本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责 任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用 、删节和修改。 贵金属期货日报 2026/3/2 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 49.3↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） 24431 | 1197.220 | | | +1412.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) +4447.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) 7,186.00 | 154,593.00 | | | -883.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 319,930.00 +125220.00↑ ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the short - term bullish data is digested, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price will enter a shock adjustment state again. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro news [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 15,225 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; cotton futures' top 20 net positions are - 191,520 hands, down 9,605 hands; the main contract's cotton position is 794,513 hands, down 43,467 hands; the cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 11,327 sheets, up 155 sheets; China's cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) is 16,633 yuan/ton; China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,697 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan; China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) is 13,786 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [2] - The main contract closing price of cotton yarn is 21,100 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the top 20 net positions of cotton yarn futures are - 1,397 hands, down 68 hands; the main contract's cotton yarn position is 14,198 hands, down 296 hands; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 0 sheets; the China yarn price index (pure - combed cotton yarn 32 - count) is 21,920 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - combed cotton yarn 32 - count) is 21,517 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - combed cotton yarn 32 - count) is 22,998 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan [2] Spot Market - The China cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) is 16,633 yuan/ton; the China imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,697 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan; the China imported cotton price index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) is 13,786 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - combed cotton yarn 32 - count) is 21,517 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - combed cotton yarn 32 - count) is 22,998 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,287 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton in the whole country is 861,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons; the import quantity of cotton is 180,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons; the import quantity of cotton yarn is 170,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the import cotton profit is 2,870 yuan/ton; the commercial inventory of cotton in the whole country is 5.7887 million tons, an increase of 4,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 21.71 days, a decrease of 3.41 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 33.13 days, a decrease of 0.63 days; the cloth output is 3.01 billion meters, an increase of 200 million meters; the yarn output is 2.132 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons; the export amount of clothing and clothing accessories is 134,124,120,000 US dollars, an increase of 181,872,600 US dollars; the export amount of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 125,796,030,000 US dollars, an increase of 303,870,000 US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 17.73%, a decrease of 1.46%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 17.73%, a decrease of 1.46%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 17.91%, a decrease of 0.43%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 13.48%, unchanged [2] Industry News - As of February 24, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 103,424 hands, an increase of 3,841 hands from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 132,394 hands, a decrease of 22,922 hands from the previous week; the net short positions were 28,970 hands, a decrease of 26,763 hands from the previous week [2] - As of February 27, 2026, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 5.2676 million tons, a decrease of 87,800 tons (a decrease of 1.64%) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 4.1005 million tons, a decrease of 112,600 tons (a decrease of 2.67%) from the previous week; the commercial cotton in the inland area was 629,000 tons, an increase of 20,800 tons (an increase of 3.42%) from the previous week [2] - In the week ending February 19, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 253,200 bales, a decrease of 46% from the previous week and a decrease of 12% from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 193,000 bales, an increase of 12% from the previous week and a decrease of 10% from the average level of the previous four weeks [2] Domestic Market - On the supply side, the warehousing speed of port cotton has slowed down, and the ex - warehouse speed is OK. As of February 26, the inventory of major ports for imported cotton was 538,100 tons, a 0.75% increase from the previous period. On the consumption side, Xinjiang textile enterprises have basically started work, the spinning start - up rate has rebounded, the finished product inventory has increased, and they mainly ship pre - orders [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 24,465.00 | +630.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,773.00 | +29.00↑ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -170.00 | +10.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -43.00 | -28.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 277,833.00 | +19143.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 344,019.00 | -33877.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 44,700.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 384,695.00 | +18006.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 3,141.50 | 0.00 LME铝库存（日，吨） | 465,550.00 | -2000.00↓ | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market supply - demand pattern of the pig industry is loose, and pig prices will continue to be under pressure. It is necessary to pay special attention to the impact of the entry of secondary fattening on supply and prices. The main 2605 contract opened low and moved lower, hitting a new low since its listing, and continued to be under pressure from the system moving average [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 11,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 265 yuan; the main contract position was 165,149 lots, an increase of 9,894 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 1,156 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 45,746 lots, a decrease of 3,038 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Price - The pig price in Zhumadian, Henan was 10,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan; in Siping, Jilin was 9,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,600 yuan; in Yunfu, Guangdong was 11,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan. The main basis of live pigs was - 420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national pig inventory was 42,9670,000 heads, a decrease of 7130,000 heads; the national breeding sow inventory was 3,9610,000 heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI was 0.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn was 2,394.9 yuan, an increase of 4.12 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 945.28, an increase of 13.21; the monthly output of feed was 30,086,000 tons, an increase of 307,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows was 1,429 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 20.83 yuan/head, a decrease of 32.27 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was - 159.65 yuan/head, a decrease of 61.33 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork was 60,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 13.8 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.2 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 4,4040,000 heads, a decrease of 4870,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 573.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.9 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to Mysteel data, the planned pig slaughter volume of key provincial breeding enterprises in March 2026 was 13.7453 million heads, a 17.63% increase compared with the actual slaughter volume in February [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - After the Spring Festival, the breeding side gradually resumed the slaughter rhythm. Based on sow production capacity and the number of newborn piglets, the supply pressure in the near term remains. However, as prices fall, some farms may hold back sales and secondary fattening may enter the market, affecting the supply rhythm. On the demand side, slaughtering enterprises resumed work after the festival, and the slaughter volume rebounded from the holiday low. But in the short term, the terminal is mainly consuming holiday inventory, and with the recent temperature rise, consumption has entered the traditional off - season, and the slaughter volume is difficult to return to the pre - holiday high [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The performance of raw materials in March may be stronger than that of finished products [1] - The iron ore market will enter the overlapping stage of "Two Sessions policy implementation period" and "demand verification period" in March. It is recommended to adopt a short - term bullish - biased and volatile approach, and beware of the callback risk after the policy expectations are fulfilled [5] - The rebar market will enter the "key observation period after the Lantern Festival" in March. It is expected to be volatile and slightly bearish, with limited downside space. It is advisable to take a short - term bearish - biased and volatile approach, not short - sell, and pay attention to the phased rebound opportunities brought by the resumption of work [5] - The hot - rolled coil market should be treated with a short - term volatile approach. Attention should be paid to the demand verification opportunities after the Lantern Festival and the resumption rhythm of steel mills after maintenance [6] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Iron ore: Last week, the iron ore futures price fluctuated strongly. The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 750.5 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.5 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 0.60%. Overseas macro factors include the joint strike on Iran by the US and Israel, the potential new round of tariffs by the US government, and the slightly lower - than - expected initial jobless claims in the US [1][12] - Rebar: Last week, the rebar futures price fluctuated strongly. The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3067 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 12 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 0.39%. Domestic macro factors include more proactive macro - policies, the visit of the German Chancellor to China, and the reduction of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales business by the central bank [1][12] - Hot - rolled coil: Last week, the hot - rolled coil futures price fluctuated weakly. The main 2605 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3215 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 7 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.22%. In the industry, China and South Korea reached a price commitment agreement in the hot - rolled coil anti - dumping case, and South Korea implemented a quota system for Chinese hot - rolled coils [1][12] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Iron Ore - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume rebounded to 3320.9 tons week - on - week, an increase of 631 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased slightly to 2321.1 tons, a decrease of 175 tons week - on - week. The cumulative arrival volume at 47 ports this year increased by 2697 tons year - on - year [2][16] - Demand: The daily average iron - water output of 247 sample steel mills was 233.28 tons/day, an increase of 2.8 tons/day compared with last week, 5.2 tons/day compared with the beginning of the year, and 5.34 tons/day year - on - year [2][16] - Inventory: The total iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 17891.3 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 159 tons, an increase of 1170 tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 2135 tons higher than the same period last year [2][17] 3.2.2 Rebar - Supply: The supply of five major steel products was 796.77 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.98 tons and a decline rate of 1%. The total inventory of five major steel products was 1846.11 tons, a week - on - week increase of 134.27 tons and an increase rate of 7.8% [2][21] - Demand: The weekly consumption of five major steel products was 564.64 tons, a decrease of 10.9%. The consumption of building materials decreased by 47.6% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates decreased by 0.3% week - on - week [2][21] 3.2.3 Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply: Among 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises with a total of 64 production lines, 50 were actually in operation, with an overall operating rate of 78.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56%. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills was 79.10%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05%. The daily average production affected by production line maintenance was 3.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.93 tons. The daily average production affected by under - production was 1.10 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.36 tons. The actual output of steel mills was 309.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20 tons [3][24] - Demand: The in - plant inventory of steel mills was 94.78 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.40 tons. The total volume of hot - rolled commercial coils was about 211.23 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 tons. The total internal supply volume was about 98.38 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 tons [24] 3.2.4 Arbitrage Opportunities - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar (HC - RB) has expanded to about 200 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short hot - rolled coil and long rebar, with a target spread of 50 - 100 yuan/ton [28] 3.3 Future Outlook - Iron ore: The iron ore price fluctuated strongly last week. Although the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, high inventory and slow demand growth pose constraints. In March, the market will enter the overlapping stage of policy implementation and demand verification. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish - biased and volatile approach, pay attention to rebound opportunities driven by policy expectations, and beware of callback risks [5][34] - Rebar: The rebar price fluctuated strongly last week. Demand has started slowly, but inventory pressure is still accumulating. In March, the market will enter the key observation period after the Lantern Festival. It is expected to be volatile and slightly bearish, with limited downside space. It is advisable to take a short - term bearish - biased and volatile approach, not short - sell, and pay attention to phased rebound opportunities [5][34] - Hot - rolled coil: The hot - rolled coil price fluctuated weakly last week. Steel mill maintenance has increased, but production is resilient. Demand start is lagging, and the in - plant inventory pressure is increasing. It is recommended to take a short - term volatile approach, pay attention to demand verification opportunities after the Lantern Festival, and track the resumption rhythm of steel mills after maintenance [6][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In February 2026, the domestic stock index futures market showed an overall oscillating upward trend with structural differentiation. After the Spring Festival, the market's trading activity rebounded significantly, and the small and medium - cap index futures continued to be strong. The bond futures all closed higher last month. In March, the market is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation with structural opportunities, and the volatility may rise compared to February. The small - cap style may still have a relative advantage, but risks such as short - term over - rise and style switching due to geopolitical conflicts need to be watched out for [5][7][32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In February, the domestic stock index futures market showed an oscillating upward trend with structural differentiation. Before the Spring Festival, trading was light, and after the Spring Festival, trading activity rebounded. The small and medium - cap index futures (IC, IM) were strong, while the large - cap blue - chip futures (IF, IH) were weak. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures rose significantly, and the SSE 50 index futures fell slightly. All bond futures closed higher last month [5][6][7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In 2025, the GDP was 140.1879 trillion yuan, a 5.0% increase from the previous year. The first, second, and third - industry added values increased by 3.9%, 4.5%, and 5.4% respectively. The average annual urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, and the year - end rate was 5.1%. The total number of migrant workers was 301.15 million, a 0.5% increase. The CPI was flat compared to the previous year, while the PPI, PPIRM, and agricultural product producer prices decreased by 2.6%, 3.0%, and 3.7% respectively [8][9][13] 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of February 27, the PE and PB of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were provided, along with their respective percentile positions. The overall valuation of the market was at a relatively high historical level, and the small - cap index futures had more prominent valuation pressure [14] 3.4 Other Data - The concept and calculation formulas of the stock - bond spread were introduced. The "Buffett Indicator" was mentioned, and as of February 27, 2026, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 93.20%, with a high percentile position in historical and recent 10 - year data [25][28][29] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - At the macro - level, the policy is in a loose tone, and the US - Iran conflict has become a new variable. At the valuation level, the overall valuation is high, and the small - cap valuation pressure is more prominent. In March, the market is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation with structural opportunities, and the small - cap style may still have an advantage, but risks need to be watched out for [31][32] 3.6 Operation Suggestions - For unilateral trading, participate cautiously and lay out on dips. For small - cap index futures, pay attention but do not chase highs. For arbitrage, consider the strategy of going long on IH and short on IM with strict stop - losses. For options, use the covered call strategy to increase returns and buy out - of - the - money put options for hedging [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the given content Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On February 27, 2026, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 646,500 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 692,400 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 834,000 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 65,500 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1,015,600 contracts; the trading volume of SSE 50 index options was 18,600 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 70,100 contracts; the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 222,000 contracts [1] - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on a recent day, such as 229,000 call contracts and 192,500 put contracts for SSE 50 ETF options, with a total of 421,500 contracts [18] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.79, with a month - on - month change of - 0.08; the position PCR was reported at 0.80, with a month - on - month change of + 0.00. Similar data for other options are also provided, including CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), etc. [2] - The table presents the turnover PCR, month - on - month change, position PCR, and month - on - month change of various index ETF options on a recent day [30] Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 14.44%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.43%; the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 14.62%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.28%. Similar data for other options are also provided [3] - The table shows the VIX and month - on - month change values of various index ETF options on a recent day [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S.-Iran conflict has significant impacts on various sectors, with prices in energy, precious metals, chemicals, and container shipping likely to be affected [8][9]. - The development of the conflict has three scenarios, each with different impacts on the market [8][27]. - Different sectors will respond differently to the conflict, with some being more directly affected and others being more indirectly affected [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Event Development Progress - On February 28 local time, the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, and Iran retaliated by targeting U.S. military bases in the Middle East. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was reported killed in an attack on the same morning [21][23][59]. - As of March 1, most vessels around the Strait of Hormuz remained congested and awaiting passage [22][59]. - Three scenarios for subsequent event development are envisioned: symbolic Iranian retaliation and rapid regime transition; stable Iranian regime and intensified retaliation; prolonged but contained conflict [27][62]. Crude Oil - Crude prices have been supported by U.S.-Iran tensions since January, and after the February 28 military escalation, the market will test whether geopolitical risks translate into actual supply disruptions [9][31][63]. - If conflicts remain limited to military targets and end quickly, Brent crude is expected to trade between $70–$78/bbl before retreating. If production or transport is impacted, short-term price elasticity will increase [9][31][63]. - China's domestic crude futures may see additional support from rising tanker costs and increased demand for alternative crudes, widening the spread between domestic and international benchmarks [9][31][63]. Chemicals - Chemicals like methanol, MEG, fuel oil, and LPG may rise short-term due to geopolitical, cost, and transport concerns, but major facilities in the region remain largely undamaged [10][50]. - Continued attention is needed on conflict duration and strait accessibility [10][50]. Natural Gas - The impact of the Iran situation on the global natural gas market depends primarily on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz [11][38][69]. - A phased slowdown in trade flows following a conflict escalation would provide bullish support to gas prices in Europe and Asia. If a sustained and significant drop in Middle Eastern LNG exports emerges later, it would further stimulate price increases in Eurasian gas markets [11][38][69]. Precious Metals - Precious metals may benefit from rising safe-haven demand in the short term, but the sustainability of rallies depends on the severity and longevity of geopolitical tensions [12][39][70]. - Gold and silver prices could challenge recent highs in March [13][40][70]. Container Shipping - Freight rates on Middle Eastern container routes have already increased, and war surcharges are a key focus. Other routes may follow [14][41][71]. - The Middle East accounts for ~5% of global container volume, with ~3% transiting the Strait of Hormuz [14][41][71]. - The April contract highs could reach 1,450–1,500 points [14][41][72]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The U.S.-Iran military conflict is likely to intensify concerns over potential supply shocks in the near term, providing upward impetus to base metal prices [15][42][73]. - In the medium term, base metals are expected to continue to exhibit a volatile but bullish trend [15][42][73]. Ferrous Metals - The impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict on ferrous metals is primarily sentiment-driven, with minimal direct supply or cost transmission [16][44][74]. - Higher oil prices may raise seaborne iron ore transport costs, but with a lag [16][44][74]. Agriculture - The U.S.-Iran conflict affects the agriculture sector mainly through oil price volatility, with synthetic rubber being the most sensitive [17][45][75]. - Traditional crops may see mild gains from higher fertilizer costs, but historical data shows low sensitivity in agricultural markets [18][45][75]. U.S. Treasuries - A prolonged conflict could erode the safe-haven appeal of U.S. assets [19][46][76]. - Treasury yields are more tied to domestic fundamentals than geopolitics [19][46][76]. Chinese Government Bonds - Risk-off sentiment may support bond markets, but policy uncertainty looms [20][48][78]. - Short-term, bonds may see upward momentum, but pre-meeting policy speculation could lead to range-bound trading. Medium-term, potential RRR/cut cuts may support a bullish bias [20][48][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction in the pig market last week was the significant divergence between the behaviors and expectations of upstream and downstream players under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The oversupply and weak demand led to a weak pig price and a new stage - low [1]. - The near - term trading logic includes dismal post - festival pork demand, the post - festival window period for frozen pork inventory, and whether secondary fatteners will enter the market when the price of standard pigs drops [3]. - The long - term trading logic involves the policy - led expectation of continuous capacity reduction of breeding sows and the early replenishment behavior of farmers driving up the piglet price [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - Upstream: Farmers accelerated concentrated slaughter before the Spring Festival due to bearish post - festival market expectations, resulting in a continuous shift of post - festival supply pressure. Although the average slaughter weight of large - scale farms increased, the overall enthusiasm for slaughter remained high, and the supply of suitable - weight pigs was abundant. Secondary fatteners' enthusiasm for replenishment declined after the festival, and the utilization rate of pens decreased, weakening the short - term support for pig prices [1]. - Downstream: The terminal consumption entered the traditional off - season. Although the slaughtering rate gradually recovered after the festival, it was still at a low level. The daily slaughter volume of sample enterprises decreased significantly compared with that before the festival. Slaughtering enterprises faced great profit pressure, which hindered price increases for procurement and the improvement of the slaughtering rate. They also lacked the willingness for large - scale inventory [1]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - **Base - spread strategy**: The current pig base - spread is neutral, so continue to wait and see [9]. - **Calendar - spread strategy**: Choose to go long on the 05 contract and short on the 07 contract [9]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Suggestions - **Trend judgment**: The pig price will fluctuate at a low level [12]. - **Price range**: The main contract will fluctuate between 11,500 - 12,500 [12]. - **Unilateral strategy**: For the main 05 contract of pigs, choose to buy the call option LH2605 - C - 11500 [12]. - **Risk management strategies for pig enterprises**: Different strategies are provided for inventory management and procurement management, including shorting futures, selling call options, buying put options, etc., with corresponding recommended ratios and entry intervals [13]. 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive information**: On February 26, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs officially released the 2026 pig production capacity regulation plan, aiming to stabilize market expectations. As of February 27, the average loss per self - bred and self - raised pig in the industry increased to 159.65 yuan per head, with a significantly deeper loss than before the festival [14]. - **Negative information**: As of February 10, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens dropped to 19.5% (a decrease of 10.8 percentage points compared with the end of January), and the proportion of secondary fattening in actual sales was only 0.54%. In January 2026, the national inventory of breeding sows increased by 0.65% month - on - month, and the PSY reached 11.35, indicating a loose supply pattern in 2026 [14]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Main Information - Pay attention to the frozen pork inventory and the average slaughter weight of pigs [15] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - The main 05 contract of pigs opened at 11,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and closed at 11,485 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 15 points or - 0.13%. The open interest was 155,000 contracts, an increase of 18,595 contracts compared with last week. The disk was in a volatile stage with little change [15]. 3.3.2 Base - spread and Calendar - spread Structure Analysis - **Calendar - spread structure**: The pig calendar - spread structure is in a Contango structure because of the dismal pig demand this week, the decline in spot prices, and the need for long - term inventory reduction. Whether the peak season can boost demand remains to be seen [17]. - **Base - spread structure**: As secondary fattening pigs were slaughtered one after another, the market supply increased. Although the slaughter volume of the slaughtering end increased, it had little impact compared with the increase in supply. The average slaughter weight of large enterprises first decreased and then increased, and the base - spread of the near - month contract rebounded slightly [19]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain**: As the pig price fell this week, the pig farming profit decreased, and self - bred and self - raised pigs suffered losses. Due to farmers' optimism about the future pig price, the increased pre - festival replenishment willingness pushed up the piglet price, and the gross profit increased month - on - month. In terms of secondary fattening, although the spread between standard and fat pigs strengthened, it was still negative, and early secondary fattening farmers slaughtered and made a profit. In terms of slaughtering, as the spread between white and hair pigs weakened, the profit of slaughtering enterprises decreased [21]. 3.5 This Week's Supply and Demand Situation 3.5.1 Supply - side Situation - **Breeding sows**: The inventory of breeding sows increased month - on - month, and the elimination of breeding sows was less than expected. The PSY level decreased month - on - month, and the average price of culled sows decreased month - on - month [26]. - **Pigs**: In 2025, the slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises remained high, and the inventory was at a three - year high. This week, the average slaughter weight remained stable [29]. - **Piglets**: The piglet price was relatively low compared with the same period last year, showing a seasonal upward trend. This week, the gross profit of piglets recovered and was close to the break - even cost line [31]. - **Secondary fattening**: The spread between standard and fat pigs strengthened this week, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens decreased [34]. - **Feed**: The prices of corn and soybean meal fluctuated, and the feed price remained stable this week [36]. 3.5.2 Demand - side Situation - **Slaughtering**: The current slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises was at a multi - year high. The slaughtering gross profit of pig slaughtering enterprises weakened, the cold - storage inventory gradually increased, and the inventory demand gradually started. Due to farmers' strong willingness to hold back sales and support prices, the procurement willingness of slaughtering enterprises decreased. This week, the slaughtering profit decreased month - on - month, and the average weight after slaughter did not change significantly [39]. - **Terminal**: The terminal consumption remained weak. The fresh - sales rate of slaughtering enterprises was at the lowest level in the past five years, and the spread between white and hair pigs was the worst in the same period [42]. 3.5.3 Import and Export Situation - **Import**: The import volume was at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [48]. - **Export**: The export volume was at the highest level in the same period in the past five years [51]. 3.5.4 Cost and Profit Situation - The pig farming profit decreased, and the pig - to - grain ratio was monitored. The prices of corn and soybean meal fluctuated, and the cost of secondary fattening was analyzed [54][56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent treasury bond futures market is oscillating under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, expectations of loose monetary policy, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks. The core contradiction in the market has shifted from a single long - driving force before the Spring Festival to a complex game between long and short factors [6]. - Before the policies of the Two Sessions are clear, the market may maintain a range - bound pattern. The rapid evolution of the Iran situation over the weekend will have limited further impact on boosting risk - aversion sentiment. The承接 strength of allocation desks and the emergence of incremental policy information will be the key to determining the direction. In the long - term, the bond market trend will depend on the sustainability of economic recovery, the actual strength of fiscal policy, and the future direction of monetary policy. If subsequent economic data (such as inflation) continues to rise and more regions can expand their balance sheets after debt resolution, the possibility of interest rates rising after reaching the bottom will increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - This week, treasury bond futures showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with overall oscillations. After the Spring Festival holiday, the market continued the pre - holiday warm trend, with all treasury bond futures contracts closing higher. However, the upward trend did not last. On February 26, market sentiment reversed, and all contracts of different maturities declined. The 30 - year main contract tumbled 0.53% to 112.09 yuan, and the 10 - year contract fell 0.10% to 108.37 yuan. By the last trading day of the week, the market stabilized. Except for the 30 - year contract, which slightly declined by 0.07%, the other contracts closed slightly higher [4]. - The early - week rise was mainly driven by bank allocation desks. The data shows that the liability side of the banking system is still abundant, and the lackluster "good start" of credit in January led surplus funds to turn to the bond market, forming the underlying logic of the "allocation bull". However, as the yield approached the lower limit of market expectations and the uncertainty brought by the approaching Two Sessions, the profit - taking sentiment of funds and securities firms significantly increased, becoming the main driving force for the mid - week market adjustment [4]. - The introduction of the Shanghai real - estate new policy ("Shanghai Seven - Point Plan") was interpreted by the market as a signal of the government's efforts to stabilize growth, which once triggered concerns in the bond market about economic recovery and rising risk appetite, posing a short - term negative impact. In addition, the performance of the equity market also affected bond market sentiment through the capital diversion effect. At the same time, the central bank's reduction of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales to ease the rapid appreciation of the RMB led to a decline in the RMB exchange rate. This operation was also partially interpreted by the market as being beneficial to alleviating the constraints of capital inflows on monetary policy, having a marginal boost to bond market sentiment [4]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents multiple aspects of liquidity data, including open - market operations (both in terms of volume and price), medium - term lending facility (MLF) (volume and price), various interest rates such as reverse repurchase rates, inter - bank bond repurchase rates, loan market quoted rates (LPR), and deposit reserve ratios. It also shows relevant data on the United States, such as US treasury bond yields and term spreads, through a series of charts [9][11][29][31] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report tracks various indicators of treasury bond futures, including basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implicit interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, and presents the data through charts [41][44][46]