Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metals Sector**: The focus is on supply disruptions creating opportunities within the metals sector, particularly in precious metals, industrial metals, and energy metals [1][5]. Core Insights and Arguments Precious Metals - **Long-term Drivers**: The precious metals market benefits from global de-dollarization, central bank gold purchases, and increased ETF investments. The Chinese central bank is a major player, purchasing 24-25 tons of gold in 2025 [4]. - **Current Prices**: Gold and silver prices have reached new highs, with gold at 44,981 CNY and silver at 103 CNY. The demand for silver is expected to rise due to high physical and investment demand [2][10]. - **ETF Trends**: The trend of increasing ETF investments in gold is expected to continue, supporting price growth [8]. Industrial and Energy Metals - **Price Increases**: Significant price increases have been observed in copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium, with lithium prices surpassing 180,000 CNY. Supply constraints due to geopolitical issues and ESG factors are limiting supply growth [2][5]. - **Copper Supply Issues**: Supply disruptions from strikes in Chile are expected to keep copper prices strong in the short term [3][17]. - **Lithium Market Outlook**: The lithium market is optimistic due to increased demand from electric vehicles and energy storage, despite recent price surges posing short-term risks [12]. Nickel Market - **Supply Concerns**: The nickel market is closely watching Indonesia's nickel quota, which could lead to a supply shortage if reduced to 260 million tons. The demand from the EV sector is expected to grow, but caution is advised [13][15]. Aluminum Market - **Current Trends**: Aluminum prices are supported by geopolitical events and recovering demand from downstream processing industries. The market is expected to remain tight due to limited domestic supply growth [21][23]. Silver Market - **Demand Dynamics**: The silver market has been in a supply shortage since 2021, with fluctuations in physical and investment demand. Despite a decrease in photovoltaic demand, overall demand is expected to rise, supporting price increases [9][10]. Steel Industry - **Current Performance**: The steel industry shows mixed performance, with production growth in some areas but overall demand expected to remain stable due to reduced real estate activity. Investment opportunities are seen in companies with strong fundamentals [30][32]. Other Important Insights - **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on companies with competitive advantages in the metals sector, including leading firms in precious metals and energy metals. Specific recommendations include companies like Tianqi Lithium and Northern Rare Earth [28]. - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the metals market is optimistic, driven by strong demand and supply constraints, with potential for price increases across various metals [2][5][12]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics within the metals sector and providing insights into future trends and investment opportunities.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions lightly and rolling for copper; strengthening waiting and seeing for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish trend for silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda, benzene, rubber, urea, methanol; weak oscillation for polyolefins; waiting and seeing for soda ash [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillatory adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn; weak oscillation for apples and jujubes [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short - selling opportunities on rebounds for hogs; not advisable to chase short positions in the short term for eggs; being cautious about chasing high prices and waiting for rebounds to hedge at high prices for corn; shorting on rallies for soybean meal; weak oscillation for rapeseed oil, limited rebounds for soybean oil and palm oil [1] Core Views - Geopolitical disturbances are increasing, which strengthens the precious metals sector. Stock indices may trade in a range, and government bonds are expected to oscillate. The coal market has a wait - and - see sentiment due to weak fundamentals. Rebar is in a short - term range - bound state. Glass is expected to oscillate weakly. Copper is affected by the game between macro - level support and weak fundamentals. Aluminum may continue high - level adjustments. Nickel is affected by various factors and is recommended to be observed. Tin supply is tight, and it is recommended for range trading. Silver and gold are affected by geopolitical and economic factors, with their medium - term price centers moving up. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly. PVC may have bottomed out. Caustic soda has short - term delivery pressure. Benzene styrene has a high valuation and is recommended to be cautious about chasing up. Rubber has cost support and may continue to rise. Urea supply is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate. Methanol is affected by supply and demand and geopolitical factors. Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly. Soda ash has supply - demand contradictions, and it is recommended to wait and see. Cotton and cotton yarn have long - term optimistic expectations. Apples and jujubes are in a weak oscillation state. Hogs are in a bottom - building stage, with different strategies for different periods. Eggs are not advisable to chase short positions in the short term. Corn is in a short - term balance and has a loose supply - demand pattern in the medium to long term. Soybean meal has different trends for different contracts. Oils have different trends, with rapeseed oil being weak and soybean and palm oil having limited rebounds [1][5][6][8][10][11][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][24][25][26][27][30][33][34][35][36][37][43][44] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggesting buying on dips. Geopolitical disturbances increase, and the precious metals sector strengthens, causing stock indices to potentially trade in a range [1][5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. The long - end and ultra - long - end of government bonds face resistance in further decline, while short - end varieties have strong allocation enthusiasm [1][6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coal market has a wait - and - see sentiment due to weak fundamentals, with supply disturbances potentially limiting the downside, but demand weakness is the dominant factor [8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The price rebounded on Friday, with a slightly low static valuation. In the short term, it is in a range - bound state due to a short - term policy vacuum and small supply - demand contradictions [8] - **Glass**: Waiting and seeing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 1050 - 1070. The manufacturer's shipping speed slows down, and the market lacks upward momentum [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions lightly and rolling. The price is in a high - level oscillation, with strong macro - level support but weak fundamentals. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of long - position profit - taking before the Spring Festival [11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthening waiting and seeing. The price may continue high - level adjustments due to factors such as changes in supply and demand and macro - level sentiment [13] - **Nickel**: Waiting and seeing. Affected by factors such as Indonesia's quota reduction and weak fundamentals, the price has risen, but it is recommended to wait and see as the market has fully priced in [14] - **Tin**: Range trading or taking profit on previous long positions. The supply is tight, and the downstream maintains rigid demand. It is recommended to pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand [15][16] - **Silver**: Bullish trend. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors, the medium - term price center moves up, and it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about opening new positions [16] - **Gold**: Range trading. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors, the medium - term price center moves up, and it is recommended to trade in a range and be cautious about chasing high prices [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. The supply and demand are both strong, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is necessary to pay attention to the disturbance of Yichun's mining end [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. The bottom may have been reached. The supply - demand situation is still weak, but there are opportunities for structural upgrading. It is recommended to take a long - term low - buying approach [17][19] - **Caustic Soda**: Waiting and seeing. There is short - term delivery pressure, and the upside is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to supply - side adjustments and other factors [19] - **Benzene Styrene**: Range trading. The price has rebounded, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [20][21] - **Rubber**: Range trading. The cost support is strong, and the price may continue to rise. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory and downstream demand [20][21] - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate within the range of 1730 - 1830. It is necessary to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [22][23] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The supply in the inland area recovers, and the demand is mixed. The price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and supply factors [24] - **Polyolefins**: Weak oscillation. The cost support is strengthened, but the supply increases and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: Waiting and seeing. The supply - demand contradiction is relieved, and the downside is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillatory adjustment. The long - term expectation is optimistic, but it is recommended to be cautious in the short term [27] - **Apples**: Weak oscillation. The Spring Festival stocking is in progress, but the trading of farmers' goods is slow, and the prices in some areas are loose [27] - **Jujubes**: Weak oscillation. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market trading is stable [29][30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Short - selling opportunities on rebounds. The supply pressure is large in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the production capacity is being reduced, but it is still above the equilibrium level, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices [30][31][33] - **Eggs**: Not advisable to chase short positions in the short term. The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. In the long term, the production capacity needs time to clear, and it is necessary to pay attention to external factors [33][34] - **Corn**: Being cautious about chasing high prices and waiting for rebounds to hedge at high prices. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: Shorting on rallies. The short - term support is strong, but the long - term price is under pressure. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [36] - **Oils**: Weak oscillation for rapeseed oil, limited rebounds for soybean and palm oil. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up for soybean and palm oil and pay attention to spread trading [37][43][44]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3][4][5] 2) Core Views - For building materials, the price is expected to move in an oscillatory and consolidative manner, with the focus shifting downward and showing a weak performance [2][4] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be strong at a high level in the short - term, showing a strong oscillatory trend [2][5] 3) Summary by Related Contents Building Materials - **Production Suspension**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a production suspension during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - **Real - estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - **Market Situation**: The price of building materials continued to decline oscillatory yesterday, reaching a new low. In a situation of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, with low enthusiasm for winter storage and weak price support [4] - **Later - stage Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum Ingots - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Due to frictions between the US and NATO on the Greenland issue, sanctions on Iran, concerns about the Fed's independence, and uncertainties in tariffs, the US dollar is under pressure, and the overall non - ferrous metals are running strongly [3][5] - **Supply - side Situation**: In the north, some mining areas have reduced production due to weather. In the Henan Xin'an area, bauxite production was suspended due to blizzards and is now gradually resuming. The supply of ore has decreased by about 80% and is gradually recovering. In the south, domestic ore production is stable, and the price of domestic ore is expected to remain stable in the short - term [4] - **Industry Operation**: The overall aluminum processing start - up rate was 60.9%, up 0.7 percentage points from last week. Different sub - industries have different situations, with some affected by environmental protection, weather, etc. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas reached 777,000 tons on January 26, an increase of 28,000 tons from last Monday [4] - **Price Outlook**: The price of aluminum is expected to be strong at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - events, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that the finished steel will be in a low - level consolidation operation [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Logic Section - In December 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 139.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. The global crude steel output in 2025 was 1.8494 billion tons [3] - In mid - January, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was 1.979 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period; the steel inventory was 16.13 million tons, a 7.3% increase from the previous ten - day period and a 0.8% increase from the same period last month [3] - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.51%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average hot metal output was 2.281 million tons, an increase of 0.09 million tons from the previous week [3] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in the country was 57.94%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 41.18 percentage points year - on - year [3] - The finished steel fluctuated last week, first falling and then rising. The late - week rebound was driven by the raw material end, and the steel price continued to consolidate in the low - level range. The market drive is not strong, and the weak demand characteristics put some pressure on the price. The macro - market has been relatively calm recently, providing no trend guidance for the price [3] Group 4: Summary According to the View Section - The finished steel will be in a low - level consolidation operation [4] - Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]

Group 1 - The Japanese Nuclear Regulation Authority has decided to conduct on-site inspections of Chubu Electric Power Company and its Hamaoka Nuclear Power Plant due to allegations of data falsification in the restart review process [1] - The Hamaoka Nuclear Power Plant has been a subject of safety concerns, especially since it is located in a region prone to significant seismic activity, which has heightened public anxiety following the recent data falsification incident [1] - Chubu Electric Power Company admitted to intentionally selecting favorable data in its seismic assessments submitted to the Nuclear Regulation Authority, which undermines public trust in nuclear safety [1] Group 2 - Data falsification has become a widespread issue among Japanese companies, with notable incidents including Kobe Steel's manipulation of inspection data and Mitsubishi Electric's long-term data fraud spanning over 30 years [2] - The frequency of data falsification incidents is attributed to a closed internal culture within Japanese companies, where top-down communication stifles employee feedback and encourages a culture of compliance over transparency [2] - The pressure from management and resource constraints have led employees to resort to unethical practices, as they feel compelled to meet unrealistic targets without adequate support [3] Group 3 - The inability of Japanese companies to learn from past failures and address internal issues is a significant factor contributing to the persistence of data falsification [3] - There is a critical need for Japanese companies to reform their internal mechanisms and open communication channels to effectively combat the culture of data manipulation [3]

方大特钢方面披露，截至公告披露日，徐志新持有公司无限售条件流通股292.35万股，占公司总股本的 0.13%；吴爱萍持有公司无限售条件流通股114.30万股，占公司总股本0.05%。 据上海证券交易所发布的上市公司定期报告预约披露情况，方大特钢2025年年报披露日期为2026年3月 21日。2025年10月30日方大特钢披露的2025年第三季度报告显示，公司2025年1—9月实现营业收入 132.33亿元，同比减少18.45%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润7.89亿元，同比增长317.39%；经营活动 产生的现金流量净额5.39亿元，同比减少62.78%。（厉平） 方大特钢(600507)1月23日晚间发布公告，公司董事徐志新、董事会秘书吴爱萍计划通过集中竞价方式 减持公司股份，其中徐志新减持不超过73.09万股，吴爱萍减持不超过28.58万股，减持期限为2026年2月 24日至2026年5月22日，在此期间，若公司有送股、资本公积转增股本等事项，减持股份数、减持比例 将相应调整。徐志新与吴爱萍披露的减持原因相同，均为缴纳股权激励税款等个人资金需求。 ...

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/01/26 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/19 | 2186 | 2264 | 2054 | 2250 | 2217 | 2109 | | 2026/01/20 | 2185 | 2264 | 2054 | 2250 | 2217 | 2109 | | 2026/01/21 | 2185 | 2265 | 2052 | 2248 | 2217 | 2109 | | 2026/01/22 | 2184 | 2266 | 2052 | 2248 | 2217 | 2109 | | 2026/01/23 | 2185 | 2266 | 2052 | 2248 | 2218 | 2109 | | 环比 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论 ...

人民币升值期间大类资产复盘 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20260116-20260123) 本期投资提示： 全球资本市场回顾： 本周 (20260116-20260123)全球地缘政治冲突加剧，贵金属继续上 行。1）固收方面， 10Y美债收益率维持在4.2%的水平，美元指数下行1.88%； 2）权益 方面， 本周上证指数整体上行，中证1000和科创50涨幅靠前，上证50跌幅较大；全球市 场中巴西、阿根廷股价涨幅较大，其中A股行业中建筑材料，石油石化、钢铁涨幅靠前， 银行跌幅较大，港股耐用消费品领涨； 3）商品方面， 本周黄金上涨8.3%，主要是因为 地缘政治冲突集中爆发。 聚焦热点：人民币升值期间大类资产表现复盘 ：2000年以来，人民币汇率共经历了6轮升 值与4轮贬值，人民币汇率变化主要受到汇率制度改革、全球贸易周期以及中美货币政策 周期变化的影响。 国内大类资产方面，人民币升值期间，股票稳定的胜率更高，债券和 商品表现规律并不统一。 股票方面 ，创业板整体跑赢沪深300（除2017年），小盘整体 跑赢大盘（除2017年）。 债券方面， 2017、2023、2025年升值期间，国债指数录得负收 益，其他几 ...

Group 1 - The overall market trend for 2026 is expected to be optimistic, driven by a combination of fundamental, liquidity, sentiment, and policy factors [1][2] - China's GDP has surpassed 140 trillion, indicating a strong economic achievement that supports market performance [1] - Despite a recent cooling in market sentiment, the overall bullish sentiment remains high, and the market is currently undergoing a necessary adjustment phase [2] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that previous bull markets have been characterized by short bursts of activity followed by long periods of adjustment, which negatively impacted investor experiences [3] - The current market environment is being guided towards healthier long-term development through measures such as increased margin requirements and regulatory support [4] - The AI sector remains a key focus for 2026, with strong growth expected in upstream computing power and semiconductor equipment due to expansion and rising demand [5][6] Group 3 - The innovative drug sector is projected to continue its growth trajectory in 2026, focusing on new drug platforms and expanding applications for existing treatments [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the black sector showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of rebar fell 0.7% week - on - week, hot - rolled coil fell 0.3%, iron ore fell 2.1%, coke rose 0.3%, and coking coal fell 1.2%. The furnace material end showed weakness. In the off - season, the overall contradictions in the steel market were limited. The absolute level of rebar inventory was not high and the pressure was not great. The production of hot - rolled coil was significantly lower than the same period last year, which supported the gradual reduction of inventory and the continuous decline of pressure. The molten iron production was generally flat, the blast furnace profit was average, and steel mills had little enthusiasm for expansion. The overall performance of commodities was strong, and the Wenhua Commodity Index rose above 170 again, bringing external drive to the black sector [2]. - From the perspective of the black sector's own supply and demand, the support from raw materials is weakening, but the inventory pressure of coils is marginally reducing. The overall contradictions in the industry are relatively limited. The commodity index has risen to a key pressure level again, and there is a possibility of a breakthrough upwards in the later period. In the short term, the futures market may rebound supported by the overall bullish sentiment, but due to the general fundamental conditions, it may be difficult to have sustainability, and it is still judged to operate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - **Black Sector Futures Performance**: This week, the main contract of rebar fell 0.7% week - on - week, hot - rolled coil fell 0.3%, iron ore fell 2.1%, coke rose 0.3%, and coking coal fell 1.2% [2]. - **Steel Supply and Demand**: In the off - season, the overall contradictions in the steel market were limited. The absolute level of rebar inventory was not high and the pressure was not great. The production of hot - rolled coil was significantly lower than the same period last year, which supported the gradual reduction of inventory and the continuous decline of pressure. The molten iron production was generally flat, the blast furnace profit was average, and steel mills had little enthusiasm for expansion [2]. - **External Drive**: The overall performance of commodities was strong, and the Wenhua Commodity Index rose above 170 again, bringing external drive to the black sector [2]. Steel Production Data - **Monthly Data (December 2025)**: The monthly production of pig iron was 60720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%; the cumulative production was 836,040,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The monthly production of crude steel was 68,180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%; the cumulative production was 960,810,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The monthly production of steel was 115,310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; the cumulative production was 1,446,120,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The monthly import of steel was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7%; the cumulative import was 6,060,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. The monthly export of steel was 11,300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%; the cumulative export was 119,020,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [5]. - **Weekly Data (January 23, 2026)**: The weekly production of rebar was 1,995,500 tons, an increase of 92,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The weekly consumption was 1,855,200 tons, a decrease of 48,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 0%. The inventory was 4,521,000 tons, an increase of 140,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.44%. The weekly production of wire rod was 751,300 tons, an increase of 16,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The weekly consumption was 740,000 tons, an increase of 27,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 5%. The inventory was 926,000 tons, an increase of 8,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. The weekly production of hot - rolled coil was 3,054,100 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The weekly consumption was 3,099,600 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2%. The inventory was 3,577,800 tons, a decrease of 45,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The weekly production of cold - rolled coil was 884,300 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.84%. The weekly consumption was 882,200 tons, a decrease of 37,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 2.9%. The inventory was 1,587,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.92%. The weekly production of medium and heavy plate was 1,510,700 tons, a decrease of 73,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.14%. The weekly consumption was 1,515,300 tons, a decrease of 66,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 0.97%. The inventory was 1,959,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.41%. The total weekly production of the five major steel products was 8,195,900 tons, an increase of 3,800 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The total weekly consumption was 8,100,000 tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.87%. The total inventory was 12,570,000 tons, an increase of 1,007,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [6]. Steel Demand Data - **Real Estate High - Frequency Data**: In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 10%. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land acquisition area of 100 cities was 19% [29]. - **Cement and Concrete Demand**: The cement出库量 was lower than the previous year for most of 2025, and it is still lower than the same period last year in 2026. The concrete delivery volume is the same as the same period last year [32]. - **Steel Export**: In December, the steel export volume was 11.3 million tons, close to the historical high level. The export profit of hot - rolled coil has rebounded slightly recently [38]. Steel Inventory and Spread Data - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coil has been reduced, and the space for further contraction is relatively limited. The East China basis of rebar has risen to around 150, which is at a high level in the same period and may be difficult to strengthen further [3]. - **Rebar Basis**: The rebar basis has strengthened slightly this week, and the absolute level is relatively high. Currently, the production profit of rebar is generally better than that of hot - rolled coil, which is also reflected in the month - on - month increase in rebar production. According to past rules, the basis is expected to narrow, but the convergence amplitude may be weaker than in previous years under the support of low inventory [51]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Basis**: The hot - rolled coil basis is running around - 0 and has strengthened slightly. The inventory of hot - rolled coil is continuously decreasing supported by the decline in production, which supports the basis [59]. - **Rebar Month - to - Month Spread**: The 5 - 10 month - to - month spread of rebar has been fluctuating in the negative range with limited fluctuations. The rebar inventory stopped decreasing this week, and the inventory increase is earlier from a lunar calendar perspective. After the production control in 2025 ended, the release of production capacity may lead to a relatively better supply of rebar, and the month - to - month spread is difficult to strengthen [66]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Month - to - Month Spread**: The 5 - 10 month - to - month spread of hot - rolled coil fluctuates around - 20 with little change [71]. - **Coil - Rebar Spread**: The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coil has been reduced, and the space for further contraction is relatively limited [3].