三位知情人士透露，美国去年曾因印度购买委内瑞拉石油威胁对其征收关税，如今美方已告知印度方 面，印方很快可恢复相关采购，以此替代部分俄罗斯石油进口。 这些不愿具名的知情人士表示，在美国就印度采购俄油相关行为也加关税后，印度承诺大幅削减俄原油 进口，且未来数月内，印度的俄罗斯石油进口量有望日均减少数十万桶。 消息人士未透露委内瑞拉石油将由维多、托克等外部贸易商承销，还是由委内瑞拉国家石油公司委内瑞 拉石油公司直接销售。 白宫和美国财政部均拒绝置评，印度石油部长及外交部也未就相关问询邮件作出回应。 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 三位知情人士透露，美国去年曾因印度购买委内瑞拉石油威胁对其征收关税，如今美方已告知印度方 面，印方很快可恢复相关采购，以此替代部分俄罗斯石油进口。 这些不愿具名的知情人士表示，在美国就印度采购俄油相关行为也加关税后，印度承诺大幅削减俄原油 进口，且未来数月内，印度的俄罗斯石油进口量有望日均减少数十万桶。 消息人士未透露委内瑞拉石油将由维多、托克等外部贸易商承销，还是由委内瑞拉国家石油公司委内瑞 拉石油公司直接销售。 白宫和美国财政部均拒绝置评，印度石油部长及外交部也未就相关问询邮件作出 ...

Group 1 - International oil prices have declined, leading to a continued drop in Hong Kong oil stocks, with 延长石油国际 falling over 7% and 中国海洋石油 and 上海石油化工 down nearly 4% [1] - In Asian early trading, WTI crude oil fell below $63 per barrel, down 4.24%, while Brent crude dropped 3.29% to $67.037 per barrel [1] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to reduced supply disruption risks due to indications of potential negotiations between the US and Iran, as stated by Trump and reported by The Wall Street Journal [1] Group 2 - The stock performance of various oil companies includes 延长石油国际 at 0.390 (-7.14%), 甲国海洋石温 at 23.480 (-3.69%), 上海石油化工股 at 1.530 (-3.77%), 中国石油股份 at 9.000 (-3.02%), 中海油田服务 at 8.400 (-1.98%), 昆仑能源 at 7.880 (-1.50%), and 中国石油化工股 at 5.310 (-1.30%) [2]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 金融属性方面，上周美联储本轮的议息会议如期暂停了加息脚步，这基本符合市场对于鲍威尔卸任前的 平稳操作的预期，美国经济仍在稳健扩张，失业率已出现企稳迹象，但通胀水平依然略高，当前货币政 策立场被视为合适，然而本次声明之中删除了关于"就业下行风险"上升的表述，反而同时强调了就业与 通胀两方面的风险，这或意味着美联储仍认为后续的通胀存在着不可控的境地。同时，市场上周也在关 注特朗普对于下任美联储领导人的提名，据悉，特朗普正式提名目前的理事凯文·沃什为下一任美联储 主席，且表示后者承诺会进行降息。虽然沃什"建制派"的作风背景被视为市场的定心丸，但其近期关于 降息及缩表方面的激进行动可能会引发后续的市场动荡，并且目前美国国会也有部分官员对特朗普的任 命表示反对，这都可能会在后续两次鲍威尔卸任前的议息会议上再度引发热议。此外，美国上周再度掀 起了关税方面的政策变化，其中将部分韩国输送往美国的部分商品关税上调至25%，并在周四时间宣布 美国进入国家紧急状态，授权对任何向古巴销售或提供石油的国家加征关税，同时威胁加拿大可能会把 输美飞机关税征收50%，以上信息 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The demand for precious metals lies in the choice of sovereign funds in the context of de - dollarization. The trends of de - dollarization and reserve diversification continue. The medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals. There has been a relatively significant increase in domestic gold warehouse receipts and a relatively significant decrease in US gold warehouse receipts. Domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts have dropped sharply [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold AU and Silver AG Viewpoints - The demand for precious metals is due to sovereign funds' choices in the de - dollarization context. De - dollarization and reserve diversification trends are ongoing. The medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals. Domestic gold warehouse receipts have risen notably while US gold warehouse receipts have fallen notably, and domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts have plunged [2][3] Fundamentals - The US released a defense strategy report, prioritizing homeland security and its interests in the Western Hemisphere. The US military convened generals from 34 Western Hemisphere countries to strengthen anti - drug military cooperation. Trump said that Iran is having "serious" talks with the US and hopes to reach an acceptable agreement. US media reported that the US is signaling negotiations with Iran, and the two sides may meet in Turkey. The Federal Reserve paused rate hikes in its January meeting, keeping the interest rate in the 3.5 - 3.75% range. Milan and Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Powell reiterated that the interest rate is at the upper end of the neutral range and said that if tariff - related inflation peaks and then falls, it indicates that policy can be loosened. Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chairman, expecting him to push for rate cuts. The White House is confident that Warsh's nomination will be quickly confirmed [2][3] Gold and Silver Market Overview - One - Week Policy and Fundamental Review - The US Treasury took initial steps to intervene in the foreign exchange market. The US released a defense strategy report and strengthened anti - drug military cooperation in the Western Hemisphere. The US is pressuring Bolivia to expel suspected Iranian spies and discussing similar actions in other countries. The Trump administration is considering a naval blockade on Cuba's oil imports. Trump said the US obtained oil from a seized Venezuelan oil tanker. The Japanese yen suddenly rose nearly 200 points, and Japanese officials are closely monitoring the foreign exchange market. Trump increased the reciprocal tariff rate on South Korea from 15% to 25%. The EU will fully ban the import of Russian liquefied natural gas in January 2027 and Russian pipeline gas by the end of September. The Federal Reserve paused rate hikes, and some officials supported rate cuts. South Korea is expected to discuss a $350 billion investment program with the US. Trump will announce the Fed chairman nominee and called for a 2 - 3 percentage - point rate cut. Trump said Putin agreed to a one - week ceasefire in parts of Ukraine. Iran will conduct live - fire naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. The EU listed the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a "terrorist organization". The US Treasury did not list any economy as a currency manipulator. The World Gold Council said that central banks' net gold purchases in Q4 were 230 tons, and strong gold demand in 2026 is expected to continue. OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The US government entered a partial "shutdown" state, but the House Speaker is confident to end it. SpaceX applied to deploy one million satellites to build an orbital AI data center network [7] Gold and Silver Market Overview - Gold Market Tracking - **COMEX Futures and Options**: The latest long - position of managed funds is 122,450, and the short - position is 35,978. The 5 - day change in the long - position is - 4%, and in the short - position is - 1%. The 1 - week change in the long - position is - 5,556, and in the short - position is 2,599 [8] - **ETF Holdings**: The latest total ETF holding of gold is 1,447 tons, with SPDR's holding at 862 tons and iShares' at 402 tons. The 5 - day changes are - 2% and - 4% respectively [8] - **Futures Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: The latest futures position of gold in Shanghai is 407,927 hands, and the Shanghai warehouse receipt is 3 tons. The 5 - day change in the futures position is 16,492 hands, and the 1 - week change in the warehouse receipt is - 1 ton [8] Gold and Silver Market Overview - Silver Market Tracking - **COMEX Futures and Options**: The latest long - position of managed funds is 44,277, and the short - position is 27,801. The 5 - day change in the long - position is 57, and in the short - position is 58. The 1 - week change in the long - position is - 4,423, and in the short - position is - 4,757 [12] - **ETF Holdings**: The latest total ETF holding of silver is 23,620 tons, and SLV's holding is 13,802 tons. The 5 - day changes are 58 and 78,420 respectively [12] - **Futures Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: The latest futures position of silver in Shanghai is 971,795 hands, and the Shanghai warehouse receipt is 1,075 tons. The 5 - day change in the futures position is 78,420 hands, and the 5 - day change in the warehouse receipt is - 7 tons [12] Gold and Silver Market Overview - Gold and Silver Import Profit Tracking - The import gold hedging profit margin and import silver hedging profit margin are presented in a time - series graph, with data from July 15, 2024, to January 15, 2026 [19] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Dollar Index Futures Position Tracking - The non - commercial net long - position of the US dollar index and the total futures and options positions of the US dollar index are presented in time - series graphs, with data from July 1, 2025, to January 27, 2026 [21][22][23] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Treasury Futures Position Tracking - The non - commercial net long - positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury futures and options, as well as the total futures positions of US Treasuries, are presented in time - series graphs, with data spanning multiple years [26][27] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Inflation Expectation - The break - even inflation rates for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year periods are presented in a time - series graph, with data from December 5, 2025, to February 1, 2026 [31] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Real Interest Rate - The real yield curves of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasuries are presented in a time - series graph, with monthly data from March 2006 to September 2025 [33] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Interest Rate Term Structure - The US Treasury interest rates, inflation expectations (interpolated linearly within the year), and real interest rates (based on PCE, interpolated linearly within the year) for different maturities (1M - 30Y) are presented [35] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - 2 - Year Treasury Yield Spreads between the US and Major Non - US Countries - The yield spreads between the 2 - year US Treasury and 2 - year Treasuries of the UK, Japan, China, and Germany are presented in time - series graphs, with data from December 5, 2025, to February 1, 2026 [39]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices rebounded due to escalating geopolitical risks. The unstable situation in Iran persisted over the weekend. Although Trump received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran, no final decision has been made. Israel is on high alert for the possible US intervention in Iran. Iran has warned that if attacked, it will strike back at Israel and the US. The Iranian president showed a willingness to reconcile by meeting with the protest groups. If the US launches a military strike against Iran, oil prices may surge due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week. The Dubai month spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking margins strengthened while diesel cracking margins fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in Q1 is expected to be high and volatile. [6] 3. Summary of Relevant Sections Daily News - Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, stated that if the US initiates a war, it will be a regional conflict, not limited to one area. [3] - There was an explosion at Iran's southern Abbas Port, and Iranian media denied reports that a Revolutionary Guard commander was the target. [3] - US President Trump expressed hope that Iran would negotiate an acceptable agreement and said that Iran is having "serious" talks with the US. [4] - The US and Iran have signaled their willingness to negotiate, but experts believe there are significant differences on key issues, making the negotiation prospects difficult. The current tense situation may continue for some time. [4] - OPEC+ confirmed a production increase suspension in March and will hold the next meeting on March 1st. The previous daily production cut of 1.65 million barrels may be partially or fully restored based on market conditions. [4] Inventory - In the week of January 23rd, US crude oil exports increased by 901,000 barrels per day to 4.589 million barrels per day. [5] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 36,000 barrels to 13.696 million barrels per day. [17] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 2.295 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.54%. [17] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared to the same period last year. [17] - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 515,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, an increase of 0.12%. [17] - US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.642 million barrels per day, a decrease of 805,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [17] Weekly View - Crude oil prices rebounded this week due to geopolitical risks. If the US attacks Iran, oil prices may rise. Fundamentally, inventories increased, Dubai month spreads strengthened slightly after a low opening, gasoline cracking margins strengthened while diesel cracking margins fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. The price center in Q1 is expected to be high and volatile. [6]

小摩闭门会-金银暴跌油价上涨的原因，鹰派沃什伊朗局势 黄金基本面不变 20260201 摘要 黄金市场回调被认为是健康的，此前金价已接近超涨状态，凯文·沃什获 提名是催化剂，但趋势衰竭是回调的基础。预计央行将入场多元化配置， 中期目标仍看好黄金至 6,000 美元。 铜价近期剧烈波动，中国实体市场观望，投资性需求是推动因素。短期 内铜的基本面停滞，但未来 6-9 个月可能出现机会，关注 6 月 232 条款 审查和中国工业企业的接受度。 当前油价较公允价值高出约 9 美元，地缘政治溢价显著，特朗普政府对 伊朗采取行动的威胁增加。预计不会出现长期石油供应中断，短暂政治 驱动型油价上涨后将消退。 极寒天气对能源需求产生影响，美国石油产量减少近 200 万桶/日，需 求激增 50 万桶/日，欧洲需求增加 50 万桶/日。1 月全球供需平衡受到 日均 100 万桶负面影响，推高能源价格。 美国和欧洲极端天气导致能源市场供需两端出现极端事件。美国石油和 天然气供应受冻结影响，天然气产量日产量下降 180-190 亿立方英尺， LNG 原料气流量减半。 Q&A 近期黄金和白银市场波动剧烈，您如何看待这一现象？此次回调是否 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 康远宁 市场分析 价格价差：绝对价格方面，受美元走弱、伊朗局势以及资金推动三重因素叠加，油价在1月下旬持续走 高，布伦特突破70美元/桶，WTI突破65美元/桶，较年初反弹超过10美元/桶。 月差方面，三大基准油月差出现分化，布伦特月差出现显著飙升，Brent首次行价差飙升至1.6美元/桶， 与单边表现一致，WTI月差反弹幅度相对较小在0.5美元/桶，Dubai月差维持-0.56美元/桶的Contango结 构，但值得注意的是，CFD与北海实货贴水都已经高位回落，与Brent月差出现明显背离，虽然Brent绝 对价格与月差趋势一致，但月差与实货贴水以及Dubai月差出现明显背离，这说明基本面或者现货市场 参与者并不认同当前的单边价格趋势。 地区价差方面，Brent Dubai EFS首行持续反弹至2.8美元/桶，WTI-Brent近月价差扩大至5.4美元/桶，近 期CPC3号SPM已经复产上线滕吉兹油田也已经复产，但Brent结构依然坚挺，更多是地缘与流动性推 动，近期石油恐慌指数OVX与油价同步飙升，也显示当前市场出现 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, different industries and commodities show diverse trends. Some are affected by geopolitical factors, some by supply - demand relationships, and others by policy changes. For example, geopolitical tensions impact the energy sector, while supply - demand imbalances influence agricultural and industrial products [17][39]. - In the financial market, the style of stock index futures may shift, and the bond market may continue its short - term rebound. In the commodity market, various commodities such as black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals have their own specific trends and influencing factors [15][16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Information - Politically, China emphasizes the development of future industries, and the US has political and economic policy changes such as the nomination of a new Fed chair and government budget issues [8][13]. - Economically, China's January 2026 PMI data shows a decline, and the global precious metal market experiences a significant drop. The global storage chip manufacturers take measures to control customer hoarding [8][9][11]. - Financially, the Chinese government makes adjustments to the capital market, including promoting the development of the North Exchange and the New Third Board, and amending relevant regulations for listed companies and public funds [10]. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The index style may shift, with short - term weight stocks potentially outperforming. The current inventory form is in a passive replenishment state, and the PMI data is affected by multiple factors. Although the domestic export is supported by electromechanical products, the short - term market style may change [15]. Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market sentiment improves, and the short - term rebound trend may continue. The capital market is stable after a tight - then - loose period, and the current bond market is affected by supply and other factors [16]. Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - In the short term, steel and iron ore will fluctuate and consolidate. The current macro - policy has little impact on the market, and the supply - demand relationship of iron ore is relatively loose. The downstream situation and inventory levels affect steel prices [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. The production and inventory of coal and coke change, and the medium - term supply may be affected by policies. The supply - demand contradiction may improve during the Spring Festival [19]. Ferroalloys - For silicon iron, the medium - long - term multi - allocation idea remains unchanged. For manganese silicon, it is recommended to wait and see. The price difference between the two should be bought at low levels. The market is affected by cost and supply - demand factors [19]. Soda Ash and Glass - It is recommended to wait and see for now. The supply of soda ash is high, and there is an expectation of new capacity. The glass market has expectations of production line changes, and the current market is affected by inventory and price adjustment attempts [20]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, it will fluctuate strongly under policy influence. The demand in the first quarter may remain stable, and the supply is restricted, resulting in increased destocking [23]. Industrial Silicon - It will run strongly in the short term but is still under pressure due to pessimistic expectations. The supply - demand relationship may improve in February, but the sustainability is uncertain [24]. Polysilicon - It will run weakly and fluctuate under strict position - limit supervision. The policy affects the market, and the supply - demand relationship is weak, with high inventory pressure [25]. Agricultural Products Cotton - It is in a high - level and strong consolidation state. The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to decrease. The market is affected by factors such as holidays, policies, and inventory [27][30]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is under supply pressure, and the demand is not strong during the peak season. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - level range. The global sugar supply is in an oversupply situation [31][32]. Eggs - Before the Spring Festival, the spot price of eggs may weaken. The futures contract for the post - Spring Festival off - season is under pressure. The market is affected by inventory and consumption factors [33]. Apples - The futures price may run strongly. The current market is affected by factors such as inventory, sales, and price [34]. Red Dates - The market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is large, and the demand is stable. It is necessary to pay attention to the sales area's sales rhythm and purchaser's mentality [36]. Pigs - The supply and demand are both increasing, but the supply increase is greater. The short - term contract should be operated with a short - selling strategy. The market is affected by factors such as inventory, sales, and demand [37]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The price was supported by geopolitical premiums in January. Although there are negotiation signals, the fundamental supply is in excess. It is advisable to try short - selling at high prices [39]. Fuel Oil - The price follows the trend of crude oil, which is mainly affected by geopolitical factors. The supply - demand relationship has marginal improvement, and the inventory is at a high level [40]. Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and weak downstream demand. Although the upstream loss may support the price, the new capacity expectation restricts the rebound space [41][42]. Synthetic Rubber - It may maintain a strong trend driven by the cost of butadiene. It is advisable to buy on dips and pay attention to the weakening opportunity of the RU - BR price difference [43]. Methanol - The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, but there is a risk of short - term callback. It is necessary to pay attention to the port inventory and the development of geopolitical conflicts [44]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda futures should be treated with a bullish and fluctuating mindset. The current production and inventory are at high levels, and the market is affected by factors such as the price of liquid chlorine and the overall commodity market [45]. Asphalt - It will be closely monitored for the change of discount. It may fluctuate strongly in the short term, following the trend of crude oil [45][46]. Polyester Industry Chain - Due to the seasonal off - season, the near - end fundamentals are weak. It is advisable to consider positive spreads between May and September contracts of PX, PTA, or MEG [47]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The price support logic is weakening, and it is advisable to try short - selling at high prices. The supply and demand of upstream and downstream have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as import cost and season [48]. Pulp - The spot market transaction is weak, and the price has回调. However, the short - term price has support. It is advisable to establish long positions at low prices if the downstream purchasing intention improves [49]. Logs - The fundamental situation is bullish and fluctuating. The spot price is temporarily stable, and the market may fluctuate due to the influence of commodity sentiment [50]. Urea - The urea futures should be operated with a short - selling strategy in the short term. The spot market price is stable or slightly declining, and the market is affected by factors such as futures price changes and supply - side factors [51].

美股上周五表现向下，联储局下任主席提名人选落实，市场忧虑减息步伐未如预期，大市显著调整，尾 市跌幅稍为收窄，三大指数仍录得跌幅收市。美元走势反弹，美国十年期债息回升至4.24厘水平，金价 大幅调整，油价亦反复回落。 今日港股三大指数集体低开，恒指开盘跌1.06%，报27097.34点，恒科指跌1.29%，国企指数跌1.35%。 盘面上，科网股普跌，网易、哔哩哔哩、阿里巴巴跌超2%，百度、腾讯、快手跌超1%；黄金股普跌， 灵宝黄金跌超13%；汽车股走弱，小鹏汽车跌超5%；石油股回调，中石油跌超2%；内房股多数下跌， 万科跌超6%。 美股上周五表现向下，联储局下任主席提名人选落实，市场忧虑减息步伐未如预期，大市显著调整，尾 市跌幅稍为收窄，三大指数仍录得跌幅收市。美元走势反弹，美国十年期债息回升至4.24厘水平，金价 大幅调整，油价亦反复回落。 今日港股三大指数集体低开，恒指开盘跌1.06%，报27097.34点，恒科指跌1.29%，国企指数跌1.35%。 盘面上，科网股普跌，网易、哔哩哔哩、阿里巴巴跌超2%，百度、腾讯、快手跌超1%；黄金股普跌， 灵宝黄金跌超13%；汽车股走弱，小鹏汽车跌超5%；石油股回调，中 ...

早上好，来看一些重要资讯。 特朗普称希望与伊朗"能够达成协议" 据央视报道，当地时间2月1日，美国总统特朗普在海湖庄园回答记者有关伊朗问题时表示，希望"能够 达成协议"。 特朗普就伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊有关"美方若发动打击将引发地区战争"的警告作出回应，称如果无法达 成协议，"那我们就会看看他（哈梅内伊）说的是否正确"。特朗普对记者强调，美方在相关地区部署 了"世界上最大、最强大的舰艇"。 伊朗外长：对与美国就核问题达成协议"仍然有信心" 据央视报道，伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐当地时间2月1日在接受媒体采访时表示，伊朗对与美国就 核问题达成协议"仍然有信心"。 阿拉格齐说，伊朗"对美国作为谈判伙伴已经失去信任"。不过，他表示，通过地区友好国家进行的信息 沟通正在推动双方接触，并称相关谈判"是富有成效的"，"对方在与我们对话，也在认真对待我们"。 在是否开展直接谈判的问题上，阿拉格齐拒绝作出承诺，强调应将重点放在"谈判的实质内容"而非形式 上，并表示"不必讨论不可能的事情"。他还重申，伊朗希望美方解除长期制裁，同时尊重伊朗在和平利 用核能框架下继续进行铀浓缩的权利。 阿拉格齐还表示，如果双方能够达成某种共识，消 ...