Core Points - The Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index (470064) closed at 2257.45 points, down 0.32%, with a trading volume of 24.053 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.97% [1] - Among the index constituents, 27 stocks rose while 22 stocks fell, with Beixin Building Materials leading the gainers at 2.45% and Yun Aluminum leading the decliners at 3.0% [1] Index Constituents Summary - The top ten constituents of the Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index include: - BOE Technology Group (9.31% weight, latest price 4.00 yuan, market cap 149.656 billion yuan) in the electronics sector - Hikvision (7.97% weight, latest price 31.50 yuan, market cap 288.693 billion yuan) in the computer sector - Wuliangye Yibin (7.71% weight, latest price 116.18 yuan, market cap 450.965 billion yuan) in the food and beverage sector - Luzhou Laojiao (6.59% weight, latest price 132.17 yuan, market cap 194.548 billion yuan) in the food and beverage sector - Xugong Machinery (5.75% weight, latest price 10.79 yuan, market cap 126.815 billion yuan) in the machinery equipment sector - Changan Automobile (3.88% weight, latest price 12.28 yuan, market cap 121.745 billion yuan) in the automotive sector - Shenwan Hongyuan (3.84% weight, latest price 5.45 yuan, market cap 136.468 billion yuan) in the non-banking financial sector - Yun Aluminum (3.81% weight, latest price 22.96 yuan, market cap 79.624 billion yuan) in the non-ferrous metals sector - Yanghe Brewery (3.37% weight, latest price 69.81 yuan, market cap 105.165 billion yuan) in the food and beverage sector - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (3.18% weight, latest price 5.11 yuan, market cap 68.522 billion yuan) in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Capital Flow Summary - The net outflow of main funds from the index constituents totaled 1.125 billion yuan, while speculative funds saw a net inflow of 243 million yuan and retail investors saw a net inflow of 882 million yuan [3] - Detailed capital flow for selected stocks includes: - Tongling Nonferrous Metals: main net inflow of 88.024 million yuan, speculative net outflow of 53.924 million yuan, retail net outflow of 34.100 million yuan - Luzhou Laojiao: main net inflow of 57.790 million yuan, speculative net outflow of 22.566 million yuan, retail net outflow of 35.224 million yuan - Beixin Building Materials: main net inflow of 56.578 million yuan, speculative net outflow of 24.593 million yuan, retail net outflow of 31.985 million yuan [3]

Macro Strategy Overview - The report indicates that the current bull market is experiencing a pause and is undergoing a phase of consolidation, with expectations of continued volatility in the near term [1][6]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to continue its interest rate cuts in December, with a high probability of a 25 basis point reduction, as inflation remains manageable and the job market shows signs of weakness [6][29]. - The economic performance in the first three quarters of 2025 has exceeded expectations, with GDP growth at 5.2%, but there are increasing pressures on domestic demand [6][43]. Overseas Economic Environment - Following the U.S.-China trade negotiations, tariffs on Chinese goods have been reduced by 10%, although ongoing tensions between the two countries are expected to persist [6][30]. - The overall impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation has been limited, with inflation expected to remain stable due to insufficient demand [6][20]. Domestic Economic Environment - Domestic consumption and investment are showing signs of decline, while external demand remains relatively strong, indicating a divergence in economic performance [6][43]. - The report highlights that the policy environment is expected to remain stable, with a focus on infrastructure investment to support economic growth [6][55]. A-Share Market Strategy - The A-share market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with a shift towards a more balanced investment style as external disturbances ease [7][12]. - The report suggests a cautious approach to investment in the A-share market, with a focus on sectors that are expected to benefit from technological innovation in the medium to long term [7][8]. Asset Allocation Insights - The report presents a neutral outlook for major asset classes, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks, indicating a shift from a relatively optimistic stance in previous reports [8]. - The recommendation is to adopt a balanced asset allocation strategy while remaining vigilant for opportunities in technology and other growth sectors [8][7].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the "earnings surprise" strategy is not effective during the third quarter reports, as it has shown a failure risk similar to that of the mid-year reports since 2010 [3][25] - The third quarter reports provide limited incremental information, leading to a market focus on longer-term earnings growth expectations rather than immediate performance [4][51] - The proportion of companies exceeding earnings expectations in the third quarter of 2025 was 19.25%, a significant increase from the historical low of 12.27% in 2024, indicating a recovery in market sentiment towards future earnings [4][5] Group 2 - The report identifies that only a few sectors, such as non-bank financials, coal, banking, non-ferrous metals, and telecommunications, had a higher proportion of upward adjustments compared to downward adjustments in earnings expectations after the third quarter reports [5][26] - The report suggests constructing a stock portfolio based on "turnaround" and "high growth next year" strategies to capture excess returns from individual stocks in November and December [5][55] - The analysis indicates that the market tends to price in significant "turnaround" and high growth expectations for the following year after the third quarter reports, but this pricing tends to decline over time [51][52] Group 3 - The report highlights that different industries respond variably to earnings surprises in the third quarter, with non-bank financials, machinery, steel, agriculture, and construction materials showing significantly higher success rates compared to others [26][27] - The report discusses the phenomenon of "growth illusion" and non-linear pricing characteristics in the market, where companies with earnings surprises may not receive proportional price increases due to overly optimistic expectations [30][32] - The report concludes that while the "turnaround" strategy remains a potential avenue for excess returns, the third quarter's unique characteristics necessitate a more nuanced approach to identifying profitable opportunities [38][55]

投资者可以在交易所互动平台上通过提问方式了解部分公司更及时（每月10日、20日、月末）的股东户 数信息。证券时报·数据宝统计显示，604家公司公布了截至10月31日最新股东户数，相比之前各期，有 73股股东户数连续减少3期以上，股东户数最多已连降10期。也就是说筹码呈持续集中趋势。 股东户数连续下降个股中，连降时间较长的有ST任子行、罗牛山等，其中，ST任子行最新股东户数为 44499户，已连续减少10期，累计降幅为20.57%，罗牛山股东户数连降9期，最新户数为84500户，累计 降幅12.62%，股东户数连降期数较多的还有逸豪新材、泰禾股份、宇信科技等。从最新一期的股东户 数下降幅度看，降幅较大的有恒勃股份、泰和科技、耐普矿机等，最新股东户数分别下降11.72%、 11.31%、10.02%。 市场表现方面，股东户数连降股中，筹码集中以来股价上涨的有38只，下跌的有35只，累计涨幅较高的 有罗牛山、焦作万方、安联锐视等，分别上涨36.87%、21.92%、15.54%。相对沪指来说，其间股价跑 赢大盘的有25只，占比34.25%，超额收益率较高的有罗牛山、焦作万方、安联锐视等，股东户数连降 以来相对沪指收 ...

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) index rose by 0.23%, closing at 1390.39 points, with a total trading volume of 3.856 billion shares and a turnover of 177.074 billion yuan, resulting in an average turnover rate of 2.02% [1] - Among the tradable stocks on the STAR Market, 256 stocks closed higher, with 4 stocks rising over 10%, including Arctech and Jinkuang Electric, while 327 stocks closed lower, with 1 stock declining over 10% [1] Stock Turnover Rates - The distribution of turnover rates shows that 2 stocks had turnover rates exceeding 20%, 11 stocks had rates between 10% and 20%, and 41 stocks had rates between 5% and 10% [1] - The stock with the highest turnover rate was He Yuan Biological, which closed down by 12.55% with a turnover rate of 45.34% and a transaction amount of 2.206 billion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - In terms of sector performance, the electronics sector had the most stocks with a turnover rate exceeding 5%, totaling 18 stocks, followed by the power equipment and pharmaceutical sectors with 17 and 6 stocks, respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest net inflow of funds included Arctech, Trina Solar, and Jinkuang Technology, with net inflows of 406 million yuan, 331 million yuan, and 175 million yuan, respectively [2] Leverage Fund Movements - A total of 36 stocks with high turnover rates recently received net purchases from leveraged funds, with the largest increases in financing balances seen in Guo Dun Quantum, Arctech, and Jinkuang Technology, which increased by 350 million yuan, 293 million yuan, and 185 million yuan, respectively [2] Notable Stocks - The top stocks by turnover rate on November 5 included He Yuan Biological, which fell by 12.55% with a turnover rate of 45.34%, and Arctech, which rose by 20.02% with a turnover rate of 15.46% [3][4] - Other notable stocks included Jinkuang Electric, which increased by 19.99%, and Jinkuang Technology, which rose by 18.12% [2][3]

Core Points - The average stock price of the STAR Market is 40.35 yuan, with 69 stocks priced over 100 yuan, and the highest priced stock is Cambrian-U at 1348.00 yuan [1] - Among the 100-yuan stocks, 256 stocks rose while 327 stocks fell today, with an average decline of 0.11% for the 100-yuan stocks [1] - The average premium of the 100-yuan stocks relative to their issue price is 493.93%, with the highest premiums seen in companies like Shouwen New Materials and Cambrian-U [1] Stock Performance - Cambrian-U closed at 1348.00 yuan, up 0.63%, followed by GuoDun Quantum and Yuanjie Technology at 556.98 yuan and 529.49 yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest net inflow of funds today include Tuojing Technology, Cambrian-U, and Zhongwei Company, while GuoDun Quantum and HeYuan Biology-U saw the highest net outflows [2] - The total margin balance for 100-yuan stocks is 938.37 billion yuan, with Cambrian-U and SMIC having the highest margin balances [2] Industry Distribution - The 100-yuan stocks are concentrated in the electronics, pharmaceutical, and computer industries, with 34, 11, and 9 stocks respectively [1]

十一月行情展望 长江证券研究所金融工程研究小组 2025-11-05 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师 覃川桃 SAC执业证书编号：S0490513030001 SFC执业证书编号：BUT353 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 大市研判 上证指数自2025年8月26日之后进入日线级别中枢震荡阶段 10月底的向上突破4000依然属于中枢震荡的一部分，因其后依然会跌回原中枢中 图：上证指数日线走势（2024年9月至2025年10月末） 资料来源：通达信，长江证券研究所 %% research.95579.com 3 大市研判 创业板指自国庆后如期进入周线级别中枢震荡阶段 目前尚未构成向下的一笔 图：创业板指周线走势（2012年至2025年10月末） 资料来源：交易开拓者，长江证券研究所 %% %% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 大市研判 创业板指自国庆后如期进入周线级别中枢震荡阶段 同期进入日线级别中枢震荡阶段，当前看有小M头趋势 图：创业板指日线走势（ ...

Market Performance - The ChiNext Index rose by 1.03%, closing at 3166.23 points, with a total trading volume of 477.38 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.93 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Among the tradable ChiNext stocks, 815 stocks closed higher, with 15 stocks hitting the daily limit up, while 541 stocks closed lower [1] Turnover Rate - The average turnover rate for the ChiNext today was 3.86%, with 38 stocks having a turnover rate exceeding 20% [1] - The stock with the highest turnover rate was Wanlima (300591) at 53.61%, closing up 3.09% [1] - Other notable stocks with high turnover rates included Zhongneng Electric (300062) at 45.01% and Haochuang Ruitong (301668) at 42.49% [1] Institutional Activity - Six high turnover ChiNext stocks appeared on the Dragon and Tiger List, with significant institutional participation in five of them [3] - Zhongneng Electric saw a net institutional buy of 61.78 million yuan, while New Special Electric had a net buy of 43.75 million yuan [3] - The top net buying stock by institutions was Zhongzhikeji, with a net buy of 62.94 million yuan [3] Fund Flow - Among high turnover stocks, 26 experienced net inflows from main funds, with Penghui Energy (300438) leading with a net inflow of 400 million yuan [3] - Conversely, stocks like Haixia Innovation and Wanlima saw significant net outflows of 307 million yuan and 296 million yuan, respectively [3]

Market Overview - On November 5, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.37%, the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.03%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 0.19% [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, 3,379 stocks increased, accounting for 62.19%, while 1,905 stocks declined [1] Capital Flow - The main capital experienced a net outflow of 8.638 billion yuan, marking five consecutive trading days of net outflows [1] - The ChiNext saw a net outflow of 2.915 billion yuan, the STAR Market had a net outflow of 2.056 billion yuan, and the CSI 300 constituents experienced a net outflow of 2.576 billion yuan [1] Industry Performance - Out of the 28 first-level industries classified by Shenwan, 20 industries saw an increase, with the leading sectors being Electric Equipment and Coal, which rose by 3.40% and 1.39%, respectively [1] - The sectors with the largest declines were Computer and Non-Bank Financials, which fell by 0.97% and 0.49%, respectively [1] Industry Capital Inflow and Outflow - Eleven industries had net capital inflows, with Electric Equipment leading at a net inflow of 14.608 billion yuan and a daily increase of 3.40% [1] - The Coal industry followed with a daily increase of 1.39% and a net inflow of 1.092 billion yuan [1] - Twenty industries experienced net capital outflows, with the Computer industry leading at a net outflow of 6.363 billion yuan and a daily decline of 0.97% [1] - The Electronics sector had a net outflow of 4.616 billion yuan and a daily decrease of 0.19% [1] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 2,127 stocks had net capital inflows, with 777 stocks seeing inflows exceeding 10 million yuan, and 105 stocks with inflows over 100 million yuan [2] - The stock with the highest net inflow was Sungrow Power Supply, which rose by 7.11% with a net inflow of 1.501 billion yuan [2] - Other notable inflows included TBEA and CATL, with net inflows of 1.199 billion yuan and 977 million yuan, respectively [2] - Conversely, 111 stocks had net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with the largest outflows from Seres, Fulongma, and BYD, amounting to 1.231 billion yuan, 1.053 billion yuan, and 722 million yuan, respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The electric equipment industry experienced a significant increase of 3.40% on November 5, with a net inflow of 14.608 billion yuan in main funds, indicating strong investor interest in this sector [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.23% on the same day, with 20 out of 28 sectors showing gains, particularly in electric equipment and coal, which increased by 3.40% and 1.39% respectively [1]. - The computer and non-bank financial sectors faced declines, with decreases of 0.97% and 0.49% respectively [1]. Fund Flow Analysis - The electric equipment sector led the market with a net inflow of 14.608 billion yuan, while the coal sector followed with a net inflow of 1.092 billion yuan [1][2]. - In contrast, the computer sector saw the largest net outflow of 6.363 billion yuan, followed by the electronics sector with a net outflow of 4.616 billion yuan [1]. Electric Equipment Sector Details - Out of 363 stocks in the electric equipment sector, 319 stocks rose, with 20 hitting the daily limit [2]. - Notable stocks with significant net inflows included: - Sunshine Power: 1.501 billion yuan - TBEA: 1.199 billion yuan - CATL: 977 million yuan [2]. - The sector also had 13 stocks with net outflows exceeding 50 million yuan, with the largest outflows from: - Enjie: 242 million yuan - Dongfang Electric: 152 million yuan - Wanma: 139 million yuan [2][3]. Top Gainers in Electric Equipment - The top gainers in the electric equipment sector included: - Sunshine Power: +7.11% - TBEA: +9.99% - CATL: +2.57% [2]. Top Losers in Electric Equipment - The stocks with the largest net outflows included: - Enjie: -0.15% - Dongfang Electric: +3.88% - Wanma: -2.18% [3].