1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. The overall situation is that the oil and meal sectors are declining, the pig price is dropping, the corn price is expected to be strong, and different products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - The main contract 2509 continues to decline. The supply - demand in the palm oil producing areas is increasing, but the supply - side pressure is greater. High - frequency data shows that the production in Malaysia from April 1 - 20 increased by 9% - 20%, and the export from April 1 - 25 increased by 3% - 15%. The market expects the MPOB to raise the inventory in May. The lack of progress in Indonesia's B40 policy weakens consumer confidence. The domestic import profit is repaired, and the increase in supply expectations and weak demand pressure the price [1][2]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 breaks through the downside, the MACD red column shrinks, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 8100, and the resistance is 8170 [3]. (2) Soybean Oil - The main contract 2509 continues to decline. The concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in China increases the supply expectation. The total import volume in the second quarter may reach 4150 tons, doubling that of the first quarter. It is expected that the oil mill's operating rate will continue to rise after May Day, and the tight supply situation will be alleviated [4]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 falls below most moving averages, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 7756, and the resistance is 7814 [4]. (3) Soybean Meal - The main contract 2509 continues to decline. The downstream market's acceptance of high - priced soybean meal decreases, the spot price drops, and the trading volume plummets. With the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, the oil mill's operating rate will increase, and the supply is expected to improve [6]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 has three consecutive declines, the MACD green column expands significantly, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 2928, and the resistance is 2990 [6]. (4) Corn - The main contract 2507 rises and then falls. After continuous price increases, there is profit - taking by long - positions. However, the remaining grain in the domestic main production areas is low, the drought in the wheat - producing areas raises the wheat price, reducing its substitution advantage for corn. The significant decrease in corn imports also supports the price [8]. - Technically, the main contract 2507 is still above the moving averages, the MACD red column expands, and the strategy is to go long at low positions. The support is 2350, and the resistance is 2370 [8]. (5) Live Pigs - The main contract 2509 continues to decline significantly. The breeding side accelerates the slaughter rhythm due to the inverted standard - fat price difference, increasing the supply. The downstream demand lacks increment, and the difficulty of selling white - striped pigs in the wholesale market pressures the price [11]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 breaks through the downside, the MACD green column expands, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 13800, and the resistance is 14000 [11]. (6) Sugar - The main contract 2509 gaps down. The increase in sugar production in Thailand and Brazil pressures the international ICE raw sugar price. The rainfall in Guangxi, China, eases the drought, and the opening of the additional import profit window may increase the import pressure [12][13][15]. - The strategy is to close long positions. The support is 5887, and the resistance is 5997 [15]. (7) Eggs - The main contract 2506 has a narrow - range oscillation, and the main trend is still weak. The May Day stocking is basically over, the market trading slows down, and the inventory increases. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level and will continue to grow [16]. - Technically, the main contract 2506 is still pressured by the short - term moving averages, the MACD shows a dead - cross sign, and the strategy is to go short at high positions. The support is 2960, and the resistance is 2998 [16]. (8) Cotton - The main contract 2509 breaks through the downside. The "Golden March and Silver April" season in the domestic textile industry is ending, the new orders are low, the sales slow down, and the inventory increases. The new cotton sowing progresses rapidly, and the climate in Xinjiang is favorable, with a sowing progress of 78.3% [18]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 breaks through the moving averages, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 12700, and the resistance is 12900 [18]. (9) Apples - The main contract 2510 rebounds after a decline and remains at a high level. The May Day stocking is ending, the market in the production area is stable, the inventory is low (309.98 million tons as of April 24), and the sales in the sales area are stable [20]. - The strategy is to hold long positions. The support is 7886, and the resistance is 8070 [20]. (10) Soybeans (Domestic) - The main contract 2507 declines continuously. The decline of imported soybean prices drags down domestic soybeans, and the demand in the sales area is weak. The shift of the imported soybean supply to a loose situation weakens the long - position sentiment [23]. - Technically, the main contract 2507 approaches the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average and go short if it is broken. The support is 4150, and the resistance is 4208 [23].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | -6 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 吨) 玉米月间价差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 1 玉米淀粉月间价差(7-9):(日,元/吨) 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) -8379 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 2355 86 1464727 | 2721 -77 233316 | 0 2 -115 | | 期货市场 | 6386 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, | | | | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -183547 | -7516 | 6790 | | | 手) 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) 21246 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 133475 | 8450 | 0 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨) 2 | 422 | | | | 外盘市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):CBOT玉米(日,美 -1.25 CBOT:玉米:总持 ...

国投安信期货：棉花操作上暂时观望 昨天美棉大幅下跌，美棉最新的周度签约数据表现一般，截至2025年4月27日当周，美国棉花种植率为 15%,前一周为11%,去年同期为14%,五年均值为14%。国产棉现货交投平淡，现货基差较为坚挺，纯棉 纱纺企散单出货，库存略升，价格本周稳中偏弱。国内内销数据表现尚可，外需面临的挑战较大，关税 实质影响仍未完全落地。中美仍未进行实质性的谈判，特朗普观点较为反复，继续关注后续情况，操作 上暂时观望。 机构 核心观点 光大期货 短期郑棉仍以区间震荡对待 国投安信期货 棉花操作上暂时观望 南华期货（603093） 棉价或维持偏弱小幅震荡 光大期货：短期郑棉仍以区间震荡对待 国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍有扰动，特朗普消息不断且变向较快，美元指数重心先升后降，美棉价 格承压下行，持续关注宏观层面变化。国内市场方面，郑棉期价整体仍维持震荡走势。展望未来，我们 认为短期郑棉下方有一定支撑，原因有以下几点：一是中美关税税率较此前再度恶化空间不大，二是新 棉种植期，国内棉花种植面积较此前预估或小幅下降，未来天气若有扰动则是利多，三是对未来国内宏 观政策的预期。综上，我们认为短期郑棉底部有一定支撑 ...

今日美豆价格下滑，因美国种植快速推进，市场预期大豆面积砍至5年新低VS玉米扩种至12年峰值，美 国农民种植结构调整是福是祸？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term [1]. - The soybean meal may oscillate in the short - term [1]. - The corn futures price will fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and investors are advised to operate cautiously as the May Day holiday approaches [1]. - The copper price has rebounded to a key price zone, and investors should pay attention to risk avoidance due to the upcoming May Day holiday [2]. - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [3][4]. - After the macro - negative factors are digested, a bullish approach can be considered for the far - month contracts at low levels after May [5]. - The coking coal and coke may rebound weakly at low levels with limited upside space [6][7]. - The iron ore 2505 will mainly decline with oscillations in the short - term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [8]. - The WTI crude oil may have a downward price center in the medium - to - long - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 65 US dollars per barrel for the WTI main contract [9]. - Attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10]. - The PVC futures price may oscillate at a low level due to the weak demand [11]. - The soda ash futures may have a wide - range oscillation in the short - term [12]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,140 yuan per ton, down 120 yuan per ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: It is in the period of US soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and exporting. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the inventory may be stable [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3,450 yuan/ton (- 200), 3,580 yuan/ton (- 170), 3,650 yuan/ton (- 50), and 3,690 yuan/ton (- 10) respectively [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US trade tariff issue remains unresolved. US soybean sowing progress exceeds expectations, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak. Brazilian soybeans are arriving in China, and the supply is expected to be loose. The inventory has dropped to a low point due to the mismatch between pre - May Day stocking and oil mill operations [1]. Corn - **Spot Market**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in Northeast China, North China, and Huanghuai regions are 2,128 yuan/ton, 2,333 yuan/ton respectively. The purchase prices at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,200 - 2,230 yuan/ton and 2,200 - 2,220 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The impact of the US tariff event on the outer market is weakening. The USDA report has lowered the US corn production and ending inventory, and the weakening US dollar index supports the upward trend of US corn. In China, the supply pressure has eased, but the downstream demand is weak, which restricts the rise of corn futures prices [1]. Copper - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 77,440 - 77,690 yuan, down 580 yuan, with a premium of 150 - 210 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 42.52, down 7.81 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The global market is still affected by "irrational" tariffs, and the Fed's actions are uncertain. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material impact is intensifying, and the copper price is at a stage of resonance [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Market**: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 69,400 (- 200) yuan/ton and 67,900 (- 200) yuan/ton respectively, with a price difference of 1,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost of lithium spodumene concentrate is declining. The supply is increasing but at a slower pace, and the low - cost lithium salt from salt lakes may enter the market. The demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive the price up. The inventory has been accumulating [3]. Steel - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,160 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of steel are improving, and the contango structure is weakening. The cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, the demand from steel mills is weak, the inventory of independent coking enterprises is low, and the profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [6][7]. Iron Ore - **Spot Market**: The Platts iron ore index is 99.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 763 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 762 yuan [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is mixed, with Australian shipments decreasing and Brazilian shipments increasing. The port inventory has decreased, and the demand from domestic steel mills has increased but the procurement is still cautious. Overseas demand is differentiated, and the US tariff policy restricts the upward space [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The market sentiment has improved, and the US inventory has decreased. OPEC+ has announced compensation production cuts, but the impact of the US "reciprocal tariff" still exists. OPEC has lowered the global demand growth forecast, and the second - quarter demand may be affected by the trade war [9]. Rubber - **Market Analysis**: The US "reciprocal tariff" has affected China's tire and automobile exports. The domestic and Southeast Asian rubber supply is abundant, and the demand may be suppressed by the US tariff on automobiles [10]. PVC - **Spot Market**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,780 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The PVC production enterprise operating rate has increased. The demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and the social inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level [11]. Soda Ash - **Spot Market**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,418.44 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating rate of soda ash production is relatively stable, the output has little fluctuation, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is average. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamental driving force is still weak [12].

Report Investment Ratings - Sugar: Sideways [1] - Cotton: Sideways [1] Core Views - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major producing areas except Yunnan have started to finish crushing, and a restorative increase in sugar production is a foregone conclusion. Holiday consumption during May Day has boosted sugar demand and supported stable sugar prices. Internationally, sugar production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is gradually ramping up, but due to weather factors, sugar production is uncertain, and international sugar prices are expected to weaken sideways in the short term. Attention should be paid to the planting and growth of domestic sugarcane and sugar beets, as well as the progress of sugar production in Brazil [1]. - Due to the US tariff hikes on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed down, with consumption decreasing by 200,000 tons to 7.6 million tons and imports also decreasing by 200,000 tons to 1.5 million tons. Recently, high temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang have been generally favorable for cotton sowing [1]. Data Summary Price Data - **External Market Quotes**: On April 27 - 28, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from $18.16 to $17.83, a decline of 1.82%; the price of US cotton decreased from $68.7 to $67.56, a decline of 1.66% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 27 - 28, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning increased from 6,210 to 6,220, a rise of 0.16%; the price of sugar in Kunming increased from 6,000 to 6,070, a rise of 1.17%; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3,281 to 3,280, a decline of 0.07%; the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 14,000 [3]. - **Price Spreads**: From April 27 - 28, 2025, SR01 - 05 spread decreased from -343 to -362, a change of 5.54%; SR05 - 09 spread increased from 201 to 212, a change of 5.47%; SR09 - 01 spread increased from 142 to 150, a change of 5.63%; CF01 - 05 spread decreased from 500 to 480, a decline of 4.00%; CF05 - 09 spread decreased from -265 to -275, a change of 3.77%; CF09 - 01 spread increased from -235 to -205, a decline of 12.77% [3]. - **Basis**: From April 27 - 28, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 increased from 168 to 243, a rise of 44.64%; the basis of sugar 05 increased from -175 to -119, a decline of 32.00%; the basis of sugar 09 increased from 26 to 93, a rise of 257.69%; the basis of cotton 01 increased from 1,009 to 1,089, a rise of 7.93%; the basis of cotton 05 increased from 1,509 to 1,569, a rise of 3.98%; the basis of cotton 09 increased from 1,244 to 1,294, a rise of 4.02% [3]. - **Import Prices**: On April 27 - 28, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 80.55 [3]. - **Profit Margins**: On April 27 - 28, 2025, the import profit of sugar remained unchanged at 1,295 [3]. Option Data - The implied volatility of SR509C6000 is 0.1097, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 8.88; the implied volatility of SR509P6000 is 0.1084 [3]. - The implied volatility of CF509C13000 is 0.1271, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 11.77; the implied volatility of CF509P13000 is 0.1281 [3]. Warehouse Receipt Data - On April 27 - 28, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 28,756; the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 10,555 to 10,479, a decline of 0.72% [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **豆粕**: Short - term decline. The impact of Sino - US trade tariff increase on soybean meal is limited. South American soybean production is set, and US soybean planting has started smoothly. China will import over 10 million tons of soybeans per month from April to June. With ample rainfall expected for US soybeans in the next 15 days and the concentrated import supply season starting in April, the soybean meal market is bearish in the short - term [1][2]. - **菜粕**: Short - term rebound. Low inventory of rapeseed meal at oil mills supports the spot price. The increasing spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal reduces the substitution of rapeseed meal. However, the sharp rise in soybean meal prices drives up rapeseed meal prices. Also, the continuous increase in Canadian rapeseed prices supports domestic rapeseed meal prices. But beware of the supply pressure from the new rapeseed harvest [1][7]. - **棕榈 oil**: Short - term rebound. In April, the supply and demand of international palm oil both increased, with a possible downward trend in price. Domestic palm oil has low inventory and imports, with no supply - side pressure for now. Pay attention to international price guidance, and the near - month contracts may be strongly supported [1][9]. - **棉花**: Limited rebound. US cotton sowing is ongoing with improving soil moisture, which is bearish for the market. The tariff war is in a buffer stage, and demand is expected to pick up, but the overall market recession expectation remains. In China, the new cotton sowing is over half - done, and the demand is weak. After the release of short - term negative factors, the price will fluctuate within a range [1][11]. - **红枣**: Weak operation. Currently, there are few disturbances in the planting area, and the supply in the downstream market is sufficient. After the traditional consumption off - season, there are no bright spots, and fresh fruits are crowding out the market. The supply - strong and demand - weak situation persists [1][15]. - **生猪**: Low - level oscillation. The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, and the oversupply pressure will dominate the market in the second half of 2025. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening is weakening, and the consumer demand lacks growth momentum. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [1][18]. Summary by Variety 豆粕 - **International**: The impact of Sino - US trade tariff increase is limited. South American soybean production is determined, and US soybean planting has started with smooth progress and favorable weather prospects [2]. - **Domestic**: From April to June, the monthly import is over 10 million tons. As of April 18, domestic port and oil - mill soybeans have been accumulating for three weeks, while soybean meal inventory is decreasing, and the spot supply is tight. Due to low inventory and tight supply, near - month contracts are strong, but the main contract has not broken the short - term adjustment pattern [2][3]. - **Price and Spread**: The main contract closed at 3031 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. The national average spot price was 3968.57 yuan/ton, down 2.31%. The national average soybean crushing profit was 697.4996 yuan/ton, down 51.24 yuan/ton. The basis of various contracts has increased, and there are changes in cross - variety and cross - period spreads [2]. 菜粕 - **Inventory and Price Support**: As of April 18, coastal oil - mill rapeseed inventory decreased, and rapeseed meal inventory was low. Low inventory supports the spot price. The increasing price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal reduces substitution, but the rise in soybean meal prices drives up rapeseed meal prices. The increase in Canadian rapeseed prices also supports domestic prices [7]. - **Price and Spread**: The main contract closed at 2684 yuan/ton, down 1.50%. The national average spot price was 2714.21 yuan/ton, down 0.69%. The national average rapeseed spot pressing profit was - 578.177 yuan/ton, an increase of 54.08 yuan/ton. There are changes in basis, cross - variety, and cross - period spreads [4]. 棕榈油 - **Inventory and Market Sentiment**: As of April 18, the national key - area commercial inventory of palm oil was 38.44 million tons, up 3.58% week - on - week. The market sentiment shows that the proportions of those who are bullish, bearish, and neutral remain unchanged. The main contract closed at 8376 yuan/ton, up 1.77% [8][9]. - **Production and Price Outlook**: In April, the production of Malaysian palm oil from April 1 - 20 increased by 19.88% compared to the same period last month. The price is in a rebound trend, and near - month contracts may be strongly supported. Pay attention to US biodiesel policies, crude oil prices, and Malaysian palm oil export data in April [9]. 棉花 - **International**: As of April 20, the US cotton planting rate was 11%. The soil moisture in the main cotton - producing areas is expected to improve with rainfall. In Brazil, the soil moisture in cotton - growing areas has slightly deteriorated [11]. - **Domestic**: The intended cotton planting area in 2025 is 4376.3 million mu, up 1.5% year - on - year. The planting progress in Xinjiang is 62.3%, slightly faster than the same period. The spring peak season is ending, and the demand is weak. However, domestic retail and foreign trade exports show some resilience [12]. - **Price and Related Data**: The main contract CF2509 closed at 12990 yuan/ton, with no change. The domestic spot average price was 14241 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. There are changes in basis, cross - period spreads, and related profit and inventory data [10][11]. 红枣 - **Production and Market**: The main contract CJ2509 closed at 9080 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. Some jujube trees in southern Xinjiang have germinated, and the short - term weather impact is small. The inventory of 36 sample points decreased slightly, and the market trading is light. With the arrival of fresh fruits, the demand for jujubes is expected to decline [14][15]. 生猪 - **Supply and Demand**: The main contract LH2509 closed at 14150 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The supply pressure in April - June is limited, but it will increase in the third quarter. The demand has a slight increase but remains low. The inventory is gradually increasing [16][17]. - **Price and Related Data**: The national average spot price of live pigs was 14980 yuan/ton, down 0.20%. There are changes in basis, spreads, inventory, and profit data [16].

期货热点追踪 大商所棕榈油收盘跌近2%，马来西亚出口数据亮眼但期价却大幅走低，终结此前连续四日连涨态势， 需求增量为何难敌空头砸盘？ 相关链接 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term prices of beans and related oil products are showing a weakening trend, with an overall view of "oscillating weakly" for most products in the short - term and mid - term, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: As the expected Sino - US trade tensions ease, the risk premium of soybean futures prices faces the risk of retracement. Spot prices in North China and Northeast China have dropped significantly, and the futures market is adjusting the supply shortage expectation. The market expects supply to recover after May Day, and the pre - purchase by oil mills may gradually resolve the supply shortage. Downstream备货 mentality has changed, and subsequent stocking has become more cautious after a short - term concentrated stocking. Short - term soybean futures prices have retraced part of the risk premium and are obviously weak [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: With the significant decline in the price of raw soybeans, soybean oil futures prices have weakened. Palm oil lacks relevant themes and is a follower in the oil and fat sector. The supply - demand increase pattern in Southeast Asia cannot drive prices, and the increase in domestic ship purchases will replenish domestic inventories. Overall, palm oil is oscillating weakly in the short - term [7]. Other Related Varieties - **Soybean Oil (2509)**: The influencing factors include US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel stocking demand [6]. - **Palm (2509)**: Influenced by Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide specific industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: The driving force for an uptrend is questionable, and it is currently regarded as range - bound [2][4]. - Soybean oil: The sentiment in the spot market has improved, but there may be a correction at high levels [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Concerns in the spot market have eased, leading to a decline in Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal futures [2][14]. - Soybean: Affected by the fluctuations in the soybean meal spot market, it followed the downward trend [2][14]. - Corn: The trend is slightly bullish with oscillations [2][17]. - Sugar: It is in a range - bound consolidation [2][22]. - Cotton: Demand will continue to limit the rebound momentum of Zhengzhou cotton futures [2][26]. - Eggs: The spot market is weakly oscillating [2][31]. - Hogs: A phase of inventory reduction may commence [2][33]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the purchases by oil mills [2][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,376 yuan/ton with a 1.77% increase, and the night - session was 8,310 yuan/ton with a 0.79% decrease. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,934 yuan/ton with a 1.12% increase, and the night - session was 7,868 yuan/ton with a 0.83% decrease [5]. - Spot: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,230 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,420 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan [5]. - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 854 yuan/ton, and that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 486 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro and Industry News** - Malaysian palm oil exports from April 1 - 25 increased by 14.75% (AmSpec), 13.8% (ITS), and 3.6% (SGS) compared to the same period last month [6][8][9]. - The Indian vegetable oil industry urged the government to adjust import tariffs to support domestic refining capacity [9]. - According to the CFTC report, as of April 22, long positions in CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and ICE rapeseed increased, while short positions in CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and ICE rapeseed also changed [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of - 1 [13]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: DCE soybean 2507 closed at 4,237 yuan/ton during the day - session with a 1.42% decrease, and DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3,031 yuan/ton with a 0.92% decrease [14]. - Spot: The price of 43% soybean meal in Shandong was 3,750 - 3,850 yuan/ton, down 50 or 20 yuan [14]. - **Macro and Industry News** - On April 25, CBOT soybean futures mostly fell as China denied tariff negotiations [14][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of - 1 [16]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: C2505 closed at 2,292 yuan/ton during the day - session with a 0.39% increase, and C2507 closed at 2,336 yuan/ton with a 0.34% increase [18]. - Spot: The price of Jinzhou's flat - price corn was 2,240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of Guangdong Shekou's corn was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [18]. - **Macro and Industry News** - Corn prices in northern ports and various regions showed an upward trend [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 1 [20]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: The main futures price was 5,974 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [22]. - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 6,190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [22]. - **Macro and Industry News** - High - frequency information indicated drought in Guangxi, low inventories in Brazil, lower - than - expected production in India, and low precipitation in Brazil's Q1 [22]. - CAOC estimated that China's sugar production in the 24/25 season would be 1,100 million tons, consumption 1,580 million tons, and imports 500 million tons [23]. - ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 488 million tons in the 24/25 season [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [24]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: CF2509 closed at 12,990 yuan/ton during the day - session with no change, and CY2507 closed at 18,935 yuan/ton with a 0.21% decrease [26]. - Spot: The price of 3128B cotton index was 14,224 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [26]. - **Macro and Industry News** - The domestic cotton spot market was quiet, and the cotton textile industry faced challenges such as insufficient orders and reduced procurement [27]. - ICE cotton closed at 68.7 cents/pound on Friday, affected by poor export data and favorable weather [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [30]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Egg 2505 closed at 3,164 yuan/500 kg with a 1.54% increase, and Egg 2509 closed at 3,818 yuan/500 kg with a 0.03% decrease [31]. - Spot: The price of eggs in Liaoning was 3.35 yuan/jin, unchanged [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [31]. Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Henan's spot price was 14,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of hog 2505 was 14,115 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [35]. - Spot: The prices of hogs in Sichuan and Guangdong also decreased [35]. - **Market Logic** - After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, second - fattening started, but recently, the sentiment has cooled, and a phase of inventory reduction may begin. The support level for the LH2505 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hogs have a trend intensity of - 1 [36]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: PK505 closed at 8,046 yuan/ton with a 1.52% decrease, and PK510 closed at 8,270 yuan/ton with a 0.78% increase [38]. - Spot: The prices of peanuts in various regions were relatively stable [38][39]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [40].