镍&不锈钢日报 管城瀚 2025-04-25 07:46:49 镍&不锈钢：多空交织下，预计恢复震荡走势 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.8-12.8 | 32.75% | 66.9% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | 5） | | 库存管 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现货下跌风 险 | 沪镍主力合约 卖出 | | 60% | 2 | | 理 | | | 场外/场内期 | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 4 月 24 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡运行 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价冲高回落，主力期价由昨日的 7.8 万一线回落至 7.7 万 一线。短期铜价已修复至 2 月的水平，精废价差有所走阔，产业支撑 较强但推动意愿会有所下降。美元指数大幅下挫后迎来反弹，一定 程度上也将抑制铜价上涨。短期关注 5 日均线支撑，预计期价将趋于 震荡运行。 沪铝 今日铝价围绕 1.99 万一线窄幅震荡。Mysteel 报道，华东现货市 场表现弱稳运行，铝价涨至近期高位，基差延续下调，持货商挺价控 制节奏 ...

Report Summary - Report Title: Nickel & Stainless Steel: Correction Nearing End, May Resume Sideways Movement [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] - Analysts: Xiayingying, Guanchenghan [1] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The intraday market continued a sideways and bullish trend. Fundamentally, the decline of ferronickel is nearing its end, but there is a lack of continuous upward momentum. Given the tariff situation, short - term trading is recommended. [3] Detailed Summaries Nickel Futures - The predicted price range of SHFE nickel is 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, with the current volatility (20 - day rolling) at 32.75% and the historical percentile of the current volatility at 66.9%. [2] - Inventory management strategies include shorting SHFE nickel futures based on inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines, shorting call options, and buying far - month SHFE nickel contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs. [2] - Procurement management strategies include shorting put options and buying out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan. [2] - The latest values and changes of SHFE nickel main - continuous, consecutive contracts, LME nickel 3M, trading volume, open interest, warrant quantity, and basis of the main contract are presented. [4][6] Stainless Steel Futures - The latest values and changes of stainless steel main - continuous, consecutive contracts, trading volume, open interest, warrant quantity, and basis of the main contract are presented. [7] Nickel Industry Inventory - The latest values and changes of domestic social inventory, LME nickel inventory, stainless steel social inventory, and nickel pig iron inventory are presented. [8] Other Data - There are also multiple charts showing trends of nickel and stainless steel futures prices, spot prices, production profit margins, and price premiums, etc. [10][12][14][16][19][21][22]

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On April 23, 2025, the main contract 2506 of Shanghai Nickel opened at 125,810 yuan/ton and closed at 126,240 yuan/ton, a change of 0.57% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 92,776 lots, and the open interest was 32,551 lots [2]. - The main contract 2506 of Shanghai Nickel fluctuated slightly throughout the morning and finally closed higher due to market sentiment. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, while the open interest remained basically flat. The red column area of the daily MACD enlarged, but the upward momentum was weak, and the short - term upward trend slowed down. There was a top divergence at around 126,400 on the 60 - minute line. The upward trend of the Shanghai Nickel market after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival has lasted for 9 trading days. Attention should be paid to the short - term pressure level of 126,000 - 128,000. In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan Nickel increased by about 125 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands varied. Most downstream enterprises were over - stocked last week, and the rigid demand for procurement weakened. The overall spot trading of refined nickel remained sluggish. The premium and discount adjusted due to the change of the main contract and were in a slow downward trend recently. The premium of Jinchuan Nickel remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 250 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipt volume was 25,336 (- 48.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 204,252 (- 2,178) tons [3]. Strategy - Due to the cooling of the trading willingness of refined nickel spot and the top divergence at around 126,400 on the 60 - minute line, it is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is around 122,000. There may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy is still to sell hedging on rallies. For single - side operations, it is mainly range - bound operations; there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [4]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On April 23, 2025, the main contract 2506 of stainless steel opened at 12,740 yuan/ton and closed at 12,790 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 146,037 lots, and the open interest was 132,737 lots [4]. - The main contract of stainless steel opened higher in the morning and then fluctuated throughout the day. The overall trend was still weaker than that of the Shanghai Nickel market. The daily line closed in a positive line. The trading volume of the 06 contract increased compared with the previous trading day, while the open interest decreased significantly. The green column area of the daily MACD decreased slightly, and the short - term downward force did not increase but still existed. Attention should be paid to the pressure level around 13,100. In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market quoted the same as the previous trading day in the morning. Affected by the market trend, market confidence remained low. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, most spot merchants mainly focused on recovering funds and maintained a wait - and - see attitude. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation remained the same as the previous trading day, and the transaction price was mostly around 970 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will remain stable in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,125 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 13,175 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B was 435 - 585 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron including tax changed by - 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 975.0 yuan/nickel point [5][6]. Strategy - After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, affected by the tariff policy, stainless steel was pushed below the 13,000 integer mark, but there is still support from the nickel - iron cost below. It may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy is still to sell hedging on rallies. For single - side operations, it is neutral; there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [7].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Short-term Impact, Slow Recovery - Guoxin Futures Non-ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated April 20, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Table of Contents - The report includes sections on market review, fundamental analysis, and future outlook [4] Group 3: Market Review - This section likely focuses on the historical price trends of nickel futures' main contracts, as indicated by the y - axis of the graph showing nickel futures closing prices (main contract) from 2020 to 2025 [7][8] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Upstream - The upstream analysis focuses on China's nickel ore port inventory and the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines [12][13] Midstream - Midstream analysis covers electrolytic nickel prices, nickel sulfate prices, nickel - iron monthly import volume, and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% nickel - iron [15][17][19] Downstream - Downstream analysis includes stainless - steel prices, stainless - steel futures positions, Wuxi stainless - steel inventory, power and energy - storage battery production, and new - energy vehicle production [21][23][25][28][30] Group 5: Future Outlook Macroeconomic Situation - In the US, Fed Chair Powell said that the announced tariff hikes will push up inflation and suppress economic growth, and the Fed will prioritize inflation control. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in June, and the Fed won't intervene in the recent sharp fluctuations in the US stock market. In China, the Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and high - tech manufacturing and IT service industries showed strong growth. Private investment turned positive [36] Nickel Market - The Shanghai nickel futures showed an upward trend this week, a recovery from last week's sharp drop. Spot trading of refined nickel was good this week. With the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, nickel ore supply is abundant, and nickel - iron prices have declined. Nickel sulfate prices are weak, and salt plants are in the red. Stainless - steel export orders have recovered well, but orders for US - bound products are almost at a standstill. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 134,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless - steel main contract is 12,400 - 13,600 yuan/ton [36]