Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the market trends and strategic outlook for the black metal industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of mid-September 2025, the market price for ordinary medium plates (20mm, Q235) is 3512.9 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.33% [1] - The highest recorded price for the same period in the past five years was 5736.5 yuan per ton in mid-September 2021 [1]

Report Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market is in a volatile pattern, with demand expectations being pessimistic and the market sentiment cautious [1] - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2] - Coke and coking coal prices are relatively firm due to sufficient carbon supply, high downstream hot metal levels, and pre - National Day replenishment sentiment [3][5] - Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices have an upward drive, and it is recommended to go long on dips under the "anti - involution" background [6][7] Summary by Commodity Steel - Today's steel futures fluctuated mainly. Thread demand continued to recover, production stabilized, and inventory declined. Hot - rolled coil demand and production slightly decreased, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly [1] - Iron - water production remained high, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain eased, but poor steel profits restricted further production resumption space [1] - Downstream demand was weak, with real - estate investment decline expanding, and infrastructure and manufacturing growth slowing down. Steel exports remained high [1] Iron Ore - The supply side was relatively strong, with overseas shipments being relatively high and non - mainstream shipments increasing significantly recently. Domestic arrivals rebounded to a relatively high level this year, and port inventory fluctuated mainly [2] - The demand side was supported by high short - term iron - water production. Steel mills' imported ore inventory increased significantly, and there was still a certain pre - holiday replenishment demand [2] - The market speculative sentiment was volatile due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and pending domestic policies [2] Coke - The intraday price fluctuated upward. The first round of coke price increases was partially implemented. Coke production decreased slightly, and overall inventory increased [3] - The supply of carbon elements was sufficient, and high downstream hot - metal levels supported the price. The pre - National Day replenishment sentiment also contributed to the relatively firm price [3] Coking Coal - The intraday price was in a strong - side fluctuation. Mongolian coal customs clearance was suspended during the National Day holiday and resumed on October 8th [5] - Coking coal mine production increased slightly. Pre - National Day replenishment sentiment was strong, with more spot auction transactions and improved prices [5] - Total coking coal inventory increased month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. The possibility of further significant capacity release was low under the over - production inspection background [5] Silicomanganese - The intraday price fluctuated upward. The "Three - Carbon" concept provided an upward drive [6] - Demand was supported by high iron - water production. Weekly production increased, and inventory did not accumulate. Manganese ore prices were slightly higher, and inventory accumulation was slow [6] Ferrosilicon - The intraday price fluctuated upward. The "Three - Carbon" concept drove the price up [7] - Total demand was acceptable, with high iron - water production and stable export demand. Metal magnesium production decreased slightly [7] - Supply recovered to a high level, market spot and futures demand was good, and inventory decreased slightly [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector maintained a volatile trend today, with general spot steel transactions and ongoing pre - holiday restocking. The overall output of the five major steel products increased this week, but hot - rolled production decreased. Affected by supply pressure, the apparent demand for hot - rolled weakened, while the demand for rebar continued to recover. With the cooling weather, the downstream demand improved, leading to an overall increase in the apparent demand of the five major steel products. Steel inventories entered an inflection point, with the five major steel products starting to destock and the inventory accumulation rate of hot - rolled slowing down. It is expected that the molten iron output will remain high this week. The approaching typhoon in South China and the upcoming double festivals may affect some construction site demands. However, with the cooling weather, steel demand may recover to some extent after the festivals. Since mid - September, there have been many market rumors, causing the futures market to rise rapidly, but currently, there is a lack of further upward drivers. Pre - holiday long - position funds may leave the market one after another. Recently, rebar production has resumed, so there is still pressure on steel prices, and there may be a risk of decline about a week after the festivals. If the downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. In addition, the content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will also affect market fluctuations. Subsequently, it is necessary to pay attention to the peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3260 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3190 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3400 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3330 yuan (-) [6] Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Maintain a volatile trend - Arbitrage: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and continue holding the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] - **Important Information** - On September 25, the China Index Academy monitored that the total bond financing of the real estate industry in August 2025 was 55.31 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3%. From May to July, the monthly financing amount showed an increasing trend, but in August, the monthly financing amount decreased year - on - year. The average bond financing interest rate was 2.51%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.01 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points [8] - In August 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 145.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [10] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, contract spreads, and profit margins, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind. These charts cover different contract periods (01, 05, 10) and different types of profit margins (disk profit, cash profit, etc.) [16][18][20]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term price of rebar is expected to be in a narrow - range consolidation as there is no obvious upward driving force, but the downward space is also limited [1]. - The iron ore price is expected to show a volatile trend due to the interweaving of long and short factors [1]. - The coking coal and coke prices are expected to have a wide - range volatile operation in the short term [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are expected to follow the overall fluctuation of the black commodities in the short term, with limited fundamental driving forces [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views Steel - The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3164 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.29%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 0.08 million lots in positions. The spot price was stable with a slight increase, and the trading volume increased slightly. The national building materials production, social inventory, factory inventory, and apparent demand all changed, showing weak data [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures main contract i2601 closed at 803.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.12%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 200,000 lots and a reduction of 0.8 million lots in positions. The supply of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the demand (hot metal production) increased, and the steel mill profitability declined [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1224.5 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 7155 lots in positions. The spot price of some coking coal varieties changed. The supply side had normal production in most mines, and the demand was good. The iron - making enterprises purchased as needed, and the market was mostly in a wait - and - see state [1]. Coke - The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1730 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton (0.73%), with an increase of 113 lots in positions. The spot price of port coke increased. The cost of coking enterprises increased, and the downstream replenishment demand was released as the holidays approached, but the overall replenishment was expected to be limited [1]. Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures price strengthened in a volatile manner, with the main contract closing at 5916 yuan/ton, up 0.44% month - on - month, and the positions decreased by 1401 lots to 333,800 lots. The market price in some regions changed. The steel procurement was ongoing, and the production was expected to increase. The cost was relatively stable [1]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened in a volatile manner, with the main contract closing at 5742 yuan/ton, up 0.88% month - on - month, and the positions increased by 621 lots to 188,000 lots. The market price in some regions changed. Some production enterprises resumed production, and the downstream steel mills' inventory days increased. The cost was supported to some extent [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, spot prices, profits, and cross - variety spreads of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [2]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][8][10][14]. 3.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis data of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon for different years and contracts [16][18][21][23]. 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread data of different contracts (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months) of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39]. 3.4 Cross - variety Contract Spreads - The report shows the spreads of cross - variety contracts, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43][44]. 3.5 Rebar Profits - The report presents the profit data of rebar, including the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][49][50]. 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel have corrected, with reduced spot trading volume and a still weak market sentiment. Macro - level, US interest rate cuts are beneficial for mid - cycle liquidity and risk appetite, and the follow - up of domestic policies needs to be observed. Industry - level, steel demand in the off - season is not strong, and the improvement in building materials' apparent demand is not significant. There is cost support due to high hot metal production and pre - National Day furnace charge restocking, but high production of building materials poses a potential risk. Futures trading suggests waiting and seeing, and for basis - stage buying hedging positions, consider rolling profit - taking before the National Day according to spot exposure [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has improved, but there are concerns in the fundamentals. The industry's average profit has been restored, and supply continues to increase. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", terminal demand needs verification, and the risk of a decline in hot metal and electric furnace start - up accumulates, which may impact demand. Current industry inventories are still high, and there is pressure to reduce inventories [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal spot prices are strong. Before the National Day, due to restocking, coking coal auction transactions are good, and prices mostly rise. Futures are oscillating. Although there are positive macro - news, the market shows a "sell - on - news" sign. From an industry perspective, the cost support is verified, but due to the lack of obvious improvement in terminal demand, the upward driving force is limited. It is recommended to gradually liquidate long positions before the National Day and use selling hedging when prices rise [3]. - **Iron Ore**: There are many rumors in the market during the iron ore conference week. Steel mills' hot metal production has slightly increased, and the profit rate has declined. Steel mills' restocking for the National Day is almost over. Before the National Day, factors such as restricted circulation of mineral resources and restocking support iron ore prices, but the upside depends on steel demand. The long - term view is to buy on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **Contract Closing Prices**: On September 23, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3212 yuan/ton (- 33 yuan, - 1.02%), HC2605 at 3351 yuan/ton (- 42 yuan, - 1.24%), etc.; for near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3155 yuan/ton (- 32 yuan, - 1.00%), HC2601 at 3340 yuan/ton (- 45 yuan, - 1.33%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: On September 23, the spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 57 yuan/ton (+ 2 yuan), the spread between HC2601 and HC2605 was - 11 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan), etc. The coil - to - rebar spread was 185 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.93 (- 0.01), etc. [1]. Spot Market - **Prices**: On September 23, Shanghai rebar was 3250 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan), Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3370 yuan/ton (- 70 yuan), etc. [1]. - **Basis**: On September 23, the basis of HC main contract was 30 yuan/ton (- 30 yuan), the basis of RB main contract was 95 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), etc. [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For the stock index, after continuous previous rises, high - level hot sectors like AI have shown divergence recently. There is a short - term adjustment pressure on the index due to capital rotation and shrinking trading volume. However, in the long - term, with policy support for the capital market remaining unchanged, the strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - Regarding national debt, considering the slowdown of economic data in August and the expected weakening of the export pull, along with the central bank's maintenance of loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the short term, but the stock - bond seesaw effect needs attention [8]. - For precious metals, after the September interest - rate cut, the dovish stance of the Fed's key figures makes the market expect further interest - rate cuts. It is recommended to go long on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, most metals are affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy. Although short - term sentiment may be affected, with the approach of the National Day holiday, downstream demand is expected to increase, providing support for metal prices. Different metals have different supply - demand situations, and corresponding strategies are formulated accordingly [13][15][17][19][20][22][24][26][28][30]. - In the black building materials sector, the steel market is affected by factors such as weak demand and narrowing steel mill profits, and there is a risk of price decline. The iron ore market is expected to oscillate, and the glass and soda ash markets are expected to continue to oscillate and sort out. The manganese - silicon and silicon - iron markets may have a short - term downward callback risk but may have multi - allocation value in the future. Industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply - demand changes and policy impacts [34][36][37][40][42][43][47][49]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different supply - demand and price trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be long - term bullish and short - term neutral or slightly bullish; crude oil is recommended to be long - term multi - allocated; methanol and urea are recommended to be observed; pure benzene and styrene are recommended to go long on dips; PVC and ethylene glycol are recommended to go short on rallies; PTA and p - xylene are recommended to be observed [53][56][58][60][62][64][66][69][71]. - In the agricultural products sector, the pig price is expected to be stable or decline, and it is recommended to go short on the near - month contract and do reverse arbitrage. The egg price is expected to be stable, and it is recommended to observe in the short term and pay attention to buying the far - month contract after a decline. The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate in a range, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. The oil market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the medium - term, and it is recommended to buy after a decline and stabilization. The sugar market is expected to be bearish in the long - term but may have a short - term rebound. The cotton market is recommended to be observed in the short term [79][81][84][86][88][91]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The arrival of the central delegation in Xinjiang, the new high of spot gold prices, the continuous capital inflow of KWEB, and the suspension of trading of Tianpu Co., Ltd. for verification [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: Short - term adjustment pressure exists, but long - term long - on - dips strategy is recommended [4]. - **National Debt** - **Market Information**: The decline of main contracts on Tuesday, the release of August's power consumption data, and the reduction of the US current - account deficit [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 2761 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 109 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Interest rates are expected to decline, and the bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the short term [8]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: The price changes of domestic and foreign gold and silver, the dovish stance of the Fed's key figures [9]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: The slight decline of LME copper, the reduction of LME and SHFE copper inventories, and the narrowing of the refined - scrap price difference [11]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may oscillate and rise [13]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: The decline of LME aluminum, the reduction of SHFE aluminum positions and inventories, and the change of the spot - futures basis [14]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may repair upwards [15]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: The decline of the zinc index, the change of positions and inventories, and the calculation of the import profit and loss [16]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is expected to be weak [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: The decline of the lead index, the change of positions and inventories, and the calculation of the import profit and loss [18]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is expected to be strong [19]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: The oscillatory operation of nickel prices, the stable cost of nickel ore and nickel iron, and the increase of MHP prices [20]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the long - term, and the short - term price is expected to operate within a certain range [20]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: The decline of the tin contract, the increase of registered warehouse receipts, and the decline of tin concentrate prices [21]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to observe [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The stable spot price and the increase of the futures contract price [23]. - **Strategy**: The price has a strong bottom support, and it is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand and market sentiment [24]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The decline of the alumina index, the change of positions, and the opening of the import window [25]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe and wait for macro - sentiment resonance [26]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The decline of the stainless - steel contract, the stable spot price, and the reduction of social inventories [27]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate [28]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The decline of the AD2511 contract, the change of positions and inventories, and the stable average price [29]. - **Strategy**: The price is under pressure above and supported by the cost of scrap aluminum [30]. 3.3 Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The decline of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices, the change of registered warehouse receipts and positions, and the decline of spot prices [32]. - **Strategy**: There is a risk of price decline if demand cannot be effectively repaired [34]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The decline of the iron - ore contract, the change of positions, and the calculation of the basis [35]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery and de - stocking speed [36]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The decline of glass and soda - ash futures prices, the change of inventories and positions [37][39]. - **Strategy**: Both are expected to continue to oscillate and sort out [37][40]. - **Manganese - silicon and Silicon - iron** - **Market Information**: The rise of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures prices, and the stable spot prices [41]. - **Strategy**: There may be a short - term downward callback risk, but multi - allocation value may appear in the future [42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The decline of industrial - silicon and polysilicon futures prices, and the change of positions and inventories [46][48]. - **Strategy**: Both are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply - demand changes and policy impacts [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemical - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: The impact of typhoon "Huajiacha", the different views of bulls and bears, and the change of tire - enterprise operating rates and inventories [51][52][53]. - **Strategy**: Long - term bullish, short - term neutral or slightly bullish [53]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: The decline of WTI, Brent, and INE crude - oil futures prices, and the de - stocking of refined - oil products in Fujeirah Port [54]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to multi - allocate [56]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: The change of methanol prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [57]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe [58]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: The decline of urea prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [59]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe or go long on dips [60]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: The change of pure - benzene and styrene prices, basis, and supply - demand indicators [61]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips [62]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The decline of PVC prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [63]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go short on rallies [64]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The decline of ethylene - glycol prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [65]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go short on rallies, but beware of non - fulfillment of weak expectations [66]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The decline of PTA prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [67]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe [69]. - **p - Xylene** - **Market Information**: The decline of p - xylene prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [70]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe and pay attention to the recovery of the terminal and PTA valuations [71]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: The decline of PE futures prices, the change of spot prices, basis, and supply - demand indicators [72]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate upwards in the long - term [73]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The decline of PP futures prices, the change of spot prices, basis, and supply - demand indicators [74]. - **Strategy**: There is no prominent short - term contradiction, and the price is under pressure from high - level warehouse receipts [75]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Pig** - **Market Information**: The stable or declining pig prices in different regions, and the abundant supply and limited demand [78]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go short on the near - month contract and do reverse arbitrage [79]. - **Egg** - **Market Information**: The stable egg prices, and the stable supply and general demand [80]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short term and pay attention to buying the far - month contract after a decline [81]. - **Soybean Meal** - **Market Information**: The weak rebound of US soybeans, the cancellation of Argentina's export tax, and the change of domestic soybean and soybean - meal inventories [82]. - **Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate in a range, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [84]. - **Oil** - **Market Information**: The change of palm - oil export and production in Malaysia, the decline of domestic oil prices, and the stable spot basis [85]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the medium - term, and it is recommended to buy after a decline and stabilization [86]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The decline of sugar futures and spot prices, and the decrease of Brazil's sugar exports [87]. - **Strategy**: Bearish in the long - term, but may have a short - term rebound [88]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The decline of cotton futures and spot prices, the change of downstream operating rates and inventories, and the high - quality rate of US cotton [90]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short term [91].

Core Insights - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories shows a mixed trend, with 25 products experiencing price increases, 23 seeing declines, and 2 remaining stable in mid-September 2025 compared to early September 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Changes in Key Categories - In the black metal category, notable price increases include rebar at 3,184.1 CNY per ton (up 0.3%), wire rod at 3,317.6 CNY per ton (up 0.4%), and hot-rolled ordinary plate at 3,428.8 CNY per ton (up 0.6%) [4]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper rose to 80,550.7 CNY per ton (up 0.7%), while aluminum ingots increased to 20,894.3 CNY per ton (up 1.0%) [4]. - Chemical products showed mixed results, with sulfuric acid dropping to 685.0 CNY per ton (down 4.4%) and methanol rising to 2,258.5 CNY per ton (up 1.6%) [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) decreased to 3,863.8 CNY per ton (down 1.6%), while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) slightly increased to 4,507.7 CNY per ton (up 0.1%) [4]. - Coal prices showed a slight increase, with anthracite coal at 869.1 CNY per ton (up 2.4%) and ordinary mixed coal at 529.3 CNY per ton (up 0.5%) [4]. Group 3: Agricultural and Forestry Products - In agricultural products, yellow corn rose to 2,304.0 CNY per ton (up 0.2%), while cotton prices fell to 14,654.3 CNY per ton (down 0.4%) [5]. - The price of natural rubber decreased to 14,872.6 CNY per ton (down 0.9%), while the price of corrugated paper increased to 2,780.7 CNY per ton (up 1.2%) [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report covers multiple commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. All are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations or repeated oscillations, with trend intensities all at 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][4][7][11][15][17]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The futures closed at 802.5 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan (-0.74%). The position decreased by 15,454 hands. Spot prices of various types of iron ore remained unchanged. The basis increased by 6 yuan [4]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: RB2601 futures closed at 3,155 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan (-1.00%); HC2601 closed at 3,340 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan (-1.33%). Rebar position increased by 20,270 hands, while hot - rolled coil decreased by 15,676 hands. Spot prices generally declined [7]. - **News**: In the September 18 steel weekly data, rebar production decreased by 5.48 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 1.35 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 3.58 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 4.67 tons. In August 2025, national crude steel production was 7737 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed small changes. The basis and spread also had corresponding fluctuations [11]. - **News**: On September 23, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions changed, and the prices of 6517 silicomanganese in the north and south also changed. Zhongtian Iron and Steel's ferrosilicon purchase price dropped by 50 yuan/ton [11]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: JM2601 futures closed at 1217.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; J2601 closed at 1717.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan. Spot prices of coking coal and coke had some changes, and the basis and spread also fluctuated [15]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [15]. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The prices and trading volumes of different log contracts showed different degrees of change, and the spot prices of various types of logs were mostly stable [18]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [20].

Monetary Policy - The central bank emphasizes a supportive monetary policy stance, implementing moderate easing without immediate adjustments to short-term policies [1] - As of the end of August, various long-term funds held approximately 21.4 trillion yuan in A-share market, reflecting a 32% increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] - The LPR remained unchanged in September, while the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts have influenced market risk appetite positively [1] Key Commodities Oil - Oil prices are under pressure due to recent weather impacts in Malaysia, with palm oil production expected to decrease by 8.05% for the period of September 1-15, 2025 [2][27] - Exports of Malaysian palm oil are projected to decline by 24.7% during the same period, contributing to the bearish sentiment in the oil sector [2][27] Gold - Following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, gold prices have rebounded, reaching new highs [3][18] - Strong retail sales data from the U.S. and ongoing expectations for further rate cuts have sustained bullish sentiment in the gold market [3][18] Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices have risen, with significant trading volumes, indicating a phase of consolidation after prolonged gains [4][10] - The financing balance decreased by 4.15 billion yuan to 23.816 trillion yuan, reflecting a divergence in market sentiment [4][10] Domestic News - The implementation of the "9.24" policy package has strengthened the foundation for stability in China's capital markets, with significant increases in trading volumes and new account openings [6] - As of September 18, the financing and securities balance reached 24.024 trillion yuan, with daily trading volumes in the A-share market exceeding 3 trillion yuan multiple times this year [6] Industry News - The State Council is prioritizing the establishment of national standards for pre-prepared dishes, aiming to enhance consumer rights and choices [8] Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown fluctuations, with current freight rates declining significantly, indicating a competitive pricing environment among shipping companies [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, and concludes that iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range oscillations; rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are in wide - range oscillations; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate around the cost line with wide - range oscillations; logs are in repeated oscillations [2]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The futures price of iron ore contract 12601 is 807.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 0.94% from the previous day, with a position of 574,521 hands, an increase of 40,992 hands. The prices of imported and domestic iron ore in the spot market generally rose slightly. The basis for contract 12601 against Super Special ore increased by 2.4 yuan to 134.3 yuan [4]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Price and Position Data**: The futures price of rebar contract RB2601 is 3,172 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan or 0.73%, with a trading volume of 1,250,591 hands and a position of 1,970,510 hands, a decrease of 29,174 hands. The futures price of hot - rolled coil contract HC2601 is 3,374 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.18%, with a trading volume of 459,672 hands and a position of 1,413,153 hands, an increase of 829 hands. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in various regions showed different degrees of increase or decrease [7]. - **News**: On September 18, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that in terms of production, rebar production decreased by 5.48 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.35 tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 1.78 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar inventory decreased by 3.58 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.67 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 5.13 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar demand increased by 11.96 tons, hot - rolled coil demand decreased by 4.34 tons, and the total demand of five major varieties increased by 7 tons. In August 2025, the national crude steel production was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [8]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of rebar and hot - rolled coils is 0, indicating a neutral view [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The futures price of ferrosilicon contract 2511 is 5,736 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the futures price of contract 2601 is 5,736 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The futures price of silicomanganese contract 2511 is 5,930 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the futures price of contract 2601 is 5,964 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia are 5,350 yuan/ton and 5,730 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - **News**: On September 19, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions changed, and the prices of silicon - manganese 6517 in the north and south were reported. As of September 19, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 241,500 tons [11]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The futures price of coking coal contract JM2601 is 1,232 yuan/ton, up 28.5 yuan or 2.4%, with a trading volume of 1,078,119 hands and a position of 723,291 hands, a decrease of 1,081 hands. The futures price of coke contract J2601 is 1,738.5 yuan/ton, up 29.5 yuan or 1.7%, with a trading volume of 23,627 hands and a position of 45,788 hands, a decrease of 644 hands. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions remained stable, while some changed slightly [15]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [15]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [16]. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 802 yuan, up 0.4% from the previous day and 0.1% week - on - week; the trading volume is 5,117 hands, a decrease of 18.9% from the previous day and 43% week - on - week; the position is 13,421 hands, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous day and 15% week - on - week. The prices of different types of logs in the spot market in Shandong and Jiangsu remained mostly stable [18]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [20]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [20].