1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector shows a mixed trend. Pig prices are rebounding due to policy - driven capacity reduction and expected demand growth during peak seasons. Jujube prices are rising strongly because of expected production decline and upcoming holiday stocking. Sugar prices continue to fall due to the expected increase in imported sugar. Other products like soybean oil, palm oil, etc., also have their own influencing factors and price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Pig prices are rebounding, supported by policy - driven anti - involution capacity reduction and expected demand growth during the back - to - school season and Mid - Autumn Festival. Jujube prices are rising strongly as high - temperature weather in production areas causes concerns about reduced new jujube production, and the stocking period for Mid - Autumn and National Day festivals has begun. Sugar prices continue to fall to new lows due to the expected increase in imported sugar [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Pig - The main 2511 contract of pigs is oscillating upwards, reaching a one - week high. Although high - temperature weather still weakens consumption demand, with the temperature dropping after the Beginning of Autumn, fresh pork sales are expected to improve. The upcoming back - to - school season will boost centralized consumption, and farmers may hold back pigs for weight gain. The strategy is to hold a light long position in the main 2511 contract and close short positions in the near - month 2509 contract, with support at 13920 and resistance at 14060 [2]. 3.2.2 Jujube - The main 2601 contract of jujube has risen strongly to a new high. High - temperature and dry weather in August (the fruit expansion period) in Xinjiang has raised concerns about reduced yields. Preliminary estimates suggest that new jujube production will be 56 - 62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20 - 25% and a 5 - 10% decrease compared to normal years. The stocking period for Mid - Autumn and National Day festivals has started, which is expected to drive inventory clearance. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 10950 and resistance at 11350 [3]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The main 2509 contract of soybean oil continued to rise to a new high but reduced its gains. Domestic oil mills have high operating rates, resulting in high production and inventory. However, oil mills are actively exporting to relieve supply pressure, and the market still expects a supply gap in the future and an increase in demand in the second half of August. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 8336 and resistance at 8500 [5]. 3.2.4 Sugar - The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to fall to a one - month low, pressured by the expected increase in imported sugar. As the quantity of processed sugar increases, the de - stocking of domestic sugar may slow down, and the start of production in northern sugar mills in September will also add pressure. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 5650 and resistance at 5699 [7]. 3.2.5 Palm Oil - The main 2509 contract of palm oil continued to close down, undergoing high - level adjustment. The market expects an increase in Malaysian palm oil production and weak exports in the August 11 MPOB monthly supply - demand report, with high inventory pressure. The strategy is for short - term trading, with support at 8900 and resistance at 9076 [10]. 3.2.6 Corn - The main 2509 contract of corn continued to rebound from a low level but faced resistance. The continuous auction of imported corn by Sinograin and wheat substitution, along with weak downstream demand, still pressure the corn market. However, low inventory, low imports, and weather risks for new corn support the price rebound. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 2250 and resistance at 2271 [11][13]. 3.2.7 Eggs - The main 2509 contract of eggs continued to rebound from a low level but did not change the downward trend. The high inventory of laying hens (1.292 billion in July, a month - on - month increase of 1.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.14%) and the continuous release of cold - storage eggs exert supply pressure. However, some markets have bottom - fishing sentiment after the price drops. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 3350 and resistance at 3410 [14]. 3.2.8 Bean Meal - The 2509 contract of bean meal first declined and then rose, continuing high - level fluctuations. High domestic oil - mill operating rates in July led to increased bean - meal output and inventory. However, the rising cost of imported soybeans and expected supply shortages in the future support the price. The strategy is for short - term trading, with support at 3006 and resistance at 3050 [16]. 3.2.9 Cotton - The main 2509 contract of cotton oscillated and closed down, showing narrow - range fluctuations. Xinjiang cotton is growing well, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Although commercial inventory is at a low level, the expectation of issuing sliding - scale duty quotas is increasing, and downstream textile demand is weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 13600 and resistance at 13800 [18]. 3.2.10 Apples - The main 2510 contract of apples continued to reverse and rise, entering an upward trend. Apple inventory is low (57.61 million tons as of July 31, 41.05 million tons lower than last year, and 53.39 million tons as of August 6, continuing to decline). The price of early - maturing apples in the west is higher than last year. The strategy is to go long on dips, with support at 7900 and resistance at 8000 [20].

Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the cotton, sugar, and pulp sectors are all neutral [3][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices are restricted in the short - term and will face new pressure in the fourth quarter with new cotton listing [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and face downward pressure in the long - term [4][5] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and terminal demand improvement is limited. Short - term pulp prices are difficult to break away from the bottom [7][8] Summary by Directory Cotton Market News and Key Data - The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,690 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.26%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,083 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,178 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [1] - Vietnamese textile enterprises have low interest in raw material procurement, and some ring - spinning factories plan to reduce the operating rate [1] Market Analysis - Globally, the supply - side weather narrative is insufficient, and the 25/26 season will be supply - loose. US cotton has high sown area, improved drought, and weak export contracts [2] - Domestically, commercial inventory is decreasing fast, but new cotton has a strong yield - increasing expectation. Terminal demand is weak, and the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. New cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate under pressure in the short - term [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,683 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.25%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,000 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,840 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [4] - As of August 1, 2025, the sugarcane planting area in India was about 5.731 million hectares, an increase of about 0.164 million hectares compared to the same period last year. The 2025/26 sugar production is expected to increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons [4] Market Analysis - International raw sugar is under pressure due to Brazil's accelerated crushing in the first half of July and optimistic production estimates in India and Thailand [4] - Domestically, domestic sugar sales progress is fast, but import volume is expected to increase, restricting the upward space. There may be a tight - inventory situation in the fourth quarter, but new - season production increase will bring downward pressure [5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term sugar futures are expected to fluctuate within a range, and long - term prices are expected to decline [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.19%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Russian softwood pulp price was 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - The import wood pulp spot market was mainly stable, with only sporadic price increases [6] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased year - on - year, and domestic pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half. Port inventory is high, and supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption is weak, and domestic demand is also affected by the off - season. Paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious, and terminal demand improvement is limited [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term pulp prices are difficult to break away from the bottom [8]

2025 年 08 月 07 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕调整震荡 豆一：单向拍卖开启，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） DCE豆一2509 | 4118 | -3（-0.07%） | +6（+0.15%） 4124 | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 3026 | -4（-0.13%） | 3013 -14（-0.46%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 985.25 | -5.25（-0.53%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 281.1 | -3.7（-1.30%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2950～3000， 较昨-10至持平； 60， 持平； 8-9月M2509+30/+60， M2601+10/+30/+60/+70， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2680 - 2740. The market is influenced by factors such as good demand, low oil - mill开机, and low inventory. Although China's tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, the lack of tariff on Canadian rapeseed imports limits the upside potential. The market will likely return to range - bound trading due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the impact of soybean meal [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market while demand remains strong. - The slightly reduced annual production of Canadian rapeseed supports the overseas futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing with uncertain results. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: From July 28 to August 6, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 316 - 381. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2509 contract showed a weak oscillation [14][22]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 1.9 million tons, up 25.83% week - on - week from 1.51 million tons last week and down 44.12% year - on - year from 3.4 million tons in the same period last year. The import volume of rapeseed in July was lower than expected, the inventory of oil - mill rapeseed increased slightly, and the inventory of rapeseed meal remained low [9][27][29]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26]. 5. Position Data - Not provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal showed a pattern of rising and then falling. Good demand and technical consolidation, along with low oil - mill开机 and low inventory, supported the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal entered the peak season, and although the import volume of rapeseed increased, the short - term inventory pressure on oil mills was not significant. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 2640, with a basis of - 105, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: As mentioned above, the inventory situation is favorable [9]. - **Market Trend**: The price was above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward [9]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed out [9]. - **Expectation**: In the short term, rapeseed meal rose and then fell due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes. Driven by soybean meal, the price is expected to return to range - bound trading [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: With repeated macro - sentiment, it is advisable to go long at low levels [2][4] - Soybean oil: It will fluctuate at high levels, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade agreement [2][4] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, and the Dalian soybean meal will adjust and fluctuate [2][10] - Soybean: One - way auctions have started, and the market will fluctuate [2][10] - Corn: It will run weakly [2][13] - Sugar: It will trade in a narrow range [2][16] - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [2][21] - Eggs: Market sentiment has been realized [2][27] - Live pigs: Near - term spot pressure persists [2][29] - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [2][35] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,970 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.04%, and night - session closing price was 9,006 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.40%. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,406 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.74%, and night - session closing price was 8,422 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.19% [4] - **Macro and industry news**: From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 19.32% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month. Malaysia's palm oil production in July 2025 was estimated to increase by 9.01% [5][7] - **Trend intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [9] Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental data**: DCE soybean 2509's day - session closing price was 4118 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%, and night - session closing price was 4124 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.15%. DCE soybean meal 2509's day - session closing price was 3026 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.13%, and night - session closing price was 3013 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.46% [10] - **Macro and industry news**: On August 6, CBOT soybeans closed lower, following the decline in the soybean meal market. The US soybean growing area has good weather conditions. The US Department of Agriculture will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. On August 8, 10:30, CNGC plans to auction 32,294 tons of domestic soybeans [10][12] - **Trend intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of 0 [12] Corn - **Fundamental data**: Important spot prices such as Jinzhou's closing price decreased by 10 yuan/ton. C2509's day - session closing price was 2,259 yuan/ton with no change, and night - session closing price was 2,267 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.35% [13] - **Macro and industry news**: Northern corn port prices decreased, and prices in other regions also showed certain changes [14] - **Trend intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [15] Sugar - **Fundamental data**: The raw sugar price was 16.04 cents/pound with a decline of 0.05. The mainstream spot price was 5970 yuan/ton with a decline of 20 [16] - **Macro and industry news**: Brazil's central - southern region's sugarcane crushing progress has accelerated; India's monsoon precipitation is higher than the long - term average. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [16] - **Trend intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [19] Cotton - **Fundamental data**: CF2601's day - session closing price was 13,850 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.22%, and night - session closing price was 13830 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14% [21] - **Macro and industry news**: The domestic cotton spot market has weak trading, and the cotton yarn market is stable. ICE cotton futures first rose and then fell [22] - **Trend intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [25] Eggs - **Fundamental data**: Egg 2509's closing price was 3,378 yuan/500 kg with an increase of 0.99%. Egg 2601's closing price was 3,624 yuan/500 kg with a decline of 0.11% [27] - **Trend intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [27] Live pigs - **Fundamental data**: Henan's spot price was 14,080 yuan/ton with a decline of 100. The closing price of live pig 2509 was 13,810 yuan/ton with a decline of 75 [31] - **Trend intensity**: Live pigs have a trend intensity of - 1 [32] - **Market logic**: The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the price increase was less than expected. The market pressure is large, and the 9 - month contract is expected to be weak. The far - end is supported by macro - sentiment, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread [33] Peanuts - **Fundamental data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,400 yuan/ton with no change. PK510's closing price was 8,092 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.22% [35] - **Spot market focus**: New peanuts in some areas are about to be listed, and the price of old peanuts is stable [36] - **Trend intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends, with some commodities rising and others falling. Factors such as export expectations, demand changes, supply pressures, and seasonal factors influence the prices of different agricultural products [1] 3. Summary by Variety (1) Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main contract 2509 continued to rise strongly to a new high, driven by strong exports and expected demand growth. Indian soybean oil imports in July increased by 38% month - on - month to 495,000 tons. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold a light long position [2] (2) Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2509 continued to fall to a one - month low, pressured by the expectation of increased imported sugar. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold a light short position [3] (3) Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2509 adjusted slightly at a high level. Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to increase, but domestic inventory decreased slightly last week. Technically, it is slightly strong in the short - term, and the strategy is short - term trading [6] (4) Corn - The corn main contract 2509 rebounded at a low level, but the downward trend remained unchanged. Supply increased and demand was weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold a light short position [9] (5) Eggs - The egg main contract 2509 rebounded at a low level, but the downward trend remained. Supply pressure was high due to high laying - hen inventory, and demand was weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold a light short position [10][12] (6) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2509 adjusted slightly. Near - month contracts faced high - inventory pressure, but future supply may be tight. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is short - term trading [13][15] (7) Cotton - The cotton main contract 2509 rebounded slightly and fluctuated at a low level. New - year cotton is expected to be abundant, and demand is weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold a light short position [16] (8) Live Pigs - The live pig market showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The 2509 contract continued to fall, while the 2511 contract rebounded. Consumption is expected to improve in the future. The strategy is to hold a light short position on the 2509 contract [18] (9) Red Dates - The red date main contract 2601 oscillated upwards. New - date production is expected to decrease, and demand is expected to pick up after立秋. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold a light long position [20] (10) Apples - The apple main contract 2510 reversed and rose. Apple inventory is low, and demand is expected to be boosted in the future. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to buy on dips [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean 1: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Bean Meal: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Bean Oil: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Corn: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Live Pigs: One star, representing a slightly bearish view with limited operability on the market [1] - Eggs: One star, representing a slightly bearish view with limited operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - For the overall agricultural products market, various factors such as policy, weather, supply - demand, and tariffs are influencing the prices of different products, and each product has its own short - to - medium - term trends and uncertainties [2][3][4] - The prices of different agricultural products are affected by different factors, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors for each product, such as weather for soybeans, tariffs for soybeans and bean meal, and seasonal demand for oils [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Bean 1 - This Friday, there will be a competitive auction of domestic soybeans with a supply of 32,000 tons. Northeast soybean is in the pod - setting stage, and the weather is favorable for growth. The price difference between Bean 1 and Bean 2 continues to decline, and Bean 1 is weaker than imported soybeans. The decline of imported soybeans has slowed down and is in a low - level consolidation. Future attention should be paid to domestic soybean weather and policy [2] Soybeans & Bean Meal - The excellent rate of US soybeans is at a high level in the same period of history. The weather in the next two weeks in the US soybean - producing areas is normal, and US soybeans are oscillating weakly. In China, Brazilian soybeans continue to arrive at ports, the oil mill crushing rate is stable, and the bean meal inventory has reached a high level this year. Before the tariff issue is clear, the bean meal market is in a state of oscillation [3] Bean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic bean oil is strong today, stronger than palm oil. There are uncertainties in the long - term supply of bean oil due to tariffs, and it is in the demand peak season in the fourth quarter. The medium - term US bean oil is likely to be oscillating neutral or slightly strong. The price difference between foreign and domestic bean oil may converge to zero or negative values, mainly through domestic price increases. A long - position strategy on dips is maintained for bean oil and palm oil, and palm oil may face a production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal is oscillating, with a slight increase in rapeseed meal and a slight decline in rapeseed oil. The Canadian rapeseed futures price continues to decline due to favorable weather. The domestic rapeseed inventory is decreasing, and the import situation has not improved. The rapeseed meal benefits from the seasonal peak of aquatic feed. The short - term trend of rapeseed products is still oscillating, and attention should be paid to China - Canada economic and trade relations and domestic inventory changes [6] Corn - As of August 3, the excellent rate of US corn is 73%, and the price is still falling. In China, the auction of imported corn has been carried out 11 times since July, with a total of about 268,800 tons, and the transaction rate has been decreasing. Another auction of 19,930 tons will be held on August 8. The continuous supply of grain sources has affected market expectations, and the Dalian corn futures are weak. The new - season corn planting area may expand, and there is a high probability of a bumper harvest. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has declined slightly and remains weak. Except for the 09 contract, other far - month contracts have rebounded slightly with increasing positions. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in August has increased by 6.6% month - on - month, and the slaughter volume in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. The long - term focus is on when the industry's capacity reduction will be realized [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is weak, and most provinces are still experiencing price declines. The 09 contract on the futures market has rebounded with significant position reduction as short - sellers take profits. Future attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking demand before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day and the impact of cold - storage eggs on the spot market. The egg price needs to decline further to achieve in - depth capacity reduction. The price in the first half of next year is more supported, and the off - season contracts in the second half of this year are relatively weak, suggesting a reverse spread strategy on the futures market [9]

芝商所官网数据显示，截至8月1日当周，CBOT大豆可交割库存为686.9万蒲式耳，较此前一周的694.7 万蒲式耳减少1.12%，较上年同期的269.7万蒲式耳增加154.69%。 监测显示，8月1日，全国主要油厂进口大豆库存718万吨，周环比上升6万吨，月环比上升19万吨，同比 减少68万吨，较过去三年均值上升84万吨。 Safras&Mercado称，巴西2025/26年度大豆销售量达到预期产量的16.8%，上年同期为22.5%；2024/25年 度大豆销售量达到预期产量的78.4%，上年同期为82.2%。 8月6日，国内期市油脂油料板块涨跌不一。其中，豆二期货呈现震荡上行走势，截至收盘，主力合约报 3729.00元/吨，小幅上涨0.76%。 【宏观消息速递】 机构观点：预计豆二短期震荡 新世纪期货研报：种植成本支撑美豆，美中西部天气良好，大豆优良率虽下滑但仍居高位，压力美豆， 南美新豆出口持续，预计三季度月均约1000万吨大豆到港，油厂开工率高位，部分油厂豆粕胀库压力， 港口大豆库存持续回升，供应充裕，预计豆二短期震荡，关注美豆天气、大豆到港况。 据欧盟委员会，截至8月3日，欧盟2025/26年度大豆进 ...

Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][6][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices face constraints in the short - term and new pressure in the fourth quarter [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and face downward pressure in the long - term [5][6] - The pulp market has supply pressure and limited demand improvement. Short - term pulp prices may stay at the bottom [8] Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,655 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,081 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The national average price was 15,169 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton [1] - As of August 3, the budding rate of US cotton was 87%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 2 points slower than the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 points slower than last year and 3 points slower than the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 5%, 2 points slower than last year and 1 point slower than the five - year average. The good - quality rate was 55%, 10 points higher than last year and 8 points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International cotton prices lack obvious drivers and are expected to fluctuate with macro - market sentiment. Domestic cotton prices face constraints due to slow inventory drawdown, low import in the third quarter, and weak terminal demand. In the fourth quarter, new cotton listing will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy and treat Zhengzhou cotton as under pressure and in a volatile pattern in the short - term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,697 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,865 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Brazil's 2025 sugarcane planting area is expected to be 9.1685 million hectares, down 0.6% from last month's estimate and 0.2% from 2024. The production is estimated to be 693 million tons, down 0.1% from last month's estimate and 1.9% from 2024 [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar is in a weak - volatile pattern due to Brazil's accelerated crushing and good supply prospects. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in a range in the short - term and may have a tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but face downward pressure in the long - term [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy, expect short - term range - bound fluctuations and a long - term bearish trend [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,160 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,810 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,200 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market continued to decline, with prices of some grades in different regions falling [7] Market Analysis - The pulp market has supply pressure due to high port inventory and expected production. Demand is weak both globally and domestically, with limited improvement expected in the second half of the year [8] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy, expect short - term pulp prices to stay at the bottom [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating Bullish [7] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [8] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating Bearish [9] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [10] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [13] - Cotton: Oscillating [14] - Sugar: Oscillating [15] - Pulp: Oscillating [16] - Logs: Oscillating Bearish [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors, and it is likely to operate strongly in the near future under the stabilization of market sentiment [2][3][7]. - The protein meal market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with the far - month contracts expected to strengthen [8]. - The corn/starch market is currently in a weak state, with short - term uncertainties in old crop de - stocking and a downward trend after new crop listing [9][10]. - The live pig market presents a situation of "weak reality + strong expectation", with high inventory pressure in the short - term and potential supply reduction in the long - term [10]. - The natural rubber market rebounds due to some speculative sentiment, and the short - term performance is expected to follow the macro - wide fluctuations [10][12]. - The synthetic rubber market is supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, and it is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [13]. - The cotton market returns to fundamental trading, with the price expected to oscillate within a certain range [14]. - The sugar market is under downward pressure due to the increasing supply pressure [15]. - The pulp market remains weak, and the strategy is to pay attention to the reverse spread during the decline [16]. - The log market has limited fundamental changes and is mainly treated within a range [17][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Affected by factors such as short - covering, US policy uncertainty, OPEC+ production increase, good growth of US soybeans, and the production and inventory situation of palm oil and rapeseed oil [2][7]. - **Outlook**: It is likely to operate strongly in the near future, and attention should be paid to the performance of upper technical resistance [3][7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the good rate of US soybeans is 69%, and there are still weather risks. Domestically, the short - term supply is sufficient, and there may be a supply gap in the long - term [8]. - **Outlook**: The spot and basis may oscillate at a low level, and the far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [8]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **Logic**: The supply side has inventory digestion and import auction issues, and the demand side has low acceptance of high - priced grains. The new crop situation is normal [9][10]. - **Outlook**: There are uncertainties in short - term old crop de - stocking, and there is a downward trend after new crop listing [10]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Logic**: The supply is strong in the short, medium, and long - term, and the demand is weak. The policy has a guiding effect on capacity reduction [10]. - **Outlook**: The market presents a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, and attention should be paid to reverse spread strategies [10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: Driven by some speculative sentiment, the short - term fundamentals have no major contradictions [10][12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term performance follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, the raw material market is in a weak downward trend [13]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [13]. 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level. The price oscillates within a certain range [14]. - **Outlook**: The single - side oscillates, and the range operation is recommended. The reverse spread of the monthly difference is stopped profit at the stage [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the short - term supply pressure increases [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the long - term, and the short - term strategy is to short on rebounds [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The supply pressure of hardwood pulp is high, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [16]. - **Outlook**: The recent fluctuations follow the macro - situation, and it is expected to oscillate widely [16]. 3.10 Logs - **Logic**: The cost increases, the supply pressure eases, and there are both long and short factors in the market [17][18]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals change little, and it is mainly operated within the range of 800 - 850 [18].