机构认为，近日债基赎回压力有所增加，短期内债市难明显回暖，多数时间预计只能继续"看股做债"。 缴税走款影响持续，但央行公开市场逆回购操作已开始加力，而且8月非缴税大月，后续几日资金料出 现缓解之势。 【行情跟踪】 新华财经北京8月20日电 债市周三（8月20日）再度回调，期现券早间持稳、午后震荡走弱，国债期货 主力合约多数收跌，银行间现券收益率午后普遍转为上行；公开市场单日净投放4975亿元，资金利率延 续上行。 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.35%报116.050，10年期主力合约跌0.18%报107.855，5年 期主力合约跌0.10%报105.425，2年期主力合约持平于102.326。 欧元区市场方面，当地时间8月19日，10年期法债收益率跌1.1BP报3.434%，10年期德债收益率跌1.3BP 报2.747%，10年期意债收益率跌0.1BP报3.553%，10年期西债收益率跌0.6BP报3.320%。其他市场方 面，10年期英债收益率涨0.3BP报4.738%。 【一级市场】 财政部2期国债中标收益率均低于中债估值。财政部91天、5年期国债加权中标收益率分别为1.2715%、 1.5 ...

全球债券市场近期波动加剧，投资者对美联储降息预期的每一次细微变化都牵动着神经，而信息差已成 为现代债市投资中最关键的利润来源。 美国国债在周二扭转连续三日跌势，收益率全线回落。10年期基准收益率降至4.30%，结束了自上周四 起的抛售行情。 这一变化源于投资者对美联储最早可能在9月降息的持续押注，同时市场正在静待美联储主席鲍威尔即 将在杰克逊霍尔年会上发表的重磅讲话。 新浪财经APP中美利差页面 01 全球债市新动态 近期，美国国债市场上演了一场精彩的逆转行情。经过连续三日的下跌，国债收益率在周二全线回落， 各期限普遍下跌1至4个基点。 利率互换市场定价显示，9月美联储降息的概率已升至约80%。市场情绪的转变，很大程度上来自于对 就业市场降温迹象的解读。 不只是美债，中国债市也呈现出相似走势。8月20日，利率债高开，10年期国债活跃券开盘一路下行。 同时，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.23%，10年期主力合约涨0.03%。债市情绪的微妙 变化，正为精明的投资者创造着难得的机会窗口。 02 信息获取决定投资收益 在债券市场这个瞬息万变的领域，信息获取的速度和质量直接决定着投资成败。"快人一步"的信 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The logic of "buying on every dip" in the bond market still holds as the logic supporting the long - term bull market in the bond market remains intact. The future outlook is long - term bullish but short - term bottom - grinding [1][2][20]. - The core cause of the four rounds of redemption tides since September 24, 2024, is the unexpected rise in the equity market. The consensus of a slow - bull market in equities is strengthening, leading to more frequent bond market adjustments and redemption tides [1][8]. - The redemption risk index rose to 62 on August 18, indicating the risk of a redemption tide. Although the fund selling sentiment was strong in July, the active purchase by rural commercial banks and insurance companies effectively alleviated market pressure. It is expected that the scale of wealth management products will not be significantly negatively affected this time. If the 10Y Treasury yield touches 1.8% due to unexpected performance in the equity market, core buyers such as banks and insurance companies may enter the market, and investors can consider right - side allocation at this point [1][9][14]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. August Redemption Tide Returns - On August 18, the A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high in nearly a decade, triggering a bond market adjustment and bond fund redemptions. The core cause of the four rounds of redemption tides since September 24, 2024, is the unexpected rise in the equity market [8]. - A comprehensive redemption risk index was constructed. On August 18, the index rose to 62, mainly affected by bond fund redemptions, equity market rises, high - valuation transactions of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, and tightened liquidity [9]. 2. When Will the Redemption Tide Market Reach the Right Side? - In terms of time, the median duration of historical redemption tides is 6 - 7 trading days. Although the market slightly recovered on August 19, the redemption risk index has been triggered, and the redemption disturbance may last for 4 - 5 days [14]. - In terms of adjustment range, the 10Y Treasury yield rose 4bp on August 18 and fell 1bp on August 19, currently reaching about half of the adjustment range of small - scale redemption tides since 2023. The 1.8% level of the 10Y Treasury yield is a key observation point [14]. - The main sellers are funds and securities firms. On August 19, funds net - sold 126.6 billion yuan of bonds. In July, rural commercial banks and insurance companies actively bought bonds, and currently, wealth management products are still net buyers [14]. - The core factors for the end of the redemption tide include equity market adjustments and weakening of the stock - bond seesaw effect, central bank liquidity support, and self - repair of the market after reaching a certain adjustment level [15][16]. 3. Is the Logic of "Buying on Every Dip" Subverted? - The long - term bull market in the bond market is supported by factors such as weak economic recovery, declining income and employment expectations, long - term asset shortage, real estate bubble burst, fiscal tightening of general urban investment, moderately loose monetary policy, and difficulties in bank credit issuance [2][21]. - From the perspective of credit and bank fund flow, the high correlation between social financing credit and the bond market remains. Weak financing demand in general urban investment and real estate leads to weak credit growth, causing bank funds to flow into the bond market, making it difficult for the bond bull market to reverse. In July, the new credit in the social financing scale was - 426.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 345.5 billion yuan [2][22]. - From a technical perspective, the long - term interest rate is currently in a relatively right - side position, with good odds and relatively high winning probabilities. However, the liquidity of credit products is relatively weak, and a clearer right - side opportunity is still awaited. It is recommended to enter the market on the right side of this adjustment, take profits moderately, and maintain a defensive position [2][26].

回头看，日本同期增持126亿，英国更是大手笔扫货487亿。中国这1亿美债的操作，更像是金融精密仪 器上的微调旋钮。看似让步，实则坚守：持仓稳居全球第三，却牢牢卡在7564亿美元关口，远低于2022 年前长期维持的万亿级水平。这种"增持"更像给饥渴的美债市场递了杯水，解渴？远远不够。 有意思的是，特朗普政府几乎同步放风。总统先生对着镜头宣布，暂时不对中国购买俄油加征新关税。 一个月前他还挥舞关税大棒威胁"所有买俄油国家"，印度就吃了50%关税的闷棍。这政策急转弯，表面 是给刚续签的中美贸易停火协议面子，内里却是中国那1亿美债带来的微妙杠杆效应。要知道，2025年 上半年中国美债持仓就像坐过山车。这种精准调控，分明是在告诉华盛顿：中国手里握着美债这张牌， 想怎么打全看心情。 据报道，美国财政部的数据像颗石子投入平静湖面——中国在连续减持美债后，今年6月"破天荒"增持 了1亿美元。数字微小，但时机微妙。这1亿美元的增持动作，放在当前国际金融格局下，堪称一场精妙 的地缘政治博弈。 中国增持1亿美债与冷对大豆订单，看似矛盾，实则一套组合拳。金融上留一丝余地，避免全面摊牌； 贸易上寸步不让，用市场规则反制政治讹诈。大豆仓 ...

展望后市，华创证券固收首席分析师周冠南称，短期尽管'股债跷跷板'效应对当下债市的指引作用较强，但就中期维度考虑，由于基本面和货币 条件尚未逆转，因此债市仍处于调整逻辑而非反转逻辑中，目前无需过于悲观。 鹏扬30年国债ETF(511090)是目前市场上首只跟踪中债30年期国债指数的ETF，具备T+0交易属性，既可使得投资者日内低买高卖博取收益，也可 帮助投资者快速拉长组合久期或用作对冲权益仓位。该产品可以作为客户的高弹性现金管理工具和组合久期调节工具，短期在市场利率波动放大 时，具备较强的交易属性，长期在低利率的背景下，具备较强的配置属性，值得投资者积极关注。 风险提示：本处所列示信息仅用于沟通交流之目的，仅供参考，不构成对任何个股的投资建议。"基金有风险，投资需谨慎" 8月20日讯，国债市场早盘持续拉升。截至上午10:00，30年国债ETF(511090)涨0.28%。债市方面，30年期国债期货合约(TL2512)最新价为116.26 元，涨0.28%，成交量为19515手，总持仓量为89205手。其余国债期货合约10年期国债(T2512)涨0.03%；5年期国债(TF2512)涨0.04%；2年期国债 (T ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the performance data of global asset markets on August 19, 2025, including major economies' 10 - year and 2 - year treasury bond yields, dollar exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies, major economies' stock indices, stock futures trading data, and treasury futures trading data [3][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Treasury Bond Yields**: - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: On August 19, 2025, the 10 - year treasury bond yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.307%, 4.739%, 3.435% respectively. The latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes varied across different economies. For example, the US had a latest change of - 0.027, a weekly change of 0.016, a monthly change of - 0.039, and a yearly change of 0.366 [3] - **2 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: The 2 - year treasury bond yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.750%, 3.975%, 1.955% respectively on August 19, 2025. Their latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes also differed. For instance, the US had a latest change of 0.010, a weekly change of - 0.010, a monthly change of 0.060, and a yearly change of - 0.250 [3] - **Exchange Rates**: - **Dollar against Emerging Economies' Currencies**: On August 19, 2025, the dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.506, with a latest change of 1.28% and a weekly change of 2.17%. The exchange rates and their changes against other emerging economies' currencies also varied [3] - **Renminbi**: The on - shore, off - shore, mid - price, and 12 - month NDF of the renminbi on August 19, 2025 were 7.182, 7.187, 7.136, and 7.026 respectively, with different latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes [3] - **Stock Indices**: - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On August 19, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were 6411.370, 44922.270, and 21314.950 respectively. Their latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes were different. For example, the S&P 500 had a latest change of - 0.59%, a weekly change of - 0.53%, a monthly change of 1.61%, and a yearly change of 19.97% [3] - **Other Stock Indices**: The performance of other stock indices such as the Nikkei, Hang Seng Index, and Shanghai Composite Index also had their own characteristics in terms of latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes [3] Stock Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3727.29, 4223.37, 2812.42 respectively on August 19, 2025, with corresponding percentage changes [5] - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 13.53, 11.50, and 31.78 respectively, with their respective环比 changes [5] - **Fund Flow**: The latest values of fund flow for A - shares, the main board, etc. were - 1132.47, - 717.50 respectively, and the 5 - day average values also varied [5] - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 25883.69, 5535.36 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5] - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 7.17, 2.98, - 55.31 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Percentage Changes**: The closing prices of treasury futures T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.055, 105.540, 107.950, 105.475 respectively on August 19, 2025, with percentage changes of - 0.26%, - 0.19%, - 0.30%, - 0.27% respectively [6] - **Funding Rates**: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.5473%, 1.5581%, 1.5500% respectively, with daily changes of 5.00BP, 6.00BP, 0.00BP respectively [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of improving the government bond yield curve as a foundation for the financial market, highlighting recent measures taken by the Ministry of Finance to enhance liquidity in the secondary market for government bonds [2][3]. Summary by Sections Government Bond Market Operations - The Ministry of Finance announced operations to support the market for government bonds, specifically selling 2.7 billion yuan of 2025 10-year bonds and 2.8 billion yuan of 2025 12-year bonds to improve liquidity and reflect market supply and demand [2][3]. Current Market Conditions - The article discusses the ongoing asset shortage and declining policy interest rates, which have increased investor preference for government bonds, leading to a liquidity squeeze in the bond market [2][3][4]. - In July, there was a net decrease of 1.11 trillion yuan in household deposits, indicating a shift in financial asset distribution among residents [3]. Importance of a Healthy Yield Curve - A well-functioning government bond yield curve is crucial for the stability and predictability of the financial system, especially as household asset exposure risks change [3][4]. - The Ministry of Finance's operations aim to balance supply and demand in the market, preventing excessive price increases and ensuring that the yield curve reflects market conditions [3][4]. Challenges in the Market - The article identifies two main issues contributing to the current market's risk-averse behavior: low policy interest rates leading to credit tightening and insufficient capacity to generate effective risk assets, exacerbating the asset shortage [4][5]. - The focus on safe assets like government bonds has resulted in liquidity problems in the secondary market, as investors prefer to hold rather than trade these securities [4][5]. Recommendations for Improvement - To enhance the government bond yield curve and market pricing mechanisms, it is essential to address low interest rates and promote a more open economic environment that encourages risk-taking and innovation among market participants [5][6]. - The article advocates for comprehensive reforms to eliminate barriers to market efficiency and foster a competitive legal market order, ultimately improving investment returns and addressing the asset shortage [5][6].

Group 1 - The meeting between Chinese and Indian foreign ministers resulted in 10 key agreements aimed at enhancing bilateral relations and cooperation [3][4][5] - Both sides emphasized the importance of strategic leadership from their respective leaders for the development of China-India relations [3] - China welcomed Indian Prime Minister Modi's participation in the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, while India expressed support for China's presidency of the organization [3][4] Group 2 - The two countries agreed to support each other's diplomatic activities, including the hosting of the BRICS summits in 2026 and 2027 [3][4] - There is a mutual agreement to explore the resumption of various government-to-government dialogue mechanisms to strengthen cooperation and manage differences [3][4] - Both nations plan to facilitate direct flights and visa conveniences for travelers engaged in tourism, business, and media activities [4][5] Group 3 - The agreement includes provisions for the continued pilgrimage of Indian devotees to sacred sites in Tibet, expanding the scale of such activities [4][5] - Specific measures will be taken to facilitate trade and investment flows between the two countries [5] - Both sides committed to maintaining peace and stability in border areas through friendly consultations [5] Group 4 - The two countries agreed to promote multilateralism and enhance communication on major international and regional issues, defending the interests of developing countries [5]

融券方面，当日融券卖出0.00万股，净卖出0.00万股。 来源：金融界 8月19日，沪深两融数据显示，国债30年(511130)获融资买入额4.65亿元，居两市第47位，当日融资偿还 额4.34亿元，净买入3135.40万元。 最近三个交易日，15日-19日，国债30年(511130)分别获融资买入2.44亿元、4.14亿元、4.65亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant pressure and adjustments, contrasting with the strong performance of the equity market, leading to concerns among bond fund managers about redemption pressures and declining net asset values [1][3][6]. Market Performance - On August 18, the bond market faced its worst day in August, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising by 5 basis points and 6 basis points respectively, closing at 1.79% and 2.06% [1]. - The average performance of pure bond funds was negative, with mid-to-long-term pure bond funds averaging -0.19% and short-term bond funds averaging -0.03% for the week [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The bond market is under pressure due to increased risk appetite in the equity market, leading to a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, where funds are being diverted from bonds to equities [3][4]. - The current bond market adjustment is driven more by expectations rather than changes in the funding environment, with a potential shift from deflation to mild inflation anticipated [3][4]. Fund Manager Strategies - Fund managers are adopting strategies such as shortening duration and adjusting portfolio structures to cope with the steepening yield curve [8][9]. - There is a consensus among fund managers that the bond market does not have the foundation for a long-term decline, with continued demand from institutional clients and a stable funding environment [2][8]. Investor Sentiment - Personal investors are expressing mixed feelings, with some feeling pessimistic about the bond market while others see potential buying opportunities [8][10]. - Fund managers suggest that investors consider extending their holding periods and maintaining a balanced approach to their portfolios, especially during market adjustments [10][11].