| 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 646880 | 506234 | 11.88 | 1.23 | | 深证成指 | 216579 | 183153 | 19.96 | 2.11 | | 创业板指 | 57266 | 45276 | 26.60 | 3.71 | | 科创 50 | 34342 | 22440 | 54.48 | 4.14 | | 北证 50 | 3130 | 2151 | 49.62 | 4.93 | | 何晨 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号:S0530513080001 | | | hechen@hnchasing.com | | | 陈郁双 | 分析师 | | 执业证书编号:S0530524110001 | | chenyushuang@hnchasing.com 证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 20 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Construction Industry**: Focus on Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Chemical, Honglu Steel Structure - **Building Materials Industry**: Emphasis on consumer building materials and specific companies - **Environmental Industry**: Highlighting water and waste incineration sectors - **Pork Industry**: Analysis of pig prices and leading companies - **Agriculture Sector**: Focus on Haida Group - **Banking Sector**: Analysis of Ningbo Bank - **Media Sector**: Overview of the media industry and specific companies - **Steel Industry**: Insights on major steel companies - **Sportswear Industry**: Analysis of Anta Sports - **Liquor Industry**: Overview of the liquor market and key players Core Points and Arguments Construction Industry - **Sichuan Road and Bridge**: Expected to benefit from the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle strategy, with a projected dividend yield of 6.2% in 2025 and a 25% upside potential in market value [1][3][4] - **China Chemical**: Strong overseas order growth, particularly benefiting from Xinjiang coal chemical construction, with a projected order volume of 400-500 billion [1][3][4] - **Honglu Steel Structure**: Anticipated 30%+ growth in performance due to improved export expectations and smart production efficiencies [1][4] Building Materials Industry - **Consumer Building Materials**: 2025 is expected to be a bottom year, with 2026 as a turning point due to resilient second-hand housing market demand [1][6][7][8] - **Key Companies**: Focus on Beixin Building Materials and Yilong Co., with projected growth rates of over 30% [1][9] Environmental Industry - **Water and Waste Incineration**: High dividend yield sectors, with water pricing reforms expected to enhance profitability [1][10][11][12] - **Specific Companies**: Hongcheng Environment and Hanlan Environment recommended for their stable growth and high dividend rates [1][12][13] Pork Industry - **Price Trends**: Pig prices are expected to remain above the breakeven point, with leading companies like Muyuan and Wens becoming attractive investment targets [1][16] Agriculture Sector - **Haida Group**: Projected significant growth in overseas markets, with a focus on expanding production capacity [1][17] Banking Sector - **Ningbo Bank**: Strong long-term investment value with a projected PB of 0.7x and a net interest income growth of over 15% [1][18][20] Media Sector - **Overall Performance**: The media sector has shown significant recovery, with recommended stocks including Mango Super Media and Kaiying Network [1][25][26][28] Steel Industry - **Current Trends**: High capacity utilization and stable smelting profits, with recommended stocks including Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and Hualing [1][36][40][41][42][43] Sportswear Industry - **Anta Sports**: Expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth over the next three years, with a stable dividend policy [1][32][33] Liquor Industry - **Market Recovery**: Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to maintain stable growth, with a focus on dividend policies [1][34][35] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Market Environment**: Current market conditions are characterized by unpredictable external changes, making long-term value investment strategies more favorable [2] - **Investment Opportunities**: Emphasis on identifying undervalued stocks across various sectors, particularly in the context of changing economic conditions and consumer demand [1][31]

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating of Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. remains stable at AA+ due to its strong position in the pig farming industry, improved profitability, and efficient management, despite potential risks from price fluctuations and debt structure [4][10][17]. Group 1: Company Overview - Muyuan Foods is a leading player in the pig farming industry, with a complete pork supply chain including feed processing, breeding, and slaughtering [10][13]. - The company has a pig farming capacity of 81 million heads per year, ranking first in the industry, and a slaughtering capacity of 29 million heads per year [13][14]. - The company has maintained a stable ownership structure, with major shareholders holding over 50% of the voting rights [11][12]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 18.93 billion yuan, significantly improving from previous years [20][21]. - The average cost of pig farming decreased to 14.01 yuan per kilogram in 2024, with a target of 12 yuan per kilogram by 2025 [15][16]. - The company's total assets reached 195.41 billion yuan, with total liabilities at 121.37 billion yuan, indicating a healthy balance sheet [20][21]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - The company benefits from a strong procurement cost advantage and improved internal management efficiency, leading to lower farming costs [6][10]. - Muyuan Foods plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its international presence [8][12]. - The company is focused on expanding its overseas business and improving its debt structure, with a goal to reduce debt by 10 billion yuan in 2025 [16][17]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The company faces significant risks from fluctuations in pig prices and feed costs, which can impact profitability [4][10][17]. - Short-term debt levels are rising, indicating a need for optimization in the debt structure [8][17]. - The company must continuously monitor and manage risks related to disease outbreaks and environmental regulations [10][12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Synchronize with the Market" [2] Core Viewpoints - In April 2025, the overall pig output of listed pig companies decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year, with a total output of 16.69 million heads, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.25% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.27% [6] - The average selling price of commodity pigs in April was 14.95 yuan/kg, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 1.05% [6] - The report suggests that the supply of commodity pigs will be marginally relaxed in 2025, with expected average selling prices lower than last year, but quality pig companies are likely to maintain good profitability due to low costs and efficiency advantages [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experienced a decline of 2.02% in the last month, but a growth of 5.13% over three months, and a decline of 6.81% over twelve months [4] Key Stock Analysis - For the key stock "Muyuan Foods," the estimated EPS for 2024 is 3.27 yuan with a PE ratio of 11.99, while for 2025 it is projected to be 2.64 yuan with a PE ratio of 14.87, and for 2026, it is expected to be 3.93 yuan with a PE ratio of 9.98, with a rating of "Increase Holding" [6] Sales Data - In April, the commodity pig output from listed companies was 13.73 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 2.88%, while the cumulative output from January to April was 52.35 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 18.91% [6] - The sales volume of piglets in April was 2.31 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 18.68%, but the cumulative sales from January to April showed a significant year-on-year increase of 241.77% for Muyuan Foods [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [6] Core Views - The agricultural sector is seen as a stable consumer goods category with strong demand and policy support, making it a potential safe haven for funds in a complex external environment [4] - The current prices of major meat proteins and agricultural products are in a bottoming phase, with quality leading companies expected to achieve stable growth in performance [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - For the week of May 12-16, 2025, the agricultural sector underperformed the market by 1.07 percentage points, with the Shenwan Agricultural Index closing at 2,620.55, up 0.05% [15][17] - Among sub-sectors, the animal health sector rose by 7.36%, while feed and fishery sectors increased by 2.04% and 0.91% respectively; however, agricultural processing, breeding, and planting sectors saw declines of 0.90%, 0.96%, and 1.29% respectively [15][17] Key Industry Data Swine Farming - As of May 16, 2025, the average price of live pigs nationwide was 14.61 CNY/kg, down 1.42% week-on-week and down 4.76% year-on-year; self-breeding profits were 80.66 CNY/head, decreasing by 3.67 CNY/head week-on-week [2][21] Poultry - As of May 16, 2025, the average price of broiler chicks was 2.85 CNY/chick, down 2.06% week-on-week, and the price of white feather broilers was 7.40 CNY/kg, down 0.67% week-on-week [2][27] Agricultural Products - As of May 16, 2025, the average price of wheat was 2,468.89 CNY/ton, up 0.33% week-on-week; corn was 2,304.29 CNY/ton, up 0.50% week-on-week; however, soybean meal prices fell to 2,988.00 CNY/ton, down 9.45% week-on-week [3][35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality swine companies with strong cost control, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [4] - For the poultry sector, it recommends looking at integrated leaders like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock for their cost advantages [4] - In the feed sector, Haida Group is highlighted as a beneficiary of recovering livestock inventory [4] - For agricultural products, attention is drawn to Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang, as well as seed companies like Denghai Seeds and Longping High-Tech [4]

2025 年 05 月 19 日 农林牧渔 气温升高消费增幅受限，猪价或震荡偏 弱 生猪养殖：气温升高消费增幅受限，猪价或震荡偏弱 价格端：本周生猪均价 14.77 元/kg，周环比-0.27%，两周环比-0.07%； 仔猪价格 630 元/头，周环比-2.63%，两周环比-1.47%。根据 iFinD 数据，本周猪肉批发价格 20.84 元/kg，周环比+0.07%。 供给端：本周生猪日均屠宰量为 16.91 万头，周环比变动-2.49%。 周观点：周内全国均价震荡偏弱，整体来看，本周终端需求表现平淡， 屠企白条反馈走货难度较强，维持对价格的下压操作，可供应端口尚 未呈现明显节奏加快表现，从而传导至屠企端口竞价较为谨慎，所以 本周日间价格波动幅度不大。短期来看，气温升高拖累消费整体增幅 空间受限，不过从供给端口来看，头部集团、放养公司以及二次育肥， 均存在一定增量空间，所以供需对抗预期来看，供给端议价话语权或 有下降，所以预计近期行情维持偏弱运行。 家禽养殖：白羽肉鸡久稳小跌，分割品强硬挺价 周观点：据我的钢铁网显示，本周种蛋价格偏弱势运行为主。受鸡苗 价格弱势影响，种蛋市场交投不快，企业上孵意愿偏弱，且种 ...

Core Viewpoint - The livestock sector is experiencing a rebound, with the livestock ETF (159865) showing a slight increase and over 250 million net inflow in the past five days. The optimism in the industry is driven by improving performance of listed pig companies due to the recovery of the pig market last year [1][2]. Industry Supply - The near three-year capacity clearance is the foundation for the expected rise in pig prices in 2024. However, the capacity reduction rhythm may show fluctuations in the second half of 2024, with recent data indicating a return to a downward trend [2]. - As of April 2024, the number of breeding sows is reported at 39.86 million, a decrease of approximately 10% from the peak of 43.90 million in June 2021. By March 2025, the breeding sow inventory is expected to decline to 40.39 million, indicating a re-entry into the capacity reduction phase [2]. Cost Control - Significant cost optimization efforts by pig farming companies have provided support for performance improvement within the industry. Even with potential fluctuations in pig price cycles, leading pig companies are expected to maintain a certain profit margin [2]. - If pig prices begin to rise again, companies may benefit from the widening "scissors gap" between rising prices and declining costs, potentially leading to overall profitability exceeding market expectations [2].

Group 1 - The livestock sector is currently active, with the Livestock ETF (159865) seeing a net inflow of over 250 million yuan in the past five days [1] - The opening of the market today saw livestock prices rise against the trend, with the Livestock ETF (159865) increasing by over 0.5% [1] - Institutional reports indicate that the performance of listed pig companies is improving as the pig market rebounded last year, leading to a rise in industry optimism [1] Group 2 - The supply side is supported by nearly three years of capacity clearance, which is the foundation for rising pig prices in 2024 [1] - Although the pace of capacity reduction may fluctuate in the second half of 2024, recent data indicates a return to a downward trend [1] - Cost optimization efforts by pig farming companies have significantly supported the improvement in industry performance [1] Group 3 - While it is too early to declare a turning point for pig prices, the Livestock ETF (159865), currently at a low point, remains worthy of attention [1]

Core Viewpoint - The succession issue at leading pig farming company Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) has garnered attention as founder Qin Yinglin discusses the company's internationalization strategy and the performance of the next-generation management team during the 2024 annual shareholder meeting. The company has recently emerged from a prolonged low cycle in the pig market, achieving a revenue of 137.947 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 24.43% year-on-year increase [1][5][6]. Group 1: Company Growth and Performance - Muyuan Foods has experienced a remarkable revenue growth of approximately 52 times over the past decade, with 2024 revenue reaching 137.947 billion yuan [5][6]. - The company has successfully reduced its pig farming costs, achieving a cost of 12.4 yuan per kilogram in April 2025, with a target of 12 yuan per kilogram for the entire year [6]. - In 2022, Muyuan Foods saw a significant net profit increase of 92.16%, recovering to 13.266 billion yuan after a challenging period in 2021 when net profit dropped by 74.85% [5][6]. Group 2: Succession and Management - Qin Yinglin has established a succession plan, training a second-generation management team with an average age of under 35, composed of business veterans who have grown from the grassroots level [7][8]. - Qin Yinglin's son, Qin Muyuan, is responsible for the meat processing segment and has articulated the development strategy for this sector during the shareholder meeting [7]. Group 3: Internationalization Strategy - Muyuan Foods is advancing its internationalization strategy, including plans for a Hong Kong stock listing to create an international capital operation platform [6]. - The company aims to address the urgent needs of pig farming operators in Southeast Asia regarding disease control and facility upgrades, which presents opportunities for overseas business expansion [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the pig price is expected to remain weak in the short term, with an overall supply surplus anticipated for the year, leading to a bearish outlook on prices [2][15] - The report suggests a shift from "cyclical thinking" to focusing on "quality and price" in investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of operational efficiency among different companies [4][16] - The outbreak of avian influenza in Brazil is expected to impact chicken prices positively in the domestic market, while the industry is seeing a concentration of profit margins towards upstream sources [5][17] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The latest pig price is reported at 14.58 CNY/kg, with an average weight of 129.71 kg for market pigs. The price for 15 kg piglets is 630 CNY/head, and the price difference for 175 kg market pigs has decreased to 0.36 CNY/kg [3][15] - The number of breeding sows in March was 40.39 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% and a decrease of 0.96% from the end of 2024, indicating a stable production capacity [3][15] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the pig farming sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, due to their strong profit certainty in 2025 [4][16] 2. Poultry Industry - The outbreak of avian influenza in Brazil may lead to trade bans, which could support a rebound in domestic chicken prices. The current price for broiler chickens is 7.4 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease from the previous month [5][17] - The report identifies two main investment lines: high-return quality imported breeding stock and comprehensive industry leaders like San Nong Development [5][17] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to its cash flow turning point and high overseas growth potential. The fish prices have increased, while feed prices have decreased, indicating a recovery in aquaculture profitability [6][19] - The report notes that the capital expansion phase has ended, and leading companies are entering a new phase of stable cash flow [7][19] 4. Pet Industry - In April 2025, the sales figures for pet food showed a decline, with cat and dog food sales at 810 million CNY and 380 million CNY, respectively, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 4.7% and 6.2% [9][20] - The report highlights the strong performance of domestic brands like Mai Fudi and the growth of companies like Zhongchong, which are gaining market share [10][24] 5. Agricultural Products - The report indicates that domestic agricultural products are less affected by tariffs, with a potential upward trend in prices due to reduced imports. The forecast for corn imports has been adjusted down to 7 million tons for the 2024/2025 period [11][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of agricultural stocks as a defensive asset class, suggesting that the sector is currently undervalued [11][26] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3889 points, up 1.12% from the previous week, while the agriculture index rose slightly by 0.05% to 2621 points [27][29] - The report notes that the pet food sector performed the best among sub-sectors, with a significant increase of 10.93% [27][29]