丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 信用"压利差"行情或延续 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 7 月信用债市场在增量资金驱动下或延续"压利差"行情，保险、理财等增量资金入场或将提 振需求，尤其利好中长久期中低评级品种。保险预定利率下调预期、理财跨季回流及净值化整 改进度过半或释放增量配置需求。资金面宽松与信用债 ETF 扩容构成支撑，中长久期券种因利 差收窄空间较大而表现较优，但需警惕行情过热后的估值波动风险。整体来看，结构性机会明 确，但需关注政策动向及资金面变化，建议布局增量资金目标品种并控制资质下沉边界。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 信用"压利差"行情或延续 [Table_Summa] 增量资金逻辑下，信用"压利差"行情或延续 7 月保险、理财等增量资金入场或将提振信用债需求，尤其利好中低 ...

监测周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日—2025 年 6 月 29 日 总第 347 期 2025 年第 23 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 地方政府债与城投行业 中央决算草案披露融资平台减少 7000 多家 内蒙古优化专项债还本付息机制 ——地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年第 23 期 本期要点 ◼ 要闻点评 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 鲁 璐 llu@ccxi.com.cn 张 堃 kzhang02@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 22 期】审计署披露超千亿专项债违规使 用，广西举全区之力支持柳州化解债务 2025-06-27 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 21 期】国常会强调更大力度推动房地产 止跌回稳，黑龙江健全隐债过桥偿债应急 备付金制度 2025-06-19 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 20 期】发改委"376 号文"细化 PPP 新机 制，福建明确专项债资金回收 ...

固收 信用债顺势继续挖掘 证券研究报告 SAC No. S0570520110003 SFC No. BSF414 华泰研究 文晨昕 研究员 wenchenxin@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2068 仇文竹 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 朱沁宜 研究员 SAC No. S0570523080005 zhuqinyi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 王晓宇 研究员 SAC No. S0570524070005 wangxiaoyu@htsc.com 2025 年 7 月 07 日│中国内地 信用周报 向怡乔 联系人 SAC No. S0570124020005 xiangyiqiao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 6 月市场抢跑，信用长债走强，7 月跨季后非银迎来增量，信用继续走强， 二永债领涨。往后看，基本面、资金面对债市仍偏多，跨季后理财债基有增 量，信用债及科创债 ETF 是新亮点，但能否继续扩容，核心仍在信用行情 的持续，目前标的估值已 ...

东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 时间 债市偏暖震荡，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化 ——利率债周报（2025.6.30-2025.7.6） 作者 2025 年 7 月 7 日 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市偏暖震荡，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化。上周（6 月 30 日当周），尽管货币政策委员会二季度例会公告删除择机降息 降准表述、股债跷跷板效应等对债市造成一定利空扰动，但在 跨季后资金面超预期宽松以及国债发行缩量支撑下，债市呈现 偏暖震荡格局，长债收益率整体小幅下行。短端利率方面，月 初资金面宽松推动机构"卷利差"交易，带动债市短端利率继 续下行，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化。 本周（7 月 7 日当周）债市料延续震荡行情。从基本面来看， 本周即将公布 6 月通胀数据，受中上旬国际原油价格冲高影响， 预计 6 月通胀数据将边际改善，但仍将处于低位运行区间，对 债市的利空影响料将有限。从资金面来看，尽管央行连续大额 净回笼，但月初资金面超预期宽松，带动资金利率创下新低。 若本周资金面延续宽松，短债利率有望进一步下行。整体上看， 预计本周债市长端利率将延续震荡行情，且在市场交易依然拥 挤背景下，波动或将加剧，短端利率 ...

Market Overview - The bond market experienced fluctuations and an upward trend during the week of June 30 to July 4, 2025, with the China Bond Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) rising by 0.17% and the China Bond Composite Full Price Index (CBA00203) increasing by 0.14% [2][12] - Short-term interest rates showed strong performance, with key yield spreads widening, while credit bond yields generally declined, leading to a narrowing of credit spreads [2][12] - The liquidity in the market improved post-quarter, supporting the bond market's strength, and the demand for coupon assets returned to stability [2][12][13] US Market Dynamics - Strong US non-farm payroll data reduced expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to an upward trend in US Treasury yields [14] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance and the unexpected strength in employment data contributed to a shift in market sentiment regarding future monetary policy [14] REITs Market Activity - The REITs secondary market saw fluctuations but ultimately rose, with the CSI REITs Total Return Index increasing by 0.66% [15] - Despite some adjustments in the market, the overall trading activity remained robust, indicating a healthy development trend [15] Public Fund Market Developments - The first batch of 10 Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on July 2, 2025, which is expected to provide new credit base options for investors amid a low-interest-rate environment [16][17] Fund Performance Tracking - Short-term bond funds rose by 0.08% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.02% since inception [3] - Medium to long-term bond funds increased by 0.19%, achieving a cumulative return of 6.69% since inception [4] - Low-volatility fixed income plus funds rose by 0.31%, with a cumulative return of 2.79% since inception [5] - Medium-volatility fixed income plus funds increased by 0.54%, with a cumulative return of 2.33% since inception [6] - High-volatility fixed income plus funds rose by 0.40%, achieving a cumulative return of 3.40% since inception [7] - Convertible bond funds increased by 0.74%, with a cumulative return of 10.79% since inception [8] - QDII bond funds decreased by 0.08%, with a cumulative return of 7.87% since inception [9] - REITs funds rose by 1.00%, achieving a cumulative return of 40.41% since inception [10]

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a warm oscillation last week, with a slight decline in long-term bond yields. The 10-year government bond futures main contract rose by 0.03%, while the 10-year bond yield fell by 0.29 basis points compared to the previous week [2][3] - The yield curve has steepened further, driven by a combination of factors including a loosening of the funding environment and a reduction in government bond issuance [1][3] Secondary Market - On July 1, the bond market was supported by a loosening funding environment and a reduction in government bond issuance, leading to a general decline in yields. The 10-year bond yield decreased by 0.36 basis points [4] - On July 2, the market continued to strengthen due to the increasingly loose funding environment, with the 10-year bond yield falling by 0.37 basis points [4] - On July 3, the bond market remained warm, with most yields declining, although the 10-year bond yield increased slightly by 0.11 basis points [4] - On July 4, short-term bonds continued to perform well due to the ongoing loose funding environment, while long-term bonds weakened slightly due to the stock-bond effect, with the 10-year bond yield rising by 0.26 basis points [4] Primary Market - A total of 47 bonds were issued last week, a decrease of 130 bonds from the previous week, with an issuance volume of 513.2 billion, down by 354.4 billion. The net financing amount was 376.6 billion, a significant decrease of 404.1 billion [11][12] - Government bonds, policy bank bonds, and local government bonds saw varying issuance trends, with government bonds and policy bank bonds increasing while local government bonds saw a significant decrease [11][12] Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic sentiment continued to improve in June, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from May. The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.5%, also up by 0.2 percentage points [13] - The service sector PMI decreased slightly to 50.1%, reflecting seasonal trends, while the composite PMI output index rose to 50.7%, indicating ongoing expansion [13] Liquidity Observation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 1375.3 billion in the open market last week, indicating a tightening of liquidity despite the overall loose funding environment [24]

Group 1 - The concept of "American exceptionalism" highlights the unique attractiveness of the U.S. financial system, which allows American enterprises and government to access low-cost capital, creating a positive cycle that attracts global funds [2][5] - The U.S. bond market totals $29 trillion, accounting for 40% of global fixed-income assets, while the U.S. stock market has a total market capitalization of $65 trillion, representing a significant portion of the global equity market [5] - Over the past decade, U.S. corporate earnings growth has significantly outpaced other regions, with S&P 500 earnings per share doubling, compared to a much lower increase in the European Stoxx 600 index [5] Group 2 - Signs of challenges to "American exceptionalism" are emerging, including high tariffs on imports and concerns over the sustainability of federal debt, which could lead to a negative spiral of rising debt and interest rates [8][11] - Despite these challenges, there is currently no clear evidence of large-scale foreign investor withdrawal, as foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries remain near historical highs, and the S&P 500 index continues to reach new highs [11] - The average price-to-earnings ratio of S&P 500 constituents is currently 50% higher than that of the MSCI global index (excluding the U.S.), indicating a need for sustained earnings growth from U.S. companies [11] Group 3 - The "TINA" (There Is No Alternative) investment logic is being tested, with some strategists viewing this as an opportunity to rebalance portfolios, and U.S. companies are increasingly issuing euro-denominated bonds to hedge policy risks [14] - The debate surrounding "American exceptionalism" also touches on social equity, as income growth has disproportionately favored the top 1% of earners compared to the middle and lower classes [14] - Despite the challenges, some analysts argue that the U.S. retains structural advantages, including a growing labor force, high corporate profit margins, and a large, homogeneous domestic market [14]

日本30年期国债收益率上升10个基点，至2.965%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's economic development faces unprecedented opportunities and challenges amid significant global changes, necessitating a shift towards a new development pattern that emphasizes domestic circulation and technological innovation [2] Group 1: Economic Context - The global political and economic landscape is undergoing deep adjustments, with rising trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts impacting economic globalization [2] - Domestic economic growth is transitioning, requiring the cultivation of new growth drivers as traditional ones weaken [2] Group 2: Financing Mechanisms - Equity financing has historically supported technological innovation but has limitations, such as high entry barriers for early-stage companies and potential dilution of control for existing shareholders [2] - The bond market is emerging as a new engine for supporting technological innovation, offering large-scale, low-cost funding without altering equity structures [3] Group 3: Policy Development - The exploration of innovation bonds (科创债) began in 2015, evolving from pilot programs to regular issuance, with significant policy support from various regulatory bodies [4] - Key milestones include the introduction of dual innovation bonds in 2017 and the transition to regular issuance of innovation bonds in 2022 [4][5] Group 4: Market Growth - As of July 3, 2025, the cumulative issuance of innovation bonds exceeded 3.2 trillion yuan, with a stock size of approximately 2.3 trillion yuan, indicating their importance in capital markets [7] - The issuance pace accelerated significantly in 2025, with a record monthly issuance of 348.3 billion yuan in May [7] Group 5: Technological Advancements - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's electronic issuance system has improved the efficiency of bond issuance, reducing approval times to within three working days and decreasing preparation times for information disclosure by 60% [8] - The introduction of mixed innovation bonds aims to cater to different risk preferences among investors, enhancing the financing tools available for innovation enterprises [5] Group 6: ETF Development - The first batch of innovation bond ETFs was approved in a short timeframe, with significant participation from leading fund management companies, indicating strong market interest [9][10] - Despite the large cumulative scale of innovation bonds, trading activity remains low, suggesting potential for improved liquidity and pricing efficiency [9]

6月，债券二级市场整体交易活跃度回温，信用债成交金额同比与环比增幅显著。在宏观流动性环境和基本面共同作 用下，信用利差呈现震荡微幅收窄态势，月末利差水平为46.32bp。展望后市，受降息预期影响，基准利率仍有下行 空间，基本面修复节奏不确定性增加，信用债收益率大概率在宽幅波动中下行，且下行幅度也将超过基准利率，推 动信用利差继续震荡收窄。 信用利差方面，整体呈现震荡中微幅收窄的态势。与去年同期相比，上升11.68bp，而较上月末则下降1.17bp，月末 利差水平为46.32bp。 统计数据显示，债券二级市场6月总成交金额378,537.89亿元，同比、环比分别增长4.39%和12.78%。 按类型划分，利率债方面，6月成交金额229,219.09亿元，同比、环比分别增加2.19%和10.94%。信用债方面，6月成 交金额77,343.19亿元，同比、环比分别增加10.20%和18.42%。 从成交信用债的特征来看，产业债成交信用等级向AA+级及以上集中，城投债成交信用等级分布则保持均匀。在久 期方面，产业债成交久期延续向中长期延伸的趋势，城投债久期拉长趋势更为明显。具体到不同级别，产业债中AA 级别债券成交久 ...