Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The recent drastic fluctuations in US tariff policies were triggered by the US Supreme Court's final judicial ruling on February 20, 2026. The Trump administration launched a legal alternative and completed tariff adjustments, implementation, and geopolitical exemptions within 72 hours, forming a complete policy chain. The ruling did not end Trump's trade protectionism but limited his most flexible unilateral tariff tool. The Trump administration is reconstructing the tariff framework through multiple legal paths, and the risks of re - inflation and policy uncertainty have significantly increased [3]. - The 122 - clause tariff can only provide short - term tariff support for 150 days. The Trump administration will use the 232 - clause industry tariff and 301 - clause country - specific tariff as the core means for the medium - and long - term reconstruction of the tariff system, while reserving more radical policy tools. Congressional bipartisan games will be the core variable determining the long - term policy direction [19]. - The Supreme Court's ruling has limited short - term impacts on the US terminal aggregate demand, fiscal revenue, trade pattern, and capital market. The market's expectation of "tariff reduction driving disinflation" has not been fulfilled, and the risk of re - inflation remains high [23]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. US Tariff New Policy Revived 1.1 Pre - trigger Event: Supreme Court Final Ruling, Core Tariff System Completely Invalidated - On February 20, 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled that all general tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) without specific congressional authorization were an over - reach of presidential power, violating the US Constitution and trade laws. These invalidated tariffs included the 10% global benchmark tariff, global retaliatory "equivalent tariffs", fentanyl - related special tariffs, and additional country - specific tariffs on countries such as China, Mexico, and Canada, covering over 120 countries and regions [3]. - The 10% global benchmark tariff on almost all imported goods from 127 countries and regions was the core invalid item. The "equivalent tariffs" with rates ranging from 10% to 50% covered almost all US trading partners. The fentanyl - related special tariffs targeted imports from China, Mexico, and Canada. There were also additional country - specific tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada, India, Brazil, etc. [3][4][8] - The ruling only negated the legality of tariffs imposed under IEEPA, not the tariffs imposed under other congressional - authorized laws such as the 232 - clause and 301 - clause. The estimated cumulative scale of the invalidated tariffs exceeded $175 billion, and the refund process will enter a long - term legal litigation procedure [8]. 1.2 Core Policy Change Process: Emergency Replacement, Tariff Rate Increase, and Geopolitical Exemption - **First Stage: February 20, Emergency Replacement, Invoking Clause 122 to Sign a 10% Comprehensive Tariff** - Immediately after the Supreme Court's ruling, Trump signed a presidential executive order, invoking Clause 122 of the 1974 Trade Act to introduce a new 10% comprehensive import tariff, replacing the invalidated tariffs. This is the first time in over 50 years since the legislation of this clause that it has been used for a general tariff measure targeting most of the US trading partners [10]. - The new tariff covers almost all imported goods from most countries and regions except US free - trade agreement partners and least - developed countries. It aims to restore the average US import tariff to the pre - ruling level within 150 days. The 122 - clause tariff has clear differences from the IEEPA tariff in terms of tax rate limits, validity periods, extension rules, and application boundaries [11]. - The 122 - clause tariff has detailed exemption ranges for various categories of goods, including resources and livelihood items, high - end manufacturing products, free - trade agreement - related goods, special categories, and exceptions. It took effect on February 24, 2026, with a 150 - day validity period. The model predicts that the weighted average US tariff level will rise to around 11% [11]. - **Second Stage: February 21, Verbally Announcing a Top - up to the 15% Legal Upper Limit** - Trump announced on social media that the 10% comprehensive tariff would be raised to 15%, reaching the maximum tax rate allowed by Clause 122. After the replacement of the IEEPA tariff with the 122 - clause tariff, the tariffs on exports to the US from different countries and product categories have changed significantly. If Trump imposes a 15% tariff on the top 10 US trade deficit source countries, the weighted average US tariff level will rise to around 15%. As of February 26, the actual implementation rate by the US Customs and Border Protection is still 10%, and Trump's statement about the 15% tariff remains at the social media level [12]. - **Third Stage: February 23, Targeted Exemption, Exchanging Tariff Concessions for a Geopolitical Agreement on Greenland** - On February 23, the US, NATO, and Denmark reached a framework agreement on Greenland's security and cooperation. In exchange, the Trump administration excluded 8 European NATO countries from the 122 - clause comprehensive tariff. This is related to the US's competition for Arctic strategic resources and military layout. The exemption only applies to the 122 - clause tariff, and the 232 - clause and 301 - clause tariffs on these countries still apply. This move also aims to relieve domestic inflation pressure and focus on core trading opponents. As of February 26, the specific implementation details of the exemption are still being formulated [13][14][15]. 2. 150 - day Window Period: Medium - and Long - term Reconstruction Path and Core Boundaries of US Tariff Policy 2.1 Core Boundaries of This Round of Tariff Policy Adjustment - **Legal Boundary**: The 10% tariff based on Clause 122 has clear congressional authorization and is not within the scope of the Supreme Court's previous ruling, so it will not be overturned by the judicial process in the short term [19]. - **Validity Period**: The tariff takes effect on February 24, 2026, and will expire automatically after 150 days. To extend it, the Trump administration needs the majority votes of both houses of Congress. Given the current bipartisan differences, the probability of extension is low [20]. - **Existing Tariffs**: The existing tariffs under the 232 - clause and 301 - clause are not affected by this policy adjustment and will continue to be implemented. The Trump administration has quickly switched to legal tariff paths to offset the policy gap, resulting in little change in the overall US tariff level [20]. - **Policy Execution and Tax Refund**: The Supreme Court did not specify the details and time limits for tax refunds. The refund process requires importers to initiate lawsuits, and the short - term effects of policy changes are difficult to be transmitted to the terminal market and the macro - economy [21]. 2.2 Medium - and Long - term Tariff System Reconstruction Path within the 150 - day Window Period - **Core Long - term Policy Tools**: The 232 - clause and 301 - clause are the core means for the Trump administration to build a medium - and long - term tariff system. These two clauses have clear congressional authorization, no tax rate limits, and no time constraints. Since 2025, the US has imposed tariffs of 10% - 50% on various product categories under the 232 - clause, covering an import scale of over $1.3 trillion [21]. - **Incremental Tariff Reserves**: The ongoing 232 investigations in the US cover products such as pharmaceuticals, medical devices, large aircraft, and key minerals, accounting for about 20% of the total US imports. Most of these investigations can produce final results in the first half of 2026, with the conditions for quickly imposing tariffs [21]. - **Accelerated Policy Implementation**: The US Trade Representative's Office is accelerating multiple trade investigations. The 232 national security investigations on 9 product categories such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and industrial robots are in the final stage, and new industry - specific tariffs may be implemented within 1 - 3 months. The US also plans to launch a new round of 301 investigations targeting major global trading partners to complete the long - term tariff system before the expiration of the 122 - clause tariff [22]. - **Reserved Radical Policy Options**: The Trump administration has reserved the 338 - clause of the 1930 Tariff Act, which allows the president to impose retaliatory tariffs on countries with unreasonable or discriminatory trade restrictions after the USTR's investigation, serving as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations [22]. 2.3 Core Constraints on Medium - and Long - term Tariff Policies: Congressional Legislative Games - Congressional legislative games are the most critical variable determining the long - term direction of US tariff policies. The Supreme Court's ruling has returned the tariff - making power to Congress. In 2026, a general trade law is difficult to be introduced, but a special trade law targeting China may be possible. The Trump administration is promoting Congress to introduce more sustainable tariff - authorization legislation. However, due to the differences within the Republican Party and the lack of clear support from both parties for the extension of the 122 - clause tariff, the probability of relevant legislation and extension is very low [22]. 2.4 Macro - effects of Policy Adjustment - **Terminal Commodity Prices**: Terminal commodity prices are sticky, and the prices will not decrease rapidly due to the invalidation of the IEEPA tariff. The price transmission has a strong lag, and the incentive for enterprises to apply for tax refunds is low, so the terminal demand will not be significantly stimulated [23]. - **Export Price Adjustment**: After the cancellation of the IEEPA tariff, exporters have room to raise prices, offsetting the price - reduction effect of tariff cuts [23]. - **Tax Refund**: The tax - refund process is long, and the funds only flow to importers, having little impact on the total demand [24]. - **Alternative Tariff Policies**: The alternative tariff policies will maintain the original tax rate and revenue scale, and the overall fiscal impact is minimal. The inflation stickiness remains strong [24]. - **Tariff Exemption and Existing High - Tariff Policies**: The exemption of EU imports and the continuation of high 232 - clause tariffs on core product categories weaken the disinflation effect [25]. - **Market Narrative and Asset Prices**: The tariff ruling has little impact on the global industrial production, trade volume, and asset prices, and does not change the overall market macro - narrative [25]. 3. Core Boundaries and Subsequent Key Nodes of This Round of Tariff Policy Changes - The Supreme Court's ruling has limited short - term impacts on the US terminal aggregate demand, fiscal revenue, trade pattern, and capital market. The 122 - clause tariff has clear congressional authorization, is valid for 150 days, and is difficult to be extended. The existing 232 - clause and 301 - clause tariffs are not affected. - Key subsequent time windows include: before March 17, 2026, the Trump administration can apply for a ruling review; from March to June 2026, it is the key period for the implementation of new 232 and 301 investigations; from March 31 to April 2, 2026, is the time window for Trump's planned visit to China; and on July 24, 2026, the 122 - clause temporary tariff will expire, which is also a key node for congressional legislative games on tariff extension [27].

上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周四（2月26日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计105072千克，今日仓 单较上一日持平。 上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) 目前美联储新任主席候选人沃什虽以"鹰派"著称，但他之前讲话曾释放"鸽派"信号，表示其上任后不会 立刻开始收紧流动性，这对贵金属价格支撑形成利多。"从降息层面来看，美联储在任主席鲍威尔目前 态度依然强硬，市场预期其任内难以进一步降息。因此，2026年度美联储降息预计需等待沃什上台后的 第一次议息会议，市场预期其年内降息至少2次。 沪金主力盘内震荡偏强，周四（2月26日）黄金期货开盘价1148.68元/克，截至目前最高1154.46元/克， 最低1144.08元/克。截止发稿报1146.48元/克，涨幅0.00%，成交量为169407手，持仓为151642手，日持 仓减少3433手。 | 上期所指定交割金库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 105072 | 0 | ...

Macro News - The UK government has expanded its sanctions list against Russian entities, which now includes Chinese entities. The Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed strong dissatisfaction with this unilateral sanction, emphasizing that normal Sino-Russian cooperation should not be disrupted. China will take necessary measures to protect its legitimate rights and interests [1] - The U.S. Trade Representative, Katherine Tai, stated that the U.S. will continue its investigation into China's compliance with the Phase One trade agreement and may impose tariffs. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce urged the U.S. to view the implementation of the agreement objectively and rationally, and to avoid shifting blame or creating conflicts. China is willing to work with the U.S. to focus on existing economic and trade consensus and explore mutual interests [1] Institutional Views - After the Spring Festival, gold prices have shown a fluctuating trend, with international prices around $5,200 and domestic prices around 1,150 yuan. The macroeconomic environment has improved post-holiday, leading to a rebound in global stock markets, which has put pressure on gold prices. However, geopolitical factors continue to support gold prices [1] - On February 25, the U.S. Treasury announced sanctions against over 30 entities, oil tankers, and individuals to combat what it termed Iran's "illegal oil sales" and its production of ballistic missiles and drones. Technically, attention should be paid to the $5,200 level for London gold, indicating a battle between bulls and bears [1]

特朗普：首选仍是通过外交途径解决伊朗核问题。伊朗外长抵达日内瓦，准备于26日与美国代表举行第 三轮间接谈判。 | 2月26日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1146.48 | 0.00% | 169407 | 151642 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，2月26日上海黄金现货价格报价1144.51元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1146.48元/克）贴水 1.97元/克。 特朗普在第二任期首次国情咨文中称股市"创纪录新高"、通胀"暴跌"，并对最高法院否决关税表达"非 常令人遗憾"，称"关税提振了股市"，希望关税"取代现代的所得税制度"。他还表示将允许移民"合法入 境"，要求科技巨头"自备电力、自建工厂"，提到从委内瑞拉接收"8000万桶石油"，并推动立法禁止议 员炒股。 【黄金期货最新行情】 芝商所因"技术问题"一度暂停金属及天然气期货和期权交易。 【机构观点】 银河期货：多空因素共存 预计维持高位震荡 昨日美股表现显示市场风险情绪进一步回暖，今晨英伟 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of coking coal options on January 16, 2026, at Dalian Commodity Exchange has shown stable operation in its first month, enhancing price discovery and risk management functions, and increasing participation from industry enterprises, thereby injecting new momentum into the high-quality development of the real economy [3][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - Coking coal options have provided a more flexible and precise risk hedging choice for enterprises in the coal-coke-steel industry chain, especially during the weak supply and demand conditions around the Spring Festival [3][8]. - As of February 24, 2026, coking coal options have recorded a total trading volume of 1.1843 million contracts and a transaction value of 3.137 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 53,800 contracts [10]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Zhongji Ningbo Group has actively utilized the "futures + options" combination to optimize management, applying options tools for inventory management to effectively avoid the devaluation risk of coking coal stocks [4][8]. - Shanxi Yaxin Energy Group has achieved dual objectives of risk avoidance and profit enhancement by employing coking coal futures and options to lock in high sales profits and further increase returns through selling options [4][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry insiders express optimism about the future development of coking coal options, anticipating that more enterprises will seek to lock in raw material prices and future profits as market conditions mature and liquidity improves [12]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to deepen cooperation with industry organizations and leading enterprises to enhance market cultivation and investor education, thereby improving the quality and effectiveness of derivative markets in serving the real economy [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market showed a slightly stronger trend with fluctuations on the day. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed flat, Shanghai Silver rose 0.47%, Platinum rose 2%, and Palladium fell 2.27%. The short - term core logic is that while the trade - war risk has eased, geopolitical risks still exist. The US employment is strong and inflation pressure remains, with low expectations of interest - rate cuts. [1] - Trump's 10% global tariff has come into effect, and the White House plans to raise it to 15%. China will adjust counter - measures as appropriate. The US - Iran conflict risk still exists. [1] - The Fed's January meeting minutes showed great differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, with discussions on the possibility of interest - rate hikes mentioned for the first time. The market expects the Fed to complete interest - rate cuts this year, with the next cut possibly in July. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated weakly. [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 15 consecutive months. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen energy industry, and palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index fluctuated weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a slightly stronger trend with fluctuations in the short term, high - level fluctuations in the medium term, and a long - term bullish trend. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex Gold and London Gold) increased, while domestic prices (Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D) showed mixed trends. The basis and spreads also had different changes. [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex Gold and Shanghai Gold main contract positions decreased, while Gold T + D positions increased slightly. Inventory changes were relatively small. [2] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had different changes. [3] Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management. [5] - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex Silver and London Silver) increased significantly, while domestic prices (Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D) decreased. The basis and spreads changed greatly. [5] - **Position and Inventory**: Positions in Comex Silver, Shanghai Silver main contract, and Silver T + D all decreased. Inventory also decreased. [5] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had different changes. [6] Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with good position management. [7] - **Price Data**: International prices (NYMEX Platinum and London Platinum) had different trends, and domestic prices (Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange) increased. The basis and spreads changed. [8] - **Position and Inventory**: The position of NYMEX Platinum active contract decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. [8] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange had different changes. [9] Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management. [10] - **Price Data**: International prices (NYMEX Palladium and London Palladium) increased, and the domestic price (Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange) also increased. The basis and spreads changed. [10] - **Position and Inventory**: The position of NYMEX Palladium active contract decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. [10] Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The Federal Reserve's relevant interest rates decreased, and the total assets decreased slightly. Key economic indicators such as M2, ten - year US Treasury real yield, and US dollar index had different changes. [11][13] - **US Economic Data**: GDP, unemployment rate, employment data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data all showed different trends. [13] - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves increased slightly, and the proportion of different currencies in IMF foreign exchange reserves changed. [13] - **Safe - Haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index and VIX index decreased, and the CRB commodity index increased slightly. The offshore RMB exchange rate decreased slightly. [13] Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations - The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels at different meetings from 2026 to 2027 is provided, showing the market's expectations of the Fed's interest - rate decisions. [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the rapeseed industry is complex. For rapeseed meal, due to the unclear Sino - Canadian trade situation, the supply - side pressure is limited, but it is in the off - season of aquaculture demand, and the demand is mainly rigid. The overall rapeseed meal has maintained a volatile trend recently, and short - term trading is recommended. For rapeseed oil, the Sino - Canadian trade situation also restricts the commercial purchase of rapeseed, and the supply - side pressure is relatively limited. The rapeseed oil closed lower in shock today, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil futures closing price (active contract) is 9185 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; rapeseed meal futures closing price (active contract) is 2296 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. ICE rapeseed futures closing price (active) is 690.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1.3 Canadian dollars; rapeseed futures closing price (active contract) is 5795 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is 21 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is - 65 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil main contract position is 251806 hands, down 6923 hands; rapeseed meal main contract position is 904520 hands, up 36518 hands [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil net long position is - 20883 hands, down 8971 hands; rapeseed meal net long position is - 223328 hands, down 29725 hands [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipt quantity is 625 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal warehouse receipt quantity is 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu is 9980 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; rapeseed meal spot price in Nantong is 2510 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. Rapeseed spot price in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10086.25 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The import cost price of imported rapeseed is 8065.45 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 795 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis is 214 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan [2]. - Price spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price spread is 1330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot price spread is 1200 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot price spread is 590 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; rapeseed annual forecast production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: Rapeseed import quantity (total) for the current month is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; rapeseed oil and mustard oil import quantity for the current month is 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; rapeseed meal import quantity for the current month is 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. - Pressing profit and开机率: Imported rapeseed crushing profit per ton is 172 yuan, down 6 yuan; imported rapeseed weekly开机率 is 0%, down 2.67% [2]. - Inventory: Rapeseed inventory in oil mills (total) is 7.5 million tons, up 2.5 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 million tons, unchanged; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.6 million tons, unchanged. East China rapeseed oil inventory is 24.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 9.35 million tons, unchanged. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 million tons, unchanged; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 27.5 million tons, unchanged [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 is 1.17 million tons, down 1.2 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 is 1.48 million tons, down 1.38 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production for the current month is 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; edible vegetable oil production for the current month is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: Social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue for the current month is 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal at - the - money call option implied volatility is 18.37%, down 1.34%; at - the - money put option implied volatility is 18.37%, down 1.34%. Rapeseed oil at - the - money call option implied volatility is 15.8%, up 0.34%; at - the - money put option implied volatility is 15.8%, up 0.34% [2]. - Historical volatility: 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 14.69%, up 0.27%; 60 - day historical volatility is 14.63%, up 0.13%. 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 20.07%, down 0.01%; 60 - day historical volatility is 17.65%, up 0.02% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On February 25 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures showed a divergent trend. US President Trump's speech in the State of the Union did not give clear guidance to the Canadian rapeseed market. The most active May rapeseed contract fell 0.20 Canadian dollars to 691.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture said at the annual outlook forum that the US soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres. Based on a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, the US soybean production in the next year will reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. South American soybean harvest is expected to be good, and the supply - side pressure will gradually increase [2]. - The Canadian Department of Agriculture predicts that the rapeseed production in 2026/27 will be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year. The ending inventory is 1.65 million tons, lower than 2.75 million tons in the previous year [2]. - From February 1 - 20, 2026, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 8.9% - 12.6% month - on - month. The US Department of Agriculture's outlook forum predicts that the demand for soybean oil for biofuel production in 2025/26 will reach 14.8 billion pounds, a year - on - year increase of 26%, and will further increase by 17% to 17.3 billion pounds in 2026/27 [2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has been extended to March 9 due to the complexity of the case [2].

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2026/2/26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,918.00 | +166.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,538.00 | +52.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 620,336.00 | -13009.00↓ SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 395,029.00 | -6813.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -43,071.00 | -15643.00↓ 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -31,156.00 | -10567.00↓ | | | SM5-3月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 36.00 | -6.00↓ SF4-3月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 6.00 | +8.00↑ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 45,891.00 | -153.00↓ SF 仓单（日，张） | 3,425.00 | -4631.00↓ | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with the spot price of live pigs mainly undergoing weak adjustments. The main 2605 contract on the futures market closed down 0.13%, showing pressure at the 10 - day moving average. After repairing the deviation from the short - term moving average, it shows insufficient rebound momentum and overall oscillates [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 11,395 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the main contract position is 154,348 lots, down 119 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 1,156 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 42,551 lots, up 3,909 lots [2]. Spot Price - The live pig price in Henan Zhumadian is 11,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin Siping is 10,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main basis of live pigs is - 395 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national live pig inventory is 42,9670,000 heads, down 7130,000 heads; the national breeding sow inventory is 3,9610,000 heads, down 290,000 heads [2]. Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI is 0.2%, down 0.6 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,380.98 yuan/ton, up 1.18 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 933.62, up 0.26; the monthly output of feed is 30,086,000 tons, up 307,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,429 yuan/head, down 2 yuan; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is 53.1 yuan/head, down 38.32 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is - 98.32 yuan/head, down 60.23 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 60,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 14 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 4,8910,000 heads, up 9340,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 573.8 billion yuan, down 31.9 billion yuan [2]. Industry News - On February 26, 2026, the daily national live pig出栏 volume of key breeding enterprises was 259,550 heads, an increase of 3.03% from the previous day. The supply side is gradually increasing as large - scale farms resume slaughter, and attention should be paid to the timing of secondary fattening entry. The demand side may see a short - term improvement in demand due to the resumption of work of slaughtering enterprises after the festival and the start of school, but overall, the demand has entered the off - season [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The domestic cotton market is expected to fluctuate and strengthen. The increase in US cotton prices and the strengthened expectation of a decline in cotton planting area in Xinjiang boost the domestic cotton market. The domestic commercial inventory is in the destocking stage with post - holiday restocking intention, but port inventory is still accumulating and December cotton imports will arrive. The consumption side has sufficient pre - holiday orders and expectations for the post - holiday traditional peak season [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 15,350 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net position is - 177,835 hands, down 21,541 hands; main contract position of cotton is 838,434 hands, up 15,000 hands; cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 11,137 sheets, up 13 sheets. Cotton yarn main contract closing price is 21,255 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net position is - 1,065 hands, down 153 hands; main contract position of cotton yarn is 12,899 hands, up 269 hands; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 352 sheets [2] Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 16,681 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,883 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) is 13,901 yuan/ton. Imported cotton yarn price index of pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn (arrival price) is 21,870 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index of pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn (arrival price) is 22,790 yuan/ton, down 114 yuan; China Yarn Price Index of pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,396 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons; cotton - yarn price difference is 5,189 yuan/ton, down 337 yuan; industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 861,000 tons, up 13,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - Cotton import quantity is 180,000 tons, up 60,000 tons; cotton yarn import quantity is 170,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; imported cotton profit is 2,780 yuan/ton, up 291 yuan; commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 5.7887 million tons, up 4,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Inventory days of yarn is 21.71 days, down 3.41 days; inventory days of grey cloth is 33.13 days, down 0.63 days; cloth output is 3.01 billion meters, up 200 million meters; yarn output is 2.132 million tons, up 93,000 tons; export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 134,124,120,000 US dollars, up 181,872,600 US dollars; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 125,796,030,000 US dollars, up 303,870,000 US dollars [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option of cotton is 18.84%, up 2.49%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option of cotton is 18.84%, up 2.48%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 18.27%, down 0.01%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 13.48%, unchanged [2] Industry News - As of 24:00 on February 24, 2026, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises in accordance with the cotton quality inspection system reform plan is 33,136,222 bales, totaling 7,479,899 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.49%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton is 7,105,688 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.74%. ICE cotton futures rose for the second consecutive trading day on Wednesday, hitting a more than one - month high, mainly boosted by short - covering and a weaker US dollar. Traders are waiting for the US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report for demand signals [2]