Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - The continuous escalation of the Sino-US trade war and the implementation of Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy have led to increased market volatility, affecting the prices of cotton, sugar, and pulp [2][8] - The global cotton market maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, with the expected reduction in US cotton planting area in the new season and high domestic industrial and commercial inventories. The downstream demand has improved in March but is expected to weaken after April [2] - The 24/25 sugar production season in the Northern Hemisphere is basically over. The market focus is on the progress of the 25/26 sugar cane crushing season in Brazil and the weather in the producing areas. The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term and follow the trend of raw sugar in the medium term [6][7] - The pulp price has been under pressure due to the impact of the tariff policy on the global trade environment, high global shipments, high domestic port inventories, and weak downstream demand [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2505 contract yesterday was 12,585 yuan/ton, a change of -250 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.95%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,283 yuan/ton, a change of -42 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was CF05 + 1698, a change of +208 from the previous day. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 14,464 yuan/ton, a change of -130 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was CF05 + 1879, a change of +120 from the previous day [1] - In March, Brazil's cotton export volume was 239,000 tons, a decrease of 13.0% from the previous month (275,000 tons) and a decrease of 5.4% from the same period last year (253,000 tons). Turkey and Vietnam were the main export destinations, each accounting for 21% of the total export volume. Pakistan ranked third with a share of 20%, and there were also exports to Bangladesh (15%) [1] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated and declined. The continuous escalation of the trade war and the high tariffs will have an obvious impact on China's textile and clothing exports, and the cotton price has hit new lows after the festival. Globally, the 24/25 cotton market maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the expectation of reduced planting in the new season of US cotton has increased. Domestically, the current industrial and commercial inventories of cotton are still at a high level, and the expected planting area in the new season is expected to increase steadily. The downstream performance in March improved compared with the previous month but was still weak compared with the peak season. After April, the demand is expected to weaken [2] Strategy - Neutral to bearish. The Sino-US trade war continues to escalate, and the macro risks caused by tariffs have not ended. The cotton price volatility has increased, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2505 contract yesterday was 6,006 yuan/ton, a change of -42 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.69%. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,130 yuan/ton, a change of -20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was SR05 + 124, a change of +22 from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,930 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was SR05 - 76, a change of -8 from the previous day [4] - As of April 7, 197 sugar mills in Maharashtra, India, had completed the sugar cane crushing process in the 2024/25 season, an increase of 10 compared with the same period last season. A total of 85.13 million tons of sugar cane were crushed, a decrease of 21.831 million tons or 20.41% compared with the same period last year. The sugar production was 8.064 million tons, a decrease of 2.894 million tons or 26.4% compared with the same period last year, and the sugar production rate was 9.47%, a decrease of 0.77% compared with the same period last year [5] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price weakened and consolidated. In the raw sugar market, the production in the Northern Hemisphere in the 24/25 season is basically over, and the news of the sugar production reduction in India has been basically reflected in the futures price. The market focus is on the progress of the 25/26 sugar cane crushing season in Brazil and the weather in the producing areas. In the short term, the raw sugar inventory is at a low level, and the support below the raw sugar 05 contract is strong. In the medium term, the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil still exists, and the sugar price may still be under pressure. Domestically, the sugar production in this season continues to increase, but the short-term import of sugar is very limited. The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the import of sugar is supplemented, and the medium-term trend is expected to follow the raw sugar [6][7] Strategy - Neutral. The general direction of the Zhengzhou sugar futures price follows the raw sugar, and attention should be paid to the weather and policy changes in Brazil [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2505 contract yesterday was 5,202 yuan/ton, a change of -240 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 4.41%. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,420 yuan/ton, a change of -30 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was SP05 + 978, a change of -112 from the previous day. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5,550 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was SP05 + 108, a change of -132 from the previous day [7] - Yesterday, the spot price of imported wood pulp continued to decline. The price of the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the paper mills' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials was not high. The spot prices of some grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, Hebei, Henan, and Northeast China decreased by 10 - 100 yuan/ton, and some wood pulp traders in local areas suspended trading and waited and watched. The trading atmosphere in the imported hardwood pulp spot market was dull, and the spot prices of some grades in Northeast China, Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang decreased by 30 - 100 yuan/ton. The supply and demand of the imported chemimechanical pulp spot market changed little, and the spot price remained stable. The demand for the imported natural color pulp spot market was poor, and the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang decreased by 50 yuan/ton [8] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the pulp futures price dropped sharply and hit a new low. The "reciprocal tariff" policy has a negative impact on the global trade environment and the economic recovery and commodity prices. The short-term demand recovery in the European and American markets still faces pressure, which is negative for the pulp price. On the supply side, the US dollar quotation in the international market continues to rise, and the cost support is still strong. However, the global shipments are still at a high level, and the domestic pulp import volume increased significantly from January to February, and the arrival volume in March is also expected to be high. The domestic port inventory has remained at a relatively high level after the Spring Festival, which has continuously suppressed the market price. On the demand side, the demand in Europe has not improved significantly, and the wood pulp port inventory in Europe is still at a historical high. The peak season in the domestic downstream is not strong, and the paper mills' procurement is still mainly based on rigid demand. With the continuous decline of the pulp price, the paper mills' profits have improved slightly, but the terminal demand expectation is not optimistic, and the downstream's willingness to accept goods has not improved. After May, the industry will enter the traditional off-season, and the demand may continue to weaken [8] Strategy - Neutral. In the short term, the trade war continues to intensify, the demand expectation is pessimistic, and the industrial chain lacks positive drivers. It is expected to fluctuate under pressure in the short term [8]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 农产品日报（2025 年 4 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周三，玉米 | 玉米 | 5 月合约减仓调整，受现货拖累 5 月和 7 月合约联动下行，基差回归。 | 震荡偏强 | | 玉米 | | 5 月合约多空主力继续向 7 月合约移仓，7 月成为主力合约。现货市场方面， | | | 关税上调玉米进口成本提升。虽然近期期货市场未继续上涨，但从产区报价来看 | | | | | 相对坚挺，部分深加工也开始上调玉米收购价。继续关注关税消息对盘面的影响， | | | | | 虽然加征关税的实质性影响可控，但或支撑市场心态。华北地区玉米价格整体维 | | | | | 持稳定，个别地区价格窄幅调整，部分企业补涨，但变化幅度有限。山东深加工 | | | | | 玉米到货量增加，基本满足生产需求，价格维持稳定。河北、河南部分深加工价 | | | | | 格窄幅上调 | | 10-30 元/吨。销区市场玉米价格整体稳定为主，钦州港下调 20 元/ | | | ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term outlook for the soybean oil 2509 contract is likely to be in consolidation [1]. - The short - term outlook for the soybean meal is likely to be in a volatile and slightly stronger trend due to large emotional fluctuations [2]. - The short - term corn futures price is expected to oscillate within a range, and an interval operation strategy is recommended [3][4]. - After a sharp decline, copper prices need a rest, and tactical defense should be considered [5]. - The lithium carbonate 2505 contract may be in a weak and volatile trend, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [6][7]. - The steel market is pessimistic, and steel prices are likely to oscillate at a low level [8]. - The coking coal and coke are likely to have a weak and volatile rebound at a low level, with limited upside space [9]. - The iron ore 2505 contract is likely to be in a short - term oscillation, and traders are advised to be cautious [10]. - For the WTI crude oil, attention should be paid to the support level of the INE crude oil main contract around 430 - 450 yuan/barrel after the sharp decline [11]. - The rubber market is likely to be in a weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the downstream operating conditions of Shanghai rubber [13]. - The PVC futures price is likely to oscillate at a low level due to weak macro - sentiment [14][15]. - The soda ash futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the short term [16]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8,270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy impacts the futures market. Currently, it is the U.S. soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and export season. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil are expected to be neutral, and the inventory is likely to be in consolidation [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,100 yuan/ton (- 30), Tianjin 3,270 yuan/ton (- 20), Rizhao 3,200 yuan/ton (- 20), and Dongguan 3,010 yuan/ton (- 10) [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Sino - U.S. tariff policies cause market panic. Brazilian soybean harvesting is nearly complete. U.S. soybean exports are pessimistically expected. Domestic soybean meal supply may be tight in the short - term but will turn loose later. Terminal demand is average, and oil - mill inventories are neutral. Short - term sentiment is strong due to tariff events [2]. Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in different regions are provided, such as 2,088 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, 2,293 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai, and 2,140 - 2,160 yuan/ton in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The U.S. corn planting area in 2025 is expected to reach a 12 - year high. The domestic supply pressure is reduced, and the demand from the pig - breeding industry is expected to increase. However, there are still potential suppressing factors, and the price is mainly determined by domestic supply and demand [3]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 73,820 - 75,400 yuan, down 4,540 yuan, with a premium of 100 - 200 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 26.4, down 2.26 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Global "irrational" tariffs cause overseas capital market fluctuations. Domestic policies boost market sentiment. The copper market is in a state of stage resonance, with intensified games between reality and expectations [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 71,900 yuan/ton (- 1,500), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 70,500 yuan/ton (- 1,200) [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is increasing, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the inventory is accumulating. The price has fallen, and attention should be paid to the 70,000 - yuan integer support [6]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.13%, the social inventory is 5.9095 million tons, and the steel - mill inventory is 2.0712 million tons [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, the cost is rising, the inventory is decreasing, and the market presents a pattern of strong supply and demand. The short - term price is affected by macro - policy expectations [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,200 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,330 yuan/ton. The port inventories of imported coking coal and coke are 3.4756 million tons and 2.1713 million tons respectively [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly accumulating, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [9]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 98.85, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 770 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 769 yuan [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and there are concerns about the contraction of long - process steelmaking demand. However, the weakening of the US dollar index provides some support [10]. Crude Oil - **Spot Information**: Not provided in the report. - **Market Analysis**: After the US announced "reciprocal tariffs", the global capital market tumbled, and OPEC+ decided to increase production in May. The US PMI data contracted, and the demand is worried. The crude oil has entered a technical bear market [11]. Rubber - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of rubber, such as domestic whole - latex, Thai smoked sheets, and Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, are provided [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The US "reciprocal tariffs" impact China's tire and automobile exports. The global rubber supply and demand are both loose, and the demand may be severely suppressed [13]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,800 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,100 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The production enterprise operating rate is increasing, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is decreasing. The futures price may oscillate at a low level due to macro - tariff factors [14]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,464.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The production is increasing, the inventory is accumulating at the factory and decreasing in the society, the demand is average, and the market is affected by macro - events and related varieties [16].

美豆价格从低点反弹，玉米、小麦逼近两周高点，天气炒作会否接棒引爆农产品行情？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 4 月 8 日 【粕类日报】贸易影响增加 粕类继续走强 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | 2025/4/8 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 0 1 | 3127 | 103 | 天津 | 360 | 370 | -10 | | 0 5 豆粕 | 2973 | 8 8 | 东莞 | 110 | 120 | -10 | | 0 9 | 3164 | 108 | 张家港 | 200 | 220 | -20 | | | | | 日照 | 290 | 300 | -10 | | 0 1 | 2457 | 100 | 南通 | -125 | - 8 | -117 | | 菜粕 0 5 | ...

农产品日报（2025 年 4 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，玉米主力 2505 合约减仓调整，现货回落，5 月合约多空主力向 7 月合约移 | 震荡 | | | 仓。周初，在北港玉米库存下降的利好因素影响下，玉米 9 月和 11 月合约企稳 | | | | 上行，远月领涨、近月跟涨，7 月合约在重要支撑位 2300 元/吨整数关口企稳， | | | | 短期价格企稳上行。近期，东北玉米价格整体偏弱，港口及深加工玉米价格下调 | | | | 都对价格有不利影响，但产区余粮整体偏少对行情也有一定的支撑。华北地区玉 | | | | 米价格整体维持稳定，个别企业价格窄幅调整，主流价格维持稳定。目前山东深 | | | 玉米 | 加工主流价格维持在 2250-2340 元/吨，贸易商对短期上涨预期减弱，在利润较 | | | | 为可观的情况下，以逢高出货策略为主。整体来看 ，玉米主力 2505 合约自 3 月 | | | | 中旬的 2336 元/吨的价格高点持续回落近两周时间，5 月期价下跌至 2240 元/吨 | | | | 的价格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the bean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant harvest of soybeans in Brazil this year is exerting increasing pressure on future supply. With sufficient bean meal inventory in domestic oil mills and expected increases in soybean arrivals, the domestic supply side is relatively relaxed. Meanwhile, the livestock industry has adjusted the proportion of bean meal in feed due to declining profits, leading to weak downstream demand and a pessimistic sentiment in the spot market. Future soybean arrivals and policy changes need continuous monitoring [2] - In the domestic corn market, the supply of surplus grain from farmers has progressed rapidly, and some traders are selling their stocks, resulting in relatively limited remaining grain in production areas. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises are facing increased losses, some with high inventory pressures, leading to more starch enterprises scheduling maintenance and a slight decline in the industry's operating rate. Feed enterprises also have relatively high inventories, slowing down their spot purchasing. The market sentiment has become more cautious, with a moderation in the sentiment of hoarding and expecting price increases. Corn prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Key Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2505 contract was 2832 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton or 1.00% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2505 contract closed at 2552 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 1.27% [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3140 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 308, down 38 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3020 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 188, down 28; in Guangdong, it was 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M05 + 128, down 28. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2540 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM05 - 12, down 2 [1] - **Market Information**: As of March 29, the harvest progress of the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean crop was 81.4%, up from 76.4% a week ago and higher than 71.0% in the same period last year, marking the fifth consecutive week of exceeding the previous year's progress. The five - year average harvest progress for the same period was 67.2%. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso was 99.1% (96.2% last year, five - year average 96.3%); in Paraná, it was 90.0% (87.0% last year, five - year average 68.8%) [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The large Brazilian soybean harvest is increasing supply pressure. Domestic oil mills have sufficient bean meal inventory, and with more soybeans expected to arrive, the supply side is relaxed. Weak demand from the livestock industry due to profit declines and concerns about future supply are affecting the market [2] 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch 3.2.1 Market News and Key Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2505 contract was 2268 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.62% from the previous day; the corn starch 2505 contract closed at 2639 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 0.50% [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C05 - 78, down 4 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of CS05 + 11, down 13 [3] - **Market Information**: As of March 29, the harvest progress of the first - season corn in Brazil's 2024/25 crop was 53.3%, higher than 46.4% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 41.1%. The sowing progress of the second - season corn was 97.9%, compared to 98.7% last year and a five - year average of 92.5%. StoneX recently lowered its forecast for Brazil's first - season corn production to 25.9 million tons (previously 26.53 million tons) and second - season corn production to 101.62 million tons (previously 102.13 million tons) due to poor weather in Rio Grande do Sul [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - On the supply side, farmers in production areas have sold most of their surplus grain, and some traders are also selling, resulting in limited remaining grain. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises are facing losses and high inventory, leading to more maintenance and a decline in the operating rate. Feed enterprises have high inventories, slowing down their purchasing. Market sentiment has become more cautious, and corn prices are expected to remain volatile [4]

| 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 市场担忧巴西天气，原糖短期震荡整理 商品研究 报告内容摘要: [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-03 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已接近尾声，北方的甜菜糖厂已全部停产， 而南方的甘蔗糖厂则陆续进入榨糖阶段。根据中国糖业协会的统计，截至 2025 年 2 月底，全国累计食糖产量达到 972 万吨，同比增加 177 万吨；累 计销售糖量为 475 万吨，同比增加 97 万吨；销售进度为 48.9%，较去年同 期加快了 1.4 个百分点。3 月，广西、云南等地迎来了持续降雨，旱情得到 缓解，有利于甘蔗的生长，但后续仍需关注天气变化。在国际市场方面，巴 西的食糖产量较上年有所下降，印度的产量也未达到预期，导致国际市场的 供需缺口进一步扩大。 软商品日报 走 ...

Group 1 - Canada has imposed tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs), prompting China to retaliate with tariffs on Canadian agricultural products, including a 100% additional tariff on canola oil [1] - The price of canola, a key raw material for cooking oil, has sharply declined, with Canadian canola futures closing at CAD 552.9 per ton on March 13, marking a 12% drop compared to the previous week and reaching the lowest point since mid-September 2024 [1] - China is expected to strengthen its countermeasures against Canada, including anti-dumping investigations on canola imports, which may lead to a decrease in global demand for canola [1] Group 2 - Market analysts suggest that speculators have begun to close their long positions in canola, with prices potentially falling to the range of CAD 550 to CAD 550 [1]