期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 | 基本面支撑有限，焦煤低位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 基本面驱动不足，焦炭区间震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 核心逻辑：根据钢联统计，1 月 30 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 77.1 万吨，周环 比基本持平，小幅增加 0.1 万吨。1 月 20 日~28 日期间，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤合计通关 9728 车， 蒙煤进口量仍维持高 ...

Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3098 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton or 0.96% from the previous trading day, with an increase in open interest by 50,000 contracts [2][11] - Spot prices decreased, with Tangshan's ordinary billet price down 20 CNY/ton to 2920 CNY/ton and Hangzhou's Zhongtian rebar price down 20 CNY/ton to 3180 CNY/ton; national construction material transaction volume was 46,800 tons [2][11] - National construction material inventory increased by 6.76% to 3.3745 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory rose by 2.74% to 2.1083 million tons, indicating increased supply pressure [2][11] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 783 CNY/ton, down 8.5 CNY/ton or 1.07%, with a trading volume of 300,000 contracts and a reduction in open interest by 2,000 contracts [3][12] - Australian shipments decreased by 170,000 tons to 18.204 million tons, while Brazilian shipments increased by 143.7 million tons to 7.006 million tons, leading to a global shipment recovery [3][12] - Iron production decreased by 0.12 million tons to 2.2798 million tons, with continued inventory accumulation at ports and steel mills [3][12] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1141.5 CNY/ton, down 14 CNY/ton or 1.21%, with a decrease in open interest by 19,459 contracts [4][12] - In the Shanxi Linfen region, the price of fat coal was lowered by 35 CNY to 690 CNY/ton, while other coal prices showed slight increases [4][12] - With the approach of the Spring Festival, coal supply is expected to tighten as more mines enter holiday shutdowns, while downstream demand remains weak [4][12] Coke - The coke futures contract closed at 1680.5 CNY/ton, down 41 CNY/ton or 2.38%, with a decrease in open interest by 378 contracts [5][13] - The spot market for coke remained stable, with the price of first-grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port unchanged at 1470 CNY/ton [5][13] - Steel mill profits remain low, leading to reduced demand for coke as many mills are halting operations for maintenance [5][13] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures contract closed at 5834 CNY/ton, down 0.88%, with a decrease in open interest by 1,833 contracts [6][14] - The market price ranged from 5620 to 5850 CNY/ton, with a 20 CNY/ton decrease in Inner Mongolia [6][14] - Steel mill demand for silicon manganese showed some improvement due to pre-holiday stocking, but overall supply and demand dynamics remain weak [6][14] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures contract closed at 5624 CNY/ton, down 1.02%, with a decrease in open interest by 1,038 contracts [7][15] - The price range for silicon iron was approximately 5300 to 5350 CNY/ton, with a 20 CNY/ton increase in Inner Mongolia [7][15] - Steel mill inquiries for silicon iron are declining as the market approaches the end of the pre-holiday period, leading to reduced trading activity [7][15]

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 699.0 1.0 6.0 9.0 -66.0 25省终端可用天数 17.8 -0.3 -2.2 -3.1 0.2 秦皇岛5000 614.0 1.0 8.0 19.0 -56.0 25省终端供煤 626.1 4.7 17.5 -14.0 3.2 广州港5500 795.0 0.0 0.0 -15.0 -65.0 北方港库存 2330.0 -10.0 -98.0 -265.0 36.6 鄂尔多斯5500 500.0 0.0 10.0 5.0 -40.0 北方锚地船舶 85.0 0.0 -15.0 20.0 35.0 大同5500 555.0 0.0 10.0 5.0 -75.0 北方港调入量 130.1 -21.1 -33.2 16.8 11.5 榆林6000 670.0 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -82.0 北方港吞吐量 151.2 -25.7 -11.0 9.7 15.7 榆林6200 745.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -35.0 CBCFI海运指数 596.2 -18.6 -83.0 -13.0 121.1 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 2 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：进入迎峰度冬关键时期，居民生活用电明显改善，且距离春节尚有两周时间，工业用 电尚未回落，短期内电厂煤炭日耗进入全年顶峰时段，下游电厂和其他终端企业补库需求仍存， 支撑煤价企稳小幅反弹。不过，在 1 月旺季的背景下，港口 5500K 煤价全月仅小幅上涨 11 元/吨， 同样反映出了当前煤炭基本面的乏力，以及市场对后续煤炭供需格局的偏空预期。整体来看，短 期需求旺盛、北港库存持续去化，以及下游终端企业仍有补库需求等因素支撑煤价小幅反弹，但 动力煤中长期基本面仍有压力，预计节前煤价低位窄幅运行，短期或维持小 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to trade in a narrow range [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to trade weakly in resonance with market sentiment [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to trade weakly as cost expectations loosen, and silicomanganese is expected to trade weakly in resonance with commodity sentiment [2][12]. - Coke is expected to trade at high levels, and coking coal is expected to trade at high levels as events unfold [2][18][19]. - Thermal coal supply and demand are in a weak balance, and prices are expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][23]. - Logs are expected to see a slight price increase [2][25]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 783.0 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton or 1.07%. The open interest decreased by 20,544 to 520,684 lots. Spot prices of various iron ore types decreased, and some basis and price spreads changed [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Hot - Rolled Coil and Rebar - **Fundamental Data**: In the week of January 29, rebar production increased by 0.28 million tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.8 million tons. Rebar inventory increased by 23.43 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons. Rebar apparent demand decreased by 9.12 million tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.45 million tons [8][10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were various production, inventory, and price data from the China Iron and Steel Association, and an accident at Baotou Steel's plate plant. Also, BHP's iron ore production hit a record high, and China implemented export license management for some steel products [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Various price spreads changed [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The proportion of fixed - cost recovery of coal - fired power units through capacity prices will be increased. There were price quotes and production data of ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and manganese ore from different sources. River Steel's 75B ferrosilicon tender price decreased, and manganese ore inventory increased [12][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coking coal (JM2605) and coke (J2605) decreased. Spot prices of most coking coal and coke types remained stable. Some basis and price spreads changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The CCI metallurgical coal index decreased, and the coking coal online auction had a higher failure rate and mixed price changes [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [22]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: There were price data of thermal coal from different regions, including origin, port, and overseas prices. The February long - term contract prices of thermal coal in some regions decreased [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The port market was stable with weak trading. Some Indonesian coal mines may have a significant production cut. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on improving the power - generation - side capacity price mechanism [23][24]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: There were price, trading volume, and open - interest data of log futures contracts. Spot prices of various log types in different markets had different fluctuations [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [28].

另外，大摩续指，短期内矿井端供应减少支撑着动力煤价格，随着农历新年假期临近，下游补库需求略 为回升，国内煤炭总供应仍然充足。另一方面，由于水电、太阳能等可再生能源发电量上升，需求可能 出现温和下滑。疲弱的行业基本面将对动力煤价格及中国神华的盈利构成压力。然而，持续的成本管控 以及资产注入带来的预期产量增长，将为盈利提供更高稳定性。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，中国神华（601088）(01088)预期2025年净利润将同比下降7%至16%，至495亿 至545亿元人民币，大致符合市场预期。该行按此推算，预计公司上季净利润将介乎104亿至154亿元人 民币，相较2024年同期则为153亿元人民币。该行予中国神华H股目标价44.1港元，评级为"增持"。 ...

Group 1 - CITIC Securities predicts that the establishment of an independent new energy storage capacity pricing mechanism by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration will stabilize revenue expectations for energy storage and stimulate investment enthusiasm among owners [1] - The cancellation of mandatory energy storage requirements shifts the industry focus from cost competition to value creation, gradually revealing investment value [1] - CITIC Securities expects a rapid growth in domestic energy storage installations by 2026 and is optimistic about leading companies in the energy storage industry chain [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities notes that the risk appetite in the market continued to decline in January, with high dividend sectors performing better than in December, particularly in oil, coal, and steel [1] - Looking ahead to February, Huatai Securities suggests that as market volatility increases, the allocation value of high dividend sectors has marginally improved compared to the previous month, recommending a focus on stable high dividend stocks with defensive attributes and some potential high dividend varieties [1] Group 3 - CITIC Jin Investment indicates that the white liquor industry is approaching a turning point in its adjustment phase, coinciding with the "five bottoms" stage and the capital market's "three lows and one high" [2] - The upcoming Spring Festival season is seen as a potential catalyst for the white liquor sector, presenting a cyclical bottom allocation opportunity in the capital market [2]

摩根士丹利发布研报称，中国神华(01088)预期2025年净利润将同比下降7%至16%，至495亿至545亿元 人民币，大致符合市场预期。该行按此推算，预计公司上季净利润将介乎104亿至154亿元人民币，相较 2024年同期则为153亿元人民币。该行予中国神华H股目标价44.1港元，评级为"增持"。 另外，大摩续指，短期内矿井端供应减少支撑着动力煤价格，随着农历新年假期临近，下游补库需求略 为回升，国内煤炭总供应仍然充足。另一方面，由于水电、太阳能等可再生能源发电量上升，需求可能 出现温和下滑。疲弱的行业基本面将对动力煤价格及中国神华的盈利构成压力。然而，持续的成本管控 以及资产注入带来的预期产量增长，将为盈利提供更高稳定性。 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 3 日 0 / 47 | 股指期货：做空动能释放 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：波澜不惊 4 | | 蛋白粕：供应仍有压力 | 盘面小幅震荡 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价震荡 | 国内价格偏弱 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂维持宽度震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货回落，盘面底部震荡 8 | | | 生猪：出栏压力好转 | 现货震荡运行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 金银：金银震荡初显企稳，节前风控仍是主线 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：巨幅震荡逐步收敛 风险释放后等待低多机会 17 | | 铜：恐慌情绪退坡，铜价企稳 17 | | 氧化铝：震荡为主 18 | | 电解铝：流动性收紧带动价格回调后 震荡为主 19 | | 铸造铝合金：连日回调后 铝合金随板块震荡 20 | ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent policy statement reflects a slightly hawkish stance, leading to adjustments in asset prices, with the dollar index rising and U.S. stocks declining[6] - Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Fed Chair has caused significant market reactions, with expectations of a more independent Fed and a potential shift in monetary policy direction[7] - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 is reported at 49.3%, indicating a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a contraction in manufacturing activity[17] Group 2: Market Performance - Global asset prices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.38% and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.34%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%[8] - Commodity prices experienced divergence, with IPE Brent crude oil futures rising by 6.65% and COMEX copper increasing by 0.51%, while London gold prices decreased by 2.03%[8] - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, with the Federal Funds futures market reflecting limited expectations for aggressive rate reductions following Warsh's nomination[7] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The new economic landscape shows a significant shift towards emerging technologies, with sectors like AI and electric vehicles driving growth, while traditional industries lag behind[28] - The financial sector is expected to benefit from increased asset management demand, with insurance and securities firms poised for growth in a low-interest-rate environment[30] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing marginal improvements, but overall demand remains weak, necessitating further policy support[19]