1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the domestic commodity futures market is mostly downward, with significant drops in precious metals and base metals, while some energy - chemical products show slight increases. In the financial market, the A - share market has different performance trends in various sectors, and the real estate market shows signs of stabilization. The global economic and political situation is complex, with potential impacts on the financial and commodity markets [4][41][42] 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - In the domestic commodity futures market on the 30th, most products closed lower. Shanghai silver hit the daily limit down with a 17% drop, Shanghai gold fell over 9%, and other metals like Shanghai tin, copper, and nickel also had significant declines. However, caustic soda rose nearly 3% and PVC rose over 2%. In the London base metals market, all metals declined. In the oil market, the US oil and Brent oil main contracts rose slightly, and the increase in net long positions in Brent crude reflected a bullish sentiment [4] Important Information Macroeconomic Information - Israel and the US are collaborating on potential military actions against Iran. China's National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the capacity price mechanism on the power generation side. In 2025, China's national general public budget revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan, a 1.7% decrease from 2024. Shipping indices declined, while the prices of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased at the end of 2025, and the price of thermal coal also rose. The China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited opinions on regulatory changes, and Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the Fed Chair. The Fed's Bostic suggested no need for interest rate cuts. The manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point drop from the previous month [7][8][9][11][12] Energy - Chemical Futures - The output and capacity utilization of Chinese styrene factories decreased slightly in the week ending January 29. The US relaxed sanctions on Venezuela's downstream oil production. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increase in March 2026 due to seasonal factors [14][15][16] Metal Futures - The Thai Futures Exchange temporarily suspended trading of online gold futures. Chinese banks issued risk warnings and adjusted business rules for precious metal investments. The price of Indonesian nickel ore increased, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange will conduct a simulation trading of nickel futures and options. The lithium ore sector declined, but companies reported normal operations. A lead refinery in East China planned to suspend production, and the Osaka Exchange triggered a "circuit - breaker" for platinum futures. The production and sales of lithium concentrate by Pilbara had different trends, and the margin requirements for gold and silver futures were increased [18][21][23][26][27] Black - Series Futures - China adjusted the lower limit of the medium - and long - term coal - power market trading price. In 2025, China's steel exports increased in volume but decreased in price. The purchase prices of coke by steel mills in Shandong and Hebei increased. A coal mine in Inner Mongolia passed the resumption inspection. The inventory and daily throughput of imported iron ore in ports changed, and the situation of steel mills' production and profitability also had corresponding changes. The Indonesian coal industry faced production quota cuts [29][31][33] Agricultural Product Futures - Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in February. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased in the 5th week of 2026. The inventory of imported cotton at ports increased, and the pig - breeding profits changed. The soybean sowing in Argentina was almost completed, and the global sugar supply balance and Brazilian sugar production forecasts were adjusted [35][37][38] Financial Market Finance - From a resource boom to a cycle boom, the price - increase clues may run through the first quarter in the A - share market. The performance forecasts of A - share listed companies in 2025 showed different results in various industries. The performance of 29 securities firms in 2025 was mostly positive. The February gold - stock lists of securities firms were concentrated in certain industries, and the semiconductor and real estate sectors had different performance trends. The telecom service VAT rate of Chinese telecom companies was adjusted, and a fund had a trading suspension [40][41][42][43] Industry - In 2025, the "trade - in" policy boosted the sales revenue of household appliances and communication equipment retail industries, and rural consumption increased. China's shipbuilding industry maintained its leading position globally. Most domestic car companies had year - on - year sales growth in January. The price of second - hand housing in 100 cities decreased, while the new - house price had a structural increase. The global AI computing power construction drove the upgrade of power - equipment transformers. The scale of "fixed - income +" funds reached a record high [45][46][47] Overseas - Trump hoped the Fed Chair nominee Warsh could lower interest rates. A new round of tripartite talks between Ukraine, the US, and Russia was scheduled. The Indian government's borrowing in the 2026 - 27 fiscal year would reach a record high, and the deficit and debt - to - GDP ratios were expected to change. South Korea's semiconductor exports in January increased significantly, driving up the total export volume [48] International Stock Markets - The Indian and Saudi stock markets tumbled on February 1. India's proposed increase in securities trading taxes on stock index futures and options led to a sharp decline in the Indian stock market, and the Saudi stock market also had a significant drop [49] Commodity - The international gold price had the largest single - day decline in 40 years on January 30, and experts advised caution. The price of pure benzene rebounded strongly in January [50] Bond - Convertible bond funds became the focus in the context of the overall underperformance of bond funds, with some funds having high yields [51] Foreign Exchange - New regulations on RMB cash payment came into effect on February 1, and the Bulgarian lev withdrew from circulation on the same day [52][54] Upcoming Events - The Bank of Japan will release the summary of the January monetary policy meeting, the People's Bank of China will have 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England will give a speech, the Asia Virtual Reality XR Industry Exhibition will be held, there will be new stock subscriptions, and the Atlanta Fed President will speak [56]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on January 30, 2026, was 5300.00 [3] - Compared to the previous day, the price decreased by 1.63326% [3] - The discount to the US dollar price was 666.08 [3] Import Profit Information - For Canadian pulp brands, the import profit of Golden Lion was 104.27, while that of Lion was -448.06 [4] - The import profit of Chilean Silver Star pulp was -192.45 [4] Price Averages and Changes - From January 26 - 30, 2026, the national and Shandong regional average prices of针叶浆,阔叶浆,本色浆, and 化机浆 remained unchanged [5] - During the same period, the indices of cultural paper, packaging paper, and living paper also remained unchanged [5] - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white cardboard, and living paper showed no changes [5] - The differences between 针叶浆 and other types of pulp (阔叶浆, 本色浆, 化机浆, and waste paper) had minor changes during January 26 - 30, 2026 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue its oscillatory trend, with the supply - demand pattern weakening and the ore price remaining volatile [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are both "oscillatory", and the intraday trend is "oscillatory and weak". The overall view is that it will oscillate, with the core logic being the weakening supply - demand pattern and the continuation of the oscillatory trend of the ore price [2] 2. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed little. Steel mill production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore is at a low level. The industrial contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and ore demand remains weak. Although domestic port arrivals have continued to decline, miner shipments are stabilizing, and the subsequent arrival reduction is limited according to the shipping schedule. Domestic ore supply is stable, and with high inventory, supply pressure still exists. The positive factor is pre - holiday replenishment. Overall, the ore price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill replenishment [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the domestic stock index futures market showed significant structural differentiation. The large - cap blue - chip futures were relatively resilient, while the small and medium - cap index futures generally declined. The market experienced a process from high - sentiment and high - volume trading at the beginning of the month to style switching and shock convergence under the influence of macro - data in the second half of the month. The market was affected by short - term economic data disturbances and high overall valuations. In the future, the market is expected to shift from emotional fluctuations to a fundamental verification stage, and market opportunities may be more in a structural form [6][34][35] - The decline in macro - data suppressed the overall risk appetite of the market, which was the direct catalyst for the style switching and the adjustment of small and medium - cap index futures. High valuations amplified market volatility, and more unexpected positive factors were needed to drive the market up [35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Stock Index Futures**: In January, large - cap blue - chip futures were resilient, with the Shanghai 50 futures (IH) rising slightly monthly. Small and medium - cap index futures generally declined, with the CSI 500 futures (IC) and CSI 1000 futures (IM) having significant monthly declines. The specific data of the main futures contracts are as follows: the closing price of the CSI 300 futures (IF) on January 30 was 4,711.0, with a monthly increase of 0.04% (1.8); the closing price of the Shanghai 50 futures (IH) was 3,074.0, with a monthly increase of 1.19% (36.2); the closing price of the CSI 500 futures (IC) was 8,362.4, with a monthly decrease of 3.42% (- 295.8); the closing price of the CSI 1000 futures (IM) was 8,260.6, with a monthly decrease of 3.01% (- 256.0) [6] - **Bond Futures**: In January, all bond futures declined. The closing price of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures on January 30 was 111.920, with a monthly decrease of 0.33% (- 0.37); the closing price of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 108.310, with a monthly increase of 0.10% (0.110); the closing price of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures was 105.890, with a monthly decrease of 0.01% (- 0.015); the closing price of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 102.394, with a monthly decrease of 0.02% (- 0.022) [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In January, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [8] - In January, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [12] - In January, the composite PMI output index was 49.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and business activities of Chinese enterprises slowed down compared with the previous month [13] 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of January 30, the PE of the CSI 300 index was 14.18 times, the percentile was 85.88%, and the PB was 1.49 times; the PE of the Shanghai 50 index was 11.72 times, the percentile was 85.1%, and the PB was 1.29 times; the PE of the CSI 500 index was 37.93 times, the percentile was 87.65%, and the PB was 2.61 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 index was 50.27 times, the percentile was 82.94%, and the PB was 2.68 times [15] 3.4 Other Data - **Stock - Bond Yield Spread**: The stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market return rate and the Treasury bond yield rate. There are two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [27] - **China - Buffett Index**: On January 30, 2026, the ratio of the total market value to GDP was 91.71%. The current "total market value/GDP" percentile in historical data was 91.68%, and in the data of the past 10 years, it was 95.67% [31] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - Macro - economically, the macro - economic data released in January affected market sentiment. The decline of PMI indices in manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and the composite index below the critical point indicated a short - term slowdown in economic activities, which triggered market concerns about the fundamentals and led to a shift of funds from high - elasticity sectors to defensive sectors. However, there were positive differentiations in the data: the PMI of high - tech manufacturing remained in a high - prosperity range, and the raw material and ex - factory price indices rebounded, indicating possible marginal improvement in corporate profit expectations [34] - In terms of valuation, although the market adjusted, the valuation pressure of major indices was still obvious. The valuation percentiles of the CSI 300 index and the Shanghai 50 index were at relatively high historical levels, the valuation percentile of the CSI 500 index was close to the historical high, and the ratio of the total market value to GDP was also in a high - percentile range. High overall valuations made the market more sensitive to negative information and limited the space for further rapid valuation increase [34] 3.6 Operational Suggestions - **Unilateral Trading**: It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see. Before the macro - signals and valuation pressure are significantly improved, wait patiently for clearer stabilization signals and avoid blindly chasing up or bottom - fishing [36] - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the spread - convergence strategy of going long on IH and shorting IM. If the market's expectation of economic recovery turns moderate, the large - cap style with stable profits and relatively reasonable valuations may continue to show its defensive allocation value [36] - **Options**: For investors holding spot stocks, they can use the covered - call strategy to increase returns. At the same time, to prevent uncertain risks, they can consider buying an appropriate amount of out - of - the - money put options for downside protection [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp decline in precious metals suppresses the atmosphere of non - ferrous metals, and short - term panic still has a suppressing effect. However, in the long run, the outlook is not pessimistic. Copper prices are expected to gradually stabilize, aluminum prices may stabilize under certain conditions, and different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends [3][5][6]. - The market may return to real - world trading. Tin prices may face a significant correction risk in the short term, nickel prices have a large risk of decline, and lithium prices face pressure but may have short - term support at the bottom [15][17][19]. - The stainless steel price has strong support at the bottom, and a long - position layout can be considered at around 14,000 yuan/ton [25]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, LME copper 3M closed down 4.63% to $13,070/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 103,190 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,100 to 174,975 tons, and the domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange weekly inventory increased by 0.7 to 233,000 tons [2]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The supply of copper mines remains tight, the supply of refined copper in China maintains high growth, and the downstream consumption willingness recovers after the copper price drops. The expected surplus is alleviated, and copper prices are expected to gradually stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 102,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $12,600 - $13,500/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Friday, LME aluminum closed down 3.03% to $3,135/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,600 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 63,000 to 742,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,000 to 145,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased slightly [4]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Domestic inventories are accumulating, but it does not constitute a major negative for prices. LME aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing support for aluminum prices. If the volatility of precious metals decreases and domestic inventories perform better than the seasonal average, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 24,300 - 25,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,080 - $3,180/ton [5][6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy dropped sharply. The main AD2603 contract closed down 4.32% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position increased to 23,900 lots, and the trading volume was 45,500 lots. The warehouse receipts decreased by 400 to 68,200 tons [8]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Although the demand is relatively average, in the context of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the price has short - term support [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 1.69% to 16,918 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell by $42 to $2,004/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,675 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons [10]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the smelting profit is supported by high - priced silver, the TC is at a low level, the primary lead production rate remains relatively high, and the primary lead ingot inventory is accumulating. The inventory of recycled waste has increased, the recycled smelting profit has slightly declined, but the recycled lead production rate has increased marginally. The downstream battery enterprise production rate has slightly declined. The industry situation is weak. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2 on the sector sentiment [11][12]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.46% to 25,860 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell by $62.5 to $3,399/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 25,790 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 109,800 tons [13]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: In the industrial sector, the zinc ore raw material inventory has increased, the decline rate of zinc ore has slowed down. The LME zinc ingot inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the LME zinc 3 - 15 month spread has increased. The overseas natural gas price has increased, causing concerns about the cost of European smelting enterprises. The zinc price is still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2 on the sector sentiment [13]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 30, the tin price冲高回落, and the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 409,000 yuan/ton, down 8.32% from the previous day. The SHFE inventory increased by 30 to 8,524 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 7,095 tons [14]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: In the context of the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, it is expected that the tin price may have a large correction risk in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $47,000 - $51,000/ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 30, the nickel price dropped significantly, and the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 140,000 yuan/ton, down 5.07% from the previous day. The spot market premiums remained stable. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price fluctuated upward [16]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The nickel price has a large risk of decline in the short term. The market may return to real - world trading, and the high premium of refined nickel over nickel iron and the significant increase in domestic nickel inventory put pressure on the nickel price. It is recommended to sell short on rallies. The short - term reference operating range for Shanghai nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - $18,000/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 155,107 yuan, down 5.71% from the previous working day and 11.28% for the week. The LC2605 contract closed at 148,200 yuan, down 10.08% from the previous day's closing price and 18.36% for the week [18][19]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Last week, the bullish sentiment cooled down, and the stop - profit orders increased significantly, causing the lithium price to decline rapidly. The total position of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 15.9% for the week. Although the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to improve, the sustainability of supply - side contraction is uncertain, and there is significant pressure on the upside of the lithium price. In the context of low downstream inventories, there may be short - term support at the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 136,000 - 158,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 30, 2026, the alumina index fell 1.64% to 2,768 yuan/ton, and the unilateral trading total position decreased by 32,900 to 613,500 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 213 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 79 yuan/ton. The Friday futures warehouse receipts were 171,100 tons, an increase of 9,600 tons from the previous day [21]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The ore price is expected to decline oscillatingly. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The market has increased expectations for the implementation of supply - contraction policies, but there are still three difficulties for continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 2,950 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday at 15:00, the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,585 yuan/ton, up 0.83% (+120). The unilateral position was 293,500 lots, a decrease of 1,534 lots from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed slightly. The raw material prices were relatively stable, and the futures inventory increased by 4,641 to 43,579 tons. The social inventory decreased to 904,500 tons, a 2.91% increase month - on - month, and the 300 - series inventory was 616,700 tons, a 2.86% increase month - on - month [24]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Last week, the market volatility increased significantly. The sharp decline in precious metal prices on Friday dragged down the non - ferrous metal sector, and the market sentiment was affected. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and the inventory turnover speed slowed down. The supply side has significantly contracted. The core upward logic has not changed, and the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to lightly lay out long positions at around 14,000 yuan/ton. The reference range for the main contract is 13,800 - 14,700 yuan/ton [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the steel price is expected to fluctuate. The price of the rebar 2605 contract rose by 0.03% in February. The global and Chinese crude steel production decreased in 2025. The rebar inventory accumulated in line with the pre - Spring Festival seasonal pattern but was still at a low level year - on - year. The demand side remained weak, and the rebar futures price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate in February [5][1][33] - Operational strategies: For single - side trading, take a bullish stance on dips; for arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6][34] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures price**: The daily K - line chart of the main rebar futures contract is presented [7] - **Spot price**: As of January 30, 2026, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,240 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [12] - **Basis and spread**: The rebar basis (active contract) is mentioned, but no specific data analysis is provided [13] Important Market Information - The People's Bank of China held the 2026 macro - prudential work conference, aiming to continue building a comprehensive macro - prudential management system and strengthen the central bank's macro - prudential management function [16] - In 2025, national large - scale industrial enterprises' total profit was 73982.0 billion yuan, up 0.6% year - on - year. The steel industry's profit was 1098.3 billion yuan, up 299.2% year - on - year, while the coal mining and washing industry's profit was 3520.0 billion yuan, down 41.8% year - on - year [16] - In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, also down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. Some manufacturing industries entered the traditional off - season, and market demand was insufficient [16] - At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, a decrease of 963.6 billion yuan for the whole year; the real estate development loan balance was 13.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 357.5 billion yuan; and the personal housing loan balance was 37.01 trillion yuan, a decrease of 676.8 billion yuan [16] Supply - side and Demand - side Situations - **Supply - side**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills are mentioned, but no detailed data is provided [18][20] - **Demand - side**: In January 2026, the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 48.8, down 4% month - on - month; the purchasing manager index for the steel circulation industry was 47.1, down 0.9% month - on - month [24] Fundamental Analysis - In December 2025, the crude steel production of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 139.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. The global crude steel production in 2025 was 1.8494 billion tons [32] - In 2025, China's crude steel production was about 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%, dropping below 1 billion tons for the first time since reaching its peak in 2020 [32] Market Outlook - At the end of January, the weekly social inventory of rebar was 3.264 million tons, up 7.7% month - on - month and down 27.5% year - on - year. The inventory accumulation conformed to the pre - Spring Festival seasonal rule, but the demand side remained weak. The rebar futures price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate in February [33] Operational Strategies - Single - side trading: Take a bullish stance on dips - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [6][34]

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the warm sentiment in the commodity market, steel prices once fluctuated higher. However, industrial contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating, limiting the upward driving force. In January, steel prices continued to fluctuate at a low level under the game between expectations and reality [4][11][13]. - Steel inventories have started to accumulate, with differences among varieties. Construction steel inventories have increased significantly, mainly due to the increase in supply and the seasonal decline in demand, and the expectation of inventory increase during the holiday is strong. Plate inventories have slightly decreased but are still at the highest level in the same lunar period in recent years, and the de - stocking pressure remains [4][26][27]. - In the off - season, steel mill production has weakened, and steel supply has continued to shrink, with differences among varieties. At the beginning of the new year, the factors suppressing production have subsided, and steel mills have continued the resumption of production. However, due to the limited improvement in profitability, the motivation for a significant increase in production is not strong, and production is expected to stabilize, with steel supply remaining stable [4][47][54]. - Steel demand has weakened, with obvious differences among varieties. Construction steel shows obvious seasonal weakness, while plate demand remains stable at a high level and shows good resilience. Looking forward, the downstream industries of building materials have not improved, the real - estate fundamentals continue to be sluggish, and infrastructure investment is difficult to increase in the short term due to holiday factors. The relative positive factor is the expectation of policy benefits. At the same time, the manufacturing industry's prosperity has weakened, and external demand is average under the new export policy, so there are concerns about plate demand [4][68][69]. - In conclusion, the contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating, which may suppress steel price trends. However, as important meetings approach, domestic policy expectations are increasing, and combined with the upward logic of resource products, the macro - positive expectations support steel prices. The operating logic of the steel market will switch between weak reality and strong expectations, and steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the increase in off - season inventories and changes in the macro - narrative logic [5][13][119]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1 - January Steel Prices Fluctuated at a Low Level - In January, the steel market entered the traditional off - season. Steel demand weakened seasonally, while supply remained stable. Industrial contradictions accumulated, and steel prices were under pressure. However, since October last year, the prices of related resource products have continued to rise strongly, boosting the sentiment in the commodity market and driving up the low - valued black varieties. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel futures and spot prices continued to fluctuate at a low level, with a relatively small overall fluctuation range [11]. - As of January 30, the futures prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil closed at 3128 yuan/ton and 3288 yuan/ton respectively, up 6 yuan and 18 yuan from the end - of - last - month values. The spot prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) and hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) in Shanghai were 3250 yuan/ton and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, down 50 yuan and 0 yuan from the end - of - last - month values [11]. - In January, the relevant price differences in the steel market operation were different from previous years. The basis weakened, the futures price curves of rebar and hot - rolled coil still showed a contango pattern but with a lower premium than in previous years. The strength of varieties changed, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was weak and stable, the difference between hot - rolled and cold - rolled plates continued to shrink, and the north - south spread of building materials showed a downward trend [12]. 3.2 Off - Season Steel Inventories Accumulated as Expected - As of the week of January 30, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 12.7851 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 463,600 tons and an increase of 3.76%. The inventory level was slightly higher than that of the same lunar period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 1.4616 million tons and an increase of 12.91% [20]. - Construction steel inventories continued to accumulate, while plate inventories slightly decreased, but both were higher than those of the same lunar period last year. As of the week of January 30, the inventory of construction steel was 5.6995 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 647,600 tons and an increase of 12.82%. The total plate inventory was 7.0856 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 184,000 tons and a decrease of 2.53% [26]. - In terms of inventory links, both steel social inventory and factory inventory increased. As of the week of January 30, the steel social inventory was 8.9073 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 399,500 tons and an increase of 4.70%. The factory inventory was 3.8778 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 64,100 tons and an increase of 1.68% [27]. - The rebar inventory inflection point has appeared, and the increase is relatively large. As of the week of January 30, the total rebar inventory was 4.7553 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 535,000 tons and an increase of 12.68%. The hot - rolled coil inventory decreased slightly but was still at a high level in the same period, and the pressure relief was limited [33][40]. 3.3 Steel Supply Remained Stable - The steel supply continued to shrink at the end of the year due to poor profitability of steel mills. In December, the national crude steel output was 68.1774 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.298 million tons and a decrease of 5.57%. At the beginning of the new year, steel mills began to resume production, and the output data of the China Iron and Steel Association rebounded in mid - January [47]. - High - frequency data also showed that steel mills began to resume production, but the overall increase was not large, and the steel supply remained stable, with differences among varieties. As of the week of January 30, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills were 79.00% and 85.47% respectively, slightly higher than the same period last year [53]. - The profitability of steel mills changed little in the off - season. As of the week of January 30, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 sample steel mills was 39.39%, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% but still at a relatively low level [54]. - In terms of varieties, the production of construction steel mills was active, and the rebar output continued to rise, increasing supply pressure. The production of plate steel mills was stable, and the hot - rolled coil output remained at a high level, with high inventory and large supply pressure [60][63]. 3.4 Steel Demand Showed Seasonal Weakness 3.4.1 High - Frequency Indicators Declined Seasonally - In the off - season, steel demand weakened, and high - frequency indicators declined seasonally, with differences among varieties. As of the week of January 30, the weekly apparent demand of the five major steel products was 8.0174 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 392,800 tons. In January, the total steel demand was 34.7449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3197 million tons and a decrease of 3.66% [68]. - Construction steel demand showed obvious seasonal weakness, while plate demand remained stable at a high level. In January, the cumulative demand for construction steel was 10.9401 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3262 million tons and a decrease of 10.81%. The plate demand was 23.8048 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 tons [68]. - The rebar demand declined seasonally, and the downstream industries did not improve, so the weak demand pattern would continue. As of the week of January 30, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 176,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 240,400 tons. The hot - rolled coil demand remained stable, but there were concerns about the future due to unresolved downstream contradictions [73][80]. 3.4.2 Steel Exports Changed - In December 2025, China's steel exports reached a new monthly high, with an export volume of 11.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.2% and a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. The annual cumulative export volume was 119.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. The increase in December was partly due to the "rush - to - export" effect caused by the uncertainty of the new steel export license policy in 2026 [89]. - The performance of major steel export varieties was further differentiated. Plate exports were generally strong, and long - products became the core driving force for export growth in December. The export destinations were also adjusted, with some markets showing growth and some showing decline [90][91]. - With the gradual disappearance of the "rush - to - export" effect at the end of the year, combined with weak external demand and the policy adaptation period of enterprises, it is expected that China's steel exports will face downward pressure in the first two months of 2026 [93]. 3.4.3 The Domestic Economic Growth Target was Achieved - In December, the economic data declined, but the annual economic growth target was achieved as scheduled. The annual GDP growth rate was 5%. In December, industrial performance slightly exceeded expectations, social retail sales remained weak, and fixed - asset investment continued to be weak [100]. - The real - estate market was sluggish. In 2025, the national commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the real - estate development investment decreased by 17.20% year - on - year. The funds available to real - estate enterprises did not improve, and the decline in funds in place continued to widen [102][104][105]. - Infrastructure investment continued to decline. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of narrow - sense infrastructure (excluding electricity) and broad - sense infrastructure turned negative for the first time. In the future, infrastructure investment is expected to gradually stabilize and recover at a low level [110].

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 上周五国债期货主力合约开盘多数持平，早盘冲高回落，午后窄幅波动，30 | 年期品 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 种跌幅较大，截至收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 下跌 | 0.23%，10 | 年期 | T ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For sugar, wait until the northern hemisphere starts to finish squeezing in February and the bearish impact of increased production is basically realized, then the international sugar price may rebound. Domestically, as the supply of imported sugar gradually decreases and the sugar price falls to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - For cotton, in the medium - to - long term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and the positive macro - economic expectations, the cotton price still has room to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [9]. - For protein meal, affected by the sudden news from Canada, the rapeseed meal price rebounded. The January USDA report data is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/25 season. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have decreased on a weekly basis, and the protein meal price may be bottoming out [13]. - For oils and fats, affected by the sudden news from Canada and the year - on - year decline in Malaysian palm oil production in January, the oil price rose significantly yesterday. The domestic inventory of the three major oils has been decreasing on a weekly basis. Wait for a pullback and then try to go long [17]. - For eggs, the spot price is about to experience seasonal price increases, which will drive the futures price down. The near - term contract may fluctuate weakly, while the far - end contract may continue to correct its valuation, so maintain a short - selling strategy [19]. - For pigs, the basic supply is large and the live - animal inventory is accumulating. The spot and near - term expectations are pessimistic, so maintain a strategy of short - selling on rebounds. The far - end production capacity decline has been revised down, but there are still expectations of high fat - to - standard price differences, seasonal support, and recovery in consumer demand, so pay attention to the downside support after the price follows the decline [22]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5248 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous trading day. The offer price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5290 - 5370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. - **Industry Data**: In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - making ratio of sugarcane was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons. As of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,670 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton or 1.61% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 16,183 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - **Industry Data**: As of the week of January 23, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The January 2026 USDA forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December forecast and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The January forecast for US production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease. Brazil's production forecast remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; India's production was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a decrease of 194,900 tons year - on - year. Among them, the export to China that week was 8800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a decrease of 66,000 tons year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year [7][8]. Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the protein meal futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2767 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 1.25% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2287 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton or 1.63% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Dongguan soybean meal was reported at 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of Huangpu rapeseed meal was reported at 2490 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [11]. - **Industry Data**: From January 15 to January 22, the US exported 820,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.85 million tons. Among them, the export of soybeans to China that week was 230,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 9.65 million tons. From January 16 to January 23, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week; the sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The January 2026 USDA forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, a 0.39 - percentage - point increase from December and a 0.44 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year. The January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons from the previous year; the January forecast for Brazil's production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons from the previous year; the January forecast for Argentina's production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged from the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons from the previous year. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume was slightly revised down by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast [12]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the oils and fats futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8282 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton or 1.19% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9240 yuan/ton, down 222 yuan/ton or 1.3% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9380 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton or 0.7% from the previous trading day. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 9260 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 10,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. - **Industry Data**: Malaysia's palm oil production from January 1 - 20, 2026, decreased by 14.43% compared with the same period of the previous month. From January 16 to January 23, the domestic sample inventory of the three major oils slightly decreased by 30,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and will maintain the current B40 plan. The January 2026 USDA forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons from the previous year. India's total vegetable oil imports in December 2025 were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from November [15][16]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices generally fell, with some areas experiencing relatively large declines. The price in Heishan remained at 3.8 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao dropped 0.2 yuan to 3.33 yuan/jin, and the price in Xishui dropped 0.23 yuan to 3.84 yuan/jin. The market supply was normal, the supply of small eggs was slightly tight, the inventory was not large, the downstream demand was limited, the wholesale market sales slowed down, and the purchasing intention of traders weakened. Egg prices may continue to fall this week [18]. Pigs - **Market Quotes**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices mainly rose, with some areas being weak. The average price in Henan rose 0.04 yuan to 12.52 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan fell 0.16 yuan to 11.76 yuan/kg. At the beginning of the month, the slaughter rhythm of farmers slowed down, the slaughter volume decreased, the downstream demand was relatively stable, the procurement difficulty increased, and the pig price mainly rose under the situation of supply less than demand. The supply pressure in a few southern regions was relatively large, and the pig price was stable. It is expected that the pig price will be mainly strong today [21].