Market Overview - The overall trend of AH stocks in the past six months can be summarized as "gathering market sentiment amid divergence, with gradual valuation recovery amid fluctuations" [1] - Since the pandemic, the stock market has been in a long-term adjustment due to risk control and the downturn in the real estate cycle [1] - After September 24, there has been a noticeable change in market style, with effective policies boosting confidence and altering the characteristics of a shrinking market [1] Investment Opportunities - The Chinese stock market has a high allocation value globally, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 dividend yield remaining above 1.5%, indicating strong appeal for large incremental funds like insurance [1][2] - The continuous decline in bank deposit interest rates is expected to drive savings into the stock market as fixed deposits mature [1] - The return of overseas funds to the Chinese market is evident, with Hong Kong stocks showing significant recovery since the beginning of the year [2] Economic Context - The controllable economic downturn risk suggests that the current dividend yield is unlikely to experience a significant decline [2] - The major reasons for the significant pullback in A-shares since 2021 include economic downturn and deflation expectations, which are less pronounced compared to developed markets [2] - The stabilization of economic expectations is seen as a major positive factor for the stock market [4] Sector Analysis - Assets with strong earnings certainty and high dividend nature are expected to yield absolute returns, attracting low-risk preference funds [3] - Industries that are likely to see opportunities before the economic bottom is confirmed include innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, AI-related sectors, non-bank financials, and more [3] - Many downstream industries are gradually emerging from profit troughs due to price adjustments and technological breakthroughs, despite the year-on-year PPI hitting a new low [3] Conclusion - The risk-reward ratio in the stock market has become particularly evident after years of macro risks, with the current bottom position of the market not requiring a significant economic rebound for valuation recovery [4] - Patience and bottom-up research are essential for achieving favorable results in the current market environment [4]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance in the first half of 2025, with the Hang Seng Index starting at approximately 19,932 points and reaching a peak of 24,874 points by March 19, marking a maximum increase of over 24% [1] - Despite a temporary drop to 19,260 points due to Trump's tariff policies in early April, the market quickly recovered, reaching 24,366 points by June 11, resulting in a phase increase of 22% [1] - As of June 13, the Hang Seng Index recorded a cumulative increase of 19.11% year-to-date, ranking second among major global markets, just behind the Korean Composite Index [2] Top Performing Stocks - In the first half of 2025, over 146 stocks in the Hong Kong main board saw year-to-date increases exceeding 100%, with the top two stocks, HSSP INTL (03626, HK) and Guangdong-Hong Kong Holdings (01396, HK), achieving increases of over 20 times [3] - HSSP INTL led the gains with a staggering increase of 2,731.56%, followed by Guangdong-Hong Kong Holdings at 2,585.31% [4] Sector Highlights - The consumer sector, particularly in clothing labels and packaging, has been a significant contributor to the market's bullish atmosphere, with HSSP INTL being a notable player [5] - Gold stocks also performed well, with companies like Zhu Feng Gold and Tongguan Gold seeing increases of over 10 times [5] - In the pharmaceutical sector, notable stocks included Deqi Pharmaceutical-B with a 501% increase and Heber Pharmaceutical-B with a 365% increase, both ranking among the top 20 gainers [5] Hong Kong Stock Connect - Many of the top-performing stocks are not included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, limiting access for mainland investors [6] - Among the stocks eligible for the Stock Connect, significant gainers included Health Road (02587, HK) with a 320% increase and other pharmaceutical stocks like Sanofi and Rongchang Bio [8] Emerging Trends - The pharmaceutical and new consumption sectors emerged as key themes for the Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks, with Health Road leading the pharmaceutical gains [8] - In the new consumption space, stocks like Lao Pu Gold and Bubble Mart also showed impressive performance, with increases of 296% and 205% respectively [8] - The pig farming sector, represented by De Kang Agriculture, saw a notable increase of 233%, while AI-related stocks like Meitu also performed well with a 170% increase [9]

Group 1 - The TMT industry has shown signs of recovery since late May, with a potential for a comprehensive rebound in the sector and its sub-sectors [1] - The performance of the dividend theme has weakened in June, with the probability of the CSI Dividend Index outperforming the CSI 300 dropping to 31%, significantly lower than in May [1] - Key dividend sectors such as banking, transportation, utilities, and coal have low probabilities of outperforming, with the transportation sector below 20% in June [1] Group 2 - Historical analysis indicates that the CSI Dividend Index has outperformed the CSI 300 in June due to favorable industry fundamentals and market downturns in previous years [2] - Current market conditions lack new industry logic or significant market fluctuations, suggesting that dividend assets may face headwinds in June [2] - New consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals are currently experiencing high market enthusiasm, but there is a risk of overcrowding, leading to a potential need for portfolio adjustments [2] Group 3 - The market sentiment for the TMT sector is currently at a low level, positioned at the 15th percentile over the past year, indicating potential for a catalytic phase [3] - Events such as the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference and Huawei Conference may serve as catalysts for the TMT sector, with the R2 model being a potential trigger point [3] - The performance of sub-sectors related to AI computing in Q2 is expected to support future trends, enhancing the attractiveness of the TMT industry amidst challenges in the dividend and new consumption sectors [3]

当前市场走势较为复杂，主要体现在几个方面。首先，本周前四天市场整体向 上，即使遇到贸易战谈判不利消息，对市场冲击也有限。然而周五，以色列和 伊朗在中东剧烈冲突，导致市场下调，增加了走势的不确定性。其次，大盘是 否会跌或向上突破尚不明确，目前处于上下两难的局面。尽管券商股带动大盘 有可能超过 3,417，但能否突破 3,432 仍存疑。此外，北证 50 的震荡偏空走 势对市场有负面影响，加剧了整体格局的不确定性。 廖市无双：中东地缘冲突会给市场带来什么？20250615 摘要 大盘目前处于震荡偏多格局，支撑位在 3,310 点附近，压力位在 3,432 点附近。券商板块走势对大盘有显著影响，若券商调整至年线附近，大 盘也将相应调整。 北证 50 指数呈震荡偏空态势，对市场产生负面影响，需特别关注其走 势，可能进一步拖累大盘。5 月 22 日跌破趋势线，反弹力度较弱，市场 担忧第三段下跌。 中东地缘政治冲突加剧，全球资本市场风险偏好下降，引发震荡整理， 并推动石油石化、有色金属和国防军工板块走强，但美股面临调整压力， 对市场带来内生性调整压力。 新消费与医药板块近期露出疲态，创新药指数出现顶背离，港股创新药 指数 ...

证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] | ] [Table_A 樊继拓 uthor策略首席 分析师 | | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521060001 | | | 箱： fanjituo@cindasc.com | 邮 | [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 15 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [新消费和 Table_Title] AI 扩散顺序的相似性 新消费和 AI 扩散顺序的相似性 ——策略周观点 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [Table_Summary] 李畅 策略分析师 执业编号：S1500523070001 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com ➢ （1）新消费和之前的 AI 产业逻辑不同，但细分行业的扩散方式有 些类似。新消费和 AI 产业逻辑有很大的不同，但如果仔细观察内部 细分行业的轮动顺序，能够看到有很大的相似性。 ➢ （2）AI 和新消费交易热度持续扩散。产业的发展往往需要很长时 ...

茅台跌破2000元了！最近白酒板块惨不忍睹，飞天茅台零售价失守关键价位，许多人惊呼信仰崩塌，但反观新消费领域却蒸蒸日上。 表面看是行业正策或需求变化，实则背后藏着更深层的秘密——如果你不懂这一点，下次行情来临时，可能又会被甩在车尾。 今天，我们就来层层剥开这层迷雾，还原真相。文章最后，我会分享关键数据工具如何帮你拨云见日。 一，茅台跌破2000元：心理防线的崩溃 飞天茅台零售价跌破2000元，这不是简单的数字游戏，而是投资者心理防线的瓦解。2000元作为长期的心理锚定点，一旦失守，容易引发恐 慌抛售。 人们总是依赖历史价格作为参考点，当现实偏离时，情绪会放大波动。 茅台官方未出手控货，这耐人寻味的迹象暗示行业深层调整。白酒板块面临去库存、需求萎缩和外部正策压力，持有者难免焦虑。 三、看清机构资金动向：数据还原市场真相 二、消费赛道巨变：白酒与新消费的冰火两重天 白酒板块的惨淡与新消费的繁荣形成鲜明对比，这不是偶然，而是市场资金流向的必然结果。 机构资金是市场的主导力量，但它们的交易行为并非不可捉摸。数据就像一面镜子，能客观反映资金流向，不受情绪干扰。 许多人一看到消费行情启动，就本能地扑向白酒，认为它稳当可靠 ...

6月13日，和讯投顾黄儒琛分析，只要出现地缘战争的情况，就会促使资金向避险方向转移。除了整体 的军工是午后启动的，其他的港口、航运、石油以及黄金均是今天开盘就有所表现的。现在大家关注的 重点应该是持续性的问题，情绪上又遇到冰点环境了，还是那句话，别担心银行会出手，但是今天银行 没出手，弹性金融方向有所表现，但是实际上今天的市场是猴市，因为各种低开高走冲高回落，其实稳 住的话感觉还可以，弹性金融的韧性还是在的，今天这个样子炸板率都能维持在22.5个点，实际跌停也 仅有5家，不过最大回撤有点多，又上升了有11家，大家别那么悲观，4000多家绿盘是可以考虑低吸弹 性金融方向的，因为盘面冰点的时候要考虑抗跌的去博弈修复，而不是去追高逆势上涨的题材，这里意 义战争影响的石油、天然气、核电站修复、军工、黄金、航运等全部都是首板，没有任何一家是领先题 材升位的，粗略计算了一下，今天有56家实际涨停，但是40家首板都是这几个方向的，所以题材的持续 性今天属于首日爆发。 其他题材的话主要就是新消费，这里IP经济跌幅居前，毕竟周三周四连续强势了两天，但是随着潮玩的 宇宙总龙头泡泡玛特的企稳，尾盘也有资金回流，那需要考虑的是如果周 ...

出品｜搜狐财经 作者｜汪梦婷 搜狐财经《基金佳问》栏目（点击进入专题） 近期，潮玩Labubu风靡全球，带动相关企业市值飞升。 搜狐财经《基金佳问》栏目，对话各行业具有影响力的基金经理，结合目前经济形势，解读不同行业细分领域的投资策略，展望各行业板块中长期的投资机 遇，为投资者讲解如何"避雷"挑选有潜力的基金产品。 做客本期《基金佳问》的嘉宾，是景顺长城基金研究部基金经理张欢，本期栏目主要讨论潮流玩偶、宠物经济等新消费领域的投资机会。 张欢，经济学硕士，具有10年证券、基金行业从业经验。曾任申万宏源证券研究所行业研究员，新华基金研究部行业研究员。2020年9月加入景顺长城基 金，历任研究部研究员、基金经理助理，2023年7月起担任研究部基金经理。 时下以谷子经济、宠物经济、美容美妆等为代表的新消费经济火热，在二级市场也表现强势，港股新消费"三姐妹"股价连创新高，一批重仓新消费龙头股的 基金业绩也水涨船高。 新消费崛起的逻辑是什么？相比传统消费，新消费股票在投资方法和选股策略上有何不同？作为普通投资者，该如何把握新消费浪潮带来的机会？ 张欢认为，新消费赛道的快速崛起，一方面是消费者的年轻化，另一方面是新的经济环 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is expected to enter a phase where macro factors become less disruptive, with domestic policies emphasizing a "stable and active capital market" [1] - The macroeconomic environment is likely to remain stable, with reduced uncertainties from overseas factors, particularly regarding U.S. tariff policies [1][2] - The market is anticipated to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with dividend stocks being a preferred choice for low-risk investors [1][3] Group 2: Sector Insights - The AI healthcare sector shows resilience, with ongoing positive developments despite a weak correlation with the broader healthcare market [2] - The innovative drug sector has seen unexpected strength, but there is an anticipated increase in market scrutiny regarding the fundamentals of these companies [3] - The military industry, particularly upstream targets, may experience a valuation shift due to improved recognition of domestic and foreign demand for advanced weaponry [4][5] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Focus on identifying structural opportunities within cyclical sectors, such as rare metals and agriculture, which may show fundamental changes [6] - High-dividend assets remain attractive in a liquidity-rich environment, with expectations of declining insurance policy rates and increasing dividend payout ratios [7] - The market may stabilize in June, with potential risks from external factors, but the focus will remain on sectors with independent growth logic [8][9]

市场早盘震荡调整， 深成指、 创业板指均跌1%。沪深两市半日成交额9122亿，较上个交易日放量1370 亿。盘面上，热点集中于油气、黄金等防御性板块，个股跌多涨少，全市场超4400只个股下跌。从板块 来看，油气股集体大涨， 通源石油等十余股涨停； 核污染防治板块爆发， 捷强装备等多股涨停；黄金 概念再度活跃， 西部黄金涨停； 稀土永磁概念延续强势， 北矿科技涨停。下跌方面，新消费概念大幅 调整， IP经济、 美容护理方向领跌， 奥雅股份跌超10%。板块方面，核污染防治、 石油、 航运、黄金 等板块涨幅居前，美容护理、无人车辆、IP经济、 影视等板块跌幅居前。截至收盘， 沪指跌0.72%，深 成指跌1.15%，创业板指跌1.14%。 ...