Market Performance - The A-share market showed signs of recovery with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.79% and the ESG 300 index increasing by 3.17% during the week of January 5-9, 2026[5] - The average daily trading volume across the A-share market was approximately 52.3 billion RMB, indicating a loosening of liquidity[5] ESG Fund Issuance - No new ESG fund products were issued in January 2026; however, a total of 184 ESG public fund products were issued in the past year, amounting to 70.809 billion units[7] - The total net asset value of existing ESG fund products reached 1,167.513 billion RMB, with ESG strategy funds accounting for the largest share at 45%[7] Green Bond Issuance - In January 2026, 32 ESG bonds were issued, totaling 21.1 billion RMB; over the past year, 1,241 ESG bonds were issued, amounting to 1,359.1 billion RMB[13] - The total outstanding ESG bonds in China reached 3,898, with green bonds making up 62.3% of the total outstanding amount of 5.77 trillion RMB[13] Trading Activity - The total trading volume of ESG green bonds for the week of January 5-9, 2026, was approximately 604.5826 billion RMB, with the interbank bond market accounting for 75.69% of the total trading volume[15] - Repo transactions dominated the trading activity, comprising 95.04% of the total trading volume during the same week[15] Bank Wealth Management Products - In January 2026, 24 ESG wealth management products were issued, primarily focused on pure ESG and social responsibility themes[17] - The total number of existing ESG bank wealth management products reached 1,212, with pure ESG products making up 53.96% of the total[17] Risk Factors - Potential risks include insufficient policy support for ESG initiatives, lack of standardized data reporting, and lower-than-expected product issuance volumes[21]

资金面有所收敛；配置盘进场加力，债市走强 【内容摘要】1 月 12 日，资金面有所收敛，主要回购利率均上行；配置盘进场加力，债市走 强；转债市场主要指数集体跟涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲 经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【四部门：加强政府投资基金布局规划和投向指导】国家发改委 1 月 12 日消息，为加强对政 府投资基金布局规划和投向指导，更加突出政府引导和政策性定位，国家发改委、财政部、科 技部、工业和信息化部制定了《关于加强政府投资基金布局规划和投向指导的工作办法（试 行）》。国家发展改革委同步制定了《政府投资基金投向评价管理办法（试行）》，引导政府 投资基金落实国家产业调控要求，支持现代化产业体系建设。这是首次在国家层面对政府投资 基金的布局和投向作出系统规范。 【2026 年央行上海总部工作会议召开，重点抓好六方面工作】央行上海总部日前召开 2026 年 工作会议强调，2026 年着力推进金融改革和对外开放，配合总行做好上海发展离岸金融相关 工作。推动临港新片区离岸贸易金融服务综合改革试点扩围。持续推进人民币国际化。积极推 动外汇管理改 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Sanna Takashi has decided to dissolve the House of Representatives on the opening day of the National Assembly on the 23rd, leading to concerns about the deterioration of Japan's fiscal situation and resulting in a decline in bond prices and a depreciation of the yen in the financial markets [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The Tokyo bond market experienced a sell-off of long-term government bonds, causing a sharp rise in long-term bond yields [1] - The yield on the newly issued 10-year government bonds reached 2.16%, the highest level since February 1999 [1] - The depreciation of the yen against the US dollar saw it drop to 158.97 yen per dollar, compared to around 147 yen per dollar in early October last year [1] Group 2: Political Context - Concerns are heightened as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) does not hold a majority in the House of Representatives, raising fears that a victory in the upcoming elections could further support Takashi's expansionary fiscal policies [1] - Analysts suggest that the market remains highly vigilant regarding the dissolution of the House of Representatives due to potential fiscal risks associated with the LDP's policies [1]

近期，债市在多重利空的影响下延续调整走势，尤其是超长端调整幅度较大，30年期国债期货创2025年以来的 新低。虽然2025年12月31日，债基赎回费率新规靴子落地，监管态度明显软化，缓解了市场的担忧情绪，但年 初开盘债市仍然面临多重利空因素。一方面，国债单期发行规模增加，供给压力加大，债券供需问题再度引发 市场担忧。另一方面，2025年12月央行买债规模仅500亿元，不及市场预期，货币宽松预期降温。此外，最新公 布的制造业PMI及通胀数据均超预期，经济基本面改善迹象明显，债市承压。 今年以来，长端利率面临基本面、股市以及供求结构的利空扰动。2026年一季度政府债继续"靠前发力"，1月供 给占比较去年进一步提升，尤其是30年期债券占比较高导致市场对超长端供需结构的担忧升温。目前1月已披露 地方债发行计划超8000亿元，而需求承接力度不足，叠加PMI和通胀数据超预期、年初股市和商品市场"开门 红"，长端债券市场压力不减。 近期经济基本面出现阶段性修复，对债市形成利空压制。相关数据显示，2025年12月制造业PMI较前值上升0.9 个百分点，至50.1%，表现超预期，主要受国内春节偏晚拉长节前备货周期、政策性金融工 ...

发布时间：2026-01-13 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:王一 SAC 登记编号:S1340125070001 Email:wangyi8@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《生产热度分化，物价整体回升——高 频数据跟踪 20260112》 - 2026.01.13 固收专题 "春季躁动"对债市有何影响 ？ ——看股做债专题二 ⚫ 股市春季行情涨幅越大，债市承压概率越高 证券研究报告：固定收益报告 从长期样本看，A 股春季躁动是少数同时具备高胜率与可观赔率 的阶段性行情窗口，历史上涨概率超过九成，春季行情主升段的历史 平均最大涨幅约 14%。从债市视角看，上证春季涨幅超过 20%时，10 年期国债大概率在春季行情同期下跌。但在更为常见的 10%—20%中等 涨幅区间，债市并非必然逆风，反而更容易表现为震荡或阶段性修复。 ⚫ 春季行情中段加速相比触底反弹，更易压制债市 行情发生在急跌后的低位修复阶段时，权益上涨主要体现为估值 与风险偏好修复，对名义增长与通胀的外溢有限，若同时伴随降准、 降息等宽 ...

Group 1 - HSBC expresses a positive outlook on Chinese assets, recommending investors to increase holdings in mainland China and Hong Kong stocks by 2026 and to establish long positions in the renminbi [1] - The bank suggests a shift in investment focus towards assets supported by domestic demand amid potential market volatility, particularly favoring stocks in China, Hong Kong, India, and Indonesia [2] - HSBC advises selling Swiss francs and buying offshore renminbi, anticipating a gradual appreciation of the renminbi due to China's industrial upgrades and technological self-sufficiency [1][3] Group 2 - HSBC recommends an overweight position in stocks from mainland China, Hong Kong, India, and Indonesia, while advising a reduction in exposure to the crowded South Korean market due to concerns over the sustainability of AI-driven growth [2] - The bank highlights the potential for interest rate cuts by some Asian central banks to support local stock markets, although the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may limit this space [4] - In the fixed income sector, HSBC favors a curve steepening strategy and is optimistic about bonds from India and the Philippines, while being cautious about Thailand and Indonesia [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The official release of the new regulations on public - offering fund sales is expected to smooth policy disturbances, ease market sentiment, and guide long - term and value investment, but it may also lead to institutional allocation adjustments and test the demand in the bond market. The bond market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. [3][10][13] - In December 2025, the official manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, indicating an improvement in both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry. [4][14] - The central bank maintained a net capital injection last week, leading to a comprehensive decline in capital prices. [5][17] - In the primary market of credit bonds, the issuance scale decreased, and the issuance cost mostly increased. [6][21] - In the secondary market of credit bonds, trading activity cooled down, and the yields of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds showed different trends. [7][32] Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - On December 31, 2025, the new regulations on public - offering fund sales were officially released, with key revisions including relaxed redemption fee requirements for bond funds and an extended transition period from 6 months to 12 months. [10] - Relaxing redemption fee requirements helps stabilize market sentiment and reduce the short - term redemption pressure on bond funds, while the new regulations may also lead to adjustments in institutional allocation and a possible diversion of bond market investment funds. [11][12] Macroeconomic Data - In December 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after 8 months. The production index and new order index both increased, but only large - scale enterprises' PMI was in the expansion range. [4][14] - China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, rising above the boom - bust line again. [4][14] Money Market - Last week, the central bank net injected 7374 billion yuan through open - market operations, including 13601 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, while 4227 billion yuan of 7 - day and 2000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchases matured. [5][17] - Due to the central bank's net injection and a decrease in cash demand after the New Year, capital prices declined comprehensively, with the decline of pledged - repo rates ranging from 1bp to 21bp. [5][17] Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds was 634.04 billion yuan, with a daily average of 158.51 billion yuan, showing a decline in all bond types and industries compared to the previous period. [6][21] - In terms of net financing, the infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net outflow of 72.08 billion yuan, and most industries in industrial bonds had net outflows, except for the power production and supply industry with a net inflow of 139 billion yuan. [6][22] - The average issuance cost of credit bonds mostly increased, with the cost of 3 - year bonds changing significantly, while only the average issuance cost of 1 - year AA + and 5 - year AA bonds decreased. [6][30] Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the secondary - market trading volume of bonds was 38369.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 46421.76 billion yuan from the previous value, indicating continued cooling in trading activity. [7][32] - Interest - rate bonds: The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased across the board, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield rising slightly by 1bp to 1.84%. [7][32] - Credit bonds: The yields of credit bonds varied by term, with the yields of 1 - year and 5 - year bonds mostly decreasing and those of other - term bonds mostly increasing, with a maximum increase of 6bp. [32][35] - Credit spreads: The credit spreads of AAA - rated bonds of various terms showed mixed trends, with the spreads of 3 - year and 10 - year bonds slightly expanding, and most of the other - term spreads narrowing, with a maximum change of 8bp. [32][39] - Rating spreads: The spreads between different ratings mostly widened, with a maximum increase of 2bp. [32][39] Supplementary Tables - There were several bond credit risk events, including the extension of principal and interest payments for bonds issued by companies such as Guangzhou Fangyuan Real Estate, Fantasia Group, and Rongxin Investment Group. [42] - There were regulatory and market innovation dynamics, such as the launch of the ChinaBond - ICBC Panda Bond Index series and the release of relevant business guidelines by the Shanghai Stock Exchange. [43] - The table shows the monthly net financing amounts of major credit bond types from January 2024 to December 2025. [44]

如何看待当前的市场形态及其对后市的影响？ 当前市场形态显示出显著的期限溢价扩张，这主要反映了风险偏好的提升。历 史上类似 13 年和 16 年的熊斗行情最终转为熊平，是由于货币政策收紧导致短 端和长端利率同时上升，但短端上涨更多。然而，目前货币政策仍维持宽松， 因此不支持期限溢价进一步大幅扩张。预计未来曲线陡峭化将维持，但有一定 限度。 固收-债市利空加速出尽？20260112 摘要 当前市场呈现期限溢价扩张，反映风险偏好提升，但货币政策宽松基调 未变，限制了期限溢价的进一步扩张空间。预计收益率曲线将维持陡峭 化，但幅度有限。 年初债市"开门黑"受风险偏好回升、货币宽松预期落空以及前期市场 负面情绪延续等多重因素影响，对债市造成阶段性冲击。 尽管市场对货币宽松预期悲观，央行仍将维持社会融资成本在低位，降 准降息是大概率事件，将对债市形成支撑，缓解当前压力。 风险偏好回升带来的阶段性冲击已被市场充分定价，不会导致收益中枢 系统性抬升。基本面未逆转情况下，收益中枢将回归正常水平。 市场情绪悲观源于货币宽松缺位、地方债发行计划中超长久期债券比例 偏高以及 10 年期国债单只发行规模增大，但供给压力影响仍需观察。 若 ...

在太平洋投资管理公司（Pimco）、PGIM和DWS集团等大型债券公司，投资经理们警告称，特朗普对 美联储独立性的攻击，正与他降低利率的目标背道而驰。 他们表示，此举通过威胁削弱央行对抗通胀的公信力，正在金融市场注入一个重大的新风险。只要这种 不确定性持续，交易员就可能使美国国债收益率维持在比原本更高的水平——进而推高抵押贷款、企业 贷款和其他形式信贷的成本。 "市场将因美联储而变得非常紧张，视其为不稳定性的来源，"PGIM固定收益联席首席投资官格雷戈里· 彼得斯（Gregory Peters）表示。他管理着约9000亿美元的资产。 他将本届政府施压行动的最新转折——即上周日传出的司法部威胁起诉美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 （Jerome Powell）的消息——比作一名足球运动员不小心为对手球队进了球。 "这完全出人意料，且毫无疑问是风险规避信号，"他说。这是"制度规范的又一次磨损，具有中长期影 响。" 他曾试图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook），理由是其涉及未经证实的抵押贷款欺诈指控，此案 目前正等待最高法院审理。他还任命了一名白宫顾问进入美联储理事会，该顾问主张的货币政策宽松力 度远超其同僚。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market at the beginning of 2026 seems to mirror the situation at the beginning of 2025. Despite short - term uncertainties, considering the rapid decline in duration and the central bank's supportive attitude, the future adjustment space of the bond market is limited. Once the impacts of factors such as supply, credit, and the A - share market are weaker than expected, the bond market may continue to follow the mirror image of early 2025 and experience a recovery [2][10]. - At present, the A - share and commodity price trends are not sufficient to trigger a reversal in the bond market direction. During the adjustment process, the impact of ultra - long bonds on the net value of public funds has weakened, which helps to mitigate market shocks [8][10]. - It is recommended to maintain a certain leverage, use 2 - 3 - year medium - to - high - grade credit bonds as the bottom - position, focus on 3 - 5 - year secondary perpetual bonds in the short term, and trade long - term bond bands opportunistically according to market conditions [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. The Market Adjustment Since the Beginning of the Year is Due to Traders' Concerns about Supply Rather Than the Supply Shock Itself - The core concern in the market is the supply - demand of ultra - long bonds. The market adjustment is affected by the large issuance scale of key - term treasury bonds in January and the high proportion of ultra - long local bonds in some regions [3][16]. - Although the issuance scale of key - term treasury bonds in January has increased, the net financing scale of treasury bonds in Q1 2026 is only slightly higher than that of the same period last year. The estimated net financing scale of local bonds in Q1 2026 may be lower than that of the same period in 2025 [20][26]. - Local governments may prefer to issue long - term bonds because refinancing bonds cannot fully cover the maturing local debt. However, the national fiscal work conference emphasizes optimizing the government bond tool portfolio, so the issuance term of local bonds may not be further extended compared to 2025 [3][30]. - The recent market adjustment is mainly caused by the large - scale net selling of public funds and securities firms. It is more of an emotional weakening due to supply concerns rather than a substantial impact. As long as the 30 - year treasury bond is the most actively traded, its pricing is still determined by traders, and it has shown higher cost - effectiveness after the recent adjustment [4][31][37]. 3.2. If External Disturbances Are Weaker Than Expected, the Bond Market May Follow the Mirror Image of Early 2025 and Experience a Recovery - Despite the continuous net withdrawal of OMO and the non - excessive renewal of 3M repurchase, the loose capital state continues, which may be related to the year - end fiscal deposit release and the central bank's supportive attitude. The probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut in January has significantly increased, and the central bank's net purchase of treasury bonds is also expected to rise [41][43][45]. - Historically, supply shocks have a greater impact on the bond market in a tight liquidity environment. Currently, the central bank's attitude is supportive, and the bank's liabilities do not show obvious pressure, so the supply shock may be less than expected. The central bank has the motivation to solve the problem of the supply - demand imbalance of government bonds [47][49]. 3.3. Wait for the Impact of Risk Preference Changes to Gradually Fade - The bond market adjustment is also related to the continuous rise of the A - share and commodity prices. However, as the upward slope of the A - share market becomes steeper, its volatility increases, and the impact on the bond market has weakened. The rise in commodity prices may be short - term, and the recovery of CPI still faces challenges [50][51][56]. - During the adjustment process, the impact of ultra - long bonds on the net value of public funds has weakened, which helps to mitigate market shocks. Although short - term uncertainties remain, the future adjustment space of the bond market is limited, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the subsequent bond market [64][71].