Core Insights - The "2025 New Consumption Conference" will take place on December 17 in Shanghai, focusing on the transformative changes in the consumer industry and the emergence of new growth forces [1] - The conference will feature discussions on various aspects of the consumer sector, including trends, business models, and innovative products, aimed at providing insights into brand growth and strategies for the new consumption landscape [2] Group 1 - The consumer industry is undergoing significant changes, with trends such as the rise of IP and trendy products appealing to Generation Z, the integration of AI in consumption and e-commerce, and the competitive landscape of food delivery services [1] - Numerous consumer brands are entering the capital market, and Chinese brands are expanding into global markets, while niche sectors like pet and technology consumption are experiencing robust growth [1] Group 2 - The conference will include a review of classic consumer business cases from 2025 and will analyze innovative products and models within the industry [2] - The event will also unveil typical case studies that showcase the resilience and innovative power of the consumer industry [3]

债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.15 把握跨年行情布局时机 [Table_Authors] 顾一格(分析师) 转债事件点评 本报告导读： 预计转债市场短期将维持震荡巩固，在临近年底时有望预热反弹。建议均衡配置， 攻守兼备。短期来看，若市场出现因流动性扰动带来的调整，可视作布局时机。 投资要点： | | 021-38038201 | | --- | --- | | | guyige@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522120006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 12 月 FOMC会议简评：眼下的鸽与未来的鹰 2025.12.12 跨年攻势序幕有望开启 2025.12.08 压力测试下转债具备韧性 2025.11.24 REIT 打新策略数据跟踪 2025.10.29 买卖国债如何理解：从"长"计议 2025.10.28 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 点 债 券 研 究 事 件 评 [Table_Summary] 过去一周（12 月 8 日-12 月 12 日），A 股市场整体呈现震荡分化格 局，成长风格显著跑赢。主要指数中，创业 ...

Market Overview - The overall market experienced a decline, closing at 4.2 stars [1] - Large-cap stocks slightly decreased, while small-cap stocks saw a more significant drop [2] - Recently underperforming value styles showed an overall increase today [3] - Indices related to dividends and cash flow rose [4] - Growth styles, which had been strong recently, faced a notable decline today [5] - The market has been in a sideways trend for the past two to three months, characterized by style rotation between growth and value [6] Valuation Insights - Last Friday marked the index rebalancing day for December, and the valuations observed today reflect data post-rebalancing [7] - Most indices related to dividends, value, and low volatility saw a slight decrease in valuations after the rebalancing [8] Policy Impact - New policies aimed at boosting domestic demand were announced, leading to a general rise in consumption-related indices [9] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rise last Friday but saw a decline today [10] - Technology indices in Hong Kong returned to undervalued status after today's drop [11] Investment Strategies - Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) can serve two purposes: saving money and reducing cost volatility [12][16] - DCA is effective in lowering costs during downturns, allowing for potential profits without needing to return to previous price levels [18][20] - The bond fund category is vast, with varying levels of volatility [21] - Long-term pure bond investments are more effective for DCA, especially during high-value investment phases [25] Bond Market Dynamics - Bond markets can experience bear markets, as seen from 2016 to 2018 and 2020 to 2021 [27] - Rising interest rates post-bond declines can enhance the attractiveness of long-term pure bonds [28] - The investment value of long-term pure bonds increases when the 10-year government bond yield is low [30][33] Investment Products - Besides long-term pure bond funds, there are also secondary bond funds and mixed-asset funds that primarily invest in bonds with some equity exposure [35] - These mixed products often include low-volatility dividend stocks and high free cash flow stocks [36] - The current year has been favorable for mixed-asset funds, with notable performance [37] Upcoming Events - A live session is scheduled to discuss personal pension investments and index fund selection on December 16 [40]

Market Review - The equity market showed mixed performance last week, with the North Certificate 50 index rising the most by 2.79%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34% [5][6] - The bond market saw a collective decline in both short and long-term interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.84 basis points to 1.840% [10][13] - The fund market reflected the equity market's influence, with the equity fund index increasing by 0.71% and the secondary bond fund index rising by 0.06% [16] Equity Product Allocation Strategy Event-Driven Strategy - The joint announcement by three departments to boost consumption suggests a focus on consumer-related funds such as Jiashi New Consumption A and Industrial Bank New Generation Consumption [18] - The release of the "Action Plan for Enhancing Elderly Care Service Capacity" indicates potential investment in the healthcare sector, with funds like Jiashi Mutual Selection A and Penghua Medical Innovation A being highlighted [19] - The opening of the "Robot World" emphasizes investment opportunities in AI and robotics, with funds like Huaxia Intelligent Manufacturing Upgrade A and Jiashi Frontier Innovation being recommended [20] Asset Allocation Strategy - The overall strategy suggests a balanced core plus a barbell approach, focusing on dividend and technology sectors, with recommended funds including Anxin Dividend Selection A and Jiashi Hong Kong Internet Core Assets [21][26] - The dividend assets are highlighted for their value in a low-interest-rate environment, supported by national policies encouraging regular dividends from companies [21] - The technology growth direction is emphasized due to government support and the global trend towards AI development, making tech companies increasingly attractive [22][23] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The analysis indicates a continued net injection by the central bank, maintaining a loose monetary environment, which is favorable for the bond market [27] - Recent CPI and PPI data show a slight increase in consumer prices, while the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut aligns with expectations for a supportive monetary policy [28] - Recommended products include short-term bond funds like Nord Short Bond A and Guotai Lianan Medium and Short Bond A, with a focus on maintaining a conservative risk profile [33]

Group 1 - China's strong export performance provides greater space for policy operations, with fiscal efforts expected to play a key role in addressing global economic uncertainties [1][6] - The Central Economic Work Conference outlined key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the need for a strong domestic market, innovation-driven growth, and coordinated development [3][4] - The focus on domestic demand indicates a potential reduction in external contributions to economic growth, necessitating macro policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment [4] Group 2 - The monetary policy will continue to be moderately accommodative, with the central bank likely to implement gradual interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [5] - Structural monetary policies will be optimized to support key sectors such as technology innovation, manufacturing upgrades, and green development [5] - The fiscal policy will remain proactive, with an emphasis on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and optimizing expenditure structures to address local fiscal challenges [5] Group 3 - Global monetary policy paths are diverging, with the U.S. Federal Reserve recently lowering interest rates while other major economies like the Eurozone and the UK are expected to maintain or even increase rates [7][11][12] - Emerging markets may benefit from a weaker dollar and potential further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, creating more room for local central banks to implement supportive monetary policies [14] - The economic outlook for emerging markets varies, with some countries like Brazil and India expected to maintain robust growth due to strong domestic demand [14]

12月15日，港股三大指数悉数回调，恒生科技指数跌逾2%，自带"科技+红利"哑铃策略的——香港大盘 30ETF（520560）随市盘整，场内价格现跌1.48%，值得关注的是，该ETF场内宽幅溢价，显示买盘资 金更为强势，或有资金逢跌进场布局！ 事实上，香港大盘30ETF（520560）此前5日连续获资金净流入，合计金额4349万元，拉长时间来看， 近20日累计吸金1.19亿元，反映资金看好港股后市表现，积极运用哑铃策略进行布局！ 细分方向来看，港股保险板块逆市活跃，中国平安一度涨近4%创阶段新高，中国人寿涨逾1%；港股消 费方面，百胜中国、安踏体育涨逾超1%，涨幅居前。另一方面，港股创新药龙头百济神州跌近7%，港 股科技龙头中芯国际、快手跌超2%，跌幅居前，拖累指数表现。 消息面上，国家金融监督管理总局发布《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》，进一步释放险 资入市空间。对保险公司投资沪深300指数成分股、中证红利低波动100指数成分股以及科创板股票的风 险因子进行下调。 中信建投证券表示，与2023年9月下调股票投资风险因子相比，此次调整新增了对股票持仓时间的门槛 限制，有助于引导险资强化长期投资。根据 ...

来源：新浪基金 1、港股红利方面，中金公司指出，港股股息率高于A股（以银行板块为例，港股银行板块股息率为 6.1%，高于A股银行板块的4.3%），港股投资价值或更高。 2、港股科技方面，从千问、灵光等国产大模型带动AI应用叙事美联储降息周期持续层面来看，对于港 股科技股中长期投资价值有望日益凸显。 看好港股科技但又希望降低波动？也可以关注全市场首只——香港大盘30ETF（520560）及其联接基金 【联接A（LOF）501301；联接C 006355】，自带"科技+红利"哑铃策略，一基荟萃30只港股通中资大 盘股，重仓股既有阿里巴巴、腾讯控股等高弹性科技股，又囊括了建设银行、中国平安等稳健高股 息"T+0机制"交易灵活，是港股长期配置的理想底仓工具。 消息面上，国家金融监督管理总局发布《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》，进一步释放险 资入市空间。对保险公司投资沪深300指数成分股、中证红利低波动100指数成分股以及科创板股票的风 险因子进行下调。 中信建投证券表示，与2023年9月下调股票投资风险因子相比，此次调整新增了对股票持仓时间的门槛 限制，有助于引导险资强化长期投资。根据测算，预计合计释放最低 ...

12月15日，港股三大指数悉数回调，恒生科技指数跌逾2%，自带"科技+红利"哑铃策略的——香港大盘 30ETF（520560）随市盘整，场内价格现跌1.48%，值得关注的是，该ETF场内宽幅溢价，显示买盘资 金更为强势，或有资金逢跌进场布局！ 中信建投证券表示，与2023年9月下调股票投资风险因子相比，此次调整新增了对股票持仓时间的门槛 限制，有助于引导险资强化长期投资。根据测算，预计合计释放最低资本约198亿元，若全部用于增配 股票，则可能带来约726亿元的增量资金。 展望后市，调整后的港股性价比更优，科技和红利方向均有机会，核心资产的中长期配置价值值得重点 关注。配置上，广发证券建议采用哑铃策略，港股稳定价值类资产作为底仓长期配置，港股景气成长类 资产的产业逻辑依然坚实，震荡中孕育机会： 1、港股红利方面，中金公司指出，港股股息率高于A股（以银行板块为例，港股银行板块股息率为 6.1%，高于A股银行板块的4.3%），港股投资价值或更高。 2、港股科技方面，从千问、灵光等国产大模型带动AI应用叙事和美联储降息周期持续层面来看，对于 港股科技股中长期投资价值有望日益凸显。 看好港股科技但又希望降低波动？也可以 ...

Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index has stabilized near expansion territory, indicating a recovery in economic activity[1] - The Consumer Sentiment Index remains at the upper end of the expansion range, reflecting a rebound in consumer spending[1] - The Investment Sentiment Index shows significant recovery, approaching the neutral line, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing investments[1] Inflation and Prices - November 2025 CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with core CPI rising 1.2%, indicating ongoing recovery in consumer spending[2] - Food prices have shifted from decline to increase, contributing significantly to the CPI rise[2] - November 2025 PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, but the decline in some sectors has narrowed, reflecting improvements in competition and capacity optimization[2] Global Economic Context - As of December 6, 2025, initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 236,000, the largest weekly increase since March 2020, influenced by seasonal factors[5] - The U.S. unemployment rate has increased to 4.4%, indicating a softening labor market amid rising costs and demand pressures[7] - Mexico's new tariff law, effective 2026, will impose higher tariffs on imports from China and other non-free trade agreement countries, potentially impacting trade dynamics[6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the financial data and economic conditions in China, particularly focusing on the banking sector and macroeconomic indicators [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Loan Growth and Economic Trends** - In January, new loans amounted to 5.1 trillion yuan, indicating a typical credit peak season, but a slight decrease in loan growth is expected in the coming months, aligning with nominal economic growth trends [1][9]. - The demand for household credit remains weak due to multiple factors including a sluggish real estate market, stock market volatility, and declining consumer data [1][10]. 2. **Monetary Supply and Policy Environment** - M1 money supply growth has decreased to 4.9% year-on-year, while M2 growth remains stable at 8%, reflecting a relatively stable policy environment with no urgent need for adjustments [1][4]. - The central bank's financial data shows a year-on-year growth in social financing scale of 8.5%, with loan growth at 6.3%, indicating a stable overall performance but with some discrepancies from market expectations [2]. 3. **ETF Fund Flows and Market Sentiment** - Dividend ETFs continue to attract funds for low-positioning, while the technology sector shows weak liquidity. The CSI 500 ETF saw a net inflow close to 10 billion yuan, while tech-themed ETFs like AI, military, and semiconductors experienced significant net outflows [1][5][6]. - The banking sector is experiencing a daily net outflow of about 500 million yuan, but its fundamental improvement is considered highly certain, suggesting potential investment value [6]. 4. **Future Market Expectations** - An interest rate hike is anticipated around mid-2026 to address potential economic downturn risks. The banking sector's fundamentals are improving, but the overall upward potential is limited to about one or two percentage points [7][8]. - The consumer sector remains a market highlight, and the performance of innovative pharmaceutical stocks in Hong Kong is also noted [8]. 5. **Investment Policy and Economic Recovery** - Attention is required on the implementation of policies from the Central Economic Work Conference, particularly regarding "investment stabilization." Current market reactions are relatively muted, and there is a lack of new directions to boost investment growth [11]. - The potential for large-scale infrastructure projects or new monetary tools to support the economy is acknowledged, but the effectiveness may not match past initiatives like the 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan [11]. 6. **Market Dynamics and Risks** - The overall economic activity is showing signs of weakening, which is viewed as a healthy adjustment. The stock market requires strong policy signals to break out of its current stagnation [12]. - The impact of US-China competition is discussed, indicating that China is not at a disadvantage, which supports the RMB exchange rate and foreign capital allocation [13]. Additional Important Insights - The early loan disbursement by banks in October rather than December may influence corporate project growth [3]. - The current financial data suggests that without unexpected policy support, the stock market may struggle to maintain upward momentum [12]. - The debt market may see recovery opportunities following the Central Financial Conference, as high interest rates currently hinder fiscal debt issuance costs [12].