刚刚，日本3个月国债收益率暴涨超34%，10年期国债收益率一度达到了1.85%，各期限国债全线暴涨， 这对应的就是日本国债的全线暴跌。与此同时，美股期指全线杀跌，日经指数大幅跳水。 那么，究竟发生了什么？分析人士认为，可能与日本息口和美联储的异动有关。日本央行行长植田和男 表示，将在下次货币政策会议上考虑提高政策利率的利弊。而关于美联储主席人事问题亦被市场关注， 甚至再度波及美联储的独立性。 全线崩跌 日本国债市场掀起大浪。该国3个月国债收益率暴涨超34%，对应的是其国债暴跌。日本10年期国债收 益率上升5个基点至1.85%。日本2年期国债收益率升至2008年以来最高水平。与此同时，日经指数一度 暴跌近2%。 （原标题：刚刚全线暴跌！黑天鹅突袭！日本国债又崩了 冲击有多大？） 日本国债又崩了！ 掉期市场当前预计日本央行在12月19日公布政策决定时加息的可能性约为62%，到2026年1月的会议上 这一可能性将升至近90%，而两周前市场预计12月加息的可能性仅为30%。 此外，日本财务省计划增加短期债务发行，为日本首相高市早苗的经济刺激方案筹集资金，其中2年期 和5年期国债各增加3000亿日元（约19.2亿美元） ...

Group 1: Key Factors Influencing the Bond Market - The ongoing bull market in A-shares is expected to continue exerting pressure on the bond market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 28% since April 8, 2025, reaching a high of 4034 points on November 14, 2025 [2][3] - New tax regulations and redemption fee rules are anticipated to negatively impact the bond market, as the reintroduction of VAT on interest income from newly issued bonds increases costs for investors [6][7] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may open up monetary easing space in China, but the benefits for the bond market are expected to be limited due to a preference for equities among foreign investors [9][10] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The real estate market's downturn and historically low bank deposit rates are driving residents to shift their savings into the stock market, with a total reduction of 2.34 trillion yuan in household deposits from July to October 2025 [3][6] - The new regulations on redemption fees for funds are likely to increase short-term costs for bond investors, potentially leading to a shift in investment strategies towards direct bond purchases rather than bond funds [7][8] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed government bond trading to guide the yield curve, with net purchases of 20 billion yuan in October 2025, although this is significantly lower than previous months [11][13] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - The economic fundamentals in China are expected to remain weak, with October data showing lower-than-expected export, production, and investment figures, leading to a potential need for further interest rate cuts [10][13] - The PBOC's actions, including the resumption of government bond trading, aim to stabilize the bond market and mitigate rising yield pressures, with expectations that the 10-year government bond yield will struggle to fall below 1.6% [11][13] - Overall, the bond market is likely to experience a range-bound fluctuation in yields due to the interplay of supportive monetary policy and ongoing pressures from the equity market [13]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is experiencing significant turmoil, with a sharp rise in yields leading to a corresponding drop in bond prices, influenced by potential changes in monetary policy by the Bank of Japan and concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Reaction - The yield on Japan's 3-month government bonds surged over 34%, while the 10-year bond yield reached 1.85%, marking a notable increase [1][2]. - The 2-year government bond yield has risen to its highest level since 2008, indicating a broader trend of increasing yields across various maturities [2]. - The market is anticipating a 62% chance of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in its December 19 policy meeting, with expectations rising to nearly 90% by January 2026 [2]. Group 2: Economic Context - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that while there are signs of weakness in the global economy, Japan's economy is gradually recovering, albeit with some soft spots [2]. - Ueda emphasized the importance of wage negotiations and indicated that if economic forecasts are met, a rate hike could be on the table, although the overall financial environment would remain accommodative [2]. Group 3: Government Debt Issuance - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to increase short-term debt issuance to fund Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's economic stimulus plan, adding 300 billion yen (approximately 1.92 billion USD) each for 2-year and 5-year bonds, and increasing treasury bills by 6.3 trillion yen [3]. Group 4: Market Impact - The turmoil in Japan's bond market has negatively impacted U.S. stock futures, leading to a broad sell-off, while Asian markets also showed weakness [4]. - However, the weakening U.S. dollar may mitigate the impact on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as it supports commodity prices and enhances liquidity in emerging markets [4]. - Analysts suggest that the A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend in December, with potential volatility, while Hong Kong stocks may experience a gradual upward trend influenced by signals from the Federal Reserve [4].

植田和男讲话后，美元对日元走低至155.60，上周曾一度升至156.18高位，已超过通常的"干预"预警水 平155。日本东证指数涨幅扩大至1%。10年期日本国债收益率上升5个基点至1.85%，续创2008年6月以 来最高。30年期国债日本收益率也上升5个基点至3.385%。两年期日本国债收益率也自2008年来首次触 及1.00%大关。 随着日元疲软加剧，以及高市早苗政府对弱日元的容忍度下降，市场上周开始对日本央行加息预期大幅 回升。 今日（1日），日本央行行长植田和男上午发表讲话后，其内容将市场对12月政策转向的猜测推向了高 潮。 但他也提示，投资日本眼下确实也存在一些风险，比如30年期日债持续呈现上升趋势。 植田和男助燃加息预期 在今日的讲话中，植田和男强调，日本央行"将在12月会议上就利率问题做出正确决定"，"如果经济展 望实现，将加息"，"我们将在下次货币政策会议上考虑提高政策利率的利弊。"这被市场解读为结束超 宽松货币政策的强烈暗示。 "为顺利实现物价稳定目标，有必要适时调整宽松力度，既不能过晚，也不能过早；越来越多观点认 为，关税政策对企业利润的影响将是有限的；日本经济前景的不确定性似乎正在逐步减弱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government is planning to issue approximately 11.7 trillion yen (about 529.9 billion RMB) in new bonds to finance a large-scale economic stimulus plan, which has raised concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal health and the balance between economic stimulus and fiscal responsibility [1][4][7]. Group 1: Economic Stimulus Plan - The comprehensive economic strategy finalized by the Japanese government amounts to approximately 21.3 trillion yen, with general account expenditures expected to be around 18.3 trillion yen, marking a significant increase of 27% compared to the previous year [2]. - The economic measures included in this plan represent the largest stimulus since the pandemic began, with the costs associated with the economic strategy estimated at 17.7 trillion yen [2]. Group 2: Debt Issuance and Market Reaction - The scale of the new bond issuance far exceeds the 6.7 trillion yen bonds issued by the previous administration, indicating a high reliance on debt financing [4]. - Despite a record tax revenue forecast of 80.7 trillion yen for the current fiscal year, the new debt issuance reflects ongoing concerns about Japan's long-term fiscal outlook, leading to continued selling pressure on the yen and Japanese government bonds [1][5]. Group 3: Interest Rates and Currency Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to approximately 1.814%, with long-term bond yields increasing due to market concerns over fiscal deterioration and expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [5][9]. - The yen has stabilized around 156 against the dollar, influenced by market expectations of a potential interest rate hike in December, which has mitigated some depreciation pressures [5][8]. Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - There are rising concerns that the Japanese government's ability to balance economic stimulus with fiscal discipline is under scrutiny, especially as the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 260% [7]. - If the government continues to rely on debt issuance without implementing tax reforms or controlling social security expenditures, the long-term fiscal situation may worsen, leading to higher interest payments that could crowd out other budgetary needs [7][9]. - The potential for renewed selling pressure on the yen and Japanese bonds exists if the Bank of Japan delays interest rate hikes, which could further erode market confidence in Japan's fiscal and monetary policies [9][10].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-01 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251114 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

Bond Market - In October, the bond market issued a total of 63,574.6 billion yuan in various bonds, including 11,695.5 billion yuan in government bonds, 5,604.7 billion yuan in local government bonds, 8,010.8 billion yuan in financial bonds, 11,836.2 billion yuan in corporate credit bonds, 343.4 billion yuan in credit asset-backed securities, and 25,649.0 billion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit [1] - As of the end of October, the bond market's custody balance reached 194.6 trillion yuan, with 171.7 trillion yuan in the interbank market and 22.9 trillion yuan in the exchange market [1] - The custody balance for different bond types includes 39.4 trillion yuan in government bonds, 53.7 trillion yuan in local government bonds, 44.2 trillion yuan in financial bonds, 34.4 trillion yuan in corporate credit bonds, 1.0 trillion yuan in credit asset-backed securities, and 20.7 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit [1] Trading Activity - In October, the cash bond trading volume reached 26.6 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.2% and a month-on-month increase of 3.9% [2] - The average transaction size was 4,177.69 million yuan, with transactions between 5 million and 50 million yuan accounting for 48.06% of the total trading amount [2] - Foreign institutions held a custody balance of 3.8 trillion yuan in the Chinese bond market, representing 1.9% of the total custody balance, with 2.0 trillion yuan in government bonds [2] Money Market - In October, the interbank lending market recorded a transaction volume of 6.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 26.7% [3] - The weighted average interest rate for interbank lending was 1.39%, down 6 basis points month-on-month [3] - The commercial bill acceptance amount was 3.9 trillion yuan, with small and micro enterprises accounting for 93.4% of the total bill issuers [3] Stock Market - By the end of October, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,954.8 points, up 72.0 points or 1.9% month-on-month, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,378.2 points, down 148.3 points or 1.1% [4] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai market was 961.58 billion yuan, down 6.8% month-on-month, while the Shenzhen market's average daily trading volume was 1,182.93 billion yuan, down 13.1% [4] - The interbank bond market had 3,987 institutional members, all of which were financial institutions, with the top 50 investors holding 53.2% of corporate credit bonds [4]

中国人民银行11月30日公布的最新数据显示，10月份，债券市场共发行各类债券63574.6亿元。其中， 国债发行11695.5亿元，地方政府债券发行5604.7亿元，金融债券发行8010.8亿元，公司信用类债券发行 11836.2亿元，信贷资产支持证券发行343.4亿元，同业存单发行25649.0亿元。债券市场托管余额194.6万 亿元。 债券市场运行方面，10月份，银行间债券市场现券成交26.6万亿元，日均成交1.5万亿元，同比增加 10.2%，环比增加3.9%。单笔成交量在500-5000万元的交易占总成交金额的48.06%，单笔成交量在9000 万元以上的交易占总成交金额的45.68%，单笔平均成交量4177.69万元。交易所债券市场现券成交3.3万 亿元，日均成交1937.9亿元。商业银行柜台债券成交6.6万笔，成交金额587.3亿元。 债券市场对外开放情况方面，截至10月末，境外机构在中国债券市场的托管余额3.8万亿元，占中国债 券市场托管余额的比重为1.9%。其中，境外机构在银行间债券市场的债券托管余额3.7万亿元；分券种 看，境外机构持有国债2.0万亿元、占比54.7%，同业存单0.8万亿元、占 ...

从年内行情轨迹看，白银的牛市行情脉络清晰且极具爆发力。10月9日晚间，现货白银迎来历史性突破，盘中首次站上50美元/盎司；涨势进一步蔓延至10月 17日，现货白银冲高至54.468美元/盎司后进入高位震荡，期间一度急跌至45.513美元/盎司。11月起，白银重拾涨势，从48美元/盎司一线震荡走高，再度突 破50美元关口并触及54.394美元，短暂整理后于11月28日迎来新突破，当日现货白银最大涨幅超6%，突破56美元/盎司至56.533美元/盎司的历史新高，至此 今年以来累计涨幅已达95.24%，成为年内表现最强势的贵金属品种。 对于本轮白银的强劲涨势，苏商银行特约研究员武泽伟指出，核心驱动力来自三重因素的叠加共振。从金融属性与市场情绪看，美联储降息周期开启后，全 球私人投资者资金大规模涌入贵金属ETF，且市场普遍认为白银相对黄金存在明显估值洼地，催生强烈的"追赶式"补涨需求；从实物供需层面，全球交易所 白银库存已降至近十年低位，伦敦市场可自由流通白银较2019年峰值下降约75%，而光伏、电动汽车等工业领域需求持续增长，进一步加剧现货市场紧张； 短期市场机制也起到关键催化作用，美国贸易政策不确定性促使实物白银 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the economic main - line adheres to high - quality development, emphasizing new - quality productivity and modern industrial layout, and focusing on expanding domestic demand. The policy framework aims at structural adjustment, with coordinated fiscal and monetary policies. An active fiscal policy will continue, with the central bank expected to cut interest rates by 10 - 20BP and reduce the reserve requirement ratio once. Investment and consumption are expected to recover moderately, and inflation recovery is the biggest uncertainty in the bond market. The after - tax interest rate of 10 - year treasury bonds will fluctuate between 1.7% - 1.9%, with a mid - bond valuation of 1.75 - 1.95%, and the rhythm may be lower in the first half and higher in the second half [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" Adheres to High - Quality Development, Balancing Development and Security - **External Environment and Goal Orientation**: The "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" period faces a more uncertain external environment, with strategic opportunities coexisting with risks and challenges. The goal is to achieve a moderately developed level of per capita GDP by 2035, and the GDP of the "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" and "Sixteenth Five - Year Plan" periods needs to grow at an average annual rate of 4.17%. The development main - line is centered around economic construction, with high - quality development as the theme and reform and innovation as the driving force [8][21]. - **Supply - and - Demand - Side Joint Efforts**: The supply side focuses on new - quality productivity and modern industrial layout, while the demand side aims to boost consumption and expand effective investment. In the short term, the economic fundamentals need to be consolidated, but the 2025 target is not difficult to achieve [23][24][27]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy Boosts Domestic Demand, and Monetary Policy Continues the New Model - **Macro Policy Framework**: China has formed a complete macro - policy framework aiming at structural transformation, coordinating multiple policies to promote sustainable economic growth and adjust the economic structure [32]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The active fiscal policy will continue, with a focus on boosting consumption and expanding effective investment. The estimated deficit rates of 4% and 4.5% may result in deficit scales of 6 trillion and 6.7 trillion yuan respectively. The government will also continue to promote debt resolution [34][35][40]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank will use interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts cautiously, with an expected interest rate cut of 10 - 20BP and a single reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026. It will adopt a new model of combining cautious use of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts with active use of structural tools to maintain liquidity and support the real economy [43][46]. 3.3 Investment Focuses More on Efficiency, and Inflation May Continuously Improve - **Investment**: In 2026, investment will increase, with a focus on efficiency and concentration in key projects, regions, and industries. Real estate is expected to remain at a low level, infrastructure investment will be targeted, and manufacturing investment will focus on new - quality productivity [54][57][63]. - **Consumption**: Consumption is expected to continue to improve, with consumer confidence rising and the special treasury bond expenditure for trade - in programs likely to be no less than 300 billion yuan in 2026 [66]. - **Inflation**: The decline in PPI is expected to continue to narrow, and CPI may turn positive, growing by about 0.4% in 2026 [71]. 3.4 Liquidity and Interest Rate Outlook - **Funding**: The central bank will maintain stable and low - volatility funding prices, and the 10 - year treasury bond after - tax interest rate will fluctuate between 1.7% - 1.9%, with a mid - bond valuation of 1.75 - 1.95%, and the rhythm may be lower in the first half and higher in the second half [11][75][103]. - **External Factors**: The Fed's entry into the interest rate cut cycle may lead to an increase in corporate foreign exchange settlement willingness, which may affect liquidity. Deposit transfer may continue, increasing the bank's liability pressure [81][87]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: In 2026, the 10 - year treasury bond will fluctuate around the policy rate, and the long - term interest rate is expected to remain volatile at a low level. The bond market will have low volatility, and the interest rate will maintain a low - level oscillation [97][103].