Group 1: Index Trends - On February 25th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.72% to close at 4147.23 points, with a trading volume of 1085.97 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.29% to close at 14475.87 points, with a trading volume of 1376.578 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.52% with a trading volume of 533.141 billion yuan, opening at 8320.61, closing at 8426.33, with a daily high of 8449.76 and a low of 8310.33 [1] - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.6% with a trading volume of 506.849 billion yuan, opening at 8412.08, closing at 8527.56, with a daily high of 8551.53 and a low of 8401.6 [1] - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.45% with a trading volume of 150.623 billion yuan, opening at 3045.45, closing at 3054.92, with a daily high of 3080.08 and a low of 3041.59 [1] - The CSI 300 Index rose 0.6% with a trading volume of 596.904 billion yuan, opening at 4713.58, closing at 4735.89, with a daily high of 4766.56 and a low of 4713.34 [1] Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 126.56 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as non - ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment significantly pulling the index up [2] - The CSI 500 rose 134.65 points from the previous closing price, with non - ferrous metals, electronics, and national defense and military industries significantly pulling the index up [2] - The CSI 300 rose 28.35 points from the previous closing price, with electronics and non - ferrous metals significantly pulling the index up [2] - The SSE 50 rose 13.6 points from the previous closing price, with non - ferrous metals, food and beverage, and national defense and military industries significantly pulling the index up [2] Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 3.93, IM01 of - 32.87, IM02 of - 164.84, and IM03 of - 346.58 [13] - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of 6.23, IC01 of - 8.89, IC02 of - 89.67, and IC03 of - 213.58 [13] - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 0.83, IF01 of - 8.18, IF02 of - 39.1, and IF03 of - 95.31 [13] - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 4.34, IH01 of 5.52, IH02 of - 0.29, and IH03 of - 33.49 [13]

Group 1: Hot News - Trump announced in his State of the Union address that he will bypass Supreme Court rulings and continue to impose tariffs through other legal means, and proposed to replace personal income tax with tariff revenue. He also expressed a preference for diplomatic solutions to the Iranian nuclear issue but will not allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons. However, there were inaccurate data and misleading views in his speech [2] - At the end of January, the national passenger car industry inventory was 3.57 million vehicles, a decrease of 80,000 vehicles month-on-month and an increase of 580,000 vehicles year-on-year. The inventory support for future sales days was 70 days, indicating relatively high inventory pressure [2] - The US Department of Commerce will impose countervailing duties on crystalline silicon solar cell components imported from India, Indonesia, and Laos, with subsidy rates of 125.87%, 104.38%, and 80.67% respectively [2] - Some steel mills in Tangshan have received notices of self - emission reduction during the Two Sessions from March 4th to March 11th, with a blast furnace load reduction of no less than 30%. It is expected that molten iron output will decline in early March [3] - Zimbabwe has suspended the export of lithium concentrates and raw ores to promote local processing business [3] Group 2: Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, lithium carbonate, platinum, PVC, asphalt [4] - Night session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 1.95%, precious metals rose 34.48%, oilseeds rose 7.77%, soft commodities rose 2.73%, non - ferrous metals rose 26.86%, coal - coke - steel - ore rose 9.75%, energy rose 2.60%, chemicals rose 10.19%, grains rose 1.12%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.55% [4] Group 3: Plate Position - The document shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures plates in the past five days [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.72% daily, 0.71% monthly, and 4.49% annually; the S&P 500 rose 0.81% daily, 0.10% monthly, and 1.47% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.66% daily, - 2.27% monthly, and 4.43% annually, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.13% daily, rose 0.16% monthly, and rose 0.57% annually; 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.10% daily, rose 0.17% monthly, and rose 0.29% annually, etc. [6] - Commodity: The CRB commodity index rose 0.53% daily, - 2.70% monthly, and 4.24% annually; WTI crude oil rose 0.00% daily, 0.72% monthly, and 15.01% annually, etc. [6] - Others: The US dollar index fell 0.24% daily, rose 0.56% monthly, and fell 0.62% annually; the CBOE volatility index rose 0.00% daily, 12.10% monthly, and 30.77% annually [6]

2026 年 2 月 26 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.47%报 112.700 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.13%报 108.480 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.10%报 106.065 元，2 年 期主力合约跌 0.06%报 102.458 元。 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 16 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 21 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 22 | | 白糖： 23 | | 苹果： 24 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 25 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 公开市场方面，央行公告称，2 月 25 日以 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of various markets including commodities, finance, and industries. It covers price movements in the overnight futures market, important macro - economic and industry - specific news, and financial market trends. Key factors influencing the markets are geopolitical tensions, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.14% at $5183.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.95% at $89.21 per ounce [4]. - U.S. oil and Brent oil had different trends, with U.S. oil down 0.09% at $65.57 per barrel and Brent oil up 0.45% at $70.9 per barrel [5]. - London base metals all rose, with LME tin up 7.19% at $53915.0 per ton, etc. [5]. - SHFE base metal futures also closed higher, with tin up 5.77%, etc. [5]. - As of 23:00, domestic futures were mostly down, with synthetic rubber down over 2%, while LPG and fuel oil up over 1% [7]. - Domestic commodity futures had various price changes, with crude oil down 0.63% at 486.5 yuan per barrel, and precious metals rising [7]. Important Information Macro - Information - The U.S. may raise "global import tariffs" from 10% to 15% or higher [9]. - China - U.S. trade negotiations have achieved some results, and China hopes the U.S. to handle the first - phase agreement objectively [9]. - The IMF expects the U.S. economic growth rate to be 2.4% in 2026 [9]. - CME Globex metal and natural gas futures and options markets had trading schedule changes [9][11]. - A conflict occurred between a Cuban law - enforcement boat and a U.S. speedboat [11]. Energy and Chemical Futures - OPEC+ may agree to resume a small - scale production increase in April, and is considering a 137,000 - barrel - per - day increase [13]. - Kazakhstan's oil and condensate production increased from 1270000 barrels per day in January to 1780000 barrels per day from February 1 to 24 [14]. - UAE's Fujairah port's refined oil inventory decreased by 1.9 million barrels (0.1%) to 20.528 million barrels in the week ending February 23 [14]. - China's methanol port inventory increased by 14500 tons to 1.4467 million tons as of February 25 [14]. - U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 277000 barrels per day to 4.313 million barrels per day in the week of February 20, and commercial crude inventory increased by 15.989 million barrels to 436 million barrels [15]. Metal Futures - Zimbabwe has suspended the export of lithium concentrates and raw ores to promote local processing [18]. - Bank of America expects gold to reach $6000 per ounce in the next 12 months and silver may exceed $100 per ounce this year [18]. Black - Series Futures - Some steel mills in Tangshan will implement emission - reduction measures from March 4 - 11, and iron - water output is expected to decline in early March [19]. - Shanghai has optimized real - estate policies [19]. Agricultural Futures - Sovecon lowered Russia's 2025/26 wheat export forecast by 300000 tons to 45.4 million tons and raised the 2026/27 forecast by 2.1 million tons to 41.7 million tons [22]. - Ukraine's rapeseed export price increased due to potential production decline [22]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from February 1 - 25 decreased by 12.1% (ITS data) and 16.05% (AmSpec data) compared to the same period last month [23][24]. - Indonesia urges the EU to comply with the WTO ruling on palm - oil disputes [24]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from February 1 - 20 decreased by 12.29% [24]. - Canada's rapeseed crushing volume in January decreased by 2.17% from the previous month but increased by 4.24% year - on - year [25]. Financial Markets Finance - A - shares rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.72%, and cyclical resource stocks led the gains [28]. - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.66%, and the market is planning to optimize the settlement cycle and listing requirements [28][29]. - A - share strong - cycle sectors have been rising, and it is a good time to allocate [28]. - ETF market shows a "hot - cold uneven" pattern, with Hong Kong - themed ETFs attracting funds [29]. - Insurance institutions are optimistic about A - shares and Hong Kong stocks [30]. - Xin Hua Technology's IPO application has been accepted, planning to raise 1.32 billion yuan [30]. Industry - China will strengthen oil and gas infrastructure connectivity in 2026 [31]. - China's civil aviation transported 22.05 million passengers during the Spring Festival, a 7.7% increase from 2025 [31]. - The national passenger - car inventory is at a high level [31]. - Hong Kong launched a HK$10 billion "Innovation and Technology Industry Guidance Fund" and established an AI - related committee [32]. - Guangzhou will introduce policies for quantum technology and other fields [34]. - Sichuan aims to develop the service industry by 2030 [34]. - Henan plans to promote equipment and consumer - goods replacement [34]. - The draft amendment to the Certified Public Accountant Law was submitted for review [35]. Overseas - The U.S. will impose anti - subsidy duties on solar - cell modules from India, Indonesia, and Laos [36]. - South Korea's newborns increased by 6.8% in 2025, and the government will support a petrochemical - industry restructuring project [36]. - Thailand's central bank unexpectedly cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points [38]. International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks rose, with the Dow up 0.63%, S&P 500 up 0.81%, and Nasdaq up 1.26% [39]. - European stocks also rose, driven by positive corporate earnings and economic data [39]. - Japanese and South Korean stocks hit new highs, with South Korea's stock - market capitalization rising in global rankings [40]. - South Korea's external financial assets reached a record high in 2025 [40]. - Japan's exchange group appointed a new Tokyo Stock Exchange president [42]. - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may go public this year, valued at $500 - 700 billion [43]. Commodities - Agricultural Bank of China adjusted the margin ratio of some precious - metal contracts [44]. - Oil prices were supported by geopolitical tensions despite a large increase in U.S. crude inventory [44]. - Precious - metal prices rose due to geopolitical tensions, inflation expectations, and supply concerns [44]. - London base metals all rose [45]. - CME had a technical glitch in its natural - gas and metal - futures markets [45]. - JPMorgan expects gold to reach $6300 per ounce by the end of 2026 [47]. Bonds - China's inter - bank bond market adjusted, and bond yields generally rose [48]. - Hong Kong will explore cooperation in bond - related areas with the mainland [48]. - U.S. bond yields rose [48]. Foreign Exchange - The RMB strengthened after the Spring Festival, breaking through 6.87 against the U.S. dollar [49]. - The U.S. dollar index fell, and most non - U.S. currencies rose [51]. Upcoming Events - At 09:20, 400 billion yuan of reverse repurchases expire in China's central - bank open market [53]. - At 09:30, a Japanese central - bank official will give a speech [53]. - At 15:00, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce will hold a press conference [53]. - At 16:30, the ECB president will speak in the EU Parliament [53]. - At 17:00, a Bank of England official will give a speech [53]. - At 20:30, Baidu will hold an earnings conference call [53]. - At 23:00, a Fed official will testify in the U.S. Senate [53]. - Other events include the Japanese central - bank market - operation meeting, South Korea's central - bank interest - rate decision, Huawei's product launch, and the listing of Tongbao Optoelectronics [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The domestic commodity futures market closed mostly higher on February 25, 2026, with base metals leading the gains [1]. - The A - share market is expected to continue a mild upward trend after the Spring Festival, but the slope will be slower than in January, pricing in the warm Spring Festival consumption and technology event hotspots. The black metal and domestic bond markets may continue to fluctuate after the festival [16]. - The US economy shows a pattern of overall slowdown in expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. The US GDP growth rate slowed significantly in the fourth quarter, with personal consumption being the main drag, and inflation stickiness still exists [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures all showed varying degrees of increase on February 25, 2026, with the CSI 500 futures having a relatively large daily increase of 1.61% [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures mostly declined on February 25, 2026, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having a relatively large daily decline of 0.48% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index increased by 0.15% on February 25, 2026, and the US dollar mid - price decreased by 225 pips [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased by 23.34 bp on February 25, 2026, and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield increased by 1.24 bp [2]. Popular Industry Fluctuations - On February 25, 2026, most industries showed an upward trend, with non - ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals having relatively large daily increases of 3.53%, 4.26%, and 2.37% respectively. The consumer services and media industries declined, with decreases of 0.52% and 0.92% respectively [5]. Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On February 24, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 0.35%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 0.14%, NYMEX natural gas decreased by 2.94%, and ICE UK natural gas decreased by 4.75% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold decreased by 1.25% on February 24, 2026, while CONEX silver increased by 0.57% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper, LME aluminum, LME zinc, LME tin, etc. showed different trends on February 24, 2026. For example, LME copper increased by 2.54% [8]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and other agricultural products also had different price changes on February 24, 2026. For example, CBOT soybean oil increased by 1.05% [8]. Macro Summary - **Domestic Macro**: During the Spring Festival, travel and consumption were strong, with the cross - regional passenger flow in the first 20 days of the Spring Festival travel season reaching 5.08 billion person - times, a record high. However, real estate sales were at a seasonal low, and the social financing in January started steadily. Due to the Spring Festival misalignment, the social financing data needs to be observed in combination with January - February data [16]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy shows a pattern of overall slowdown in expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. The GDP growth rate slowed significantly in the fourth quarter, personal consumption was the main drag, and inflation stickiness still exists [16]. - **Large - scale Assets**: Geopolitical uncertainties and Trump's tariff policies may support the prices of gold and silver in the short term. The crude oil market is dominated by geopolitical uncertainties, and the A - share market is expected to continue a mild upward trend after the Spring Festival. The black metal and domestic bond markets may continue to fluctuate, and the RMB may continue to strengthen in the second quarter [16]. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; stock index options are expected to be volatile; treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile [17]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [17]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe is expected to be volatile [17]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are all expected to be volatile [17]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Many non - ferrous metals and new materials such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are expected to be volatile, with some showing a slightly stronger trend [17]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc. are expected to be volatile [19]. - **Agriculture**: Many agricultural products such as cotton, natural rubber, and soybean oil are expected to be volatile, with some showing a slightly stronger trend, while sugar is expected to be volatile and slightly weaker [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The latest released US economic data is divergent. The economic growth in Q4 of last year was lower than expected, but inflation exceeded expectations, intensifying policy uncertainty and market concerns about the US economy falling into stagflation. The ambiguity of US trade policy weakens investors' confidence in US assets and increases global market volatility risks. Geopolitical tensions in Iran persist. COMEX gold and COMEX silver both rose and then fell on Wednesday. Investors are advised to control positions and prevent risks due to the uncertainty of the new round of US - Iran negotiations [1][2] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 0.14% to $5183.70 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 1.95% to $89.21 per ounce. The main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.65% to 1153.9 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 4% to 23365 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of February 25, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust increased by 3.43 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1097.62 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 28.18 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 16079.74 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 2%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 98.0%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April is 15.9%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 83.8%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 0.3%. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by June is 39.5% [1] - CME suspended trading of metal and natural gas futures and options due to a "technical problem" [1] - US Trade Representative Greer said that the US will issue an announcement on a 15% tariff [1] - In the latest situation in Iran, the US government set restrictions on the new Iran nuclear agreement: no expiration clause. Trump said that the first choice is to resolve the Iran nuclear issue through diplomatic means. Iranian Foreign Minister arrived in Geneva and is ready to hold the third - round indirect talks with US representatives on the 26th [1] Market Logic - The US Customs stopped collecting the tariff ruled illegal by the Supreme Court from February 24. Trump's 10% "global tariff" took effect on February 24. On Wednesday, US Trade Representative Greer said that the US will issue an announcement on a 15% tariff [1] - The initial value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 in the US was 1.4%, and the government shutdown dragged down the GDP by about 1 percentage point, far lower than the expected 3.0%. The year - on - year increase of the core PCE price index in December in the US was 3.0%, higher than the expected 2.9%, and the month - on - month increase was 0.4%, indicating that inflation pressure still exists [1] Trading Strategy - Due to the uncertainty of the new round of US - Iran negotiations, investors should control positions and prevent risks [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 25, 2026, A-share market indices rose: the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.72% to 4147.23, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.29% to 14475.87, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.41% to 3354.82. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2481.2 billion, up 262.8 billion from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index remained strong on February 25, closing at 4735.89, up 28.34 [2] - The coke weighted index had a wide - range shock on February 25, closing at 1680.8, up 38.1; the coking coal weighted index had an interval consolidation, closing at 1139.8 yuan, up 25.4 [2][3] - Zhengzhou sugar futures showed an oscillating trend on February 25, with the 2605 contract closing slightly down, and then rising at night due to short - covering. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 40.5 million tons, the same as the previous year [4] - Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly on February 25 due to tight raw material supply and increased spot prices. As of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 610,000 tons to 6.677 million tons, a 10.05% increase [4][5] - CBOT soybean futures rose on February 25. Brazil's soybean harvest progress is slow, and its February export is expected to be 10.69 million tons. In the domestic market, the main contract of soybean meal rose by 1.8% to 2831 yuan/ton. The supply of soybean meal is expected to remain loose [5] - The main contract of live pigs rose by 1.78% to 11465 yuan/ton on February 25. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [5] - Palm oil futures adjusted and then oscillated upward on February 25. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 25 decreased compared with the same period last month [5] - Shanghai copper futures showed a strong upward trend on February 25. The downstream demand is recovering, the supply is tight, and the inventory is expected to decrease [5] - Iron ore futures rose on February 25. The shipping volume has increased, the arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] - Asphalt futures fell on February 25. The supply is seasonally shrinking, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] - Zhengzhou cotton futures rose at night on February 25. The inventory increased, and the yarn price started to rise [6] - Log futures opened at 792 on February 25, with a closing price of 796 and an increase in positions of 1477 hands. The domestic spot market is stable [6][7] - Steel futures rebounded on February 25. The downstream has not fully resumed work, and the steel price is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [7] - Alumina futures closed at 2870 yuan/ton on February 25. The production capacity is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the price is under pressure [7] - Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 23835 yuan/ton on February 25. The supply is good, the inventory is high, and the demand is gradually recovering [7] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On February 25, A - share market indices rose, and the trading volume increased [1] - The CSI 300 index remained strong, closing at 4735.89, up 28.34 [2] Coke and Coking Coal - The coke weighted index had a wide - range shock on February 25, closing at 1680.8, up 38.1; the coking coal weighted index had an interval consolidation, closing at 1139.8 yuan, up 25.4 [2][3] - Most coke enterprises maintained normal production during the Spring Festival, with some inventory backlog. The terminal demand was stagnant during the Spring Festival, and steel mills had weak willingness to replenish inventory. For coking coal, state - owned mines have basically resumed production, private mines will gradually resume production, and Mongolian coal ports will resume normal customs clearance after the festival. The market trading was scarce during the holiday [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the stabilization of US sugar, the increase in spot prices, and the off - season of consumption, the 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar showed an oscillating trend on February 25, closing slightly down, and then rising at night due to short - covering. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 40.5 million tons, the same as the previous year [4] Rubber - Due to adverse weather in Thailand and Indonesia during the leaf - falling period, the raw material supply tightened, and the spot price increased. Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly on February 25 and at night. As of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 610,000 tons to 6.677 million tons, a 10.05% increase [4][5] Soybean Meal - CBOT soybean futures rose on February 25. Brazil's soybean harvest progress is slow, and its February export is expected to be 10.69 million tons. In the domestic market, the main contract of soybean meal rose by 1.8% to 2831 yuan/ton. The supply of soybean meal is expected to remain loose [5] Live Pigs - The main contract of live pigs rose by 1.78% to 11465 yuan/ton on February 25. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to focus on the culling progress of sows and the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises [5] Palm Oil - Palm oil futures adjusted and then oscillated upward on February 25. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 25 decreased compared with the same period last month [5] Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper futures showed a strong upward trend on February 25. The downstream demand is recovering, the supply is tight, and the inventory is expected to decrease [5] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures rose on February 25. The shipping volume has increased, the arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] Asphalt - Asphalt futures fell on February 25. The supply is seasonally shrinking, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton futures rose at night on February 25. The inventory increased, and the yarn price started to rise [6] Logs - Log futures opened at 792 on February 25, with a closing price of 796 and an increase in positions of 1477 hands. The domestic spot market is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6][7] Steel - Steel futures rebounded on February 25. The downstream has not fully resumed work, and the steel price is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [7] Alumina - Alumina futures closed at 2870 yuan/ton on February 25. The production capacity is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the price is under pressure [7] Shanghai Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 23835 yuan/ton on February 25. The supply is good, the inventory is high, and the demand is gradually recovering [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to sufficient supply and weak demand, the market structure of Asian high - sulfur fuel oil has further weakened. The spot spread of 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil has declined for three consecutive trading days after hitting a nearly 11 - month high in the week ending February 20. The spot spread of Singapore 0.5% sulfur marine fuel is at a premium of $1.88 per ton, the highest level since January 29 [3]. - The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 18 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is - 7 yuan/ton, with the spot being nearly at par with the futures [3]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of February 18 was 26.649 million barrels, an increase of 270,000 barrels [3]. - The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward - sloping [3]. - The high - sulfur main contract has short positions, with an increase in short positions; the low - sulfur main contract also has short positions, with a decrease in short positions [3]. - Iran is willing to take necessary measures to reach an agreement with the US before the nuclear negotiations later this week, easing geopolitical concerns slightly and causing a slight decline in fuel oil prices. FU2605 is expected to trade in the range of 2950 - 3000, and LU2605 in the range of 3440 - 3490 [3]. - The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The price of the FU main contract futures decreased from 2953 to 2934, a decline of 0.64%. The price of the LU main contract futures decreased from 3477 to 3464, a decline of 0.37%. The FU basis increased from - 19 to 18, an increase of 193.49%. The LU basis decreased from 7 to - 7, a decrease of 199% [5]. - The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel decreased from 508.00 to 500.00, a decline of 1.57%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel decreased from 510.00 to 505.00, a decline of 0.98%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel increased from 412.82 to 419.99, an increase of 1.74%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel decreased from 494.50 to 488.32, a decline of 1.25%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel increased from 381.96 to 388.86, an increase of 1.81%. The price of Singapore diesel increased from 666.13 to 671.50, an increase of 0.81% [6]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Iran's situation is volatile; China's import quota is issued [4]. - Bearish factors: The optimism of the demand side remains to be verified; the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak due to sufficient supply and weak demand. The spot spread of 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil has declined, while the spot spread of Singapore 0.5% sulfur marine fuel is at a premium [3]. - The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 18 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is - 7 yuan/ton, with the spot being nearly at par with the futures [3]. - The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward - sloping [3]. - The high - sulfur main contract has short positions, with an increase in short positions; the low - sulfur main contract also has short positions, with a decrease in short positions [3]. 4. Spread Data - The spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur futures is presented in the graph, with values ranging from - 3000 to 0 [10]. 5. Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of February 18 was 26.649 million barrels, an increase of 270,000 barrels. The inventory has been increasing over time, with details of inventory and changes from December 2025 to February 2026 provided [3][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current focus of the negotiation is on Iran's domestic uranium enrichment and inventory disposal. The US emphasizes that Iran should not possess nuclear weapons and prefers diplomatic solutions, while Iran is willing to sign a new agreement to ensure the peaceful nature of its nuclear program to avoid war. Geopolitical concerns have slightly weakened. Coupled with a significant increase in EIA crude oil inventories and OPEC+'s expected resumption of production increase in April, the fundamentals of oil prices have been affected. In the short term, oil prices will adjust. Recently, the soaring crude oil freight has made the domestic oil price slightly stronger than the international one. Considering the tightened sanctions on the shadow fleets of Russia and Iran, the high freight may last for some time, and the domestic strength over the international market may also last longer. SC2604 is expected to operate in the range of 483 - 495, and investors are advised to wait for opportunities to short at high levels in the long term [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Saudi Arabia is increasing oil production and exports as an emergency plan in case of any US strike on Iran. OPEC+ may consider increasing crude oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in April. The US Vice President Vance said that President Trump still prefers to resolve the Iran issue through diplomatic means [3] - **Basis**: On February 25, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.42 per barrel, and the spot price of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.85 per barrel. The basis was 39.47 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending February 20 increased by 11.427 million barrels, far exceeding the expected increase of 1.25 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the same period increased by 15.989 million barrels, also far exceeding the expected increase of 1.481 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 881,000 barrels. As of February 25, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 2.557 million barrels [3] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average [3] - **Main Position**: As of February 17, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions. The main position of Brent crude oil was also long, but with a decrease in long positions [3] - **Expectation**: The short - term price will adjust. The domestic oil price is slightly stronger than the international one, and this situation may last for a long time. SC2604 is expected to operate in the range of 483 - 495, and long - term investors can wait for opportunities to short at high levels [3] 3.2 Recent News - **Negotiation**: On the evening of the 25th, the Iranian foreign minister led a delegation to Geneva for the third round of indirect negotiations between the US and Iran. The US and Iran held the second round of indirect negotiations on the 17th, and both sides said the negotiation had made progress. The US has recently massed troops in the Middle East, but the US Vice President Vance said that the US hopes to reach a "good solution" through diplomatic means [5] - **Inventory**: The EIA data showed that due to a decrease in refinery capacity utilization and an increase in imports, the US crude oil inventory for the week ending February 20 increased by 16 million barrels, far exceeding the expected increase of 1.5 million barrels, reaching the highest level in eight and a half months [5] - **Sanction**: The US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on more than 30 individuals, entities, and "shadow fleet" vessels, as well as multiple networks, for facilitating Iran's illegal oil sales, ballistic missile, and weapon production [5] 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Concerns about sanctions on Russia and the tense situation in Iran [6] - **Likely to Fall**: IEA's concern about crude oil surplus and the alleviation of supply problems in some oil - producing countries [6] - **Market Driver**: Short - term focus on geopolitics, long - term risk of oversupply [6] - **Risk Points**: Disruption of OPEC+ internal unity and the escalation of war risks [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil increased by $0.11 to $70.69, with an increase of 0.16%. The settlement price of WTI crude oil decreased by $0.21 to $65.42, with a decrease of 0.32%. The settlement price of SC crude oil decreased by 0.30 to 489.6, with a decrease of 0.06%. The settlement price of Oman crude oil increased by $0.46 to $70.42, with an increase of 0.66% [7] - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd decreased by $0.20 to $71.20, with a decrease of 0.28%. The price of WTI decreased by $0.21 to $65.42, with a decrease of 0.32%. The price of Oman crude oil decreased by $0.22 to $70.42, with a decrease of 0.31%. The price of Shengli crude oil decreased by $0.37 to $67.61, with a decrease of 0.54%. The price of Dubai crude oil decreased by $0.24 to $70.54, with a decrease of 0.34% [9] - **Inventory Trend**: The API inventory for the week ending February 20 increased by 11.427 million barrels to 462.249 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the same period increased by 15.989 million barrels to 435.804 million barrels [10][14] 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of February 17, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 141,343, an increase of 23,529 [17] - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of February 17, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 2,631,863, a decrease of 17,876 [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend - bearish and oscillating - bearish views on some varieties, and oscillating and oscillating - bullish views on others [4]. - Based on quantitative indicators, there are bearish, oscillating, and bullish views on different varieties [9]. - In the macro - financial sector, the performance of small - and medium - cap index futures is optimistic, and the bond market is mainly in a band - trading mode [16][18]. - In the black sector, steel and iron ore are expected to oscillate in the short term, and coking coal and coke may oscillate weakly [20][22]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, copper and lithium carbonate may show a bullish - oscillating trend in the short term, while industrial silicon and polysilicon will oscillate [27][28]. - In the agricultural products sector, cotton is bullish, sugar is in a low - level oscillation, and the performance of other products varies [32][33]. - In the energy - chemical sector, the oil price is in a game between geopolitical risks and fundamental oversupply, and the performance of other products is also affected by various factors [43]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited China from February 25th to 26th, and both sides are willing to deepen economic and trade cooperation [11]. - The US Trade Representative may take tariff measures regarding China's implementation of the first - phase economic and trade agreement, and China hopes the US to view the issue objectively [11]. - Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Seven Articles" to optimize the real - estate policy, including relaxing purchase restrictions and increasing the housing provident fund loan limit [12]. - US President Trump announced continuous tariff increases and other policies in his State of the Union address, and there were some inaccurate data and misleading views in his speech [12]. - NVIDIA's Q4 revenue in fiscal year 2026 exceeded expectations, and it expects higher revenue in Q1 of fiscal year 2027 [13]. - Henan Province plans to promote large - scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, aiming to complete about 500,000 vehicle replacements and 5 million household appliance replacements by the end of 2026 [13]. - SpaceX may conduct an IPO in June with a valuation of over $1.5 trillion, and Blue Arrow Aerospace plans to conduct a recovery test of the reusable rocket Zhuque - 3 in Q2 [13][14]. - The US will impose countervailing duties on crystalline silicon solar cell components imported from India, Indonesia, and Laos, and the CME Group had a technical failure [14]. 3.2 Macro - Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to be optimistic about the performance of small - and medium - cap index futures, and pay attention to liquidity support. After the holiday, the IC index is likely to perform better than the IH index due to the active market trading and rising risk appetite [16][17]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The strategy is to use a band - trading approach as the short - term odds are insufficient. The bond market weakened after the release of the "Shanghai Seven Articles", and the yield may face resistance to further decline without interest - rate cut expectations. Attention should be paid to the incremental policies in the government work report [18]. 3.3 Black Sector 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - In the spot market, the steel order situation is mixed, and the high inventory after the holiday may suppress prices. In the short term, steel and iron ore will oscillate. The short - position of iron ore at a high level can be partially closed, and the short - position can be held lightly [20]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate weakly in the short term. After the holiday, the supply will recover quickly, while the demand will recover slowly. The supply - demand pattern will tend to be loose [22]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - After entering March, seasonal maintenance will be carried out, which may repair the losses of the semi - coke industry. It is recommended to hold a long - position in ferrosilicon [23]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Currently, the strategy is to wait and see. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new production capacity. For glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines and the subsequent demand [25]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous and New Materials 3.4.1 Copper - In the short term, copper prices may oscillate bullishly due to a slight decrease in tariffs, but the increase in domestic social inventory will put pressure on prices. In the long term, the tight supply pattern of global copper mines will support the price center [27]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the demand is good, and the supply is disturbed, so the price will be bullish. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips [28]. 3.4.3 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon will oscillate, and polysilicon will oscillate in a wide range. The supply - demand situation of both is weak, and the market may be in a state of oscillation for a long time [29][30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Domestically, the market is bullish, focusing on the post - holiday demand recovery. Internationally, the cotton price is affected by the US tariff policy and the supply - demand situation in Brazil [32]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The supply is seasonally abundant, and the replenishment demand has not started. The domestic sugar price follows the international price and oscillates at a low level [33]. 3.5.3 Eggs - After the holiday, the egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. The futures price will oscillate due to the weak spot price and the expected future price increase [35]. 3.5.4 Apples - High - quality apple products may show a bullish trend, and the futures price may also be bullish. The market will be in an oscillating state in the short term [37]. 3.5.5 Corn - The futures price will oscillate bullishly in the short term, but the price increase will slow down due to the pressure of ground - stored grain and imported grains [38]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - The market will oscillate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the sales situation in the sales areas and the mentality of purchasers [39][40]. 3.5.7 Pigs - After the holiday, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, so the spot price is likely to be weak. It is not recommended to short the near - month futures contract [41]. 3.6 Energy - Chemical Sector 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The oil price is in a game between geopolitical risks and fundamental oversupply. The upside space is limited in the short term [43]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the short - term trading focus is the impact of oil prices dominated by geopolitics [45]. 3.6.3 Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure, but the unstable situation in the Middle East provides some support. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [45]. 3.6.4 Synthetic Rubber - Do not chase the rise blindly. There is still room for a decline in the short term, and the RU - BR spread may weaken after March [48]. 3.6.5 Methanol - The current supply - demand situation has improved slightly. Pay attention to the port inventory and the supply from Iran. The price may be weak in the short term, but do not be overly bearish [49]. 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - The price of caustic soda futures will oscillate. The price is affected by the downstream demand, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, and the futures - spot price difference [50]. 3.6.7 Asphalt - The asphalt price follows the oil price, and the increase is expected to be smaller than that of crude oil. Pay attention to the replenishment demand after winter storage in March [51]. 3.6.8 PVC - PVC may oscillate bullishly in the short term, but the core supply - demand contradiction has not been improved. Be cautious about the long - term price trend [52][53]. 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term supply - demand situation is still under pressure, and the price mainly follows the oil price adjustment. Consider the opportunity of positive arbitrage between May and September for PX and PTA [54]. 3.6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The near - month and far - month contracts of LPG show different trends. The far - month contract is expected to be weak if the geopolitical conflict does not intensify [55]. 3.6.11 Pulp - The pulp price will oscillate upward. Pay attention to the port inventory and the implementation of product price increases [57]. 3.6.12 Logs - The price of logs is supported by the cost. Pay attention to the resumption of work in processing plants and the port inventory after the holiday [58]. 3.6.13 Urea - The urea futures price will oscillate in a wide range. The spot price is stable, and the futures market is affected by emotions [59].