豆粕生猪：利空情绪消退 豆粕波幅收窄 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 元日期货 | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 曲位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | DCE豆粕: 01 | 7月25日 | 元/吨 | 3059 | 3050 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | DCE中期: 05 | 7月25日 | 元/吨 | 2759 | 2753 | 6.00 | 0.22% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 7月25日 | 元/吨 | 3021 | 3025 | -4.00 | -0.13% | | | CZCE菜籽箱: 01 | 7月25日 | 元/吨 | 2405 | 2412 | -7.00 | -0.29% | | 期货 | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 7月25日 | 元/吨 | 2373 ...

Report on Different Commodities 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Pig**: The current situation of oversupply continues. The pig price is expected to remain weak next week, but the policy-driven inventory reduction expectation boosts the futures price. It is recommended to observe the market situation [5][6]. - **Egg**: As the egg price reaches a high level, the market acceptance is limited, and the market trading slows down. It is recommended to enter the market at a low price and focus on the 01 contract [20]. - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic policies have new changes, and the short - term is a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended to make long - term layouts at low prices [33]. - **Palm Oil**: The decline in Malaysian palm oil exports and increase in production suppress the futures price, while the domestic price is relatively firm. The import profit is improving, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term [46]. 3. Summary by Commodity Pig - **Demand**: In the hot weather, pork consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is limited. The weekly slaughter volume of the sample is 1.5144 million heads, a 3.02% increase from last week [5]. - **Supply**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs requires reasonable elimination of sows and reduction of secondary fattening. The inventory of sows in 123 large - scale farms in June increased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year. In July, the risk of swine fever persists, and the elimination of sows may increase [5]. - **Inventory**: In June, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 0.30% month - on - month and 5.63% year - on - year. In May, the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 0.57% month - on - month and 7.00% year - on - year [5]. - **Profit**: The pig - raising profit is still divided. The average 30 - week profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 72.10 yuan per head, a decrease of 42.76 yuan per head compared with last week. The average 30 - week loss of purchasing piglets is 117.52 yuan per head, an increase of 45.68 yuan per head compared with last week [5]. - **Conclusion**: The national average pig - slaughtering price this week is 14.25 yuan/kg, a 2.13% decrease from last week and a 25.39% decrease year - on - year. The pig price rebounds and then continues to fall, and the large - scale farms accelerate the slaughtering rhythm [6]. Egg - **Demand**: The egg sales volume in five representative sales areas is 5,875.68 tons, a 2.05% increase from last week. The egg price in the production area is strong, and the domestic sales in the production area are good [19]. - **Supply**: The shipment volume of 15 representative markets in the main production areas is 6,312.25 tons, a 1.33% increase from last week and a 16.81% decrease year - on - year. The shipment volume first increases and then decreases this week [19]. - **Inventory**: As of Thursday this week, the production - link inventory is 0.50 days, a 13.8% decrease from last week; the circulation - link inventory is 0.58 days, a 21.62% decrease from last week. It is expected that the inventory in the breeding and circulation links will increase slightly next week [19]. - **Profit**: The cost of egg - laying chicken farming this week is 3.54 yuan/jin, a 0.28% increase from last week. The farming profit is - 0.32 yuan/jin, a 58.44% increase from last week. The egg price has increased significantly this week, and the farming profit has increased significantly [20]. Soybean Meal - **Demand**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' policy is negative for soybean meal demand [32]. - **Supply**: As of the week of July 18, the good - quality rate of soybeans in 18 US states is 68%, a 2% decrease from the previous week, the same as last year. The proportion of high - quality soybeans in Argentina is 58%, the same as the previous week and higher than last year. The inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills is 7.12 million tons, with a slight decrease week - on - week and an increase month - on - month [32]. - **Inventory**: The domestic soybean meal inventory is 1.01 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons week - on - week and 500,000 tons month - on - month, but a decrease of 280,000 tons year - on - year [32]. - **Profit**: The profit from importing Brazilian and Argentine soybeans for oil extraction first rises and then falls this week [32]. Palm Oil - **Demand**: Indonesia is studying increasing the biodiesel blending ratio, and the palm oil imports of India and China have increased significantly [46]. - **Supply**: From July 1 - 20, the yield of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches increased by 7.03%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.16%, and the palm oil production increased by 6.19%. It is still in the traditional production - increasing period [46]. - **Inventory**: The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions is 591,400 tons, a 5.04% increase from last week and a 23.49% increase from last year [46]. - **Profit**: As of July 24, the FOB price of palm oil for the August shipment is 1,039 US dollars/ton, an increase of 29 US dollars/ton from last week. The import cost is 9,145 yuan/ton, an increase of 214 yuan/ton. The hedging profit is - 41 yuan/ton, an increase of 134 yuan/ton from last week [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][10] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern. The US cotton balance sheet is hard to improve significantly, and the price will fluctuate with the macro - market. In China, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the supply is expected to be tight before the new cotton is on the market. However, the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and weak terminal demand restrict the upward space of cotton prices. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] - For sugar, the global sugar market is expected to have an increased production in the new season, which restricts the rebound of the raw sugar price. In China, the domestic sugar spot price is firm due to fast sales, but the high import profit and expected increase in imports put pressure on the Zhengzhou sugar price [6] - For pulp, the short - term anti - involution policy boosts the market sentiment, and the pulp price rebounds. The supply pressure remains in the second half of the year due to high imports and domestic capacity expansion, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. The improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 14,160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.14%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,431 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,563 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. From 7.11 - 7.17, the net signing of US 2024/25 annual upland cotton was - 7416 tons, and the shipment was 41,912 tons, up 18% from the previous week. The net signing of this year's Pima cotton was 1247 tons, and the shipment was 1134 tons, down 37% from the previous week. New - year upland cotton signing was 30,073 tons, and new - year Pima cotton signing was 3946 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply - side weather narrative is insufficient this year, and the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be supply - loose. The US cotton balance sheet is hard to improve, and the price will fluctuate with the macro - market. Domestically, the fast inventory reduction, delayed quota issuance, and un - priced contracts drive the Zhengzhou cotton price up. But the strong new cotton harvest expectation, weak terminal demand, and inventory accumulation restrict the upward space. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short - term, the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract may continue to rise due to capital influence. In the long - term, the sufficient global supply and potential policies limit the upward space of the 01 contract [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5866 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Russia, some areas are affected by drought, with 39% and 59% of beet - planting areas in Krasnodar and Rostov affected respectively [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price rebound is restricted by the expected global production increase. The domestic sugar spot price is firm, but the high import profit and expected import increase put pressure on the Zhengzhou sugar price [6] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short - term, the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended. In the long - term, the sugar price is in a downward cycle, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5456 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (+0.78%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5360 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price was mostly stable, with some varieties having weak high - price transactions [8] Market Analysis - The short - term anti - involution policy boosts the market sentiment, and the low - priced pulp rebounds. In terms of supply, the wood pulp imports increased in the first half of 2025, and domestic capacity expansion is expected to reduce imports in the second half. But the slow de - stocking and high port inventory mean supply pressure remains. In terms of demand, the pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is also weak due to the off - season [9] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction is hard to ease, and the pulp price may stay at the bottom. Short - selling on rallies after the macro - stimulus ends is recommended [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the bean meal market, the new - season US soybeans are expected to have a good harvest despite a decrease in the sown area due to high yields. In China, the oil mills are in a state of inventory accumulation, while the breeding industry is in a seasonal consumption off - peak. The overall supply is relatively loose, and the spot price remains stable. However, the bean meal futures price rose last week under the influence of macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the growth of new - season US soybeans [2] - For the corn market, the trade inventory in China's main production areas has decreased after a wave of concentrated grain sales, and the available corn in the market has reduced. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and purchase on demand, and deep - processing enterprises also adjust their quotations slightly. The impact of import corn auction on prices has weakened [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2509 contract was 3025 yuan/ton yesterday, down 70 yuan/ton or 2.26% from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2682 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton or 2.76% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 2930 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2830 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2850 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2630 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: Brazil's National Grain Exporters Association expects the soybean export volume in July 2025 to be 12.11 million tons, lower than the previous estimate and June's export volume but up 26% year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - The weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is favorable, and the new - season US soybeans are expected to have a good harvest. In China, the supply is loose, and the spot price is stable. The bean meal futures price was affected by macro - sentiment last week. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the growth of new - season US soybeans [2] Strategy - The strategy for the bean meal market is to be cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2318 yuan/ton yesterday, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2669 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.22% from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - Market Information: From July 1st to 20th, Russia's corn export volume was 273,000 tons, up 13% year - on - year. The number of export destinations decreased from 10 to 3, with Iran and Turkey as the main buyers [3] Market Analysis - In China, the trade inventory in the main production areas has decreased, and the available corn in the market has reduced. Feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises purchase on demand, and the impact of import corn auctions on prices has weakened [4] Strategy - The strategy for the corn market is to be cautiously bearish [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn 9 - month contract is in a downward trend, with the futures price showing a volatile and weak performance in the short - term due to technical resistance, while the spot price in some areas has rebounded [2] - The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile. Uncertainties in cost and supply, potential large - scale soybean purchases, and the promotion of soybean meal substitution have led to a decline in prices, and short - term trading strategies are recommended [2] - The oil market is predicted to be volatile. The international palm oil production and export situation is changing, and the domestic oil market shows a strong and volatile trend. A long - only strategy and 9 - 1 positive spread holding are recommended [2] - The egg market is expected to be volatile. The future demand is favorable for egg prices, but due to high inventory and other supply issues, the peak price is likely to be lower than last year [3] - The pig market is predicted to be volatile. Terminal consumption is weak, the market supply exceeds demand, and it will take time to resolve over - capacity issues [3] Group 3: Summary According to Market Information - From July 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.19% month - on - month, but the export volume decreased by 7.31% month - on - month [4] - By 2034, the global per capita vegetable oil consumption is estimated to increase from 15.05 kg to 15.68 kg, and the per capita consumption in China and Brazil is expected to reach 27 kg. The nominal prices of oilseeds and oilseed products are expected to rise slightly [4] - As of July 15, 2025, the total inventory of vegetable oils in Indian ports increased by 18% in half a month [5] - CGSG Grain and Oil Network plans to conduct a tender for the purchase of 500 tons of rapeseed oil on July 24 [5] Group 4: Summary According to Variety Spreads - The report presents contract spreads and contract basis charts for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific spread data analysis is provided [6][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the soybean and peanut industries are neutral [2][3] 2. Core Views - **Soybean**: The soybean futures showed wide - range fluctuations, and the downstream market's willingness to purchase was weak, resulting in inactive spot trading. The price remained stable. The demand for soy products decreased in summer, and there was no weather - induced production reduction in the soybean - producing areas [1] - **Peanut**: The peanut futures main contract fluctuated within a narrow range. The demand was weak, the supply quality was uneven, and the spot supply - demand was in a stalemate. As the new peanut season approached, the stalling situation continued, with some sellers reducing prices to lock in profits, while buyers were cautious. Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [2] 3. Summary by Related Content **Soybean Market** - **Futures and Spot Market Data**: The closing price of the soybean 2509 contract was 4224.00 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan/ton (0.17%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 76, down 7 (32.14%) from the previous day [1] - **Market Information**: Northeast traders' mentality was stable, and some areas' inventories were running out. The prices of standard - grade first - class soybean with 39% protein in Heilongjiang remained unchanged [1] **Peanut Market** - **Futures and Spot Market Data**: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8130.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 8680.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan/ton (-0.23%) compared to the previous period. The spot basis was PK10 + 70.00, up 12.00 (20.69%) from the previous period [2] - **Market Information**: The peanut spot price in the domestic market was stable with a downward trend. The demand was weak, and the supply - demand was in a stalemate. The rain in Henan was short - lived, and the drought in the south persisted [2]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 2025/7/25 | 指标 | | 7月24日 | 涨跌 | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 15 | 40 | 2500 2000 | -----19/20 ----- 20/21 ----- 21/22 ------ 22/23 -- 23/24 | · 24/25 | | | 天津 | -85 | -30 | 1500 1000 | | | | | 日照 | -165 | 10 | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | -165 | 10 | -900 | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 09/21 | 10/22 11/22 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/25 04/25 05/26 06/26 07/27 08/27 | | | | 东莞 | -145 | 50 | | M9-M1 | | | | | | | | ----- 2019/20 == == ===== 2022/23 | | | | 湛江 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily strategy recommendations for feed, breeding, and oil industries, including market analysis, support and resistance levels, and trading strategies for various commodities such as soybeans, palm oil, and livestock [3][4][5]. - It also presents data on import costs, inventory, and operating rates for these industries, as well as charts for tracking market fundamentals and option volatility [16][18][80]. Summary by Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, while soybean No. 2 09 contract will adjust. Peanut 10 contract is likely to decline. Long positions in soybean oil 01 contract can be held [11]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil 09 contract will fluctuate within a range, and long positions can be taken at low levels. Palm oil 09 contract is expected to rise, and long positions should be held [11]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 09 contract is expected to fall, and long positions should be closed. Rapeseed meal 09 contract will decline, and long positions should be exited [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 09 and starch 09 contracts will fluctuate, and short positions can be reduced at low levels [11]. - **Livestock**: Pig 09 contract will rebound, and long positions can be reduced at high levels. Egg 09 contract will bottom - hunt, and long positions can be taken at low levels [11]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For most cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage, the recommended strategy is to wait and see. However, for some, such as soybean meal 11 - 1, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and for pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1, a positive spread strategy at low levels is suggested [12][13]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis information for various commodities in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock [14]. Part II: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes import cost data for soybeans from different origins and shipping dates, rapeseeds, and palm oil [16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows inventory and operating rate data for beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [18]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: Import cost data for corn from Argentina and Brazil are provided [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Data on corn consumption, inventory, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory are presented [19]. 3. Breeding - It provides daily and weekly data on the pig and egg markets, including prices, costs, profits, and inventory [20][22][24]. Part III: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Breeding End**: Charts for tracking the closing prices of pig and egg futures contracts, as well as spot prices, are provided [25][29]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: Charts for palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts, including production, exports, inventory, and trading volume, are presented [34][47][54]. - **Feed End**: Charts for corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal, including inventory, consumption, and processing profits, are shown [58][64][72]. Part IV: Option Situation for Soybean Meal, Feed, Breeding, and Oils - Charts for historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as option trading volume and open interest for corn, are provided [80]. Part V: Warehouse Receipt Situation for Feed, Breeding, and Oils - Charts for warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs are presented [83].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report predicts that CBOT soybeans may fluctuate slightly upward, while DCE soybean meal may experience a volatile trend, and DCE soybeans are expected to remain in a sideways pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybeans 2509 closed at 4,224 yuan/ton during the day session, down 5 yuan (-0.12%), and 4,221 yuan during the night session, up 15 yuan (+0.36%); DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3,025 yuan/ton during the day session, down 71 yuan (-2.29%), and 3,029 yuan during the night session, down 12 yuan (-0.39%); CBOT soybeans 11 closed at 1,025 cents/bushel, up 2.5 cents (+0.24%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 283.2 dollars/short ton, down 2.4 dollars (-0.84%) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) is 2,920 - 2,970 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan to unchanged from the previous day; in East China, it is 2,840 - 2,900 yuan/ton, down 20 or 30 yuan; in South China, it is 2,900 - 2,940 yuan/ton, down 30 - 40 yuan [2]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 201,500 tons per day, compared with 107,500 tons the day before; the inventory was 908,300 tons per week, compared with 842,900 tons the week before [2]. Macro and Industry News - On July 24, CBOT soybean futures closed mixed. Except for the August contract, which declined, other contracts slightly rose. Technical buying and trade hopes drove the gains, despite pressure from a weak neighboring soybean meal market, a lower - than - expected US soybean export sales report, and favorable weather in US soybean - growing regions [2][4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybeans is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [4].

投资咨询证号： Z0015458 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 7 月 24 日 【粕类日报】供应压力增加 粕类大幅回落 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/7/24 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 3059 | -57 | 天津 | -70 | -100 | 3 0 | | 东莞 | 0 5 | 2753 | -16 | | -180 | -200 | 2 0 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 3025 | -70 | | -170 | -190 | 2 0 | | | | | | 日照 | -170 | -190 | 2 0 | | 菜粕 | 0 1 | 2412 | -32 | 南通 ...