Market Overview - The equity market saw a collective rebound last week, with the North Certificate 50 index rising the most by 6.84%, followed by the ChiNext index at 5.69% and the Wande All A index at 3.56% [5][6] - The TMT sector experienced a collective rebound, with notable increases in the computer sector (7.70%), defense and military industry (6.90%), and non-bank financials (6.66%) [5][6] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include focusing on the upcoming 80th anniversary of the victory in the War of Resistance against Japan on September 3, with recommended funds such as Huashan Manufacturing Pioneer A (006154) and Boshi Military Industry Theme A (004698) [16] - The recent joint issuance of guidelines by six departments to support consumption can lead to investment opportunities in funds like ICBC Consumer Service A (481013) and Jiashi New Consumption A (001044) [17] - The National Medical Insurance Administration's issuance of guidelines for the 2025 basic medical insurance directory may benefit funds like ICBC Medical Health A (006002) and Penghua Medical Technology A (001230) [18] Asset Allocation Strategy - The overall allocation strategy suggests a balanced core plus a barbell strategy, focusing on dividend and technology sectors [19] - High dividend assets are highlighted as having significant allocation value due to the low interest rate environment and government support for dividend-paying companies [20] - The technology growth direction is emphasized due to national policy support, high industry prosperity, and the need for domestic companies to enhance competitiveness [21] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The central bank's recent net injection of 12,672 billion yuan indicates a continued loose monetary policy, which is expected to support technology innovation and consumption [24] - The profit data from industrial enterprises shows a decline, suggesting potential for more proactive policies to stimulate domestic demand [25] - Convertible bonds are noted for their dual characteristics of debt and equity, maintaining value but with caution advised regarding volatility risks [26] Key Focus Products - Recommended funds include Nord Short Bond A (005350) and Anxin New Value A (003026), which are positioned to benefit from current market conditions [29]

Core Viewpoint - The financial sector showed mixed performance on June 30, with Hongye Futures achieving a five-day consecutive rise, while other stocks like Guosheng Financial Holdings and Nanhua Futures experienced significant declines [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Hongye Futures reported a closing price of 15.98 yuan, with a rise of 9.98% and a turnover rate of 39.68%, leading to a transaction volume of 2.036 billion yuan on June 30 [1][2] - Guosheng Financial Holdings and Nanhua Futures were among the stocks that saw notable declines, with Guosheng Financial Holdings showing a decrease of 0.77% [1][2] Group 2: Company Announcements - Hongye Futures issued an announcement on June 27 regarding abnormal stock price fluctuations, indicating that the cumulative price increase over two consecutive trading days exceeded 20% [3] - The company confirmed that there were no undisclosed significant matters affecting stock prices and that its operational status remained normal [4] Group 3: Company Background and Financial Performance - Hongye Futures, established in 1995 and fully owned by Jiangsu Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in December 2015 and on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in August 2022 [5] - The company's Q1 2025 report showed a revenue increase of 259.09% year-on-year to 643 million yuan, with a net profit turnaround to 1.2032 million yuan [6] - The company is monitoring developments in cross-border payment and financial technology sectors, with plans to assess opportunities related to stablecoin business in the future [6]

Group 1 - The overall market valuation has increased, with the ChiNext Index performing the best, while the dividend index showed the weakest performance [1][10] - The computer, defense, and non-bank financial sectors experienced the highest gains, while the oil, food and beverage, and transportation sectors performed the weakest [13][35] - The relative PE and PB of the ChiNext Index compared to the CSI 300 have both increased, indicating a shift in valuation dynamics [17][26] Group 2 - The overall valuation of broad market indices has risen, with the majority of indices above the 50% historical percentile [15][26] - The financial and real estate sectors are valued above the 50% historical percentile, while materials, equipment manufacturing, industrial services, transportation, consumption, and technology sectors are at or below the 50% level [28][39] - The valuation of the food and beverage, agriculture, public utilities, and home appliance sectors is currently considered relatively cheap [39][44] Group 3 - The overall profit expectations across industries have shown slight changes, with the largest upward adjustments and the computer sector experiencing the most significant downward revision [50]

Market Overview - The overall trading heat in the market has significantly increased, with a notable inflow of financing funds. The average daily trading volume in the A-share market rose from 1.2 trillion to 1.5 trillion, and the turnover rate of the Shanghai Composite Index increased to the 85th percentile [1] - The proportion of stocks that rose increased to 88.6%, with the median weekly return for all A-shares rising to 4.4% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - Public funds saw a decrease in new issuance scale to 15.904 billion, while private equity confidence index slightly declined with a small increase in positions [2] - Foreign capital experienced a net outflow of 370 million USD, with northbound trading volume dropping to 11.0% [2] - The net inflow of financing reached 25.6 billion, with the total margin balance rising to 1.8 trillion [2] Industry Allocation - In the non-bank financial sector, there was a clear divergence in fund flows, with financing funds flowing in while ETF funds flowed out. The computer sector saw a net inflow of 4.94 billion, while real estate experienced a net outflow of 240 million [3] - The banking and pharmaceutical sectors saw net inflows of 1.57 billion and 600 million respectively, while non-bank financials faced a net outflow of 4.03 billion [3] Hong Kong and Global Fund Flow - Southbound funds saw a net inflow of 28.4 billion, reaching the 96th percentile since 2022. The Hang Seng Index rose by 3.2% during this period [4] - Developed markets generally received net inflows of foreign capital, with the UK and Japan leading with inflows of 1.01 billion and 910 million respectively [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall increase on June 30, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3444.43 points, up 0.59%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10465.12 points, up 0.83%, and the ChiNext Index at 2153.01 points, up 1.35% [1] - The total trading volume for both markets was 14868.57 billion, a decrease of 542.44 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was nearly 4 billion, with an opening net outflow of 29.38 billion and a closing net inflow of 12.66 billion, resulting in a total net outflow of 39.95 billion for the day [2] - The CSI 300 index saw a net outflow of 26.76 billion, while the ChiNext experienced a net outflow of 8.66 billion [4] Sector Performance - The defense and military industry saw a net inflow of 66.05 billion, with a growth rate of 4.81%, led by stocks like Aviation Power [6] - Other sectors with significant net inflows included Media (45.81 billion), Biopharmaceuticals (22.36 billion), Power Equipment (18.99 billion), and Machinery Equipment (11.95 billion) [6] - Conversely, the non-bank financial sector experienced the largest net outflow of 51.39 billion, with a decline of 0.34%, followed by Transportation (-14.30 billion) and Banking (-13.08 billion) [6] Institutional Activity - Notable institutional buying included stocks such as Chengfei Integration (249.53 million), Xiongdi Technology (137.75 million), and Chenxi Aviation (115.45 million) [9] - The latest institutional focus included stocks like Dongfang Electronics, Sifang Co., and Kangyuan Pharmaceutical, all rated as "Buy" with significant upside potential [11]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.59% to close at 3444.43 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.83% to 10465.12 points. The Sci-Tech 50 Index saw a gain of 1.54%, closing at 1003.41 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.35% to 2153.01 points. Overall, 4054 stocks rose, 1126 fell, and 237 remained unchanged across the market [1]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 148.69 billion yuan, a decrease of 54.24 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, all sectors except for non-bank financials, banking, and transportation saw gains today. The leading sectors included defense and military industry, media, telecommunications, electronics, textile and apparel, and electric power equipment [1]. Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included military informationization, CRO, aircraft carriers, BC batteries, photolithography machines, large aircraft, military-civilian integration, the top ten military industrial groups, the AVIC system, commercial aerospace, general aviation, online gaming, rare earth permanent magnets, low-altitude economy, and photolithography factories [1].

Market Performance Review - In June, major stock indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.37%, and the ChiNext Index by 6.58% [13] - The financial and growth styles led the market, while the stable style declined by 0.36% [13] - The TMT and financial sectors showed significant gains, with the communication sector rising by 11.97% and non-bank financials by 8.84% [17] Market Sentiment Analysis - Since the market rally began on September 24, 2024, retail investor sentiment has played a dominant role, but this sentiment has declined since May 2025 [4][20] - The report suggests that retail sentiment will remain within a normal fluctuation range, and a rally driven by retail investors is not expected in the near term [4][20] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of waiting for the outcome of the US tariff negotiations, which will set the tone for July [5][27] - If the US does not reach an agreement with other countries, the A-share market may focus on internal fundamentals [5][27] - The recommendation is to hold dividend stocks while waiting for uncertainties to resolve, rather than making premature investments [6][28] - If the US reaches an agreement at the expense of Chinese interests, defensive dividend stocks will remain a preferred choice [6][28]

Market Overview - The overall trading activity in the market has significantly increased, with the average daily trading volume rising from 1.2 trillion to 1.5 trillion CNY[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index turnover rate has increased to the 85th percentile, while the STAR Market turnover rate has reached the 40th percentile[1] - The proportion of stocks rising has increased to 88.6%, with a median weekly return of 4.4%[3] Capital Flow Insights - Net inflow of southbound funds has risen to 28.4 billion CNY, marking a 96th percentile since 2022[3] - Foreign capital has seen a net outflow of 3.74 million USD from the A-share market[39] - Financing funds have net bought 25.6 billion CNY, with the total margin balance increasing to over 1.8 trillion CNY[3] Fund Issuance and Performance - The issuance scale of new equity funds has decreased to 15.9 billion CNY, down from 25.7 billion CNY[31] - The private equity confidence index has slightly declined, while the positions have marginally increased[37] - The average return of funds has shown a significant improvement, with most funds reporting positive returns year-to-date[33] Sector Performance - The trading concentration in certain sectors has increased, with seven industries having turnover rates above 90%, including comprehensive finance and defense[2] - The electronic and computer sectors have the highest average daily trading volumes, at 1829.61 billion CNY and 1684.80 billion CNY respectively[20] - Notable inflows in financing funds were observed in the computer sector (+4.94 billion CNY) and non-bank financials (+3.93 billion CNY), while real estate saw outflows (-0.24 billion CNY)[3] Risk Considerations - There are potential risks related to data collection methods and measurement errors, as well as biases from third-party data sources[3]

分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 证券研究报告 信用业务周报 近期科技金融为何强势反弹？ 2025年6月30日 中泰证券研究所 图表：市场表现回顾 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 2 【市场观察】如何看待科技金融强势反弹？ 3 • 一、如何看待科技金融强势反弹？ • 近期A股科技板块强势反弹，背后是宏观风险缓解与市场风险偏好修复的共振结果。一方面，中东局 势超市场预期平息，大幅缓解市场地缘政治担忧，原油价格显著回落，带动通胀预期下降，流动性环 境改善，全球权益资产价格上涨；另一方面，特朗普近期在外交政策上的表态，特别是在以伊问题上 的处理降低了市场对其潜在执政不确定性的担忧，而这一点正是一季度部分资本离开美国避险的主要 原因，故近期美元资产回流，美股强于欧股、黄金走弱、美债收益率回落，形成与一季度全球资产组 合相对的"反向组合"。美债收益率下行和纳斯达克指数走强，不仅从流动性角度为A股提供支撑，也通 过科技股估值和情绪的外溢效应利好A股科技板块。这一逻辑亦与我们此前提示 ...

沪指6月30日上涨0.59%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有28个，涨幅居前的行业为国防军工、传媒， 涨幅分别为4.35%、2.82%。跌幅居前的行业为非银金融、银行、交通运输，跌幅分别为0.77%、 0.34%、0.09%。非银金融行业位居今日跌幅榜首位。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出16.13亿元，今日有10个行业主力资金净流入，国防军工行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨4.35%，全天净流入资金33.15亿元，其次是传媒行业，日涨幅 为2.82%，净流入资金为14.41亿元。 | 601066 | 中信建投 | 0.08 | 0.16 | -355.47 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601878 | 浙商证券 | -0.27 | 0.86 | -336.25 | | 600053 | 九鼎投资 | -0.32 | 1.54 | -262.75 | | 002926 | 华西证券 | -1.65 | 2.13 | -176.06 | | 600599 | *ST熊猫 | 1.00 | 2.39 | -153.02 | | 000567 | 海德股份 ...