商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 产量预期强劲，原糖持续承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-07-02 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将 ...

印度6月棕榈油进口或超80万吨，马棕油夜盘小幅走高！印度"抄底"能否助力马棕油站上4000关口？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, with good planting and growth conditions in the US, while domestic soybean meal has good demand but obvious inventory pressure [4][6]. - Raw sugar has declined due to the expected increase in global supply, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively in the short term [12]. - Palm oil is in the stage of production increase and inventory accumulation, domestic soybean oil is in a phased inventory - building period, and rapeseed oil has a pattern of oversupply but strong bottom support [20]. - US corn has good growth conditions, and domestic corn supply is relatively scarce, with spot prices expected to be strong in the short term and futures to fluctuate narrowly [27][29]. - The pig market's supply - side pressure has eased, and the overall price is expected to be weak [35]. - Peanut spot trading is scarce, and the 10 - contract peanut is expected to be strong in the short term but may decline in the medium - to - long term [41]. - The profit of eggs per catty is in a loss or flat state, and the upward space of the 8 - 9 - month contracts depends on the amount of culled chickens [50]. - The low inventory of apples this season is expected to support the opening price of early - maturing apples, and the apple futures price in July is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [54]. - The cotton market is affected by macro - trade policies and fundamentals. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [61]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**：CBOT大豆指数跌0.96%至1033.25美分/蒲，CBOT豆粕指数跌0.42%至286.5美金/短吨 [2]. - **相关资讯**：美豆新作种植面积8340万英亩，6月1日美国大豆结转库存10.1亿蒲；美国大豆优良率66%，出苗率94%，开花率17%，结荚率3%；6月27日当周油厂大豆压榨量248.78万吨，开机率69.93%，大豆库存665.87万吨，豆粕库存69.16万吨 [2][3]. - **逻辑分析**：国际大豆供需宽松，美豆种植生长好但出口一般，巴西产量高卖货慢，阿根廷豆粕压力大；国内豆粕需求好但库存压力明显 [4][6]. - **策略建议**：单边低点少量布局多单，套利MRM09价差扩大，期权观望 [7]. Sugar - **外盘情况**：ICE美糖主力合约跌0.52（3.11%）至16.19美分/磅 [7]. - **重要资讯**：巴西中南部6月上半月甘蔗压榨量预计3987万吨，糖产量252万吨；国内产区白糖报价稳中上升；埃及2026年将实现食糖自给自足，2024/25榨季食糖产量260万吨 [8][9][11]. - **逻辑分析**：原糖受供应增加预期拖累下跌，国内产销节奏快支撑现货，但原糖弱势使配额外进口利润走高，加工糖供应压力将兑现 [12]. - **策略建议**：单边预计短期震荡，套利9 - 1价差止盈，期权虚值比例价差期权 [13][14][15]. Oilseeds and Oils - **外盘情况**：CBOT美豆油主力价格变动 - 0.45%至52.75美分/磅，BMD马棕油主力价格变动 - 0.15%至3981林吉特/吨 [17]. - **相关资讯**：马来西亚6月1 - 30日棕榈油出口量1382460吨，印尼7月毛棕榈油参考价上调；印度取消65000吨毛棕榈油进口订单；美国2025年6月1日大豆库存总量10.1亿蒲式耳，预计种植面积8340万英亩；美国4月用于生物燃料的豆油使用量降至8.29亿磅 [18][19]. - **逻辑分析**：USDA报告后美豆盘面涨跌互现，棕榈油增产累库，国内豆油阶段性累库，菜油供大于求但底部支撑强 [20]. - **交易策略**：单边短期油脂或震荡，回调后适当做多，套利观望，期权观望 [21][22][23]. Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**：CBOT玉米期货外盘回落，12月主力合约回落0.3%，收盘425.0美分/蒲 [26]. - **重要资讯**：CBOT玉米期货收盘互有涨跌，反映美国玉米长势好且供应充足；巴西一茬玉米收割率95.4%，二茬玉米收割率17%；美国玉米优良率73%，吐丝率8%；7月1日北港收购价偏强，华北产区玉米稳定 [27][28]. - **逻辑分析**：美国季度报告持平，外盘玉米企稳，国内玉米供应少，现货相对偏强，09玉米企稳，期现价差缩小 [29]. - **交易策略**：单边外盘09玉米底部震荡，09玉米观望；套利玉米和淀粉套利震荡操作，逢低做扩；期权有现货的可谨慎考虑逢高累沽策略 [30][32][33]. Live Pigs - **相关资讯**：生猪价格震荡偏强，仔猪和母猪价格持平，6月30日全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格上升0.2% [35]. - **逻辑分析**：生猪市场前期规模企业出栏完成进度快，普通养殖户和二次育肥出栏积极性下降，大体重猪源供应减少 [35]. - **策略建议**：单边偏空思路为主，套利LH91正套，期权观望 [36][38]. Peanuts - **重要资讯**：各地花生报价稳定，油厂到货和成交情况一般，花生油报价偏强，花生粕走货少；6月26日国内花生油样本企业花生库存减少6510吨，6月27日花生油库存减少150吨 [39][40]. - **逻辑分析**：花生现货成交少，新季花生稳定，进口量减少，下游消费弱，预计新季种植面积增加，10花生短期偏强震荡，中长期有下跌空间 [41]. - **交易策略**：单边10花生逢高短空，套利观望，期权卖出pk510 - C - 8800期权 [43][44][45]. Eggs - **重要资讯**：全国主流鸡蛋价格多数稳定，部分地区有涨跌；5月全国在产蛋鸡存栏量13.34亿只，样本企业蛋鸡苗月度出苗量4698.5万羽；6月27日一周全国主产区蛋鸡淘鸡出栏量1841万只；6月26日当周全国代表销区鸡蛋销量上升5%；6月26日鸡蛋每斤周度平均盈利 - 0.41元/斤，6月27日蛋鸡养殖预期利润13.84元/羽 [47][48][49]. - **交易逻辑**：单斤鸡蛋利润亏损或持平，盘面期货价格向下空间受限，8、9月合约上涨空间取决于淘汰鸡量 [50]. - **交易策略**：单边梅雨季结束且安全边际高时在远月8、9月合约建仓多单，套利观望，期权卖出看跌期权 [51]. Apples - **重要资讯**：6月18日全国主产区苹果冷库库存量116.49万吨，走货速度环比持平同比减缓；5月鲜苹果进口量1.78万吨，出口量4.55万吨；产地主流成交价格稳定，冷库成交一般；山东烟台栖霞苹果主流价格平稳，2024 - 2025产季栖霞80一二级存储商利润0.9元/斤 [52][53]. - **交易逻辑**：本季苹果库存低支撑早熟苹果开称价格，陕西部分地区坐果略差，7月苹果期货价格大概率震荡略偏强 [54]. - **交易策略**：单边AP10短期逢低建仓多单，套利观望，期权卖出看跌期权 [55][56][57]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**：ICE美棉主力合约跌1.28（1.85%）至68.04美分/磅 [58]. - **重要资讯**：预计美国2025年棉花实际播种面积1012万英亩；截至6月20日，ON - CALL 2512合约上卖方未点价合约增持，24/25年度卖方未点价合约总量减持；棉花现货局部交投略好，基差平稳，2025/26年度新疆新棉预售报价增多 [59][60]. - **交易逻辑**：棉花受中美贸易关系和基本面影响，郑棉短期预计震荡略偏强 [61]. - **交易策略**：单边美棉大概率震荡，郑棉短期震荡偏强，套利观望，期权卖出看跌期权 [61][63].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pulse Daily Report - July 1, 2025: Limited Supply Bullishness, Sideways Market Movement" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Market Performance Futures and Spot Market - **Soybean Meal**: Futures prices showed mixed movements, with different contracts having varying closing prices and changes. Spot basis prices decreased in most regions. For example, the 01 contract of soybean meal closed at 3003 with a gain of 4, and the basis in Tianjin remained at -40. [4] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Futures prices generally increased, and spot basis prices also showed some improvements. For instance, the 05 contract of rapeseed meal closed at 2320 with a gain of 6, and the basis in Guangdong increased by 16 to -116. [4] Spread Analysis - **Monthly Spreads**: Soybean meal monthly spreads had a mixed performance, with some spreads narrowing and others widening. Rapeseed meal monthly spreads showed a phased rebound, mainly influenced by the single - sided movement of the market. [4] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the spreads between soybean meal and sunflower meal, as well as rapeseed meal and sunflower meal, also changed. [4] Market Trends - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean market showed a sideways - down trend as the report lacked bullish drivers, and the market focused on the relatively loose supply - demand situation. [4] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal market moved sideways with limited changes, while the rapeseed meal market rebounded. [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - **US**: The new - crop balance sheet of US soybeans improved due to the boost from biodiesel policies on crushing. As of the week ending June 15, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 66%. The old - crop export inspection volume in the week ending June 12 was 21.58 tons, and the soybean crushing data in May was good, with the NOPA - caliber soybean crushing volume at 192.829 million bushels, a 1.37% increase from the previous month. [5] - **Brazil**: Brazilian farmers' selling progress was relatively slow and at a low level compared to historical periods. The recent selling progress continued to slow down, and price pressure emerged. The recent crushing volume decreased, and although the April crushing volume was good, the crushing profit was relatively low. It is expected that Brazil may further increase exports. [5] - **Argentina**: The domestic crushing volume may improve, and soybean exports may increase as the prices of terminal products have gradually stabilized. [5] Domestic Market - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic spot market remained relatively loose, with the oil refinery operating rate increasing, sufficient supply, and gradually accumulating inventory. As of June 27, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil refineries was 248.78 tons, the operating rate was 69.93%, the soybean inventory was 665.87 tons, a 4.37% increase from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 69.16 tons, a 35.9% increase from the previous week. [6] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The demand for rapeseed meal gradually weakened, and although the supply was sufficient, the demand decline and high - level granular rapeseed meal still posed supply pressure. As of the week ending June 27, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil refineries was 4.3 tons, the operating rate was 11.46%, the rapeseed inventory was 18.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from the previous week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.1 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons from the previous week. [6] Group 4: Macro - analysis - The negotiation between China and the US in London was completed, but the market lacked clear information. There were still many uncertainties in international trade, but as the market gradually stabilized, macro - level disturbances decreased. Due to China's high demand for the US soybean market in the long - term, the price was not likely to drop significantly in the short term. [7] Group 5: Logical Analysis - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal market showed some pressure, but after the previous bearish factors were gradually reflected, the market rebounded. The overall bullish effect of the report was limited, and the recent upward trend slowed down. Although there were short - term bearish factors, the deep - decline space was limited as the price had dropped significantly. [7] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market moved sideways. The demand support was weak, and the upward space was limited due to the relatively high inventory level. [7] - **Spreads**: The monthly spreads of soybean meal had some support, and the monthly spreads of rapeseed meal were relatively strong. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was expected to widen in the future. [7] Group 6: Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: It is recommended to continue to make a small - scale long - position layout for the far - month contracts of soybean meal. [8] - **Arbitrage**: Expand the MRM09 spread. [8] - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. [8] Group 7: Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profit of soybeans from different origins and shipping periods varied. For example, the crushing profit of soybeans from Argentina in October was - 72.23, showing a decrease compared to the previous day. [9]

Report Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural products sector shows mixed performance. Soybean meal rebounds from a low level, while oils fluctuate. Hog prices decline, sugar continues to rise, and other products also present different trends influenced by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and upcoming reports [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - The 2509 contract rebounds from a low level as short - covering occurs before the USDA report. However, with abundant domestic imported soybeans, high oil - mill operation rates, and increasing supply and inventory, the futures price is still under pressure. Technically, it remains weak, and a light - short - position strategy is recommended with support at 2942 and resistance at 2974 [2]. Soybean Oil - The 2509 contract shows a volatile trend of first decline then rise, waiting for the US soybean planting report. Domestic soybean imports and oil - mill压榨量 are high, leading to relatively loose supply and rising inventory, pressuring the futures price. Technically, it turns weak, and a light - short - position strategy is suggested with support at 7920 and resistance at 8012 [3]. Palm Oil - The 2509 contract first declines then rises, narrowing the decline. Crude oil decline, increased Malaysian palm oil production, and slow exports, along with falling domestic import costs and inventory accumulation, pressure the price. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short - position strategy is recommended with support at 8256 and resistance at 8380 [6]. Cotton - The 2509 contract rises then falls as long - profit - taking occurs. Xinjiang's de - stocking and low imports support the price, but the textile off - season, few new orders, and reduced spinning - mill开机率 limit the upside. Technically, it remains strong, and a light - long - position strategy on dips is advised with support at 13695 and resistance at 13920 [7][9]. Sugar - The 2509 contract continues to rise in a volatile manner, boosted by the rebound of ICE raw sugar due to possible lower Brazilian production in June and the domestic consumption peak season. With low inventory and slow imports, the price is supported. Technically, it is strong, and a long - position strategy on dips is continued with support at 5780 [10]. Hog - The 2509 contract drops significantly from a high level. High inventory and reduced demand due to rising temperatures, increased substitute consumption, and school holidays pressure the price. Technically, it turns weak, and long - positions should be closed with support at 13750 and resistance at 13970 [12]. Egg - The 2508 contract opens low and closes high, showing a volatile rebound. Market speculation on lower summer egg - laying rates may reduce supply pressure, but the high egg - laying hen inventory and cautious trading limit the upside. Technically, short - positions should be closed with support at 3500 and resistance at 3574 [14]. Corn - The 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly. Tight supply from low grassroots grain and wheat support are offset by import auction expectations and wheat substitution, resulting in a narrow - range market. A short - term trading strategy is recommended with support at 2370 and resistance at 2386 [17]. Red Date - The 2509 contract falls from a high level. High - temperature weather in Xinjiang may reduce production, but the traditional off - season and increasing inventory lead to a high - level adjustment. Technically, there is callback pressure, and long - positions should be reduced with support at 9500 and resistance at 9700 [18][20]. Apple - The 2510 contract shows a volatile negative trend. The expected production reduction did not materialize, but low inventory supports the price while substitute fruits impact consumption. A short - term trading strategy is recommended with support at 7646 and resistance at 7780 [21].

2025 年 7 月 1 日 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限 豆油：美豆旧作库存偏高，新作面积略减 | 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 | | --- | | lijunyu@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,330 | 涨跌幅 -0.55% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,316 | 涨跌幅 -0.17% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,984 | -0.22% | 7,974 | -0.13% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,415 | -0.54% | 9,446 | 0.33% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,987 | -0.62% | 3,981 | -0.13% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 52.75 | 0.27% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 563,974 ...

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 0.32% to 30.0214 points, with a cumulative decline of 2.26% in June, having reached 31.9429 points before the opening of the US stock market on June 20 [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.61% to $4.09 per bushel, with a cumulative decline of 3.37% in June [1] - CBOT wheat futures dropped by 0.60% to $5.3750 per bushel, with a cumulative decline of 2.31% in June [1] Group 2 - CBOT soybean futures increased by 0.27% to $10.2750 per bushel, with a cumulative increase of 0.15% in June; soybean meal futures rose by 0.35% but saw a cumulative decline of 6.28%, while soybean oil futures increased by 0.27% with a cumulative rise of 10.40% [1] - In June, ICE raw sugar futures fell by 11.99%, and ICE white sugar futures decreased by 1.42% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures declined by 10.70%, while coffee "C" futures dropped by 12.24%, and Robusta coffee futures fell by 17.82% [1] Group 3 - New York cocoa futures decreased by 2.30% to $8,977 per ton, while London cocoa futures fell by 5.69% [1] - ICE cotton futures saw a cumulative increase of 0.34% [1]

Core Viewpoint - CBOT soybean futures have turned lower due to the USDA data indicating an increase in U.S. inventories [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The USDA report shows a rise in U.S. soybean stocks, which has negatively affected market sentiment and led to a decline in futures prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance. Soybean meal rebounds from a low level, but the upward space is limited. Oils and fats fluctuate, with palm oil under pressure. Live pigs fall, sugar continues to rise, and other products also have different market trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Soybean meal rebounds from a low level due to short - covering before the USDA report, but the supply is abundant and the price is still under pressure. Oils and fats fluctuate, with palm oil affected by production growth and export slowdown. Live pigs decline due to weak demand. Sugar continues to rise supported by external market rebound and domestic consumption season [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The 2509 contract rebounds from a low level as shorts cover before the USDA report. However, the domestic supply is abundant, and the futures price is still under pressure. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position strategy is recommended, with support at 2942 and resistance at 2974 [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - The 2509 contract first declines and then rises, waiting for the US soybean planting report. Domestic supply is relatively loose, and the futures price is under pressure. Technically, it turns weak, and a light - short position strategy is recommended, with support at 7920 and resistance at 8012 [3]. 3.2.3 Palm Oil - The 2509 contract first declines and then rises, reducing the decline. Affected by factors such as crude oil and palm oil production and exports, the price is under pressure. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position strategy is recommended, with support at 8256 and resistance at 8380 [6]. 3.2.4 Cotton - The 2509 contract rises and then falls as long - profit taking occurs. Although Xinjiang's supply is tight, the textile market is in a off - season, limiting the price increase. Technically, it is still strong, and a light - long position strategy on dips is recommended, with support at 13695 and resistance at 13920 [7][9]. 3.2.5 Sugar - The 2509 contract continues to rise, supported by the external market rebound and domestic consumption season. The inventory is low, and the import pressure is controllable. Technically, it is strong, and a long - position strategy on dips is recommended, with support at 5780 [10]. 3.2.6 Live Pigs - The 2509 contract drops significantly from a high level due to high inventory and weak demand. Technically, it turns weak, and long - positions should be closed, with support at 13750 and resistance at 13970 [12]. 3.2.7 Eggs - The 2508 contract opens low and closes high, with the market speculating on the decline in summer egg - laying rate. However, the high inventory and cautious purchasing by traders limit the rebound space. Technically, short - positions should be closed, with support at 3500 and resistance at 3574 [14]. 3.2.8 Corn - The 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly due to the lack of market news. Supply is tight, but there are also factors suppressing the price. A short - term trading strategy is recommended, with support at 2370 and resistance at 2386 [17]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - The 2509 contract falls from a high level. High - temperature weather may reduce the yield, but it is the off - season, and the inventory increases slightly. Technically, there is a callback pressure, and long - positions should be reduced, with support at 9500 and resistance at 9700 [18][20]. 3.2.10 Apples - The 2510 contract fluctuates. The previous production reduction expectation fails, and the low inventory supports the price, but the consumption is affected by substitute fruits. A short - term trading strategy is recommended, with support at 7646 and resistance at 7780 [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - For corn, the good condition of US corn and the easing of trade relations between China and the US have led to concerns about long - term import pressure. In the domestic market, the remaining grain in the Northeast is almost exhausted, traders are reluctant to sell due to high costs, and processing enterprises mainly consume inventory. However, the substitution of wheat for corn in feed has reduced corn's feed demand. The corn futures price has recently declined from its high and is in a volatile state, with short - term trading recommended [2]. - For corn starch, due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate remains at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. Supported by reduced supply pressure and firm corn prices, the spot price of corn starch is relatively stable, and industry inventory has been decreasing. Recently, affected by the decline in corn prices, starch prices have also weakened, and short - term trading is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2733 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2378 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. Corn futures positions (active contract) decreased by 3240 hands, and corn starch futures positions (active contract) decreased by 7492 hands [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn starch decreased by 922 hands, and for corn decreased by 36404 hands. The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn decreased by 366 hands, and that of corn starch increased by 948 hands [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 355 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 7.25 cents per bushel. CBOT corn total positions decreased by 57,509 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 23,326 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2432.35 yuan/ton, up 1.37 yuan/ton. The factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2720 yuan/ton, unchanged; in潍坊 is 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The import CIF price of corn is 1899.84 yuan/ton, up 2.57 yuan/ton. The international freight of imported corn is unchanged [2]. - The basis of the corn starch main contract is - 13 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn main contract is 54.35 yuan/ton, up 7.37 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 401.85 million hectares, up 1.82 million hectares; the predicted yield is 131 million tons, up 5 million tons. In Brazil, the sown area is 35.37 million hectares, and the yield is 22.6 million tons, up 0.3 million tons [2]. - In Argentina, the sown area is 7.5 million hectares, and the yield is 53 million tons, up 3 million tons. In China, the sown area is 295 million hectares, up 0.08 million hectares; the yield is 44.3 million tons, down 0.44 million tons [2]. - In Ukraine, the predicted yield of corn is 30.5 million tons, up 3.7 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventories at southern ports decreased by 0.2 million tons to 113.3 million tons; at northern ports decreased by 11 million tons to 371 million tons. Deep - processing corn inventories decreased by 2.5 million tons to 456.7 million tons [2]. - Starch enterprise weekly inventories decreased by 1.9 million tons to 130.9 million tons. The monthly import volume of corn is 19 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27,780 tons, up 4060 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2664 million tons, down 113.2 million tons. The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 105 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Hebei is - 47 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton; in Jilin is - 86 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The sample feed corn inventory days decreased by 0.48 days to 32.59 days. The deep - processing corn consumption increased by 1.3 million tons to 118.92 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 46.18%, up 2.38 percentage points; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 51.15%, down 0.47 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.61%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.67%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for corn is 10.25%, up 0.22 percentage points [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30%, boosting the country's corn - ethanol industry [2]. - As of June 25, the harvest progress of 2024/25 Argentine corn is 55.3%, 5.7 percentage points higher than a week ago [2]. - As of the week of June 22, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn is 70%, lower than the market expectation of 72% [2]. 3.9 Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]