1 月 30 日， A 股早盘低开低走。截至发稿，沪指跌破 4100 点，上证指数和深证成指跌幅均超1.5%。 板块方面，有色金属、钢铁、建材等跌幅居前。有色板块现跌停潮，南山铝业、铜陵有色、白银有色、云南铜业、兴业银锡等近 30 股跌停。 农业、文化传媒、银行等板块逆势上涨。 | 万得全A | 创业板指 | | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6719.75 | 3285.53 | | 1519.29 | | -127.53 -1.86% | -18.98 -0.57% | | -16.71 -1.09% | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | | 中证A500 | | 4677.87 | 8270.91 | | 5847.13 | | -76.00 -1.60% -246.94 -2.90% -121.78 -2.04% | | | | | 中证1000 | 深证100 | | 中证红利 | | 8150.97 | 5793.86 | | 5690.23 | | -181.24 -2.18% | -60.46 -1.03% | | -67.41 -1.17% | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dynamics of the Chinese capital market, likening it to a martial arts arena where various assets rotate in and out of favor, driven by market forces and investor sentiment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The past two to three years in the Chinese capital market have seen a cautious approach, initially favoring long-term government bonds as a safe investment, attracting many investors seeking stability [3]. - Recently, there has been a significant influx of capital into technology and banking stocks, which have gained momentum and popularity, creating a vibrant trading atmosphere [3]. - Currently, commodities such as gold, non-ferrous metals, and energy stocks are gaining attention, as they are viewed as resilient assets capable of withstanding inflation and protecting wealth [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - The article suggests that the market's rotation logic appears to be functioning well, with capital flows aligning with the rhythm of asset classes transitioning from bonds to stocks and now to commodities [4]. - However, it warns that the market is subject to sudden changes due to policy adjustments, regulatory signals, and fluctuations in liquidity, which could disrupt the current trends [4][5]. - Investors are encouraged to stay alert and adapt to the market's changing winds, as the current favorable conditions may not last indefinitely [5].

周四市场呈现红绿盘震荡的格局，投资者可以看到，早盘沪指高开4点于4155点，创业板低开1点于3322 点，开盘以后有色、石油板块急速跳水翻绿，带领指数快速回落，两市仅900多股上涨，之后跳水翻绿 最低4138点后回稳，盘面指数红绿盘震荡，盘尾冲高确认4170点反压以后遇阻，白酒板块涨停潮，但两 市个股跌多涨少，各大指数涨跌很小！最终沪指收涨10点于4162点，创业板收跌5点于3318点！那么对 于这种行情 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 29 日 0 / 49 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：承接进一步加强 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：增量信息依旧有限 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应扰动增加 | 美豆走势偏强 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外盘价格下调，国内价格强势 6 | | | 油脂板块：原油带动油脂继续上涨 8 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货回落，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力增加 | 价格下行增加 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 11 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 12 | | | 棉花-棉纱：整体变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 13 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价延续震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：驱动不明显，关注资金扰动 14 | | 铁矿：终端需求低位，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：估值偏低存在修复需求，短期震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：美联储稍显鹰派 但金银不改强势 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：联储议息会 ...

Market Overview - On January 28, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.57%[3] - The total trading volume on January 28 was approximately 2.99 trillion CNY, an increase of about 70 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - Over half of the sectors experienced declines, with non-ferrous metals, chemicals, oil, and coal showing the most significant gains, while military, pharmaceuticals, home appliances, and media sectors faced the largest losses[1] - The market has shifted focus from technology to cyclical sectors, with the trend in cyclical commodities expanding from precious metals to non-ferrous and chemical sectors[1] Investment Trends - Main capital inflows on January 28 included 79.03 million CNY into the Shanghai market and 736 million CNY into the Shenzhen market, with industrial metals, semiconductors, and precious metals being the top sectors for inflows[3] - The report indicates that nearly 60% of surveyed foreign enterprises plan to increase investments in China, reflecting a positive outlook on the Chinese business environment[7] Economic Indicators - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the cumulative tax reductions and refunds exceeded 1 trillion CNY, supporting the growth of business entities[4] - By the end of 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China is expected to reach 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%[9] ETF Market Activity - The total trading volume of ETFs reached a historical high of 762.83 billion CNY, with stock ETFs accounting for 351.6 billion CNY and bond ETFs for 276.98 billion CNY[12] - The first ETF with a market cap exceeding 100 billion CNY focused on Hong Kong stocks has been launched, indicating a significant interest in this market segment[11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Focus - The report focuses on the **materials and energy sectors**, specifically highlighting trends in **non-ferrous metals, oil, chemicals, and storage** industries [1]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Non-Ferrous Metals Price Increase**: Driven by geopolitical risk aversion and concerns over US dollar credit, prices for non-ferrous metals such as **silver and gold** have risen. This price increase is impacting the cost structure in the **semiconductor manufacturing and testing sectors**, particularly affecting **passive components and power devices** [1]. 2. **Oil Price Surge**: Supply-side disruptions combined with escalating geopolitical tensions have led to an increase in oil prices. This rise is being transmitted downstream, resulting in price hikes in the **chemical sector** and **consumer building materials** such as waterproofing and coatings [1]. 3. **AI-Driven Price Increases**: The strong demand for AI technologies is causing a price surge across various sectors, including **semiconductor manufacturing and testing, storage, CPUs, and cloud services** [1]. Other Important Insights - The report indicates a **deep transmission and linkage** of price increases throughout the supply chain, suggesting a systemic impact across multiple industries [1].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Company Involvement - The notes discuss various ETFs including industrial and commodity ETFs, specifically mentioning Penghua ETFs such as 159162 (Industrial and Nonferrous ETF), 159697 (Oil ETF), and 159698 (Grain ETF) [1][2] - The focus is on the performance of the U.S. stock market, Hong Kong stock market, and the implications for A-shares and technology sectors [1][2][3] Core Points and Arguments - The U.S. stock market experienced volatility with a high opening followed by a decline, while the semiconductor sector showed strong performance [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, and there was no additional guidance from Powell, leading to fluctuations in the dollar and commodities [1] - Gold prices surged close to 5600, silver approached 120, and oil reached a four-month high, indicating strong commodity market trends [1] - The Penghua Industrial and Nonferrous ETFs are gaining momentum, with a strategy of buying on dips being reinforced despite increased volatility [1] - The Hong Kong stock market showed signs of recovery with a significant upward movement, driven by resource cycles and financial support [2] - The performance of the Hang Seng Central Enterprise ETF is noted to be superior to dividend-focused investments recently [2] - There is a consensus on the dual trends of cyclical and technological sectors, although technology stocks faced liquidity siphoning from cyclical stocks [3] - The semiconductor industry, particularly related to price increases, remains robust, with specific ETFs like the AIDC and cloud computing ETFs expected to perform well [3] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The notes highlight the increasing interest in the grain sector, with the grain ETF showing a bullish trend [2] - There is a mention of the potential for short-term bullish sentiment leading up to the Chinese New Year, despite external pressures on A-shares [2] - The notes suggest that the market is currently focused on price increase chains, particularly in the semiconductor industry, indicating a broader market trend [2][3] - The anticipation of Tesla's earnings report and comments from Musk is noted as a catalyst for investment in new energy and robotics ETFs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent commodity market is not characterized by a rotational bull market across different sectors and varieties, but rather by isolated interest from funds in certain products, indicating a lack of macroeconomic forces influencing the entire commodity market. Given that many products have reached high levels and there are signs of weaker products catching up, a prolonged adjustment period in the commodity market is anticipated [4][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The commodity market has seen rapid surges in specific star products such as gold, silver, corn, PTA, and styrene, leading to speculation about a rotational bull market. However, the market's recent volatility does not exhibit typical rotational characteristics [4][6]. - The traditional patterns of the commodity market can be categorized into three types: 1. **Product Differentiation Pattern**: Products move independently based on their fundamentals, typically occurring in the absence of significant macro themes [5]. 2. **Leading Product Pattern**: A clear leader, such as the black series during the 2016 supply-side reform, drives the market, with other products following its lead [5]. 3. **Rotational Pattern**: The summer of 2023 exemplified this, with a sequence of rotations among different sectors, although the current market displays a mix of characteristics from both rotational and leading product patterns [6]. Group 2: Chemical Products Outlook - There is a prevailing market sentiment that the commodity market is in a rotational bull phase, particularly with expectations for chemical products to take over the upward momentum. However, this assessment may be flawed [7]. - The performance of the non-ferrous metals, particularly copper and nickel, has shown significant gains over a prolonged period, but their current high levels and insufficient correction suggest limited potential for further increases [7]. - The chemical products sector, while showing some promise, faces challenges: the recent surge began from a relatively high point rather than a low base, indicating a rebound rather than a sustainable growth phase. Key products like styrene have already seen substantial gains, and the leading products lack the momentum for continued upward movement [7][8].

2026开年以来，A股市场交投热度持续高企，但主要股指却表现分化。截至1月28日，中证500指数开年 以来的涨幅超过15%，中证1000、国证2000指数亦涨逾10%。与之形成鲜明对比的是，上证50指数仅微 涨0.97%，沪深300指数涨幅为1.90%。不同股指之间的"剪刀差"持续拉大。 在市场结构急剧变化的背景下，多家一线私募机构对投资逻辑、潜在风险及策略应对进行了深入分析。 多数机构认为，这一分化主要由增量资金的结构偏好与宏观流动性驱动，且已累积了明显的结构性风 险。整体来看，市场风格的再平衡随时可能出现，投资者在"进攻"的同时，需要时刻记牢"防守"。 ● 本报记者 王辉 资金流向与风险偏好生变 近期市场分化的核心驱动力，直指资金的流向与偏好的变迁。多家私募认为，近期市场股指、个股"冰 火两重天"的格局，本质上是增量资金的结构与风险偏好发生深刻变化的结果。 "核心原因，就在于增量资金的风险偏好变了。"畅力资产董事长宝晓辉开门见山地表示，部分定期存款 到期以及其他新入场的增量资金，在低利率环境下寻找更高收益机会，这部分资金更倾向于投向"弹性 大、想象空间足"的中小盘成长股。相比之下，以上证50、沪深300为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant divergence in performance among major indices, with the CSI 500 index rising over 15% and the CSI 1000 and National CSI 2000 indices increasing by more than 10%, while the Shanghai 50 index only saw a slight increase of 0.97% and the CSI 300 index rose by 1.90% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent divergence in the market is primarily driven by changes in the flow and risk preferences of incremental capital, with a notable shift towards small and mid-cap growth stocks that offer higher elasticity and potential [2][3] - The net redemption scale of broad-based ETFs represented by the CSI 300 has reached approximately 100 billion, putting pressure on the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 component stocks [2] - The current market liquidity is very ample, leading to a preference for concept investments in sectors like commercial aerospace and AI hardware, which are attracting significant capital inflows [3] Group 2: Valuation Concerns - There is a growing concern about structural overvaluation in the market, with some private equity professionals noting that the valuation system may have reached historically high levels [4] - The total market capitalization of CSI 300 component stocks is comparable to that of over 5,000 other companies, but there is a significant profit disparity, indicating a clear overvaluation in some stocks [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Private equity firms are adopting a balanced "offensive and defensive" strategy, focusing on both growth and value investments to navigate the current market conditions [5][6] - Key investment focuses include sectors with global pricing attributes such as resources and cutting-edge technology, while also considering undervalued, high-dividend assets as a safety net [6][7] - The strategy emphasizes maintaining a diversified portfolio that includes growth stocks, resource stocks, and defensive high-dividend stocks to mitigate potential market volatility [7]