, but there is still support below [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is weak, and the winter - storage replenishment expectation still exists. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of increased volatility at high levels [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be in a strong - oscillation state. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level in the off - season, and the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [4][6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are recommended to buy on dips. The silicon manganese has a structural problem in port inventory, and the silicon iron is affected by relevant policies and has certain demand resilience [7][8] Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel futures market oscillates. In the off - season, the apparent demand for threaded steel declines, and the inventory accumulates. The demand for hot - rolled steel falls, and the inventory is slowly depleted. The steel mill's profit is marginally repaired, and the blast furnace is gradually restarted. The overall domestic demand is weak, and the export remains high. The market sentiment is cautious, and the range - bound oscillation pattern may continue [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillates. The global shipment decreases seasonally, the domestic arrival volume increases, and the port inventory accumulates. The terminal demand is weak in the off - season, the iron - water production is at the bottom, and it is difficult to resume production significantly in the short term. The steel mill's imported ore inventory increases, and the winter - storage replenishment expectation exists. The market sentiment is volatile, and the short - term oscillation is expected [3] Coke - The coke price oscillates downward during the day. The transaction price rises sporadically, the coking profit is average, and the daily output slightly increases. The inventory hardly changes. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level, and the price is likely to be in a strong - oscillation state [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillates downward during the day. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 1520 vehicles. The coking coal mine output slightly decreases, and the spot auction transaction improves. The total inventory increases significantly. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level, and the price is likely to be in a strong - oscillation state [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price oscillates. Driven by the futures rebound, the manganese ore spot price rises. There is a structural problem in the manganese ore port inventory. The iron - water production decreases seasonally, the weekly output of silicon manganese slightly decreases, and the inventory slightly decreases. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price oscillates. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market expects a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The iron - water production rebounds, the export demand decreases, and the secondary demand increases marginally. The supply decreases significantly, and the inventory slightly decreases. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spring market of stock index futures is established, and the market is expected to continue rising, with the CSI 500 index potentially being the dominant variety among the four major indices [20][22]. - The sentiment in the bond market of treasury bond futures may ease, and there may be short - term trading opportunities in the medium - and long - term contracts [23][24]. - For agricultural products, the overall supply of protein meals is sufficient and the market is under pressure; the international sugar price fluctuates and declines while the domestic sugar price fluctuates slightly; the situation of the oil and fat sector depends on the MPOB report; other agricultural products also have their own market characteristics and trends [26][28][31]. - In the ferrous metal sector, steel prices continue to fluctuate, coking coal and coke prices are driven by funds and sentiment, iron ore prices are treated bearishly at high levels, and ferroalloy prices fluctuate strongly due to cost factors [60][62][65][69]. - For non - ferrous metals, precious metals such as gold and silver rise strongly due to geopolitical risks and non - farm data; other non - ferrous metals also have their own market dynamics and trends affected by various factors [72][73][75][78]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the price of crude oil rebounds due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East; other energy and chemical products also show different market trends affected by supply, demand, cost, and geopolitical factors [121][123][127][133]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Investment Logic: Since December 16, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen continuously, and the market has accelerated its rise in 2026. Economic data indicates an economic recovery, and the narrowing of the basis of stock index futures reflects investors' confidence. The market is expected to continue rising, and the CSI 500 index may be the dominant variety [20][21][22]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on IC and IM on dips; conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2606 and short ETF; use bull spreads for options [22]. Treasury Bond Futures - Logic Analysis: Although the overall repair trend of CPI and PPI continues, there are still structural problems. The bond market has been weak recently, but there may be short - term trading opportunities in medium - and long - term contracts [23][24]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on dips on a short - term basis; wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meals - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the cost pressure of soybeans is obvious, and the export prospects are not optimistic. Domestically, the subsequent supply of soybeans may decline, and the spot may be supported. The overall trend of meal products is expected to be volatile [27]. - Strategy Suggestion: Adopt a bearish approach for unilateral trading; wait and see for arbitrage; use a short straddle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the sugar price may be affected by the production in the Northern Hemisphere. Domestically, the high processing cost and the bottom - building trend of the external market provide support, but there is also sales pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate [30]. - Trading Strategy: The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. For the domestic sugar price, consider going long at the lower end of the range and shorting at the upper end; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options [30][31]. Oil and Fat Sector - Logic Analysis: Recently, the oil and fat market has been affected by various factors and fluctuates. The inventory of the three major domestic oils is gradually decreasing, and the palm oil in Malaysia is expected to reduce production and inventory. The market situation is still uncertain [35]. - Trading Strategy: The oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate in the short term with increased volatility; wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Ferrous Metals Steel - Logic Analysis: The steel market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, demand, and raw material prices. The overall trend is to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - news and policy changes [61]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; short the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread; wait and see for options [62]. Coking Coal and Coke - Logic Analysis: The recent rise in coking coal prices is mainly driven by funds and sentiment. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [64]. - Strategy Suggestion: Trade in a wide - range shock on a short - term basis; wait and see for arbitrage and options [65]. Iron Ore - Logic Analysis: The price of iron ore is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and funds. The supply is loose, and the domestic demand is expected to decline in the medium term. The price is treated bearishly at high levels [66][68]. - Strategy Suggestion: Go short lightly at high levels; wait and see for arbitrage and options [69]. Ferroalloys - Logic Analysis: For ferrosilicon, the supply may shrink in the future, and the demand and cost are expected to increase. For ferromanganese - silicon, the supply is stable, and the demand and cost also support the price. The overall price fluctuates strongly [70][71]. - Strategy Suggestion: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to the improvement of supply - demand and cost factors; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddles for options [71]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Logic Analysis: The non - farm data is mixed, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East intensify the safe - haven sentiment. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain strong in the short term [73]. - Trading Strategy: Enter the market on dips based on the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage and options [75]. Platinum and Palladium - Logic Analysis: The macro - environment is generally tight, and the result of the 232 investigation is the focus. Platinum has a stronger upward drive than palladium. The market is waiting for the official news of the investigation [75][76]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on platinum on dips; be cautious when going long on palladium before the 232 investigation result is announced; wait and see for arbitrage and options [78]. Copper - Logic Analysis: The government's QE policy may lead to more actual monetary easing. In the short term, the domestic consumption is stagnant, but the LME inventory is decreasing. In the long term, the supply of copper mines is tight, and the consumption is growing. The price fluctuates strongly in the short term but maintains an upward trend [79]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the long positions entered at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton; wait and see for arbitrage and options [80]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Logic Analysis: The geopolitical risks in the Middle East drive the oil price to rebound. The oil price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [122][123]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event and trade in a wide - range shock; the domestic gasoline is strong, and the diesel is weak, and the oil futures spread is strong; wait and see for options [123]. Asphalt - Logic Analysis: The cost provides support, but the supply - demand is weak. The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [124][125]. - Trading Strategy: The situation is not provided in the report. Fuel Oil - Logic Analysis: Geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and the price fluctuates strongly. The high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak in the first quarter, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has a short - term upward trend [127][129]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a short - term shock with caution; pay attention to the FU59 positive spread arbitrage opportunity; wait and see for options [129]. Natural Gas - Logic Analysis: The international LNG price fluctuates at a low level. In the short term, the price is supported by cold weather, but in the long term, the supply is excessive. The HH price in the US is affected by weather and demand [130][131][132]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the short positions of TTF and JKM in the third quarter; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options on TTF or JKM [132]. LPG - Logic Analysis: The geopolitical situation leads to a short - term premium, but the fundamental supply - demand does not support continuous price increases. The price is expected to be under pressure in the long term [133][135]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event and be bearish on the far - month contracts in the medium - and long - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [135]. PX & PTA - Logic Analysis: The downstream polyester production cuts increase, but the geopolitical disturbances strengthen the cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [135][136]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock - upward trend; conduct positive spread arbitrage of PX & PTA 3 and 5 contracts; wait and see for options [137]. BZ & EB - Logic Analysis: The inventory of pure benzene continues to increase, and the supply - demand of styrene is relatively balanced. The price of styrene is mainly affected by the cost [139][140]. - Strategy Suggestion: The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term; short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage; wait and see for options [140]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic Analysis: The supply may be adjusted, and the downstream polyester production cuts increase. The price has limited upward space and is expected to fluctuate weakly [142][144]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a weak - shock trend; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [144]. Short Fiber - Logic Analysis: The procurement sentiment is cautious, and the processing fee is under pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [145]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock - upward trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [146]. Bottle Chip - Logic Analysis: Some bottle chip production devices are planned for maintenance, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the raw material cost [147][148]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock - upward trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [149]. Propylene - Logic Analysis: The supply improvement is limited, and the downstream factory procurement is active. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [150][152]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a short - term shock - upward trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [152]. Plastic PP - Logic Analysis: The PE and PP production has marginal cuts. The L 2605 contract can hold long positions, and the PP 2605 contract needs to pay attention to the pressure level [153][154]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the long positions of the L 2605 contract and set the stop - loss at 6600 points; wait and see for the PP 2605 contract and pay attention to the pressure at 6520 points; wait and see for arbitrage; sell and hold the PP2605 put 6100 contract and set the stop - loss at 58.0 points [154]. Caustic Soda - Logic Analysis: The market sentiment improves, but the supply - demand contradiction continues. The price is expected to fluctuate [155][156]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [157]. PVC - Logic Analysis: The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand is weak. The cost provides support, and the export tax - refund policy has a great impact [158][160]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; wait and see for arbitrage and options [160]. Soda Ash - Logic Analysis: The futures price is strong this week, but the high inventory pressure needs to be tested. The price may fluctuate widely in the short term [160][161][164]. - Trading Strategy: Do not operate against the sentiment, wait and see in the long term and short at an appropriate time; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options at a high level in the far - month [164]. Glass - Logic Analysis: The futures price fluctuates widely this week. The cold - repair of production lines is concentrated, and the inventory shows a downward trend. The price may fluctuate widely in the short term [165][166][168]. - Trading Strategy: Do not operate against the sentiment, wait and see in the long term and short at an appropriate time; wait and see for arbitrage and options [168]. Methanol - Logic Analysis: The international device operation rate is low, the supply in China is loose, and the Middle East situation provides support [169]. - Trading Strategy: Avoid short positions temporarily and go long in the short term; pay attention to the 59 positive spread arbitrage; sell put options on dips [170]. Urea - Logic Analysis: The domestic production is at a high level, the international market has an impact on sentiment, and the demand is affected by various factors. The price fluctuates widely [171][172]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; hedging enterprises can pay attention to hedging opportunities [173]. Pulp - Logic Analysis: The market supply exceeds demand. The supply is stable, and the demand support is limited. The price fluctuates widely at a high level [173][174][176]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; aggressive investors can short a small amount near the previous high; wait and see for arbitrage and options [177]. Log - Logic Analysis: The spot price rebounds slightly. The market is affected by factors such as arrival volume and inventory. Attention should be paid to the delivery situation in Chongqing and Yantai [177][178]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait and see; aggressive investors can arrange long positions in a small amount; pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse spread arbitrage; wait and see for options [180]. Offset Printing Paper - Logic Analysis: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The paper mill's price - holding intention is strong, but the valuation is low. It may fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term [181]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait and see; wait and see for arbitrage; sell the OP2602 - C - 4300 option [182][183]. Natural Rubber - Logic Analysis: The tire inventory accumulates for 5 consecutive weeks. The supply is affected by disasters, and the inventory situation of different varieties is different [184][185][186]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the short positions of the RU 05 contract and set the stop - loss at 16135 points; wait and see for the NR 03 contract; hold the RU2605 - NR2605 spread and set the stop - loss at +2950 points; sell the RU2605 call 17000 contract and set the stop - loss at 391 points [186][188]. Butadiene Rubber - Logic Analysis: The tire inventory accumulates for 5 consecutive weeks. The warehouse receipt situation of BR is different, and the inventory of tires also accumulates [189][190]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for the BR 03 contract; hold the BR2603 - NR2603 spread and set the stop - loss at - 985 points; wait and see for options [190][191].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The raw materials are stronger than the finished products, and the steel mill profits continue to be compressed. The iron ore pricing is detached from supply - demand, with strong macro - support. The coal - coke supply - demand is subtly repaired, but contradictions are still accumulating. The ferroalloy market is affected by long - short sentiment, and the futures trading may return to the fundamentals [8][77][136][228]. - The macro - environment is generally favorable. The Central Economic Work Conference mentioned "anti - involution", and the special commentator of Qiushi magazine proposed to improve and stabilize the real estate market expectations [10][13]. - For iron ore, although the overseas supply is marginally weakening and the domestic demand is rebounding, the pricing is mainly affected by the upward macro - risk preference, and the ore price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [79]. - For coal - coke, due to event - driven and valuation repair, the supply - demand structure has subtle changes, and it will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The contradictions between supply and demand are still accumulating [139]. - For ferroalloys, the alloy prices first rose and then fell this week, with a slight decline in the price center. The cost side may be supported by ore and coal prices, and the futures may maintain an oscillating trend [230]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products - **Supply - demand and profit**: The supply - demand pattern of steel products is loose, but the cost supports the futures price rebound. The strong raw materials and weak finished products lead to the continuous compression of steel mill profits. The iron water production is expected to stop falling and then oscillate upwards, and attention should be paid to the hot - rolled coil inventory [10][14]. - **Rebar**: The basis and spread of rebar show a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The new - house sales remain at a low level, and the market confidence is still sluggish. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is healthy. The steel mill's resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the futures profit [21][26][32][37]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The basis and spread of hot - rolled coil also show a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The demand is flat, and the export order receipt decreases month - on - month. The inventory is high, and production reduction is needed to reduce inventory. The steel mill's resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the futures profit [42][48][49][53][55]. - **Variety spread and regional difference**: Analyzed the price spreads between different steel products (such as cold - hot spread, coil - rebar spread) and regional price differences [59][66]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The overseas iron ore shipments have declined from the high level at the beginning of the year, and there are also disturbances in the acceptance of Jinbuba and the pricing index of Rio Tinto and Fortescue. The supply of non - mainstream mines has some changes, and the domestic mines in the southwest region have significantly increased their production after the New Year [79][90][102]. - **Demand**: The downstream may show a restocking drive before the Spring Festival, and the iron water production has rebounded month - on - month. The substitution effect of scrap steel on iron ore is weakening [79][108]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore remains at a high level [112][115]. - **Price performance**: The main 05 - contract price of iron ore is still strong. The medium - grade iron ore prices are strong in the spot market [83][84]. 3.3 Coal - Coke - **Supply**: The domestic coal production has rapidly recovered, and the Mongolian coal imports are expected to decline in January due to the high port inventory [136]. - **Demand**: The iron water production has increased, and the downstream raw material procurement enthusiasm has improved, but the blast furnace resumption rhythm of steel mills still needs to be observed [137]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal at all levels has increased month - on - month, mainly in independent coking plants and ports [138]. - **Viewpoint**: The coal - coke market will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The contradictions between supply and demand are still accumulating, and investors are advised to try to go long at low prices [139]. 3.4 Ferroalloys (Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon) - **Market trend**: The prices of ferroalloys first rose and then fell this week, with a slight decline in the price center. The cost side may be supported by ore and coal prices, and the futures may maintain an oscillating trend [230]. - **Manganese silicon**: The production has decreased slightly month - on - month. The new round of steel procurement is about to start, and the steel mills may start the restocking rhythm. The manganese ore supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the port prices are firm [237][244][261]. - **Silicon iron**: The production has increased month - on - month. The steel procurement volume of a large factory in Hebei has increased month - on - month, and the raw material restocking rhythm may start. The non - steel demand has some changes, and the inventory has increased [274][279][287][289].

Core Viewpoint - December inflation maintains a steady upward trend, driven by low food price base, rising gold prices, and soaring global industrial metals, while domestic demand-related prices remain relatively stable [1][2] CPI Analysis - The contribution from food prices has decreased, while services have shown an increased contribution [2] - Food prices, including pork, contributed +0.21% to CPI, with other food items contributing +0.47% [8] - Core CPI remains at the seasonal upper limit, with a month-on-month increase of +0.2% and year-on-year stability [8] PPI Analysis - PPI shows a year-on-year decrease of -1.9%, but a month-on-month recovery to +0.2% [1][8] - Industrial prices are becoming more balanced across upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, with notable contributions from non-ferrous metals and stable performance in the black metal chain [8] - Non-ferrous metals continue to thrive under the global AI narrative, serving as a core driver for December PPI [8]

Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 9, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Variety Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [4] Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The prices of rebar (RB2605), hot-rolled coil (HC2605), coke (J2605), and coking coal (JM2605) are expected to be volatile and strong. The iron ore price (I2605) is expected to maintain resilience before the Spring Festival [6][7][8][9][10][11]. Summary by Directory Black Variety Strategy Recommendations - **Single-Side Strategy** - RB2605 (price: 3144): Volatile and strong, influenced by re - inflation cycle, price depression, production increase, demand shrinkage, inventory change, and cost support [6]. - HC2605 (price: 3294): Volatile and strong, with similar influencing factors as RB2605 [6]. - J2605 (price: 1748): Volatile and strong, affected by coal production quota reduction in Indonesia, coal export tariff, price depression, inventory change, and supply - demand transition [6]. - JM2605 (price: 1195.5): Volatile and strong, with influencing factors similar to J2605 [6]. - I2605 (price: 814.5): Maintain resilience, due to shipping and arrival trends, demand improvement, inventory situation, and pre - Spring Festival replenishment demand [6][11]. - **Arbitrage Strategy** - For cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage, no clear trading directions were provided for RB05 - 07, J05 - 09, JM05 - 09, I05 - 09, RB/I, HC - RB, J/JM [6]. Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: On January 9, the spot prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil markets mainly increased slightly [12]. - **Blast Furnace and Crude Steel**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased for three consecutive weeks, while the average daily crude steel output of key large and medium - sized enterprises decreased in late December [12]. - **Hot Metal and Electric Furnace**: The national daily average hot metal output increased for three consecutive weeks, and the capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased significantly for two consecutive weeks [15]. - **Output and Inventory of Five Steel Products**: The weekly output of rebar and hot - rolled coil of major steel mills increased, the rebar inventory in major steel mills increased, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased [15]. - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in some cities increased [19]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national real estate development investment decreased year - on - year from January to November last year, while the output of automobiles, metal - cutting machine tools, and some home appliances increased [19]. - **Apparent Consumption and Disk Profit**: The apparent consumption of rebar decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The disk profit of rebar 2605 contract showed an obvious widening of the loss [24]. - **Spot Tons of Steel Gross Profit**: The spot tons of steel gross profit of long - process steel mills' rebar showed an expansion of the loss, and that of short - process steel mills decreased [28]. Conclusions and Recommendations - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to be volatile and strong, and a strategy of buying on dips for hedging or investment can be tried [32]. - **Basis**: The rebar basis is expected to narrow with fluctuations, ranging from 90 to 190 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil basis is expected to fluctuate within the range of - 40 to 30 yuan/ton [33][35]. Coke and Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: The spot prices of major coke markets decreased, and the prices of major coking coal markets decreased steadily for three consecutive weeks [36]. - **Output and Capacity Utilization**: The daily average coke output and capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel enterprises increased [36]. - **Inventory and Profit**: The coke inventory at ports and steel enterprises increased, while that at independent coking plants decreased. The average profit of independent coking enterprises showed a continuous three - week loss [39]. - **Mine Output,开工率, and Inventory**: The daily average refined coal output and the opening rate of 523 sample mines increased, and the refined coal and raw coal inventories increased [40]. - **Import and Inventory of Coking Coal**: The import of coking coal from January to November last year decreased. The port inventory of coking coal decreased slightly, the inventory of independent coking plants increased, and that of steel enterprises decreased [44]. - **Output of Raw Coal and Coke**: The output of raw coal and coke from January to November last year increased year - on - year [44]. Conclusions and Recommendations - Coke and coking coal are expected to continue to be volatile and strong, with a short - term pull - back for rhythm adjustment. A strategy of buying on dips for hedging or investment can be tried [48][49]. Iron Ore Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Spread**: The 62% Platts iron ore index and the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port increased. The spreads between different ore grades changed [50]. - **Inventory and Port Clearance**: The inventory of 45 ports increased, the daily average port clearance decreased, the inventory available days of steel mills decreased, and the sintered powder ore inventory of sample steel mills decreased. Steel mills are expected to start pre - festival replenishment in mid - to late January [54]. - **Shipping and Arrival**: The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil decreased, and the arrival volume increased. The future shipping volume is expected to weaken, and the arrival volume is expected to first increase and then decrease [58][59]. - **Domestic Output and Capacity Utilization**: The domestic iron ore output from January to November 2025 decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mines increased. The national mine output is expected to continue to increase slightly [61]. - **Port Transaction Volume and Hot Metal Cost**: The 5 - day moving average of the main port iron ore transaction volume decreased, and the average tax - free hot metal cost of 64 sample steel mills decreased for three consecutive weeks [63]. - **Hot Metal Output, Blast Furnace Operation, and Capacity Utilization**: The daily average hot metal output, blast furnace capacity utilization rate, and blast furnace opening rate of 247 sample steel mills increased. The profitability of steel enterprises decreased [63]. - **Output and Inventory of Five Steel Products**: The actual weekly output of five steel products increased, the consumption decreased, the steel mill inventory and social inventory increased, and the total inventory increased [68]. - **Transportation Cost**: The main iron ore freight prices decreased, and the Baltic Dry Index and the Capesize freight index decreased [71]. Conclusions and Recommendations - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to maintain resilience before the Spring Festival. The supply side has pressure, but the demand side shows signs of improvement, and the pre - Spring Festival replenishment demand will boost the price [73]. - **Basis**: The basis of iron ore in Qingdao Port is expected to fluctuate within the range of 40 - 100 yuan/ton [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the black commodity market are rated as "Oscillating" [1] Core View of the Report - The black commodity market is currently in a state of oscillation, with different varieties showing different supply - demand situations and price trends. The cost factors and supply - demand relationships of each variety jointly affect their short - term price movements [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Steel Products (including rebar and hot - rolled coils)** - Rebar: The rebar futures price slightly declined, with the 2605 contract closing at 3168 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.6%. The spot price was stable, and the trading volume decreased. The supply increased, inventory turned from decreasing to increasing, and the apparent demand significantly declined. However, cost factors provided support, and it is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term [1] - Iron Ore: The futures price of the main contract i2605 decreased to 813 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.8%. The global shipping volume decreased, while the iron - making water output increased, and the port and steel mill inventories accumulated. The price is expected to oscillate due to the combination of long and short factors [1] - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price rose, with the 2605 contract closing at 1190 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 2.23%. The supply increased as mines resumed production, and the market sentiment improved. The demand was resilient, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Coke: The coke futures price declined, with the 2605 contract closing at 1765 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.45%. The spot price increased. The production of coke enterprises was relatively stable, and the demand from steel mills increased, but the consumption in the off - season limited the increase in iron - making water output. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5892 yuan/ton, down 1.77%. The market price was between 5650 - 5850 yuan/ton. The cost provided support, and the inventory was accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5668 yuan/ton, down 3.18%. The market price was about 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton. The supply was expected to decrease, the demand was supported during the steel procurement period, and the inventory was at a high level. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [3] Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: Different contracts of various varieties showed different spread changes. For example, the 5 - 10 spread of rebar was - 45.0, up 3.0; the 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 21.0, down 2.5 [4] - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For instance, the 05 contract basis of rebar was 152.0, up 19.0; the 05 contract basis of iron ore was 60.0, up 2.9 [4] - **Profit and Cross - variety Spreads**: The profit of rebar showed different trends, such as the rebar futures profit being - 98.9, up 9.8. The cross - variety spreads, like the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, were also provided [4] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts showed the historical price trends of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2021 to 2026 [6][10][12] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts presented the historical basis trends of the main contracts of various varieties [16][18][21] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts displayed the historical spread trends between different contracts of each variety [25][31][32] - **Cross - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts showed the historical spread trends between different varieties, such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread and the rebar to iron ore ratio [42][44][45] - **Rebar Profit**: Charts presented the historical profit trends of rebar, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][49][50] Black Research Team Members - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, Zhang Chunjie, etc., each with different professional backgrounds and expertise [52][53] Company Information - The company is located at No. 6, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [54]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel market has weak weekly data, with supply rising and demand seasonally weakening. The weakening basis is beneficial for cash-and-carry arbitrage entry, and short-term sentiment has more pricing power than industrial contradictions [2]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have large fluctuations due to changing market sentiment. Demand is poor and supply is excessive, and the risk of a decline under pressure in the future is relatively large [3]. - After a sharp rise, coking coal and coke have undergone adjustments. The market is in the off-season, and the subsequent trend mainly depends on whether there are sufficient "expectations" to attract funds. It is advisable to go long on dips, but caution is needed due to intensified fluctuations [5]. - Iron ore prices have fallen back after reaching the pressure level. The valuation is moderately high, and it is not recommended to chase long. It is advisable to wait and see [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On January 8, the closing prices of far-month and near-month contracts of various steel products and their changes are provided, including price, basis, spread, ratio, and profit data [1]. - The weekly data of steel is weak, with supply rising and demand seasonally weakening. The weakening basis is beneficial for cash-and-carry arbitrage entry, and short-term sentiment has more pricing power than industrial contradictions [2]. - It is recommended to participate in long positions with stop-loss, and conduct rolling operations for hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage or use option strategies to assist spot procurement [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Recently, market sentiment has been changeable, and the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have fluctuated greatly. Demand is poor, and the weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. Supply is excessive, and the pressure of supply overhang in the medium term remains [3]. - It is recommended that industrial customers hedge on rallies [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - On January 8, the closing prices of far-month and near-month contracts of coking coal and coke and their changes are provided, as well as spot price data [1]. - The spot market is active, but the downstream's willingness to accept high-priced Mongolian coal is not strong. After a sharp rise, the market has adjusted, and the market is in the off-season. It is advisable to go long on dips, but caution is needed due to intensified fluctuations [5]. - It is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have fallen back after reaching the pressure level. The valuation is moderately high, and it is not recommended to chase long. It is advisable to wait and see [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Valuation is high, and caution is advised when chasing long positions [2][4]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Market sentiment is causing disturbances, and the futures prices are experiencing wide fluctuations [2][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: There is a game between long and short positions on the futures market, and investors should be vigilant about position risks [2][12]. - Coke and coking coal: Events are fermenting, and the prices are fluctuating at high levels [2][16]. - Logs: The price is fluctuating repeatedly [2][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's closing price was 813 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.81%. The previous day's position was 636,674 lots, a decrease of 29,907 lots. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores mostly declined slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, slightly higher than November, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a weak bearish trend [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For RB2605, the previous day's closing price was 3,168 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.44%. For HC2605, it was 3,317 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.48%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price differences [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 8, steel union weekly data showed changes in production, total inventory, and apparent demand for rebar and hot-rolled coil. There were also data on steel social inventory, production of key steel enterprises, and relevant policies and import data [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in spot prices, futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price differences of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13][14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 8, there were price changes in different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions. In December 2025, Brazil's manganese ore exports decreased significantly [14][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For JM2605, the previous day's closing price was 1,190 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 2.2%. For J2605, it was 1,765 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.5%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price differences [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 7, there were CCI metallurgical coal index data. This week, the daily production of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines increased, and there were changes in the number of shutdown and复产 mines [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price differences of different log futures contracts. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, slightly higher than November, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index continues to show a differentiated pattern, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures expected to remain strong [19][20]. - The narrative of "re - inflation" in the domestic bond market has slightly changed, and there may be short - term long - trading opportunities in the bond market [23]. - In the agricultural products market, protein meal is expected to fluctuate, sugar prices are likely to oscillate, and the overall trend of the oil and fat sector is to move in a range [27][30][34]. - In the black metal market, steel prices will continue to oscillate, the coking coal and coke market should be cautious about callback risks, and iron ore prices are considered bearish at high levels [56][59][63]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals are experiencing wide - range fluctuations, copper prices are expected to rise in the long - term with short - term fluctuations, and the prices of other non - ferrous metals have their own characteristics and trends [69][78]. - In the shipping sector, the peak of spot freight rates for container shipping is gradually being established, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices [113]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, asphalt prices will oscillate at high levels, and the prices of other energy and chemical products also have their own trends [118][123]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: The stock index continues to be differentiated. The small - cap index performs prominently, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures are expected to maintain a strong trend [19][20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on IC and IM on dips; wait for the discount to widen for the cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF; use a bull spread for options [20][21]. Bond Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: The narrative of "re - inflation" in the domestic bond market has slightly changed. Although there are factors restricting the strengthening of the bond market, there may be short - term long - trading opportunities [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on TF and T contracts on dips; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Core Viewpoint**: There is still supply pressure, and the overall price of the contract has declined. It is expected to move in a range [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; narrow the MRM spread for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - **Core Viewpoint**: Commodity price fluctuations have increased, and both domestic and international sugar prices are oscillating. International sugar prices are expected to bottom - out and move in a range in the short term, while domestic sugar prices will face pressure near the upper oscillation platform [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: International sugar prices are expected to bottom - out and move in a range in the short term, and domestic sugar prices will oscillate. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell put options for options [31]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Core Viewpoint**: The overall trend is to move in a range. The inventory of palm oil is at a relatively high level, the inventory of soybean oil is gradually decreasing, and rapeseed oil is still greatly affected by policies [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the oil and fat market will move in a range with increased volatility. For palm oil, consider shorting at the upper edge of the range after a rebound, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the oil and fat market. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [34][35]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Core Viewpoint**: Wheat and corn are continuously being auctioned, and the spot price is stable. The U.S. corn price is at the bottom and oscillating, and the domestic corn price will face pressure in the later stage [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the foreign market, go long on the 03 corn contract on dips and stay on the sidelines for the 07 corn contract. Expand the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [38]. Live Pigs - **Core Viewpoint**: There is still supply pressure, and the spot price is oscillating. The overall inventory of live pigs is relatively high, and the price is expected to face pressure [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [40]. Peanuts - **Core Viewpoint**: The spot price of peanuts is stable, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply of peanut kernels for oil is abundant, but the price is supported by factors such as cost [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 05 peanut contract is oscillating at the bottom. Go long on dips without chasing the rise. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option for options [43][44]. Eggs - **Core Viewpoint**: Demand has improved, and the egg price has increased steadily. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the demand is average in the short term. The near - month contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the May contract can be considered for long - position building on dips [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: The February contract is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term. Consider going long on the May contract on dips. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - **Core Viewpoint**: The cold - storage inventory is low, and the fruit price is oscillating at a high level. The cost of apple warehouse receipts is high, and the demand is acceptable. If the demand remains normal, the May contract price is likely to rise [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the long position of the May contract and go short on the October contract on rallies. Long the May contract and short the October contract for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [51]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Core Viewpoint**: The planting area in the new year is expected to decline, and the cotton price is oscillating strongly. The sales progress of cotton is fast, and there are positive factors such as the expected expansion of textile factory capacity in Xinjiang [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the U.S. cotton will move in a range in the short term. Consider taking profits on the long position of the recent main contract of Zhengzhou cotton. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [54]. Black Metals Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: Steel has started to accumulate inventory, and the steel price will continue to oscillate. The supply of the five major steel products has increased, the inventory has started to accumulate, and the demand has weakened seasonally [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the coal and coke market and oscillate. Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; short the hot - rolled coil to coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread; stay on the sidelines for options [57]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Core Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and attention should be paid to callback risks. The current supply and demand of coking coal are relatively balanced, and the price is mainly driven by macro - sentiment and funds [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be cautious about callback risks for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [60]. Iron Ore - **Core Viewpoint**: Market expectations are fluctuating, and the iron ore price at a high level should be treated bearishly. The supply is abundant, and the domestic steel demand is expected to decline, limiting the upward space of the iron ore price [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on the iron ore contract at a high level with a light position [63]. Ferroalloys - **Core Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has generally cooled down, and it will move in a range in the short term. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon have their own characteristics, and the cost has a certain impact on the price [65][66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Move in a range in the short term for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddles for options [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - **Core Viewpoint**: The Bloomberg Index has started to adjust, and gold and silver are fluctuating widely. The adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index has brought selling pressure to the gold and silver markets, and the impact on silver is more significant [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines temporarily and wait for the market to stabilize. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [70]. Platinum and Palladium - **Core Viewpoint**: The BCOM has adjusted the weights, and precious metals are fluctuating widely. The supply and demand fundamentals of platinum and palladium are different, and the price is affected by factors such as index adjustment and macro - environment [73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and options [74]. Copper - **Core Viewpoint**: Short - term fluctuations have intensified. Buy after the price stabilizes after a callback. Trump's policies and factors such as supply - demand mismatch and financial attributes support the long - term rise of the copper price, but short - term fluctuations are affected by funds and sentiment [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton and buy in batches while controlling the position [78]. Alumina - **Core Viewpoint**: The expectation of an increase in warehouse receipts has led to a price callback. After the price increase, the import window has opened, and the expectation of an increase in warehouse receipts has put pressure on the price [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will be under pressure [81]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Viewpoint**: There is a short - term risk of a callback. After the price approaches the previous high, funds have taken profits, and the price has followed the sector to correct. However, the fundamentals still have support [83][86]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the price corrects due to capital outflows, maintain a bullish view after the price stabilizes. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [86]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Viewpoint**: It has corrected with the sector. The price has corrected with the non - ferrous metal sector, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the price, but the demand is weakening [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will correct in the short term due to capital outflows and move with the sector. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [88]. Zinc - **Core Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the impact of the capital side. The shortage pattern of zinc ore is difficult to reverse, the supply of refined zinc may increase slightly, and the consumption has resilience. The price may be affected by capital withdrawal and inventory changes [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on the zinc contract at a high level with a light position and be vigilant about the pull - up of the zinc price by long - position funds. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [91]. Lead - **Core Viewpoint**: Buy on dips after the price stabilizes. The supply of lead ingots is difficult to increase significantly, the consumption has resilience, and low inventory and other factors may attract long - position funds [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain the idea of going long on dips after the price corrects. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; buy out - of - the - money call options in a timely manner for options [95]. Nickel - **Core Viewpoint**: After an over - rise and correction, it is ready to rise again. The supply of nickel is in surplus, but the price has risen due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations. It is recommended to control the position and operate cautiously [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on dips after the price corrects and stabilizes. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [97][98]. Stainless Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: It moves following the nickel price. The price is supported by factors such as the expected reduction of nickel ore RKAB quotas, but the upward drive is weaker than that of nickel [100]. - **Trading Strategy**: Move following the nickel price. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [100]. Industrial Silicon - **Core Viewpoint**: Be bearish. The production of industrial silicon is difficult to reduce, the downstream demand may decline, and the inventory may continue to accumulate, so the price may fall [101]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold existing short positions and go short on rallies for new strategies. There is no arbitrage opportunity; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [102]. Polysilicon - **Core Viewpoint**: The market trading of industry self - regulation falls short of expectations, and the futures price is weak. The futures price has fallen due to market rumors, and the industry needs to reach a new balance between "anti - involution" and "anti - monopoly" [104]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is weak. Participate cautiously and control risks. There is no arbitrage and option strategy [105]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core Viewpoint**: A strong variety has corrected but is still running at a high level. Although there is a callback risk due to factors such as industry meetings, the long - term trend is good, and the price center will move up [107]. - **Trading Strategy**: Control the position and operate cautiously. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [107]. Tin - **Core Viewpoint**: Short - term fluctuations have intensified. Pay attention to the tariff ruling and non - farm payroll data. The import of tin concentrate has increased, the inventory has decreased, and the demand is in the off - season [109][110]. - **Trading Strategy**: Correct with the non - ferrous metal sector in the short term and pay attention to the non - farm payroll data on Friday. Stay on the sidelines for options [110]. Shipping Sector Container Shipping - **Core Viewpoint**: The peak of spot freight rates is gradually being established, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices. The demand growth has slowed down, and some shipping companies have started to lower their spot quotes [113]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the rate of shipping companies' price cuts. Look for opportunities to go long on the 6 - 10 spread on dips for arbitrage [114][115]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, and the oil price has rebounded significantly. The situation in Venezuela remains unchanged, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, leading to a significant rebound in the oil price. The oil price is expected to fluctuate widely [118]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate widely for single - side trading; the domestic gasoline is strong, the diesel is weak, and the crude oil calendar spread is strong for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [118]. Asphalt - **Core Viewpoint**: The sharp rise in the crude oil price provides strong cost support. The cost support is obvious due to the rise in the crude oil price, and the asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a high level [123]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate at a high level for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [123]. Fuel Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and price fluctuations have intensified. The situation in Venezuela has an impact on fuel oil exports and production, and the supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have their own characteristics [127]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term and be vigilant about geopolitical risks for single - side trading; look for opportunities for the FU59 spread for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [127]. Natural Gas - **Core Viewpoint**: TTF/JKM is oscillating at a low level, and HH is oscillating weakly. The demand in Europe and Asia is weak, and the supply in the United States is relatively loose. The price is expected to decline in the long term [130][131]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the third - quarter TTF or JKM contracts. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [131]. LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: There is a short - term geopolitical premium, but the expectation is still under pressure. The increase in the Saudi CP price provides support, but the continuous loss of PDH profits may lead to a decrease in the operating rate [135]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian incident. Be bearish on the far - month contracts in the long term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [135]. PX&PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: The news of polyester production cuts has fermented. The PX supply is relatively abundant, the PTA production rate has not changed much, and the downstream polyester production cuts have increased, but the cost is supported by the rise in the oil price [137]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear upward/downward trend and the market trend is emerging on the trading floor) [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market sentiment is fluctuating, and different steel - related products have different fundamentals and price trends. Short - term price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policy expectations, and market sentiment, and there may be significant fluctuations [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread continued to decline, production increased slightly, and inventory began to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils decreased, production continued to increase slightly, and inventory decreased slowly with pressure remaining [2] - Steel mill profits are marginally repaired, the reduction in blast furnace production has slowed down significantly, and molten iron production has stabilized and rebounded in the short term. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [2] - From the downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline, domestic demand was generally weak, and steel exports remained at a high level [2] - The optimistic sentiment in the commodity market has cooled, the futures prices are under pressure to decline, and the fluctuations have intensified significantly. It is expected that there will still be fluctuations in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Today, the iron ore futures prices were weakly volatile. On the supply side, global shipments declined seasonally, while domestic arrivals increased month - on - month. Considering the strong overseas shipments in the early stage, it is expected to remain at a high level in the short term, and port inventory continues to increase [3] - On the demand side, terminal demand is weak in the off - season. Steel mill profitability has improved recently, and molten iron production has stabilized at a low level, but there will be no obvious resumption of production in the short term. Steel mill inventories of imported ore have increased but are still at a low level, and there is still a certain rigid restocking demand in the future [3] - The sentiment in the commodity market is fluctuating, the fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the risk of intensified high - level fluctuations in the future [3] Coke - The intraday coke price rose and then declined. The fifth round of price cuts was suspended. Coking profits are average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory increased slightly. Currently, downstream customers are making small - scale on - demand purchases, and traders' purchasing willingness is average [4] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream molten iron production is at a seasonal low, and the demand for raw materials is still resilient. Although the profit level of steel has been slightly repaired, the pressure on raw material prices is still strong [4] - The coke futures price is at a premium. After the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. However, the market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and the capital game on the trading floor has intensified [4] Coking Coal - The intraday coking coal price rose and then declined. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased, and the negative pressure on prices decreased slightly. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly. At the end of the year, some coal mines reduced or stopped production due to factors such as safety production and completion of annual production tasks [5] - Spot auction transactions were acceptable, and the transaction price increased slightly. Terminal inventory increased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal increased slightly, and production - end inventory decreased slightly [5] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream molten iron production is at a seasonal low, and the demand for raw materials is still resilient. Although the profit level of steel has been slightly repaired, the pressure on raw material prices is still strong [5] - The coke futures price is at a premium, and the coking coal futures price is at a discount. After the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. However, the market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and the capital game on the trading floor has intensified [5] Silicomanganese - The intraday silicomanganese price declined significantly. Driven by the rebound of the futures price, the spot price of manganese ore increased. There is a structural problem with the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The smelting end of silicomanganese pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace [6] - On the demand side, molten iron production decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicomanganese decreased slightly, and the inventory of silicomanganese decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "anti - involution" [6] - It is recommended to buy on dips [6] Ferrosilicon - The intraday ferrosilicon price declined significantly. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices [7] - On the demand side, molten iron production rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand decreased to more than 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. Overall, demand is still resilient [7] - Ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "anti - involution". It is recommended to buy on dips [7]