会议提到，近年来我国生猪稳产保供能力持续增强，种源供给能力明显提升，生物安全防控有效落实， 生产效率和产业素质不断提升。去年下半年以来，及时开展逆周期调节，引导各方面有序调减生猪产 能，取得了明显成效。要求进一步完善有关政策举措，坚决防止出现生产大起大落、价格大涨大跌。 7月23日，国内期货市场生猪主力合约2509一度大涨至15150元/吨，刷新年内高点。 智通财经APP获悉，7月23日，农业农村部召开推动生猪产业高质量发展座谈会。会议指出，当前，生 猪产业面临产能阶段性偏高、生产和价格波动风险大等问题，要严格落实产能调控举措，合理淘汰能繁 母猪，适当调减能繁母猪存栏，减少二次育肥，控制肥猪出栏体重，严控新增产能。开源证券指，随着 2025Q3生猪供给收缩已至，猪价中枢有望逐月上移。 开源证券发布研报称，7月本身已处于供给收缩窗口核心时段，散户当前大猪超卖后市低价接猪企图或 落空并成为进一步助推猪价上行的力量。 国金证券发布研报称，当下猪价表现下成本领先的头部养殖企业生猪盈利超200元/头，预计头部企业在 上半年有望实现较好盈利，而在供给压力持续后移的背景下，下半年猪价或存在一定压力，若行业产能 有序调控，中 ...

Group 1 - The recent surge in commodity futures prices has attracted widespread market attention, with polysilicon contracts reaching over 50,000 yuan/ton, marking a more than 70% increase from late June [1] - Coking coal contracts also showed strong performance, closing at over 1,100 yuan/ton, reflecting a rebound of over 50% from early June [1] - Other commodities such as industrial silicon and coke have also seen significant price increases, with industrial silicon surpassing 10,000 yuan/ton, a nearly 50% rise since early June [2] Group 2 - The central government's recent meeting emphasized addressing key challenges, including regulating low-price competition and promoting integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [2] - Analysts attribute the commodity price surge to a combination of economic recovery expectations, supply rigidity, and liquidity premiums, with both the US and China manufacturing PMIs returning to expansion territory [2] - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in the second half of 2025, driven by reduced capital expenditure and a resurgence in domestic demand [3] Group 3 - Companies with market capitalizations below 10 billion yuan and institutional ratings include those in the pig farming, coal, glass, and organic silicon sectors [3] - Yaxing Chemical, with a market cap of approximately 2.644 billion yuan, specializes in chlorinated polyethylene and other chemical products [4] - Dongrui Co., a modern agricultural enterprise, operates a full industry chain in pig farming, while Beibo Co. focuses on glass deep processing equipment [4]

Summary of Agricultural Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the agricultural industry, specifically the pig farming sector, in the context of anti-involution policies and supply-side reforms aimed at stabilizing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Government Policies**: The government has implemented several measures to control pig farming, including banning the addition of breeding sows, reducing slaughter weights, strict regulation of secondary fattening, and stabilizing pig prices. These measures aim to control supply and boost CPI, which has been negative from February to May 2025 [1][2][5]. - **Supply-Side Reform**: The current supply-side reform is compared to the 2016-2017 reforms, with similarities in being at a late stage of capacity reduction. However, the current interventions are described as more moderate, with unclear demand signals, requiring observation until the end of 2025 or early 2026 [1][4][6]. - **Capacity Control Stages**: The capacity control is divided into three stages: limiting production for large farming enterprises, restricting financing for medium-sized farms, and environmental checks for small farms. The goal is to maintain stable industry capacity with less social impact compared to previous reforms [1][7]. - **Market Outlook**: If the policy measures do not yield results within the next six months to a year, further interventions may be necessary. The stock prices in the sector are expected to rise steadily, with a focus on leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [1][8]. - **Profitability of Leading Companies**: Muyuan Foods is expected to transition from a cyclical growth stock to a cyclical value stock, achieving stable profits and dividends annually. The company is projected to reach a market value of 400 billion yuan based on a 20 billion yuan dividend reference [3][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Historical Context**: Previous agricultural supply-side reforms have significantly impacted the industry, with a notable decline in breeding sow numbers from 50 million in 2013 to approximately 33-34 million in mid-2018. The current reforms are seen as less drastic, aiming for stability rather than forced closures of farms [7]. - **Investment Logic Shift**: The investment logic in the agricultural sector is shifting from speculative trading to value investing, focusing on companies with low costs and strong profitability. This strategy is expected to benefit from policy catalysts and sustained market conditions [12]. - **Future Prospects**: The pig farming industry is viewed as having a promising future, with a favorable supply-demand balance and potential for bottom-fishing opportunities. Investors are encouraged to focus on leading companies in the sector to capitalize on upcoming market trends [13]. Recommended Companies - **Key Companies to Watch**: The focus is on Muyuan Foods and DeKang Agriculture in the A-share and Hong Kong markets, respectively. DeKang is noted for its technological advancements and cost efficiency, with projections for significant production and profitability in 2026 [11]. Other companies of interest include Wens Foodstuffs, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture, which also exhibit strong profitability [11].

Summary of Conference Call on Swine and Livestock Industry Industry Overview - The swine industry is experiencing intensified competition, leading to increased trial and error costs for companies, resulting in some reducing production or exiting the market [1][2] - The overall market is characterized by a "short bull, long bear" cycle, with the agricultural sector underperforming in the secondary market [1][2] Key Insights and Arguments - Pork price fluctuations significantly impact the Consumer Price Index (CPI), despite pork's low share (1.2%-1.5%) in CPI, due to its strong cyclicality and amplification effects [1][3] - In the first half of 2025, pork prices are expected to decline by 20% quarter-on-quarter, with potential further decreases in the second half if no policy interventions occur, affecting CPI negatively [1][4] - Approximately one-third of breeding entities are currently operating at a loss [1][4] Policy Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is leading a multi-ministerial effort to balance swine supply and demand, aiming to reduce the number of breeding sows to 39.5 million to reverse the cycle and increase prices [1][5] - Initial policy execution has been weak, with some leading companies expanding against the trend, prompting regulatory bodies to strengthen credit policies to maintain a price floor of 14 yuan/kg [1][6] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - **Muyuan Foods**: Noted for its significant cost advantage and potential for profit release, with projections of achieving over 30 billion yuan in profits if costs drop to 11 yuan/kg by 2026 [1][8] - **Bangji and Dekang**: Innovative companies focusing on empowering farmers and achieving efficient expansion through light-asset models [1][8] Livestock Industry Trends - The beef industry is currently in a deep loss phase, but with reduced imports due to anti-dumping investigations, a capacity clearance is expected [3][10] - The beef cycle is similar to the swine cycle, with low production rates and slow recovery in capacity expected [3][10] Future Prospects for Dairy and Beef Companies - Companies like **Yuran** and **Shengmu** are expected to benefit from the cyclical recovery in both beef and dairy markets, with stable operations and prices above industry averages [3][11] - Profit projections for Yuran are estimated at 2.8 to 4 billion yuan by 2026, while Shengmu is expected to reach 600 million to 1 billion yuan [3][13] Overall Investment Strategy - The livestock sector, including swine, beef, and dairy, presents significant investment potential. Companies like Yuran and Shengmu are recommended for their dual-benefit logic and stable operational status [3][14] - Continuous monitoring of policy changes and anti-dumping investigations is advised to adjust investment strategies accordingly [3][14]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the need to prevent significant fluctuations in production and sharp declines in pork prices while promoting high-quality development in the pig industry [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The pig production capacity in China has been steadily improving, with enhanced breeding source supply and effective biosecurity measures [1] - Since May of the previous year, pig farming has been profitable for 14 consecutive months, indicating a generally favorable production situation [1] Group 2: Policy and Regulation - The Ministry has implemented counter-cyclical adjustments to guide the orderly reduction of pig production capacity, achieving notable results [1] - Further policy measures are required to eliminate deep-seated constraints on the high-quality development of the pig industry and to enhance its overall quality and competitiveness [1]

金十期货7月23日讯，7月23日，农业农村部召开推动生猪产业高质量发展座谈会，部党组书记、部长韩 俊主持会议并讲话。会议强调，要认真贯彻习近平总书记重要指示精神，落实党中央、国务院决策部 署，进一步强化市场引导和政策支持，健全生猪产能综合调控机制，促进生猪市场稳定运行，加快推进 生猪产业转型升级，推动生猪产业稳定健康发展。韩俊指出，生猪产业是关系国计民生的重要产业，猪 肉是城乡居民重要的"菜篮子"产品。要稳住生猪和猪肉价格，切实做好稳产保供各项工作。 相关链接 农业农村部：持续抓好产能调控，推进生猪产业稳定健康发展 ...

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [8] Core Viewpoints - The June breeding sow inventory showed a slight increase, with a total of 40.43 million sows, which is 103.7% of the normal holding capacity of 39 million sows, indicating that production capacity is still within the green and reasonable control area [5][12][31] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will focus on regulating pig production capacity and stabilizing production and prices to promote stable development in pig production [5][12] - The report recommends excellent breeding companies with significant cost advantages and high output realization rates, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, as well as post-cycle animal health and feed sectors like Haida Group [5][12][32] Summary by Sections 1. June Breeding Sow Inventory Changes - The breeding sow inventory in June showed a slight increase, with a 0.8% decrease in the number of pigs over five months old, suggesting a reduction in pig output in July and August, which is beneficial for stabilizing pig prices and farming profitability [5][16] - The June breeding sow inventory from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs indicates a slight increase, with data showing a 0.22% increase in sample 1 and a 0.12% increase in sample 2 [10][11][18] 2. Future Pig Price Trends and Capacity Changes - The report anticipates that pig prices will face downward pressure in 2025 due to a relatively loose supply situation, with an expected increase in pig output until at least September 2025 [30][31] - The breeding sow inventory is expected to continue to decrease, with the profitability of breeding operations declining, leading to a potential reduction in production capacity [31][32] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the recommendation of low-cost pig farming enterprises, highlighting the expected increase in breeding sow inventory and production efficiency, while also noting the anticipated pressure on pig prices in 2025 [12][32][33]

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reported a slight decrease in profits for pig farming, with average profit per head falling below 50 yuan [1] Price Trends - As of the third week of July 2025, the national pig market price was 14.96 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a decrease of 0.53% compared to previous periods [1] - The national feed-to-pig price ratio was recorded at 5.50, which represents a week-on-week decline of 0.54% [1] Profitability Analysis - Based on current prices and costs, the average profit for pig farming under the current piglet fattening model is estimated to be 48.96 yuan per head [1]

Core Insights - The profitability of pig farming has slightly decreased, with average profit per head falling below 50 yuan [1] - Increased supply from active market participation by farmers contrasts with reduced demand due to high temperatures and school holidays [1] - The national average pig price has dropped to 14.96 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.53% from previous periods [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Farmers are more willing to sell, leading to an increase in supply [1] - Downstream demand is negatively impacted by seasonal factors, resulting in an oversupply situation [1] Price and Profitability Metrics - The national pig feed-to-pig price ratio is reported at 5.50, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 0.54% [1] - Current calculations indicate that the average profit for pig farming under the current pricing and cost structure is approximately 48.96 yuan per head [1]

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In late July, as group pig sales recover and demand is in the off - season, pig prices may continue to face pressure. In the medium to long term, pig supply will increase slightly, but the anti - involution initiative and strengthened environmental protection are beneficial to the long - term performance of pig prices, especially for far - month contracts [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 22nd, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out, recovered, and fluctuated higher, closing up. The highest was 14,415 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,285 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,380 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 912 lots to 167,061 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: On the 22nd, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly expanded, the utilization rate of pigsties reached a high level, and secondary fattening was mainly on the sidelines. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume remained low. On July 22, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 133,600 heads, a decrease of 15,000 heads from the previous day and the same as a week ago [9]. - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi data, the planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19% compared with June. Currently, the slaughter progress of farmers has recovered, the enthusiasm for slaughter has increased compared with the first half of the month, the slaughter weight has slightly decreased, and the utilization rate of pigsties for secondary fattening is relatively high, with more secondary - fattened pigs yet to be slaughtered [9]. 2. Industry News - As of July 18, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 111 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 54 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 126 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 82 yuan/head [10][12]. 3. Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 17 was 542 yuan/head, an increase of 1 yuan/head from the previous week [21]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads (1.72%). From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month - on - month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [21]. - As of the week of July 17, the average slaughter weight of national pigs was 128.83 kg, a decrease of 0.2 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [21].