Core Viewpoint - The August CPI turned negative at -0.4% year-on-year, primarily driven by a decline in food prices, influenced by high base effects from the previous year [2][3] - Core CPI continues to improve, reaching 0.9% year-on-year, supported by rising prices of gold and platinum jewelry, as well as services [4][5] CPI Analysis - The food price index fell by 4.3% year-on-year, with fresh vegetables, fruits, and pork contributing significantly to the decline [3][4] - The drop in vegetable and pork prices may not be sustained due to high base effects from last year, where prices surged due to extreme weather conditions [3][4] - The core CPI's increase is attributed to a 37.1% rise in gold jewelry prices and a 27.3% rise in platinum jewelry prices, contributing 0.31 percentage points to the core CPI [5][6] PPI Analysis - The PPI ended its downward trend, remaining flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, a narrowing of the drop by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [8][9] - The "anti-involution" effect is beginning to show, but its impact on prices is limited, with various industries experiencing reduced price declines [8][9] - Predictions indicate that the PPI may have reached its bottom in July, with future declines expected to narrow, although a positive trend in the next year remains challenging [9][10] Consumer Goods and Services - Prices of durable goods are showing improvement, with household appliances increasing by 4.6% year-on-year and communication tools by 0.8% [6][7] - The automotive sector is experiencing a reduction in price declines due to improved competition management, with fuel vehicle prices decreasing by 2.3% year-on-year [6][7] - Despite the rise in consumer prices for certain goods, the PPI for related industries has not improved, indicating a potential slowdown in demand [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The steel market's supply and demand may shift from weak to strong as the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches. The focus in the next two weeks is to observe the steel's apparent demand, and the futures price valuation is neutral [2]. - The short - term trading style of the double - silicon market changes rapidly, following the black sector. Fundamentally, the industry's profit has recovered, supply is increasing, and demand may be under pressure, with high inventory and de - stocking pressure [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is oscillating. Although the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, the downside of the futures market may be limited. There are opportunities for mid - line low - position long - position layout [5]. - Guinea's policy affects the market's expectation of iron ore supply increment. The short - term upward breakthrough of iron ore prices allows early low - position long - positions to take profit. The 01 - contract iron ore still has support below [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - On September 10, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605, HC2605, etc. and their changes were presented. The current futures price valuation is neutral, and the basis is briefly favorable for end - users' buying hedging. The market is waiting for the performance of this week's apparent demand [1][2]. - The trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and close the cash - and - carry arbitrage [7]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - The short - term market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the double - silicon market follows the black sector. The industry's profit has recovered, supply is increasing, and terminal demand may be difficult to improve significantly, with high inventory and de - stocking pressure [3]. - Industrial customers are advised to focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - On September 10, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of coking coal and coke and their changes were shown. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, but the futures market's previous low may have priced in 2 - 3 rounds of cuts. The downside may be limited. Mid - line investors can consider low - position long - position layout based on last week's low [1][5][7]. Iron Ore - Guinea's policy affects the market's expectation of iron ore supply increment. The iron ore price has broken through upward, and early low - position long - positions can take profit. In September, there is support from the demand side due to pre - holiday restocking. The 01 - contract iron ore still has support below [6]. - The trading strategy is to continue the low - position long - position idea [7].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with urban areas down 0.3% and rural areas down 0.6%[11] - Food prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year, while non-food prices increased by 0.5%[11] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9%, indicating steady demand growth[15] Group 2: PPI Insights - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month[11] - PPI showed a month-on-month improvement, ending an eight-month streak of negative growth[21] - Major industries, except for gas, pharmaceuticals, and food, experienced price improvements or recoveries[23] Group 3: Economic Implications - The low CPI and improving PPI create space for more aggressive macroeconomic policies, including active fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies[32] - The overall economic environment remains weak, with CPI underperforming seasonal expectations and PPI showing signs of recovery[30] Group 4: Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-U.S. policies[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - 8月全球通胀上升迹象初显，中国经济数据有压力但部分指标有回升，美国经济数据也有不同表现，美联储有望重启宽松周期 [2] - 商品分板块来看，黑色、有色、能源、化工、农产品、贵金属等各有特点和投资机会 [3] - 策略上，商品和股指期货建议工业品和贵金属逢低多配 [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - 中国7月出口同比增长7.2%，8月出口同比增长4.4%增速下降，进口同比增速放缓；8月CPI同比转降0.4%，核心CPI回升至0.9%，PPI同比降幅收窄至2.9% [2] - 美国8月ISM制造业指数连续第六个月萎缩，PPI环比-0.1%四个月来首次转负，上诉法庭裁定特朗普大部分全球关税违法 [2] - 鲍威尔讲话转鸽，美国8月新增非农和失业率不及预期，后续美联储有望重启宽松周期 [2] Commodity Analysis - 国内供给侧敏感板块为黑色和新能源金属，海外通胀预期关注贵金属和农产品 [3] - 黑色板块受下游需求预期拖累，有色板块供给受限未缓解，能源中期供给偏宽松，化工板块部分品种“反内卷”空间值得关注 [3] - 农产品短期受关税和通胀预期驱动，需等待基本面呼应信号和关注中美谈判扰动，美联储重启降息周期时贵金属迎来多配契机 [3] Strategy - 商品和股指期货方面，建议工业品和贵金属逢低多配 [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: A-shares are experiencing an oscillating rebound with the technology sector leading the way. After a significant rally, A-shares may enter a high-level oscillating pattern. Wait for the volatility to further converge before confirming a better entry point [2][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment remains weak due to the tightening of funds. The short - term bond market may still be sensitive to negative news. Investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to the movement of funds and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy [5][7]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical events and interest - rate cut expectations have been digested. Precious metals are in a high - level oscillating state. Gold is recommended to be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver can be traded in a band within the range of $40 - 42 [8][9][10]. - **Container Shipping Futures**: The market is expected to be weakly oscillating. Consider shorting the October contract or engaging in a spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [11][12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: The price is expected to oscillate. The short - term interest - rate cut boosts the financial attribute of copper, but the upside is limited. The long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support [13][17]. - **Alumina**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Mid - term, consider shorting at high prices. The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to oscillate widely around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand. The macro - environment provides support, while the fundamental improvement is not strong [21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the supply of scrap aluminum and the inflection point of inventory [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to oscillate. The supply is expected to be loose, and the price upside is limited, while the low inventory provides support [25][28]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to oscillate widely. The supply is tight, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the import of tin ore from Myanmar [28][31]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to adjust within a range. The macro - environment is generally stable, and the cost provides some support, but the mid - term supply is abundant [31][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range. The raw material cost provides support, but the demand is weak [34][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the market is affected by news [38][41]. - **Black Metals**: - **Steel**: The steel price is weak. The rebar and hot - rolled coil should pay attention to the support levels around 3100 and 3300 respectively. The steel supply and demand have not deteriorated to the negative feedback stage [41][43]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to oscillate and be bullish. The supply is expected to recover, and the demand will increase. The low - level port inventory provides support [45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is expected to oscillate. The coal mines are resuming production, and the supply and demand are easing. The price may continue to decline in September [47][49]. - **Coke**: The price is expected to oscillate. The first round of price cuts has been implemented, and there is still room for further cuts. The supply will gradually become loose [50][52]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Meal Products**: The high - yield expectation of US soybeans suppresses the price, but the domestic cost provides support. The downside of domestic meal products is limited [53][55]. - **Live Pigs**: The market supply - demand contradiction is limited. The price has limited room to fall, but the overall supply - demand pressure is still large [56][57]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply and demand of corn are weak, and the price is under pressure. The mid - term trend is weak [58][59]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Financial Futures**: - **Equity Index Futures**: A-shares showed an oscillating rebound on Wednesday. The TMT sector was strong, while the chemical sector corrected. The four major equity index futures contracts had mixed performances. The market is affected by domestic and overseas news, and the monetary policy in the second half of the year is crucial for the equity market [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose. The capital is tightening, and the bond market sentiment is weak. Pay attention to the central bank's subsequent attitude [5][6][7]. - **Precious Metals**: US 8 - month PPI data was lower than expected, and the demand for the 10 - year Treasury bond auction was strong. Gold and silver prices showed a high - level oscillation. The Fed's policy path and geopolitical events affect the price. Gold is recommended to be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver can be traded in a band [8][9][10]. - **Container Shipping Futures**: The spot price of container shipping continued to decline slowly. The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index showed different trends. The supply of container ships increased, and the demand was affected by the PMI of different regions. The futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating [11][12]. Commodity Futures - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: The spot price of copper declined slightly. The US 8 - month PPI data boosted the interest - rate cut expectation. The supply of copper concentrate was tight, and the demand was marginally improved. The inventory situation was mixed. The copper price is affected by the macro - environment and fundamentals, and is expected to oscillate [13][15][17]. - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina declined. The supply was high, the demand was weak, and the inventory was increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and consider shorting at high prices in the mid - term [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price of aluminum declined slightly. The supply of electrolytic aluminum was high, and the demand was marginally improved. The inventory situation was mixed. The aluminum price is affected by the macro - environment and fundamentals, and is expected to oscillate around the peak - season demand [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of aluminum alloy was stable. The supply was affected by the season, and the demand was marginally improved. The inventory was increasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and pay attention to the supply of scrap aluminum [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc declined. The supply of zinc ore was loose, and the demand was about to enter the peak season. The inventory situation was mixed. The zinc price is expected to oscillate, and the upside is limited [25][27][28]. - **Tin**: The spot price of tin declined slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and pay attention to the import of tin ore from Myanmar [28][30][31]. - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel declined. The supply of refined nickel was high, and the demand was stable in some sectors and weak in others. The inventory situation was mixed. The price is expected to adjust within a range [31][32][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel was stable. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The inventory was slowly decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, and pay attention to the raw material and demand [34][36][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate declined. The supply was affected by various factors, and the demand was stable. The inventory was decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, and pay attention to the news [38][39][41]. - **Black Metals**: - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The cost and profit situation of steel changed. The supply was affected by production restrictions and was expected to recover. The demand was in the off - season and was expected to improve seasonally. The inventory was increasing. The steel price is expected to be affected by the supply of coking coal [41][42][43]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore declined slightly. The futures price was stable. The supply decreased significantly, and the demand was expected to increase. The inventory situation was mixed. The price is expected to oscillate and be bullish [45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price of coking coal declined. The supply was affected by production restrictions and was expected to recover. The demand was expected to increase. The inventory was decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate and decline in September [47][48][49]. - **Coke**: The futures price of coke had a mixed performance. The first - round price cut was implemented, and there was still room for further cuts. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was expected to recover. The inventory situation was mixed. The price is expected to oscillate [50][51][52]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Meal Products**: The domestic spot price of soybean meal declined slightly, and the trading volume increased. The spot price of rapeseed meal was stable, and the trading volume was zero. The high - yield expectation of US soybeans and various supply - demand factors affected the price. The domestic cost provides support [53][54][55]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs declined slightly. The inventory of breeding sows increased slightly, and the profit of different breeding modes changed. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the price has limited room to fall [56][57]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn had different trends in different regions. The inventory of old - season corn was tight, and the new - season corn was about to be listed. The demand was weak. The short - term supply and demand are weak, and the mid - term trend is weak [58][59].

Group 1: Energy - Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent's November contract up 1.61%. Short - term geopolitical factors support prices, but Q4 and Q1 2024 will see a marginal increase in supply - demand surplus. Last week, US crude inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.939 million barrels. The strategy is to combine previous high - level short positions with out - of - the - money call options [1] - After a sharp decline last Friday, fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts continued to decrease on Wednesday, providing some support [21] - In the first week of September, asphalt shipments slowed down, but the impact is expected to be short - term. Special bonds issuance from August to October 2025 is expected to be substantial. Current data shows factory inventory accumulation and social inventory reduction, with the overall inventory level remaining flat. It's recommended to hold long positions [22] - Due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia, the international liquefied petroleum gas market remains strong. In early September, the arrival volume in Guangdong decreased due to typhoons, strengthening the support of rising import costs. Terminal product prices are rising, and the high -开工 rate pattern can be maintained. The spot has stronger support, but the high - volume warehouse receipts on the futures market limit the upward momentum, so it will likely trade in a range [23] Group 2: Precious Metals - The US August PPI annual rate was 2.6%, lower than the expected 3.3% and the lowest since June. Core PPI also fell short of expectations. Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates. The market focuses on tonight's US CPI data. Precious metals may remain strong before the Fed meeting, but be cautious about chasing highs after continuous rises [2] Group 3: Base Metals - Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad reached the integer mark. The weak US August PPI continued to fuel expectations of a Fed rate cut. Pay attention to domestic spot prices and social inventories. Copper prices are in a high - level oscillation, with resistance between 79,500 - 80,500 yuan this week [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. Downstream production started to pick up seasonally, and aluminum rod production increased month - on - month. Aluminum ingot inventory is likely to remain low this year, but the inflection point of inventory accumulation is not clear. On Monday, social inventory increased by 8,000 tons compared to last Thursday. Shanghai aluminum will test the resistance at 21,000 yuan in the short term [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai spot price is stable at 20,400 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increases enterprise costs. The cross - variety price difference between the spot and Shanghai aluminum has room to narrow further [5] - Alumina's operating capacity exceeds 96 million tons, at a historical high. Industry inventory is rising, and warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have increased to over 1.1 million tons. Supply surplus is evident, and spot prices are accelerating downward. After the futures and spot prices fall below the cost of high - cost production capacity in Shanxi and Henan, the market awaits feedback from the supply side, with support seen around the June low of 2,830 yuan [6] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is high. LME zinc inventory has dropped to a low of 51,000 tons, supporting the strong performance of LME zinc. The purchase of imported zinc ore is unprofitable, so smelters mainly buy domestic ore, and the domestic TC has not increased. The CZSPT has set the guidance price range for imported zinc concentrate TC at $120 - 140 per dry ton by the end of Q4. There is cost support for Shanghai zinc, but consumption is weak. With the continuous realization of mine - end increments, short - position holders are reducing positions at low levels, and the market lacks a bullish atmosphere, so it will likely trade in a low - level range [7] - LME lead inventory has declined from a high but remains as high as 239,000 tons, putting pressure on the external market. In China, large recycling aluminum plants in East China are about to resume production, and consumption is weak. The loss in lead imports is narrowing, increasing the expectation of overseas low - price supplies flowing into China. At low prices, recycling aluminum smelters are less willing to sell. Whether scrap battery prices can continue to fall is the key to breaking the downward space for Shanghai lead. Shanghai lead is expected to trade in a low - level range, with support at 16,600 yuan per ton [8] - Shanghai nickel weakened, and market trading was dull. Jinchuan nickel had a premium of 2,150 yuan, imported nickel had a premium of 300 yuan, and electrowon nickel had a premium of 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel iron is 947 yuan per nickel point. Recently, upstream price support has rebounded slightly, and the political situation has been used for further speculation, pushing up the price level of the nickel industry chain. Pure nickel inventory increased by 500 tons to 40,000 tons, nickel iron inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 29,200 tons, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 919,000 tons. Technically, the disturbance at the nickel ore end is easing, and it will likely trade in a low - level range [9] - Overnight, domestic and international tin prices rose after finding support at key levels. Overseas positions are still relatively concentrated, and domestic tin ingot production this month is low, supporting prices. However, the market is cautious about domestic tin consumption. It's recommended to hold a small number of low - level long positions based on the MA60 daily line [10] Group 4: Chemicals - Lithium carbonate prices continued to decline, and market trading was active. The resumption of production at a lithium mine under CATL pressured the market. Total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 140,000 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 3,900 tons to 39,000 tons, downstream inventory increased by 2,400 tons to 55,000 tons, and traders' inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 45,000 tons. After the rapid price cut, downstream buyers took the opportunity to purchase. The latest Australian ore price is $850. Technically, lithium prices are weak, waiting for stabilization [11] - Polycrystalline silicon futures declined with reduced positions to 52,800 yuan. The expectation of capacity management that previously drove the market up to over 56,000 yuan has not seen new progress. After profit - taking by long - position holders and a long - liquidation stampede in the past two days, market sentiment has further declined. Although there is still an expectation of production and sales restrictions in the polycrystalline silicon industry in September, the futures price is highly sensitive to capacity policy news. If no more incremental information is disclosed in the short term, the futures price may test the support at 52,000 yuan; the resistance at 55,000 yuan remains effective. It's expected to trade in a high - level range [12] - Industrial silicon rebounded after reaching the lower limit of the 8,300 yuan/ton range. In September, the supply is expected to increase by 5%. There are expectations of a decline in the production of downstream polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon, but the current inventory change shows that the decline in downstream demand is limited. It has clear support below and will likely trade in a range in the short term [13] - Urea futures prices continued to fall, and market trading sentiment was weak. Daily production decreased slightly, but the impact was limited. Agricultural demand is still in the off - season, and this year's fertilizer preparation progress is slow. Urea production enterprise inventory is higher than the same period last year. Port inventory increased slightly. The news of the Indian tender has limited impact on market sentiment, and downstream procurement is cautious, with supply and demand remaining loose [24] - Methanol futures traded in a low - level range. Port inventory continued to accumulate significantly, and no obvious inflection point was seen in the short term. The volume of imported arrivals remained high. Attention should be paid to whether the expectation of gas restrictions in Iran will be advanced. Inland methanol plant operating loads increased, downstream procurement volume increased slightly, and production enterprise inventory changed little. The near - term reality is still weak, but with the increase in the operating rate of coastal MTO plants and the expectation of downstream stocking before the National Day holiday, the market is expected to stabilize in a range [25] - As oil prices continued to rebound, the center of pure benzene prices moved up slightly. Weekly supply and demand both increased, port inventory increased slightly, processing margins rebounded, and the basis was weak. Based on the expectation of domestic maintenance and seasonal demand recovery, the supply - demand situation of the domestic unified benzene market may improve in Q3, so there's no need to be overly pessimistic. However, current downstream profitability is poor, and import expectations continue to put pressure on prices, so pure benzene prices are weak [26] - Currently, low prices in the north limit the upward space of styrene. However, due to the maintenance of a large plant in Ningbo in late September, downstream enterprises in the region have started to stock up in advance, delaying the inventory accumulation in East China ports this month and providing some support for short - term prices [27] - The supply of propylene and ethylene remains tight, and with no pressure on enterprise inventory, there is a strong willingness to raise prices. Downstream rigid demand buying has strengthened, and low - end transactions have significant premiums, with the actual transaction price center rising significantly. In the polyethylene spot market, the supply of goods is stable, but downstream orders are slow to follow up. The "peak season" demand improvement is not obvious, and factories may maintain rigid procurement. The market atmosphere is cautious. Polypropylene production enterprise factory prices are basically stable, the cost - side support of goods has little change, and holders continue to focus on selling. Some quotes are still lowered to promote transactions. Downstream factories are cautious about stocking up, and actual transactions focus on negotiation [28] - PVC futures showed an oscillating trend at night. The spot market remained sluggish, and downstream procurement enthusiasm was average. A new device of Qingdao Gulf started production, and a new device of Bohua Development is expected to increase its load by the end of the month, increasing supply pressure. The profit of chlor - alkali integration is acceptable, and cost support is not obvious. Both domestic and foreign demand is weak, and the industry continues to accumulate inventory. With the game between low valuation and weak reality, futures prices may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda futures fluctuated narrowly at night. The spot market showed differentiation, with prices in Shandong weakening and those in other regions strengthening. In Shandong, downstream acceptance decreased, and inventory increased. The rigid demand support from alumina is strong, and the operating rate of non - aluminum viscose staple fiber has recently increased, with rigid procurement. Plant maintenance and resumption coexist, and the operating rate increased slightly month - on - month. The overall inventory is low, and prices are relatively firm. It's expected that prices will not fall significantly, but with good profits, there is still supply pressure in the future. In addition, some downstream buyers are resistant to high prices, so futures prices are also unlikely to rise significantly and may trade in a wide - range oscillation pattern [29] - Overnight, PX prices continued to rebound, and PTA followed slightly, with the TA - PX price difference weakening. PX short - process profitability is good, but there is a lack of new capacity, and the output growth space is limited. Attention should be paid to the maintenance dynamics of existing plants. Inventory continued to decrease, but PTA processing margins and basis continued to weaken, mainly due to sufficient capacity and the recent restart of PX and PTA plants. The driving force for PTA prices still lies in raw materials. Terminal weaving orders increased, the operating rate of textile and dyeing increased slightly, and demand continued to improve. However, polyester filament inventory is moderately high. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking performance before the festival and the pace of polyester production increase. Before the National Day, downstream demand continues to improve. Consider the possibility of the relative valuation of PX/PTA against oil prices rising [30] - Overnight, ethylene glycol futures traded in a low - level range and closed with a doji. Domestic production continued to increase, and the expected weekly arrival volume increased slightly month - on - month. However, port inventory continued to decline at a low level, and the basis strengthened. There is new capacity pressure in the far - month contract, and the monthly spread of ethylene glycol is strong [31] - The supply - demand situation of short - fiber is stable, and prices mainly fluctuate with costs. In the short term, the basis and spot processing margins have rebounded, but the futures processing margin is weak. There is limited new capacity this year, and the recovery of peak - season demand boosts the short - fiber industry's expectations. Downstream enterprises are expected to stock up before the National Day. Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation, and long - short spreads can be bought at low levels, with the risk being lower - than - expected demand. Bottle - grade polyester chip downstream has rigid demand procurement, the basis has rebounded, spot profits have recovered, the futures processing margin has rebounded slightly, the operating rate has increased slightly, and factory inventory has increased slightly. Over - capacity is a long - term pressure, and the expected recovery space of the processing margin is limited [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products - As of the week ending September 7, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 64%, higher than the market expectation of 63% but slightly lower than the previous week's 65%. In the next two weeks, the weather in the US soybean and corn main - producing areas will be mainly dry, and the temperature will turn from low to high. Today's Malaysian palm oil MPOB report is bearish. In the short term, it's necessary to guard against palm oil prices driving soybean oil prices down, which may affect the oil - tank ratio. In China, today's soybean meal spot prices were stable to slightly weak. Currently, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient, and there is generally no problem with the supply in Q4. However, if Sino - US trade negotiations are still unresolved by the end of the year, there may be a supply gap for soybeans in Q1 next year. The market may continue to oscillate in the short term, and it's difficult to have a one - way market [36] - The Malaysian palm oil MPOB report shows that the August production met market expectations, exports were far lower than expected, imports were slightly lower than expected, domestic consumption was slightly higher than the upper limit of market expectations, and the ending inventory met market expectations. Overall, the report indicates poor export demand, limited supply pressure, and a month - on - month increase in ending inventory, with a large absolute inventory value. The report is slightly bearish. From the cumulative data from January to August, production growth is small, imports are increasing, domestic consumption is increasing, and export performance is poor. Due to poor export demand, the ending inventory has increased. The ending inventory is 2.2 million tons, compared with an average of 2 million tons in the past two years, indicating large inventory pressure in the Malaysian palm oil market. Since the demand for biodiesel in the Indonesian market has been increasing in recent years, its influence on global palm oil pricing is strengthening, so the impact of the Indonesian market on palm oil cannot be ignored. US soybean oil prices weakened. This week, Republican senators in the US proposed legislation to prevent the redistribution of exemptions for small refineries, and it's expected that this exemption issue will take time to observe. In the international market, the soybean - palm oil price difference has weakened, with soybean oil weaker than palm oil, which is expected to hit palm oil demand in the short term. Combining with this slightly bearish Malaysian palm oil report, it's necessary to guard against a short - term correction in palm oil prices. In the medium term, palm oil is in the seasonal production - reduction cycle. In the long term, the biodiesel policies of Indonesia and the US support the industrial demand for vegetable oils, and the problem of aging palm trees is prominent, which is expected to support palm oil prices. Palm oil can be considered for long - position allocation at low prices [37] - There is no new dynamic in Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. With the expectation of tight rapeseed imports, the coastal operating rate remains low, supporting the prices of rapeseed products. The inventory data of the end of July released by Statistics Canada met market expectations and was lower than the average of recent years. This week, attention should be paid to the adjustment of the US Department of Agriculture report on oilseed supply and demand. Next week, Statistics Canada will adjust the crop yield forecast again. This model data takes into account the weather in August compared with the previous forecast. Overall, rapeseed product prices may rise slightly in a range in the short term [38] - The main contract of domestic soybean futures increased positions significantly, and prices broke through support and reached a new low. On Tuesday, the transaction rate of the soybean auction by Sinograin was significantly lower, and market transactions were sluggish. Sinograin will hold another soybean auction this Friday, and the market expects the auction reserve price to be lowered. In the short term, the domestic soybean market shows an oversupply situation. This year, the weather in the main domestic soybean - producing areas is generally favorable, and the harvest expectation is good. As new domestic soybeans are about to be listed, there are concerns about future supply pressure. Continuous attention should be paid to policies and the yield performance of new soybeans [39] - Yesterday, the supply of Shandong corn in the spot market was relatively loose, with 457 trucks remaining in the morning, and the purchase price was lowered. In recent days, the opening price of new - season corn in Northeast China has increased compared with last year, and the carry - over inventory in the northern port is low. Currently, traders have certain expectations for new - season corn. On September 12, Sinograin will hold another imported corn auction, with a total of about 190,000 tons. It's

Group 1 - The effects of anti-involution policies are beginning to show in the PPI data, with commodity price increases leading to price recovery in downstream industries [1][3] - In August, the CPI year-on-year growth rate was -0.4%, while the PPI year-on-year growth rate was -2.9%, indicating a steady recovery in inflation [1][2] - The core CPI has shown resilience, with a significant year-on-year increase, despite food prices being a major drag due to the pig cycle [1][2] Group 2 - Food price declines are primarily driven by pork and egg prices, with the pig cycle in a bottoming phase and high inventory levels affecting egg prices [2] - The PPI data reflects a recovery in upstream mining prices, with coal mining and black metal industries showing month-on-month increases of 2.8% and 2.1% respectively [3] - The anti-involution policy focuses on addressing overcapacity caused by "herd investment" in downstream industries, aiming for more sustainable price recovery [3]

报告导读： 反内卷政策效果在 PPI 中初步显现，大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游行业的价 格修复，传导效果较为明显。猪周期拖累 CPI 再次转负，但服务价格韧性，消费价格仍处 于稳步回升的通道。 8 月 CPI 同比增速 -0.4% ，环比 0.0% ； PPI 同比增速 -2.9% ，环比回升至 0.0% 。 8 月通胀保持稳步修复。在猪周期影响下，食品价格对 CPI 形成 主要拖累，但核心服务价格保持韧性，核心 CPI 同比大幅回升。反内卷政策效果在 8 月 PPI 数据已有所显现，采掘工业价格动能回正，黑色链条也出现止跌 回稳的迹象，同时大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游加工业，后续观察涨价的持续性与弹性。 CPI ：服务表现韧性，食品形成拖累 PPI ：反内卷政策效果初步显现 反内卷政策效果将持续释放。 与 2015 年供给侧改革不同，本轮反内卷政策行动聚焦中下游行业"羊群投资"和盲目扩张造成的产能过剩，政策更加注重指引 企业通过规范竞争淘汰产能，并强化监督地方政府的投资推广行为，而非简单通过行政干预快速达到去产能的目的。这使得本轮价格回升的动能或稍显迟缓， 但基础却更加牢固。 风险提示： 地产尾部压力依然存在、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Current price data remains weak. The significant increase in gold prices is the main factor supporting the upward trend of core CPI year - on - year growth, while most other sub - items perform weaker than the seasonal average. The narrowing of the PPI decline in August is mainly due to the low base effect. The effectiveness of the national unified market construction policy is mainly concentrated in upstream industries such as coal, steel, and photovoltaic. The ineffective recovery of domestic demand may hinder the PPI's year - on - year recovery. The sustainability of the current industrial price increase and its price transmission effect on downstream industries depend on the improvement of social terminal demand [4][35]. - The bond market may gradually recover in a volatile manner. The decreasing correlation between stocks and bonds and the weakening impact of commodities on the bond market mean that the adjustment pressure on bonds is gradually alleviating. Given the continuous asset shortage, loose funds, and the downward trend of the entity's return rate, the downward trend of broad - spectrum interest rates such as loan interest rates remains unchanged. The over - increase in interest rates at the beginning of the year has been gradually digested. Therefore, there is limited room for further interest rate adjustment, and the bond market will gradually return to the fundamentals and the asset shortage situation. However, this return may not be smooth but rather a gradual recovery in a volatile manner. It is recommended to adopt a dumbbell - shaped operation strategy, combining short - term credit/certificates of deposit with long - term interest rates, and pay attention to the opportunities for high - selling and low - buying in long - term interest rate positions. The long - term bond interest rate may decline more smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter, and interest rates are still expected to reach new lows this year [5][36]. 3. Summary by Related Content CPI Analysis - **Overall CPI**: In August, the year - on - year decline of CPI widened, dropping from flat to - 0.4%, indicating weak consumer - end prices. The year - on - year decline of core CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%, and the month - on - month figure remained flat. Gold prices, oil prices, and summer consumption are the main factors driving the CPI's year - on - year performance. After excluding the "other goods and services" sub - item, the overall price level remains weak [1][8]. - **Other Goods and Services Sub - item**: In August, this sub - item continued to grow at a high level, with a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, 0.6 percentage points higher than in July. The high - speed growth may be supported by the rising gold prices. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic gold futures prices was 37.1%, slightly down 0.7 percentage points from July [2][16]. - **Food CPI**: In August, the year - on - year decline of food CPI widened, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.3%, 2.7 percentage points more than the previous month, mainly due to the decline in vegetable, egg, and fruit prices. The month - on - month increase was 0.5%, lower than the seasonal level by about 1.1 percentage points. The low pork prices are the main reason for the widening of the CPI's year - on - year decline [21]. - **Non - food CPI**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of non - food CPI increased to 0.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while the month - on - month figure decreased by 0.1%. The increase in the year - on - year growth rate of summer service prices may be the main reason [23]. PPI Analysis - **Overall PPI**: In August, the year - on - year decline of PPI was 2.9%, narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, the first narrowing since March this year, mainly due to the low base effect of the previous year and the narrowing decline of coal processing and ferrous metal smelting and rolling industries. The month - on - month figure remained flat compared to the previous month. The prices of domestic industrial products showed a mixed trend in August [3][29]. - **Sub - industries of PPI**: Some raw material industries' prices changed from decline to increase, such as coal processing, coal mining and washing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling, and glass manufacturing. However, the prices of the petroleum and some non - ferrous metal industries declined month - on - month due to input factors [3][29]. - **PPI of Means of Livelihood**: In August, the year - on - year decline of the PPI of means of livelihood was 1.7%, 0.1 percentage points wider than the previous month. Among them, the prices of clothing remained flat, the growth rate of general daily necessities slowed down, the decline of durable consumer goods widened, and the decline of food prices narrowed [30].

CPI Analysis - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, lower than the expected -0.2%, marking a six-month low[1] - Food prices contributed to the CPI decline, with a year-on-year drop of 4.3%, impacting CPI by 0.8 percentage points[2] - Core CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year, the highest in 18 months, indicating a continuous increase for six months[2] PPI Analysis - August PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous -3.6%, aligning with expectations[3] - PPI ended an eight-month decline, with a month-on-month stabilization, reflecting seasonal averages[3] - The "anti-involution" effect led to price increases in coal, black metals, and glass industries, contributing to the PPI improvement[3] Future Outlook - September CPI is likely to remain negative, with an annual average around 0% due to ongoing pressures from energy and pork prices[5] - PPI is expected to continue narrowing its decline in September, but weak export prices and insufficient consumer demand will constrain recovery[5] - The overall economic environment suggests a cautious approach, with policies expected to support but not significantly boost growth in the short term[6]