Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Livestock Daily Report - Pig Market" - Report Date: January 29, 2026 - Research Institute: Galaxy Futures Research Institute [1][6] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided for the industry in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall pressure on pig supply continues to increase, with large-scale enterprises, ordinary farmers, and secondary fattening all showing an increase in the number of pigs for sale, leading to a downward trend in pig prices [3][4] - The current high pig inventory and large average weight of pigs for sale indicate that the supply pressure will persist, and the overall trend of the pig market is expected to be downward [4] - Pig futures prices are also facing downward pressure due to continued weakness in the spot market and expected future supply pressure [4] Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Prices - Today, pig prices across the country showed a downward trend, with the average price dropping from 12.56 yuan/kg yesterday to 12.30 yuan/kg today [3] - All regions experienced price declines, with the largest drop in Guangdong at 0.4 yuan/kg [3] Futures Prices - Most pig futures contracts showed a downward trend today, with LH03, LH05, LH07, LH09, and LH11 all declining, while only LH01 increased slightly by 45 points [3] Sow and Piglet Prices - Piglet prices increased from 353 yuan last week to 367 yuan this week, while sow prices remained unchanged at 1557 yuan [3] Breeding Profits - The profit from self - breeding and self - raising increased from 7.39 yuan/head yesterday to 43.35 yuan/head today, and the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening increased from 48.35 yuan/head to 115.84 yuan/head [3] Slaughter Data - The daily slaughter volume decreased from 188,439 heads yesterday to 185,256 heads today, a decrease of 3183 heads [3] Price Spreads - The price spreads between different sizes of pigs increased, indicating a change in the supply and demand relationship of different - sized pig sources [3] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - Arbitrage trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - Options trading: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [5]

今天有三个不相信，第一个是沪金主力一天可以涨7.88%，这可是商品期货，带杠杆的，而且此前已经有不少的涨幅，有人说这种加速是对手盘被动止损产 生的反向回补，但情况是这玩儿是国际定价，并不是我们黄金市场限制交易就能理解的，国外黄金涨了你不跟着涨？所以黄金已经看不懂。有研究员说，顺 周期涨价顺序是黄金—白银—基础金属—石油—化工—农业，里面没有黑色金属，因为黑色金属并不是国际定价，大家真要看好顺周期别往钢铁潜伏就行， 其它的看运气。 第二个是白酒，今天板块涨幅9.68%，白酒昨天还在创历史新低，突然来了一根这么大的阳线，你说是超跌反弹也行，你说是行业拐点也行，反正短周期趋 势被打断，就算再创新低，估计两周内不可能出现了，然后不少踏空的开始酸白酒踏空，我觉得没有必要，除非你昨天真的感觉白酒要启动，否则今年持有 白酒，依旧是亏损的，更别说是一直持有的。 第三个是大佬改游戏规则了，十点没有砸盘，涨0.5%也没有砸盘，而是横盘，成交量最大的时候砸盘，可能大家都被这个节奏吓坏了，于是今天是本周第 四天3000+待涨的情况，而且上证50，沪深300涨幅超过0.5%，可指数没涨，所以中小盘成为代价，现在开始精准打击题材，但筹码 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: On January 29, 2026, copper prices increased with rising positions, breaking through the upper limit of the trading range since January. The trading volume of SHFE copper reached 700,000 contracts, and the main contract price touched 110,000 yuan. LME copper reached $14,000 per ton, rising over 6,000 yuan per ton during the day. Macroscopically, the US dollar index remained weak, leading to a general increase in precious and non - ferrous metals. Industrially, downstream buyers were hesitant, and the spread between February and March contracts continued to narrow, falling below 400 yuan per ton. In the short term, macro factors drove up copper prices, and the industry followed passively [6]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices showed a strong and volatile trend, with trading volume and prices moving in the same direction. Macroscopically, the weak US dollar index led to a general increase in non - ferrous metals. Industrially, downstream buyers were hesitant, and the spread between February and March contracts continued to narrow, falling below 100 yuan per ton. Similar to copper, macro factors drove up aluminum prices, and the industry followed passively [7]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices increased with rising positions in the morning and decreased with falling positions in the afternoon, showing an overall strong trend. Macroscopically, the weak US dollar was beneficial to non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the LME nickel 0 - 3 spread continued to narrow, and the domestic February - March spread also fell below 400 yuan per ton, reflecting a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. Macro factors drove up nickel prices, and the expected supply contraction supported nickel prices, while the weak industrial reality put pressure on them [8]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On January 29, LME copper prices soared, hitting a record high of $13,965 per ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 12% this year. Other major base metals also rose, and aluminum prices reached a three - year high. The strong performance of the commodity market at the beginning of the year was due to the weak US dollar, increased demand for physical assets, and geopolitical tensions. The weak US dollar made commodities more attractive to buyers [10]. - **Aluminum**: According to SMM data on January 29, the weekly ratio of molten aluminum in domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 72.64%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points from the previous week, and a cumulative decrease of 3 percentage points in January [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts on copper basis, month - to - month spreads, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, month - to - month spreads, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts on nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].

期货公司观点 美元贬值对现在的美国很有好处，因为美国正对外打关税战，美元贬值能抵消加征关税带来的出口成本 上涨，帮美国企业抢国际市场。这也方便美国玩弄贸易威胁的组合拳，一会儿要对加拿大、韩国加征关 税，一会儿拿格陵兰岛问题讹诈欧洲，在这种情况下，政策朝令夕改让全球投资者心慌，纷纷撤离美元 资产，转头买黄金、欧元避险。 所以，美元跌得越狠，美国的的政治经济筹码就越多，妥妥的用美元贬值换自己的政治利益，把全球市 场当棋子耍。 广发期货： 美元贬值了，很多人以为是资本选择了黄金，抛弃了美元，真相其实是美国政府故意打压美元。 当前数据显示美国就业和通胀持续放缓但部分领域在美联储降息提振下有所改善，尽管美联储未来在衡 量就业的通胀目标问题上仍有分歧短期趋于谨慎，但贸易摩擦和地缘风险的担忧驱动资金提前配置使金 价中长期上涨空间，在全球主流机构持续上调贵金属价格预测的情况下，部分机构投资者选择提前"抢 跑"配置贵金属，对价格形成支撑。市场或将更多受到美国经济数据对美联储政策预期影响和地缘局势 扰动，综合来看短期消息面影响减弱行情维持偏强震荡但波动回落，黄金在 20 日均线上方多单继续持 有，可卖出虚值看跌期权可赚取时间价值 ...

Group 1 - The main focus is on the fluctuations in gold prices, with the Shanghai gold futures reporting a price of 1249.12 yuan per gram, reflecting a 7.88% increase, and a trading range between 1180.00 and 1258.72 yuan per gram [1] - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while internal support for a rate cut remains evident [3] - The market anticipates a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy due to concerns over the labor market and inflation, which could support gold prices in the short term [3] Group 2 - The U.S. consumer confidence index has dropped significantly to 84.5, the lowest level since May 2014, indicating growing concerns over the labor market and high prices, which may lead to more cautious spending by households [1] - The U.S. Navy's Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group has entered the Central Command's area of responsibility, indicating potential military action in the Middle East if ordered by the White House [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reports stable gold futures inventory, with geopolitical uncertainties continuing to support precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver [1] Group 1: Gold Futures Market - Total gold futures inventory stands at 103,029 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The opening price for gold futures was 1,189.60 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 1,258.72 CNY and a low of 1,180.00 CNY, with the latest price at 1,249.12 CNY, reflecting a 7.88% increase [1] - Trading volume for the day was 521,258 contracts, with open interest at 211,820 contracts, showing a decrease of 10,653 contracts in daily open interest [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Recommendations - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding Iran, are expected to continue supporting demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Silver is experiencing significant market pressure due to tight spot supply and declining inventory, leading to increased speculative trading; the import window remains open, suggesting a need for cautious position management amid potential volatility [1]

| 1月29日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1249.12 | 7.88% | 521258 | 211820 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，1月29日上海黄金现货价格报价1243.01元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1249.12元/克）贴水 6.11元/克。 【黄金期货最新行情】 美国总统特朗普警告称，一支庞大舰队正迅速驶向伊朗，规模甚至超过此前派往委内瑞拉的舰队。特朗 普表示，伊朗绝不能拥有核武器，并威胁对伊朗的下一次袭击将严重得多。伊朗方面表示，若遭美国逼 迫，将作出"前所未有的"回应。 美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为13.5%，维持利率不变的概率为86.5%。美联储到4月累计降息25个 基点的概率为24.1%，维持利率不变的概率为74%，累计降息50个基点的概率为2.0%。 【机构观点】 银河期货：无视鲍威尔"中性偏鹰" 金银强势延续 今晨的美联储会议维持利率不变，和市场预期相符。新闻发布会上，鲍威尔提及经济前景改善，劳动力 和通胀风险 ...

螺纹钢产业链日报 2026/1/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,157.00 | +34↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1785380 | +40974↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -25175 | +56921↑ RB5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -46 | 0.00 | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 38283 | 0.00 HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 151 | -6↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,300.00 | +20↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,385 | +21↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,420.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,170.00 | +10↑ | | | RB 主力合约基差 ( ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the freight index (European line) futures prices rose collectively. The main contract EC2604 closed up 1.59%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 6%. The far - month contracts had larger increases due to geopolitical factors. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1,859.31, down 94.88 points from the previous week, a 4.9% week - on - week decline. The cancellation of full - refund VAT for photovoltaic products may lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume, but the price increase may be reversed later, and the spot - end support has weakened, causing the futures price to decline. China's foreign trade improved significantly in December 2026, which may be related to the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for some commodities and pre - holiday rush exports. It is expected that China's exports will maintain a high growth rate in 2026. The spot freight rates of some shipping companies have different trends, with Maersk's price reduction pressure slightly improving, while others continue to lower prices. The expectation of resuming shipping in the Red Sea has improved, and the market is optimistic about the economic recovery of the eurozone. The current freight market is greatly affected by seasonal demand. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in time [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1,249.700, up 19.5; EC second - main contract closing price: 1,576, up 86.90. - EC2604 - EC2606 spread: - 326.30, down 62.10; EC2604 - EC2608 spread: - 395.70, down 63.90. - EC contract basis: 609.61, down 20.70. - EC main contract open interest: 39,669, down 477. [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1,859.31, down 94.88; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly): 1,294.32, down 10.95. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1,457.86, down 116.26; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1,227.97, up 0.17. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1,208.75, down 1.10; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1,588.19, up 5.59. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2,016.00, down 17.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1,681.00, down 56.00. - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 0.00, up 0.00; Average charter price (Capesize ship): 24,823.00, up 5,025.00. [1] 3.3 Industry News - US President Trump threatened Iran again, and Iran's foreign minister said the armed forces were on high alert. - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts. Fed Chair candidate Waller supported a 25 - basis - point cut, in line with Trump's nominee Milan. The unemployment rate has shown initial signs of stabilization, inflation remains relatively high, and economic uncertainty is still high. - The German government lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast to 1% from 1.3% due to under - performing infrastructure investment and weak exports caused by high tariffs. [1] 3.4 Key Events to Watch - January 30, 07:30: Japan's December unemployment rate. - January 30, 14:30: France's preliminary Q4 GDP annual growth rate. - January 30, 16:55: Germany's seasonally - adjusted January unemployment rate. - January 30, 17:00: Germany's preliminary Q4 un - seasonally - adjusted GDP annual growth rate. - January 30, 18:00: Eurozone's December unemployment rate. - January 30, 21:00: Germany's preliminary January CPI monthly rate. - January 30, 21:30: US December PPI annual growth rate. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the HC2605 contract increased in price with rising positions. In terms of the macro - aspect, in the first month of the implementation of the steel export license policy, the market is experiencing "short - term pain" to find a balance under the new rules. Regarding supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils has increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.99% and a production volume of 3.0921 billion tons; terminal demand has improved, and inventories continue to be depleted. Overall, the downstream demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively resilient. Coupled with the first round of price increases for coke, the prices of furnace materials have all increased, driving up costs and steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising, and the red bars are expanding. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention should be paid to risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,308 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; the position volume is 1,547,118 lots, up 29,468 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 37,312 lots, down 18,077 lots. The HC5 - 10 contract spread is - 22 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. The HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 193,068 tons, up 8,842 tons. The HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 151 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou, it is 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Wuhan, it remains at 3,310 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it remains at 3,170 yuan/ton. The basis of the HC main contract is 2 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. The price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 799 yuan/wet ton, up 6 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 167.6285 million tons, up 2.1204 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 419,400 tons, up 14,600 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.6199 million tons, up 117,900 tons. The inventory of billets in Hebei is 1.5875 million tons, up 25,500 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.66%, down 0.16%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.53%, up 0.07%. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 3.0921 million tons, up 38,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 78.99%, up 0.97%. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 772,500 tons, up 6,100 tons. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 2.7833 million tons, down 28,100 tons. The monthly output of crude steel in China is 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons. The net export volume of steel is 1078 million tons, up 130 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 3.296 million vehicles, down 235,600 vehicles; the monthly sales are 3.2722 million vehicles, down 156,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units. The monthly output of household refrigerators is 10.0115 million units, up 569,500 units. The monthly output of household washing machines is 11.975 million units, down 38,000 units [2] Industry News - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain the federal funds rate target range between 3.5% and 3.75%. Fed Chairman Powell said that if tariff inflation peaks and then falls, the policy can be loosened, and no one expects the next meeting to raise interest rates. Only one of the three leading building materials steel mills in Shandong Province has introduced a specific winter storage policy this year [2]