Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has announced the completion of the allocation of 69 billion yuan for the third batch of special bonds to support the consumption of old goods, with plans to allocate another 69 billion yuan in October, aiming to fulfill the annual target of 300 billion yuan [1] Group 1 - The NDRC will collaborate with the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, and other departments to ensure local governments fulfill their funding responsibilities and detail the usage plans for the allocated funds [1] - There will be an emphasis on enhancing product quality and price supervision to prevent risks such as "price increases followed by subsidies" and fraudulent claims for subsidies [1] - The goal is to ensure the orderly and balanced use of funds until the end of the year [1]

今年下半年，扩内需增量政策信号持续释放；"反内卷"将是重要政策议题；围绕稳住楼市股市，下半年 仍会有政策部署……近日，多部门召开经济形势座谈会、年中工作会或相关发布会，透露了下一步工作 重点。 2025年是"十四五"规划的收官之年，上半年 GDP（国内生产总值）增速达到5.3%。近日，多部门召开 经济形势座谈会、年中工作会或相关发布会，透露了下一步工作重点。专家表示，下半年政策主线仍将 聚焦扩内需、"反内卷"、稳楼市股市等方面。 全方位扩大内需 全方位扩大国内需求是今年重点任务之首，下半年扩内需增量政策信号持续释放。 7月16日召开的国务院常务会议研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作，并作出一系列针对性部 署，涉及扩大新兴服务业等领域投资、优化消费品以旧换新政策等。 "扩大内需""提振消费"成为各部门提及下一步施策重点时的高频词。近日，财政部在上半年财政收支情 况新闻发布会上提到，下一步将按照《提振消费专项行动方案》部署，加快出台提振消费增量政策举 措，引导地方提升消费环境，优化消费供给。国家发展改革委则多次强调，扩围提质实施"两新"政策， 加力实施"两重"建设。 消费品以旧换新是当前扩大内需的重要抓手。据 ...

Group 1 - In July, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1] - The production index and new orders index for July were 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, indicating a slowdown in market demand despite continued expansion in manufacturing activities [1] - Major raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March, while the factory price index was at 48.3% [1] Group 2 - Large enterprises' PMI was 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises' PMI improved to 49.5%, indicating a continued recovery in sentiment [1] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintained PMIs above the critical point at 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively [2] - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In July, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [2][3] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [3] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, although it decreased by 0.9 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5% [4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index stood at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point [5] - The service industry business activity index was stable at 50.0%, with sectors related to travel and consumption showing strong performance, while real estate and residential services lagged [5][6] - The construction business activity index fell to 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, due to adverse weather conditions affecting construction activities [6] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Insights - The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [7] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the comprehensive PMI, standing at 50.5% and 50.1% respectively [7]

Group 1 - European stock markets showed stability on a busy earnings day, with investors awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy decision [1] - The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed nearly flat, with L'Oréal rising 4.0% due to better-than-expected sales growth in North America [1] - The banking sector had mixed earnings results, with HSBC's disappointing quarterly profit leading to a 4.5% drop in its stock, while UBS rose 1.1% on better-than-expected earnings [1] - Automotive stocks led the decline, with Mercedes-Benz and Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Plc falling after lowering their earnings outlook [1] - Disappointing earnings reports weakened the gains in European stocks for July, with the Stoxx 600 index currently about 2% lower than its historical high set in March [1] Group 2 - Adidas saw a 12% drop in stock price due to revenue growth falling short of expectations [3] - Danone's stock rose 7.4% as its sales exceeded expectations [3]

Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30, 2025, maintained a "steady progress" policy tone, emphasizing the need to stabilize employment, expand domestic demand, and ensure market expectations[3] - The meeting acknowledged the positive effects of policies implemented this year, while also recognizing the risks and challenges facing economic operations[3] - The focus has shifted from external uncertainties to strengthening domestic economic activities, with a call to "concentrate efforts on doing our own business well" in response to international trade disputes[3] Policy Measures - The meeting proposed to continue and enhance macroeconomic policies, including more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, to fully unleash policy effects[4] - It emphasized the importance of improving the efficiency of fund usage while ensuring liquidity remains ample, with local government special bonds expected to continue to play a significant role[4] - The meeting reiterated the need to stimulate private investment and improve consumer demand through various measures, including long-term special bonds for consumption upgrades[5] Supply-Side Adjustments - The meeting highlighted the need for structural adjustments on the supply side, aiming to regulate chaotic competition among enterprises and promote orderly exit of outdated production capacity[5] - The "anti-involution" policy was emphasized again, which is expected to support industrial product prices and influence nominal economic trends in the medium term[6] - The anticipated adjustments in supply-side policies are expected to be more moderate compared to previous rounds, with a longer timeline for price normalization[6] Real Estate and Capital Markets - The meeting indicated a focus on high-quality urban renewal and maintaining stability in the real estate market, with a low probability of large-scale stimulus policies in the sector in the near future[7] - The capital market's positive outlook was reinforced, with a commitment to enhance its attractiveness and inclusivity, supporting a stable recovery trend[7] - The report suggests that the nominal GDP growth in the third quarter is expected to gradually bottom out, providing fundamental support for the equity market[8]

Group 1 - The decision to extend the US-China tariff truce for 90 days provides a temporary relief for the market, with the S&P 500 futures rising by 0.2% and Asian markets showing moderate gains [1] - European stocks faced pressure due to mixed corporate earnings, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index declining by 0.3%, primarily affected by disappointing results from the banking and automotive sectors [2] - Notable corporate performances included HSBC's stock dropping by 5% due to quarterly profits falling short of expectations, while UBS's stock rose by 3.7% after exceeding profit forecasts [2] Group 2 - Investors are focusing on upcoming key events, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and significant economic data releases, with expectations that the Fed will maintain current interest rates [3] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.15% to 98.78, while the Korean won appreciated by 0.8% following reports of trade discussions between US and South Korean officials [3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield remained stable at 4.32%, indicating a lack of significant movement in the bond market [4] Group 3 - The Nikkei 225 index closed down by 0.05%, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rose by 0.4%, reflecting mixed performance in Japanese markets [4] - Gold prices increased by 0.11% to $3,329.87, and WTI crude oil prices rose by 0.12% to $69.29, indicating a slight uptick in commodity markets [4]

Market Overview - The US stock market closed lower, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreating from historical highs as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy statement and reacted to disappointing corporate earnings [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 204.57 points to 44,632.99, a decrease of 0.46%; the S&P 500 dropped 18.91 points to 6,370.86, down 0.30%; and the Nasdaq Composite declined by 80.29 points to 21,098.29, a drop of 0.38% [1] US-China Economic Relations - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held constructive talks in Stockholm, focusing on US-China economic relations and macroeconomic policies [2] - Both sides emphasized the importance of a stable and healthy economic relationship, which is beneficial for their development goals and global economic stability [2] Corporate Earnings Performance - UnitedHealth reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.08, below the expected $4.59, and lowered its full-year EPS forecast to at least $16, causing its stock to drop by 7.5% [2] - Boeing's Q2 revenue was $22.75 billion, exceeding expectations, but reported a core EPS loss of $1.24, leading to a 4.4% decline in its stock [3] - Merck's Q2 sales were $15.81 billion, slightly above expectations, but its adjusted EPS of $2.13 was down year-over-year, resulting in a 1.7% stock decline [3] - UPS's stock plummeted by 10.6% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.55, slightly below expectations, and failing to provide full-year guidance [3] - Procter & Gamble's Q4 sales were $20.89 billion, with core EPS of $1.48, both slightly above expectations, but its growth forecast for FY2026 was below market expectations [3] - Novo Nordisk's stock fell approximately 22% after lowering its sales and profit outlook for FY2025 due to poor performance of its weight-loss drug Wegovy [4] Economic Data - The US trade deficit narrowed to $86 billion in June, a decrease of 10.8%, with imports down by 4.2% [4] - Job openings in the US fell to 7.44 million, below the expected 7.5 million, indicating stable labor demand [5] - Consumer confidence in the US rose in July, with the index increasing to 97.2, slightly above expectations [6] Upcoming Events - Investors are focused on the upcoming non-farm payroll report, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates [7] - Major tech companies, including Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, are set to release earnings this week, which are anticipated to significantly impact overall market trends [4]

Group 1 - Novo Nordisk significantly lowered its fiscal year performance guidance, reducing sales growth expectations for 2025 from 13-21% to 8-14% and EBIT profit growth from 16-24% to 10-16% due to lower GLP-1 sales expectations in the U.S. and asset impairment impacts [7][8] - Following the announcement, Novo Nordisk's stock price plummeted over 26% in pre-market trading, resulting in a market value loss exceeding $60 billion (approximately 430 billion RMB) within two hours [8] - The company appointed Maqziar Mike Dusseldorp as the new CEO [8] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market showed resilience, with the Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.37%, S&P 500 futures up 0.17%, and Dow futures up 0.02%, despite the volatility caused by Novo Nordisk [2] - Nvidia's stock price increased over 1% in pre-market trading, driven by demand rumors, indicating its continued leadership in the U.S. market [2] - The U.S. dollar strengthened, reaching a nearly five-week high, as market participants shifted focus from trade uncertainties to the resilience of the U.S. economy [4] Group 3 - Upcoming events include central bank meetings, earnings reports from major companies like Apple, and key economic data such as U.S. non-farm payrolls and PCE inflation, which are expected to create further market fluctuations [6] - The U.S. government’s tariff policy will face legal scrutiny on July 31, ahead of the August 1 tariff implementation date [6]

Core Insights - The rapid development of new industries, continuous emergence of new business formats, and strong investment momentum are contributing to the accumulation of new driving forces and the construction of new advantages in China's economy [1] Group 1: Express Delivery Industry Growth - China's express delivery volume surpassed 1 trillion pieces as of July 9, achieving this milestone 35 days earlier than in 2024, marking five consecutive years of exceeding 1 trillion pieces [1] - The express delivery sector has maintained high growth rates, transitioning from an average of 10 billion pieces per year to 10 billion pieces per month since reaching the 1 trillion mark in 2021 [1] Group 2: Consumer Market Dynamics - The 1 trillionth package was linked to a household appliance exchange program, highlighting the vibrant domestic demand market [2] - The sales generated from consumer goods exchange programs exceeded 2.9 trillion yuan, indicating a significant economic impact [2] - Online retail sales of physical goods reached 61.191 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 6%, accounting for 24.9% of total retail sales [2] Group 3: Regional Development and Coordination - The express delivery service has expanded into western regions, with the central and western areas' express delivery volume increasing by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] - The overall market is characterized by enhanced connectivity and efficiency, with over 10,000 passenger trains operating daily and nearly 34 billion yuan in online transactions [3] Group 4: Innovation and Sustainability - New technologies such as "aircraft + cold chain" and "unmanned vehicles + drones" are transforming the express delivery industry, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [4] - The digital industry saw a 9.3% increase in business revenue, while high-tech service investment grew by 8.6% in the first half of the year, indicating strong momentum for high-quality development [4] - The express delivery sector reflects both economic vitality and the continuous improvement of living standards, suggesting a robust path for China's economic high-quality development [4]