Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shoukai Co., Ltd. has experienced significant volatility, with a notable increase in trading volume and a series of trading risk warnings issued by the company, indicating potential short-term risks associated with rapid price increases [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Stock Performance - On September 16, Shoukai Co., Ltd. hit the daily limit up for the ninth time in ten trading days, reaching a midday price of 6.67 yuan per share [2]. Trading Activity - The company reported a significant increase in trading volume, turnover rate, and the number of shareholders, alongside some institutional shareholders reducing their stakes [2]. Risk Warnings - This marks the seventh trading risk warning issued by Shoukai Co., Ltd. in September, highlighting concerns over the rapid price increase and potential for subsequent declines [2]. Market Perception - The recent stock price movements are attributed to market speculation, viewing Shoukai Co., Ltd. as a "shadow stock" of the robotics star company, Yushu Technology [2]. Clarification Announcement - On September 13, Shoukai Co., Ltd. clarified its investment relationship with Yushu Technology, stating that its indirect stake through a subsidiary is approximately 0.3%, with no control or influence over the fund's decision-making [2].

Core Insights - The "2025 China Top 500 Enterprises" list highlights Shenzhen's strong performance, with 27 companies making the list, including 8 in the top 100, showcasing the city's innovation and growth potential in technology and advanced manufacturing [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - Shenzhen's top companies include Ping An (12th), Huawei (23rd), BYD (26th), Tencent (31st), and others, reflecting a diverse industry presence in finance, technology, manufacturing, and logistics [2][6] - Huawei reported a revenue of 427.039 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a net profit of 37.195 billion yuan, leading the domestic smartphone market with a 18.1% share [5] - BYD achieved a revenue of 371.281 billion yuan, with a net profit of 15.511 billion yuan, becoming the global leader in new energy vehicle sales [6] Group 2: R&D Investment - The total R&D investment of the top 500 companies reached 1.73 trillion yuan, with an average R&D intensity of 1.95%, while Shenzhen companies exceeded this average significantly [1][2] - Huawei's R&D investment for 2024 is projected to be 179.7 billion yuan, accounting for 20.8% of its revenue, with over 1249 billion yuan invested in the past decade [7] - BYD's R&D investment for 2024 is expected to be 54.2 billion yuan, representing 6.97% of its revenue, surpassing Tesla's R&D intensity [7] Group 3: Globalization Strategy - Shenzhen companies are increasingly adopting globalization as a strategy for growth, with Huawei establishing 16 R&D centers globally and expanding its cloud services [9][10] - BYD's overseas sales reached 470,000 units, a 132% increase, with significant revenue growth from international markets [9][10] - The global expansion of Shenzhen companies is seen as essential for overcoming domestic market challenges and achieving sustainable revenue growth [10]

Group 1: Industry Index Pool Construction - The report outlines the construction of an industry index pool that combines investability and representativeness, focusing on passive products tracking strong industry attributes [10][12]. - Since 2020, the scale of industry ETFs has experienced explosive growth, increasing from 85.8 billion yuan at the end of 2019 to over 310 billion yuan by the end of 2020, and approaching 900 billion yuan by August 2025 [10]. - The report categorizes various industry ETFs, highlighting that TMT, financial real estate, and pharmaceutical sectors have surpassed 100 billion yuan in ETF scale [10]. Group 2: Economic Prosperity Investment Practices - The report discusses the calculation of expected ROE growth for industries based on analysts' profit forecasts, comparing two fiscal years (FY1 and FY2) [20][21]. - It emphasizes that the FY2 grouping shows stronger monotonicity in performance compared to FY1, indicating better returns for the former [23][24]. - The backtesting period for the economic prosperity factor spans from January 1, 2018, to September 12, 2025, with a focus on marginal changes in industry index prosperity [27]. Group 3: Economic Trend Resonance Strategy - The economic trend resonance strategy combines fundamental marginal improvements with capital consensus, utilizing trend factors to quantify market sentiment [36][38]. - The constructed economic trend resonance portfolio has achieved an annualized return of 12.33% since 2018, outperforming the CSI 800 index by 11.13% [40][42]. - The portfolio's monthly excess return rate stands at 64%, with a profit-loss ratio of 1.30 [45]. Group 4: Economic Trend and Crowding Avoidance Strategy - The strategy integrates economic trend analysis with crowding avoidance to mitigate risks associated with overheated trading [49]. - The three-dimensional strategy has yielded an annualized return of 12.80% since 2018, exceeding the CSI 800 index by 11.60% [52][54]. - The portfolio's monthly excess return rate is 62%, with a profit-loss ratio of 1.47 [57]. Group 5: Current Industry Characteristics - As of August 2025, the report identifies industries that align with the economic trend resonance and crowding avoidance strategy, including the transportation index, home appliances, livestock, media, and oil and gas sectors [60]. - The expected growth rates for these sectors range from 1.1% to 9.6%, with varying levels of crowding and valuation metrics [60].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the current capital market trend is supported by three core pillars: the global transformation, financial reform, and strategic adjustments towards the U.S. [2][9][11] Group 1: Understanding the Macro Logic of the Current Market - The current market trend is underpinned by three main pillars: the century-long transformation, financial reform, and strategic adjustments towards the U.S. [2] - The core contradiction of the Chinese economy lies externally, with globalization being a key factor in overcoming challenges [3][8]. Group 2: The Three Core Pillars - **Pillar One: Globalization and Economic Transformation** - China's industrial capacity expansion has been driven by industrialization, urbanization, and globalization, with China accounting for approximately 17% of the global population and 34% of industrial output [3]. - The current phase of these processes shows a slowdown in demand, leading to excess capacity [3][4]. - Embracing globalization can help alleviate supply-demand contradictions and stabilize the real estate market by expanding the customer base beyond domestic demand [5][6][7]. - **Pillar Two: Financial Reform** - Since the 20th National Congress, the capital market's pivotal role has been reinforced, with significant policy changes highlighting the importance of finance [9][10]. - The restructuring of financial institutions indicates a historical elevation of the capital market's status within the national financial system [9][10]. - **Pillar Three: Risk Appetite and U.S. Strategy** - A shift in China's strategy towards the U.S. has positively influenced investor risk appetite, with a more proactive approach since late 2024 [11][12]. - Increased transparency regarding China's industrial advancements has bolstered investor confidence in the economic outlook [12]. Group 3: Market Trend and Phases - The market is expected to undergo two phases: an initial valuation-driven phase followed by a fundamental-driven phase [14][17]. - The first phase focuses on valuation expansion, driven by the competition for global economic order, with three main lines of focus: hard power sectors, technology breakthroughs, and leading manufacturing firms expanding internationally [15][16]. - The second phase will see a shift towards fundamental improvements across various sectors, reflecting a broader market engagement [17]. Group 4: Current Market Stage Assessment - The overall valuation is reasonable, with major indices at historical median levels, indicating no widespread overvaluation [18][20]. - The market capitalization of A-shares remains below China's GDP share, suggesting low financial bubble risks [20]. - Investor sentiment is stable, with no signs of panic, and institutional holdings are diversified, reducing the risk of market crashes [22]. - There is significant potential for additional capital inflow from the bond market and foreign investments, enhancing market liquidity [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - policies continue to exert force, and structural adjustment is advancing steadily. In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate is not expected to decline significantly. Structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise. Bond yields and the stock market are expected to rise continuously. [1][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overall Situation - **Production**: In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month. The equipment manufacturing industry continued to support industrial production, with its added value increasing by 8.1% year - on - year. The high - end trend of the manufacturing industry continued, and the added value of high - tech manufacturing increased by 9.3% year - on - year. [3] - **Consumption**: In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 396.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. The third batch of consumer goods "trade - in" policy funds were issued, and the retail sales of related "trade - in" goods continued to grow rapidly. The catering revenue stabilized and rebounded. [4] - **Investment**: From January to August, fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year. The "two - heavy" construction advanced steadily, with infrastructure investment increasing by 2.0% year - on - year. Real estate investment accelerated to find the bottom, with the real estate development investment decreasing by 12.9% year - on - year, and the sales area and sales amount of newly built commercial housing both declining. The National Real Estate Climate Index further declined to 93.05. [5] Market - After the economic data was released at 10:00, the bond market continued the repair market under the support of fundamentals, and the long - term yield fluctuated downward. After the futures closed at noon, the long - term yield rose rapidly, possibly due to the intensification of policies to expand service consumption. [6] Bond Market View - With the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. For stock and bond allocation, the view is maintained that in the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate will not decline significantly, structural issues such as prices will improve, and bond yields and the stock market will rise continuously. [7]

Industry Overview Upstream - PTA and urea prices in the chemical industry have declined [2] - Egg prices in the agricultural industry have continued to rise [2] Midstream - The PX operating rate in the chemical industry has increased [3] - Coal consumption in power plants in the energy industry has increased [3] Downstream - There has been a slight improvement in the sales of commercial housing in first-tier cities in the real estate industry [4] - The number of international flights in the service industry has continued to decline [4] Key Industry Indicators (as of September 15) Agriculture - Corn spot price: 2300 yuan/ton, -0.31% year-on-year [38] - Egg spot price: 7.7 yuan/kg, 11.30% year-on-year [38] - Palm oil spot price: 9400 yuan/ton, -0.57% year-on-year [38] - Cotton spot price: 15255.7 yuan/ton, -1.05% year-on-year [38] - Average pork wholesale price: 19.9 yuan/kg, -1.09% year-on-year [38] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper spot price: 81000 yuan/ton, 1.39% year-on-year [38] - Zinc spot price: 22212 yuan/ton, 0.38% year-on-year [38] - Aluminum spot price: 21056.7 yuan/ton, 1.84% year-on-year [38] - Nickel spot price: 123533.3 yuan/ton, 0.97% year-on-year [38] Black Metals - Iron ore spot price: 808 yuan/ton, 1.58% year-on-year [38] - Wire rod spot price: 3315 yuan/ton, 0.08% year-on-year [38] - Glass spot price: 14 yuan/square meter, 0.00% year-on-year [38] Others - Natural rubber spot price: 15133.3 yuan/ton, -1.84% year-on-year [38] - China Plastic City price index: 794, -0.49% year-on-year [38] - WTI crude oil spot price: 62.7 dollars/barrel, 1.33% year-on-year [38] - Brent crude oil spot price: 67 dollars/barrel, 2.27% year-on-year [38] - Liquefied natural gas spot price: 3876 yuan/ton, -0.56% year-on-year [38] - Coal price: 775 yuan/ton, -0.51% year-on-year [38] - PTA spot price: 4631.7 yuan/ton, -1.87% year-on-year [38] - Polyethylene spot price: 7380 yuan/ton, -0.07% year-on-year [38] - Urea spot price: 1665 yuan/ton, 2.27% year-on-year [38] - Soda ash spot price: 1262.5 yuan/ton, 0.00% year-on-year [38] - National cement price index: 130.9, 0.75% year-on-year [38] - Real estate building materials composite index: 113.2 points, 0.09% year-on-year [38] - National concrete price index: 92.1 points, -0.86% year-on-year [38] Industry Events Production Industry - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers issued an initiative to standardize the payment of accounts payable by vehicle manufacturers to suppliers, and many car companies responded positively [1] Service Industry - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a notice to deepen the reform of cross-border investment and financing foreign exchange management and improve cross-border investment and financing convenience [1]

Consumption Data - In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, slowing from 3.7% in the previous month[2] - The retail sales growth was negatively impacted by a 2.3% decline in tobacco and alcohol sales, which reduced the overall growth rate by 0.03 percentage points[7] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly stimulated sales in home appliances and cultural office supplies, while oil and petroleum products saw negative growth due to global economic conditions[2] Real Estate Market - The sales area of commercial housing in August was 57.44 million square meters, down 11% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.03 percentage points compared to the previous month[17] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the market and low consumer confidence[2] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate development funding sources was 8%, with personal mortgage loans down 10.5%[28] Investment Trends - From January to August 2025, fixed asset investment totaled 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, slowing by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 2%, but the overall investment environment remains challenging due to reduced government spending and ongoing market adjustments[30] - Manufacturing investment growth was recorded at 5.1%, but this was a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in industrial investment[36] Economic Outlook - Industrial production growth for January to August was 6.2%, maintaining stability but facing challenges from insufficient domestic demand[39] - The urgency for macroeconomic adjustments has increased, with potential policy focuses on interest rate cuts and increased issuance of government bonds[44] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic macroeconomic policies and unexpected credit events[47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The economic growth in August continued to slow down, with industrial production, consumption, and investment all showing signs of weakness. Insufficient effective demand remains the core contradiction [1][8]. - Given the slowdown in economic growth, macro - policies need to play a role in promoting economic recovery. Fiscal, consumption, and real - estate policies are expected to be further adjusted [2][9]. - The bond market is supported by insufficient effective demand and weak fundamental recovery, but potential risks from subsequent policy efforts need to be noted. Bond market fluctuations may depend more on marginal changes in institutional behavior and capital flows [3][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 8 月经济数据：经济增长再放缓 - In August, industrial增加值 was 5.2% year - on - year (expected 5.7%, previous value 5.7%), social retail sales were 3.4% year - on - year (expected 3.8%, previous value 3.7%), and fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year was 0.5% (expected 1.3%, previous value 1.6%). Manufacturing, infrastructure, and real - estate investment all declined [8]. 工业生产韧性尚存，环比动能略降 - In August, the year - on - year growth of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.2%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the cumulative growth from January to August was 6.2%. The growth of the service industry production index was 5.6%, slightly down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [14]. - The year - on - year growth rates of the electrical machinery and chemical industries increased significantly, while those of the special equipment and transportation equipment industries declined. The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries was 8.1% and 9.3% respectively, 2.9 and 4.1 percentage points faster than the overall industrial added value [16][17]. - The output of emerging products such as robot reducers, industrial robots, 3D printing equipment, and industrial control computers and systems increased rapidly [17]. 消费增速延续回落，增量政策箭在弦上 - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, 0.3 percentage points lower than in July, the lowest increase this year. The growth rate of commodity retail sales decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the growth rate of catering revenue increased by 1.0 percentage point but remained at a relatively low level [19]. - The effect of the "trade - in" policy weakened, and the subsidy method adjustment in some areas affected the policy's immediate pulling effect. The weak performance of commodity sales, especially the sluggish automobile consumption, also dragged down the overall retail sales [21][22]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on expanding service consumption policies [10][24]. 投资增速出现下行，继续低位磨底 - From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 0.5%, 1.1 percentage points lower than from January to July, showing a downward trend. The investment structure was characterized by "slowing manufacturing, declining infrastructure, and real - estate drag" [25]. - Manufacturing investment cumulative year - on - year was 5.1%. The policy effect of large - scale equipment renewal continued to be released, with equipment purchase investment growing rapidly. However, in the short term, corporate investment motivation may decline, and corporate medium - and long - term loans increased less year - on - year [28]. - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) cumulative year - on - year was 2.0%, with the construction progress of major traditional infrastructure projects slowing down. The high - temperature and rainy weather in August affected construction, and the capital in - place situation of some projects may not meet expectations due to local government debt - resolution pressure [28][29]. - Real - estate investment cumulative year - on - year was - 12.9%. The decline in sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing widened, and real - estate development investment reached the largest decline this year. The real - estate market was still in the stage of "trading price for volume", and real - estate relaxation policies may need to be actively implemented in the second half of the year [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the A-share market, highlighting the fluctuations in major indices and the notable movements in specific sectors such as robotics, logistics, and cooling technology for AI chips. Market Performance - The three major indices in the A-share market experienced slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.32% [3] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.48 trillion yuan, a decrease of 251 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 2800 stocks rising [4] Sector Highlights - Robotics concept stocks surged, with companies like Hanwei Technology and Junsheng Electronics hitting the daily limit [3] - The unified market concept stocks showed strong performance, particularly in the internet e-commerce, logistics, and auto parts sectors, while small metals, aquaculture, film and television, and battery sectors declined [3] - The liquid cooling server concept gained traction, with companies like Chunzong Technology achieving a six-day five-limit rise, driven by Nvidia's push for new cooling components for AI GPUs [9] Notable Stock Movements - Significant stock movements included: - Runhe Materials up by 20% to 48.78 yuan - Zhongshi Technology up by 12.65% to 39.54 yuan - Yinlun Holdings up by 10.01% to 39.91 yuan [11] - The tourism and hotel sectors also saw gains, with companies like Caesar Travel hitting the daily limit and Huazhan Hotel rising over 6% [12] Additional Market Insights - The A-share market opened with all three major indices in the green, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component up by 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.2% [14] - The Hong Kong market opened positively, with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.34% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.45% [16]

罗志恒、马家进（罗志恒系粤开证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 摘要 8月生产、消费、投资等主要经济指标的同比增速呈现放缓态势，经济承压主要是由于前期支撑增长的因素正在逐步回落，同时房地产进一步下行拖累经 济，三季度经济增速有可能低于5%。此前，抢出口和转出口带动出口强劲，以旧换新政策带动消费回升，大规模设备更新和财政靠前发力支撑投资，共 同推动了上半年的经济增长。然而，这些因素的"透支效应"开始显现：随着"抢出口"行为的消退，出口增速放缓；消费品以旧换新政策对耐用消费品的刺 激作用边际递减，导致社零消费增速回落；同时，房地产市场持续低迷、制造业投资动能减弱以及地方财政紧平衡，对整体投资形成拖累。但当前经济也 呈现出一些积极因素，例如核心CPI同比回升以及股市持续上涨。 展望未来，下阶段经济增长面临的风险挑战进一步增多，四季度经济增速或回落至5%以下。从外部看，中美贸易关系的未来走向充满不确定性，同时美 国通胀形势可能扰动美联储的降息进程，对全球经济和资本市场造成不利冲击。从内部看，去年四季度政策拉动下的高基数将对今年同期的同比增速形成 压力；更为关键的是，房地产价格仍有下行压力，不仅直接抑制了房地 ...