Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed slight recovery on November 20, with the non-ferrous sector opening high and fluctuating, as evidenced by the significant trading volume of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) which rose by 0.52% and reached a trading volume of over 90 million yuan [1] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF index components mostly surged, with Zhongkuang Resources rising over 5%, while other stocks like Northern Rare Earth and Huayou Cobalt also saw gains exceeding 1% [3] Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - On November 19, lithium carbonate futures prices broke through 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating a clear recovery in spot lithium carbonate prices. Ganfeng Lithium's chairman stated that if demand growth exceeds 30% to 40% next year, prices could potentially exceed 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton due to supply constraints [2] Group 3: Supply Chain and Pricing Trends - The supply chain for non-ferrous metals is facing disruptions, with several large mines experiencing operational issues, which highlights the vulnerability of global non-ferrous resource supply [6] - The copper market is expected to see average prices reach 4.55 USD per pound by 2026 due to supply concerns stemming from accidents at major mines [5] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other industries this year, with a year-to-date increase of 79% for the CITIC non-ferrous metals index, significantly leading other sectors [5] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its high "gold-copper content" of 46%, making it a leading choice among similar investment products [12] Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations - The geopolitical landscape and resource security concerns are expected to drive demand for strategic commodities, with a notable increase in green demand for copper and aluminum anticipated by 2030 [8] - The ongoing industrialization in emerging economies and the reshaping of trade patterns are likely to provide new growth opportunities for commodity demand, particularly in countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Market sentiment is cautious, with copper prices oscillating. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract is expected to range between 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton. Follow demand changes and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [1]. Zinc - The fundamentals offer limited support for continuous upward movement of SHFE zinc, which is likely to oscillate in the short term. The main contract is expected to range between 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton. Look out for demand improvement and non - recessionary interest - rate cut expectations [3]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains in a supply - demand surplus, with prices likely to remain weak. The main contract is expected to range between 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum is caught between macro - level positives and weak fundamentals, with the medium - term supply expected to be tight [4]. Tin - Tin ore supply is tight, and demand shows regional differences. With positive semiconductor sentiment, long positions can be held. Monitor macro changes and Myanmar's supply recovery [6]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term ADC12 price will stay firm, supported by costs. The main contract is expected to range between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Track scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory changes [9]. Nickel - The nickel market faces macro pressure, and the fundamental improvement is limited. The medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to range between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian policies [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has insufficient macro - level drivers and weak demand. The supply pressure remains. The main contract is expected to range between 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Monitor steel - mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market shows strong short - term momentum. The market may continue to be strong, followed by wide - range oscillations. Be cautious when chasing long positions at current levels [15]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range. Futures may decline. Monitor inventory pressure, spot support, and demand orders [16]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, mainly between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Consider short - selling or hedging at high prices [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 86,715 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The refined - scrap spread increased by 8.98% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, imports were 0.3343 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.45% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, refined zinc production was 0.6172 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, imports were 0.0227 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [3]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.42%. Alumina prices in different regions were mostly stable [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production was 7.7853 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7421 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [4]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 291,500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.73% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09% [6]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained at 21,450 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread in different regions decreased [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.645 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. The regenerated aluminum alloy开工率 decreased [9]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 117,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.56%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased to 897 yuan/nickel point [11]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production in October was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Imports in September were 38,164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained at 12,700 yuan/ton. The raw material prices such as nickel ore and chromium iron decreased [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 1.8217 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. Indonesia's production was 0.4235 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price rose to 88,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.72%. The lithium ore price also increased [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. Demand was 126,961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70% [15]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: Polysilicon spot prices were stable, while futures prices rose to 54,625 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts increased [16]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74%. Monthly production was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08% [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: Industrial silicon spot prices were unchanged, while futures prices rose to 9,390 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts changed [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The national开工率 was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98% [17].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the rating for lithium carbonate due to unexpected demand from energy storage orders [5] Core Insights - The aluminum and copper sectors are fundamentally solid, driven by demand growth from the energy transition, with global copper demand expected to grow by 3% and prices potentially reaching $11,000 [4][5] - The photovoltaic (PV) industry faces severe overcapacity, with supply far exceeding demand, leading to widespread losses among companies [8][9] - The steel industry shows strong demand resilience, with no significant need for production cuts, while the cement industry struggles with low capacity utilization and regional management challenges [6][7] Summary by Sections Aluminum and Copper - The copper market is tightening, with global mine supply expected to increase by only 1% in 2026, while demand is projected to grow by 3% [4] - The aluminum sector mirrors copper's demand dynamics, with limited new capacity from Indonesia and Mozambique [4] Lithium and Energy Storage - Lithium carbonate's rating has been upgraded due to a surge in energy storage orders, with significant increases in production utilization rates for upstream materials [5][14] - The lithium battery market's demand has exceeded expectations, with total demand rising to 2,000-2,270 GWh [14] Steel and Cement - The steel industry maintains strong demand, with no immediate need for production cuts, while the cement sector faces challenges due to low utilization rates and regional management difficulties [6][7] Photovoltaic Industry - The PV industry is experiencing a critical turning point, with overcapacity issues leading to significant losses, despite expectations for gradual improvement in profitability starting in 2025 [8][13] - Government intervention is necessary to address overcapacity, as market-driven measures have proven insufficient [9][11] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that global PV demand growth may slow, with China's installation expected to stabilize between 200-250 GW in the coming years [12] - The lithium battery supply chain is expected to see a 25% increase in global production by 2026, with a corresponding rise in prices for certain materials [20]

Core Insights - The global gold market in 2025 has experienced a significant bull market characterized by a "stair-step breakthrough and pullback" pattern, with gold prices reaching a historical peak of $4,380 per ounce in October before retreating below $4,000 in early November, and currently trading above $4,100, marking an annual increase of over 50%, the strongest performance since 1979 [1][2][3] Price Movement Analysis - Gold prices began the year at $2,800 per ounce, rising to $3,420 by the end of March, a quarterly increase of 22.1%, the best performance since Q2 2016 [1] - In Q2, gold prices fluctuated between $3,400 and $3,600, supported by an 11% drop in the US dollar index, while global gold ETF holdings increased by 187 tons [2] - Q3 saw a surge in demand, with total gold demand reaching 1,313 tons and total value at $146 billion, driven by a 47% increase in investment demand [2] - In Q4, gold prices peaked at $4,380 per ounce in mid-October but retreated to around $3,968 due to market corrections and a rebound in the dollar index [2] Driving Factors Behind Gold Prices - The current bull market in gold is driven by three core factors: geopolitical risks, central bank purchases, and global liquidity [3][4] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East instability, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Central banks have significantly increased gold reserves, with net purchases of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting concerns over the US dollar's credibility [4][5] Investment Demand Dynamics - Private sector investment demand has surged, with Q3 global gold investment demand reaching 537 tons, a 47% year-on-year increase, driven by ETF purchases and physical gold demand [5] - The demand for gold bars and coins reached 316 tons in Q3, with significant contributions from India and China [5] Macroeconomic Influences - Macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's policy shift, global debt pressures, and geopolitical risks are key drivers for gold prices [6] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts and the decline in the dollar index have further supported gold's appeal [6] - Rising global debt levels and inflation concerns position gold as a valuable asset for hedging against economic instability [6] Future Outlook for Precious Metals - Analysts predict that 2026 will see a "high-level fluctuation with long-term positive trends" for precious metals, with gold potentially reaching $4,500 to $4,800 per ounce [7] - Other precious metals like silver and platinum are also expected to show significant investment value, driven by industrial demand and market dynamics [8] - The overall strategy for 2026 suggests a shift from "gold dominance" to a more balanced allocation across various precious metals [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the precious metals market, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals in the long - term, short - term macro uncertainties about December interest rate cuts may lead to continued volatile adjustments. It is recommended to pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average [3]. - In the copper market, concerns about non - farm data affecting interest rate cuts have led to capital reduction and price drops. Inventory increases and narrowing premiums reflect fundamental pressures, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - In the aluminum market, Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a long - term oscillatory upward trend, but short - term weak fundamentals and a lower probability of December interest rate cuts may lead to profit - taking by previous funds, resulting in subsequent oscillatory consolidation. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the expiration of a large number of warehouse receipts will exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand [36]. - In the zinc market, the cooling of interest rate cut expectations and a significant drop in November TC due to intense competition for ore in the smelting sector have increased the willingness of smelters to reduce or halt production in November. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - In the nickel and stainless - steel market, nickel - iron prices have been declining due to weak downstream demand. The downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure, and downstream demand remains weak [75]. - In the tin market, due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations, with support around 276,000 yuan [88]. - In the lithium carbonate market, strong demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors, combined with a slowdown in supply growth, may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - In the silicon industry chain, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook and wide - range, weak oscillations [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, due to unclear prospects of December interest rate cuts, precious metals may continue to oscillate and adjust. In the long term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up prices [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures main - continuous prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, gold long - term fund holdings, and SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [4][12][16]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Market concerns about non - farm data and inventory increases have led to price drops, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - **Price Data**: Spot prices from various sources (Shanghai Non - ferrous, Shanghai Wumaoyi, etc.) have small daily increases. Futures prices of Shanghai copper and London copper show different trends, with Shanghai copper rising and London copper falling [22][23]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventories show different changes, with some warehouse receipts decreasing and LME copper inventories increasing [32][34]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai aluminum may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, while alumina is in an oversupply situation [36]. - **Price Data**: Aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [38][45]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum inventories show different changes, and alumina warehouse receipts increase slightly [53]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: Cooling interest rate cut expectations and a drop in November TC have increased the willingness of smelters to cut production. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - **Price Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices show different trends, with Shanghai zinc rising and LME zinc falling slightly [60]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts decrease, and LME zinc inventories increase [72]. Nickel and Stainless - Steel - **Price Outlook**: Nickel - iron prices decline due to weak downstream demand, and the downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure [75]. - **Price Data**: Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [76]. - **Inventory Data**: Nickel warehouse receipts decrease [76]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [88]. - **Price Data**: Shanghai tin and London tin futures prices show different trends, with Shanghai tin rising and London tin falling slightly [89]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decrease, and LME tin inventories remain unchanged [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: Strong demand and slow supply growth may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - **Price Data**: Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices show an upward trend [105][109]. - **Inventory Data**: Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increase slightly, and social and downstream inventories decrease [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook [116]. - **Price Data**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon - related product prices show different trends, with some remaining stable and some changing slightly [116]. - **Inventory Data**: Industrial silicon social inventory and polysilicon total inventory show different trends [134][143].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For precious metals, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center in the long - term, the unclear prospect of interest rate cuts in December and short - term technical weakness suggest a possible short - term adjustment. Attention should be paid to the retracement of the 200 - day moving average [3]. - For copper, as the delivery date approaches, the registered warrant volume has rapidly increased. The spot price of electrolytic copper has declined, the premium has strengthened, and the purchasing sentiment has increased but not significantly. The futures price has shown narrow - range fluctuations and lacks driving forces [15]. - For aluminum, the expected tightening of overseas electrolytic aluminum supply has given rise to a bullish sentiment among funds, leading to an influx of capital into Shanghai aluminum futures and an increase in prices. However, downstream demand may not support such high prices, so Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Alumina has seen price - increasing orders due to environmental production restrictions and short - covering, but it still follows an oversupply logic. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up characteristics with Shanghai aluminum and has strong downside support [33][34]. - For zinc, the expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled down, and the smelting sector's willingness to reduce or halt production in November has increased due to intense competition for ores and a significant decline in TC. The impact needs to be observed through inventory changes in November. There is a possibility of inventory reduction if demand remains stable. Currently, there are significant differences between bulls and bears, and the bottom space can be observed at the end of the month [57]. - For nickel, the expectation of interest rate cuts in December is uncertain, and the progress of Sino - US tariffs has affected risk preferences. Nickel ore prices may remain strong in the short term due to the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the impact of typhoons on production and shipping. The prices of nickel - iron and stainless steel have declined due to weak downstream demand, and both are experiencing inventory accumulation [73]. - For tin, although there has been some resumption of production in Yunnan, the supply is still weaker than demand due to the under - expected resumption of production in Wa State and a sharp reduction in concentrate imports. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with support predicted around 276,000 yuan [88]. - For lithium carbonate, the price has far exceeded expectations, and downstream buyers have no intention to replenish inventory. There is an expectation of a decline in production in December. Technically, the price has broken through the 90,000 - yuan mark and reached 95,000 yuan, posing a high risk for chasing the price. There is an over - rising sentiment, and the risk of chasing the price should be vigilant [104]. - For the silicon industry chain, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, and it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook and wide - range weak fluctuations [115]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: Short - term adjustment possible, long - term upward trend supported by central bank purchases and investment demand [3]. - **Market Data**: Included price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, their ratios, and relationships with the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, and long - term fund holdings [4][8][11]. Copper - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of copper have declined, with different degrees of decline in various regions. The premium has also decreased [18]. - **Futures Market**: Futures prices have declined, and the trading volume and open interest have shown certain trends. The registered warrant volume has increased significantly [16][19][29]. - **Import and Processing**: Copper import losses have increased, and the TC of copper concentrates has remained unchanged [24]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Spread**: The scrap - to - refined spread has decreased, indicating a reduced price advantage of scrap copper [28]. Aluminum - **Futures Prices**: The prices of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures have declined to varying degrees [35]. - **Price Spreads**: There are differences in price spreads between different contracts of aluminum and alumina, as well as between aluminum and alumina [38][40]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of aluminum in different regions have declined, and the basis has also changed [44]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum has changed, and the alumina warehouse receipt inventory has remained stable [51]. Zinc - **Futures Prices**: The prices of Shanghai zinc futures have generally declined, except for the second - consecutive contract which has increased slightly [58]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of zinc have declined, and the premium has changed significantly [66]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc has increased [70]. Nickel - **Futures Market**: The prices of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel have declined, and the trading volume has increased while the open interest has decreased. The warehouse receipt volume has increased [74]. - **Downstream Market**: The prices of nickel - iron and stainless steel have declined, and the downstream demand is weak. Both are experiencing inventory accumulation [73]. Tin - **Futures Market**: The prices of Shanghai tin and LME tin have changed slightly, with Shanghai tin showing a slight decline [89]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of tin and tin concentrates have declined slightly, and the prices of solder products have remained stable [93]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai tin has increased, while the LME tin inventory has decreased [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Prices**: The prices of lithium carbonate futures have generally increased compared to the previous week, but there has been a slight decline on the day [105]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various lithium - related products have increased, and the price differences between different grades have also changed [109]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the social inventory of lithium carbonate have decreased [113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions have changed slightly, and the basis has increased. The futures prices have declined [115]. - **Polysilicon and Downstream Products**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips, and components have shown certain trends, and the inventory of polysilicon has increased [123][133].

11月18日，云南铜业盘中下跌2.01%，截至09:55，报17.02元/股，成交2.30亿元，换手率0.67%，总市值 341.02亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出3876.66万元，特大单买入1034.39万元，占比4.49%，卖出4407.01万 元，占比19.15%；大单买入4135.61万元，占比17.97%，卖出4639.66万元，占比20.16%。 云南铜业今年以来股价涨42.43%，近5个交易日跌1.45%，近20日跌6.43%，近60日涨22.53%。 今年以来云南铜业已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为10月10日。 资料显示，云南铜业股份有限公司位于云南省昆明市盘龙区华云路1号中铜大厦，成立日期1998年5月15 日，上市日期1998年6月2日，公司主营业务涉及铜的勘探、采选、冶炼,贵金属和稀散金属的提取与加 工,硫化工以及贸易等领域。主营业务收入构成为：阴极铜74.00%，其他产品12.42%，贵金属12.24%， 硫酸1.33%。 云南铜业所属申万行业为：有色金属-工业金属-铜。所属概念板块包括：有色铜、黄金股、稀缺资源、 期货概念、中盘等。 截至11月10日，云南铜业股东户 ...

资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1534.43万元，特大单买入870.48万元，占比7.50%，卖出1477.67万元， 占比12.73%；大单买入1097.24万元，占比9.45%，卖出2024.47万元，占比17.44%。 北方铜业今年以来股价涨85.31%，近5个交易日跌3.59%，近20日跌10.49%，近60日涨23.38%。 11月18日，北方铜业盘中下跌2.06%，截至09:43，报14.25元/股，成交1.16亿元，换手率0.43%，总市值 271.42亿元。 截至11月10日，北方铜业股东户数18.69万，较上期减少1.23%；人均流通股10190股，较上期增加 1.24%。2025年1月-9月，北方铜业实现营业收入199.73亿元，同比增长9.89%；归母净利润6.89亿元，同 比增长26.10%。 分红方面，北方铜业A股上市后累计派现6.01亿元。近三年，累计派现3.87亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，北方铜业十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第六大流 通股东，持股1490.68万股，相比上期增加359.78万股。南方中证1000ETF（512100）位居第九大流通股 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the precious metals market is experiencing volatility, with a recommendation to hold positions and wait for the next upward wave. Gold is suggested to be bought around $3950 per ounce, with expectations of a 2-3 month consolidation period due to previous rapid price increases [4] - Copper prices are expected to stabilize due to supply disruptions, with a recommendation to buy on dips. The anticipated supply-demand tightness in 2026 is highlighted, driven by production cuts from major suppliers [5] - Aluminum prices are supported by rigid supply despite the end of the peak season, with downstream processing rates slightly increasing. However, a structural divergence in demand is expected [5] - Tin prices are projected to remain high due to ongoing supply tightness, with a decline in domestic refined tin production noted. The demand from AI and semiconductor sectors is expected to drive growth [6] - The lithium market is experiencing strong demand driven by the energy storage sector, with optimistic projections for future growth in storage capacity [6][8] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 0.8%, ranking 18th among sectors [15] Section 2: Prices - LME copper increased by 1.41%, aluminum decreased by 0.12%, zinc decreased by 1.70%, lead increased by 1.03%, and tin increased by 2.90% this week. Precious metals saw COMEX gold rise by 1.91% and silver by 4.51% [21] Section 3: Inventory - Global visible inventories showed an increase in copper by 18,188 tons, aluminum by 4,122 tons, zinc by 6,560 tons, lead by 27,899 tons, tin by 159 tons, and nickel by 1,379 tons [33][35] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Zhongkuang Resources, and others for potential investment opportunities [9]

Core Viewpoint - Everbright Securities maintains an "overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals industries, with a ranking of industry prosperity as follows: copper and aluminum > gold > steel [1][2]. Supply - Supply growth for steel, copper, and aluminum remains constrained. For steel, energy consumption and carbon emissions will continue to restrict supply, with crude steel output facing pressure. Future policies similar to the 2017 supply-side reform need to be monitored [3]. - For copper, Freeport and Teck Resources have lowered their 2026 production guidance, leading to increased disruptions at the mining level, with a projected 0.1% year-on-year decline in global refined copper output for 2026 [3]. - Aluminum production in China is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2026 due to capacity constraints [3]. Demand - Demand recovery will contribute to price elasticity for steel, copper, and aluminum. The real estate market is still expected to stabilize, but the World Steel Association forecasts a 1% year-on-year decline in steel demand in China for 2026 [4]. - For copper, the demand from the new energy sector is anticipated to be the main growth driver, with a projected 1.5% increase in global copper demand for 2026 [4]. - Aluminum demand in China is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2026, driven by manufacturing sectors such as new energy vehicles and electricity, which offset declines in real estate [4]. Gold - The demand for gold is expected to rise due to ETF investments and central bank purchases. The U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, combined with increased global uncertainty, is likely to boost gold ETF investment demand [5]. Recommended Stocks - For steel, companies such as Baosteel and Jiuli Special Materials are recommended, with a focus on Erdos, CITIC Special Steel, and Hualing Steel [6]. - In the copper sector, Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are recommended, with attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Western Mining, and Jincheng Mining [6]. - For aluminum, China Hongqiao is recommended, with a focus on Yun Aluminum, Shenhuo, and Zhongfu Industrial [6]. - In the gold sector, Zijin Mining is recommended, with attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Zijin Gold International [6].