Group 1 - In Q1 2025, the US stock market experienced its worst quarterly performance since 2022, with the Nasdaq Composite down 10.4%, S&P 500 down 4.6%, and Dow Jones down 1.28% [1] - The decline in tech stocks was significant, with Tesla down approximately 36%, Nvidia down over 19%, and Apple down over 11%. The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks index fell 14.83% [1] - Despite the overall downturn, defensive stocks provided stable returns, with seven out of eleven S&P 500 sectors achieving positive returns, including energy up nearly 8% and healthcare up 5% [2][3] Group 2 - The European market showed strong performance in Q1 2025, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index rising about 5%, contrasting with the US market [2] - Increased defense spending in Germany and other European countries led to significant gains in defense-related stocks, with Rheinmetall up 134.73% and Thales up 91.48% [2] - Analysts suggest that many US stocks, particularly in tech, are overvalued, while energy, healthcare, and utility sectors are undervalued, indicating a potential shift in investment focus towards international stocks [3]

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 引言： 开年以来，"Deepseek"触发中美科技此消彼长叙事，恒生科技为代表的中国科技资产领涨全球，而美股&美元表 现不佳。战略层面："Deepseek"带来中国科技资产的价值重估，但并未逆转（逆全球化加剧、债务周期错位、AI产业趋 势）三大底层逻辑，因此，全球资产配置仍然是反脆弱的"全球杠铃策略"。而战术层面："全球杠铃策略"应该如何调整，来 应对"东升西落"的新叙事？ ● 美股：低波动—>高波动，下调↓权重。 过去两年，标普500维持偏低的波动率，一定程度上源自内部成分股之间偏低的相 关性，偏低的相关性则源自AI产业叙事下（7姐妹为代表的）美股科技龙头与非科技龙头间的分化，增加美股的分散性。当 前，标普500内部成分股间的相关性仍处于历史低点。我们判断，2025年，均值回归的牵引力、美国经济衰退压力（美股或 面临系统风险）、美国AI产业趋势一枝独秀的格局被打破（科技股独立行情门槛变高）等因素都将带来美股个股间相关性提 升（美股科技龙头与非科技龙头之间的分化将收敛）—>美股波动率 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05% on April 2, with 18 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by textiles and apparel (1.45%) and beauty and personal care (1.01%) [1] - The sectors with the largest declines were defense and military (1.17%) and non-ferrous metals (0.87%), with public utilities ranking third in terms of decline [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital flow showed a net outflow of 8.051 billion yuan across the two markets, with 9 sectors seeing net inflows [1] - The non-bank financial sector led with a net inflow of 1.787 billion yuan and a daily increase of 0.58%, followed by the telecommunications sector with a net inflow of 963 million yuan and a daily increase of 0.97% [1] - A total of 22 sectors experienced net outflows, with the pharmaceutical and biological sector leading with a net outflow of 2.759 billion yuan, followed by the electronics sector with a net outflow of 2 billion yuan [1] Public Utilities Sector Performance - The public utilities sector declined by 0.80% with a net outflow of 1.09 billion yuan, comprising 132 stocks, of which 20 rose and 106 fell [2] - Among the stocks in this sector, 44 saw net inflows, with the top three being Shaoneng Co. (39.724 million yuan), Guangdong Electric Power A (27.7136 million yuan), and Hunan Development (20.6605 million yuan) [2] - The stocks with the highest net outflows included China General Nuclear Power (1.399735 billion yuan), Qianyuan Electric Power (1.218559 billion yuan), and China Nuclear Power (1.042745 billion yuan) [2] Public Utilities Sector Capital Inflow Rankings - The top stocks by capital inflow included: - Shaoneng Co. with a rise of 3.67% and a turnover rate of 17.31%, net inflow of 39.724 million yuan [3] - Guangdong Electric Power A with a rise of 1.95% and a turnover rate of 3.20%, net inflow of 27.7136 million yuan [3] - Hunan Development with a rise of 10.00% and a turnover rate of 0.70%, net inflow of 20.6605 million yuan [3] Public Utilities Sector Capital Outflow Rankings - The stocks with the highest capital outflows included: - China General Nuclear Power with a decline of 1.89% and a turnover rate of 0.44%, net outflow of 139.9735 million yuan [4] - Qianyuan Electric Power with a decline of 4.70% and a turnover rate of 6.81%, net outflow of 121.8559 million yuan [4] - China Nuclear Power with a decline of 0.96% and a turnover rate of 0.37%, net outflow of 104.2745 million yuan [4]

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn ● 美股：低波动—>高波动，下调↓权重。 过去两年，标普500维持偏低的波动率，一定程度上源自内部成分股之间偏低的相 关性，偏低的相关性则源自AI产业叙事下（7姐妹为代表的）美股科技龙头与非科技龙头间的分化，增加美股的分散性。当 前，标普500内部成分股间的相关性仍处于历史低点。我们判断，2025年，均值回归的牵引力、美国经济衰退压力（美股或 面临系统风险）、美国AI产业趋势一枝独秀的格局被打破（科技股独立行情门槛变高）等因素都将带来美股个股间相关性提 升（美股科技龙头与非科技龙头之间的分化将收敛）—>美股波动率加大—>资产配置组合中下调↓美股权重。 ● 中资股： 短期事缓则圆，中长期行情驱动力有望更健康。 短期视角，我们在 25.2.28《牛市二阶段，事缓则圆》 提示： 周线6连阳后，港股短期行情有所透支，事缓则圆，等待政策落地和科技产业叙事验证。从历史经验看6连阳后不建议追涨领 先板块，反而应关注本轮落后的低波、股息、价值、质量因子，如：银行、公用事业、石油石化、电信服务等。更长期视 角，本轮 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the continued significance of low volatility factors as resonance factors in investment strategies, integrating macroeconomic quantitative insights with factor momentum [1][2] - The analysis indicates that the economic recovery is ongoing, liquidity is returning to a neutral-tight state, and credit indicators are improving, with no need for adjustments based on micro mappings [1][2] - The stock pool configurations for various indices such as CSI 300 and CSI 1000 show a consistent preference for low volatility and growth factors, with value factors also being selected in the CSI 500 index [2] Group 2 - Economic leading indicators are positioned in the late stage of an upward trend, with expectations of reaching a peak by June 2025 and entering a downward cycle by December 2025 [3][8] - Specific indicators such as PMI and fixed asset investment are showing positive trends, suggesting continued economic growth in the near term [3][9] - The liquidity environment is tightening, with short-term interest rates rising above their moving averages, indicating a shift towards a tighter monetary policy [11][15] Group 3 - Credit indicators have shown improvement, with social financing stock increasing for two consecutive months, reflecting a more favorable credit environment [16][18] - The asset allocation strategy suggests reducing bond and US stock positions while increasing allocations in A-shares and commodities, reflecting a bullish outlook on domestic markets [18][22] - The focus on liquidity as a key variable driving market performance indicates that fluctuations in liquidity will significantly impact stock volatility and overall market dynamics [19][22]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.38% on April 1, with 23 industries experiencing gains, led by the pharmaceutical and public utilities sectors, which increased by 3.34% and 1.78% respectively [1] - The main funds in the two markets saw a net outflow of 10.395 billion yuan, with 8 industries recording net inflows, primarily in the pharmaceutical sector, which had a net inflow of 3.402 billion yuan [1] Public Utilities Sector - The public utilities sector increased by 1.78%, with a total net inflow of 1.272 billion yuan, and out of 132 stocks in this sector, 123 rose while 6 fell [2] - The top three stocks in terms of net inflow were Guodian Power (1.72 billion yuan), China Nuclear Power (1.50 billion yuan), and Star Power (1.13 billion yuan) [2] Public Utilities Sector - Inflow and Outflow - The inflow list includes Guodian Power with a 3.60% increase and a turnover rate of 1.82%, followed by China Nuclear Power with a 1.74% increase [2] - The outflow list is led by Shaoneng Co. with a 5.93% increase but a net outflow of 40.658 million yuan, followed by Sheneng Co. and Chuan Investment Energy with net outflows of 25.416 million yuan and 23.768 million yuan respectively [4]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Health Industry Index closed at 1065.07 points, with a 2.99% increase over the past month, a 0.09% decrease over the past three months, and a 0.09% decline year-to-date [1] - The index comprises the 50 largest listed companies in the healthcare, food safety, and environmental protection sectors on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, using equal weighting to reflect the overall performance of these companies [1] - The top ten weighted companies in the index include Fulongma (3.18%), Borui Pharmaceutical (2.57%), Daotong Technology (2.44%), WuXi AppTec (2.37%), Yifeng Pharmacy (2.21%), Hanlan Environment (2.21%), Bright Meat (2.20%), Longjing Environmental Protection (2.16%), Huitai Medical (2.16%), and Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (2.15%) [1] Group 2 - The index samples are adjusted every six months, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December, with a sample adjustment ratio generally not exceeding 20% [2] - Weight factors are adjusted along with the sample changes, and remain fixed until the next scheduled adjustment unless a special situation arises [2] - Companies that are delisted or undergo mergers, acquisitions, or splits are handled according to the calculation and maintenance guidelines [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Gas (01193) is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 102.68 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. The core profit was HKD 4.15 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.02%, while the profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.7% to HKD 4.09 billion [1]. - The gas sales business demonstrated resilience with a total gas sales volume of 39.91 billion cubic meters, up 2.9% year-on-year. The average gas sales cost decreased to HKD 2.89 per cubic meter, leading to a gross margin of HKD 0.53 per cubic meter, an increase of 0.02 year-on-year [2]. - The new user connection growth slowed down due to a decline in new construction in the real estate sector, with new residential users decreasing by 15.8% to 2.791 million. The profit from the connection business fell by 27.6% to HKD 2.93 billion [3]. - The comprehensive service business achieved a revenue of HKD 4.21 billion, with a profit of HKD 1.4 billion, while the comprehensive energy business saw a revenue increase of 13.8% to HKD 1.87 billion [4]. - The company maintained a stable dividend policy, proposing a core dividend of HKD 0.95 per share, a 3.4% increase year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 53% [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was HKD 102.68 billion, a 1.4% increase year-on-year. Core profit was HKD 4.15 billion, with a slight increase of 0.02%. Profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.7% to HKD 4.09 billion [1]. Gas Sales Business - Total gas sales volume reached 39.91 billion cubic meters, up 2.9% year-on-year. The average gas sales cost was HKD 2.89 per cubic meter, down by HKD 0.1, resulting in a gross margin of HKD 0.53 per cubic meter, an increase of HKD 0.02 year-on-year. The profit from gas sales was HKD 7.975 billion, reflecting an 8.6% increase [2]. User Connections - New residential user connections decreased by 15.8% to 2.791 million due to a decline in real estate construction. The profit from the connection business fell by 27.6% to HKD 2.93 billion, with a profit margin of 31.6%, down approximately 5.5 percentage points [3]. Comprehensive Services and Energy - The comprehensive service business generated HKD 4.21 billion in revenue, with a profit of HKD 1.4 billion. The comprehensive energy business saw a revenue increase of 13.8% to HKD 1.87 billion, with a gross profit of HKD 360 million, a 33.6% increase [4]. Dividend Policy - The company proposed a core dividend of HKD 0.95 per share, a 3.4% increase year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 53% [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company expects pressure on connection business in 2025, but growth in gas volume and gross margin indicates resilience. Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are HKD 4.33 billion, HKD 5.02 billion, and HKD 5.87 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 5.9%, 15.9%, and 17% respectively [5].

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.46% on March 31, with four industries rising, notably communication and home appliances, which increased by 0.58% and 0.37% respectively [1] - The public utility sector saw a slight increase of 0.15%, with a net inflow of 3.11 billion yuan in main funds [1][2] - A total of 26 industries experienced net outflows, with the power equipment sector leading at a net outflow of 5.83 billion yuan [1] Industry Summary - **Public Utility Sector Performance** - The public utility sector had 132 stocks, with 47 rising and 72 falling; three stocks hit the daily limit up while one hit the limit down [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow were Shaoneng Co. (1.61 billion yuan), Guodian Power (1.19 billion yuan), and Huadian International (848.95 million yuan) [2] - The sector's net outflow stocks included ST Lingda, Mingxing Power, and China Nuclear Power, with outflows of 71.08 million yuan, 26.69 million yuan, and 25.52 million yuan respectively [3] - **Top Gainers in Public Utility Sector** - Shaoneng Co. increased by 9.98% with a turnover rate of 8.27% and a main fund flow of 161.06 million yuan [2] - Guodian Power rose by 1.83% with a turnover rate of 1.74% and a main fund flow of 118.66 million yuan [2] - Huadian International saw a rise of 4.55% with a turnover rate of 2.99% and a main fund flow of 84.89 million yuan [2] - **Top Losers in Public Utility Sector** - ST Lingda fell by 10.18% with a turnover rate of 16.58% and a main fund outflow of 71.08 million yuan [3] - Mingxing Power increased by 3.71% but had a main fund outflow of 26.69 million yuan [3] - China Nuclear Power decreased by 0.86% with a main fund outflow of 25.52 million yuan [3]

注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 今日各行业表现(截至上午收盘) | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌(%) | 成交额(亿元) | 比上日(%) | 领涨(跌)股 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 银行 | 0.52 | 216.59 | 87.20 | 江阴银行 | 4.49 | | 公用事业 | 0.34 | 192.36 | 33.95 | 立新能源 | 10.00 | | 石油石化 | 0.17 | 57.60 | -6.02 | 和顺石油 | 10.01 | | 家用电器 | -0.14 | 204.52 | 29.27 | 宏昌科技 | -7.95 | | 煤炭 | -0.35 | 52.61 | 6.28 | 辽宁能源 | -8.71 | | 交通运输 | -0.48 | 124.87 | 18.48 | 龙洲股份 | -10.02 | | 通信 | -0.79 | 266.79 | 0.42 | 精伦电子 | -10.09 | | 美容护理 | -1.11 | 23.25 | 9.83 | 可靠股份 | - ...