Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given text Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, the latest prices of 72% FeSi in different regions on 2025/10/15 are as follows: 5130 in Ningxia, 5150 in Inner Mongolia, 5150 in Qinghai, 5100 in Shaanxi; the price of 75% FeSi in Shaanxi is 6100. The prices of silicon ferroalloy in some regions have decreased compared to the previous week [2]. - For silicon manganese, the latest prices of FeMn65Si17 in different regions on 2025/10/15 are as follows: 5650 in Inner Mongolia, 5600 in Ningxia, 5700 in Guangxi, 5650 in Guizhou, 5630 in Yunnan; the price of FeMn60Si14 in Guangxi is 5100. Some prices have decreased compared to the previous week [2]. Supply - For silicon ferroalloy, there is information about the production capacity utilization rate of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, etc., and the weekly production of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (with a production capacity accounting for 95%) [5]. - For silicon manganese, there is information about the weekly production of silicon manganese in China and the production capacity utilization rate of silicon manganese enterprises in China [7]. Demand - For silicon ferroalloy, there are data on the export price of silicon ferroalloy at Tianjin Port, the export quantity of silicon ferroalloy in China, the procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by HBIS Group, etc. [5]. - For silicon manganese, there are data on the demand for silicon manganese in China (according to Steelhome), the export quantity of silicon manganese in China, etc. [8]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, there is information about the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, etc., the number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of silicon ferroalloy on CZCE, and the average available days of inventory in different regions [6]. - For silicon manganese, there is information about the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory of silicon manganese on CZCE, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China, and the average available days of inventory in China [8]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, there are data on electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, the production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, etc. [6]. - For silicon manganese, there are data on the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions, and the profit of silicon manganese in Ningxia and Guangxi converted to the main contract [8].

Report Overview - The report is a black metal research report from the Commodity Research Institute, focusing on the market conditions of ferrosilicon (SF) and silicomanganese (SM) on October 14, 2025 [2][7] Market Information Futures Market - SF主力合约收盘价5378，日变动-28，周变动-232，成交量92807，日变化-68581，持仓量97482，日变化-22954 [2] - SM主力合约收盘价5738，日变动-8，周变动-82，成交量133881，日变化-24763，持仓量382892，日变化3627 [2] Spot Market - 硅铁现货价格稳中偏弱，部分区域下跌30 - 50元/吨；锰硅现货价格稳中偏弱，部分区域下跌20元/吨 [7] Basis/Spread - 硅铁和锰硅不同地区与主力合约基差及地区间价差有不同变化 [3] Raw Materials - 锰矿（天津）部分品种日变动-0.2元/吨度，周变动-0.2 - 0.4元/吨度；兰炭小料价格日变动和周变动多为0 [3] Market Judgment Trading Strategy - 单边：上方受宏观情绪和钢材需求压制冲击，但合金估值不高，底部震荡运行 [8] - 套利：观望 [8] - 期权：卖出虚值看跌期权 [8] Key Insights - 硅铁供需整体平稳，估值水平不高，底部震荡为主；锰硅上方受关税宏观以及螺纹需求压制，但估值中性，成本端锰矿库存同期低位，底部震荡运行 [7] Important Information - 14日天津港部分锰矿报价：澳块39.5元/吨度，南非半碳酸33.8元/吨度，加蓬块39.8元/吨度 [3][9] - 2025年9月挖掘机销售19858台，同比增长25.4%；1 - 9月共销售174039台，同比增长18.1% [9] Related Attachments - 包含铁合金主力合约走势、盘面主力合约sf - sm价差、硅铁和锰硅月间价差、基差、现货价格、电价、成本与利润等图表 [10][13][15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak, and the prices of finished steel products trended downwards. Although the direct impact of tariffs on steel is small, steel prices may decline in the context of a weakening commodity market. The current weak reality pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term, and attention should be paid to the policy strength during the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - For the black sector, the research team is not pessimistic. Instead of short - selling, it believes that finding callback positions to do long may be more cost - effective. The key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel Products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3083 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.64%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10910 tons, and the open interest increased by 26595 lots. The terminal demand dropped to a new low, inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased significantly [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3261 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.73%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 2058 tons, and the open interest increased by 24873 lots. The production decreased slightly, but the apparent demand decreased more significantly, and the inventory increase was prominent [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, up 1.19% (+9.50). The open interest increased by 9148 lots to 48.53 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 796 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.15 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.98% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. The daily average pig iron output was 241.54 million tons, down 0.27 million tons. The profitability of steel mills continued to decline. If the finished steel situation weakens after the holiday, the iron ore price may adjust accordingly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract (SM601) closed down 0.24% at 5746 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 124 yuan/ton over the futures. Its fundamentals are not ideal, and it is likely to follow the black sector [8][10]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract (SF511) closed down 0.55% at 5406 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 244 yuan/ton over the futures. Its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is also likely to follow the black sector [8][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8805 yuan/ton, up 1.38% (+120). The open interest increased by 13950 lots to 429365 lots. The supply - demand situation has no immediate concerns, and the far - month contract valuation is expected to rise [12][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract (PS2511) closed at 48740 yuan/ton, down 0.46% (-225). The open interest decreased by 107 lots to 246615 lots. The market may enter a fundamental correction stage, and the price is under pressure in the short term [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1179 yuan/ton, down 2.32% (-28). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 346.9 million cases (+5.84%). The short - term price is expected to continue the stable and narrow - range oscillation pattern [18][19]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract closed at 1247 yuan/ton, up 0.56% (+7). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 5.99 million tons (+5.84%). The short - term market is expected to continue the stable and weak trend [20][21].

| | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | | 宁夏#72 内蒙#72 | 5130 5200 | -50 0 | -50 0 | 5430 5550 | 主力合约 01合约 | 5406 5368 | -30 -28 | -66 -72 | | 硅铁自然块 | | | | | | | | | | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5150 | -50 | -50 | 5480 | 05合约 | 5478 | -30 | -94 | | | 陕西#72 | 5100 | -50 | -50 | 5400 | 09合约 | 5584 | -36 | -104 | | | 陕西#75 | 6100 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | 24 | -20 | 16 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江 ...

华宝期货 2025.10.13 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、铁矿石、煤焦、铁合金） 【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CONOMO: 010 | | 2025.10.10 | 2025.9.30 | | 价格变动 | | 2025.10.10 | 2025.9.30 | | 价格变动 | | 螺纹钢 | RB2601 | 3103 | 3072 | 31 | 1.01% | HRB400E: Φ20:汇总价格:上海 | 3230 | 3230 | 0 | 0.00% | | 热轧卷板 | HC2601 | 3285 | 3253 | 32 | 0.98% | Q235B: 5.75*1500*C: 市场价: 上海 | 3340 | 3330 | 10 | 0.30% | | 铁矿石 | 12601 | 795 | 780.5 | ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 13 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5406 | -30 | -254 | 161388 | 58429 | 118193 | -20711 | | SM主力合约 | 5746 | -14 | -102 | 158644 | 32662 | 379265 | 2674 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5300 | 0 | -100 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5650 | -20 | -30 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 5230 | -50 | -120 | 硅锰6517宁夏 | 5600 | -20 | -20 | | 72 ...

Report Date - The report is dated October 13, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views Steel - The current overseas macro - environment is under pressure. Whether the Sino - US trade negotiation can ease will be the core factor affecting asset prices. The overall situation is bearish, and asset prices may face pressure. With the weakening of steel fundamentals and the weakening support of iron ore, steel prices are more likely to decline. Short - term macro - level changes will have a higher impact than fundamental changes, and market volatility may increase [3] Iron Ore - In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore are under marginal pressure. Shipments are high, inventory is accumulating seasonally, downstream hot metal has support, but steel demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and profits are declining. The price is expected to rise first and then fall, still oscillating within a range [22] Coal and Coke - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of downstream finished products has deteriorated, the profitability of steel mills is under pressure, and the second round of coke price increase is difficult. In the medium - to - long term, under the policy constraints of "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection", the supply elasticity of coking coal in the fourth quarter is limited. The winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, which will support coal and coke prices. However, the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of the downstream steel can achieve a "soft landing" [34] Ferroalloys - There is a contradiction between high supply and weak demand in ferroalloys. The production of ferrosilicon remains high, while the production of silicomanganese has declined for many weeks. The cost support is challenged due to the continuous decline of coking coal prices [53] Soda Ash - Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, increasing the volatility of soda ash. The second - phase of Yuanxing has been ignited and is in the commissioning stage, and the long - term supply pressure of soda ash persists. The inventory of upstream alkali plants is starting to accumulate. The overall high inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches restricts the price of soda ash, but there is limited downward space due to cost support [64] Glass - The implementation of the coal - to - gas project in Shahe may be postponed to November. Glass production and sales are average, and the upstream inventory accumulation exceeds expectations. Some glass production lines still have the intention to ignite. The high inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price increase [89] Summary by Directory Steel Futures Prices - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3083, 3139, and 2986 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3261, 3274, and 3437 yuan/ton respectively [4] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3237 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton [8] Basis and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 137 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 59 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 182 yuan/ton [8][14] Iron Ore Futures Prices - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 804.5, 781, and 759 yuan/ton respectively [23] Fundamental Data - As of October 10, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 241.54 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 14024.5 tons, and the global iron ore shipment volume was 3207.5 tons [28] Coal and Coke Futures Prices and Basis - On October 13, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1200 yuan/ton, and the main coking coal basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 38.5 yuan/ton. The coke warehouse receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1583 yuan/ton, and the main coke basis (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was - 83.1 yuan/ton [39] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1530 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [40] Ferroalloys Ferrosilicon - On October 13, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 94 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon spot price in Ningxia was 5230 yuan/ton [54] Silicomanganese - On October 13, 2025, the silicomanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270 yuan/ton, and the silicomanganese spot price in Ningxia was 5600 yuan/ton [56] Soda Ash Futures Prices and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1336, 1406, and 1247 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 70 yuan/ton [65] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [68] Glass Futures Prices and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1313, 1392, and 1179 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 79 yuan/ton [89] Production and Sales - On October 10, 2025, the production - sales ratio of glass in Shahe was 61%, in Hubei was 82%, in East China was 82%, and in South China was 100% [90]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - On October 13, the silicon ferroalloy 2601 contract was reported at 5406, down 0.95%. The spot price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia was reported at 5200, down 30 yuan/ton. In the macro - aspect, China's rare - earth export control is not a ban, and the impact on the supply chain is limited. In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers mainly maintain normal production and deliver previous orders, with a neutral inventory level. The price of semi - coke has stabilized and rebounded, providing short - term cost support. The operation should be treated as a volatile market [2]. - On October 13, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5746, down 0.24%. The spot price of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5550. Affected by factors such as intensified trade risks and the continued shutdown of the US federal government, the market experienced a "Black Friday". Fundamentally, inventory rebounded rapidly before the holiday, production continued to decline slightly at a high level, and inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. The operation should be treated as a volatile market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - SM main contract closing price was 5746 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; SF main contract closing price was 5406 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract holding volume was 574,402 hands, up 9081 hands; SF futures contract holding volume was 409,688 hands, up 30,544 hands [2]. - Manganese - silicon top 20 net holding volume was - 54,938 hands, up 776 hands; silicon ferroalloy top 20 net holding volume was - 27,323 hands, up 4336 hands [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 22 yuan/ton; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 110 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts were 52,402, down 1639; SF warehouse receipts were 14,036, down 1004 [2]. Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Qinghai silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Ningxia silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average was 5671.9 yuan/ton, down 22.1 yuan; SF main contract basis was - 206 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - SM main contract basis was - 196 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block in Tianjin Port was 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1150 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 760 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory was 447.80 million tons, up 20.60 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 43.19%, down 0.99%; silicon ferroalloy enterprise operating rate was 35.94%, up 0.61% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply was 204,225 tons, down 2205 tons; silicon ferroalloy supply was 115,800 tons, up 1300 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 242,500 tons, up 8700 tons; silicon ferroalloy manufacturer inventory was 66,030 tons, up 4570 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory was 15.93 days, up 0.95 days; silicon ferroalloy national steel mill inventory was 15.52 days, up 0.85 days [2]. Downstream Situation - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand was 122,073 tons, down 411 tons; five major steel types' silicon ferroalloy demand was 19,754.6 tons, down 111.3 tons [2]. - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate was 84.25%, down 0.02%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.53%, down 0.10% [2]. - Crude steel output was 77.3686 million tons, down 2.2896 million tons [2]. Industry News - China's export control is not a ban on exports, and applications that meet the regulations will be approved. The impact on the supply chain is considered limited [2]. - China has implemented counter - measures against the US 301 investigation restrictions on the shipbuilding industry, and the Ministry of Transport will charge special port fees for US ships [2]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation has launched an investigation into Qualcomm for suspected antitrust law violations [2]. - The annual power consumption of global data centers currently accounts for over 3% of the world's total electricity consumption, and it is expected to reach 11% - 17% by 2030, which may impact the power industry [2]. Profit and Market Pricing - Inner Mongolia silicon ferroalloy spot profit was - 460 yuan/ton; Ningxia silicon ferroalloy spot profit was - 495 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's September 75B silicon ferroalloy tender price was 5800 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the previous round [2]. - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon spot profit was - 130 yuan/ton; Ningxia manganese - silicon spot profit was - 250 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's September manganese - silicon final price was 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton month - on - month [2].

让衍生品成为 新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 报告日期：2025/10/10 截至 9 月 30 日，硅锰连续合约收盘价 5628 元/吨，硅铁连续合约收盘价 5310 元/吨，对应历史分位值分别为 9.6%、13.7%，当前价格较上半年低点的下 行空间有限，十月份仍需关注煤炭价格变动以及宏观情绪变化。操作上建议短 期空仓观望为主，中期关注商品季节性下跌后逢低做多的机会。价格方面，硅 锰主力合约价格参考区间 5400-7000 元/吨，硅铁主力合约价格参考区间 5100- 6600 元/吨。 风险与关注：反内卷、会议窗口期、美联储降息、粗钢压减政策、澳矿 发运、南非限制出口、煤矿复产、电力改革等。 K 2025 年黑色商品四季度策略报告 铁合金 四季度价格或前低后高，关注合金低估值区间 黑色研究团队 中辉期货研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2015]75 号 从国内铁合金基本面来看，目前硅锰日均产量约为 3 万吨，硅铁日均产量 约为 1.65 万吨，均处于同期高位。表内库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. The market trends of each commodity are analyzed based on factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and trade policies. The report suggests corresponding trading strategies for each commodity, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Macro influences increase, and the volatility of meal products widens. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices decline. South American soybean exports to China offset the decrease in US soybean exports. It is recommended to short the soybean meal 05 contract at high points, hold long positions in rapeseed meal, and conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: Typhoon weather is favorable for the market. ICE and London sugar prices decline. Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic sugar market is affected by the typhoon. It is expected that the international sugar price will fluctuate within a range, and the domestic sugar price will also show a short - term oscillatory trend [17][18][20]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Sino - US tariffs resurface, and the market maintains a short - term oscillatory trend. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increases in September, and domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory. It is recommended to wait and see first and consider lightly going long on dips [21][22][23]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: New grain is concentrated on the market, and the price oscillates at the bottom. The US corn price is weak, and domestic new - crop corn is abundant. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month corn contract on dips, and gradually establish long - term long positions in the 05 and 07 corn contracts [24][25][27]. - **Hogs**: The pressure of slaughter continues to be reflected, and the spot price continues to decline. Hog prices fall in various regions, and the overall supply is sufficient. It is recommended to short at high points and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [27][28][29]. - **Peanuts**: Harvest is affected by rainfall, and peanuts are short - term bullish. The average price of peanuts declines slightly, and the inventory of peanut oil manufacturers changes. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 peanut contracts lightly [30][31][32]. - **Eggs**: Oscillate weakly. Egg prices decline, and the inventory of laying hens is high. It is recommended to short near - month contracts at high points [33][34][36]. - **Apples**: Oscillate slightly bullishly. Apple inventory decreases, and new - crop apples are affected by rainfall. It is expected that the price will oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [37][38][42]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate slightly bearishly. ICE cotton prices decline. The Sino - US trade war affects cotton consumption. It is expected that the US cotton price will oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton price will oscillate slightly bearishly [43][44][46]. Black Metals - **Steel**: US tariff increases put slight pressure on steel prices. The black sector oscillates weakly, and steel inventories accumulate. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend and go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar at low points [48][49][50]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Long positions can be lightly established on dips. The market may be affected by macro - market sentiment, but the impact is expected to be small. It is recommended to go long on dips [50][51][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bearish approach at high levels. Global iron ore shipments increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hedge at high levels in the spot market and conduct reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [53][54][56]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is not high, and short positions can be reduced during macro - shocks. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable to weak. It is recommended to reduce short positions during macro - shocks [56][57][58]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Trade disputes resurface, and they are driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Gold and silver prices rise, and the US dollar index and bond yields decline. It is recommended to go long at low points [59][60][62]. - **Copper**: Tariffs cause a short - term setback in copper prices, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. Copper prices decline, and the supply is tight while consumption is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips [64][65][67]. - **Alumina**: The weak trend due to supply - demand surplus remains unchanged. The price of alumina declines, and the supply exceeds demand. It is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating and bottom - grinding trend [69][70][71]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Weakens with the increase in tariff policies, but the scrap aluminum price may be relatively firm. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy declines. The impact of tariffs is expected to be less severe than in April. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent policies [74][75]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The short - term volatility increases due to panic sentiment, and the medium - term bullish trend remains unchanged. The price of electrolytic aluminum declines. The impact of tariffs is limited, and the medium - term price may strengthen [75][76][78]. - **Zinc**: There is obvious support below, and the zinc price may rebound. The domestic zinc price is under pressure, and the overseas price is strong. It is recommended to close out profitable short positions and go short again at high points [79][80][82]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are both weak, and be wary of the lead price falling after rising. The lead price rises, and the supply may increase in the second half of October. It is recommended to be cautious as the price may fall after rising [83][84][87]. - **Nickel**: Volatility increases, and the price center moves down. The LME nickel price declines, and the inventory increases. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to decline [88][89][91]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillates downward. The stainless steel inventory increases, and the price is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [92][93][95]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: Go long at the lower end of the range. Some silicon plants experience production disruptions, and the demand is strong in the short term. It is recommended to go long near the low point of the September disk [95][96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - side expectations are intertwined with weak reality. The US government cancels some energy projects. The polysilicon market is affected by production increases and potential cuts [97][98].