农产品日报 | 2025-06-12 供应预期增加，糖价弱势震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13540元/吨，较前一日变动+20元/吨，幅度+0.15%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14702元/吨，较前一日变动+58元/吨，现货基差CF09+1162，较前一日变动+38；3128B棉全国均价14784元/吨， 较前一日变动+41元/吨，现货基差CF09+1244，较前一日变动+21。 近期市场资讯，据CAI公布的数据统计显示，截至2025年6月8日当周，印度棉花周度上市量2.1万吨，同比下滑47%； 印度2024/25年度的棉花累计上市量471.46万吨，同比下滑7%。CAI累计上市量达24/25年度预测平衡表产量（495 万吨）的95%，同比快3%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收涨。宏观方面，中美贸易谈判释放积极信号，国内棉价受到提振小幅反弹。不过关税不确定 性仍强，需关注中美最终谈判结果和关税具体落地情况。国际方面，当前美棉播种进度持续偏慢，支撑棉价，不 过主产区近期降雨偏多，旱情较前期持续改善，其他国家供应端天气的叙事性目前也不足，国际棉价短期预计延 续震荡 ...

Group 1: Corn Report Industry Investment Rating - Low long [1] Core View - Short - term: The bullish sentiment in the spot market is rising, and the market is operating strongly. Medium - term: The supply pattern in China is expected to gradually tighten, and the spot price will still run strongly. However, the narrowing price difference between corn and wheat and the increase in wheat substitution limit the upside space. Long - term: Policy grain source release and wheat substitution expectations may limit the price upside, and China's corn pricing logic remains import substitution + planting cost, with policy orientation being the key focus [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Overnight, the main contract of CBOT corn futures rose and then fell, with a daily decline of 0.06%. Overnight, the domestic corn futures fluctuated narrowly, and the 2507 contract closed at 2378 yuan/ton with a change of 0% [1]. Important Information - Yesterday, the upward trend of corn spot prices continued. The mainstream purchase price in Northeast China was 2217 yuan/ton, stable compared with the previous day; the mainstream average purchase price in North China was 2445 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous day with a narrowing increase. The prices at north - south ports also continued to rise. The purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2290 - 2325 yuan/ton, up 10 - 15 yuan/ton, and the transaction price at Shekou Port was 2450 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. As of June 11, the corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 100 lots, totaling 216,495 lots. The wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton. Feed enterprises will increase the wheat substitution ratio from 5% - 10% in Q1 to 25% - 30% in Q2. On June 11, the planned sales volume of China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn auction was 56,000 tons, all of which were sold. The planned quantity of the corn purchase - sale two - way transaction of China Grain Reserves Beijing Company was 19,000 tons, and the transaction quantity was 8,000 tons, with a transaction rate of 43% [1]. Trading Strategy - Long - term: Range - bound operation; Medium - term: Maintain a low - long thinking; Short - term: Expect to reach 2400 yuan, and then the expectation turns into pressure. The upper pressure of the 2507 contract is 2390 - 2400 yuan, and that of the 2509 contract is 2420 yuan. Currently, the pressure is effective, and the market starts to organize and repair [1]. Group 2: Live Pigs Report Industry Investment Rating - Range [3] Core View - Short - term: Before the weight pressure is relieved, it is difficult for pig prices to rise, and they may continue to fluctuate weakly. Medium - term: There is still an expectation of increased pig supply, and whether there will be a seasonal upward trend from July to September depends on whether the weight reduction can be completed in June. Long - term: The inventory of breeding sows is still higher than the normal level, and if there is no epidemic, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Yesterday, live pig futures fluctuated strongly. The LH2509 contract rose 0.26% to close at 13,600 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 0.11% to close at 13,325 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On the 11th, the national average live pig price was 14.04 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day. This morning, pig prices were weak in the north and stable in the south. In April 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million, flat month - on - month and up 1.3% year - on - year. At the end of April, the inventory of medium and large pigs increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month. On June 11, the price difference between fat and standard pigs was 0.05 yuan/jin, the same as the previous day. On June 5, the average weekly slaughter weight of live pigs was 125.84 kg, down 0.05 kg from the previous week with a significantly narrowing week - on - week decline. On June 11, the live pig futures warehouse receipts did not change, with a cumulative total of 525 lots [3]. Trading Strategy - Long - term: High short; Medium - term: Range; Short - term: Fluctuate and organize, test the support effect. The short - term support of the 2509 contract is 13,300 - 13,400 yuan, and the short - term pressure is 13,700 - 13,800 yuan. The lower support of the 2511 contract is 13,000 - 13,100 yuan, and the short - term pressure is 13,400 - 13,500 yuan [3]. Group 3: Eggs Report Industry Investment Rating - High short [3] Core View - Short - term: The egg supply is stable, and downstream purchases are based on demand, so the short - term egg price is mainly weak and stable. Medium - term: The number of newly - laid hens is increasing, and the theoretical inventory of laying hens is still increasing, combined with the seasonal decline expectation during the plum - rain season, so the near - month futures contracts are still bearish. However, after the spot price remains low from June to July, the concentrated large - scale culling by farmers may lead to a phased supply reduction, and combined with the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak season, it may drive a phased rebound in the spot price from August to September [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Yesterday, egg futures showed mixed trends. The JD2507 contract fell 0.35% to close at 2825 yuan/500 kg, and the JD2508 contract rose 0.14% to close at 3515 yuan/500 kg [3]. Important Information - On the 11th, the spot price was mainly weak and stable. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.66 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.04 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day. The spot price of Guantao eggs remained the same as the previous day at 2.56 yuan/jin. On the 11th, the average inventory in the production link was 0.99 days, up 0.02 days from the previous day; the inventory in the circulation link was 1.04 days, up 0.02 days from the previous day. On the 11th, the average price of old hens was 4.51 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day. As of June 5, the weekly culling age of old hens was 515 days, 6 days less than the previous week. In May, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.334 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.38% and a year - on - year increase of 7.23%. The theoretical estimated inventory of laying hens in June is 1.34 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.45% [3]. Trading Strategy - Previously, it was recommended to pay attention to the band short - selling opportunity after the 2507 contract was under pressure. This week, if the 2800 support is effective, the previous short positions can consider partial profit - taking. Currently, it is recommended to take partial profit and wait and see. If the spot price further weakens, the 07 contract still has some room to squeeze the premium. The 08/09 contracts test the lower support, with the 08 contract being relatively strong and the 09/10 contracts being relatively weak. You can also wait for the band low - long opportunity of the 8/9 contracts after the premium repair is completed [3][4].

| SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年06月11日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | | | 棕櫚油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆仍在进行移仓,价格在横盘调整。河南省首批最低收购价托市小麦收购库点正式启动运行,政策端给 粮价托底。东北东部降水量偏大的问题。进口大豆方面中期会受天气驱动，天气会成为影响价格的主要因素, 今年美国大豆平衡表同比偏紧，所以今年要密切 ...

2025年06月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地压力分歧较大，震荡磨底 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：驱动暂时不强，区间震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：中美会谈希望美豆微涨，连粕偏强震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：移仓换月、周边市场偏强，盘面反弹 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 8 | | 棉花：继续受市场情绪影响 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：梅雨季利空释放，等待淘鸡印证 | 11 | | 生猪：降重初启动，等待现货印证 | 12 | | 花生：关注现货 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 11 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地压力分歧较大，震荡磨底 豆油：驱动暂时不强，区间震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,116 | 涨跌幅 -0.81% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,086 | 涨跌幅 -0.37% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 需求相对疲软，白糖短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-11 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区 ...

关注全球粮食市场动态 +订阅 泛欧交易所9月期小麦期货因全球供应充裕而跌破每吨200欧元的关口。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content was found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean meal futures market continued to strengthen, mainly driven by macro - factors. The rapeseed meal futures market also rebounded, mainly influenced by soybean meal. The inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures showed a generally strong trend [4]. - The fundamentals of US old - crop soybeans are still favorable, while the new - crop sowing progress has slowed but remains at a relatively high level. Brazil's soybean selling progress is slow, and its exports are expected to increase. Argentina's domestic soybean crushing may slow down [5]. - The domestic spot market is becoming more abundant, with increasing soybean oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation. The near - term demand improvement is limited, but there may be support in the long - term due to relatively tight supply [7]. - The macro - situation, especially the Sino - US negotiations in the UK, is the main driver of the market. Future negotiation results may have a significant impact on the market [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The external market continued to fluctuate, with limited overall changes. The domestic soybean meal futures market strengthened, and the rapeseed meal futures market rebounded. The inter - monthly spreads of both showed a strong trend [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **US**: As of the week ending June 5th, the good - to - excellent rate of US new - crop soybeans was 68%. The old - crop export inspection volume was 547,000 tons, at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The USDA - reported soybean crushing volume in April was 5.508 million tons, a 2.03% month - on - month decrease. The new - crop sowing progress has slowed [5]. - **Brazil**: The selling progress of Brazilian farmers has accelerated but remains at a low level in the same period of history. The recent soybean crushing volume has decreased, and exports are expected to increase [5]. - **Argentina**: The growth rate of domestic soybean crushing may slow down [5]. - **Domestic**: As of June 6th, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2446 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.1%. The soybean inventory was 6.1029 million tons, a 4.7% increase from the previous week and a 24.7% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 382,500 tons, a 28.36% increase from the previous week and a 57% decrease year - on - year. The rapeseed meal demand has weakened, and the supply pressure remains [7]. 3.3 Macro - situation - The market's focus is on the Sino - US negotiations in the UK. Although little information has been released, the market is optimistic due to pre - meeting positive signals. The macro - situation has become the main driver of the market, and the negotiation results may have a significant impact [8]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures market is strengthening, mainly driven by the macro - situation. The US soybean futures market may face downward pressure. The import cost of soybeans from Brazil is expected to have limited downward movement. The rapeseed meal market is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the M11 - 1 spread. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [9].

菜籽系产业日报 2025-06-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9188 | 6 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2629 | 15 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 142 289086 | 1 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) -2291 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 273 552069 | 10 10019 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 42967 | 5349 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -11713 | 994 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 0 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 26649 | -415 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 694.6 | 2.3 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5066 | - ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report issued by ITG Guomao Futures' Agricultural Products Research Center on June 10, 2025, with analyst Huang Xianglan [2][3] Group 2: Spot Basis Data - 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was -39 on June 9, up 11; in Tianjin -79, up 11; in Rizhao -139, up 31; in Zhangjiagang -119, down 9; in Dongguan -159, up 31; in Zhanjiang -119, up 11; in Fangcheng -119, up 21 [4] - Rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was -184 on June 9, down 6 [4] Group 3: Spread Data - M9 - 1 was -41; N9 - RM9 was -3; RM9 - 1 was 263; spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 430, up 40; spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 405, up 3 [4][5] Group 4: Supply Situation - Domestic arrivals of Brazilian soybeans in May, June, and July 2025 are expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. As of June 9, the ship - buying progress is 94.4% for June, 80.6% for July, and 33.8% for August. US soybean planting progress is fast, and the weather in the next two weeks is expected to be favorable for early growth [5] Group 5: Demand Situation - From the perspective of inventory, pig supply is expected to increase steadily before September; poultry inventory remains at a high level. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, leading to increased downstream transactions and better提货 [6] Group 6: Inventory Situation - As of last week, domestic soybean inventory continued to accumulate and is currently at a relatively high level in the same period. Soybean meal inventory also continued to accumulate but is still at a low level. With the significant recovery of开机 and pressing, soybean meal inventory is expected to accumulate at an accelerated pace in June [6] Group 7: Core View - The precipitation in Nebraska and surrounding areas in the US production area has been relatively low recently, but there is no high - temperature cooperation. Brazilian premium has slightly declined tonight. Domestic soybean and soybean meal continue to accumulate inventory, but the inventory accumulation speed of soybean meal is currently relatively slow. Domestic basis continues to decline. The pressure of Brazilian soybean arrivals is expected to continue to be reflected in the basis and near - month contracts. As domestic ship - buying progresses, the short - term upward space of M09 is expected to be relatively limited [6]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | | 虽然期货盘面价格上涨，但大豆盘面榨利差，油厂进口积极性低。期货的强势与 进口成本走高，远期供应担忧有关。操作上，豆粕 91、15 正套持有，单边多头 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 思路。 | | | | 周一，BMD 棕榈油震荡运行，市场等待 MPOB 报告指引。之前一项调查显示， 尽管出口需求旺盛，但受到产量温和复苏推动，马来西亚 5 月棕榈油库存预计攀 升至 201 万吨，环比上涨 7.74%。其中产量环比增长 3%至 174 万吨。原油价格偏 | | | 油脂 | 强运行，因地缘紧张加剧和美国经济数据好于预期。国内方面，油脂期价偏强运 | 震荡 | | | 行。棕榈油和豆油的涨幅超过菜籽油，蛋白粕走势强于油脂。库存方面，油脂库 | | | | 存稳中增加，大豆压榨量增加是主要原因，其次是油脂需求平淡，国内供应宽松 | | | | 预期持续。操作上，短线参与，豆油和棕榈油买 9 卖 1。 | | | | 周一，鸡蛋期货下跌，主力 2507 合约下跌后低位震荡，尾盘小幅回收，日收跌 | | | | ...