【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：商品普涨，注意压力 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 棉花：市场有下游纺织厂节前补库支撑，现货走货较为顺畅，但是纺织厂补 库已渐近尾声，后续的需求支撑力度还需考量。从震荡重心上移的表现看，产业 较为看好后续走势，对节后消费提振存在预期。1 月 28 日，配额内（关税 1%） 中等质量进口棉完税成本 12502 元/吨，比国产标准级棉花价格低 3451 元/吨, 较上周扩大 146 元/吨；滑准税进口棉完税成本 13671 元/吨，比国产棉价格低 2282 元/吨，较上周扩大 147 元/吨。国内棉价上涨，内外价差有所扩大。关注 上方一万五关口压力，短期仍然高位调整看待。 白糖：巴西中南部近期气候干旱或影响 2026/27 榨季甘蔗产量预估，受此提 振，ICE 原糖期价盘中短暂向上突破 15 美分/磅整数关口，而在北半球主产国恢 复性增产背景影响下，期价随后小幅回落。 经测算，配额内巴西糖加工完税估算成本 3983 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完 税估算成本为 5059 元/吨；与日照白糖现货价比，配额内巴西糖加工完税估算利 润为 1417 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完税估算 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows an overall trend of gradually strengthening in a volatile manner. The supply pressure has eased due to reduced arrivals, the demand side has stable rigid demand, and although the ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The futures contracts are in a back structure with a positive basis and a futures discount, and the market has turned stronger again [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **期货价格**: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to fluctuate strongly during the day, closing at 798.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan/ton or 1.98% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 308,000 lots, the open interest was 555,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.758 billion yuan. The futures price stopped falling near the predicted support level of 780 and may continue to fluctuate strongly in the near term, suggesting a low - buying strategy [1]. - **现货价格**: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, rose 7 to 797 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder rose 7 to 680 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was at 104.75 (+1.7) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices strengthened again [1]. - **基差价差端**: The converted futures price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 832.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 33.9 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 19.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 13.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and a positive basis, and the futures market should be treated with a view of fluctuating strength [1]. 基本面梳理 - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, and the previous decline in shipments was transmitted to arrivals. There were expected disturbances on the supply side due to weather [2]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output increased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, the rigid demand was stable, and steel mills were in the process of replenishing inventory, but the enthusiasm was still weak. There was strong game between upstream and downstream. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of replenishment demand [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory continued to accumulate, the inventory of berthed ships increased, and the steel mill inventory also accumulated but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The total inventory pressure was still increasing [2]. 宏观层面 - **Domestic**: This week, the domestic market continued the basic pattern of "weak reality, stable policy, and strong expectation". The recovery rhythm of domestic demand was still slow, prices remained low, the upstream improvement was limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the long - term financing willingness of residents and enterprises was weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools were still being implemented. The macro environment was mainly for bottom - support, and the market still needed to wait for further confirmation of policy effects and data [4]. - **Overseas**: US consumption remained resilient, but the income growth rate slowed down and the savings rate was at a low level. Consumption relied more on credit and employment stability, and the internal driving force weakened. In terms of inflation, core inflation continued to cool down, the pressure on the commodity side eased, but the stickiness of the service item remained. The market's trading focus shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, especially the possibility of a hawkish candidate taking office. Overall, the overseas macro environment was still conducive to the resilience of risk assets, but policy uncertainty increased and asset pricing differentiation widened [4].

美联储 1 月议息：按下暂停键，维持利率在 3.5-3.75%区间，米兰和沃勒支 持降息 25BP；鲍威尔重申利率处于中性区间上端，政策没有预定路线，用数据 说话。鲍威尔还表示如果关税通胀触顶后回落，即表明可以放松政策，建议继任 者远离政治。 【冠通期货研究报告】 烧碱日报：跟踪生产企业减产情况 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 【基本面分析】 1、周末，山东液碱市场价格继续下跌，部分订单执行一单一议，实单下调 10-20 不等，省外下游采购量及价格已经出台，价格较低，采购量也不大，对山 东支撑小，省内氧化铝采购价格在周末下调 15 至 600。 2、烧碱开工率 87.70%,(+1.00%);烧碱周度产量 86.30 万吨(+1.00)。需求 方面:主力下游氧化铝开工率 85.18%(-0.65%)，氧化铝周度产量 183.90 万吨 (-1.40)，氧化铝港口库存 16.80(+3.20);印染华东开工率 56.54%(-2.22%);粘胶 短纤开工率 88.43%(+0.00%);白卡纸开工率:74.37%(-6.30%);阔叶浆开工率 89.70%(-1.30%)。 4、国家统计局 1 月 2 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Livestock Daily Report - Pig Market" - Report Date: January 29, 2026 - Research Institute: Galaxy Futures Research Institute [1][6] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided for the industry in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall pressure on pig supply continues to increase, with large-scale enterprises, ordinary farmers, and secondary fattening all showing an increase in the number of pigs for sale, leading to a downward trend in pig prices [3][4] - The current high pig inventory and large average weight of pigs for sale indicate that the supply pressure will persist, and the overall trend of the pig market is expected to be downward [4] - Pig futures prices are also facing downward pressure due to continued weakness in the spot market and expected future supply pressure [4] Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Prices - Today, pig prices across the country showed a downward trend, with the average price dropping from 12.56 yuan/kg yesterday to 12.30 yuan/kg today [3] - All regions experienced price declines, with the largest drop in Guangdong at 0.4 yuan/kg [3] Futures Prices - Most pig futures contracts showed a downward trend today, with LH03, LH05, LH07, LH09, and LH11 all declining, while only LH01 increased slightly by 45 points [3] Sow and Piglet Prices - Piglet prices increased from 353 yuan last week to 367 yuan this week, while sow prices remained unchanged at 1557 yuan [3] Breeding Profits - The profit from self - breeding and self - raising increased from 7.39 yuan/head yesterday to 43.35 yuan/head today, and the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening increased from 48.35 yuan/head to 115.84 yuan/head [3] Slaughter Data - The daily slaughter volume decreased from 188,439 heads yesterday to 185,256 heads today, a decrease of 3183 heads [3] Price Spreads - The price spreads between different sizes of pigs increased, indicating a change in the supply and demand relationship of different - sized pig sources [3] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - Arbitrage trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - Options trading: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [5]

今天有三个不相信，第一个是沪金主力一天可以涨7.88%，这可是商品期货，带杠杆的，而且此前已经有不少的涨幅，有人说这种加速是对手盘被动止损产 生的反向回补，但情况是这玩儿是国际定价，并不是我们黄金市场限制交易就能理解的，国外黄金涨了你不跟着涨？所以黄金已经看不懂。有研究员说，顺 周期涨价顺序是黄金—白银—基础金属—石油—化工—农业，里面没有黑色金属，因为黑色金属并不是国际定价，大家真要看好顺周期别往钢铁潜伏就行， 其它的看运气。 第二个是白酒，今天板块涨幅9.68%，白酒昨天还在创历史新低，突然来了一根这么大的阳线，你说是超跌反弹也行，你说是行业拐点也行，反正短周期趋 势被打断，就算再创新低，估计两周内不可能出现了，然后不少踏空的开始酸白酒踏空，我觉得没有必要，除非你昨天真的感觉白酒要启动，否则今年持有 白酒，依旧是亏损的，更别说是一直持有的。 第三个是大佬改游戏规则了，十点没有砸盘，涨0.5%也没有砸盘，而是横盘，成交量最大的时候砸盘，可能大家都被这个节奏吓坏了，于是今天是本周第 四天3000+待涨的情况，而且上证50，沪深300涨幅超过0.5%，可指数没涨，所以中小盘成为代价，现在开始精准打击题材，但筹码 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: On January 29, 2026, copper prices increased with rising positions, breaking through the upper limit of the trading range since January. The trading volume of SHFE copper reached 700,000 contracts, and the main contract price touched 110,000 yuan. LME copper reached $14,000 per ton, rising over 6,000 yuan per ton during the day. Macroscopically, the US dollar index remained weak, leading to a general increase in precious and non - ferrous metals. Industrially, downstream buyers were hesitant, and the spread between February and March contracts continued to narrow, falling below 400 yuan per ton. In the short term, macro factors drove up copper prices, and the industry followed passively [6]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices showed a strong and volatile trend, with trading volume and prices moving in the same direction. Macroscopically, the weak US dollar index led to a general increase in non - ferrous metals. Industrially, downstream buyers were hesitant, and the spread between February and March contracts continued to narrow, falling below 100 yuan per ton. Similar to copper, macro factors drove up aluminum prices, and the industry followed passively [7]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices increased with rising positions in the morning and decreased with falling positions in the afternoon, showing an overall strong trend. Macroscopically, the weak US dollar was beneficial to non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the LME nickel 0 - 3 spread continued to narrow, and the domestic February - March spread also fell below 400 yuan per ton, reflecting a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. Macro factors drove up nickel prices, and the expected supply contraction supported nickel prices, while the weak industrial reality put pressure on them [8]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On January 29, LME copper prices soared, hitting a record high of $13,965 per ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 12% this year. Other major base metals also rose, and aluminum prices reached a three - year high. The strong performance of the commodity market at the beginning of the year was due to the weak US dollar, increased demand for physical assets, and geopolitical tensions. The weak US dollar made commodities more attractive to buyers [10]. - **Aluminum**: According to SMM data on January 29, the weekly ratio of molten aluminum in domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 72.64%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points from the previous week, and a cumulative decrease of 3 percentage points in January [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts on copper basis, month - to - month spreads, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, month - to - month spreads, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts on nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].

期货公司观点 美元贬值对现在的美国很有好处，因为美国正对外打关税战，美元贬值能抵消加征关税带来的出口成本 上涨，帮美国企业抢国际市场。这也方便美国玩弄贸易威胁的组合拳，一会儿要对加拿大、韩国加征关 税，一会儿拿格陵兰岛问题讹诈欧洲，在这种情况下，政策朝令夕改让全球投资者心慌，纷纷撤离美元 资产，转头买黄金、欧元避险。 所以，美元跌得越狠，美国的的政治经济筹码就越多，妥妥的用美元贬值换自己的政治利益，把全球市 场当棋子耍。 广发期货： 美元贬值了，很多人以为是资本选择了黄金，抛弃了美元，真相其实是美国政府故意打压美元。 当前数据显示美国就业和通胀持续放缓但部分领域在美联储降息提振下有所改善，尽管美联储未来在衡 量就业的通胀目标问题上仍有分歧短期趋于谨慎，但贸易摩擦和地缘风险的担忧驱动资金提前配置使金 价中长期上涨空间，在全球主流机构持续上调贵金属价格预测的情况下，部分机构投资者选择提前"抢 跑"配置贵金属，对价格形成支撑。市场或将更多受到美国经济数据对美联储政策预期影响和地缘局势 扰动，综合来看短期消息面影响减弱行情维持偏强震荡但波动回落，黄金在 20 日均线上方多单继续持 有，可卖出虚值看跌期权可赚取时间价值 ...

Group 1 - The main focus is on the fluctuations in gold prices, with the Shanghai gold futures reporting a price of 1249.12 yuan per gram, reflecting a 7.88% increase, and a trading range between 1180.00 and 1258.72 yuan per gram [1] - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while internal support for a rate cut remains evident [3] - The market anticipates a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy due to concerns over the labor market and inflation, which could support gold prices in the short term [3] Group 2 - The U.S. consumer confidence index has dropped significantly to 84.5, the lowest level since May 2014, indicating growing concerns over the labor market and high prices, which may lead to more cautious spending by households [1] - The U.S. Navy's Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group has entered the Central Command's area of responsibility, indicating potential military action in the Middle East if ordered by the White House [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reports stable gold futures inventory, with geopolitical uncertainties continuing to support precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver [1] Group 1: Gold Futures Market - Total gold futures inventory stands at 103,029 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The opening price for gold futures was 1,189.60 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 1,258.72 CNY and a low of 1,180.00 CNY, with the latest price at 1,249.12 CNY, reflecting a 7.88% increase [1] - Trading volume for the day was 521,258 contracts, with open interest at 211,820 contracts, showing a decrease of 10,653 contracts in daily open interest [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Recommendations - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding Iran, are expected to continue supporting demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Silver is experiencing significant market pressure due to tight spot supply and declining inventory, leading to increased speculative trading; the import window remains open, suggesting a need for cautious position management amid potential volatility [1]

| 1月29日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1249.12 | 7.88% | 521258 | 211820 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，1月29日上海黄金现货价格报价1243.01元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1249.12元/克）贴水 6.11元/克。 【黄金期货最新行情】 美国总统特朗普警告称，一支庞大舰队正迅速驶向伊朗，规模甚至超过此前派往委内瑞拉的舰队。特朗 普表示，伊朗绝不能拥有核武器，并威胁对伊朗的下一次袭击将严重得多。伊朗方面表示，若遭美国逼 迫，将作出"前所未有的"回应。 美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为13.5%，维持利率不变的概率为86.5%。美联储到4月累计降息25个 基点的概率为24.1%，维持利率不变的概率为74%，累计降息50个基点的概率为2.0%。 【机构观点】 银河期货：无视鲍威尔"中性偏鹰" 金银强势延续 今晨的美联储会议维持利率不变，和市场预期相符。新闻发布会上，鲍威尔提及经济前景改善，劳动力 和通胀风险 ...