1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of manganese silicon/silicon iron is "Oscillating" [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ferroalloy industry will continue to face over - capacity in 2026, with planned new capacity additions. The industry's supply elasticity is high, and profit recovery will stimulate supply. Manganese ore cost provides some support for manganese silicon, and the demand for magnesium metal offers marginal support for silicon iron. With expected electricity price cuts in 2026, overall cost support will weaken, and ferroalloy prices are likely to remain weak [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 Ferroalloy Market Review - **Manganese Silicon**: The market showed a rise - then - fall pattern in 2025. In Q1, manganese ore price increases drove up costs and prices, followed by a decline due to increased supply and weak demand. In Q2, there was a rebound and then a fall. In Q3, prices strengthened with cost support, and in Q4, the market entered a weak - oscillating phase [14] - **Silicon Iron**: The market trended downwards in 2025. In Q1, weak demand and supply contraction led to a lack of price support. In Q2, cost reduction and weak demand pushed prices down. In Q3, cost increases drove up prices, and in Q4, the market declined again due to cost weakening and supply pressure [17] 2. Manganese Silicon: Continuous Capacity Expansion, Weakening Cost Support 2.1 Manganese Ore Support Limited, Electricity Price Declining - **Manganese Ore Supply Recovery, Limited Price Support**: In 2025, manganese ore prices first rose, then fell, and finally oscillated. The increase in Q1 was due to reduced Gabonese ore arrivals and concentrated cargo rights. After Q2, supply increased, and prices stabilized. China's manganese ore imports increased by 11% in 2025. In 2026, the supply increase will mainly come from South32's recovery, with an expected net import increase of 300,000 - 400,000 tons [25][26][35] - **Port Manganese Ore Inventory Rising from Low Levels**: In 2025, port inventory decreased in H1 and increased in H2. In 2026, inventory accumulation is expected to be limited. High ferromanganese slag production also affected inventory [41] - **Other Costs Weakening**: In 2026, coking coal prices are expected to have a bottom - up but limited - upside trend. Electricity prices are likely to decline due to the increase in new energy capacity, with a potential reduction of 2 - 3 cents per kWh in Northwest China [56] 2.2 New Capacity Coming into Operation - The manganese silicon industry is over - capacity, but low - electricity - price regions like Inner Mongolia have cost advantages, leading to continuous capacity expansion. In 2026, the planned new capacity is about 2.8632 million tons, and supply will increase [58] 2.3 Manganese Silicon Supply - Demand Summary and Balance Sheet - **Supply**: Supply will increase in 2026 due to new capacity in low - cost regions [72] - **Cost**: The cost - reduction pressure mainly comes from electricity prices, with a possible 2 - 3 cent per kWh reduction in Northwest China [72] - **Demand**: In 2026, steel demand is expected to be flat, and manganese silicon demand will be under pressure due to weak building material demand [72] - **Overall**: The 2026 manganese silicon market will have "increasing supply and stable demand", with a price range of 5,200 - 6,300 yuan/ton [73] 3. Silicon Iron: Increasing Supply, Weak Demand Support 3.1 Over - Capacity, Reduced Supply in High - Cost Regions - In 2025, silicon iron production decreased, with a "high - then - low" pattern. High - cost regions like Qinghai and Gansu reduced production. In 2026, new capacity of about 1.038 million tons is expected, mainly in cost - advantage regions [77][78] 3.2 Cost Reduction - In 2026, electricity prices are expected to decline by 2 - 3 cents per kWh in Northwest China. Lanthanum coke prices may also fall, leading to a lower cost center for silicon iron [83] 3.3 Steel Demand Stable, Export Declining, Magnesium Metal Supporting - **Export**: In 2025, silicon iron exports were high. In 2026, exports may decline due to high tariffs and potential competition from Ukraine [92] - **Magnesium Metal**: In 2026, the demand for magnesium alloy is expected to increase, providing some support for silicon iron, but the proportion is small [92] - **Steel**: In 2026, steel demand is expected to be stable, having a neutral impact on silicon iron demand [93] 3.4 Silicon Iron Supply - Demand Summary and Balance Sheet - **Supply**: New capacity will be concentrated in cost - advantage regions, with an expected increase in 2026 [96] - **Cost**: Electricity and coal prices are expected to decline, weakening cost support [96] - **Demand**: Exports may decline, and magnesium metal demand will provide limited support. Steel demand will be stable [96] - **Overall**: In 2026, the silicon iron market may have increasing supply and demand, with a price range of 5,000 - 6,000 yuan/ton [97]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Views - The steel market continues to oscillate. With low supply and demand, there is some support at low prices. After January, market funds may be more abundant, and the hot-rolled coil futures-spot positive arbitrage can still be rolled [2]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, strong expectations persist, and the prices are on the stronger side. However, the fundamentals are under pressure, and there is a high risk of a subsequent decline [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the spot price cut news did not lead to a continuous decline in the futures market. The market is likely to continue wide - range oscillations [5]. - For iron ore, small - scale rumors drive short - term fluctuations. The price has limited upside and downside space, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: On December 30, the closing prices of RB2610, HC2610, 12609, J2609, JM2609 were 3177.00, 3302.00, 767.00, 1795.50, 1200.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of - 2.00, - 10.00, - 3.50, 10.50, 12.00 yuan and - 0.06%, - 0.30%, - 0.45%, 0.59%, 1.01% [1]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: On December 30, the cross - month spreads of RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, 12605 - 2609, J2605 - 2609, JM2605 - 2609 were - 43.00, - 20.00, 22.00, - 80.50, - 80.50 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Differences/Ratios/Profits**: On December 30, the coil - to - screw spread was 148.00 yuan/ton, the screw - to - ore ratio was 3.97, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.53, the screw surface profit was - 83.10 yuan/ton, and the coking surface profit was 226.07 yuan/ton [1]. Steel Market - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the futures prices were stable, and the spot prices fluctuated slightly. The supply - demand structure was weak in both supply and demand. The pressure of destocking plates was prominent. After January, the molten iron output may stop falling and stabilize, and there will be some restocking behavior [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Unilateral trading can be based on an oscillatory approach. After January, it is beneficial for futures - spot positions to enter the market, and the hot - rolled coil futures - spot positive arbitrage can still be rolled [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The direct demand has weakened significantly, and the weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. The supply is still high, and the medium - term supply surplus pressure remains. The supply pressure of ferrosilicon is relatively lighter than that of silicomanganese [3]. - **Cost and Policy Factors**: The cost support of silicomanganese has strengthened, and relevant policies have formed constraints and cost support expectations for the supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [3]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in cross - month reverse arbitrage [6]. Coking Coal and Coke Market - **Market Situation**: The fourth round of spot price cuts for coke is expected to start. The futures market rebounded after the price dropped to the position of the fourth - round price cut. The market is likely to continue wide - range oscillations [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines for the time being [6]. Iron Ore Market - **Market Situation**: Affected by rumors, the iron ore price has risen, but the upside space is limited. The port inventory will continue to rise, and the steel apparent demand has declined slightly. The iron ore price has limited upside and downside space [6]. - **Investment Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines [6].

2025 年 12 月 31 日 商 品 研 究 硅铁：多空资金博弈，偏强震荡 锰硅：多空资金博弈，偏强震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2603 | 5750 | 7 4 | 232,982 | 230,640 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2605 | 5706 | 7 4 | 24,541 | 46,161 | | | 锰硅2603 | 5942 | 8 0 | 262,830 | 278,271 | | | 锰硅2605 | 5948 | 6 0 | 108,988 | 205,459 | | | 项 目 | | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁: ...

陈张滢 黑色建材日报 2025-12-31 黑色建材组 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3134 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.127%）。当日注册仓单 58056 吨, 环比增加 2440 吨。主力合约持仓量为 156.0806 万手，环比增加 30014 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3282 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 5 元/吨（-0.15%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 128.3319 万手，环比增加 7022 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices are likely to remain range-bound, supported by macro factors but constrained by the industry [2] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to experience a bullish oscillation due to the game between long and short funds [2] - Coke is expected to experience high-level oscillations as the fourth round of price cuts begins [2] - Coking coal is expected to experience high-level oscillations due to year-end production cuts [2] - Logs are expected to experience low-level oscillations [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 789.0 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.94% from the previous day. The open interest decreased by 16,080 lots to 613,601 lots. The prices of imported and domestic iron ore increased slightly, and the basis widened [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to November, the total operating income of state-owned enterprises was 75.62576 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%; the total profit was 3.71945 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; and the taxes payable were 5.2803 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the RB2605 and HC2605 futures contracts were 3,134 yuan/ton and 3,282 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.10%) and 11 yuan/ton (-0.33%) respectively. The open interest of RB2605 increased by 30,014 lots, and that of HC2605 increased by 7,022 lots. Spot prices remained stable, and the basis and spreads changed slightly [7] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 25, the weekly data from Steelhome showed that rebar production increased by 2.71 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 1.63 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 36.79 tons. In mid-December 2025, the average daily output of key steel enterprises decreased, and the steel inventory increased. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products. In mid-November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased. In October 2025, China's steel imports decreased [9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of rebar and hot-rolled coil are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Ferrosilicon2603 and Ferrosilicon2605 futures contracts were 5,750 yuan/ton and 5,706 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton. The closing prices of the Silicomanganese2603 and Silicomanganese2605 futures contracts were 5,942 yuan/ton and 5,948 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton and 60 yuan/ton respectively. Spot prices increased, and the basis and spreads changed [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 30, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions increased. The export tariffs of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will remain unchanged in 2026. In December, the average operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises decreased, and the production decreased year-on-year. The production in Ningxia and Shaanxi increased compared with November [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the JM2605 and J2605 futures contracts were 1,119.5 yuan/ton and 1,715 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan/ton (2.9%) and 34.5 yuan/ton (2.1%) respectively. Spot prices remained stable, and the basis and spreads changed [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 30, the CCI metallurgical coal index and the Mysteel metallurgical coke (dry quenching) domestic spot price index remained unchanged [15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [18] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the 2603, 2605, and 2607 futures contracts were 776, 787.5, and 796.5 respectively, with small fluctuations in prices and trading volumes. Spot prices remained stable [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 29, the State Council Tariff Commission issued the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan", which will be implemented from January 1, 2026 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The policy of exempting VAT on the sale of homes held for over 2 years by individuals starting from 2026 will promote the activity of the second - hand housing market and drive the linkage effect between first - hand and second - hand housing [7][8]. - For copper, although price increases may suppress domestic demand, the long - term driving logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments provide opportunities for long - term buying [9][10]. - Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term [11]. - For live pigs, the pressure on supply will be concentrated in January, and there are opportunities to short near - month contracts at high prices [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Real Estate - **Policy Impact**: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes held for over 2 years will be exempt from VAT, while those held for less than 2 years will be taxed at a 3% levy rate. This policy will reduce the cost of housing sales, stimulate housing consumption, and promote the activity of the second - hand housing market [7][8]. Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term benchmark price TC is set at $0/ton, and policies may lead to structural changes in the smelting industry [9]. - **Demand - side**: The long - term consumption recovery expectation is strong, especially driven by emerging industries such as computing power centers. However, high prices may suppress domestic demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term price adjustments are good entry points for long - term buying [10]. Glass - **Short - term Drivers**: Environmental protection issues in Hubei may lead to production cuts, the 01 contract's position - to - warrant ratio is unfavorable to shorts, and low prices in Hebei have stimulated market stocking [11]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: The market may fluctuate due to high inventory levels and weakening basis [11]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In late December, there was a structural shortage of pigs, but the overall inventory change was small. The price increase in late December led to re - stocking, and the pressure will be postponed to January [12]. - **Supply and Demand in January**: The group's January sales plan may be slightly reduced, but the need to avoid selling during the Spring Festival will increase supply pressure. Demand in January may not increase significantly, and prices are expected to rise weakly [12]. Other Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately falling [14]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment [14]. - **Zinc**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [14]. - **Lead**: Inventory increases are pressuring prices [14]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted again [14]. - **Aluminum**: It shows a strengthening and fluctuating trend [14]. - **Alumina**: It continues to be at the bottom [14]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [14]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [14]. - **Stainless steel**: The fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [14]. Chemicals - **PX, PTA**: They are in a high - level fluctuating market. PX supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and PTA supply is recovering while downstream profits are being squeezed [69][72][73]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and it still faces medium - term pressure. Although there are expectations of load reduction, the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [69][74]. - **Rubber**: It shows a wide - range fluctuation [75]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It is falling from a high level [78]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable [81]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market is stabilizing and fluctuating [84]. - **Caustic soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The market is characterized by high production and high inventory [87][89]. - **Paper pulp**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [93]. - **Methanol**: It is strong in the short - term [102]. - **Urea**: The fluctuation center is moving up [107]. - **Styrene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [111]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [116]. - **LPG**: The CP in January is at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase [118]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [118]. - **PVC**: It shows a weak and fluctuating trend. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [126][128]. Energy - **Fuel oil**: It is in a narrow - range adjustment and may remain strong in the short - term [129]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable [129]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is fluctuating at a high level. The key issues for the 2602 contract are the height of freight rates, the inflection point time, and the rate of price decline. For the 2604 contract, shorting at high prices has a relatively high probability of winning [131][141][142][143]. Agricultural Products - **Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: They are fluctuating at a high level [145]. - **Offset - printing paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [148]. - **Pure benzene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [153]. - **Palm oil**: It has a short - term rebound, but the driving force is weak [156]. - **Soybean oil**: It moves within a range, and attention should be paid to the month - spread opportunities [156]. - **Soybean meal**: It fluctuates, and holiday risks should be avoided [163]. - **Soybean**: It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see before the festival [164]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [167]. - **Sugar**: It is running weakly [171]. - **Cotton**: It maintains a fluctuating and strengthening trend [176]. - **Eggs**: They show short - term fluctuations [181]. - **Live pigs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and the price is strong before the festival [184]. - **Peanuts**: Positions are being reduced before the festival [189].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the reports [1][3][6][7][8] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Yesterday's steel prices remained stable. Steel production continued to decrease and inventories declined. There was a large supply - demand gap for rebar, with good inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coil inventory reduction was still slow. Seasonal decline in apparent demand led to weak demand. Although production cuts and strong raw materials supported steel prices to repair upwards from low levels, the weak demand limited the upward drive. Rebar price fluctuations were expected to be in the 3000 - 3200 range, and hot - rolled coil in the 3150 - 3350 range. It was recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1] Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the 09 iron ore contract fluctuated. In terms of fundamentals, the supply side was in the shipping peak season, with some mines ramping up production at the end of the year. Although the arrival volume decreased slightly, it was still at a high level in the same period of history. Based on shipping calculations, the arrival volume would remain high in the next two weeks, but it would enter the off - season in the first quarter of next year, and the impact of weather on supply needed attention. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained flat week - on - week, at a historically low level. Some steel mills resumed production, while others were under maintenance. The profitability of steel mills improved, but due to the off - season and many overhauls, the subsequent resumption of production was expected to be limited. In terms of inventory, iron ore inventory was at a high level in the same period, and it would continue to accumulate due to high future arrival volumes and low off - port volume in the off - season. Although the short - term resumption of molten iron production was limited, winter storage and pre - festival restocking might support the ore price. In the future, iron ore would transition from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand weakness. The price was capped by high inventory, and the demand could not absorb the supply increase when priced above $110 in the off - season. There was support from the restocking expectation of steel mills with low inventory. In the short term, the focus was on the molten iron trend and the restocking rhythm of steel mills, and in the long term, on the negotiation situation. It was expected that the iron ore price would fluctuate strongly. Short - term operations were recommended, with the reference range of 770 - 840 [3] Coke Industry - Yesterday, the coke futures rebounded in a fluctuating manner. On the spot side, the third round of price cuts for coke was implemented on December 22, and the fourth round was launched on the 29th. The port price fell in advance and was currently stable with a weak trend. On the supply side, the coking coal prices in the Shanxi market showed mixed trends, and the auction prices of various coal types showed signs of bottom - rebounding. Coke price adjustment lagged behind coking coal, squeezing the coking profit and reducing the start - up rate. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, molten iron output declined, and steel prices fluctuated at a low level, with the intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased their inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly. Coke supply - demand weakened. The coke futures fell in advance, and the spot price decline referred to the coking coal decline space. For strategies, after three rounds of spot price cuts, the basis weakened, and the expected - driven rebound was difficult to sustain. It was recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies, and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [6] Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, the coking coal futures rebounded in a fluctuating manner. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal turned to a mixed trend, Mongolian coal quotes fluctuated with futures, the auction failure rate rebounded again recently, and traders were cautious about restocking. The thermal coal market continued to decline. On the supply side, near the end of the year, coking coal production might continue to decline; for imported coal, the port inventory was at a high level at the end of the year, and mines carried out shipping volume ramping up. On the demand side, steel mill losses and maintenance decreased, and molten iron output remained stable, but the coking profit declined, the daily output of coking plants decreased slightly, and the market's restocking demand weakened. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, coke enterprises, mines, ports, steel mills, and ports all increased their inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly. The policy focused on ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants. For strategies, the rebound expectation was over - priced in advance. Unilateral operations were recommended to short on rallies, and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon price continued to be strong, breaking through the previous pressure level, and the spot market was also strong, with discussions about capacity elimination in Shaanxi. On the supply side, this week's ferrosilicon production continued to decline, but the decline narrowed compared with the previous period. The production cuts were mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Gansu, while production in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai increased slightly. In terms of steel - making demand, the molten iron output was basically flat week - on - week, with some steel mills under maintenance and some resuming production. With more large - scale overhauls and weak demand, the molten iron output was expected to remain stable in the short term, and the steel - making demand would be stable. In terms of non - steel demand, downstream restocking increased near the end of the month, but the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. In terms of exports, overseas inquiries and transactions were okay near Christmas, but the acceptance of high prices was insufficient, and there were still impacts from the re - export trade of Russia and North Korea. On the cost side, the semi - coke price decreased slightly, and low - cost power regions had an advantage. Looking forward, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needed to be alleviated, but the production cut expectation was priced in. The improvement expectation of the demand side was insufficient, and the price lacked upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the expectation change and the semi - coke price. In the short term, the price was expected to fluctuate within the range of 5650 - 5900 [8] - Ferromanganese: Recently, ferromanganese was strongly running, and the spot market was stable. On the supply side, the production increased slightly, and the supply remained at a normal level in the same period of history. Recently, new capacities in Inner Mongolia were released, and the short - term production still had room for growth. There were rumors of production cuts in Guangxi and Guizhou, but they were not implemented. In terms of steel - making demand, the molten iron output was basically flat week - on - week, with some steel mills under maintenance and some resuming production. With more large - scale overhauls and weak demand, the molten iron output was expected to remain stable in the short term, and the steel - making demand would be stable. The price - pressing sentiment of steel mills in the copper - aluminum industry was strong. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory remained at a high level, and the inflection point had not appeared, and the supply - demand contradiction still existed. On the cost side, the manganese ore price was stable, and some overseas mines raised their January quotes. The low - inventory situation supported the ore price. Overall, ferromanganese was in a state of self - supply surplus but relatively balanced in the whole market. The manganese ore supported the ferromanganese price, and the key was the production cut amplitude and the end - year winter storage restocking expectation of steel mills. The short - term supply - demand contradiction was priced in, and there was no clear trend - reversal signal. It was expected that the price would fluctuate downward. The strategy was mainly range - trading, with the reference range of 5700 - 6000 [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3300 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 increased by 4 yuan/ton, 1 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China and South China remained unchanged, while the North China price increased by 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and 3 yuan/ton respectively [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 2940 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 3209 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 12 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 226.5 tons, with no significant change. The output of five major steel products decreased by 1.1 tons to 796.8 tons. Rebar production increased by 2.7 tons to 184.4 tons, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.6 tons to 293.5 tons [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 36.8 tons to 1258.0 tons, rebar inventory decreased by 18.3 tons to 434.3 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 13.5 tons to 377.2 tons [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 2.5 to 11.3, a decrease of 20.8%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 1.7 to 833.6 tons, rebar apparent demand decreased by 6.0 to 202.7 tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 8.8 to 307.0 tons [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed different trends. The 05 - contract basis of some iron ore powders increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.0 to 22.0, while the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 to 20.0 [3] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of some iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swaps remained unchanged, while the Platts 62% Fe increased by 1.0 to 107.9 [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 76.7 tons to 2646.7 tons, the global shipping volume decreased by 128.0 tons to 3464.5 tons, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 74.7 tons to 11054.0 tons [3] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons, the 45 - port daily average off - port volume increased by 1.6 to 315.1 tons, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 320.6 tons to 6234.3 tons, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 212.6 tons to 6987.1 tons [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 176.2 tons to 15858.66 tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 136.2 tons to 8860.2 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 19.0 [3] Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract decreased by 6, and the 05 contract increased by 35. The coking profit decreased by 11 [6] Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) price remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, and the coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) price increased by 5 to 1159 yuan/ton [6] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average output increased by 0.3 to 46.8 tons [6] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 12.2 tons to 912.6 tons, the all - sample coking plant coke inventory increased by 1.1 tons to 92.2 tons, the 247 - steel - mill coke inventory increased by 8.5 tons to 642.2 tons, and the port inventory increased by 2.5 tons to 178.2 tons [6] Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap remained at - 0.2 tons [6] Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) price increased by 5 to 1159 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract increased by 35, and the 05 contract increased by 32. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 1 [7] Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price remained unchanged at 230 US dollars/ton, the Jingtang Port Australian main - coking coal ex - warehouse price increased by 20 to 1560 yuan/ton, and the Guangzhou Port Australian thermal coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 1.9 to 698 yuan/ton [7] Supply - The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons [7] Demand - The all - sample coking plant daily average output decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average output increased by 0.3 to 46.8 tons [7] Inventory Changes - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 134.9 tons, the all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory increased by 3.4 tons to 1039.7 tons, the 247 - steel - mill coking coal inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 806.7 tons, and the port inventory increased by 13.3 tons to 299.5 tons [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon: The spot prices in different regions increased to varying degrees, and the main - contract closing price increased by 74 to 5676 yuan/ton. Ferromanganese: The spot prices in different regions also increased, and the main - contract closing price increased by 80 to 5862 yuan/ton [8] Cost and Profit - Ferrosilicon: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the production profit increased. Ferromanganese: The manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port remained stable, and the production costs in different regions remained unchanged [8] Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipping volume increased by 15 to 85.2 tons, the arrival volume increased by 2.5 to 40.8 tons, and the off - port volume decreased by 3.5 to 55.7 tons [8] Supply - Ferrosilicon: The production decreased slightly, and the production enterprise start - up rate decreased. Ferromanganese: The start - up rate increased, and the production increased [8] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons, the five - major - steel - product output decreased by 1.1 tons to 796.8 tons, the ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged at 1.8 tons, and the ferromanganese demand increased by 0.0 to 11.3 tons [8] Inventory Changes - Ferrosilicon: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.2 tons to 6.4 tons, and the average available days decreased by 0.4 to 15.4 days. Ferromanganese: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons to 38.6 tons, and the average available days increased by 0.1 to 16 days [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on December 31, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5300 and 5320 respectively, with daily changes of 50 and weekly changes of 50. The latest prices of the main contract and 01 contract were 5750 and 5564 respectively, with daily changes of 74 and 30, and weekly changes of 102 and 46 [2]. - For silicon manganese, on the same date, the latest ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5650, with a daily change of 60 and a weekly change of 80. The latest main contract price was 5942, with a daily change of 80 and a weekly change of 120 [2]. Supply - The monthly production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, showing the overall supply trend of the silicon ferroalloy industry [5]. - The weekly production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided, reflecting the supply situation of the silicon manganese industry [7]. Demand - The monthly estimated and actual production of crude steel in China from 2021 - 2025 are shown, which is related to the demand for ferroalloys [5][8]. - The monthly demand data of silicon manganese in China (Steel Union caliber) from 2021 - 2025 are presented, indicating the market demand for silicon manganese [5][8]. Inventory - The weekly inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are provided, along with the daily data of CZCE silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of them [6]. - The daily data of CZCE silicon manganese warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of them from 2021 - 2025 are presented, as well as the weekly inventory data of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 [8]. Cost and Profit - Cost - related factors such as electricity prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi) and the market price of semi - coking coal in Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are shown, affecting the production cost of ferroalloys [6]. - The production profit data of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, as well as the export profit data of 75 - grade silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 are presented [6]. - The profit data of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region from 2021 - 2025 are provided [8].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Black Metal Daily Report, Ferroalloy Daily Report [1][3] - Date: December 30, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF Main Contract: Closing price 5750, daily change +74, weekly change +102, trading volume 232982 (-85107), open interest 231184 (-544) [2] - SM Main Contract: Closing price 5942, daily change +80, weekly change +120, trading volume 262830 (-28054), open interest 278271 (+14109) [2] Spot - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Jiangsu, and Tianjin increased by 50 yuan/ton, in Qinghai by 30 yuan/ton [2] - Manganese Silicon: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia increased by 60 yuan/ton, in Ningxia by 50 yuan/ton, in Guangxi by 20 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu and Tianjin by 30 yuan/ton [2] Basis/Spread - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Inner Mongolia - Main contract -350 (-24, -52), Ningxia - Main contract -350 (-24, -52), Qinghai - Main contract -420 (-44, -22), Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia 350 (0, 0), SF - SM spread -192 (-6, -18) [2] - Manganese Silicon: Inner Mongolia - Main contract -292 (-20, -40), Ningxia - Main contract -372 (-30, -90), Guangxi - Main contract -222 (-60, -70), Guangxi - Inner Mongolia 70 (-40, -30) [2] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): Australian lump 41.5 (0, 0), South African semi - carbonate 34.8 (+0.1, +0.3), Gabon lump 42.5 (0, -0.3) [2] - Blue Coke Small Material: Shaanxi 770 (0, 0), Ningxia 840 (0, -30), Inner Mongolia 750 (0, 0) [2] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Due to the expected marginal improvement in supply - demand and cost push, short - term volatility is bullish [5][6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6] Key Points for Each Product - Silicon Ferrosilicon: On the 30th, spot prices rose 30 - 50 yuan/ton. Supply decreased slightly due to poor profits. Demand is expected to increase after blast furnace复产 in January. Costs are stable. Market sentiment is positive, short - term volatility is bullish [5] - Manganese Silicon: On the 30th, manganese ore spot was stable to strong, and manganese silicon spot rose 20 - 60 yuan/ton. Supply will be stable with new capacity coming on - stream. Demand will be supported by blast furnace复产 in January. Costs are firm due to falling port inventories. Market sentiment is positive, short - term volatility is bullish [5] Group 4: Important Information - On the 30th, Tianjin Port's Australian lump (Mn41.2%) was quoted at 41.5 yuan/ton degree, semi - carbonate (Mn36.6%, Fe4.6%) at 35 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump (Mn47%) at 43 yuan/ton degree, and CML Australian lump (Mn47%) at 44 yuan/ton degree [7] - In December, there were 65 silicon ferrosilicon enterprises in production with 217 submerged arc furnaces. The average monthly start - up rate was 44.58% (-2.47% compared to November), and the output was expected to be 46.45 tons (-0.41%, -4.87% YoY). The cumulative output in 2025 was 552.69 tons (-4.71 tons, -0.84% compared to 2024) [7] Group 5: Cost and Profit Silicon Ferrosilicon | Region | Production Cost (yuan/ton) | Profit (yuan/ton) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Inner Mongolia | 5492 | -172 | | Ningxia | 5593 | -293 | | Shaanxi | 5577 | -307 | | Qinghai | 5911 | -631 | | Gansu | 5759 | -459 | [14] Manganese Silicon | Region | Production Cost (yuan/ton) | Profit (yuan/ton) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Inner Mongolia | 5778 | -188 | | Ningxia | 5880 | -360 | | Guangxi | 6231 | -531 | | Guizhou | 6119 | -469 | [20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are supported by production cuts and strong raw materials but lack upward momentum due to weak demand. The price range for rebar is expected to be between 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils between 3150 - 3350. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and avoid going long on the rebar-iron ore ratio [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The supply will remain high in the short term, but the demand is limited. The price range is expected to be between 770 - 840. Short-term long positions can be attempted [4]. Coke Industry - Coke supply and demand have weakened. It is recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies and consider the strategy of longing coking coal and shorting coke [7]. Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal prices are expected to decline. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the strategy of longing coking coal and shorting coke [8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon supply and demand contradictions still exist, and prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the Ningxia production cost [9]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the rebar spot price in East China increased from 3290 to 3300 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged, while the cost and profit of different steel products showed different trends. For example, the cost of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar decreased by 17 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot-rolled coils decreased by 16 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, and the production of five major steel products decreased slightly. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8%, and the rebar inventory decreased by 4.0% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 19.8%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.2%, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.9%, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 2.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased, and the basis of some varieties decreased. The 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 2.8%, the global shipping volume decreased by 3.6%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 0.7% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 0.5%, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 4.9%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 3.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 1.1%, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6%, and the available days of inventory for 64 steel mills decreased by 9.5% [4]. Coke Industry Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke decreased, and the coke futures prices also decreased. The coking profit decreased [7]. Supply - The weekly coke production decreased slightly [7]. Demand - The pig iron output remained unchanged, and the steel mills' willingness to suppress coke prices increased [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.4%, and the inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal and Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased slightly, and the coking coal futures prices decreased [8]. Supply - The weekly production of raw coal and clean coal decreased slightly, and the coal mine inventory increased [8]. Demand - The pig iron output remained stable, the coking profit decreased, and the coking plant's production decreased slightly [8]. Inventory - The inventories of washing plants, coking enterprises, coal mines, ports, steel mills, and ports all increased [8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures increased slightly, and the spot prices remained unchanged [9]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions remained stable, and the production profits remained unchanged [9]. Supply - The weekly ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and the ferromanganese production increased slightly [9]. Demand - The pig iron output remained unchanged, the steel mill's procurement volume decreased slightly, and the demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese remained stable [9]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of ferromanganese enterprises increased slightly [9].