专业研究·创造价值 1 / 13 请务必阅读文末免责条款 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-08 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-20 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.6 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2025-12-15 | 2025/11 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 24888 | 25660 | 23288 | | 2025-12-12 | 2025/11 | M0:同比 | % | 10.6 | 11.7 | 12.7 | | 2025-12-12 | 202 ...

2026年1月8日，A股和港股彻底走出"冰火两重天"！ A股这边，沪指微跌0.07%还能守住15连阳，韧性超出所有人预期；港股那边，三大指数集体跳水，全 面承压。 这种"内强外弱"的格局，不是偶然！背后是政策、资金、产业趋势三重发力，看懂的人已经找准方向 了。 先上核心数据，快速摸清全局： A股主要指数分化明显，科创50最牛，上涨0.82%报1455.17点，妥妥的主线风向标；沪指微跌0.07%收 4082.98点，15连阳的走势，直接说明市场核心支撑没断。 不过成长板块内部有分歧，深证成指跌0.51%，创业板指跌0.82%，不是所有成长股都能涨。 量能是关键！全天A股成交额2.83万亿元，高位站稳，还有3700多只个股上涨，市场情绪整体偏乐观， 资金做多意愿还在。 再看港股，简直是另一番天地： 恒生指数跌1.17%报26149.31点，恒生科技指数跌1.05%报5678.34点，恒生中国企业指数跌1.09%报 9039.34点。 为啥跌这么狠？核心是外资谨慎了！一方面担心海外流动性变化，另一方面部分科技股赚了钱就跑，加 重了板块压力。 板块涨跌分化超明显，赚钱效应全在这几个方向！ 有人赚钱就有人亏，跌幅榜主 ...

今天是2026年1月8日，A股市场为我们呈现了一幅经典的结构性行情图景。上证指数虽然仅微跌 0.07%，收于4082.98点，但这已是其连续第15个交易日收出阳线，这种在震荡中保持顽强向上的趋势， 本身就传递出市场内在的积极信号。 与此同时，代表硬科技的科创50指数逆势上涨0.82%，而深成指与创业板指则小幅回调。全市场成交额 维持在2.83万亿元的高位，超过3700只个股上涨，说明场内赚钱效应显著，资金并未离场，只是在积极 地调仓换股。相比之下，港股市场则全面走弱，恒生指数下跌1.17%，凸显出当前市场"内强外弱"的资 金情绪特征。 第一层逻辑：商业航天进入"常态化"拐点，从故事迈向订单。 军工板块今日的焦点是商业航天。直接催化剂是星河动力宣布近期将实施海上发射任务。这一事件的关 键意义在于，它标志着中国民营航天正从早期的技术验证，稳步迈向高频次、常态化的商业发射阶段。 当发射任务从新闻变成可预期的商业日程时，整个产业链——从火箭制造、发射服务到卫星应用——的 业绩闭环便具备了可跟踪、可评估的现实基础。 市场以银河电子4连板、中国一重等多股涨停来回应，这不仅仅是概念炒作，更是对产业即将迎来"密集 订单催化期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kuanyuan Asset outlines its investment strategies for 2026, reflecting on the performance of 2025 and identifying potential market opportunities. The firm anticipates a continued upward trend in the securities market, with the Shanghai Composite Index potentially exceeding 4500 points in 2026 [7][50][112]. Investment Performance in 2025 - Kuanyuan Asset achieved significant contributions from heavily invested Hong Kong internet companies, maintaining high positions despite market volatility [9][76]. - The firm strategically positioned itself in the chemical sector early in the year, which eventually yielded positive results despite the sector's overall struggles [10][77]. - Investments in the machinery sector were increased, focusing on companies with strong competitive advantages and reasonable valuations [11][79]. - Bank stocks contributed to performance but had limited impact relative to their holding proportions [14][81]. - The firm missed opportunities in the hot sectors of non-ferrous metals and artificial intelligence, which significantly outperformed the market [15][82]. Market Outlook for 2026 - Key factors influencing the Chinese securities market include stable national policies, ongoing international relations, and the real estate sector's recovery [19][85]. - The firm expects the Shanghai Composite Index to maintain a volatile upward trend, with a target above 4500 points [50][112]. - The real estate market is nearing a bottom, with sales expected to decline by 13% in 2025, but stabilization is anticipated to support overall economic recovery [30][32][94]. Valuation and Market Conditions - The current valuation metrics indicate that the Chinese stock market remains relatively undervalued compared to developed countries, with a dynamic PE of 14 times for the CSI 300 and a dividend yield of 2.78% [8][34][47]. - The trade surplus is projected to exceed $1.2 trillion in 2025, enhancing China's competitive position in global markets [35][102]. - The firm emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies that effectively integrate AI technology into their business models for sustainable growth [41][43]. Sector-Specific Insights - The internet sector is expected to continue benefiting from improved regulatory environments and stable earnings growth, despite previous price increases [55][117]. - The machinery sector is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly with the rise of humanoid robots, which could drive significant performance improvements [56][119]. - The home appliance sector is currently undervalued, with potential for recovery as companies adapt to market conditions and maintain growth despite challenges [120]. - The food and beverage industry remains in a downturn, but opportunities may arise if prices stabilize after a prolonged decline [121][122]. Global Trade Dynamics - The report notes that China's trade surplus may lead to increased scrutiny and potential tariffs from other nations, impacting global trade relations [62][123]. - Companies with global manufacturing capabilities are expected to benefit from these dynamics, as they can better navigate trade barriers [64][125]. Conclusion - Kuanyuan Asset's investment strategy for 2026 reflects a cautious optimism, focusing on sectors with growth potential while remaining vigilant about market volatility and geopolitical risks [51][115].

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科技日报记者 刘园园 据介绍，此次发布的"坤安"2.0，是中铝集团以国家战略需求为指引，紧密围绕行业痛点难点，将人工智能技术全面融入有色金属工业全链条，构建的覆盖 生产全流程的智能化发展体系。"坤安"2.0将驱动地质勘探、矿产开采、冶炼加工、再生利用等全场景业务流程变革。 大会期间还举行了有色金属行业高质量数据集联盟成立仪式和"坤安杯"AI应用创新大赛颁奖仪式，发布了《面向有色金属行业数智化安全治理框架》。 推动人工智能与实体经济深度融合，是有色金属行业迈向高质量发展、培育新质生产力的必由之路。中铝集团持续推动人工智能科技创新与产业创新深度融 合，示范引领行业数智化转型升级。2024年12月，中国有色金属工业协会与中铝集团共同发布有色金属行业首个人工智能大模型"坤安"及18个具有行业推广 潜力的场景落地应用。2025年以来，中铝集团将人工智能的触角深入产业核心环节，推进建设百余个应用场景。此次成果发布会从中筛选出52个场景正式发 布，建成8个行业高质量数据集，在行业全领域场景落地应用中取得显著成效。 据悉，有色金属行业高质量数据集联盟由中国有色金属工业协会和中铝集团联合发起，首批10家成员单位涵盖有色金属行业 ...

1月8日，A股市场整体涨跌互现。 截至收盘，上证指数收报4082.98点，下跌0.07%，深证成指收报13959.48点，下跌0.51%，创业板指收报3302.31点，下跌0.82%，北证50指数上涨0.81%。 1.A股市场全天主力资金净流出374.35亿元 今日A股市场主力资金开盘净流出163.14亿元，尾盘净流出6.58亿元，A股市场全天主力资金净流出374.35亿元。 | | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 分流入金额 开盘净流入 | | 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | 2026-1-8 | -374. 35 | -163.14 | -6. 58 | -144.92 | | 2026-1-7 | -471.98 | -191. 26 | 8. 31 | -213.68 | | 2026-1-6 | -176. 68 | -147.71 | 18. 05 | 33. 67 | | 2026-1-5 | -62.98 | -54. 18 | 17. 34 | 90. 80 | | 2025-12-3 ...

1月8日，A股市场整体涨跌互现。 | | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 人说史趣片 舞台人娱地 | | 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | 2026-1-8 | -374. 35 | -163.14 | -6. 58 | -144.92 | | 2026-1-7 | -471.98 | -191. 26 | 8. 31 | -213.68 | | 2026-1-6 | -176. 68 | -147.71 | 18. 05 | 33. 67 | | 2026-1-5 | -62.98 | -54. 18 | 17. 34 | 90. 80 | | 2025-12-31 | -270. 79 | -129.42 | -36. 63 | -63.89 | 截至收盘，上证指数收报4082.98点，下跌0.07%，深证成指收报13959.48点，下跌0.51%，创业板指收报3302.31点，下跌0.82%，北证50指数上涨0.81%。 2. 沪深300今日主力资金净流出191.54亿元 1. A股市场全天主力资金 ...

伦敦金属交易所(LME)期铜下跌0.6%，至每吨12,786美元，此前在本周早些时候，受供应收紧和美国关 税不确定性的担忧影响，期铜曾飙升至纪录新高。 1月8日（周四），铜价回落，随着交易商锁定利润，价格跌破每吨13,000美元的关口。 （文华综合） 三菱日联(MUFG)的Soojin Kim表示："虽然铜的长期前景依然看涨，但此轮涨势的速度（去年上涨超过 40%，为2009年以来最强劲的涨幅）已经加大了随着获利了结出现而大幅回调的风险。" ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that in 2025, the A-share market will see significant inflows from active funds such as leveraged and private equity funds, while insurance capital will also play a substantial role, contrasting with the overall net redemption of actively managed public funds [1][2][4] - The primary source of incoming funds is expected to shift towards high-net-worth individuals, with ordinary residents likely becoming the main contributors by 2026 as their risk appetite recovers from low levels [1][3] - The macroeconomic and microeconomic context of 2025 shows similarities to 2020, but the structure of incremental funds differs, leading to an estimated total inflow of 2 trillion yuan for 2026 [1][4] Group 2 - In 2025, the A-share market's performance is supported by a robust funding environment, with inflows categorized into two phases: the first half of the year saw a recovery in the market, while the third quarter experienced significant inflows from private equity and leveraged trading [2][19] - The first half of 2025 saw a total inflow of approximately 4.2 billion yuan from insurance funds, 2.4 billion yuan from retail investors, and 1 billion yuan from foreign capital, with a notable focus on technology and dividend sectors [2][14] - The third quarter marked a substantial increase in leveraged funds, with around 7 billion yuan entering the market, and private equity funds also significantly increased their market presence, contributing approximately 4 billion yuan [19][20] Group 3 - The process of resident funds entering the market is still in its early stages, primarily driven by high-net-worth individuals, as evidenced by a survey indicating an increase in investment willingness among 18.5% of urban depositors [3][32] - Despite signs of recovery in risk appetite among residents, the majority of funds entering the market are still from high-risk tolerant individuals, with broader participation from the general public remaining limited [3][36] - The overall risk appetite of residents remains low, with many still favoring low-risk investment products, which may hinder a more significant influx of resident funds into the market [36][41] Group 4 - The expected net inflow of funds for 2026 is projected to reach 2 trillion yuan, with contributions anticipated from retail investors, insurance capital, and improved public and foreign fund participation [4][55] - The inflow sources for 2026 include an estimated 10 billion yuan from retail active funds, 7 billion yuan from insurance capital, and 9.5 billion yuan from corporate dividends, indicating a diverse funding landscape [57][58] - The outflow of funds is expected to increase alongside market sentiment recovery, with projections for IPOs and refinancing activities to rise significantly, reflecting a more active capital market environment [58][59]