Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - With the gradual establishment of downstream inventory of domestic soybeans, the subsequent inventory accumulation speed of domestic soybeans may accelerate under the expectation of high - opening and high - pressing of oil mills, and the performance of 000 is expected to be volatile. - There is an expectation of rising import costs for soybean meal in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the November and January contracts. Also, pay attention to the results of the USDA planting area report at the end of June [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On June 27, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian was - 26, down 70; in Tianjin, it was - 66, down 30; in Rizhao, it was - 106, down 10. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang was - 126, down 50 [6]. - The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 29, down 9. The M9 - 1 spread was - 41, up 6 [6]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 387, and the price difference between the main contracts was 270, down 20 [7]. Supply Situation - In China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons in June, July, and August. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans is tightening, and the good - excellent rate of US soybeans has declined to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the US in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean growth [7]. Demand Situation - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the inventory of poultry remains at a high level. The cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high, and the proportion of feed addition has increased. The提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein [7]. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, domestic soybean and soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, soybean inventory is at a high level in the same period of history, while soybean meal inventory is still at a low level in the same period of history, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal continue to rise [8].

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 30 日） 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：目前豆粕交易逻辑并未改变，来自于原料大豆进口成本的变化，令豆粕期价跟随外盘美豆波动 节奏。在国内油厂远期买船依旧谨慎的背景下，下游市场对远期供应收紧的预期支撑了采购需求。近期油 厂开工率持续攀升，豆粕提货量高位回落，油厂豆粕库存连续 8 周缓慢回升，但仍处于偏低水平。短期而 言，上下库存均在增加，对豆粕价格构成一定压力。令豆粕期价或转为区间震荡运行。 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收 ...

油料日报 | 2025-06-27 大豆供应增量终端消费较弱，价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4150.00元/吨，较前日变化-19.00元/吨，幅度-0.46%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07+130，较前日变化+119，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周三，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货连续第四日下跌，其中基准期约收低1.85%，主要原因 是美国中西部地区天气转好，关键报告出台前交易商选择避险结利。截至收盘，大豆期货下跌14.75美分到21.50美 分不等，其中7月期约下跌21.50美分，报收1025.25美分/蒲;8月期约下跌20.75美分，报收1029.50美分/蒲;11月期约 下跌18.50美分，报收1018.50美分/蒲。6月27日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.14 元/斤，较昨日涨0.05元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日涨 0.04元/斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日涨0.04元/斤；黑龙 江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一 ...

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 6 月 27 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in the prices of rapeseed meal and soybean meal is attributed to multiple factors, including favorable weather conditions in the U.S. affecting soybean growth, increased domestic supply pressures, and slow inventory depletion of rapeseed meal [8]. Group 1: External Market Influences - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures have fallen for four consecutive days, with the benchmark contract down approximately 1.85% due to improved weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest, which are beneficial for crop growth [3]. - Analysts indicate that the weather forecast has alleviated previous concerns about high temperatures and dry conditions affecting soybean growth, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean prices [3]. - The expectation of abundant soybean supply from South America further supports the global soybean supply outlook, contributing to the downward pressure on prices [3]. Group 2: Domestic Supply Dynamics - Domestic soybean imports are increasing, with port inventories reported at 5.887 million tons as of June 23, 2025, down from 5.906 million tons on June 16, indicating a slight decrease but still high supply expectations [4]. - The supply pressure on soybean meal is primarily due to the high operating rates of oil mills and increased crushing volumes, which are expected to continue affecting the market negatively [4][5]. - Despite good demand from the livestock sector, the oversupply situation in the short term is unlikely to change, leading to continued pressure on soybean meal prices [5]. Group 3: Rapeseed Meal Market Conditions - The depletion of rapeseed meal inventories is slow, with downstream users perceiving rapeseed meal as lacking cost-effectiveness [6]. - The approval of imports from Kazakhstan is expected to alleviate some supply concerns for rapeseed meal, but it may also exert downward pressure on prices [6]. - The ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs between China and Canada are progressing slowly, which may impact the rapeseed meal market [6]. Group 4: Oil and Fat Market Influences - CBOT soybean oil futures have also declined, influenced by improved weather conditions and uncertainties surrounding biofuel policies [7]. - Changes in Brazil's energy policy, which will increase the blending ratios of ethanol and biodiesel, are expected to boost domestic consumption of corn and soybean oil [7]. - The current market dynamics suggest that the oilseed market is experiencing a shift, which may have a knock-on effect on meal prices [7]. Group 5: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The outlook for soybean and rapeseed meal prices remains bearish due to a combination of international market conditions, domestic supply pressures, and slow inventory depletion [8]. - Market participants are advised to monitor key factors such as U.S. Department of Agriculture reports, weather conditions in soybean-producing regions, and developments in China-Canada trade relations [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Soybean (Bean 1), Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn [1] - **Sell (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Pigs, Eggs [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. Short - term market trends are affected by factors such as weather, planting area reports, and policy changes, while long - term trends are influenced by supply - demand relationships and bio - diesel development [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean (Bean 1) - Domestic soybeans are in a downward trend. U.S. soybeans are weak due to favorable short - term weather and market waiting for the planting area report. There is little residual grain at the grass - roots level of domestic soybeans, and the policy side is conducting auctions. Short - term focus is on the U.S. soybean area report and weather [2] 3.2 Soybean & Soybean Meal - Soybean meal futures fell 2.43% today. Before the U.S. Department of Agriculture's planting area report on July 1, institutions predict an average soybean planting area of 83.655 million acres. U.S. weather is favorable for soybean growth. Domestic spot prices are falling, and oil mill soybean meal inventories are increasing. The soybean meal market is currently in a volatile state [3] 3.3 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - U.S. soybeans are weak. Brazil will raise the biodiesel blending ratio to 15% from August 1. The decline of soybean and palm oil has slowed. In the long - term, a long - position strategy for vegetable oils is recommended, waiting for the U.S. soybean planting area report [4] 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal futures continue to be weak. The weather in North American oilseed areas is good. The inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil in oil mills is low, but the East China inventory is sufficient. A short - position strategy for rapeseed products is recommended [6] 3.5 Corn - Dalian corn futures are fluctuating weakly. There are policies on wheat prices, and the expected state reserve auction suppresses the increase of corn prices. The inventory situation varies between north and south ports. Corn futures are expected to be volatile [7] 3.6 Live Pigs - The main contract of live pig futures rebounds slightly, and the far - month contract is relatively weak. Spot prices are rising slightly. In the medium - term, the pressure of pig supply is large, and the long - term focus is on policy and production capacity inflection points [8] 3.7 Eggs - The main contract of egg futures shows a doji pattern. Spot prices are stable in some areas and slightly lower in others. Egg production capacity is still being released, and a short - position strategy for egg futures is recommended [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][4][7] 2. Core Views - **Cotton**: The international market shows a decrease in global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, with a decline in ending stocks. US cotton has seen improved drought conditions but a worsening in seedling conditions. Domestically, commercial cotton inventories are rapidly decreasing, but new - year planting area is increasing, and demand is entering the off - season [2] - **Sugar**: The Brazilian new - season supply is expected to increase, and the production in India and Thailand in the Northern Hemisphere is also expected to rise. The supply pressure is already reflected. Zhengzhou sugar's domestic sales progress is fast, and it may follow the external market to rebound slightly, but the increase in imports will suppress the rebound space [4] - **Pulp**: The supply of pulp is abundant, with high port inventories. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and downstream demand is weak. Although the delivery rules have changed, the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,645 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.26%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,832 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton. As of June 22, 2025, India's weekly cotton market volume was 174,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 501%, and the cumulative market volume in the 2024/25 season was 4.9075 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [1] - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the USDA report adjusted down global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, and ending stocks decreased. US cotton has improved drought but worsened seedling conditions. Domestically, commercial inventories are rapidly decreasing, but new - year planting area is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral. The tariff policy is uncertain, and the market is affected by weather. There is a strong expectation of a domestic cotton harvest in the new year, and demand is weakening [2] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5757 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton (+0.82%). The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6070 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. It is predicted that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season will be 590 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%, but the sugar production is expected to reach 41.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7% [2][3] - **Market Analysis**: The Brazilian new - season supply is expected to increase, and the production in India and Thailand in the Northern Hemisphere is also expected to rise. The supply pressure is already reflected. Zhengzhou sugar's domestic sales progress is fast, and it may follow the external market to rebound slightly, but the increase in imports will suppress the rebound space [4] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar mainly follows the trend of raw sugar. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production estimate and domestic import rhythm [4] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5070 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton (-1.29%). The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The import pulp spot market price continued to decline [5] - **Market Analysis**: The suspension of the "Bratsk" brand pulp for delivery has intensified market fluctuations, but the pressure on the near - month contract from old "Bratsk" pulp remains. The supply is abundant, with high port inventories, and demand is in the seasonal off - season, and downstream demand is weak [6] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Although the delivery rules have changed, the 09 contract is still mainly priced by "Bratsk" and "Ural" pulp. The industry lacks positive drivers, and the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [7]

2025年06月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：巴西将开始B15，利好国际豆油 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆继续收跌，连粕偏弱运行 | 4 | | 豆一：豆类市场氛围偏空，盘面调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡调整 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 8 | | 棉花：震荡偏强 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：逐步布局远月空单 | 11 | | 生猪：震荡调整 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 26 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 豆油：巴西将开始 B15，利好国际豆油 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,34 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/26 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价窄幅震荡，美油涨 0.9%，报 64.94 美元/桶。美国上周 EIA 原油库 存超预期减少 583.6 万桶。光大期货指出，油价短期或维持区间震荡，需关注 欧佩克+产量政策变化。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.37%报 3346.4 美元/盎司， 白银涨 1.35%。美联储拟放宽银行杠杆率要求，同时重申通胀风险，对贵金属 形成双向影响。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME 期锡涨 2.5%，期锌、期镍涨 1%，期铜涨 0.6%。 高盛预计，由于关税导致美国以外市场铜库存减少，以及中国经济活动有韧性， 铜价将在 8 月升至 2025 年高点。 4. 世界钢铁协会发布数据显示，5 月份，全球 70 个纳入统计国家/地区的粗钢 产量为 1.588 亿吨，同比下降 3.8%。中国粗钢产量为 8655 万吨，同比下降 6.9%； 印度粗钢产量为 1350 万吨，同比提高 9.7%。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the stabilization of international oil prices and a slight increase in palm oil futures, domestic oilseed contracts have recorded a third consecutive day of decline, indicating ongoing market pressures and the need to monitor domestic canola purchases and trade relations with Canada [1][4]. Group 1: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1-25 increased by 6.63% to 1,057,466 tons compared to the same period last month, indicating a potential easing of inventory pressure [1]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) forecasts a 4.55% decrease in palm oil production for June 1-20, with significant regional variations in output [2]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in April fell to 1.78 million tons, down from 2.18 million tons year-on-year, while production increased slightly to 4.48 million tons [2]. Group 2: Indian Market Impact - India canceled a 65,000-ton palm oil order due to rising prices, which may disrupt the previously strong purchasing momentum following a reduction in import taxes [3]. - India's June soybean imports are expected to drop by 18% to 325,000 tons, the lowest level in four months, due to port congestion affecting delivery schedules [3]. Group 3: Domestic Oilseed Supply and Demand - Domestic oilseed inventories have risen, with total commercial stocks reaching 2.06 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [4]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume is projected to reach 9.5 million tons for June, supported by high supply levels [5]. - The current oversupply of soybeans is exerting downward pressure on soybean oil prices, while palm oil inventories are also increasing due to higher import volumes [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market is currently focused on the tight canola inventory situation and the impact of weather on crop growth, with expectations of increased volatility in the near term [6]. - The recent decline in crude oil prices has negatively affected oilseed performance, leading to expectations of weak fluctuations in the short term [7].