2026 年 2 月 3 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：盘面震荡，跟随商品市场情绪波动 豆一：国储拍卖成交较好，影响偏多 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4393 -33（-0.75%） | 4387 +14（+0.32%） | | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2750 -26（-0.94%） | 2747 -9 （-0.33%） | | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1060 -4.25（-0.40%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 294.3 +0.7（+0.24%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | 3100～3120， | | | | | 山东 持平； | 持平； 5月M2605+50， 5-7月M2605+10， | 持平； 持平； ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 3 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：豆类市场在宏观情绪转弱与基本面影响下整体承压。基本面核心矛盾在于全球供应充裕与国内 节前备货平淡的对抗。随着春节临近油厂开机率下降，豆粕库存有望继续减少，或对价格及基差形成支撑， 但全球丰产压力与宏观偏空氛围将限制上行空间，预计短期豆粕价格维持震荡偏弱格局，关注南美天气最 终定产及国内节后补库需求的实际强度。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: The macro - sentiment has ebbed, and the geopolitical influence has declined [2]. - Soybean oil: It is undergoing high - level shock adjustments [2]. - Soybean meal: The market fluctuates, following the sentiment of the commodity market [2]. - Soybean: The state reserve auction had good results, with a positive impact [2]. - Corn: The callback range is limited [2]. - Sugar: It is running weakly [2]. - Cotton: It is expected to maintain a shock trend [2]. - Eggs: The spot market has weakened [2]. - Hogs: The pre - holiday price increase was less than expected, and the pressure has increased [2]. - Peanuts: They are fluctuating weakly [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental data**: Palm oil's main contract closed at 9,014 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 2.45% change, and 9,092 yuan/ton at night with a 0.87% change; soybean oil's main contract closed at 8,092 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 2.29% change, and 8,116 yuan/ton at night with a 0.30% change [4]. - **Macro and industry news**: On Monday, CBOT soybean and soybean oil futures closed lower. The decline in international crude oil prices and the increase in the estimated output of Brazilian soybeans were the main reasons [5][6]. 3.2 Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental data**: DCE soybean 2605 closed at 4393 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 0.75% change; DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2750 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 0.94% change [10]. - **Macro and industry news**: On Monday, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower. The decline in international crude oil prices and the increase in the estimated output of Brazilian soybeans were the main factors [12]. 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,261 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 0.70% change, and 2,267 yuan/ton at night with a 0.27% change; the closing price of C2605 was 2,260 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 0.92% change, and 2,270 yuan/ton at night with a 0.44% change [13]. - **Macro and industry news**: The prices of northern corn and southern ports showed different trends, and the prices of imported grains were also provided [14]. 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental data**: The raw sugar price was 14.26 cents/pound with a - 0.01 change; the mainstream spot price was 5300 yuan/ton with a - 20 change; the futures main contract price was 5207 yuan/ton with a - 41 change [16]. - **Macro and industry news**: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, the sugar output in India increased year - on - year, and the export volume in Brazil also increased [16]. 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental data**: CF2605 closed at 14,575 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 0.65% change, and 14635 yuan/ton at night with a 0.41% change; CY2603 closed at 20,405 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 0.44% change, and 20435 yuan/ton at night with a 0.15% change [21]. - **Macro and industry news**: The new trading volume of cotton spot was average, the price of pure - cotton yarn was stable, and ICE cotton futures continued to decline [22]. 3.6 Eggs - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of egg 2602 was 3,000 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.96% change; the closing price of egg 2603 was 3,002 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 1.51% change [27]. - **Trend intensity**: The trend intensity was - 1, indicating a weak trend [28]. 3.7 Hogs - **Fundamental data**: The Henan spot price was 12880 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 12100 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 12460 yuan/ton; the price of hog 2603 was 11220 yuan/ton, the price of hog 2605 was 11650 yuan/ton, and the price of hog 2607 was 12345 yuan/ton [31]. - **Trend intensity**: The trend intensity was - 1, indicating a weak trend [32]. 3.8 Peanuts - **Fundamental data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton, the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,200 yuan/ton; PK603 closed at 8,030 yuan/ton with a - 0.62% change, and PK605 closed at 7,902 yuan/ton with a - 0.18% change [34]. - **Spot market**: The prices of peanuts in different regions were stable, with low trading volumes [35].

Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨幅0.09%，收于2267 | | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价涨跌互现。东北地区深加工 | | | | | 企业收购价2177元/吨，较上周五跌13元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2306元/吨，较 | | | | | 上周五涨13元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示昨日南北港口北弱南稳。锦州港15%水二等玉米收 | | | | | 购价2280-2290元/吨，较上周五跌10元/吨；蛇口港玉米成交价2410元/吨，较上周 | | | | | 五持平。 | | | 玉米 | 区间 | 3、仓单方面，大商所数据显示截至2月2日，玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增减0 | | | | | 手，累计54881手。 | | | | | 4、售粮进度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the entire industry is provided in the report. However, individual outlooks for each commodity are as follows: - Oils and Fats: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to trade sideways [6]. - Protein Meal: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to trade sideways [9]. - Corn and Starch: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [12]. - Hogs: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the short - term, with potential for a turnaround in H2 2026 [13]. - Natural Rubber: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias [17]. - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the medium - term [19]. - Cotton: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms [20]. - Sugar: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms [21]. - Pulp: Expected to trade sideways [22]. - Double - Gum Paper: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [24]. - Logs: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the short - term [25]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has turned negative recently, affecting the prices of various agricultural products. - Different agricultural products are influenced by a combination of macro factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and seasonal patterns [1][6][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Macro sentiment has weakened, leading to a significant correction in oil prices. - **Logic**: Crude oil decline and overall commodity market weakness have affected sentiment. For soybeans, Argentina's drought may reduce production, while the US biodiesel policy is yet to be finalized. Palm oil lacks new positive news after the previous rally. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to gradually recover. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to trade sideways. Consider buying on dips for hedging [6]. Protein Meal - **View**: Market sentiment is weak, and both soybean and rapeseed meals are trading lower. - **Logic**: Internationally, the macro environment has cooled, and the US soybean export is weak, while Brazil's harvest is increasing. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal is under pressure, and the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to improve. - **Outlook**: Both soybean and rapeseed meals are expected to trade sideways [8][9]. Corn and Starch - **View**: Pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, and both futures and spot prices are trading weakly. - **Logic**: Downstream stocking is almost finished, and policy - grain auctions have lower trading rates. There are marginal negative factors such as increased upstream sales, sufficient downstream inventory, and the impact of imported grains. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [9][11][12]. Hogs - **View**: At the beginning of the month, the slaughter volume is slightly reduced, but inventory pressure remains. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large hogs will be slaughtered as the Spring Festival approaches. In the medium - term, supply will be excessive until April 2026. In the long - term, supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand and inventory show certain changes. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the short - term, with potential for a turnaround in H2 2026 [13]. Natural Rubber - **View**: The commodity atmosphere has turned negative, and rubber prices have followed suit. - **Logic**: The previous rally was driven by macro factors, and there has been no change in fundamentals. The current trading is mainly influenced by macro factors. Supply is relatively abundant, and the demand has not seen large - scale restocking. The most obvious negative factor is rapid inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: Although fundamental variables are limited, market attention has increased, and the market is expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias [15][16][17]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The medium - term logic remains unchanged. - **Logic**: The market was affected by the overall commodity sentiment, but the medium - term core logic of tight supply of butadiene in H1 2026 remains. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation of butadiene is expected to improve, but short - term adjustments are needed. It is expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the medium - term [19]. Cotton - **View**: It has adjusted downward following macro expectations, but the downward space is expected to be limited. - **Logic**: Supply - side processing is nearing completion, demand is weakening as the Spring Festival approaches, and inventory is still accumulating but at a slower pace. In the long - term, the market is expected to be tight - balanced in 25/26, and the planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decline. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms. Consider buying on dips [20]. Sugar - **View**: It is expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with major producers expected to increase production. - **Outlook**: Consider short - selling on rallies [21]. Pulp - **View**: While most commodities have declined significantly, pulp has shown resistance. - **Logic**: The overall commodity market has affected pulp, but its decline is relatively limited. Demand is seasonally weakening, and there are more negative factors, but the increase in import costs provides some support. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade sideways [22]. Double - Gum Paper - **View**: The decline in the commodity market has put pressure on double - gum paper. - **Logic**: The market is following the macro trend. Before the Spring Festival, there is no clear upward or downward driver, with abundant supply, weak demand, and reduced cost support. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [24]. Logs - **View**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the market is trading strongly. - **Logic**: The expected increase in the next - period foreign quotation and the decrease in arrivals at major ports have led to a stronger spot market. There are also potential positive factors in the delivery aspect. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the short - term [25]. 4. Commodity Index Data - On February 2, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities was 2420.95, down 3.75%. The commodity 20 index was 2773.66, down 4.55%, and the industrial products index was 2312.70, down 2.62%. - The agricultural products index was 936.74 on February 2, 2026, with a daily decline of 0.79%, a 5 - day decline of 0.76%, a monthly increase of 0.40%, and a YTD increase of 0.40% [185][187].

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 0.89%, closing at 28.9954 points [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.64%, while CBOT wheat futures dropped by 1.95% [1] - CBOT soybean futures declined by 0.38%, settling at $10.60 per bushel, with soybean meal futures rising by 0.34% and soybean oil futures decreasing by 0.50% [1] Group 2 - CBOT lean hog futures increased by 1.55%, live cattle futures rose by 1.12%, and feeder cattle futures gained 1.63% [1] - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 0.07%, and ICE white sugar futures decreased by 0.02% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures rose by 0.90%, while coffee "C" futures increased by 1.02%, and Robusta coffee futures dropped by 2.26% [1] Group 3 - New York cocoa futures increased by 1.25%, reaching $4,217 per ton, recovering from a low of $3,931 on January 30 [1] - London cocoa futures rose by 3.19% [1] - Chicago WCE canola futures decreased by 0.40%, and ICE cotton futures fell by 0.59% [1]

每经AI快讯，当地时间2月2日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌，大豆 期货跌0.40%报1060.00美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌0.64%报425.50美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货跌1.95%报 527.50美分/蒲式耳。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: None - **Hold (★★☆)**: None - **Weak Buy (★☆☆)**: Soybean, Soybean Meal, Egg - **Neutral (White Star)**: None - **Weak Sell (★☆☆)**: Live Pig - **Sell (★★☆)**: None - **Strong Sell (★★★)**: None [1] Core Views - The recent price movements of agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean oil, and palm oil, have been influenced by macro factors, such as the high - volatility and price correction of gold and silver, and the market's evaluation of the policy orientation of the Fed Chair nominated by Trump. Short - term attention should be paid to the macro - market guidance [2][4]. - The overall market was weak today due to the limit - down of metals such as gold, silver, and copper. Different agricultural products face different supply - demand situations, which affect their price trends. For example, Brazilian soybean production is expected to reach a record high, while the harvest progress is in the early stage. The supply of domestic cuisine is expected to become looser, and the demand outlook is neutral [3][6]. - The prices of different agricultural products are expected to have different trends in the short - term. Some may continue to be in a bottom - shock and weak pattern, while others may face price rebounds or declines in the future. For instance, short - term Dalian corn futures are expected to be in a weak shock pattern, and the price of live pigs may have a second bottom - seeking in the medium - to - long - term [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The recent rise in domestic soybeans has been driven by macro factors. As the macro - risk premium is given back, soybeans have quickly adjusted following the overall commodity atmosphere. Short - term attention should be paid to macro - market guidance [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The overall market was weak today due to the limit - down of metals. As of January 24, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 6.6%, higher than the previous week and the same period last year. Argentina is facing a high - temperature and dry situation, but rain is expected in February, which may put pressure on US soybeans. The domestic soybean crushing volume in February is expected to be about 5.2 million tons, a decrease both year - on - year and month - on - month. The short - term US soybeans and domestic soybean meal are expected to continue the bottom - shock and weak pattern [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The recent rise in oils has been driven by macro factors. As the macro - risk premium is given back, soybean oil and palm oil have quickly adjusted following the overall commodity atmosphere. Short - term attention should be paid to macro - market guidance [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The import of Australian rapeseed for crushing is 1 - 2 months later than expected. The crushing of Australian rapeseed from February to April will ease the tight supply of domestic rapeseed products, putting pressure on the recent futures prices of rapeseed products. The resumption of Sino - Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal trade is also expected. With the approaching Spring Festival, the remaining space for stocking demand is limited, and the demand outlook for rapeseed products is expected to be neutral. The futures prices of rapeseed products are expected to fluctuate in the bottom range [6]. Corn - The overall market was weak today due to the limit - down of metals, and the main corn 02603 contract fell 0.7%. The national grain sales progress is close to 60%, and the spot prices of corn in the north and at the northern ports are both declining. The Spring Festival stocking of downstream enterprises is basically over, and the trading is dull approaching the Spring Festival. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning on weekends and Monday was 316, 355, and 523 respectively, remaining stable at a low level. Short - term Dalian corn futures are expected to be in a weak shock pattern [7]. Live Pig - At the beginning of the month, the slaughter volume of breeding enterprises decreased, and the spot price of live pigs was adjusted strongly. The futures side was weak in shock, and some contracts continued to hit new lows. As the Spring Festival approaches, the industry will face accelerated slaughter before the Spring Festival. It is believed that the rebound highs of live pig futures and spot prices have been reached, and in the medium - to - long - term, there is a possibility of a second bottom - seeking for pig prices, and it is expected that there will still be a low point in pig prices in the first half of next year [8]. Egg - The high - point of the pre - Spring Festival spot price of eggs driven by stocking demand has been reached, and the recent spot price of eggs has started to weaken, and it is also expected to be relatively weak during the post - Spring Festival consumption off - season. Since January, the spot price of eggs has increased significantly, which has promoted the repair of the industry's breeding profit and the repair of the replenishment sentiment. The chick - replenishment volume in January showed a significant month - on - month improvement but a slight year - on - year decline. There is still upward - repair momentum for egg prices in the first half of 2026, mainly due to the continuous decline in the in - production inventory in the first half of 2026 caused by the low replenishment volume in the second half of 2025. The futures market has already reflected the expectation of the short - term weakness of the spot market in advance, and the subsequent trading strategy is to wait for the spot low point around the Spring Festival and then allocate long positions in the egg futures contracts in the first half of 2026 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the recent drought in Argentina, the supply pressure has weakened. It is expected that US corn will oscillate strongly at the bottom. The supply of corn in North China has increased, and the spot price of corn is stable. The price of corn in Northeast China has declined, and the spot price is still weak in the short term. The purchase price at the northern port has dropped today. The price of wheat in North China is strong, and the price gap between Northeast corn and North China corn has widened. Recently, the market has been trading on the increased grain sales in North China before the Spring Festival. There is still selling pressure on Northeast corn later. The rebound space of the corn spot price is limited. There is still room for the 03 corn contract to decline, but the decline space of the 07 corn contract is limited. The 03 starch contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4][7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: The prices of various futures contracts of corn and corn starch, including C2601, C2605, C2509, CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509, have declined. The trading volume of most contracts has increased, and the positions of some contracts have changed. For example, the trading volume of C2605 has increased by 33.44%, and the position has decreased by 2.13% [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn in different regions have changed, with some prices falling and some rising. The basis of corn and starch in different regions has also been reported. The spot prices of starch in different regions have also changed, with some prices remaining unchanged and some rising [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads of corn and starch in different periods and across varieties have changed. For example, the price spread of C01 - C05 is -11, with a change of 9; the price spread of CS01 - CS05 is -8, with a change of -5 [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Corn**: The drought in Argentina has led to a rebound in the bottom of US corn, but it is still oscillating at the bottom due to global supply pressure. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The spot price of corn in the northern port has declined, and the price in the Northeast has fallen back on the weekend. The supply in North China is relatively small, and the spot price is strong. The price gap between North China wheat and corn is still large, and corn is still cost - effective. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The supply of corn in the Northeast has increased recently, and the price has dropped. The port inventory is low, and the purchase price at the northern port has declined today. The 03 contract is oscillating and falling back, and the spot basis is strengthening. The market is currently concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the inventory building of downstream enterprises [4][7]. - **Starch**: The number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has increased, and the spot price of corn in Shandong is stable. The spot price of starch in Northeast China is stable. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The current starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is still strong, much higher than last year. The spot price gap between corn and starch is at a low level. The corn in North China is stable in the short term, and the Northeast corn is stable. Due to the end of pre - Spring Festival stocking, enterprises are still in a loss. The 03 starch contract is oscillating weakly following the corn. The price of North China corn has started to rise, and the starch spot price has stabilized in the short term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 03 US corn contract is supported at 420 cents per bushel. Long positions should be continued to be established in the 07 and 05 corn contracts [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Adopt a short - term cumulative put option strategy and conduct rolling operations [12]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include charts of the northern port's corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 price spread, corn starch 5 - 9 price spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract price spread, which visually show the price changes of relevant products over time [16][17][19][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the palm oil industry. Instead, it suggests a wait - and - see approach for palm oil futures [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January 26 to February 2, 2026, the palm oil futures and spot markets showed a pattern of "rising first and then adjusting, with high - level fluctuations". The core drivers were the realization of seasonal production cuts in Malaysia, the recovery of exports, and the expectation of an increase in Indonesia's export tax. Later in the week, the cooling of the macro - sentiment and profit - taking led to a price correction, but the overall strength remained unchanged [1]. - The supply side is contracting. According to SPPOMA, Malaysia's palm oil production from January 1 - 25 decreased by 14.81% month - on - month. Seasonal production cuts accelerated, and labor shortages restricted the harvesting efficiency. January's production may hit a new low for the year [1]. - The demand side is recovering. According to ITS/AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 25 increased by 7.97% - 9.97% month - on - month. Pre - Ramadan stocking in India and pre - purchase before the increase in Indonesia's export tax led to continuous improvement in exports [1]. - Indonesia plans to raise the special export tax from 10% to 12.5% - 15% starting from March, which is expected to force international buyers to stock up in advance and boost short - term demand expectations. However, short - term profit - taking by long - position traders on the futures market led to a rapid price decline. It is recommended to wait and see, waiting for funds to enter and the price to restart [1]. - Factors to watch include Malaysia's palm oil production and export data, as well as the repair of the soybean - palm oil price spread [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - From January 26 - 29, bulls dominated, and the price rose for three consecutive days. From January 30 to February 2, it fluctuated at a high level, encountering resistance at 9396 yuan and then falling back. Funds were mostly long but cautious [1]. - The policy expectation of Indonesia's export tax increase supports short - term demand, but short - term profit - taking led to a price drop, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Weekly Fundamental Data Changes - For the 5 - month (May) 24 - degree palm oil, the CNF in South China is 1100, the forward exchange rate is 6.9075, the import cost is 9107, the disk price is 9010, and the profit against the disk is - 97 [3]. - For the 9 - month (September) 24 - degree palm oil, the CNF in South China is 1115, the forward exchange rate is 6.8646, the import cost is 9174, the disk price is 8950, and the profit against the disk is - 224 [3].