Oil - The external market was closed due to the Christmas holiday, while domestic oil prices fluctuated. Russian Black Sea port attacks and adverse weather have slowed repair progress, leading to a 14-month low in Kazakhstan's December CPC mixed oil exports. Despite a decline in drilling and fracturing activities in the US shale oil industry, US crude oil production remains high due to production adjustments lagging behind. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela have raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, but the overall market fundamentals remain loose, suggesting a shift in market focus from geopolitical issues to a long-term supply-demand balance that may lead to a downward adjustment in price levels [1]. Precious Metals - The external market was closed for Christmas, while domestic gold and silver continued a strong trend. The adjustment of minimum opening quantities and trading limits by the Guangqi Exchange has occurred. The prospect of Federal Reserve easing and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals, with various types reaching new highs, leading to increased market volatility and the need for position control [2]. Copper - The Shanghai copper night market opened high, briefly rising to 98,000. Domestic spot divergence signals have strengthened, with Shanghai and Guangdong discounts expanding to 330 and 185 yuan respectively. SMM social warehouse increased by 25,200 tons to 193,600 tons. Short-term domestic supply and demand pressures may lead to greater adjustment pressure on copper prices, but tight raw material supply may transmit to domestic refined copper, benefiting exports. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions or adjust the holding position to 95,000 [3]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum market showed a strong fluctuation. The fundamental contradictions in the aluminum market are limited, with social warehouses fluctuating narrowly and apparent demand year-on-year being weak, leading to an expansion of spot discounts. The macro sentiment continues to drive precious metals and various non-ferrous metals to new highs, with Shanghai aluminum primarily following the upward trend and testing previous high resistance levels [4]. Alumina - Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, with a persistent oversupply situation and rising industry inventories. The average complete cost in Shanxi and Henan is 2,850-2,900 yuan, while the spot index has dropped to around 2,700 yuan, indicating profitability at cash cost calculations. A Guinea mining company has lowered its first-quarter long-term contract price by $5, suggesting potential for cost reduction in alumina. The weak trend in alumina is expected to continue before any significant production cuts, with a larger basis for spot price declines [5]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc operates independently with narrow fluctuations, supported by a strong bottom. The domestic consumption outlook for January is not pessimistic, and the price range is expected to rise from December, projected between 22,800-23,800 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - The market remains at a low level, with domestic aluminum social inventories below 20,000 tons and trading activity being average. The import window remains open, with overseas pressure continuing to transmit to the domestic market. Shanghai aluminum is still in a cost and consumption tug-of-war, with a price range expected between 17,000-17,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market has seen a pullback, with active trading and significant stop-losses leading to market consolidation. Recent news from the Indonesian nickel ore conference has sparked market interest, with a significant reduction in nickel ore quotas for 2026. Current spot prices for high nickel iron are at 888 yuan per nickel point, with upstream price rebounds weakening support, leading to a cautious short-term outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and rose, with active market trading. Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices exceeded 110,000 yuan, with a price difference of 2,650. Despite high prices, market confidence in maintaining these levels is low, leading to limited trading enthusiasm. Total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 110,400 tons, with downstream inventory also declining. The latest Australian mining price is $1,385, maintaining strong pricing. The overall market fundamentals for lithium carbonate remain strong, with short positions under pressure [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures surged above 60,000 yuan/ton. Expectations for tighter industry production quotas in 2026 and collective production cut plans from some companies have strengthened market sentiment. Current mainstream transaction prices are stable between 51,000-53,000 yuan/ton, primarily driven by replenishment demand. Recent increases in silver prices have pushed up non-silicon costs for battery cells, with pressures transmitted upward. The market is advised to monitor the effectiveness of breaking through the 60,000 yuan/ton level [12]. Steel - Steel prices continued to decline, with a slight drop in rebar demand and a small increase in production. Hot-rolled demand is recovering, with inventory reduction accelerating. Iron water production continues to decline, gradually alleviating supply pressure, while steel mill profits are marginally improving. The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with limited rebound momentum expected [13][14]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices fluctuated overnight, with strong global shipments expected as year-end mine output increases. Domestic port arrivals are also strong, leading to significant inventory accumulation. Demand remains low in the off-season, but previous reductions in iron water production have stabilized prices. The overall fundamentals for iron ore are loose, with short-term price movements expected to remain volatile [14]. Urea - Urea production companies are significantly reducing inventory, leading to improved market sentiment and transactions. Daily production continues to decline due to environmental restrictions, with slight adjustments in industrial downstream demand. The short-term market for urea is expected to strengthen [22]. Methanol - Methanol prices slightly declined overnight due to recovering import unloading speeds and weakening inland demand, leading to significant port inventory accumulation. The overall market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with potential upward drivers in the medium to long term [23]. PX & PTA - PX prices continue to rise, with PTA following suit. Short-term PX supply is expected to increase due to plant restarts, while downstream demand may decline around the Spring Festival. Overall, the strong expectations for PX remain, with limited upward space in the short term [28].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Shengda Resources plans to acquire 60% of Yichun Jinshi Mining for 500 million in cash, with significant copper and molybdenum resources identified [1] - The inferred and controlled resource amounts include 1.54 million tons of copper with a grade of 0.15% and 460,000 tons of molybdenum with a grade of 0.046% [1] - The acquisition of Jinshi Mining is emphasized not only for copper but also for gold, as the I-type copper-molybdenum deposit primarily consists of primary sulfide ores, which have a high recovery rate and are easy to process [1] Group 2 - The company has received approval for the delayed trial production application of the Caiyuzi copper-gold mine and will proceed with obtaining the safety production license as required [1] - The production volume is not expected to be affected, and full production is anticipated to be achieved next year [1] - As a leading player in the silver industry, the company is entering the gold/copper mining sector, benefiting from the recent significant rise in gold and silver prices, which is expected to enhance the company's product offerings and valuation [1]

今天（12月26日）早盘，商品市场再度上演"狂飙模式"。 在海外市场因圣诞节假期休市的背景下，国内贵金属与基本金属价格集体拉升，多个品种刷新历史纪录。 其中，广期所铂期货主力合约盘中触及涨停，沪银、沪铜强势上攻，铜价距离10万元/吨关口仅一步之遥。 铂、钯期货价格的快速上行，也再度引发交易所层面的风控"加码"。 在资金情绪与基本面共振之下，贵金属和基本金属不断改写历史纪录，成为市场关注的焦点。 有机构也提 醒，随着价格的快速拉升，贵金属市场短期波动风险显著放大。 铂期货封涨停，波动风险加大 12月26日，广期所铂期货主力合约开盘后迅速拉升，盘中触及涨停板，日内涨幅达9.99%，报709.85元/克，再 创上市以来新高。盘面显示，日内一度增仓约2800手，做多情绪依然高涨。 与此同时，国际现货铂金同步走强，价格上涨逾5%，至每盎司2333.85美元，内外盘联动明显。作为今年以来 表现最为抢眼的贵金属品种之一，铂金在供需偏紧、资金追逐以及贵金属整体走强的背景下，持续刷新市场对 其价格中枢的认知。 不过，随着价格快速拉升，波动风险也在显著放大。金瑞期货研究员吴梓杰指出，当前市场风险偏好处于高 位，价格波动不容忽视。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a historic surge in precious metals, including gold, silver, copper, and platinum, as the US dollar experiences a significant decline, raising questions about the future of the global financial system and the potential for a shift in economic power [1][5]. Group 1: Precious Metals Surge - For the first time in history, all four major precious metals have reached record highs simultaneously, with gold surpassing $4600 per ounce and silver hitting $74 per ounce [3]. - The domestic price of gold jewelry has increased to 1420 yuan per gram, indicating a rapid appreciation in precious metal values [3]. Group 2: Factors Behind the Surge - The decline in the US dollar is attributed to multiple factors, including three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with expectations for two more cuts by 2026, leading to decreased confidence in the dollar [5]. - The US debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded 123%, with interest payments consuming 15% of federal revenue, contributing to a loss of faith in the dollar as a stable currency [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Venezuela, have driven investors to seek safety in gold, further fueling the demand for precious metals [6]. Group 3: Future Implications - The depreciation of the dollar may lead to increased costs for consumers, as the purchasing power of money diminishes, and prices for gold and related products rise [8]. - Predictions suggest that gold could reach $4900 per ounce and silver may continue to rise, although caution is advised due to potential speculative trading and volatility in the market [8]. - The current situation may signal a restructuring of the global economic order, with the dominance of the dollar being challenged, prompting the need for risk diversification [10].

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly focused on investment opportunities for 2026 as the A-share market approaches the end of 2025, with sectors like metals, TMT, and power equipment performing well, while dividend stocks and real estate are under pressure [1] Group 1: Global Economic Environment - The global macroeconomic landscape is expected to show positive changes in 2026, with the U.S. likely to adopt more accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, potentially increasing the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade [4] - The anticipated fiscal expansion in the U.S. may require a low-interest-rate environment, which could improve global liquidity and stabilize the external environment for the A-share market [4] Group 2: Domestic Economic Policies - The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2025 has set a policy direction of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," indicating a focus on quality and efficiency improvements [5] - Industrial enterprises are at the bottom of the inventory cycle, with a narrowing decline in PPI suggesting an approaching recovery phase for corporate profits, as evidenced by a 3.2% year-on-year growth in net profit for all A-shares in Q3 2025 [5] Group 3: Investment Opportunities for 2026 - The A-share market is expected to remain structurally driven, with five key areas for investors to focus on: 1. AI Super Cycle: Continued growth in domestic and international computing power chains, with a focus on new technology iterations and the gaming industry [9] 2. High-end Manufacturing Overseas: Attention on sectors like energy storage and lithium batteries, as well as heavy-duty vehicles and engineering machinery that offer growth potential [11] 3. Strategic Resource Revaluation: Long-term focus on precious and industrial metals, with particular attention to energy and lithium carbonate showing signs of stabilization [11] 4. Frontier Technology Breakthroughs: Ongoing interest in industries such as robotics, solid-state batteries, and quantum computing [11] 5. New Consumption and Innovative Pharmaceuticals: Focus on sectors with solid fundamentals in consumer and technology spending, as well as innovative medical devices [11] Group 4: Market Liquidity - The degree of asset allocation migration towards equity markets is still in its early stages, with significant room for growth as indicators remain at historical lows [10] - Institutional investors, including insurance funds and bank wealth management products, are expected to become important sources of marginal capital in 2026, further enhancing market liquidity [10]

Group 1: Precious Metals - The precious metals market continues to show strength, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and geopolitical risk sentiment, with silver outperforming gold significantly [1][3][5] - Silver's unique dual attributes, serving both as a financial asset and having important industrial uses, are contributing to its price increase, particularly with rising demand from the photovoltaic and new energy sectors [3] Group 2: Base Metals - The copper market remains on an upward trend, while aluminum is experiencing high-level fluctuations, and zinc has shown a pattern of rising and then retreating during the week [1] - Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure due to expectations of increased supply from the revival of certain lithium mines and a slowdown in demand during the December to February period, leading to a market correction [2] Group 3: Agricultural Products - Egg futures have rebounded after a period of decline, driven by optimistic expectations regarding future capacity reduction, despite ongoing weak spot prices [4] - Soybean meal prices are showing a strong oscillating trend, while corn prices are fluctuating, and live pig prices have seen a slight rebound [1][4]

记者丨曾静娇 见习记者 林芊蔚 编辑丨吴桂兴 视频丨王学权 见习编辑陈泽楷 12月26日， A股三大指数小幅低开后震荡上行 ，截至午盘涨跌不一，沪指跌0.19%，深成指 涨0.17%，创业板指跌0.15%。沪深两市半日成交额1.47万亿元， 全市场超3900只个股下跌。 消息面上，12月26日， 碳酸锂主力合约盘中强势突破13万元/吨关口，创2023年11月份以来新 高。 一则消息引爆，碳酸锂期货突破13万关口 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3952.09 | 13554.07 | 1459.17 | | -7.53 -0.19% +22.66 +0.17% +1.21 +0.08% | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1342.12 | 3234.63 | 6407.02 | | -6.94 -0.51% -4.72 -0.15% -2.87 -0.04% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4643.95 7415.97 | | 5646.41 | | +1.41 +0.03% +5.2 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19% to 3952.09, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.17% to 13554.07, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.15% to 3234.63 [4][6] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.45 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 251.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [5] Sector Performance - The AI industry chain experienced a collective pullback, with sectors like CPO, liquid cooling, and high-speed copper concepts leading the declines [4][6] - The lithium battery industry chain surged, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining reaching historical highs [4][10] - The commercial aerospace sector showed mixed performance, with some stocks hitting the daily limit [8] Notable Stocks - Zijin Mining reached a historical high, increasing by 3.47% to 33.14 yuan [11] - Hunan Silver and other precious metal stocks saw gains, with Hunan Silver rising over 3% [17] - The stock of Xiangri Technology fell over 16% after receiving a notice from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [15][16] Commodity Market - The futures market saw significant movements, with palladium futures rising over 8% and platinum futures hitting the daily limit with a 9.99% increase [20][21] - Spot gold prices exceeded $4530 per ounce, setting a new historical high, while silver prices surpassed $75 per ounce [19]

Report Date - The report is dated December 26, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals showing a bullish upward trend, construct a seller neutral volatility strategy [2] - For the black metals maintaining a large - amplitude volatile market, construct a short - volatility portfolio strategy [2] - For precious metals rebounding and rising, construct a bull spread portfolio strategy [2] Summary of Each Section 1. Futures Market Overview - The table presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open - interest changes of various metal futures contracts [3] 2. Option Factors - Volume and Open - Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open - interest PCR of different metal options are provided, along with their changes, which can be used to analyze the strength of the option underlying market and potential turning points [4] 3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, pressure - point offsets, support points, support - point offsets, maximum call option holdings, and maximum put option holdings of different metal options are given, helping to identify potential price barriers and supports [5] 4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied - volatility changes, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various metal options are presented [6] 5. Option Strategies and Recommendations Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum**: Construct a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc**: Construct a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and a spot covered - call strategy [10] - **Tin**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and a spot long - hedging strategy [11] Precious Metals - **Silver**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [12] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Construct a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options and a spot covered - call strategy [13] - **Iron Ore**: Construct a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options and a spot long - collar strategy [13] - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron)**: For manganese silicon, construct a short - volatility strategy; for silicon iron, construct a short - volatility strategy and a spot hedging - related strategy [13][14] - **Industrial Silicon**: Construct a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and a spot hedging strategy [14] - **Glass**: Construct a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and a spot long - collar strategy [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend with various factors influencing different commodities. Geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic conditions are the main drivers of price movements. For example, geopolitical conflicts often provide short - term price support, but in the long run, supply - demand fundamentals play a dominant role [1][21]. - Many commodities are in a state of supply - demand adjustment, with some facing oversupply (e.g., alumina), while others have potential supply shortages (e.g., nickel in the future). Market sentiment and expectations also have a significant impact on prices, such as the impact of减产 expectations on polycrystalline silicon [5][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: Due to attacks on Russian ports and slow repairs, Kazakhstan's December CPC crude exports will hit a 14 - month low. US shale oil production remains high despite reduced drilling. Geopolitical conflicts may cause short - term price rebounds, but the long - term trend is towards a lower price center due to loose supply [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil rose sharply, mainly driven by geopolitical news. However, in the medium term, supply is abundant. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak as supply increases [20]. - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is marginally loose. Geopolitical conflicts boost prices from the cost side, but it will eventually return to a price - pressured pattern due to supply - demand [21]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks, domestic precious metals are strong. Volatility is high in the short term [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Domestic spot supply - demand gives copper price adjustment pressure, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [3]. - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals have limited contradictions. It follows the rise of other metals, and long positions can be held with the 40 - day line as support [4]. - **Alumina**: Supply is in excess, and the price is weak until significant production cuts occur [5]. - **Zinc**: The bottom support is strong, and the price range is expected to be 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton in January [7]. - **Lead**: It fluctuates in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton under the game of cost and consumption [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Policy news has a major impact. Wait for market disturbances to end and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. - **Tin**: Pay attention to the MA10 moving average. There are risks at high levels, and it is recommended to configure out - of - the - money put options for spring contracts [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is strongly oscillating, and the fundamentals are generally strong [11]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene supply is loose, and the prices of polyethylene and polypropylene are under downward pressure [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may run in a low - level range, and caustic soda is expected to have limited upward space [27]. - **PX & PTA**: PX has a strong expected pattern, and PTA's upward drive comes from PX. Keep a long - term long - allocation idea [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It oscillates at a low price, and the supply - demand may improve in the second quarter [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The trading logic returns to concerns about US soybean exports and South American production expectations. Soybean meal will follow the trend of US soybeans [34]. - **Vegetable Oils**: The macro - sentiment is improving, and the fundamentals of palm oil are less bearish. Pay attention to South American crop weather [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of rapeseed is in excess globally. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds in the medium term and a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [36]. - **Corn**: The futures contract may oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the selling progress in the Northeast and auctions [38]. - **Pigs**: The futures price of the main contract is expected to be weak in the first half of next year [39]. - **Eggs**: Take a long - term long - position view, but beware of rapid price increases due to capital front - running [40]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton market is supported by factors such as fast sales and low commercial inventory. Adopt a long - position strategy when the price is low [41]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar price rebound may be limited [42]. - **Apples**: The market is bearish, and a short - position strategy is recommended [43]. Others - **Industrial Silicon**: Driven by the expectation of concentrated production cuts in the North, the futures price may maintain an oscillating pattern [13]. - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply pressure is gradually relieved, but the downstream demand is still weak. The market may continue to oscillate [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is at a low level. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating [14]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the demand has some resilience. The prices are likely to oscillate [15][16]. - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Adopt a long - position strategy when the price is low [17][18]. - **Container Shipping Index (Europe Line)**: The spot price has risen, but there may be price fluctuations in the future. Pay attention to shipping companies' strategies during the Spring Festival [19]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the market is strongly oscillating [22]. - **Methanol**: In the short term, the price may oscillate weakly in a range, and a long - position strategy for the 5 - 9 spread can be considered in the long term [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates at the bottom. Consider a long - position strategy for the month - spread in the medium term [24]. - **Styrene**: The supply pressure is difficult to reverse, and the market purchases are mainly for rigid demand [25]. - **Paper Pulp**: The short - term upward space is limited, and the port inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [45]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is rising, and the index futures are also up. Pay attention to the relationship between the US dollar, precious metals, and domestic policies [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve is likely to become steeper [47].