行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 02 月 03 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 特朗普提名前美联储理事沃什担任下一届美联储主席，鉴于沃什在过去十五 年持续批判美联储量化宽松政策推高美国通胀压力并主张货币政策要回归平抑价 格波动的本源，市场担忧沃什上台后美联储货币政策框架将转向以偏紧货币流动 性抑制通货膨胀，叠加美联储暂停降息推高美元汇率和美伊谈判削弱地缘政治风 险，隔夜贵金属板块全线大幅调整，2 月 1 日贵金属板块继续惯性下滑，伦敦黄 金最低跌至 4402 美元/盎司而伦敦白银最大跌幅达到 41.4%。我们判断贵金属中 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 3 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 | | | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货2月2日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant fluctuations in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, leading to adjustments in investment strategies by various banks [3][21][25] - The recent announcement by the National Market Supervision Administration and other departments regarding the "Low Altitude Economy Standard System Construction Guide (2025 Edition)" indicates a focus on developing a comprehensive ecosystem for low-altitude economy, emphasizing standardization and integration across various sectors [11][29] - The approval of the "Modern Capital Urban Circle Spatial Collaborative Planning (2023-2035)" by the central government highlights the strategic importance of optimizing the capital's functions and promoting high-quality regional development [5][10][24][28] Group 2 - The announcement from Guotou Ruijin Fund regarding a 31.5% drop in the net value of its silver fund indicates a significant market reaction to the recent volatility in precious metals [2][20] - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a widespread decline, with multiple contracts closing at their daily limit down, reflecting the impact of international factors on local markets [16][35] - The ongoing adjustments in the gold and silver markets, including a sharp drop in prices, suggest a potential shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics, with implications for future investment strategies [18][27][36]

周一夜盘时段，有色金属板块延续跌势。截至夜盘收盘，国际铜期货主力合约收跌1.11%，沪铜期货主力合约收跌1.01%，沪铝期货主力合约收跌2.12%， 沪锌期货主力合约收跌1.07%，沪铅期货主力合约收跌0.77%，沪镍期货主力合约收跌2.83%，沪锡期货主力合约收跌12.38%。 中信建投期货工业品首席研究员江露表示，"鹰派"候选人凯文·沃什被提名担任美联储新一任主席，使美联储货币政策收紧的预期加强，美元与美债收益 率飙升，以美元计价的有色金属惨遭空头打压。同时，伴随着国内春节假期临近，资金避险情绪大幅升温，诸多利空因素共振引发有色板块短期大幅回 调。 周一，在金银价格持续暴跌的带动下，有色金属板块也遭遇"抛售潮"。内盘方面，截至当日收盘，沪铜、沪铝、沪锡、沪镍、铝合金和国际铜期货主力合 约跌停，其余品种也不同幅度下挫。 | 沪镍 2603 | 129650 -11.00% -16030 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 ni2603 | | | | | 沪锡2603 | 392650 -11.00% -48530 | | | | 期货 sn2603 | | | | | ...

早上好，先来关注下金银。 2日夜盘，内盘白银期货延续午盘的暴跌态势。沪银期货10个合约开盘后不久全部跌停。 | 沪银 2602 | 21292 | -20.00% | | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 ag2602 | | | | 沪银 2603 | 21256 | -20.00% | | 期货 ag2603 | | | | 沪银 2604 | 20848 | - 19.04% | | 期货 ag2604 | | | | 沪银 2605 | 20535 | - 19.00% | | 期货 ag2605 | | | | 沪银 2606 | 20232 | - 19.00% | | 期货 ag2606 | | | | 沪银 2607 | 19931 | - 19.00% | | 期货 ag2607 | | | | 沪银 2608 | 19908 | - 19.00% | | 期货 ag2608 | | | | 沪银 2609 | 19845 | - 19.00% | | 期货 ag2609 | | | | 沪银 2610 | 19678 | -19.00% | | 期货 ag2610 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant sell-off, driven by falling gold and silver prices, with major futures contracts hitting their daily limits down [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close on Monday, major contracts for copper, aluminum, tin, nickel, and aluminum alloy all hit their daily limit down, with other varieties also experiencing declines [1] - The trading volume in the non-ferrous metal sector reached a recent high last Friday but saw a decline on Monday, although it remained elevated compared to previous days [2] Group 2: Price Movements - During the night trading session, international copper futures fell by 1.11%, while domestic copper futures dropped by 1.01%. Other metals like aluminum and nickel also saw declines of 2.12% and 2.83%, respectively [3] - Year-to-date, absolute inventories of copper, aluminum, and nickel are significantly higher than in previous years, indicating weak price support from supply-demand dynamics [4] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair has strengthened expectations for tighter monetary policy, leading to a stronger dollar and increased pressure on non-ferrous metals [3] - The market is currently observing marginal changes in Federal Reserve policy, with high volatility in related commodities likely to continue [3][5] Group 4: Inventory and Demand - Global copper inventories exceed 1.3 million tons, indicating upward pressure on prices, while domestic aluminum inventories have reached 1 million tons, reflecting weaker supply-demand dynamics compared to previous years [4][5] - Seasonal demand suppression is expected around the Chinese New Year, which may lead to price pressure due to seasonal accumulation [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Post-Chinese New Year, if downstream production resumes faster than expected and domestic growth policies take effect, the non-ferrous metal sector may stabilize and rebound by early March [5] - The precious metals sector is anticipated to wait for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve's March meeting before determining its trajectory [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in international precious metals has led to a rare significant drop in the domestic commodity market, with multiple futures contracts hitting their daily limit down, indicating a widespread panic in the market [1][8]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On February 2, the domestic futures market opened significantly lower, with panic spreading across various sectors from precious metals to non-ferrous metals and energy chemicals, resulting in 13 futures contracts, including silver, platinum, palladium, copper, aluminum, nickel, and lithium carbonate, hitting their daily limit down [1][2][8]. - The international precious metals market experienced a severe downturn, with gold prices dropping by as much as 12% in a single day, marking the largest daily decline in nearly 40 years, while silver saw a historic drop of 36%, the largest since 1983 [2][9]. Group 2: Causes of Decline - Analysts suggest that the recent commodity crash is not solely due to fundamental factors but is also a result of excessive prior price increases, concentrated leverage, and extremely fragile trading structures, which were exacerbated by panic selling triggered by sudden news [1][3][10]. - The rapid price increase in January saw gold prices rise from approximately $4,300 to $5,600, a 28% increase, while silver surged from around $70 to over $120, a 70% increase, leading to a highly speculative market environment [10][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The volatility in precious metals has been amplified by high leverage and derivative instruments, which have played a role in both the upward and downward movements of prices [12][15]. - The market's extreme reaction is attributed to a crowded long position, where a sudden negative news event triggered a feedback loop of selling, leading to a cascading effect of price declines [10][12]. Group 4: Regulatory Response - In response to the extreme market conditions, exchanges have implemented risk control measures, including increasing margin requirements and adjusting trading limits for silver and other precious metals [14][15]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced dynamic adjustments to margin levels and trading limits for silver contracts, while the CME raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures [14]. Group 5: Implications for Investors - The recent volatility serves as a warning for capital markets, highlighting the risks associated with excessive speculation and leverage in asset pricing [15][16]. - Industry experts emphasize the need for investors to focus on risk management and liquidity constraints in the face of heightened volatility, as the market seeks to find a new equilibrium after the dramatic price swings [15][16].

Market Overview - The silver futures market experienced a significant drop, with the main contract falling 20% shortly after opening on February 2, following a previous day of trading that also saw major declines in other commodities like tin, oil, and nickel [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) issued a notice urging market participants to enhance risk management and maintain a rational approach to trading amid increased market volatility [1] Price Movements - Gold prices peaked at a historical high of $5,598.75 per ounce on January 29, but fell to around $4,600 by February 2 [2] - Silver prices also saw a drastic decline, dropping from a high of $121.647 per ounce on January 29 to approximately $80 by February 2 [2] - In the domestic futures market, the main gold contract fell from a high of 1,258.72 yuan per gram to about 1,050 yuan by February 2, while the main silver contract dropped from 32,382 yuan per kilogram to around 20,600 yuan [2] Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the extreme volatility in precious metals to external macroeconomic factors and liquidity disturbances rather than domestic fundamentals [1] - The recent market downturn is seen as a "chain reaction" triggered by the collapse of the U.S. financial market, exacerbated by the nomination of a hawkish figure for the Federal Reserve chair position [1] - The SHFE has proactively implemented measures to mitigate external shocks, including increasing margin requirements and expanding price fluctuation limits [2] Regulatory Actions - The SHFE has taken regulatory measures against certain clients for exceeding trading limits, which included restricting their ability to open new positions [4] - The exchange has also issued penalties for manipulative trading practices, including suspensions of trading for involved parties [4]

COMEX白银日K线图 "市场普遍预测贵金属价格周一会继续下跌，是因为在多头'踩踏'下，按在跌停板上平不掉的仓单，只 能在周一继续挂单平仓。"上述交易员进一步解释称。 然而，2月2日市场陷入"单边市"后，流动性急剧萎缩，这部分被动平仓盘也难以成交。 国泰君安期货市场分析师张驰宁称，2月2日，沪银跌停后成交量持续萎缩，仅在早盘开盘阶段出现千手 级别的成交，随后便迅速衰减，至当日午后，小时成交量已缩至仅一两百手，这反映出市场抛压沉重， 而投机性买盘几乎消失。 ◎记者 张骄 全球贵金属市场刚刚经历了"黑色星期五"，周一黄金、白银交易再掀巨浪。 2月2日，市场延续抛售行情，上演"过山车"走势。伦敦现货白银盘中一度翻红，随后急转直下，日内最 大跌幅超15%，抹平近一个月涨幅，随后跌幅收窄；伦敦现货黄金一度失守4500美元/盎司，日内最大 跌幅超10%，随后企稳回升，截至记者发稿时，收复4800美元/盎司关口。 有些声音将此次贵金属价格的"决堤"，归咎于美联储主席提名人选——偏鹰派的凯文·沃什。中信建投 期货贵金属首席分析师王彦青接受上海证券报记者采访时表示，提名事件更多是引发了短期情绪扰动， 而非实质性的影响。 此前， ...

本报讯（记者鲍仁）2月2日，上期所、广期所分别发布公告，对违规交易行为作出处理。 另外，上海久斯资产管理有限公司、上海久斯企业发展有限公司、海南韵澜实业有限公司3名客户存在 实际控制关系，2025年11月18日至12月9日连续15个交易日合并持仓超过PS2512合约持仓限额，违反 《广州期货交易所违规违约处理办法》第二十六条第一项"利用分仓等不正当手段，规避交易所持仓限 制"的规定。相关客户违规持仓行为盈利4156269元。广期所决定给予上海久斯资产管理有限公司、上海 久斯企业发展有限公司、海南韵澜实业有限公司没收违规所得4156269元、公开谴责、暂停开仓交易12 个月的纪律处分，并将上述当事人的纪律处分结果记入证券期货市场诚信档案。 （文章来源：期货日报网） 另外，2025年8月22日至2025年9月5日，刘烈军操纵自己账户与吴光宇账户在氧化铝、天然橡胶期权合 约上存在实施事先约定的相互交易、转移资金，扰乱市场秩序的行为。上述行为已构成《上海期货交易 所违规处理办法》第三十二条第一款第三项规定的违规行为，依据该办法第三十二条，上期所给予刘烈 军通报批评处分，并责令改正，给予刘烈军自收到违规处理决定书次日起 ...