Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant appreciation of precious metals and global stock markets in 2025, driven by factors such as yen depreciation and geopolitical uncertainties, suggesting a shift in investment strategies towards diversification and precious metals [2][4][10]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - As of December 24, gold prices increased by 70% compared to the end of 2024, marking the largest rise since 1979. Silver and platinum also saw their prices more than double [2]. - The Japanese Precious Metals Market Association noted that both silver and platinum, being smaller markets than gold, experienced substantial price increases in the second half of the year [5]. Group 2: Stock Market Trends - The MSCI All Country World Index, tracked by the popular global equity investment trust "eMAXIS Slim All World Equity," rose by 20% as of December 24 compared to the end of 2024. European stocks, represented by the Stoxx 600, increased by 31%, while the Nikkei index rose by 26% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by 28% [7]. - There is a growing sentiment that emerging market stocks have become attractive for diversification due to declining trust in the US and concerns over dollar depreciation [7]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Factors - The depreciation of the yen has led to an increase in the value of overseas assets when priced in yen. The current exchange rate is approximately 156 yen to 1 USD, with the euro appreciating to around 184 yen, marking a 13% increase compared to the end of 2024 [9]. - Expectations of economic stimulus from the European Central Bank and the EU's plans have contributed to the euro's strength against the yen [9]. Group 4: Future Investment Strategies - For 2026, diversification in investment strategies is emphasized, particularly in adjusting allocations away from a heavy focus on US stocks and technology sectors. Investments in precious metals like gold are also recommended as a hedge against currency depreciation and geopolitical risks [10]. - Market analysts suggest that precious metals possess intrinsic value and can serve as effective asset preservation tools, although the volatility of silver and platinum compared to gold should be noted [10].

来源：同花顺 上证指数今天日线迎来8连阳，追平今年以来至今的最长连阳纪录，此前共发生两次，一次发生在4月11日至22日，另一次在8月4日至13日。 有色金属板块大涨，工业金属、贵金属、小金属、能源金属等板块集体上涨。 分析人士表示，本轮有色金属板块行情驱动因素复杂，各细分板块逻辑存在明显差异。其中，工业金属（如铜、铝）的核心驱动力更偏重经济周 期的景气度变化；而贵金属（如黄金）作为"货币的锚"，行情主要受全球货币因素、风险事件变化等推动；小金属则更多与相关产业创新、细分 产业政策等因素挂钩。 今天，A股上涨。截至收盘，上证指数上涨0.1%，深证成指上涨0.54%，创业板指上涨0.14%。 首先，从供需结构来看，工业金属，尤其是铜，持续面临供不应求的失衡格局。一方面，自2015年起，全球铜矿资本开支持续低迷，供给端长期 紧缺。另一方面的需求端呈现多点爆发态势，新能源汽车、光伏、AI、人形机器人等新兴产业快速扩张，对工业金属的需求量日益剧增。 其次，从宏观环境看，据CME"美联储观察"的最新数据，美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率升至26.6%。若美联储"如期"降息，美元走弱，将利 好金属价格。 最后，从政策面看 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market has rebounded sharply, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, persistent supply mismatches in key spot markets, and a weakening dollar, leading to significant price increases across precious and base metals [1]. Precious Metals - Silver prices have reached a historical high, trading at $74.37 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 4.5% [2]. - Gold prices have also risen, trading above $4,500 per ounce, with a peak above $4,530 per ounce, marking a new historical high [3]. - Platinum and palladium have rebounded strongly, with platinum rising 8% to $2,413.62 per ounce, also reaching record highs [5]. - The overall increase in precious metals reflects a deep investor anxiety regarding the macro environment and a strong demand for physical assets, with gold and silver prices up approximately 70% and over 150% respectively this year [8]. Base Metals - Copper prices have surged by 3% to $5,771 per ton, the highest level since July, driven by supply concerns and a weakening dollar [4][13]. - The market is anticipating tighter global supply by 2026, which is influencing current pricing strategies [14]. Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing severe physical shortages, with a significant negative spread indicating extreme tightness in supply [10]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, including U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and military actions in Nigeria, have heightened the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets [11]. - The influx of funds into gold ETFs has been robust, with global holdings increasing monthly, indicating strong institutional demand [12]. Lithium and Aluminum - Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded strongly, breaking through the 130,000 yuan mark, driven by improving supply-demand dynamics in the electric vehicle sector [16]. - Aluminum prices have seen a significant increase of over 6%, influenced by market speculation regarding potential production cuts amid a backdrop of oversupply [17].

Report Overview - Report Date: December 26, 2025 - Report Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining [2]. - **Silver**: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2]. - **Copper**: Positive market sentiment supports price increases [2]. - **Zinc**: Moving in a sideways range [2]. - **Lead**: Declining inventory supports prices [2]. - **Tin**: Supply is facing new disruptions [2]. - **Aluminum**: Showing a slightly upward - trending oscillation [2]. - **Alumina**: Continuously bottom - grinding [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - **Platinum**: Bullish sentiment dominates [2]. - **Palladium**: Oscillating upward [2]. - **Nickel**: Intense capital game on the trading floor leads to wide - range price fluctuations [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: Both supply and demand in the fundamentals are weak, and news from Indonesian nickel mines causes disruptions [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,014.24, up 1.34%; Gold T + D was 1,006.45, up 1.44%; Comex Gold 2602 was 4515.00, up 0.77% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 decreased by 2,375 to 276,418; the open interest decreased by 2,397 to 199,893. Comex Gold 2602's trading volume increased by 42,965 to 241,461, and open interest increased by 8,818 to 360,434 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Gold inventory increased by 1,995 to 93,711 kg; Comex Gold inventory (previous day) increased by 114,168 to 36,120,091 troy ounces [4]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [8]. Silver - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 16441, up 1.50%; Silver T + D was 16420, up 1.52%; Comex Silver 2602 was 71.610, up 3.65% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 decreased by 474,555 to 1,230,157; the open interest decreased by 921 to 340,510. Comex Silver 2602's trading volume increased by 30,063 to 127,435, and open interest remained unchanged at 114,525 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Silver inventory decreased by 1805 to 899,663 kg; Comex Silver inventory (previous day) decreased by 3,083,409 to 450,643,486 troy ounces [4]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [8]. Copper - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 96,210, up 0.11%; the night - session closing price was 97680, up 1.53%. LME Copper 3M was 12,133, up 0.65% [9]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Copper Index decreased by 81,418 to 477,230; the open interest decreased by 7,370 to 651,557. LME Copper 3M's trading volume decreased by 8,111 to 18,195, and open interest decreased by 2,248 to 340,000 [9]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory increased by 6,861 to 59,083; LME Copper inventory decreased by 1,550 to 157,025, and the注销仓单 ratio was 29.63%, down 1.19% [9]. - **Trend Strength**: 2 [11]. Zinc - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 23065, down 0.71%; LME Zinc 3M was 3086.5, down 0.32% [12]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract decreased by 46305 to 125213; the open interest decreased by 1875 to 93322. LME Zinc's trading volume decreased by 4941 to 5944, and open interest decreased by 646 to 227051 [12]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory decreased by 1092 to 41319; LME Zinc inventory increased by 7900 to 106875 [12]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [14]. Lead - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17315, up 0.52%; LME Lead 3M was 1999.5, up 0.83% [15]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Lead's main contract decreased by 12922 to 55100; the open interest decreased by 210 to 56328. LME Lead's trading volume decreased by 1794 to 3806, and open interest increased by 167 to 178155 [15]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 900 to 11457; LME Lead inventory decreased by 4200 to 248900 [15]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [16]. Tin - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 344,750, up 1.27%; LME Tin 3M was 42,835, up 0.25% [18]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Tin's main contract decreased by 11,222 to 228,643; the open interest increased by 31,914 to 61,161. LME Tin 3M's trading volume decreased by 9 to 180, and open interest increased by 53 to 13,988 [18]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory increased by 655 to 8,340; LME Tin inventory increased by 50 to 4,675, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, down 0.38% [18]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum** - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 22275, down 55; LME Aluminum 3M was 2957, unchanged [22]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract decreased by 65183 to 229349; the open interest decreased by 6450 to 290474. LME Aluminum 3M's trading volume was unchanged at 11757 [22]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [24]. - **Alumina** - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract was 2646, up 92 [22]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [24]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Trend Strength**: 1 [24]. Platinum and Palladium - **Platinum** - **Price**: The closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 686.95, up 4.46%; the price of Gold Exchange Platinum was 591.25, down 2.59% [25]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum increased by 201,102 to 227.666; the open interest increased by 718 to 48.732. NYMEX Platinum's trading volume was 82,975, and open interest was 28,141 [25]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [28]. - **Palladium** - **Price**: The closing price of Palladium Futures 2606 was 529.05, down 8.54%; the price of RMB Spot Palladium was 416.00, down 9.37% [25]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Palladium decreased by 2,565 to 100.293; the open interest decreased by 2,067 to 23.862. NYMEX Palladium's trading volume was 48.123, and open interest was 67.992 [25]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel** - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 125,410, down 2,590 [31]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [35]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Price**: The closing price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 12,990, down 85 [31]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [35].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording an 8-day winning streak, closing up 0.1% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 237.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3963.68 (+0.10%) - Shenzhen Component Index: 1463.04 (+0.54%) - ChiNext Index: 3243.88 (+0.14%) - CSI 300 Index: 4657.24 (+0.32%) [2] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector showed strong performance, with China Satellite achieving a three-day consecutive rise, reaching a 10-year high market value of 94.6 billion yuan [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a surge, with Jiangxi Copper hitting the daily limit, and China Aluminum, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Western Mining rising over 7% [4] - The lithium battery supply chain remained strong, with several companies hitting the daily limit, including Tianji Co., which achieved three limit-ups in four days [4] Precious Metals Market - Precious metals futures continued to soar, with platinum futures reaching a daily increase of 9.99%, hitting a new high of 709.85 yuan per gram [7] - International spot platinum also rose nearly 10%, reaching 2445.6 USD per ounce, marking a historical high [7] - Other precious metals, including gold and silver, also saw significant increases, with spot gold fluctuating around 4520 USD per ounce and spot silver rising over 4% [7][8] Investment Insights - Despite the long-term positive outlook for precious metals, short-term price volatility remains high, and investors are advised to be cautious in a high-volatility environment [9]

A股市场板块涨跌幅排行 中国经济网北京12月26日讯 沪指、创指午后翻红，深证成指继续上行。截至收盘，上证指数报3963.68 点，上涨0.10%，成交额8936.44亿元；深证成指报13603.89点，上涨0.54%，成交额12665.47亿元；创业板指报 3243.88点，上涨0.14%，成交额5713.14亿元。 | 序号 | 板块 | 涨跌幅(%)▼ | | 总成交量（万手） = 总成交额（亿元）▼ | 净流入 (亿元) ▼ | 上涨家数 | 下跌家数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 工业会屋 | 3.58 | 5385.68 | 675.64 | 128.15 | 52 | ଚ | | 2 | 需要遇 | 3.01 | 685.54 | 119.83 | 12.40 | 11 | 0 | | 3 | 説得等 | 2.91 | 466.28 | 231.14 | 26.50 | 12 | 1 | | র্ব | 小我屋 | 2.08 | 1219.21 | 383.85 | 17.80 | 23 | ব | | 5 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector is experiencing a significant rally, driven by record-high prices for gold and silver, indicating strong demand and potential investment opportunities in this area [1]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market Performance - On December 26, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets saw a strong upward trend, particularly in the precious metals sector, with the metal ETF (159871) rising by 3.92% [1]. - Notable stocks such as Yongxing Materials, Jiangxi Copper, and Guocheng Mining reached the daily limit of 10% increase, while Zhongmin Resources rose over 8% and Zijin Mining increased by more than 4% [1]. - International spot gold and silver prices reached historic highs, with gold touching $4,531.284 per ounce and silver peaking at $75.142 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Outlook - Huachuang Securities' 2026 investment strategy highlights that central bank gold purchases will support long-term demand for gold, with China's gold reserves having room for growth [1]. - The ongoing interest rate cut cycle is expected to boost investment demand for gold [1]. - For silver, a persistent supply-demand gap and low domestic inventory are expected to support price increases, indicating strong upside potential [1]. - The investment recommendation suggests a favorable long-term positioning in precious metals due to the weakening of dollar credit amid de-globalization trends [1]. Group 3: Long-term Trends in Non-ferrous Metals - The long-term positive trend in the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to continue, with a recommendation to focus on the non-ferrous metal ETF (159871) to capture structural opportunities [2].

另外当前，外国投资者持有美国国债占比持续下降，根据特里芬悖论，美元无法保持长期的稳定性，货币属性的回摆将 持续抬升金银的价格中枢。 与此同时，今年以来，白银价格上涨了158%，涨幅远超黄金，并突破了75美元大关，这主要得益于结构性赤字、白银被 列入美国重要矿产清单以及强劲的工业需求。 OANDA高级市场分析师Kelvin Wong表示，自12月初以来，动能驱动型和投机型交易者一直在推动黄金和白银的上涨， 年末流动性稀薄、对美联储长期降息的预期、美元走弱以及地缘政治风险激增共同作用，将贵金属推至新的纪录高位。 明年上半年白银有潜力达到每盎司90美元左右。 今日周五(12月26日)欧盘时段，国际白银目前交投于74.31一线上方，今日开盘于71.94美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银 暂报74.88美元/盎司，上涨4.09%，最高触及75.13美元/盎司，最低下探71.94美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏 向震荡走势。 目前据CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率为15.5%，维持利率不变的概率为84.5%。到明年3月累计 降息25个基点的概率为42.2%，维持利率不变的概率为51.8%，累计 ...

格隆汇12月26日｜现货黄周五曾触及每盎司4530.6美元的纪录高点，现货白银一度触及75.14美元的历史 新高。OANDA高级市场分析师Kelvin Wong表示，自12月初以来，动能驱动型和投机型交易者一直在推 动黄金和白银的上涨，年末流动性稀薄、对美联储长期降息的预期、美元走弱以及地缘政治风险激增共 同作用，将贵金属推至新的纪录高位。明年上半年黄金可能向每盎司5000美元水平迈进，而白银有潜力 达到每盎司90美元左右。此外，铂金和钯金因供应紧张、关税不确定性以及黄金投资需求轮动而飙升， 年内迄今铂金上涨约165%，钯金上涨逾90%。信实证券高级研究分析师Jigar Trivedi表示，铂金受到强 劲工业需求的支撑，美国库存商在制裁相关担忧中一直在补仓，这有助于维持价格高位。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached new highs, with spot gold breaking through $4,510 per ounce, reflecting a broader increase in the precious metals sector, including silver and copper [1] Group 1: Technical Analysis - Three technical signals indicate a potential short-term peak for gold prices: a "shooting star" pattern, MACD divergence, and a declining RSI [3] - The "shooting star" pattern formed with significant upper shadows on the candlestick chart, suggesting strong selling pressure [3] - The MACD indicator shows a divergence, with prices reaching new highs while the indicator peaks are declining, marking the first occurrence since September [3] - The RSI has shown a downward trend from 68 to 64 over three days, indicating a hidden divergence as prices remain above $4,500 [3] Group 2: Fundamental Factors - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with an 84.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut by December 2025, limiting potential upside for gold unless the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish stance [3] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers and escalating issues in the Red Sea, have temporarily boosted gold prices, but ETF holdings have decreased by 3 tons, indicating profit-taking by institutions [3] Group 3: Historical Patterns and Price Predictions - Historically, March has seen significant volatility in gold prices, with past instances showing over $100 fluctuations, suggesting a high probability of a peak in March [4] - Analysts predict that if gold fails to close above $4,530 twice this week, a short-term peak will be confirmed, with potential pullback targets at $4,400 and $4,320 [4] - Despite short-term corrections, the long-term outlook remains bullish, with expectations for gold to reach $5,000 by 2026 due to ongoing central bank purchases and dollar credit expansion [4]