1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For stainless steel, with weak demand, high inventory, and a continuous downward shift in cost center, it is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Categories Nickel Market Analysis - On December 15, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 115,070 yuan/ton and closed at 114,690 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.88% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 129,996 (+29,560) lots, and the open interest was 105,210 (+252) lots. The price trend continued the recent weakness, showing a pattern of "rising and then falling, oscillating downward" under the triple pressure of supply - demand surplus, high inventory, and technical breakdown [1] - The nickel ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines mainly fulfilled previous orders, maintaining a price - holding attitude. Downstream factories' production plans remained unchanged, and their pressure on nickel ore purchase prices might ease. In Indonesia, the December (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price was expected to drop by 0.11 - 0.18 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium was + 25, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 26. The overall domestic trade price of nickel ore was expected to decline [1] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 120,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was fair, and the spot premiums and discounts of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 5,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 37,872 (+2,622) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,392 (+360) tons [2] Strategy - With high inventory and an unchanged oversupply situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [1][2][3] Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On December 15, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2602 opened at 12,560 yuan/ton and closed at 12,480 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 177,564 (+56,756) lots, and the open interest was 118,271 (-4,171) lots. The trend continued the recent weakness, showing a pattern of "rising and then falling, oscillating downward" under the pressure of supply - demand imbalance, high inventory, and export policy disturbances. In the short term, there was unlikely to be an obvious rebound, and it was expected to oscillate and consolidate in the range of 12,400 - 12,600 yuan/ton [3] - The futures market weakened, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, with purchases mainly on an as - needed basis. Inventory reduction slowed down. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,750 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,750 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B was 265 - 465 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 887.5 yuan/nickel point [3] Strategy - Due to weak demand, high inventory, and a continuous downward shift in the cost center, stainless steel is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Nickel is recommended as a short position and is expected to continue its downward trend. The trading strategies include testing the previous low for single - side trading and selling out - of - the - money call options at the resistance level. Stainless steel follows the nickel price, with prices in a low - level oscillation due to weak supply and demand and weak cost support [1][5][9] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory Nickel - Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level, reaching 314,000 tons, with an increase of 2,038 tons this week. LME inventory is 253,000 tons, a decrease of 264 tons this week, and SMM's six - region social inventory is 59,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,122 tons [11] Stainless Steel - Social inventory of stainless steel is higher than the same period in previous years [15] Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis Nickel - **Supply**: SMM statistics show that refined nickel production from January to November increased by 19% year - on - year to 361,300 tons. In November, pure nickel production decreased by 10,000 tons month - on - month to 25,800 tons, and it is expected to slightly rebound to 27,400 tons in December. From January to October 2025, net imports of domestic refined nickel were 47,200 tons, compared with net exports of 23,200 tons in the same period last year. In October, there was a net export, with Russian nickel imports only about 1,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the domestic refined nickel supply was 383,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 54% [23] - **Demand**: From January to November, pure nickel consumption increased by 3% year - on - year to 268,000 tons. Electroplating consumption declined seasonally, while alloy consumption increased slightly, and overall consumption slowed down. SMM's survey shows that the PMI of nickel downstream industries in November remained below 50. In December, the production schedules of stainless steel and ternary materials decreased significantly month - on - month, electroplating was still in the off - season, and alloy consumption alone was not enough to support demand, so pure nickel consumption continued to decline month - on - month [26] Stainless Steel - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: Nickel ore prices remained stable with a slight decline. In November 2025, Indonesia imported about 1.65 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, a month - on - month decrease of about 1.25 million tons (a decrease of 43.08%), and a year - on - year increase of about 1.15 million tons (an increase of 229.99%). In December, the domestic trade premium in Indonesia remained flat month - on - month, and the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in Indonesia continued to decline slightly, with a slight decrease in CIF transaction prices [28] - **NPI**: NPI was in a loss state, and there was a game between upstream and downstream. High - nickel iron prices continued to fall, and some production lines switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, resulting in a significant increase in high - grade nickel matte production in November [30][75] - **Chromium Series**: Chromium ore prices rebounded this week. Tsingshan Group's long - term procurement price for high - carbon ferrochromium in December 2025 was 8,395 yuan/50 - base tons (cash - inclusive ex - works price), a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan, and the Tianjin Port receiving price was 150 yuan lower per 50 - base tons. The spot price was 7,950 yuan/50 - base tons [42] - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: Cold - rolled costs were inverted. On December 12th, the estimated cold - rolled cash cost was around 12,950 yuan/ton, and the integrated cost reached 12,450 yuan/ton [44][46] - **Supply**: According to Steel Union's forecast, the combined stainless - steel crude steel output of China and India from January to November was 41.353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In December, the production schedules of China and India decreased significantly month - on - month, mainly in the 200 - series and 400 - series, while the 300 - series decreased by less than 20,000 tons month - on - month [54] - **Demand**: The ship - building industry had the highest growth rate and provided support. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of ship - building plate output from January to October reached 29%, while the growth rates in other terminal fields were not optimistic [56] New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In November, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 1.522 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 6.5%, with a penetration rate of 53.2%. From January to November, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 12.466 million, a year - on - year increase of 23.2%. According to the Passenger Car Association, from December 1st to 7th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 185,000, a year - on - year decrease of 17% and a month - on - month decrease of 10%, with a retail penetration rate of 62.2%. The production of power cells followed the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 42.4% to 111.42 GWh from January to November, and a projected month - on - month decrease of 2% in December [62] - **Overseas Market**: According to CleanTechnica statistics, from January to October 2025, the cumulative global new energy vehicle sales increased by 21.7% year - on - year to 16.39 million, compared with a 25.5% year - on - year increase in the same period last year. In the same period, European new energy vehicle sales increased by 29.4% year - on - year to 3.092 million, and US new energy vehicle sales increased by 6.8% year - on - year to 1.323 million. The US cancelled the IRA new energy vehicle subsidy on October 1st, leading to a small peak in sales in advance. Most European countries still provided subsidies for new energy vehicles and had carbon - emission requirements, which stimulated sales growth this year. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2025, China's total new energy vehicle exports were 2.283 million, a year - on - year increase of 100% [68] Nickel Sulfate Market - **Production**: From January to November, China's nickel sulfate production decreased by 6.9% year - on - year to 319,000 tons, and the production of ternary precursors decreased by 16% year - on - year to 648,000 tons, while the production of ternary cathode materials increased by 17% year - on - year to 737,000 tons. After December, entering the off - season, the demand for nickel sulfate may slow down [70] - **Raw Materials**: From January to November, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 45% year - on - year to 4.05 million tons, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 25% year - on - year to 1.89 million tons. The price of sulfur increased significantly this year, raising the cost of hydrometallurgy and the cost of MHP, while the price of MHP remained firm. The good demand for nickel sulfate boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated the recovery of production. Due to the continuous decline in NPI prices, some production lines switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, resulting in a significant increase in high - grade nickel matte production in November [75] Pure Nickel - The significant reduction in pure nickel production narrowed the domestic surplus [76]

2025年12月14日 | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 2 | | 工业硅：新疆环保消息发酵，关注实际减产 | 11 | | 多晶硅：预计盘面高位震荡态势 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：基本面新增驱动有限，高位宽幅震荡 | 20 | 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 14 日 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：预计镍价低位震荡运行。精炼镍边际转向供需双弱格局，耐蚀合金需求承压，前期重心 下移挤压精炼镍利润，不少企业转向硫酸镍生产，精炼镍累库斜率稍有趋缓，这也将精炼镍过剩的压力进 行结构性转向，硫酸镍与盘面溢价回归收敛。不过，总量过剩矛盾与湿法投产预期或仍然拖累镍价。远端 低成本湿法路径供应增加的预期未改，即中间 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is expected to trade in a low - range oscillation. The structural shift in surplus and potential risks from Indonesia's policies should be noted. Stainless steel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks [4][5]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's inventory continues to accumulate. It is recommended to short on price increases, with the next - week's price range expected to be between 8,000 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the next - week's price range estimated to be between 55,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [32][33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market lacks new driving forces, and the high - level oscillation is expected to continue. The price of the futures main contract is expected to be in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [58][59]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is waiting for Malaysia's December production reduction to confirm the price bottom. It is recommended to operate with a light position. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate in a range, waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector [91][93]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal is expected to oscillate at a low level, and soybean No.1 is expected to trade within a range. The prices of both are expected to oscillate next week [104][108]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The supply - demand mismatch has been marginally alleviated, and the near - end of the futures market remains relatively strong [122][127]. - **Sugar**: The international market is in a weak - expectation pattern and is expected to be sorted out at a low level. The domestic market is expected to operate weakly [148][150]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level narrow - range oscillation. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upside space may be limited [176][193]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and the LH2601 contract in the futures market may face pressure [195][198]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the acquisition strategies of large oil mills [210][211]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Nickel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with the surplus pressure structurally shifted. Stainless steel has a weak supply - demand situation, with a slight surplus and limited upside space for prices [4][5]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,729 tons to 56,707 tons this week, while LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 253,032 tons. Stainless steel inventories also showed certain changes [6]. - **Market News**: There are various news events, such as Indonesia's policy adjustments, production restrictions in some projects, and changes in the Fed's interest - rate expectations [9][10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon's futures price first declined and then rose, with the spot price falling. Polysilicon's futures price opened low and closed high, with the spot price stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's supply has a certain increase in some regions but a decrease in the southwest. The demand is weak. Polysilicon's supply has a slight decrease in the short - term, and the demand has a certain change in silicon wafer production [29][30]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social and factory inventories have increased, and polysilicon's factory inventory has also increased [29][30]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: Futures and spot prices have increased, and the basis has changed [56]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply has a certain change in overseas shipments and domestic production, and the demand has a decline in downstream procurement willingness. The inventory is decreasing, but the rate has slowed down [57]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Views**: Palm oil rebounded after the MPOB report, but the high - inventory situation restricted the upside. Soybean oil lacked upward driving forces and oscillated within a range [90]. - **This Week's Views**: Palm oil's high production and low demand have pushed up Malaysia's December inventory. It needs to confirm the production reduction in December to find the price bottom. Soybean oil is affected by the slow sales progress of US soybeans and is expected to oscillate [91][93]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Market**: US soybean prices declined, and domestic soybean meal prices first fell and then rose, while soybean No.1 prices were relatively strong [104]. - **Next - Week's Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate, with soybean meal affected by US soybean prices and China's procurement, and soybean No.1 affected by spot prices and market news [104][108]. Corn - **Market Review**: Spot prices slightly declined, and futures prices first declined and then rebounded. The basis has strengthened [122][123]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices declined, wheat prices fell, and the import corn auction restarted. Corn starch inventory decreased, and attention should be paid to the spot market [124][127]. Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: International sugar prices increased slightly, and domestic sugar prices declined. The net long position of funds increased slightly [148][149]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: The international market is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and the domestic market is expected to operate weakly [150]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton is in a low - level narrow - range oscillation, and domestic cotton futures and spot prices are slightly stronger. The basis is relatively strong, and the increase in cotton warehouse receipts restricts the upside [176]. - **International and Domestic Fundamentals**: International cotton has various changes in production, consumption, and exports in different countries. Domestic cotton has a certain increase in prices, and the downstream situation is slightly worse [180][188]. Hogs - **This Week's Market Review**: Spot prices oscillated and adjusted, and futures prices were slightly stronger in oscillation. The basis has changed [195][196]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and futures prices may face pressure [197][198]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices oscillated [210]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price has regional differentiation, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties [211].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Due to high inventory and an unchanged supply surplus pattern, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For stainless steel, with low demand, high inventory, and a continuously declining cost center, it is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3][4] Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On December 11, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 116,970 yuan/ton and closed at 115,870 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.91% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 106,815 (-13,204) lots, and the open interest was 106,302 (+3,719) lots. The contract showed a pattern of opening high, then moving low, and closing weakly, in an overall weakly oscillating pattern, affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand and macro - economics [1] Fundamental - The current pattern of nickel supply surplus remains unchanged. Although refined nickel inventory has decreased slightly, the production of primary nickel in December increased month - on - month, and the reduction in refined nickel production in November was lower than expected, having a limited marginal impact on the market supply - demand balance sheet [1] Macro - The Fed cut interest rates in December, but subsequent statements were hawkish, and the previous positive factors have basically been reflected in the market [1] Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market was calm, with prices stable. Philippine mines mainly fulfilled previous orders, and their price - holding mentality recovered. As downstream ferronickel prices rebounded and domestic factories needed to stock up before the Spring Festival, the mentality of pressing down prices for nickel ore purchases may ease. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December is expected to drop by 0.11 - 0.18 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26. The overall domestic trade price of nickel ore is expected to decline [2] Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 121,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market showed no obvious improvement, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 5,100 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 33,939 (-296) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 252,852 (-240) tons [2] Group 4: Nickel Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Group 5: Stainless Steel Market Analysis Futures - On December 11, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2602 opened at 12,550 yuan/ton and closed at 12,625 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 83,489 (+3,558) lots, and the open interest was 103,523 (-4,171) lots. After the contract changed to 2602, it continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing a narrow - range weakly oscillating pattern and closing slightly lower. Technically, the price closed below the 5 - day moving average, remaining in a short - term weak pattern, but there was strong support around 12,400 yuan/ton [3] Spot - Downstream buyers remained cautious, and trading did not improve. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,800 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 12,800 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 195 - 395 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 888.5 yuan/nickel point [3] Group 6: Stainless Steel Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 12, 2025 - Report Issuer: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: There is a transformation in structural surplus, but the game contradictions remain unchanged [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand continue to operate weakly, and the cost - support logic is strengthened [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: With continuous inventory reduction and uncertain resumption of production of large factories, it will fluctuate at a high level [2][9] - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the weather conditions in Xinjiang [2][12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures market will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [2][12] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel main contract was 115,870 yuan, down 1,220 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel main contract was 12,500 yuan, down 55 yuan. The import profit of nickel plate was - 973 yuan, up 425 yuan from the previous day [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons per month. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies [4][5] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 96,980 yuan, up 2,900 yuan from the previous day. The spot - 2601 was - 3,480 yuan, up - 2,100 yuan from the previous day [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 93,559 yuan/ton, up 932 yuan/ton from the previous working day. This week, the lithium carbonate output was 21,998 tons, an increase of 59 tons from last week, and the industry inventory was 111,469 tons, a decrease of 2,133 tons from last week [10] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 0 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2601 closing price was 8,285 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan from the previous day; the PS2605 closing price was 55,765 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan from the previous day. The industrial silicon - social inventory was 56.1 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons compared to a week ago [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Central Economic Work Conference determined the key tasks for next year's economic work, including promoting reform, building a unified national market, and deepening the reform of state - owned enterprises [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, polysilicon trend intensity is 1 [13]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-11 美联储利息决议公布在即，镍不锈钢震荡运行 镍品种 市场分析 2025-12-10日沪镍主力合约2601开于117620元/吨，收于117090元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.56%，当日成交量 为120019（+17609）手，持仓量为102583（-5403）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约震荡下行，延续近期弱势格局，整体呈现高位承压、逐级下行的态势，成交量较前 日略有放大。主要受供需过剩、下游需求疲软和美联储决议前谨慎情绪影响，预计将继续在11.4-12万元/吨区间弱 势震荡。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场维持平静，但未有成交落地，镍矿价格企稳运行。菲律宾方面，矿山多履 行前期订单出货为主。矿山多挺价心态。下游镍铁价格回暖，国内工厂多需年前备库，对原料镍矿采购压价心态 或将放缓。印尼方面，12月(一期)内贸基准价走跌0.52-0.91美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，主流升水去至+25，升水区 间多在+25-26。整体镍矿内贸价格有所下跌。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格121700元/吨，较上一个交易日下跌1,100元/吨。现货交投尚可，各品牌 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core Views - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and there were differences within the committee. The US faces challenges of rising prices and a cooling labor market. The market shows different trends for various commodities, with some in a state of shock, some with potential for short - term rebound, and others facing supply - demand imbalances [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals Gold and Silver - Gold prices were affected by the Fed's interest rate cut. Silver reached a new high, breaking through 60. The market showed certain price fluctuations and trading volume changes [14][18]. Copper - The decline of the US dollar supported copper prices. There were some impacts on supply from mining companies, and China's copper imports increased year - on - year [22][24]. Zinc - Zinc prices fell from a high level, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory [25]. Lead - The reduction in inventory limited the decline of lead prices [28]. Tin - There were disturbances in tin supply [31]. Aluminum, Alumina and Casting Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum prices continued to fluctuate, alumina had a slight rebound, and casting aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum [34]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum faced obvious pressure at the upper level, while palladium fluctuated upward [39][41]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The structural surplus of nickel changed, but the game contradictions remained unchanged. The supply and demand of stainless steel continued to be weak, and the cost - support logic was strengthened [43]. Lithium Carbonate - The news of large - scale production resumption was repeated, and the price was in a high - level shock [48]. 3.2 Industrial Minerals Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, the price was affected by factors such as inventory and cost. The details of the equity of the polysilicon platform company were announced, and the market suggested buying on dips [51][53]. Iron Ore - The downstream demand space of iron ore was limited, and the valuation was high [54]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Affected by the sentiment of the real estate sector, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices were in a low - level shock [57][60]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Both ferrosilicon and manganese silicon were in a wide - range shock [62]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke and coking coal prices were in a wide - range shock [65]. Logs - Log prices were in a low - level shock [69]. 3.3 Chemicals Paraxylene (PX), Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) and Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) - PX was in a high - level shock market with cost support. PTA had cost support and was suitable for positive spread trading. MEG's device production cut scale expanded, and the downward space was limited [73][81]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber was in a shock operation, and synthetic rubber was in a range operation [84][87]. Asphalt - Due to geopolitical factors, asphalt had a phased slight rebound [91]. Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) and Polypropylene (PP) - LLDPE prices fell unilaterally, and the basis weakened again. PP faced upstream selling pressure, and the price difference between powder and granular materials was inverted [103][105]. Caustic Soda - It was not advisable to chase short positions in caustic soda, as it faced high - production and high - inventory situations [108][109]. Pulp - Pulp prices were in a shock - upward trend. Although there was no significant change in the supply - demand fundamentals, the market was affected by factors such as low - valuation capital speculation [9][114]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets was stable, but the market faced problems of weak demand and high inventory [117][118]. Methanol - Methanol prices were under pressure. In the short term, it was in a weak operation, and in the medium - term, the high - supply pressure was the main contradiction [120][123]. Urea - Urea prices were in a shock operation. The demand side improved stage by stage, and the price was supported by the reduction of inventory, but there was also policy pressure [125][128]. Styrene - Styrene was in a short - term shock. The pure benzene market was in a bottom - shock state, and the supply pressure of styrene was not large [129][130]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changed little, with stable prices and weak downstream demand [132]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Propylene - LPG prices had wide - range fluctuations affected by cost factors. Propylene supply had an incremental expectation, and the upward driving force was limited [135][136]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - PVC prices were in a low - level shock. The high - production and high - inventory structure was difficult to change in the short term [144][145]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the center of the low - sulfur fuel oil market shifted downward at night [147]. 3.4 Shipping - The PA alliance's performance exceeded expectations, driving the sentiment of the container freight index (European line) to improve. The 2602 contract was in a shock market in the medium - term, and it was advisable to short the 2604 contract on rallies [149][161]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Both short fiber and bottle chip faced medium - term pressure, and it was advisable to short the processing margin on rallies [163][164]. Offset Printing Paper - It was advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper, with stable prices and weak market demand [166][167]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene was in a short - term shock, with inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand in the short term, but the supply was expected to shrink in the future [171][172]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm oil was expected to have a short - term rebound after the release of negative factors. Soybean oil fluctuated mainly due to insufficient driving force from US soybeans [174][179]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Soybean meal might follow the rebound of US soybeans. Soybean prices were in a shock [180][183]. Corn - Corn prices were in a shock operation, with price changes in different regions [184][185]. Sugar - Sugar prices were in a low - level shock, with different production and consumption situations in domestic and international markets [190][193]. Cotton - Cotton prices were in a shock - upward trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [195][197]. Eggs - Egg spot prices were in a shock [199]. Hogs - The market had already priced in the Winter Solstice expectation in advance, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [201][202]. Peanuts - Attention should be paid to the peanut spot market, with stable prices in most regions and small - scale price fluctuations in some areas [205][206].

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has imposed fines on mining companies operating illegally in forest areas as part of efforts to protect forests from illegal logging [1] Group 1: Fines Imposed - Nickel miners found illegally logging forests will face fines of 6.5 billion Indonesian Rupiah per hectare [1] - Bauxite miners will incur fines of 1.76 billion Indonesian Rupiah per hectare [1] - Tin miners will be fined 1.25 billion Indonesian Rupiah per hectare [1] - Coal operators will face fines of 354 million Indonesian Rupiah per hectare [1] Group 2: Enforcement and Compliance - A government forestry task force, composed of military personnel and law enforcement officials, will collect fines based on investigation results [1] - Earlier this week, the task force ordered dozens of palm oil plantation and mining companies to pay a total of 38.62 trillion Indonesian Rupiah in fines for illegal operations in forest areas [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventories and a persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel market, with weak demand, high inventories, and a continuous decline in the cost center, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in low - level oscillations [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 9, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 118,040 yuan/ton and closed at 117,350 yuan/ton, a - 0.58% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 102,410 (- 22,103) lots, and the open interest was 107,986 (- 3,599) lots. The price oscillated around the 20 - day moving average and is likely to fluctuate between 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton in the short term, with the breakthrough direction depending on the Fed's policy decisions [1] - **Nickel Ore**: There were occasional inquiries in the nickel ore market but no transactions. The price of nickel ore stabilized. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders. In Indonesia, the December (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the overall domestic trade price of nickel ore decreased [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 34,361 (- 139) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 252,528 (- 816) tons [2] Strategy - The strategy for nickel is to mainly conduct range operations for the single - side trading, while there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 9, 2025, the main contract of stainless - steel 2601 opened at 12,510 yuan/ton and closed at 12,500 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 69,080 (- 32,560) lots, and the open interest was 78,164 (- 4,171) lots. It followed the Shanghai nickel trend, with an oscillating downward trend and shrinking trading volume. In the short term, it is likely to fluctuate between 12,400 - 12,600 yuan/ton, and the breakthrough direction depends on the Fed's policy decisions [3] - **Spot**: With the weakening of the futures market, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, and they mainly purchased on - demand. Inventory depletion slowed down. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,800 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 12,800 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 320 - 520 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 886.5 yuan/nickel point [3] Strategy - The single - side strategy for stainless - steel is neutral, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]