文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 韩港（微信 HGK1366） 2&3 ）从就业 & 工资来看 ，结合量（以就业增速衡量）价（以工资增速变化衡量）两个维度， 2024 年， 建筑业或是"缩量保价"，即农民工就业人数减少、但工资增速提升。制造业是"量价齐升"，农民工就业人数 增长、同时工资增速提升，后续吸纳就业或仍有空间。交运仓储、批发零售、住宿餐饮则是"量升价落"， 后续吸纳就业或面临量与价的抉择。 4 ）从消费结构看 ，此前农民工消费结构更侧重商品消费，但从近期情况看，其教育、住房、娱乐等服务 消费或在快速增长，消费结构有望向服务倾斜。 5 ）从经济体感看， 我们计算农民工视角下的 GDP 增速。 2020-2022 年该增速持续高于官方 GDP 增速， 对应该时期消费 K 型复苏。 2023-2024 年农民工视角下的 GDP 增速持续高于官方 GDP 增速，对应该时期 消费下沉。而从 2025 年一季度看，农民工视角下的 GDP 与官方 GDP 之间的差距已基本弥合，意味着此 前的消费 K 型复苏、 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ❖ 一、人流：主要流向东部，但规模已不及 2019 年 农民工从哪里来，到哪里去？2024 年，农民工总数为 3.0 亿人，总量创新高， 占到我国就业总人数的 41%。从输出地看，农民工主要来自东部、中部地区， 分别为 1.1、1.0 亿人，占到 35%、33%。而输入地主要集中在东部，为 1.5 亿 人、占比 51%。 短期看，农民工仍在向东部流动。使用各地区农民工输入数-输出数，观察农 民工的净流动情况。2024 年农民工净流入集中在东部、其他地区（中国港澳 台地区及海外），2024 年分别净流入 4834、89 万人，同比增长 41、19 万人。 【宏观快评】 农民工群体的五点观察 ❖ 核心观点 2024 年农民工群体已达 3 亿人，创历史新高，本文关注农民工的近况。 1）从人口流动来看，2024 年农民工仍主要流向东部地区，但对比 2019 年， 净流入规模已减少约 450 万人。 2&3）从就业&工资来看，结合量（以就业增速衡量）价（以工资增速变化衡 量）两个维度，2024 年，建筑业或是"缩量保价"，即农民工就业人数减少、 但工资增速提升。制造业是"量价齐升"，农 ...

金十图示：2025年05月12日（周一）富时中国A50指数成分股今日收盘行情一览：券商、保险股走高，酿酒股飘红 保险 队 中国人保 中国太保 中国平安 咖啡 3307.95亿市值 3091.98亿市值 9578.58亿市值 8.88亿成交额 30.28亿成交额 5.02亿成交额 32.14 52.60 7.48 +0.31(+0.97%) +0.85(+1.64%) +0.03(+0.40%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 20155.69亿市值 2513.86亿市值 5161.37亿市值 39.68亿成交额 21.82亿成交额 7.49亿成交额 132.97 1604.50 206.06 +2.74(+1.35%) +13.32(+0.84%) +1.39(+1.06%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2332.64亿市值 2819.50亿市值 3340.07亿市值 17.35亿成交额 42.92亿成交额 16.42亿成交额 436.68 675.40 143.70 -24.60(-3.51%) -4.17(-0.95%) -0.18(-0.13%) 汽车整车 铁路公路 比亚迪 ...

金十图示：2025年05月12日（周一）富时中国A50指数成分股午盘收盘行情一览：银行、保险股走势分化，半导体板块走软 长江电力 中国核电 东方财富 8 7213.23亿市值 1929.28亿市值 3362.32亿市值 9.81亿成交额 4.59亿成交额 49.78亿成交额 29.48 9.38 21.30 -0.07(-0.24%) +0.01(+0.11%) +0.47(+2.26%) 证券 食品饮料 中信证券 国泰海通 海天味业 胸更 3877.06亿市值 3088.72亿市值 2374.93亿市值 19.62亿成交额 5.89亿成交额 2.23亿成交额 17.52 42.71 26.16 +0.61(+2.39%) +0.17(+0.98%) +0.31(+0.73%) 消费电子 化学制药 恒瑞医药 工业富联 立讯精密 3765.24亿市值 3217.57亿市值 2391.64亿市值 9.84亿成交额 51.69亿成交额 27.27亿成交额 18.96 33.00 50.44 +0.27(+1.44%) +0.92(+2.87%) -2.37(-4.49%) 家电行业 农牧饲渔 海尔智家 牧原股份 格 ...

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 策略专题报告 再论红利的必要性和终点 市场周观察 05 月第 2 期 报告摘要： [Table_Summary] 红利持续缩圈，TOP4 均为银行。我们梳理目前的红利方向：（1）考虑 业绩波动对于分红的影响，连续多个季度 EPS 保持稳定，或者存在向上 的预期；（2）考虑股价对于股息率的影响，筛选＞2%的方向，相对 10Y 国债收益率仍具有绝对性价比。目前筛选的方向中：TOP4 均为银行的二 级行业，国有大型银行、农商行、城商行、股份制银行；以及消费白马， 厨卫电器、白酒、白色家电；此外，交运物流保持在 3%左右的股息；而 此前明显强势的煤炭已经不在此列。 高实际利率偏好于稳定性资产。（1）传统观点认为红利占优在于无风险 利率的下行，因此拥有类债属性的红利风格凭借更高的股息率走强。但 从历史规律看，2020 年以前，国内无风险利率更多与中证红利/万得全 A 的收益同向变动；但在 2022 年后，红利股走强的逻辑并不能够用无风险 利率波动简单解释，红利风格的定价模式似乎出现变化。（2）如果我们 考虑实际利率对于资产价格的影响，我们引入了无风险利率-PPI 来指代 实 ...

未来出口节奏如何判断？ 一方面， 中美虽将有谈判，但我们认为短期达成有利协议的可能性不大，特朗普的目的在于稳住国内。综合 来看，出口未来趋势仍将整体回落，至年中或将探底。届时美国通胀影响显现，叠加经济继续放缓，其国内传导更有可能逼迫特朗普 让步。 另一方面， 即便出口开启下行区间，其对应的组装进口零部件等需求也将同步下降，则贸易差额放缓幅度或更慢一些，净出口 对于经济增长的拖累也将更小。 出口有所回落，但韧性较强。 按美元计价，2025年4月我国出口同比增速录得8.1%，较3月回落超4个百分点，高于市场预期。外部困 难加大，但环比增速处历年同期中位水平，指向出口韧性较强，主要来自抢转口以及部分商品关税豁免。 一方面， 虽对美国直接出口 回落明显，但对东盟等转口国出口大幅上行，结合美进口集装箱中枢仍居高位，指向"抢转口"对冲规模不小。 另一方面， 美国4月中 旬豁免来自中国超两成商品的出口关税。 数量拉动下降，价格拖累收窄。 按数量和价格因素拆解十余种代表性商品的出口增速，我们发现，4月代表性商品出口增速中，受关 税和高基数等因素影响，数量拉动作用下降，而价格拖累有所收窄。 分品类来看， 电子和劳动密集型数量拉 ...

金十图示：2025年05月09日（周五）富时中国A50指数成分股今日收盘行情一览：银行、石油、煤炭、电池等板块收高，证券、 消费电子、有色金属等板块收高。 @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 +0.03(+0.78%) +0.06(+1.15%) +0.17(+2.33%) 保险 0.000 中国太保 中国平安 中国人保 0 3294.69亿市值 3062.15亿市值 9423.80亿市值 6.44亿成交额 15.08亿成交额 4.12亿成交额 51.75 7.45 31.83 +0.09(+1.22%) +0.04(+0.13%) -0.21(-0.40%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 19988.37亿市值 5107.42亿市值 2480.43亿市值 37.58亿成交额 4.95亿成交额 14.55亿成交额 1591.18 203.32 131.58 +12.99(+0.82%) -0.92(-0.45%) -0.22(-0.17%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2922.20亿市值 2354.91亿市值 3344.26亿市值 17.28亿成交额 21.0 ...

金十图示：2025年05月09日（周五）富时中国A50指数成分股午盘收盘行情一览：银行、航运港口、电力等板块走高，半导体、 消费电子、证券等板块走低 +0.16(+2.19%) +0.05(+0.96%) +0.05(+1.29%) 保险 中国太保 中国平安 中国人保 0 3294.69亿市值 3062.15亿市值 9452.93亿市值 4.22亿成交额 8.83亿成交额 2.68亿成交额 7.45 31.83 51.91 +0.09(+1.22%) +0.04(+0.13%) -0.05(-0.10%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 19941.76亿市值 2477.99亿市值 5109.36亿市值 19.69亿成交额 2.57亿成交额 7.74亿成交额 1587.47 131.63 203.12 +9.28(+0.59%) -1.12(-0.55%) -0.17(-0.13%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2911.18亿市值 2351.60亿市值 3349.60亿市值 10.58亿成交额 11.71亿成交额 8.88亿成交额 697.36 144.11 440.23 -8 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides an in - depth analysis of Zhonghe Technology's business operations, development strategies, and responds to investors' questions. The company has achieved certain results in 2024 and has clear development plans for 2025, aiming to become a leading domestic provider in the space information industry [24][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Research Basic Situation - The research object is Zhonghe Technology, belonging to the transportation equipment industry. The reception time was on May 7, 2025. The listed company's reception personnel included Vice - President and Board Secretary He Junli, Vice - President Yang Yanjie, and Financial Controller Wang Meijiao [17]. 3.2. Detailed Research Institutions - The reception objects include online investors and others [20]. 3.3. Research Institution Proportion No information provided. 3.4. Main Content Data 3.4.1. Company Introduction and 2024 Business Performance - **Overall Business**: In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 2.024 billion yuan and a net profit of 24.36 million yuan. It completed a cash dividend of 100.4252266 million yuan in the middle of 2024, and a share repurchase of 12.165 million shares, with 3.6054 million shares cancelled, equivalent to a dividend of 199.851666 million yuan. It also successfully completed a private placement of about 684 million yuan and initially laid out the three - dimensional transportation strategy [24]. - **Business Segments**: - **Aerospace and Three - Dimensional Transportation Scenarios**: - **Intelligent Rail Transit**: The intelligent rail transit business achieved an operating income of 1.53 billion yuan, with new order amounts of about 3.15 billion yuan, setting a new record. The signal system business had a market share of 23.46%, ranking second [24]. - **Low - altitude**: The company launched three core products in 2024, covering the flight control system of low - altitude unmanned aerial vehicles and low - altitude infrastructure [24]. - **Semiconductor Materials**: The company's subsidiary, Haina Co., Ltd., achieved an operating income of 403 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 21.06%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 17.7458 million yuan. The revenue proportion of high - value - added polished wafers remained above 60%, and the revenue proportion of medium - and large - sized products exceeded 40% [24][25]. 3.4.2. Future Development Plan for 2025 - **Strategic Goals**: The company aims to become a leading domestic provider of core domestic software and overall solutions in the space information industry, and adopts the "super subcontractor" model for business layout [25]. - **Technical Base and Innovation**: Upgrade the "platform generalization + scenario customization" technology and product architecture [25]. - **Industrial Layout**: Strengthen capital support for the cornerstone industry, accelerate the implementation of the space information strategy, expand overseas markets, and restructure the resource allocation system [25]. - **Team Building**: Actively recruit and reserve talent [25]. - **Disclosure and Internal Control**: Improve information disclosure and internal control to promote high - quality development of the listed company [25]. 3.4.3. Answers to Investor Questions - **Low - altitude Business**: The company's low - altitude business mainly focuses on the flight control system of unmanned aerial vehicles and low - altitude infrastructure, with three core products [26]. - **Reasons and Advantages for Entering Low - altitude and Low - orbit Fields**: The three fields of rail transit, low - altitude, and low - orbit are important components of three - dimensional transportation, with broad market prospects. They have similarities in management, technology, safety, and application scenarios. The company has technical bases in rail transit and can extend its capabilities to these fields [26][27]. - **Low - orbit Satellite Layout**: The company will focus on high - end equipment digital overall solutions for the satellite Internet industry and has strategically controlled Chenji Digital Satellite Technology (Zhejiang) Co., Ltd. in early 2025 [27][28]. - **Cooperation in Low - altitude Field**: The company's flight control safety computer products are in offline discussions with some unmanned aerial vehicle and eVTOL manufacturers, with no public information available [28]. - **Semiconductor Business**: Haina Co., Ltd. mainly produces 3 - 8 - inch single - crystal silicon ingots, ground wafers, and polished wafers, which are used in semiconductor discrete devices and integrated circuits [29]. - **Semiconductor Planning**: The company will accelerate the production capacity release of the Shanxi single - crystal silicon ingot base and the Jinhua polished wafer base, expand the market, and optimize the capital structure [29]. - **2025 Q1 Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company in the first quarter of 2025 was - 49.9707184 million yuan, mainly due to reduced project delivery in intelligent transportation, increased management, finance, and R & D expenses [30]. - **ST Risk**: The company's financial situation is stable and does not meet the conditions for special treatment (ST) [30]. - **Interest - related Issues**: Hangzhou Xinyihui Technology Partnership is the company's founding partner's shareholding platform, which does not involve interest transfer or damage to shareholders' interests [30][31]. - **Circulating Shares**: As of December 31, 2024, the company's circulating shares accounted for 80.36% of the total shares, and the proportion does not directly reflect market sentiment [31]. - **Computing Power Project**: The pre - calculated total computing power scale of the company's computing power project is 2000P, to be deployed in batches according to market conditions, and it has not been put into operation yet. A 502 - million - yuan investment fund has been established [31]. - **Healthcare Business**: The company's healthcare business is in the incubation period but has generated revenue [31]. - **Overseas Business**: The company has no business in Pakistan. Its overseas business follows the "Belt and Road" strategy, focusing on Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. In April 2025, it won a 175 - million - yuan contract in Kazakhstan [32][33]. - **Project Payment Cycle**: The company's intelligent transportation business realizes revenue mainly within 1 - 2 years after winning a bid, and the payment cycle varies according to different projects [33]. - **Market Value Management**: The company will actively carry out market value management to enhance company value and return to investors [33]. - **Stock Price Fluctuation**: The company believes that stock price fluctuations are affected by macro - economic and market sentiment factors [33]. - **Shareholding of Hangzhou State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission**: As of now, the Hangzhou State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and its concerted actors hold 32.381 million shares, accounting for 4.77%, and there is no notice of further share acquisition [33][34].

Market Performance - On May 8, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but closed up by 0.28%, while the CSI A500 Index rose by 0.58% [1] - The A500 ETF (512050) increased by 0.64%, with a trading volume exceeding 3.1 billion yuan, ranking first among similar funds [1] - The A500 ETF experienced a net inflow of 208 million yuan yesterday [1] Company Actions - In the past month, 370 companies in the A-share market have announced share buyback and increase plans, with 18 companies launching buyback schemes exceeding 1 billion yuan [1] - CATL (宁德时代) is leading the implementation of significant buyback initiatives, reflecting companies' confidence in their development prospects [1] Market Outlook - Huachuang Securities believes the market is currently in a "golden pit," suggesting that pullbacks present opportunities for allocation [1] - The annual strategy maintains that domestic dual easing policies will continue to combat low prices and asset sell-off, ultimately reversing the contraction in corporate profits and restoring private sector confidence [1] - Focus areas for capital markets include domestic demand and self-sufficiency, which are seen as key under ongoing external uncertainties [1]