摘要：【图】2025年3月山东省煤油产量数据分析 2025年3月煤油产量统计： 2025年1-3月煤油产量统计： 煤油产量：67.7 万吨 同比增长：7.9% 增速较上一年同期变化：低1.3个百分点 煤油产量：22.9 万吨 同比增长：0.3% 增速较上一年同期变化：低4.9个百分点 据统计，2025年3月山东省规模以上工业企业煤油产量与上年同期相比增长了0.3%，达22.9万吨，增速 较上一年同期低4.9个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全国高1.6个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业 煤油产量489.8万吨的比重为4.7%。 详见下图： 据统计，2025年1－3月，山东省规模以上工业企业煤油产量与上年同期相比增长了7.9%，达67.7万吨， 增速较上一年同期低1.3个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全国高9.2个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上 企业煤油产量1398.9万吨的比重为4.8%。详见下图： 图2：山东省煤油产量分月（累计值）统计图 图1：山东省煤油产量分月（当月值）统计图 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化 ...

Production Insights - Overall production heat has declined, with coke oven capacity utilization down by 0.05 pct and blast furnace operating rate down by 0.46 pct[3] - Rebar production increased by 49,500 tons, while asphalt operating rate fell by 3.6 pct[3][14] - PX and PTA operating rates decreased by 0.81 pct and 0.58 pct respectively[14] Demand Trends - The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, with 30 major cities recording a total of 1.8065 million square meters, down by 36,500 square meters from the previous week[4][22] - The land transaction area increased by 3.3361 million square meters, with the premium rate for residential land dropping by 7.46[4][22] - Domestic shipping indices showed mixed results, with SCFI up by 7.21% and BDI down by 3.46%[4][31] Price Movements - Prices for crude oil, coking coal, rebar, and aluminum have decreased, with Brent crude down by 0.96% to $64.78 per barrel[5][34] - Coking coal futures fell by 5.61% to 815.5 yuan per ton, while LME copper and zinc prices increased by 1.76% and 0.78% respectively[5][34] - Agricultural product prices continued a seasonal decline, with pork prices up by 0.05% and egg prices down by 1.74%[5][37] Logistics and Transportation - Subway passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, with a drop of approximately 128,700 and 112,900 passengers respectively[6][39] - Domestic flight numbers increased by 1.73%, while international flights decreased by 1.27%[6][39][42] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include the possibility of policy effects falling short of expectations and liquidity tightening beyond forecasts[6][45]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report analyzes multiple petrochemical products, suggesting that the polyolefin category is weak while the aromatic hydrocarbon category is strong. Overall, most products have a bearish medium - term outlook, with varying short - term trends. The report provides logical analyses and technical tracking for each product, along with corresponding trading strategies [1]. 3. Summary by Product (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Overseas macro - path is unclear, with potential macro - risks. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase in the medium - term, and there is a risk of US demand falling short of expectations in the short - term. There is a high possibility of a new Iran nuclear deal. - **Technical Tracking**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively. Consider today's price increase as a rebound on reduced positions, with short - term pressure at 475. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [1][2]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Low inventory, but supply is expected to increase due to early resumption of previously shut - down plants. Cost support is weak, and downstream demand has limited growth. - **Technical Tracking**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level. Today's price decline on increased positions. Short - term pressure at 7345. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with the stop - profit reference moved down to 7345 [5]. (3) PX - **Logic**: PX plants are in maintenance, with low operating rates and good short - term fundamentals. However, the cost factor may dominate the market after the decline in crude oil prices. - **Technical Tracking**: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term support refers to the low on May 13. - **Strategy**: Wait for a short - selling opportunity after the support is broken [9]. (4) PTA - **Logic**: Supply - side plant operating rates are increasing, but there are concentrated maintenance plans in the second quarter. Demand - side polyester operating rates are strong. However, the cost factor may dominate the market after the decline in crude oil prices. - **Technical Tracking**: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term support refers to the low on May 13. - **Strategy**: Wait for a short - selling opportunity after the support is broken [13]. (5) PP - **Logic**: Supply - side operating rates are stable, but new production capacity is expected to come on stream in June. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and downstream demand support is insufficient. - **Technical Tracking**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation with significant position increases, indicating strong downward momentum. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with short - term pressure and stop - profit referring to the high on May 21 [17]. (6) Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic operating rates have decreased slightly due to plant maintenance, but overseas operating rates are increasing, and imports are expected to rise in June. Demand is basically flat year - on - year, and the market is under pressure. - **Technical Tracking**: Downward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation, with price increases on reduced positions and decreases on increased positions. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with the stop - profit reference at the high on May 22 [18]. (7) Rubber - **Logic**: Demand is weak, with high inventories of terminal automobiles and tires. There is no expectation of export demand recovery, and the EU has launched an anti - dumping investigation. Domestic inventories are accumulating against the season. - **Technical Tracking**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level and short - term oscillatory structure on the hourly level. Today's price decline on increased positions. The upper pressure of the oscillation range refers to the high on April 8. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy at the upper edge of the oscillation range on the hourly cycle [21]. (8) PVC - **Logic**: Real - estate data in April is still poor, and downstream demand is difficult to improve. Plant maintenance is ending, and supply is expected to increase. - **Technical Tracking**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term pressure at 4980. - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after a reversal pattern on the hourly cycle [24]. (9) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply - side operating rates have decreased slightly, and arrivals are increasing. Demand - side polyester operating rates remain high. - **Technical Tracking**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level and short - term upward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term support at 4315. - **Strategy**: Observe on the hourly cycle and hold short positions on the 15 - minute cycle, with the stop - loss at 4455 [25]. (10) Plastic - **Technical Tracking**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term pressure at 7120. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with the stop - profit moved down to 7120 [27]. (11) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: In June, plants are expected to resume production after maintenance, leading to a potential increase in butadiene supply. Demand is weak due to high inventories of terminal automobiles and tires. - **Technical Tracking**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively. Today's long - negative candlestick. The upper pressure refers to 12120. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The expected increase in production by OPEC+ has led to a decline in crude oil prices, dragging down the center of gravity of the aromatic hydrocarbon system from the valuation side. The recent rebound of styrene was mainly driven by tariff relaxation and the strengthening of spot goods under low inventory. However, this week, the spot market has shown some weakness, with prices starting to fall. Fundamentally, the high inventory of styrene's downstream 3S products may indicate an unsmooth transmission to the end - market. Coupled with ongoing profit challenges and the lack of a significant increase in orders during the export rush, there is a negative feedback expectation for high - priced styrene in the future. Additionally, the supply - demand situation of pure benzene, a raw material, has not improved significantly. With the return of domestic maintenance and increased supply from South Korea, there is significant pressure to reduce inventory, and the price center of pure benzene may decline. Therefore, styrene is expected to be bearish in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the resistance above 7800 - 7900 for the near - term contract. In terms of arbitrage, opportunities for the widening of the EB - BZ spread can be explored [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pure Benzene - **2025 Production Plan**: Multiple companies in different provinces have plans to put new capacity into production for pure benzene, its downstream products (excluding styrene), styrene, and styrene downstream products in 2025. For example, Yulong Petrochemical in Shandong plans to add 100 tons of pure benzene production capacity from 2024Q4 - 2025 using multiple processes [7]. - **May - July 2025 Device Dynamics**: Many companies' pure benzene - related devices have planned maintenance or production stops during May - July 2025. As of now, it is estimated that the planned new capacity for pure benzene from May - July is 1.33 million tons/year, with about 400,000 tons/year of new downstream capacity. The planned shutdown of pure benzene involves 4.46 million tons/year of capacity, and the downstream shutdown capacity is about 5.89 million tons/year. Overall, the net supply of pure benzene will decrease by about 239,000 tons, and the net demand will decrease by about 341,000 tons, resulting in inventory accumulation [9][10]. - **Catalytic Cracking and Related Spreads**: The toluene disproportionation profit is relatively low, and various spreads such as the ethylene - naphtha spread, pure benzene - naphtha spread, etc., show different trends over time [16]. - **Price and Supply - Demand**: The price of pure benzene in East China and its international quotes show different trends. South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China have remained at a high level. Although there are more maintenance activities, high production and imports have led to inventory accumulation. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene's downstream has recently declined slightly, and except for styrene, the profits of other downstream products are still weak [21][27][32]. Styrene and Its Downstream - **Styrene Futures and Spot**: The styrene spot price and its basis, monthly spreads, and registered warehouse receipts show different trends over time [54]. - **Styrene Supply**: Styrene's monthly and weekly production, operating rate, non - integrated and integrated profits, and the styrene - pure benzene spread are presented. China is gradually changing from a net importer of styrene to a net exporter, and it has maintained export performance from April - May [59][71]. - **Styrene Inventory**: The port inventory of styrene is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year, while the factory inventory is accelerating inventory reduction but is still high compared to the same period [72]. - **Styrene Downstream**: The 3S products (PS, EPS, ABS) have high production capacity growth rates, which have intensified industry competition. As of May 22, the capacity utilization rates of EPS, PS, and ABS have changed. The estimated weekly consumption of styrene converted from 3S production has slightly decreased. The prices of 3S products have weakened, and their profits are under pressure. High production has led to relatively high inventory, indicating resistance in demand transmission. In the terminal market, exports are likely to be restricted after the implementation of tariffs, and domestic demand depends on subsidy incentives [77][80][90].

数据显示，5月26日华东地区沥青现货价格报价3580.00元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（3526.00元/吨）升 水54.00元/吨。 （5月26日）全国沥青价格一 览表 | 商品名 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 称 | | 地 | | 型 | | | | 沥青 | 型号:70#;用途分类:重交沥 | 京博石 | 3570元/ | 出厂价 | 山东省/滨州 | 山东京博石油化工有限 | | (70#) | 青; | 化 | 吨 | | 市 | 公司 | | 沥青 | 型号:70#;用途分类:重交沥 | 国产 | 3570元/ | 市场价 | 山东省 | 东营春强化工有限公司 | | (70#) | 青; | | 吨 | | | | | 沥青 | 型号:70#;用途分类:重交沥 | 国产 | 3570元/ | 市场价 | 山东省 | 山东盈邦沥青科技有限 | | (70#) | 青; | | 吨 | | | 公司 | | 沥青 | 型号:70#;用途分类:重交沥 | 东明石 | ...

图表：湖北省液化石油气产量分月（当月值）统计 摘要：【图】2025年3月湖北省液化石油气产量数据 2025年1-3月液化石油气产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前3个月，湖北省规模以上工业企业液化石油气产量累计达到了34.7万 吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，增长了40.4%，增速较2024年同期高4.1个百分点，继续保持快速增长， 增速较同期全国高41.9个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业液化石油气产量1357万吨的比重为2.6%。 图表：湖北省液化石油气产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年3月液化石油气产量分析： 单独看2025年3月份，湖北省规模以上工业企业液化石油气产量达到了11.5万吨，与2024年同期的数据 相比，3月份的产量增长了34.7%，增速较2024年同期高7.9个百分点，继续保持快速增长，增速较同期 全国高37.5个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业液化石油气产量451.5万吨的比重为2.5%。 石油化工行业最新动态 石油发展前景趋势分析 化工的现状和发展趋势 日化行业现状与发展趋势润滑油市场现状及前景分析汽油市场调研与发展前景 柴油发展现状及前景预测橡胶市场调研及发展趋势 塑料行 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 旺季预期 震荡 | VS OPEC+增产，油价盘整。OPEC+持续增产，原油远月压力较大；夏季原油 | | | | 消费旺季即将到来；中美关税超预期下降，宏观面改善，市场风险偏好上升。SC【445-465】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 仓单压制盘面，液化气走势偏弱。近期液化气仓单不断攀升，盘面受到压制，油价偏弱； | | | | 下游利润不佳，但对美关税下降后，进口成本下降，开工率有上升预期。PG【4030-4080】 | | L | 偏弱 | 期现齐跌，社库去化速度放缓，本周装置计划重启增多，供给充沛；抢出口可持续性不 | | | | 强，农膜季节性淡季，反弹偏空。L【7050-7150】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 内需淡季，期现齐跌，5-7 月即将迎来新一轮投产高峰期，基本面供需格局偏弱，向下考 | | | | 验前低支撑位，反弹偏空。PP【6930-7030】 | | PVC | 偏弱 | 成本坍塌，开工高位窄幅下滑。5-6 月有多套新装置计划投产，出口尚存不确定性，基本 | | | | 面预期 ...

Group 1 - The CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index decreased by 0.52% as of May 26, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Minsheng Bank led the gains with an increase of 0.72%, followed by Ninghu Expressway at 0.63% and China Unicom at 0.56%, while Shanghai Bank, Conch Cement, and Huayu Automotive experienced declines [1] - The CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF (515300) underwent a rebalancing adjustment [1] Group 2 - The CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF recorded a trading volume of 54.8688 million yuan during the session, with an average daily trading volume of 110 million yuan over the past week [3] - The latest scale of the CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF reached 5.643 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 30.3007 million yuan recently [3] - Over the past five trading days, there were three days of net inflows totaling 36.9613 million yuan [3] Group 3 - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index accounted for 37.43% of the index, including China Shenhua, Gree Electric, and Daqin Railway [3] - Dongfang Wealth Strategy suggests that the relative return probability of dividends remains high, with a potential marginal increase in stable dividend style profitability from Q2 to Q3 [3] - The micro liquidity environment is expected to limit the valuation elasticity of high sensitivity styles, supporting the relative return probability of stable dividend styles in the near future [3] Group 4 - According to estimates from Founder Securities, long-term holding of dividend assets shows a higher success rate compared to broad indices like the CSI 300, aligning with the long-term performance assessment direction of the "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Public Funds" [4] - Institutions indicate that dividend assets are a valuable investment direction for long-term investors, especially in the context of ongoing policy encouragement for long-term capital market entry [4] - Investors without stock accounts can access investment opportunities through the corresponding CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF linked fund (007606) [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated. The 380 near - end ran strongly, the monthly spread strengthened again, and the basis fluctuated. The low - sulfur crack spread fluctuated, the near - end of the monthly spread declined, and the basis fluctuated. Singapore's on - land inventory increased significantly, ARA ports had a slight inventory build - up, and the US residual oil inventory decreased. Recently, the low - sulfur valuation was realized, and there is room for repair in the crack spread and monthly spread after the supply recovers. The high - sulfur crack spread ran strongly, with profits higher than the historical average. Affected by consumption tax deductions and tariff adjustments in China this year, the refinery feedstock demand for fuel oil has dropped significantly. In the bunker fuel sector, the global high - sulfur bunker fuel from January to March increased by 2% year - on - year, Singapore remained basically flat, and the total bunker fuel was weaker year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on global trade activities. Recently, Saudi Arabia's net imports have rebounded, and Egypt's purchases continue. The near - end of high - sulfur is strong, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of a medium - to - long - term decline in the high - sulfur crack spread [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/05/19 | 2025/05/20 | 2025/05/21 | 2025/05/22 | 2025/05/23 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 407.04 | 407.23 | 409.58 | 403.67 | 405.64 | 1.97 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 446.85 | 446.09 | 447.99 | 444.44 | 449.27 | 4.83 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 0.62 | - 0.27 | - 0.02 | - 0.04 | - 0.44 | - 0.40 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 593.82 | 588.04 | 589.31 | 583.79 | 588.32 | 4.53 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 146.97 | - 141.95 | - 141.32 | - 139.35 | - 139.05 | 0.30 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 16.37 | 15.90 | 16.50 | 16.30 | 16.50 | 0.20 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 39.81 | 38.86 | 38.41 | 40.77 | 43.63 | 2.86 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/05/19 | 2025/05/20 | 2025/05/21 | 2025/05/22 | 2025/05/23 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 428.78 | 431.93 | 441.46 | 428.49 | 426.54 | - 1.95 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 436.10 | 438.43 | 447.56 | 434.99 | 432.91 | - 2.08 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 487.21 | 485.73 | 489.98 | 482.50 | 479.50 | - 3.00 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 79.83 | 79.88 | 80.60 | 78.60 | 78.23 | - 0.37 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | 3.27 | 3.21 | 3.91 | 3.69 | 3.74 | 0.05 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 103.53 | - 105.38 | - 106.46 | - 99.14 | - 99.40 | - 0.26 | [1][9] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/05/19 | 2025/05/20 | 2025/05/21 | 2025/05/22 | 2025/05/23 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 431.06 | 434.71 | 443.64 | 429.70 | 428.80 | - 0.90 | | FOB VLSFO | 499.38 | 498.93 | 502.27 | 493.36 | 490.04 | - 3.32 | | 380 Basis | - 0.45 | - 0.25 | 0.30 | - 0.18 | 1.50 | 1.68 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 9.7 | 9.6 | 11.1 | 10.2 | 9.4 | - 0.8 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 14.5 | 12.2 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 14.3 | 0.8 | [2] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/05/19 | 2025/05/20 | 2025/05/21 | 2025/05/22 | 2025/05/23 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2705 | 2722 | 2748 | 2695 | 2692 | - 3 | | FU 05 | 2649 | 2662 | 2669 | 2634 | 2638 | 4 | | FU 09 | 2847 | 2874 | 2910 | 2841 | 2833 | - 8 | | FU 01 - 05 | 56 | 60 | 79 | 61 | 54 | - 7 | | FU 05 - 09 | - 198 | - 212 | - 241 | - 207 | - 195 | 12 | | FU 09 - 01 | 142 | 152 | 162 | 146 | 141 | - 5 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/05/19 | 2025/05/20 | 2025/05/21 | 2025/05/22 | 2025/05/23 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3378 | 3390 | 3393 | 3350 | 3358 | 8 | | LU 05 | 3313 | 3314 | 3307 | 3330 | 3291 | - 39 | | LU 09 | 3437 | 3445 | 3456 | 3412 | 3405 | - 7 | | LU 01 - 05 | 65 | 76 | 86 | 20 | 67 | 47 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 124 | - 131 | - 149 | - 82 | - 114 | - 32 | | LU 09 - 01 | 59 | 55 | 63 | 62 | 47 | - 15 | [3]

Group 1: General Information - Report Name: PTA Daily Report [1] - Date: May 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Quotes: TA2509 closed at 4,716 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (0.38% decrease), with a trading volume of 1,267,572 lots and a decrease of 8,764 lots; TA2601 closed at 4,568 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 103,832 lots and an increase of 543 lots [6] - Market Outlook: Despite the influence of PTA de - stocking after the official maintenance plan of East China plants, the expectation of production cuts by downstream polyester factories remains, and the crude oil market was weak during the session. It is expected that the PTA market will decline slightly [6] Group 3: Industry News - Crude Oil: Geopolitical tensions were downplayed, and traders returned to market fundamentals. OPEC and its allies were discussing an output increase in July, causing concerns about oversupply. WTI July 2025 futures settled at $61.2/barrel, down $0.37 (0.60% decrease); Brent July 2025 futures settled at $64.44/barrel, down $0.47 (0.72% decrease) [7] - PX: PX price in the Chinese market was estimated at $825 - 827/ton, up $3/ton; in the South Korean market, it was estimated at $805 - 807/ton, up $3/ton. There was one transaction of any July cargo at $828/ton. The cost support of PX was limited due to the range - bound international oil prices, but domestic PX operating load was low and there were still maintenance plans, and the demand outlook was good [7] - PTA: The price of PTA in the East China market was 4,875 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was a premium of 148 yuan/ton over futures 2509, up 20 yuan/ton [7] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures: Include PTA futures price summary, futures - spot price difference, PTA processing margin, PTA downstream product inventory, PTA warehouse receipt quantity, polyester factory load rate, PTA downstream product price, etc. [17][18][23][24]