21世纪经济报道记者 周潇枭 北京报道 近日，野村中国首席经济学家陆挺在京举行媒体见面会，主题为"2026年中国宏观经济分析与展望"。 陆挺表示， 2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，预计中国会加大宏观政策力度，推动经济平稳运行。2026年中国有望推出更大规模的政府支出计划，预计赤 字率维持在4%左右的水平，超长期特别国债、地方专项债等规模适度增加；央行有望在二季度温和降准降息，预计下调政策利率10个基点、降准50个基 点。 陆挺进一步表示，为了推动经济运行在合理区间，2026年中国有必要推出更大力度的举措，包括清理房地产行业的债务问题、推进养老金制度改革为消费提 供更可持续的支撑、完善财政体系来更好地保护经营者等。 内需依然承压 2025年中国经济首次突破140万亿元，同比增长5%，顺利实现年初5%左右的增长目标。分季度来看，一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%，二季度增长 5.2%，三季度增长4.8%，四季度增长4.5%，整体呈现"前高后低"的走势。 2025年中国经济还延续了"供强需弱"的特征，内需表现偏弱。其中，2025年社会消费品零售总额50.12万亿元，比上年增长3.7%；全国固定资产投资（不含 农 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the optimistic outlook for China's economy in 2026, driven by structural upgrades in exports and recovery in domestic consumption, which are expected to provide significant certainty for global economic growth [1][3]. - International financial institutions are increasingly confident in China's economic resilience, with reports indicating a fundamental shift in export drivers from cost advantages to technology and supply chain efficiency [1][3]. - The competitiveness of Chinese exports is being enhanced through product upgrades and innovation, particularly in high-value and high-tech sectors such as automobiles, batteries, solar energy, and grid equipment [1][3]. Group 2 - The recovery and upgrade of domestic consumption are seen as key drivers of economic growth, with evidence of structural transformation in demand patterns [3]. - The stability of China's industrial and supply chains is a significant advantage for multinational companies, making China an attractive market for foreign investments [3]. - Foreign institutions are actively reallocating assets towards Chinese markets, with a shift in focus from short-term valuation benefits to long-term growth potential driven by industrial transformation [3][4]. Group 3 - Long-term capital is increasingly securing cornerstone investments in high-quality Chinese assets, indicating a shift from short-term holdings to long-term allocations [4][5]. - The average subscription rate for cornerstone investors in Hong Kong IPOs has reached 39.15%, the highest in two years, reflecting growing international capital interest in China's industrial upgrades [4]. - The focus of international long-term capital is shifting from price-driven strategies to value-driven approaches, emphasizing the importance of companies' positions in the supply chain, technological barriers, and future profitability [5].

Economic Outlook - China's economy is showing resilience and vitality, with expectations for increased certainty in global development in 2026, particularly in exports and consumption [1] - Multiple international financial institutions have expressed optimism about the structural upgrade of China's exports, shifting from cost-driven advantages to technology and supply chain efficiency [3] Export and Consumption Trends - Chinese enterprises are actively innovating through product upgrades and optimizing service exports, particularly in sectors like automotive, batteries, solar energy, and grid equipment [5] - The recovery and upgrade of domestic consumption are becoming significant supports for China's economic growth, with positive assessments from various institutions regarding the consumption market [7] - The competitiveness of China's exports remains strong, with ongoing optimization and upgrading of export product structures, particularly in high-value and high-tech industries [8] Foreign Investment Sentiment - Foreign institutions are increasingly viewing China as a preferred market for investment due to its stable industrial and supply chains, which are seen as irreplaceable [12] - International investors are shifting their focus from merely chasing valuation gains to recognizing the long-term growth potential brought by industrial transformation and upgrades in China [15] - The average subscription ratio for cornerstone investors in Hong Kong's IPOs has risen to 39.15%, indicating a strategic lock-in of core assets related to China's industrial upgrades [21] Long-term Investment Strategies - Long-term capital is increasingly seeking cornerstone positions in Chinese assets, reflecting a preference for medium to long-term certainty over short-term volatility [23] - The focus of international long-term capital is shifting towards the position of companies within the supply chain, technological barriers, and future profitability, indicating a change in perception from price-driven to value-driven investment [23] - The participation of international long-term capital in IPOs and refinancing projects is primarily from new economy sectors, providing opportunities for global investors to engage with China's innovation and growth [23]

一、会议基本情况 广发集享债券型证券投资基金（基金主代码：021136，基金简称：广发集享债券，以下简称"本基金"） 于2024年3月8日经中国证监会证监许可〔2024〕384号文准予募集注册，并于2024年6月14日正式成立运 作。本基金的基金管理人为广发基金管理有限公司（以下简称"基金管理人"），基金托管人为中国银行 股份有限公司（以下简称"基金托管人"）。为了适应市场环境变化，更好地维护基金份额持有人的利 益，根据《中华人民共和国证券投资基金法》《公开募集证券投资基金运作管理办法》等法律法规的规 定和《广发集享债券型证券投资基金基金合同》（以下简称《基金合同》）的有关约定，基金管理人经 与基金托管人协商一致，决定以通讯方式召开本基金的基金份额持有人大会，审议修改本基金基金合同 终止条款，并根据最新法律法规对《基金合同》进行相应修改，会议的具体安排如下： 1.会议召开方式：通讯方式。 2.会议投票表决起止时间：自2026年1月27日起，至2026年3月3日15：00（投票表决时间以本次大会指 定的收件人收到表决票时间为准）。 3.基金份额持有人或其代理人需将填妥的表决票和所需的相关文件在投票期间内，通过专 ...

Company News - China Merchants Bank (03968.HK) reported a revenue of 337.53 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0.01%; net profit reached 150.18 billion yuan, an increase of 1.21% year-on-year [6] - Everbright Securities (06178.HK) achieved a revenue of 10.863 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.18%; net profit was 3.729 billion yuan, up 21.92% year-on-year [7] - Shanghai Fudan (01385.HK) expects a revenue of approximately 3.93 billion to 4.03 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.46% to 12.25%; net profit is projected to be between 190 million to 283 million yuan, a decrease of about 66.82% to 50.58% year-on-year [7] - China Power International Development (01071.HK) reported a total power generation of 26.2 billion megawatt-hours for 2025, a year-on-year decline of approximately 6.99% [7] - China Life Insurance (02628.HK) plans to invest 4 billion yuan to establish a partnership focused on "technology innovation and industrial upgrading" in the Yangtze River Delta region; it also intends to contribute 8.492 billion yuan to establish a partnership with its subsidiary, focusing on investments in the elderly care industry [7] - Road King Infrastructure (01098.HK) intends to sell several property rights in the Road King New World commercial project in Ningbo for 100.3 million yuan [7] - China Metallurgical Group (01618.HK) forecasts a net profit of 1.3 billion to 1.6 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 76.28% to 80.73% year-on-year [8] Industry Trends - The toy, commercial aerospace, photovoltaic, and intelligent driving sectors are showing strong performance, while insurance and banking sectors continue to exhibit weakness [5]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen experienced a significant surge last Friday, prompting Prime Minister Kishi Sanae to commit to combating market speculation, indicating a potential for official intervention to support the yen [2][8] - As of Greenwich Mean Time 20:45, the USD/JPY exchange rate fell approximately 0.8% to 154.56, marking the lowest level since December 17, while the dollar index decreased by 0.4% to 97.085 [3][8] - The yen's exchange rate against the dollar had previously surged to 155.73, representing the largest single-day increase in nearly six months, which has caused short-sellers to reconsider their positions [9][11] Group 2 - The yen has been in a prolonged period of depreciation, currently near multi-decade lows against the dollar, which has raised concerns among Japanese officials about its negative impact on the economy [4][11] - Analysts suggest that the USD/JPY exchange rate may have peaked, with projections indicating a potential recovery to the 140.00-145.00 range based on interest rate differentials [4][10] - The Japanese government is increasingly concerned about the yen's weakness, which has led to rising import costs and overall inflation, thereby diminishing household purchasing power [5][11] Group 3 - There are speculations about a possible joint intervention by the US and Japan to stabilize the yen, which would be the first coordinated action since the 2011 earthquake, aimed at curbing excessive yen depreciation [9][12] - The Japanese Finance Minister has expressed concerns regarding the recent unilateral depreciation of the yen, indicating discussions with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen about the issue [11][12] - Market analysts believe that if intervention measures are implemented, their effectiveness could be significantly enhanced, especially if coordinated with other Asian partners [12]

海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为3.63%。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，1月23日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1250亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量1250亿元， 中标量1250亿元。Wind数据显示，当日867亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放383亿元。当周实现净投放2295亿元。 Wind数据显示，1月26日至30日当周，央行公开市场将有11810亿元逆回购到期。此外，1月26日还将有2000亿元MLF到 期。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 缴税影响尚未完全消除，银行间市场资金面仍显紧平衡，DR001加权平均利率降约2bp至1.39%附近。匿名点击（X-repo） 系统上，隔夜报价在1.42%附近，供给仍不稳；非银机构质押存单及信用债借入隔夜报价则在1.52%-1.55%一线。 6. 国债期货收盘 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.59%附近，较上日下行超1bp。 （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market remains buoyant with ample liquidity, supported by a recent 900 billion yuan MLF operation by the central bank, signaling a commitment to maintain liquidity levels [11][15][16] - The 10-year government bond yield is stabilizing in the range of 1.8%-1.9%, suggesting a decrease in the attractiveness of chasing higher yields as rates approach the lower end of this range [15][16] - The stock market is expected to maintain a steady and healthy slow bull pattern, with structural opportunities remaining abundant despite potential pressure from mid-to-long-term fund position adjustments [3][11][16] Group 2 - The report highlights that the A-share market is experiencing a shift towards high-dividend, low-volatility sectors, such as banks and state-owned enterprises, as investors adjust their strategies ahead of the Spring Festival [3][16] - The report notes that the overall market sentiment remains high, with significant capital inflows into mid-cap stocks, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which have outperformed during the week [11][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and corporate earnings as key drivers for market performance in the upcoming weeks [11][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent strength of the bond market is mainly driven by three factors: stable buying by allocation funds and full clearing of trading funds, alleviation of the pressure from the price - comparison relationship, and the central bank's liquidity support. The current market recovery is more of a phased rebound, and the trend pressure on the fundamentals has not been falsified. After the second quarter, the possibility of the resonance of rising investment returns, the recovery of corporate leverage, and capital inflows needs to be monitored [2][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Factors Driving the Bond Market Strength - **Stable Buying by Allocation Funds**: Since the beginning of the year, small and medium - sized banks, insurance companies, and wealth management products have maintained a seasonal or even higher - than - usual allocation intensity. For example, due to the "good start" effect, insurance companies have net - bought over 220 billion yuan of bonds since the beginning of the year, higher than the levels in the same period of 2024 and 2025. Large banks have actively increased their allocation of 7 - 10 - year bonds, indicating the release of the allocation capacity for long - duration assets after the EVE indicator adjustment at the beginning of the year [2][7][8]. - **Full Clearing of Trading Funds**: From multiple perspectives, it can be seen that the selling pressure of trading funds was concentrated in the first two weeks of the year. For example, the selling scale of funds in the first five trading days was close to the weekly extreme of the past year. The overall duration of medium - and long - term bond funds has fallen to around 2.7 years (the 25th percentile in the past three years), and the market divergence index has risen to around the 69th percentile in the past three years, presenting a pattern of "low duration + high divergence" that is conducive to a rebound. The micro - trading sentiment index of the bond market has also shown a certain release of pessimistic sentiment [17]. - **Alleviation of Price - Comparison Pressure**: In the past two weeks, the pressure from the seesaw relationship between equities, commodities, and bonds has eased. On one hand, the regulatory authorities have actively cooled the equity market. On the other hand, from a price - comparison perspective, the valuation of interest rates relative to commodities is at a reasonable level. After the adjustment at the beginning of the year, the 10 - year interest rate has rebounded to the 15th percentile since 2021, and the prices of commodities such as building materials, rebar, coke, and the copper - gold ratio have also rebounded to certain percentiles, with the average percentile of interest rates and commodities basically matching [19]. - **Adequate Liquidity Injection**: Although the structural monetary tools took the lead at the beginning of the year and there were many seasonal disturbance factors, the central bank's overall liquidity injection scale remained at an adequate level. Since January, the central bank has net - injected 1 trillion yuan through MLF and outright repurchase, with a large - scale net injection of 70 billion yuan through MLF and an earlier injection time, which has alleviated the market's concerns about the recurrence of last year's situation in the capital market under the "good start" of credit and supply pressure [22]. 3.2 Sustainability of the Bond Market Rebound - **Historical Experience**: Referring to the performance of rebound markets during periods of cautious sentiment in history, the average duration is about 15 trading days, with an amplitude of about 18BP. The rebound in October last year lasted for 24 trading days, with an amplitude of 11BP. In contrast, the current rebound has lasted for about 12 trading days, with an amplitude of about 7BP, indicating that there is still room for the rebound in terms of both duration and amplitude [3][26]. - **Sentiment Indicators**: The market sentiment has currently recovered to around the median level (about the 54th percentile), and the duration and divergence indicators are still in the "low duration + high divergence" pattern, which is usually conducive to the continuation of the rebound. Moreover, the market's expectation of loose monetary policy is still relatively cautious, and there is still room for moderate recovery if the central bank continues to show a positive attitude [3][26]. 3.3 Comparison with the 2022 - 2023 Market and the Nature of the Current Market - **Differences from 2022 - 2023**: There are several important differences between the current environment and that of 2022 - 2023. In terms of the credit cycle, the transmission chain of PPI→ROIC→credit cycle is being formed, and the transmission smoothness is expected to improve. In the inventory cycle, the current industrial enterprises are at the end of the destocking cycle, and the rebound of the leading indicator PPI increases the possibility of a new cycle start. In terms of asset - pricing expectations, the macro - expectations implied by the exchange rate and the equity market are significantly stronger than those at the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023, and the enterprise's willingness to settle foreign exchange has been continuously rising [4]. - **Nature of the Current Market**: The current market recovery is more of a phased rebound. Considering the "short duration + high divergence" pattern in the microstructure of the bond market and the relatively low fundamental headwinds at present, the market is in a phased rebound process. However, the trend pressure on the fundamentals has not been falsified, and after the second quarter, the possibility of the resonance of rising investment returns, the recovery of corporate leverage, and capital inflows needs to be monitored [5][44]. 3.4 Market Performance and Index Analysis - **Central Bank's Monetary Operations**: This week, the central bank carried out a net injection of 22.95 billion yuan through reverse repurchase, and conducted a 900 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation on Friday, with a net injection of 70 billion yuan, the highest since January 2024 [46]. - **Funds Rate Movement**: The operating centers of DR001, DR007, and DR014 have moved up 1bp, down 2bp, and up 4bp respectively to 1.37%, 1.49%, and 1.58%. Affected by the tax - payment period, the funds rate first rose and then fell during the week [46]. - **Treasury Yield Changes**: Except for the 1 - year treasury yield, which rose by 4bp to 1.28%, the yields of other - term treasuries declined. The 10 - year treasury yield fell by 1bp to 1.83%, and the 10 - 1 - year term spread narrowed by 5bp to 55bp [47]. - **Bond Duration Changes**: From January 19th to January 23rd, the median duration of public funds increased slightly by 0.01 to 2.71 years, at the 28th percentile in the past three years. The duration divergence index rose rapidly to 0.58, at the 91st percentile in the past three years [49]. - **Interest Rate Synchronous Indicators**: This week, the signals released by the ten interest rate synchronous indicators were mainly "bearish", accounting for 6/10. Compared with last week, the enterprise recruitment forward - looking index and the US dollar index sent "bearish" signals [52]. 3.5 Local Bond Market Analysis - **Local Bond Financing and Issuance Scale**: This week, the net financing scale of local bonds increased month - on - month, with a significant increase in the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds. From January 1st to 23rd, 2026, the total issuance of local bonds was 424.1 billion yuan, slightly lower than 513.7 billion yuan in the same period of 2025. The issuance scale of various types of local bonds was lower than that of last year, with the issuance scale of new general bonds and ordinary refinancing bonds significantly lower than last year [53][65]. - **Local Bond Issuance Term**: This week, the weighted average issuance term of local bonds decreased month - on - month, mainly due to the decrease in the issuance term of special refinancing bonds. From January 1st to 23rd, 2026, the weighted average issuance term of local bonds was 18 years, basically the same as last year. The weighted average issuance terms of new general bonds and special refinancing bonds decreased, while those of new special bonds and ordinary refinancing bonds increased [58][67]. - **Local Bond Issuance Spread**: This week, the issuance spread of local bonds decreased by 3bp month - on - month. The weighted average spread between the local bond issuance rate and the secondary - market local bond rate of the same term was - 4bp, a slight decrease from - 1bp last week. Except for ordinary refinancing bonds, the issuance spreads of other types of local bonds continued to decline [61]. - **Local Bond Issuance Progress**: In January, the actual issuance progress of local bonds was 52% of the planned issuance. Sichuan, Zhejiang, Ningbo, Gansu and other places have completed the planned issuance scale, while Hunan, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Jiangxi have relatively slow issuance progress. Next week (January 26th - 30th), the expected issuance scale of local bonds is 383.1 billion yuan [71].

格陵兰岛风波在瑞士达沃斯的世界经济论坛年会期间，经历了一个戏剧性的急转弯。美国总统特朗普一开始发出了不卖岛就加关税的威胁，引发了全球金融 市场的剧烈波动。然而，仅仅几天后，他突然改口，宣布与北约达成了一个协议框架，取消了先前的关税威胁和武力威胁。面对美国政策的频繁反复和不确 定性，欧洲一批重要的机构投资者，尤其是丹麦的AkademikerPension养老基金，率先发出了卖出美国的信号。这些机构手握超过3.6万亿美元的美债，它们 是否能在一定程度上浇灭美国对格陵兰岛的野心，成为全球关注的焦点。 特朗普突然撤回关税威胁，协议框架究竟包含了什么内容呢？1月21日，特朗普在瑞士达沃斯的世界经济论坛年会上宣布，经过与北约秘书长马克·吕特的卓 有成效会晤，双方就格陵兰岛及整个北极地区未来的协议框架达成了初步共识。基于这一协议，他决定取消此前计划于2月1日生效的对丹麦、挪威、瑞典、 法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰等八个欧洲国家加征关税的措施。然而，这份所谓的协议框架并未被美方和北约完全公开。特朗普表示，该协议将涉及防务 和矿产开采安排，称这对所有相关方都将有利，并表示美国得到了它想要的一切。根据央视新闻的报道，尽管协议并不 ...