Export Performance - In May 2025, China's export value in RMB reached 2.28 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, down from 9.3% in the previous month[2] - Cumulative exports from January to May 2025 totaled 10.67 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, slightly down from 7.5%[2] - Exports to Belt and Road countries amounted to 5.34 trillion RMB, growing by 10.4% year-on-year[2] Trade with the U.S. - China's exports to the U.S. in May 2025 fell by 33.6% year-on-year, worsening from a 20.2% decline in April[3] - The average tariff level in May remained high, impacting export performance, with tariffs at 145% before May 14 and reduced to 30% thereafter[4] - The U.S. imported significantly more from Vietnam and Indonesia, with increases of 47.8% and 28.9% respectively, indicating a shift in sourcing[2] Trade Surplus and Economic Impact - The trade surplus in May 2025 was 103.22 billion USD, up from 96.18 billion USD in the previous month, indicating a strong position[6] - In Q1 2025, the trade surplus reached 273 billion USD, contributing 40% to GDP growth[6] - Future trade surplus is expected to continue supporting GDP, contingent on domestic demand policies[5] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include unexpected deterioration in U.S.-China trade relations and a significant decline in external demand impacting exports[7]

Core Viewpoint - China's exports to the United States in May amounted to $28.8 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 35%, the largest drop since February 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic began [1][2]. Group 1: Export Data and Trends - The decline in exports to the U.S. has worsened compared to April's 21% drop, despite a mutual reduction of additional tariffs by 115% agreed upon during ministerial talks in Switzerland on May 10-11 [1][2]. - The significant drop in exports is attributed to high tariffs that had previously hindered shipments, with companies needing time to adjust and resume normal operations post-tariff reduction [3][4]. - Specific categories of goods, such as smartphones, toys, and furniture, have seen a decline in exports compared to the same period last year, with smartphones down over 20% [5]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Predictions indicate a temporary recovery in June, with a surge in exports expected to continue until August [4]. - Despite the challenges in U.S. exports, China's overall exports to other countries remain strong, with ASEAN being the largest export destination, showing a 15% increase compared to last year [6].

Group 1 - The central government is set to establish a commercial health insurance innovative drug catalog to better meet the multi-level medication guarantee needs of the public [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Civil Affairs are promoting the design and development of intelligent elderly care service robots, with a pilot period from 2025 to 2027 [3] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development aims to achieve an average resource utilization rate of over 50% for construction waste in cities at the prefecture level and above by 2027 [6] Group 2 - The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce is planning to create a global first-release center to support the renovation and upgrading of commercial districts and shopping malls [8] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has issued compliance guidelines for the "6·18" online promotional event, emphasizing fair market competition and the prevention of illegal activities [10] - Guiyang is establishing a joint meeting system to promote the development of the sports industry, with plans to introduce supportive policies and funding for sports products and services [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significance of the first round of Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultations held in London, which aims to strengthen economic relations and deepen mutual understanding between the two countries [1][8] - China's foreign trade demonstrated resilience and adaptability, with a total import and export value of 17.94 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [2][4] - Exports reached 10.67 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports fell by 3.8% to 7.27 trillion yuan [2][4] Group 2 - In May, China's trade surplus increased by 25% year-on-year, reaching 103.2 billion USD, indicating strong export performance despite external pressures [2][4] - The export growth rates to ASEAN, EU, Africa, and Central Asia were 16.9%, 13.7%, 35.3%, and 8.8% respectively, showcasing the diversification of China's export markets [4][5] - The structure of China's foreign trade continues to optimize, with exports of equipment manufacturing products amounting to 6.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 58.3% of total exports [4][5] Group 3 - Following the Geneva economic talks, financial institutions have raised their growth forecasts for China's economy, with Goldman Sachs, UBS, and JPMorgan increasing their predictions by 0.6% to 0.7% [6] - Morgan Stanley also adjusted its quarterly GDP growth forecast for China, anticipating that companies may accelerate exports to take advantage of temporarily lower tariffs [6] - The OECD has downgraded growth forecasts for the global economy, indicating potential risks from trade fragmentation and supply chain disruptions [6][8] Group 4 - The ongoing Sino-U.S. trade negotiations are seen as crucial for addressing fundamental issues, with the U.S. seeking to restore exports of key rare earth minerals to pre-trade war levels [8][9] - The global investment community is hopeful that these negotiations will ease trade tensions, as indicated by comments from various financial analysts and government representatives [9]

Core Insights - China's total goods trade import and export value reached 17.94 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, indicating a recovery in the economy despite external pressures [1][2] Trade Performance - Cumulative growth rate of imports and exports has been steadily increasing, from a decline of 2.2% in January to a growth of 2.5% in May [2] - In May alone, the total trade value was 3.81 trillion yuan, growing by 2.7%, with exports at 2.28 trillion yuan (up 6.3%) and imports at 1.53 trillion yuan (down 2.1%) [2] Trade by Enterprises - Private enterprises, as the largest trading entity, accounted for 57.1% of total foreign trade, with imports and exports reaching 10.25 trillion yuan, a growth of 7% [3] - Foreign-invested enterprises had a total trade value of 5.21 trillion yuan, growing by 2.3% [3] Product Export Performance - Mechanical and electrical products contributed significantly to export growth, with a total export value of 6.4 trillion yuan, growing by 9.3% [3][4] - Exports of labor-intensive products decreased by 1.5%, while agricultural product exports grew by 4.7% [3] Regional Trade Dynamics - The central region of China led the national growth in trade, with a total of 1.5 trillion yuan in imports and exports, growing by 11.1% [5] - ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling 3.02 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.1% [5][6] Trade with Africa - Trade with African countries reached a historical high of 963.21 billion yuan, growing by 12.4% [6] - China has maintained its position as Africa's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years [6]

Core Insights - China's total goods trade value for the first five months of the year reached 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with exports at 10.67 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports at 7.27 trillion yuan (down 3.8%) [1] - The ASEAN region remains China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling 3.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.1%, accounting for 16.8% of total foreign trade [1] - Trade with African countries showed significant growth, with total trade reaching 963.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, and exports growing by 20.2% [2] Trade Performance - In May, despite having two fewer working days, China's imports and exports still achieved year-on-year growth of 2.7% and 6.3%, respectively [1] - Trade with the EU saw a total value of 2.3 trillion yuan, growing by 2.9%, while trade with the US totaled 285.51 billion yuan, with a month-on-month decline of 12.67% [1] Product Analysis - Exports of electromechanical products reached 6.4 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.3%, making up 60% of total exports, with integrated circuits, ships, and LCD panels showing double-digit growth in both quantity and value [3] - The Chinese government is expected to continue implementing policies to stabilize growth and foreign trade, with potential financial support for struggling foreign trade enterprises [3]

Export Performance - In May, China's total exports amounted to $316.1 billion, with a trade surplus of $103.22 billion[6] - Year-on-year export growth in May was 4.8%, slightly below the expected 5%[8] - The two-year average growth rate for exports continued to rise, reaching 6.1% in May[8] Trade Relations - Exports to ASEAN and EU showed resilience, with EU exports growing by 12% year-on-year, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall export growth[8] - Exports to the US saw a significant decline of 34.5% year-on-year, negatively impacting overall export performance by 5 percentage points[8] Product Categories - Mechanical and electrical products saw a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, while high-tech and labor-intensive products experienced declines of 4.9% and 2.5%, respectively[8] - Consumer goods such as mobile phones, home appliances, and computers showed weak export performance, negatively affecting overall export growth[8] Import Trends - Imports in May decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, with agricultural products showing a positive growth of 0.7%[8] - The trade surplus expanded to $103.22 billion due to the combination of rising exports and declining imports[8] Future Outlook - Overall export resilience is expected to continue into June, driven by the recovery in exports to the US as trade negotiations progress[8] - The outcome of US trade negotiations will significantly influence export performance in the second half of the year[8] Risk Factors - Uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies poses a risk to China's export outlook, with potential impacts on re-export trade[7][8]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 5 月出口，高关税阴影犹存 据海关总署，2025年5月出口总值为3161亿美元，同比增长4.8%，低于市场预期的6.2%和4月的8.1%； 进口总值为 2129 亿美元，同比-3.4%，预期 0.31%，前值-0.2%。5 月以来，中美贸易关系缓和，第一轮谈判后 中美互相大幅降低关税，当前美国对华关税仍维持在 30%之上。如何看待 5 月份进出口数据？ 一是对美出口继续下降，暂未反映贸易缓和。5 月对美出口同比降 34.6%，拖累出口同比 5 个百分点。对美 出口进一步大幅下降，或仍在继续反映 4 月美国对中国征收 145%高额关税的影响。不过，5 月以来，中美贸易 关系逐渐缓和，5 月 12 日中美会谈结束后发布日内瓦联合声明，中美之间关税税率超预期大幅下降，关税下调 于 5 月 14 日正式生效。6 月 5 日晚间，中美最高领导人通话，同意双方团队继续落实好日内瓦共识，并约定尽 快举行新一轮会谈。 伴随中美关系缓和，中国对美出口的恢复有望体现在 6 月数据。5 月中旬暂停加征关税后，市场迅速 ...

Export Performance - In May 2025, China's export value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points compared to April[1] - Exports to the U.S. fell by 34.5% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 13.5 percentage points from the previous month, significantly dragging down overall export growth[1][3] - The high base effect from the previous year, where exports grew by 7.4% in May 2024, also contributed to the slowdown in May 2025[4] Import Trends - In May 2025, China's import value decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 3.2 percentage points from April[6] - Imports from the U.S. saw a year-on-year decline of 18.1%, with the drop expanding by 4.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, directly impacting overall import growth by 1.1 percentage points[6] - The decline in import demand was also influenced by the overall slowdown in exports and the negative impact of the trade war on domestic investment and consumer confidence[5][6] Market Dynamics - The "export rush" effect towards the U.S. is expected to continue in June, potentially maintaining positive year-on-year growth in exports, although the growth rate may drop to around 1.0%[5] - The ongoing high tariff levels from the U.S. and the established trend of external demand slowing down suggest that export growth may face downward pressure in the second half of the year[5] - The diversification of export markets has shown progress, with exports to ASEAN growing by 14.8% and to the EU by 12.0% in May, indicating resilience amid external challenges[4]

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月09日 进出口数据快评 出口仍然展现较强韧性 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 6 月 9 日，海关总署数据显示，中国 5 月出口（以美元计价）同比增长 4.8%，进口同比下降 3.4%，贸易顺 差 1032.2 亿美元。 评论： 证券研究报告 图3：主要发达国家制造业景气度 图4：集装箱运价指数 出口仍然展现较强韧性 2025 年 5 月出口增速当月同比达到+4.8%，较 4 月+8.1%的水平继续回落。原因上看，关税带来的负面影响 逐步显现，5 月我国对美出口当月同比进一步下滑至-34.6%，对出口造成较大拖累，这也符合转口贸易抢 订单后逐步退潮的基本经验。但是，5 月在贸易形势面临较大压力的背景下仍然保 ...