公司近况 2026 年初以来老铺黄金延续良好的品牌势能和销售表现。随着春节、情人节等行业旺季来临，叠加金 饰行业的提价预期，我们预计公司有望继续实现良好的终端表现。 评论 品牌势能延续，金价上涨短期影响2H25 毛利。我们观察到老铺黄金品牌势能延续强势，多地门店客流 活跃。渠道端看，公司2H25 继续推进门店优化升级，在香港IFC，上海恒隆广场、深圳湾万象城等重 点商圈新增门店，并优化多家已有店铺，进一步提升品牌影响力与渠道质量，带来了品牌高级感的持续 提升。虽然2H25 公司在 8 月/10 月两次上调产品价格，但考虑到金价快速上涨及产品销售节奏（上海金 交所AU9999 现货收盘价1H25/2H25分别上涨24%/28%），我们预计公司2H25 毛利端仍存在压力。 2026 年初终端销售实现优秀表现。2026 年初老铺黄金继续推出新品午马系列，有效结合中国传统文化 元素与精致制作工艺。在公司品牌力和产品力的加持下，我们预计元旦期间公司国内同店及整体销售分 别实现双位数与三位数同比增长。全年来看，我们预计2026 年老铺黄金国内仍以门店优化为主，海外 市场如日本、新加坡仍有拓店空间。公司在经历了2024-2 ...

如果你琢磨的是投资，想低买高卖，那情况就复杂得多。现在的回调，是不是一个理想的"买点"？没人能给出肯定答案。对于新手来说，最忌讳的就是抱 着"抄底"的心态一把全投进去。更稳妥的思路，或许是把它看作一个"观察窗口"和"学习机会"。你可以开始关注黄金相关的信息，了解影响金价的因素，甚 至用很小一部分闲钱，尝试通过银行积存金等渠道做做"定投"，感受一下市场的脉搏。记住，对普通人来说，黄金投资更多是长期资产配置的一部分，用来 平衡风险，而不是短期博弈的工具。 "好家伙，前几天还说金价破纪录了，这转头又掉下来了？这过山车坐的，心脏真受不了。"最近但凡关心点金价的，估计都有这个感觉。眼瞅着金价从高位 回落，银价又逆势涨了点，市场消息也是一天一个样。咱们普通老百姓，到底是该趁机"捡个漏"，还是得捂紧口袋再等等？ 金价回落，是"假摔"还是真调整？ 这次金价回调，确实引人关注。国际金价从高点下来，国内基础金价也回到每克一千零四十多的水平。这信号该怎么看？首先，这太正常了。哪有只涨不跌 的市场呢？金价前期冲得太猛，积累了大量的获利盘，就像一根弹簧绷得太紧，总要松一松。这种回调，是市场自身在消化、在整固，不一定意味着上涨趋 势就结 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese consumer sector is showing signs of recovery in early 2026 after a five-year underperformance period from 2021 to 2025, driven by a combination of policy support and structural differentiation in demand [1] - The report highlights that the risk-reward ratio for Chinese consumer stocks is now attractive due to valuation advantages and profit resilience, with a focus on sector differentiation and company-specific opportunities [1] Industry Fundamentals: Mild Recovery Under Pressure - The current landscape of the Chinese consumer industry is characterized by "weak demand recovery and profit repair," with retail sales growth slowing to 1.3% year-on-year in November 2025 [2] - Forecasts suggest retail sales growth will remain at 2.6% and 2.5% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, amid a GDP growth slowdown to 4.5% and 4.1% [2] - Profit expectations for 2025 have been downgraded, with projected sales and net profit growth of only 3.7% and 8.8%, respectively, indicating potential further downward revisions if no additional stimulus is implemented [2] Core Trends Iteration: Restructuring Competitive Landscape - Price deflation has become a significant characteristic of the industry, with notable declines in key products, such as the price of Feitian Moutai dropping over 60% from its peak [3] - The trend of industry consolidation is accelerating, with leading companies leveraging cost control and digital technologies to capture market share from smaller brands [3] Changes in Consumer Behavior: Affordable Self-Indulgence and Experience-Driven Consumption - In the context of consumption downgrade, "affordable self-indulgence" has emerged as a core logic for younger consumers, who are price-sensitive yet willing to pay for emotional value and experiences [4] - Successful strategies in this segment involve differentiation, as seen with companies like Pop Mart, which utilizes a multi-IP matrix to mitigate risks associated with single IP lifecycle [4] Overseas Expansion and Demographic Restructuring Growth Logic - To counter domestic growth challenges, leading companies in sectors like home appliances and sportswear are accelerating their overseas expansion, benefiting from stronger demand and more rational competition [6] - The ongoing demographic shift, including a declining birth rate and an aging population, presents both challenges and opportunities for various sectors, driving demand growth in areas like personal care and elder services [6] Global Perspective: Valuation Advantages of Chinese Consumer Stocks - After five years of adjustment, the valuation bubble in the Chinese consumer sector has significantly compressed, with a projected P/E ratio of 17 times for 2026, lower than several other markets [7] - Notable performers since early 2026 include brands like Gu Ming and Li Ning, reflecting market recognition of quality leading companies [7] Transition from High Growth to Steady Defensive Full-Spectrum Layout - The Chinese consumer industry is transitioning from a "same rise and fall" cycle to an era where "structure is king," supported by policy measures and evolving consumption trends [8] Recommended Investment Targets - JPMorgan highlights six key investment targets across different sectors, including Laopu Gold, Luckin Coffee, and Pop Mart, focusing on companies that benefit from policy support and have strong competitive advantages [9] - Investment strategies should concentrate on sectors benefiting from policy stimulus, affordable self-indulgence trends, and those with overseas expansion capabilities to navigate domestic growth challenges [9]

Core Viewpoint - The luxury goods industry is at a crossroads of price and value imbalance, with the brand Laopugold leading the way into a new era of value consumption through cultural, craftsmanship, aesthetic, and genuine product value [2][12]. Industry Overview - By 2025, Laopugold is expected to disrupt the long-standing dominance of Western brands in China's high-end consumer market, as it experiences a contrasting growth amidst a global slowdown in luxury goods [2][12]. - Bain & Company reports that the global luxury market is entering a critical adjustment phase, with the Chinese market projected to shrink by 3% to 5% from 2022 to 2025, and active customers decreasing from 400 million to 330 million [4]. - There is a notable shift among high-net-worth individuals who are increasingly reluctant to display overt logos, indicating a move away from "symbolic consumption" towards a more intrinsic value-based approach [4][5]. Shift in Consumer Behavior - Similar to the changes seen in Japan during the 1990s, Chinese consumers are moving away from ostentatious consumption towards brands that represent cultural depth and time-honored values [5][10]. - Laopugold's success is attributed to its focus on cultural assets and craftsmanship, appealing to consumers' desire for products that embody time and cultural significance [7][10]. Laopugold's Unique Value Proposition - Laopugold emphasizes craftsmanship through traditional techniques such as engraving and hammering, which enhances perceived value beyond just the gold price [9]. - The brand has established a stable Eastern aesthetic logic that prioritizes both classic and innovative designs, allowing products to transcend fleeting trends [9]. - Laopugold integrates Chinese cultural elements into its designs, creating a strong emotional connection with consumers [9][10]. Market Position and Future Outlook - In 2025, Laopugold is projected to become the only Chinese brand present in the top 10 commercial centers in China, with a half-year store efficiency nearing 500 million, surpassing that of leading international luxury brands [12][14]. - HSBC notes that Laopugold has transitioned from a "golden flywheel" to a "brand flywheel," establishing pricing power independent of gold price fluctuations, positioning it to compete with luxury giants like Tiffany and Richemont [14]. - The rise of Laopugold signifies a shift in the luxury market, moving from a focus on price wars to a new value system based on product quality, channel strategy, and brand establishment [14][15].

20日亚洲交易时段，受美国威胁对欧洲多国加征关税推高投资者避险需求影响，国际贵金属价格继续走 高，纽约黄金期货价格当天盘中一度突破每盎司4700美元，白银期货价格最高一度触及每盎司94.75美 元，国际金价和银价再次刷新盘中历史新高。 截至北京时间20日13时40分，纽约商品交易所交投最活跃的2月黄金期价报4710.11美元/盎司，涨幅达 2.5%；交投最活跃的3月白银期价报94.42美元/盎司，涨幅达6.64%。 在许多网络社交平台，水贝"投资铜条"也引起了热议，还流传出许多"投资铜条"实物图。 深圳水贝是国内最大的黄金珠宝集散地，就在这个月，金座、银座、特力等市场的不少商家试探性地推 出了纯铜999.9的投资铜条，规格有500克和1000克，不过以1000克居多，一根1000克的投资铜条的报价 从180元至280元。 在杭州市场，也有投资客开始关注投资铜条。杭州老福林打金店老板老林说，今日有客人在买银条时候 提到最近铜在涨价，问店里有没有投资铜条卖。"在大众认知里铜很廉价，买得少没有多少增值，买得 多又没地方放，以后回收也是个问题。" 那么，投资铜条的交易情况到底如何？ 一位水贝商家说，这两天问的人比较多 ...

Price Trends - Domestic gold prices showed a noticeable slowdown today, with most brands maintaining stable prices. Lao Miao gold experienced a slight decrease of 4 yuan per gram, priced at 1455 yuan per gram, while Chow Sang Sang saw a rare increase of 3 yuan per gram [1] - The market's high-low price difference narrowed slightly to 46 yuan per gram compared to the previous day [1] Brand Pricing - Detailed pricing for major gold brands today includes: - Lao Miao Gold: 1455 yuan/gram (down 4) - Liufu Gold: 1453 yuan/gram (no change) - Chow Tai Fook Gold: 1455 yuan/gram (no change) - Zhou Liufu Gold: 1440 yuan/gram (no change) - Jin Zun Gold: 1453 yuan/gram (no change) - Lao Feng Xiang Gold: 1456 yuan/gram (no change) - Chao Hong Ji Gold: 1455 yuan/gram (no change) - Zhou Sheng Sheng Gold: 1454 yuan/gram (up 3) - Cai Bai Gold: 1410 yuan/gram (no change) - Shanghai China Gold: 1412 yuan/gram (no change) [2][3] Platinum Prices - Platinum jewelry prices saw a slight increase, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum jewelry rising by 1 yuan per gram to 941 yuan per gram [4] Gold Recovery Prices - Gold recovery prices showed some fluctuations, with notable differences among brands: - Gold recovery price: 1036.60 yuan/gram - Cai Bai Gold: 1072.80 yuan/gram - Zhou Sheng Sheng Gold: 1061.40 yuan/gram - Chow Tai Fook Gold: 1011.00 yuan/gram - Lao Feng Xiang Gold: 1032.63 yuan/gram [4] International Gold Market - The international gold market reacted to potential tariff wars between the US and Europe, with spot gold reaching a record high of 4689.39 USD/ounce before closing at 4669.70 USD/ounce, marking a 1.59% increase. Today, spot gold surpassed the previous high, currently priced at 4712.93 USD/ounce, with a 0.93% increase [6] - Analysts suggest that the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with a significant possibility of prices exceeding 5000 USD/ounce within the next six to nine months, estimated at a probability of 30% to 40% [6]

Group 1 - The spot gold price surged to a historic high of $4,700 per ounce, marking an increase of over 8% in January, equivalent to more than $380 [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have continued to rise, with multiple brands reporting prices above ¥1,450 per gram, including Chow Sang Sang at ¥1,454, Lao Feng Xiang at ¥1,456, and Lao Miao Gold at ¥1,455 [1] Group 2 - Recent reports indicate that precious metals are experiencing upward volatility due to increased risk aversion stemming from U.S. tariffs on European countries and the criminal charges against Powell, which challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve and undermine the credibility of the U.S. dollar [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has significantly reduced the trading limit for silver to 3,000 contracts per day, which may eliminate some speculative leverage and suppress short-term speculative demand [2] - Future focus will be on the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair, U.S.-EU tariff disputes, and geopolitical influences from South America and Greenland [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in spot gold prices, which have reached a new historical high, indicating strong market demand and potential investment opportunities in the gold sector [2]. Gold Market Performance - On the afternoon of the 20th, spot gold prices surged, breaking through $4,700 and reaching a peak of $4,700.480, with a current price of $4,698.257 per ounce, reflecting a 0.62% increase [2][3]. - Year-to-date, spot gold has appreciated over 8% [2]. Domestic Gold Jewelry Prices - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also seen a continuous increase, with multiple brands reporting prices above 1,450 yuan per gram. For instance, Chow Sang Sang quoted 1,454 yuan per gram, an increase of 25 yuan over two days, while Lao Feng Xiang and Lao Miao Jin Huang quoted 1,456 yuan and 1,455 yuan per gram, respectively [4][5]. Global Gold ETF Trends - The World Gold Council reported that in 2025, gold prices set new records 53 times, with global gold ETF inflows reaching $89 billion. As of January 14, the Huaan Gold ETF's latest share reached 10.162 billion shares, surpassing 100 billion yuan, marking a historical high of 100.762 billion yuan [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that China's social consumer goods growth in December 2025 was lower than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, which is below the market consensus of 1.5% [1] - The report highlights that the high base effect from previous years will continue to suppress overall growth, but essential consumption categories such as food, gold, and cosmetics show structural strengths [1] - The report anticipates that policies aimed at boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand will be intensively implemented, supporting a gradual recovery in the consumer market in 2026 [1] Group 2 - Online consumption growth has slowed, while offline retail is accelerating innovation and transformation, leading to stable growth [2] - In December, the online retail sales reached 12,730 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, while the overall online retail growth for the year was 8.6%, outperforming the total retail growth by 4.9 percentage points [2] - The retail industry is shifting towards quality-driven and service-driven models, with significant growth in convenience stores and specialty shops [2] Group 3 - In December, the retail sales of goods increased by 0.7% year-on-year, while service consumption continued to show an accelerating growth trend [3] - The service sector's production index grew by 5.0% year-on-year, with the total service retail sales for the year increasing by 5.5% [3] - The restaurant sector showed signs of recovery, with revenue reaching 5,738 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [3] Group 4 - The high base effect from previous government subsidies continues to impact the performance of certain discretionary consumer goods, while essential consumer goods maintain resilience [4] - In December, categories such as communication, food, daily necessities, and beverages saw significant year-on-year growth, while categories like home appliances and furniture faced pressure [4] - The report suggests that with the upcoming Spring Festival and the implementation of policies supporting consumption upgrades, there is potential for strong growth in investment gold and high-quality gold jewelry [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, driven by geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties, particularly following the announcement of punitive tariffs by the U.S. on several European countries [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 19, gold prices surged by 1.73% to $4,675.213 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4,690 per ounce [3]. - Silver prices increased by 3.75%, reaching $93.514 per ounce, with a peak of $94.12 per ounce during the day [3]. - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.81% to $4,678.4 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures jumped by 5.44% to $93.35 per ounce [3]. Group 2: Factors Behind the Surge - The price increase was triggered by U.S. President Trump's announcement of a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries, which could rise to 25% if disputes continue [4][5]. - This geopolitical move has heightened market fears and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent price surge reflects both immediate reactions to geopolitical risks and underlying structural trends in the precious metals market [6]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases, despite potential short-term volatility [7]. - Silver's price dynamics are more complex, influenced by industrial demand and potential supply constraints, which may support higher prices in the long run [7][8].