7 月以来，国际黄金市场上演剧烈震荡。中国人民银行最新数据显示，截至 6 月末我国黄金储备连续第 8 个月增持，总量达 7390 万盎司，而伦敦 金现上半年累计涨幅却高达 25.84%，但 4 月中下旬后从 3500 美元 / 盎司的历史高位回落至 3300 美元附近。这种 "央行囤金" 与 "市场回调" 的背 离，折射出美联储加息预期下的复杂博弈。 一、美联储政策转向：黄金市场的 "晴雨表" 6 月 18 日和讯网分析指出，美联储加息会推高美元资产收益率，导致黄金作为无息资产的吸引力下降。这一逻辑在 2025 年二季度得到验证：随 着美联储暗示可能延续加息路径，黄金市场出现明显资金外流。然而这种影响并非单向 —— 当市场担忧加息无法抑制通胀时，黄金的抗通胀属性 又会重新凸显。当前金银比高达 91:1，显著偏离 40-70:1 的历史均值，这种极端分化往往预示着白银等贵金属的补涨机会。 从数据层面看，7 月 15 日国内实物黄金价格普遍突破 1000 元 / 克关口，周生生品牌金价达 1012 元 / 克，单日涨幅 0.2%。这种 "高金价" 现象既 反映市场对地缘风险的定价，也暗含投资者对美联储三季度降息的 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 15 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国总统推出更多关税措施特别是对欧盟和加拿大对等关税税率定于 30%， 关税武器化程度加剧提振黄金的避险需求，但美元指数走强对贵金属有抑制作用， 伦敦黄金小幅上行至 3370 美元/盎司附近；7 月中旬以来投机资金再次拉升白银 至 39 美元/盎司上方，目前伦敦金银比值已经回落到 86，年内白银涨幅 35%远超 黄金的 28%，但上海白银相对滞涨。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局重组进入 乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has shown a significant dulling in its reaction to negative news, with trading volume and sentiment remaining strong. The "asset shortage" and "national team" support have increased the willingness to allocate to equity assets, while "anti - involution" and real estate policy expectations have boosted market sentiment. However, due to the lack of substantial positive factors at home and abroad and the reduced discount advantage of stock index futures, it is advisable to be cautious about chasing the rise in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.42%, up 8.13bp; DR007 at 1.54%, up 6.42bp; GC001 at 1.49%, up 14.00bp; GC007 at 1.56%, up 5.50bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.56%, up 0.40bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury at 1.37%, unchanged; 5 - year treasury at 1.52%, up 0.25bp; 10 - year treasury at 1.67%, unchanged; 10 - year US treasury at 4.43%, up 8.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 2262 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 1065 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net daily injection was 1197 billion yuan. This week, 4257 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 1000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on July 15 [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - **Stock Index Futures**: IF volume was 80048, down 51.0; IF open interest was 263468, down 6.8; IH volume was 41336, down 54.4; IH open interest was down 13.2; IC volume was 66406, down 46.3; IC open interest was 227301, down 6.1; IM volume was 132782, down 50.4; IM open interest was 326601, down 8.0. The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods are also provided [5][8]. - **Stock Index Spot**: The CSI 300 rose 0.07% to 4017.7; the SSE 50 rose 0.04% to 2757.8; the CSI 500 fell 0.1% to 6020.9; the CSI 1000 rose 0.02% to 6462.3. The trading volume of the two markets was 14588 billion yuan, a decrease of 2534 billion yuan from last Friday. Industry sectors were mostly up, with precious metals, energy metals, etc. leading the gains, and diversified finance, gaming, etc. leading the losses [6]. 3.3 Export Data - China's exports in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year in US dollars, up from 4.8% in the previous period. During the Sino - US "reciprocal tariff" suspension period in June, Sino - US foreign trade recovered significantly, with exports to the US improving by 32.44% month - on - month to 381.7 billion US dollars, and the proportion in total exports rising from 9.12% in May to 11.74%. Exports to Africa also had a good performance. However, with the implementation of reciprocal tariff measures in August, Sino - US trade may face challenges [6].

1. Report Summary - The report provides a morning briefing on metal option strategies, covering various metal options including non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals. It includes market overviews, option factor analyses, and strategy recommendations for each metal option [2]. 2. Core Views - For non - ferrous metals, which are in a state of shock and decline, a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended; black metals are in a range - bound consolidation phase, suitable for constructing a seller's option neutral combination strategy; precious metals like gold are in a high - level consolidation with a weak decline, suggesting a spot hedging strategy [2]. 3. Specific Summaries by Category 3.1 Market Overview of Underlying Futures - The report details the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2508) is 78,020, with a decline of 270 and a decline rate of 0.34% [3]. 3.2 Option Factor Analysis 3.2.1 Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of each metal option are presented, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For instance, the open interest PCR of copper options is 0.60, with a change of - 0.01 [4]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of each metal option are analyzed from the perspective of the exercise prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of copper is 82,000, and the support level is 78,000 [5]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The report shows the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, annual average, call and put implied volatilities, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities of each metal option. For example, the weighted implied volatility of copper is 17.19%, with a change of - 0.35% [6]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations 3.3.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper Options**: Based on fundamental and market analysis, the strategy includes constructing a short - volatility seller's option combination strategy and a spot long - position hedging strategy [8]. - **Aluminum/Alumina Options**: Recommendations are a call option bull spread strategy, a short - position call + put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc/Lead Options**: A short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy are suggested [9]. - **Nickel Options**: A short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - position hedging strategy are recommended [10]. - **Tin Options**: A short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy are proposed [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate Options**: A short - bullish call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - position covered call strategy are recommended [11]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver Options**: A short - bullish short - volatility option seller's combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy are suggested [12]. 3.3.3 Black Metals - **Rebar Options**: A short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - position covered call strategy are recommended [13]. - **Iron Ore Options**: A short - bullish call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - position collar strategy are suggested [13]. - **Ferroalloy Options**: A short - volatility strategy for manganese silicon options is proposed, and for industrial silicon/polysilicon options, a call option bull spread strategy, a short - bullish call + put option combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [14]. - **Glass Options**: A short - volatility short - call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - position collar strategy are recommended [15].

深化"体育+贵金属"模式。作为十五运会3家贵金属特许运营商中的唯一国有企业，公司已获批包括金章、金钞等28款特许产品方案。公司应"十五运"组 委会邀请参加了第二十一届中国文博会，集中展示了陕西黄金"十五运"贵金属特许商品，借国家级赛事提升品牌影响力。公司还积极整合品牌资源，初 步搭建了品牌数字资产库框架，为品牌长效运营注入了科技动能。 文化赋能产品附加值显著提升。公司携手西安碑林博物馆，推出以"昭陵六骏"为原型的贵金属文创产品"六骏腾辉"，将长安历史文化与贵金属工艺深度 融合，推动地域文化价值向全国市场辐射，实现了"文化+品牌"双驱动。同时，公司对"秦之金"产品进行了升级，推出的"高浮雕工艺金条系列产品"已在 长安银行全面上线销售。 展望下半年，陕西营销公司将围绕新产品销售，推出贴合市场需求的贵金属产品，进一步开拓贵金属终端零售市场，扩大销售网络，开发更多客户，奋 力实现全年目标任务。 今年上半年，陕西营销公司营业收入完成年度目标的56.56%，利润完成年度目标的50%，顺利实现"双过半"，为实现"全年胜"打下坚实基础。 （刘文婷） 贵金属销售业务稳步增长。公司持续加大贵金属终端零售市场开拓力度，截至目前，已 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by Trump's tariff policies, but the market's sensitivity to it has decreased. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, and A - shares have high investment value in the medium and long term [3][9]. - Glass and soda ash are in the cycle of inventory digestion. The supply adjustment is deepening, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand digestion process [2][15]. - The prices of gold and silver may continue to be strong, but there are risks of Trump's threats being realized. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range, and zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations [17][19][20]. - The prices of crude oil, methanol, and other energy - chemical products are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand, and policies, with different trends [11][12]. - The prices of iron ore, steel, and other black commodities are expected to be strong in the short term, and the prices of coal and coke are affected by policies and demand [22][23][24]. - The prices of bean and rapeseed meal and oils are expected to be in a volatile pattern, and the price of shipping on the European container line is affected by market expectations [25][26][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key News - **International News**: The US regulatory authorities issued a blue - book on cryptocurrency custody. Trump will discuss tariffs with other countries and has announced new tariff policies [1][5]. - **Domestic News**: In the first half of 2025, China's foreign trade volume increased steadily, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports decreasing by 2.7%. The financial data in June were better than expected [6][7]. 3.2 Performance of External Markets - The S&P 500, T STOXX50, and other indices had different degrees of increase or decrease on July 14 compared with July 11. For example, the S&P 500 rose by 0.14%, and ICE Brent crude oil fell by 2.11% [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices rose, and the stock index fluctuated slightly. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to increase, and A - shares have high investment value [3][9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond prices fluctuated greatly. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the market risk preference has increased [10]. - **Energy - Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell at night. Trump's tariff policies and OPEC's production - increase plan have increased the uncertainty of oil prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The inventory of coastal methanol increased, and the short - term trend was slightly bullish [12]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins were in a consolidation phase. The cost support weakened, and attention should be paid to the supply contraction during the summer equipment maintenance [14]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded. The supply adjustment was deepening, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand digestion process [2][15]. - **Rubber**: The price of natural rubber was affected by climate and supply - demand. The short - term upward space was limited, and there might be a callback [16]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: The prices of gold and silver rose and then fell. The short - term trend was affected by Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price fell at night. The copper price might fluctuate within a range under the influence of multiple factors [18][19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell at night. The short - term zinc price might have wide - range fluctuations [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate decreased weekly, and the demand increased slightly. The overall market was in a volatile pattern [4][21]. - **Black Commodities** - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was expected to be strong in the short term. The demand was supported, and the supply might increase in the second half of the year [22]. - **Steel**: The steel price was expected to be strong in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the cost was rising [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by policies and demand. The supply pressure still existed [24]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: The prices of bean and rapeseed meal were in a strong - side volatile pattern. The US soybean production and demand data were adjusted, and the final inventory increased [25]. - **Oils**: The prices of oils were in a strong - side volatile pattern. The demand for palm oil was strong, and the overall market was in a volatile pattern [26]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The price of shipping on the European container line was in a volatile pattern. The market was still gambling on the peak - season price space, and attention should be paid to the release of August shipping prices [27].

行情回顾： 国际黄金周一（7月14日）冲高回落震荡收跌，开盘价3362.97美元/盎司，最高价3374.98美元/盎司，最低价 3340.96美元/盎司，收盘价3345.07美元/盎司。 消息面： 美联储主席鲍威尔：（就参议院银行委员会主席斯科特和参议员沃伦关于大楼翻新事宜）监察长已全面掌握项 目相关信息，并收到了月度报告；已要求监察长重新审查该项目。 贸易局势： 欧盟委员会负责贸易和经济安全等事务的委员谢夫乔维奇14日表示，如果美欧贸易谈判失败，欧盟准备对价值 720亿欧元（约合840亿美元）的美国进口商品征收额外反制关税。就在欧盟与美国努力达成贸易协议之际，美 国总统特朗普12日宣布，自8月1日起将对欧盟的进口商品征收30%的关税。欧盟成员国部长于14日在布鲁塞尔 召开会议，讨论如何回应特朗普最新表态，并准备反制措施。 地缘局势： 特朗普表示，美国将向乌克兰运送更多武器。这一表态显示出，随着俄罗斯无视他提出的停火要求并加大军事 行动力度，他的耐心正日益耗尽。特朗普称：我们不会直接采购武器，而是会自主生产，且相关费用将由他们 承担，美国将运送"最先进的武器。"特朗普并未说明将向乌克兰提供何种武器，只提到这些 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 14, the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed trends. IF fell 0.29%, IH fell 0.46%, IC fell 0.3%, and IM fell 0.2% [1]. - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 83,463 lots, 49,239 lots, 57,299 lots, and 134,671 lots respectively. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 19,160 lots, 14,582 lots, 14,672 lots, and 28,320 lots respectively [1][2]. - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The central bank's data shows that the effect of monetary policy in supporting the real economy is obvious [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF2507, IF2508, IF2509, and IF2512 were 4009, 3995.4, 3985.8, and 3955.2 respectively, with declines of 0.29%, 0.30%, 0.33%, and 0.41%. The trading volumes decreased by 25,073 lots, 2028 lots, 47,192 lots, and 9170 lots respectively, and the positions changed by - 12,573 lots, + 2405 lots, - 8205 lots, and - 787 lots respectively [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH2507, IH2508, IH2509, and IH2512 were 2751.8, 2748.6, 2747.4, and 2750 respectively, with declines of 0.46%, 0.53%, 0.50%, and 0.48%. The trading volumes decreased by 13,916 lots, 1026 lots, 30,394 lots, and 3903 lots respectively, and the positions changed by - 6696 lots, + 221 lots, - 7554 lots, and - 553 lots respectively [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC2507, IC2508, IC2509, and IC2512 were 6008.4, 5951.4, 5897.6, and 5774.6 respectively, with declines of 0.30%, 0.36%, 0.39%, and 0.43%. The trading volumes decreased by 20,355 lots, 1770 lots, 25,404 lots, and 9770 lots respectively, and the positions changed by - 13,063 lots, + 3845 lots, - 4713 lots, and - 741 lots respectively [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM2507, IM2508, IM2509, and IM2512 were 6442.2, 6373.4, 6302.2, and 6120.8 respectively, with declines of 0.20%, 0.29%, 0.30%, and 0.28%. The trading volumes decreased by 31,955 lots, 6153 lots, 75,947 lots, and 20,616 lots respectively, and the positions changed by - 14,229 lots, + 6035 lots, - 13,493 lots, and - 3322 lots respectively [1]. 3.2. Positions of the Top 20 Members - For IF contracts, in IF2507, long - orders decreased by 9620 lots with a net change of - 14,538 lots, and short - orders decreased by 10,048 lots with a net change of - 15,421 lots [5]. - For IH contracts, in IH2507, long - orders decreased by 5448 lots with a net change of - 12,265 lots, and short - orders decreased by 6088 lots with a net change of - 12,841 lots [5]. - For IC contracts, in IC2507, long - orders decreased by 9785 lots with a net change of - 11,634 lots, and short - orders decreased by 10,069 lots [5]. - For IM contracts, in IM2507, long - orders decreased by 10,792 lots with a net change of - 20,778 lots, and short - orders decreased by 10,998 lots with a net change of - 19,506 lots [5]. 3.3. Important Drivers - In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan, and the incremental social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The central bank said the effect of monetary policy in supporting the real economy was obvious [6]. - The central bank's deputy governor said that the monetary policy is moderately loose, and the policy state is supportive with accumulated effects. Since 2020, the central bank has cut the reserve requirement ratio 12 times and the policy interest rate 9 times [7]. 3.4. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.45%. A - share trading volume was 1.48 trillion yuan, down from 1.74 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. - The U.S. three major stock indexes rose slightly. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 500 rose 0.14%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.27%. The Nasdaq set a new closing record [8].

Group 1: Humanoid Robot Industry - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing rapid growth, driven by significant orders and technological advancements [6] - Major contracts have been awarded, such as a 124 million yuan procurement order from China Mobile to Zhiyuan Robotics and Yushu Technology [6] - Key areas of focus include sensors, dexterous hands, and exoskeleton robots, with recommendations from CITIC Securities [6] Group 2: AI and Computing Infrastructure - Meta has announced a multi-billion dollar investment in AI data center clusters, including the "Prometheus" project [2] - Amazon has launched the AI programming agent Kiro to optimize development processes [3] - The demand for AI data centers is boosting nuclear power stocks, with NuScale Power seeing a 12.38% increase in a single day [3] Group 3: Precious Metals - Silver prices have surged, with spot silver exceeding $39 per ounce, marking a 35% increase year-to-date, outperforming gold [7] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and improved monetary policy cycles between China and the U.S. are driving demand for precious metals [7] - Chinese silver stocks, such as China Silver Group, have seen significant gains, with a 14.29% increase [8] Group 4: Innovative Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology - The National Medical Insurance Administration in China is adjusting the innovative drug catalog, supporting the entire development chain [8] - Hong Kong's innovative drug stocks have surged, with companies like Boan Biotechnology rising by 22.31% [13] - A-share companies in the pharmaceutical sector, such as Lianhuan Pharmaceutical and Laimei Pharmaceutical, are also experiencing upward momentum [13] Group 5: Stablecoins and Cryptocurrencies - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation took effect on August 1, with discussions on cryptocurrency trends by the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [13] - The U.S. Congress is advancing stablecoin legislation, contributing to Bitcoin reaching a historical high [13] - Stocks related to oil and gas equipment are supported by geopolitical factors and summer oil demand, with Baijin Oil Services rising by 18.75% [13] Group 6: Energy and Power Transition - Extreme weather conditions are increasing demand for air conditioning, leading to a surge in the power sector, with companies like Jiantou Energy and Yunnan Energy hitting their daily limits [9] - The cement industry is undergoing transformation with production control and efficiency improvements, as seen in companies like Ta Pai Group and Ningxia Building Materials [10] Group 7: Consumer Electronics and Globalization - Companies like Lens Technology and Luxshare Precision are listing in Hong Kong to enhance overseas capacity and local service [11] - The current market environment suggests prioritizing investments in the commercialization of robots, AI infrastructure, precious metals, and the realization of innovative drug policies [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic export and financial data are better than expected, boosting the sentiment of the domestic market. However, short - term external risks need to be noted. The domestic risk preference continues to rise, and the short - term optimistic sentiment persists [2][3]. - The short - term trends of various assets are as follows: The stock index fluctuates strongly in the short term; treasury bonds fluctuate at a high level; among commodity sectors, black metals rebound from a low level, non - ferrous metals fluctuate, energy and chemicals fluctuate, and precious metals fluctuate at a high level [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US president's announcement of more tariff letters leads the EU to take counter - measures, and the market takes a wait - and - see attitude. Fed officials indicate no urgent need for interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index rebounds in the short term [2]. - Domestic: China's June PMI data continues to rise, and export and financial data in June are better than expected, with economic growth accelerating. Policy emphasizes "anti - involution" and "stabilizing employment", which helps boost domestic risk preference in the short term [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as energy metals, metals, and home appliances, the domestic stock market rises slightly. The short - term macro - upward drive weakens, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fluctuate due to policy expectations and避险情绪. Silver shows a strong upward trend, and the gold - silver ratio is significantly repaired. In the long - term, the support logic for precious metals remains solid [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel futures and spot prices continue to rebound. Although the export in the first half of the year is good, the demand weakens in reality, and the supply decreases due to the implementation of production - restriction policies. The cost support is strong, and the short - term steel market is still treated with a rebound mindset [5]. Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore continue to rebound. The fundamentals of iron ore weaken marginally, and the implementation of production - restriction policies needs further attention. The short - term macro - logic dominates, and the price fluctuates strongly [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remain flat, and the futures prices rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys decreases, and the short - term prices may follow the rebound of coal prices [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - The concern about tariffs resurfaces. The future trend of copper prices depends on the time when tariffs are implemented. If implemented before August 1, copper prices will continue to weaken; otherwise, the price may be supported [11]. Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum drops significantly. In addition to tariff concerns, the significant increase in social inventory is also an important factor [11]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. Considering cost support, the short - term price will fluctuate strongly, but the upward space is limited [11]. Tin - The supply increases slightly, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upward space will be suppressed in the medium term [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate rises significantly. The production increases, and the inventory accumulates. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon rises. The production increases, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the "anti - involution" policy [14]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon rises. The supply is stable at a low level, and the downstream prices change. Affected by policy news, it is expected to be strong in the short term [15]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The concern about tariffs continues, and the demand worry puts pressure on oil prices. However, the short - term tightness in the spot market supports the price [16][17]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt fluctuates. The shipment volume decreases, the factory inventory starts to accumulate, and the demand in the peak season is average [17]. PX - The price of PX is expected to fluctuate weakly. The upstream profit is greatly reduced, and the downstream demand may weaken [17]. PTA - The PTA market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The price has limited upward space in the short term and may decline [18]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply of ethylene glycol returns significantly, and the demand slows down. It will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [18]. Short - fiber - The price of short - fiber follows the polyester sector and fluctuates weakly. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high [18][19]. Methanol - The fundamental situation of methanol deteriorates, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, while the 01 contract can be considered for long positions [19]. PP - The supply pressure of PP increases, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price center is expected to move down [19]. LLDPE - The demand for LLDPE is in the off - season, and the inventory increases. The short - term price may rebound slightly, but the long - term price center may move down [19]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The export inspection volume of US soybeans is lower than expected, and the压榨 volume is expected to decline. The future of Sino - US soybean trade relations will directly affect US soybeans [20]. Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - US soybeans are under pressure, and the risk of downward pressure on soybean meal and rapeseed meal increases. The consumption of rapeseed meal in the peak season is far from expected, and the inventory is slow to decline [21][22]. Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil - The supply and demand of soybean oil are loose, and the price difference is weak. The inventory of rapeseed oil is slow to decline, and the policy premium support weakens [23]. Palm Oil - The inventory of palm oil is repaired, and the price is under downward pressure in the short term. However, the export demand may be supported [24]. Corn - Affected by factors such as the substitution of new wheat and the auction of imported corn, the corn market is under pressure. However, there is still a risk of rebound after the over - decline [25]. Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs increases, and the pig price is under pressure at a high level. The futures price may decline slightly in the short term [25].