Group 1 - As of April 30, 2025, corn futures closed at 2377 CNY/ton, marking a weekly increase of 1.76% with a trading volume increase of 112,988 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - For the week ending April 24, 2024, U.S. corn export net sales were 1.014 million tons, down from 1.153 million tons the previous week, while corn shipments were 1.598 million tons, down from 1.78 million tons [2] - On April 30, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a corn warehouse receipt of 168,663 contracts, an increase of 35,188 contracts from the previous trading day [3] Group 2 - Market sentiment for corn prices is strong, with expectations of high volatility; however, caution is advised due to potential pressure from upcoming wheat harvests [4] - Supply dynamics indicate that grain reserves in Northeast China are nearing depletion, leading to a bullish outlook among traders, while demand from livestock and feed sectors is increasing due to improved profitability [5] - The stability of wheat prices and its reduced price gap with corn may impact corn demand negatively, highlighting the need to monitor U.S.-China tariff policy changes [5]

Core Points - The Chicago futures market saw a decline in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on May 5, with corn down 3.14%, wheat down 2.16%, and soybeans down 1.18% [1] - Favorable weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest are expected to facilitate rapid spring planting, contributing to the downward pressure on prices [1][2] - The USDA reported significant increases in cumulative export inspection volumes for corn (29%), soybeans (11%), and wheat (14%) compared to the previous year [1] Group 1 - On May 5, the most active July corn contract closed at $4.54 per bushel, down 14.75 cents; July wheat at $5.31 per bushel, down 11.75 cents; and July soybeans at $10.46 per bushel, down 12.5 cents [1] - The USDA's export inspection report indicated that for the week ending May 1, corn export inspections totaled 63.317 million bushels, wheat 11.4 million bushels, and soybeans 11.9 million bushels [1] - IKAR raised its forecast for Russia's wheat production in 2025 from 82.5 million tons to 83.8 million tons [1]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index declined by 2.07%, closing at 30.9673 points, indicating a continuous downward trend throughout the day [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 3.14%, settling at $4.5425 per bushel, reflecting a significant drop in grain prices [1]

周度报告-玉米&玉米淀粉 期现共振上涨 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 玉米&玉米淀粉：看涨 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 5 | 日 | [Table_Analyser] | ★[Ta玉ble米_Summary] 一周复盘：玉米、小麦现货明显上涨，玉米 07 合约冲破 2350 压力 位。"若无规模化替代，7 月现实缺口将暴露"的预期或正逐步兑现， 随着 7 月节点的临近，支撑我们这一观点的现象也逐步出现。深加 工企业玉米虽然因亏损而消耗量缓慢下滑，但原料库存持续大幅下 降；中储粮虽然转向净轮出状态，但拍卖成交率和溢价双高，均表 明商业库存或逐步趋紧。 下周观点： 农 产 品 中期看，现实供需的转强预计将继续驱动价格上涨，07 合约全年的 高点有望达到 2450 元/吨左右，届时基差、月差也有望形成 back 结 构，主要是考虑到以下几点原因：1）生猪存栏与均重双高，预计能 量总需求同比回升幅度较好，淀粉恢复出口与副产品受豆粕拉动， 预计将延 ...

Research View - The research view on various agricultural products is mostly "sideways." Corn is in a sideways state, with long positions shifting to the July and September contracts. The spot market continues to show a strong performance driven by the futures. Northeast corn prices are rising, with a general increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and traders' enthusiasm for shipping is average. In North China, corn prices are also running strongly. Technically, the July contract has broken through the previous high [1]. - Soybean meal is also in a sideways state. CBOT soybeans closed lower on Tuesday due to trade - related tensions and farmers' eagerness to plant soybeans. In the domestic market, the futures have raised the margin, and the market is mainly sideways. The spot supply of soybean meal is still tight, but it is expected to improve in May [1]. - Fats and oils are in a sideways state. BMD palm oil fell on Tuesday due to the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit and the weakness of competing vegetable oils. Domestically, palm oil led the decline with reduced positions, and the oils market was weakly sideways. The increase in domestic ship purchases has pressured the spot and futures prices [1]. - Eggs are in a sideways state. On Tuesday, egg futures fluctuated. The spot price has been weak recently, but the May Day holiday has a certain boosting effect on terminal demand. After the plum - rain season, the egg price is likely to decline [1]. - Pigs are in a sideways state. On Tuesday, the September contract of live pigs fluctuated downward. Although the May Day holiday has increased the slaughtering enterprises' stocking demand, the impact on the pig price is limited. The market generally believes that the second - fattened pigs will be slaughtered more actively around May [2]. Market Information - The USDA announced that private exporters reported the sale of 110,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations and 120,000 tons of corn to Spain, all for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year [3]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will implement a hog production capacity regulation plan, aiming to reduce the proportion of grain in the feed consumed by the national aquaculture industry to about 60% and the proportion of soybean meal to about 10% by 2030 [3]. - As of the end of the 17th week of 2025, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 97,000 tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decline of 37.00%. The coastal inventory was 84,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decline of 31.90% [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [6][7][9][13]. Contract Basis - The report shows the basis of various agricultural products, such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [15][19][21][25]. Research Team Members - The agricultural product research team members include Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, an analyst of beans at Everbright Futures; and Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29]

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures prices in Malaysia have declined for three consecutive days, influenced by Indonesia's sudden reduction of export taxes, leading to a "price war" in the palm oil market [1] Group 1 - Malaysian palm oil prices are under pressure due to competitive pricing strategies initiated by Indonesia [1] - The recent changes in export tax by Indonesia may significantly impact the pricing dynamics of palm oil in the region [1] - There is speculation on whether Malaysian palm oil prices will fall below a certain support level amidst these developments [1]

2025年04月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地压力仍有释放空间 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：单边偏弱，品种间偏强运行 | 2 | | 豆粕：偏弱震荡，规避假期风险 | 4 | | 豆一：反弹震荡，规避假期风险 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：需求仍然不乐观 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货弱势震荡 | 9 | | 生猪：阶段性去库开启，等待节后印证 | 10 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 30 日 棕榈油：产地压力仍有释放空间 豆油：单边偏弱，品种间偏强运行 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,120 7,780 | -0.66% ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Grain Index experienced a decline of 1.64%, closing at 31.3535 points, following a significant drop after reaching a daily high of 31.9464 points [1] Group 1: Commodity Futures - CBOT corn futures fell by 2.59%, settling at $4.7075 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures decreased by 1.41%, closing at $5.2450 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures dropped by 0.89%, ending at $10.5150 per bushel, while soybean meal futures rose by 0.81% and soybean oil futures fell by 2.36% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (Bean 1): Neutral (indicated by 'ななな') [1] - Soybean Meal: Bullish (indicated by '☆☆☆') [1] - Soybean Oil: Bullish (indicated by '☆☆☆') [1] - Palm Oil: Neutral (indicated by 'ななな') [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Neutral (indicated by 'ななな') [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Bullish (indicated by '☆☆☆') [1] - Corn: Bullish (indicated by '☆☆☆') [1] - Live Pigs: Bearish (indicated by '★☆☆') [1] - Eggs: Bearish (indicated by '★☆★') [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply pattern of imported soybeans will shift from tight to loose in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy and supply - demand changes [2][3][4] - The price of soybean meal futures will be relatively strong in the short - term, but its upward momentum will weaken when the procurement of Brazilian soybeans accelerates and North American weather risks decrease [3] - The price of edible oils will fluctuate repeatedly due to factors such as low procurement progress of third - quarter soybean shipments in China and the palm oil production cycle [4] - The downward space of rapeseed meal is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US - Canada trade policies [6] - Corn futures may oscillate downward after the release of grain sources, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [7] - The supply of live pigs will increase in the future, and attention should be paid to the decline space of spot prices [8] - Egg prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term due to factors such as seasonal weakness and increasing production capacity [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The price of domestic soybean futures main contract is falling, and there is a short - term supply pattern shift of imported soybeans from tight to loose. Pay attention to policy and supply - demand changes [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Soybean meal is reducing positions and prices are falling. The supply pattern will shift from tight to loose after May Day. The futures price of soybean meal will be relatively strong in the short - term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Before the May Day holiday, domestic soybean and cotton oil are reducing positions and prices are falling. The supply pattern of imported soybeans will change, and the price of edible oils will fluctuate repeatedly [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - After the May Day holiday, the soybean shortage situation will ease. The downward space of rapeseed meal is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate. Pay attention to Sino - US - Canada trade policies [6] Corn - The supply of corn at Shandong deep - processing enterprises is low, and the port inventory pressure has decreased. Corn futures may oscillate downward after the release of grain sources, and it is advisable to wait and see [7] Live Pigs - The price of live pig futures has fallen significantly. The supply of live pigs will increase in the future, and attention should be paid to the decline space of spot prices [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is falling steadily, and the futures price is adjusting. Egg prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term due to seasonal and production - capacity factors [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. The overall situation is that the oil and meal sectors are declining, the pig price is dropping, the corn price is expected to be strong, and different products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - The main contract 2509 continues to decline. The supply - demand in the palm oil producing areas is increasing, but the supply - side pressure is greater. High - frequency data shows that the production in Malaysia from April 1 - 20 increased by 9% - 20%, and the export from April 1 - 25 increased by 3% - 15%. The market expects the MPOB to raise the inventory in May. The lack of progress in Indonesia's B40 policy weakens consumer confidence. The domestic import profit is repaired, and the increase in supply expectations and weak demand pressure the price [1][2]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 breaks through the downside, the MACD red column shrinks, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 8100, and the resistance is 8170 [3]. (2) Soybean Oil - The main contract 2509 continues to decline. The concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in China increases the supply expectation. The total import volume in the second quarter may reach 4150 tons, doubling that of the first quarter. It is expected that the oil mill's operating rate will continue to rise after May Day, and the tight supply situation will be alleviated [4]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 falls below most moving averages, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 7756, and the resistance is 7814 [4]. (3) Soybean Meal - The main contract 2509 continues to decline. The downstream market's acceptance of high - priced soybean meal decreases, the spot price drops, and the trading volume plummets. With the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, the oil mill's operating rate will increase, and the supply is expected to improve [6]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 has three consecutive declines, the MACD green column expands significantly, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 2928, and the resistance is 2990 [6]. (4) Corn - The main contract 2507 rises and then falls. After continuous price increases, there is profit - taking by long - positions. However, the remaining grain in the domestic main production areas is low, the drought in the wheat - producing areas raises the wheat price, reducing its substitution advantage for corn. The significant decrease in corn imports also supports the price [8]. - Technically, the main contract 2507 is still above the moving averages, the MACD red column expands, and the strategy is to go long at low positions. The support is 2350, and the resistance is 2370 [8]. (5) Live Pigs - The main contract 2509 continues to decline significantly. The breeding side accelerates the slaughter rhythm due to the inverted standard - fat price difference, increasing the supply. The downstream demand lacks increment, and the difficulty of selling white - striped pigs in the wholesale market pressures the price [11]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 breaks through the downside, the MACD green column expands, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 13800, and the resistance is 14000 [11]. (6) Sugar - The main contract 2509 gaps down. The increase in sugar production in Thailand and Brazil pressures the international ICE raw sugar price. The rainfall in Guangxi, China, eases the drought, and the opening of the additional import profit window may increase the import pressure [12][13][15]. - The strategy is to close long positions. The support is 5887, and the resistance is 5997 [15]. (7) Eggs - The main contract 2506 has a narrow - range oscillation, and the main trend is still weak. The May Day stocking is basically over, the market trading slows down, and the inventory increases. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level and will continue to grow [16]. - Technically, the main contract 2506 is still pressured by the short - term moving averages, the MACD shows a dead - cross sign, and the strategy is to go short at high positions. The support is 2960, and the resistance is 2998 [16]. (8) Cotton - The main contract 2509 breaks through the downside. The "Golden March and Silver April" season in the domestic textile industry is ending, the new orders are low, the sales slow down, and the inventory increases. The new cotton sowing progresses rapidly, and the climate in Xinjiang is favorable, with a sowing progress of 78.3% [18]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 breaks through the moving averages, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 12700, and the resistance is 12900 [18]. (9) Apples - The main contract 2510 rebounds after a decline and remains at a high level. The May Day stocking is ending, the market in the production area is stable, the inventory is low (309.98 million tons as of April 24), and the sales in the sales area are stable [20]. - The strategy is to hold long positions. The support is 7886, and the resistance is 8070 [20]. (10) Soybeans (Domestic) - The main contract 2507 declines continuously. The decline of imported soybean prices drags down domestic soybeans, and the demand in the sales area is weak. The shift of the imported soybean supply to a loose situation weakens the long - position sentiment [23]. - Technically, the main contract 2507 approaches the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average and go short if it is broken. The support is 4150, and the resistance is 4208 [23].